December 16-31, 2016
Pakistan
Domestic Terrorism
The one man judicial commission headed by a serving Supreme Court judge, Qazi Faez Isa, investigating the bomb blast in Quetta civil hospital which virtually wiped out the entire top rung of lawyers in the restive province of Balochistan, released its 110-page report which was a scathingly indicting of not just Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan but also rest of the security system for failing to protect the lives and properties of citizens.
Nisar was blamed for hobnobbing with leaders of banned organisations and for needless bureaucratic delay in responding to Balochistan government’s request to ban terror groups like Jamaatul Ahrar and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi al Almi which had claimed responsibility for many terrorist attacks. He was also accused of promoting a culture wherein officials in the interior ministry were more interested in serving the minister than in serving the people of the country. Little surprise then that the report highlighted the failure of the interior ministry in combating terrorism. The report also blasted top ministers in the Balochistan government – including the Chief Minister and Home Minister – for making irresponsible statements after the attack that only added to confusion and distracted the investigation.
Expectedly, the report led to a storm of demands from the opposition for the resignation of the Interior Minister, who characteristically remained arrogant and unrepentant and called the report ‘one-sided’. He also declared that he would challenge the report at every available forum. Independent analysts and observers however have lauded the report and said that it pretty much sums up the lacunae that dog Pakistan’s fight against terrorism.
Asif Zardari Returns, Decides to Enter Parliament along with Son
After having spent around 18 months in what many call ‘self-exile’, the former President and co-Chairperson of Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP), Asif Zardari, finally decided to return to Pakistan. Zardari had left Pakistan in a bit of hurry after he made a bombastic speech in which he threatened to put the army in its place. The speech was made at a time when it seemed the army was breathing down his neck and was likely to arrest him along with some of his cronies accusing them of corruption and links with terrorism. With a new army chief in place, Zardari reportedly sought some assurances from both the civilian government and the military top brass before deciding that ‘his health permitted him’ to return to Pakistan! While it seems that the new military dispensation is no longer drawing a connection between terrorism and corruption by politicians, on the day Zardari returned, the Pakistan army run paramilitary force, Pakistan Rangers, which virtually rules the roost in Karachi, raided the offices of a close friend of Zardari and recovered a large cache of arms. This was seen as a sign from the military. The fact that the top military officials in Karachi at the time when the heat had been turned on Zardari, have now been elevated and occupy the pivotal posts of Chief of General Staff and Director General, Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), suggests that it will not all be easy going for Zardari and Co., even less so because the new army chief has made it clear that Karachi will remain a priority for him.
Politically, Zardari’s return is unlikely to change the fortunes of the PPP which is virtually extinct everywhere in Pakistan except for rural Sindh. Although on his return he made some tough noises against Nawaz Sharif, there is a general sense that PPP just doesn’t have what it takes to mount a solid opposition movement that can bring the government under pressure, much less bring it down. The PPP had for months been threatening a movement against the government if it didn’t give in on its four demands related to, among other things, foreign policy, Panama Papers issue. The deadline set by the PPP was December 27. Asif Zardari promised that he would deliver ‘good news’ on this day, which many thought would be about an agitation programme. But the ‘good news’ was that he and his son, who is trying to re-organise the partly (even if this is from the drawing room of his house) would enter the National Assembly - quite an anti-climax and indicative of the sheer lack of ideas and imagination in the PPP. Given how low the stock of the party is outside rural Sindh all that is possible is that Asif Zardari uses his negotiating skills to try and cobble together some sort of joint opposition front against the government going into the next general elections in 2018.
New Projects, More Investment in CPEC
China and Pakistan concluded the 6th meeting of the Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) – the apex planning body for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – in Beijing. The meeting was not just to do a stock-taking of the progress of the CPEC projects already in the pipeline but also aimed at trying to end the inter-provincial tussle over the route of the CPEC as well as the projects that are being set up under the aegis of CPEC. This was one of the main reasons why all the Chief Ministers (barring the Punjab CM) accompanied the Pakistani CPEC point man, Ahsan Iqbal, for the meeting. For now at least it appears as though the Chief Ministers from the smaller provinces have returned satisfied after having got an in-principle approval from the Chinese for a number of high profile projects that would be funded and constructed in their provinces.
The meeting approved new projects – including setting up of 9 industrial zones in various provinces, 3 mega projects in Sindh (Karachi Circular Railway for urban transport, a power project and seaport at Keti Bunder and a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) at Dhabeji, additional berths in Gwadar port, a mass transit system in Quetta, a 4000 mw $1.5 billion power transmission project, road, mass transit and power plant projects in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and a Peshwar-Karachi railway line – which raises the total investment by China in CPEC from $46 billion to $ 54 billion and could go up to even $ 60 billion if all the projects approved in principle get the final nod after their feasibility is completed. Most importantly, there were reports that China has agreed to bolster Pakistan's water security by supporting the Diamer-Bhasha dam project which is currently estimated to cost $ 14 billion.
Islamists Force Re-think on Forced Conversion bill
Within days of passing a very progressive law that banned forced conversions to Islam, the Sindh government seemed to be buckling under the pressure of Islamist parties and groups and announced that it was reviewing some of the clauses of the bill. The Islamists has also issued threats to officials and legislators who were involved in the framing of the bill, and the failure of the government to crackdown on those hurling threats of violence was a sign of the government’s impotence before the Islamists.
Afghanistan
Russia Stages Trilateral Talks on Afghanistan without Afghan Participation
The Afghan government, quite understandably, reacted very adversely to the trilateral meeting organised in Moscow between Russia, China and Pakistan to discuss Afghanistan and its future. In a statement the Afghan foreign ministry spokesman said that “talking on Afghanistan without consulting the country raises serious questions” and sought an explanation for the reasons for the meeting from the three countries. The Spokesman of the Afghan President said that Afghanistan found it unacceptable that other countries decide matters about Afghanistan while excluding the Afghan government. Members of the Afghan parliament called the meeting an “obvious interference” in the internal affairs of Afghanistan.
At the meeting itself – the third such meeting but the first one that was publicly disclosed – it was decided that henceforth Afghanistan would also be invited to join in the consultations. The focus of the meeting was on the emerging threat from the Islamic State in Afghanistan and how the regional countries can cooperate to prevent the rise of the IS. Russia was reportedly very keen to also include Iran in future meetings. The three countries “reiterated their support for the reconciliation process in Afghanistan” but also declared that they would adopt a ‘flexible approach’ on the issue of de-listing of Taliban from the UN sanctions list, which was a clear rebuff to the Afghan government which recently had sought listing of the Taliban chief, Maulvi Haibatullah, to the sanctions list. Expectedly enough, the Taliban welcomed the implicit recognition accorded to the ‘Islamic Emirate’ by both Russia and China.
Clearly, a new entente is developing between Russia, China and Pakistan on Afghanistan which hardly augurs well not just for Afghanistan but also for the US and India which have a vital interest in seeing the Afghan government survive and the Taliban kept out from exercising any power in Afghanistan. The Russians however seem convinced that the Taliban are a ‘local force’ which can effectively deal with the IS, which is seen as the real threat to the security and stability of Russia and its near-abroad, especially Central Asia. As a wag puts it, the Russians depending on the Taliban against the IS is quite like someone seeking to support Mussolini to fight the Hitler’s Nazis. This is more so because every available evidence from the ground suggests that the Taliban are an integral part of the global jihadist movement and once they gain power, there is every chance of their patronising many of the Islamist terror groups which pose a clear and present danger to both Christian Russia and non-believer China.
Meanwhile, the Taliban have rebuffed yet another UN call for engaging in direct peace talks with the Afghan government under the pretext that “any talk about peace and reconciliation is meaningless” in the presence of “foreign occupation forces”.
Nepal
Political Uncertainty Continues over Constitution Amendment
In an effort to end the ongoing political deadlock over the constitution amendment bill, the second rung leaders of three major political parties are underway through informal consultations. In their view political stalemates should not become a regular feature. Earlier, PM Dahal called upon all major political parties to reach a consensus at an early date. During the last fortnight, the political scenario in Nepal was exceptionally restive and disorderly. Adding fuel to the fire was the deposed king Gyanendra’s statement which came in handy to highlight government’s failure to create a conducive atmosphere for smooth passage of the Constitution Amendment Bill. In one of the public gatherings, the erstwhile king called upon the people of Nepal to save the country which was facing the onslaught on its unity and integrity. The government reacted sharply to this as Dy. PM and Minister for Home Affairs Bimlendra Nidhi, in retaliation, by reopening the case of 2001’s Royal massacre. Nepali Congress ministers Ramesh Lehak, Nabindra Raj Joshi and Hyridaya Ram Thani pressed for early resolution of the deadlock over the Constitution in order to negate such rhetoric from the deposed king. In the given circumstances, if the government takes any action against the king, it will be misconstrued as revenge politics, opening up chances for the veteran politicians and their political parties re-aligning with the deposed king.
To overcome the ongoing political uncertainty, the three major political parties namely, Nepali Congress, CPN (Maoist Centre) and the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN)-United Maoist Leninist (UML) have jointly agreed to announce the poll dates shortly. The main opposition CPN-UML has asked leaders of Nepali Congress and Maoist Centre to go for the elections of restructured local bodies with the local level Restructuring Commission having prepared its report. Nepali Congress (NC) President Deoba has said that NC as the largest party was prepared to go to polls even under the new structure if the government takes the Madhesi parties into confidence. However the party did suggest resolving disputes over the report was necessary as the local residents in many districts were not satisfied with the report.
The Madhesi parties were of the view that elections should be announced only after amending the Constitution. Nevertheless, the parties failed to end obstruction of Parliament by the opposing parties. The UML will not give up the parliamentary blockade until the bill was withdrawn. Efforts are on to reach the end of the political stalemate through a package deal that would include the amendment bill, election related bills and impeachment motion against Karki. There were chances of UML agreeing to the tabling of Amendment Bill if the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP) agreed to the impeachment of Karki. Speaking on behalf of Tarai based Madhes Parties, TMLP Chairman Mahanta Thakur said they have no objection to the “package deal” as long as it ensured amendment to the Constitution. The demand by Madhes basedparties is that the Amendment Bill and the election related Bills should be tabled together.
The government desperately requires a way out of this muddy waters. On the one hand the government has the opposition hell-bent to block the bill while on the other, they have the regional parties declaring that they will take part in the forthcoming elections only if the Constitutional Amendment Bill is endorsed with the necessary charges. PM Dahal is left with very few options. Amid mounting pressure, if he chooses to take UML into confidence he risks losing the support of Madhesi Parties and vice versa.
Nepal, China to Conduct First Ever Joint Military Drill
Beginning altogether a new level of bilateral cooperation, China and Nepal have decide to hold their 1st ever military exercise called “Pratikar I” which will commence from February 10, 2017. This exercise is appaently meant to assist Nepal with counter-terror operations. India, it may be recalled, has been conducting such anti-terror joint exercises annually with Nepal for over a decade. Nepal’s decision to hold a similar exercise with China may have ramifications for its relations with India. The news of Nepal’s proposed joint exercise comes only a month after the visit to Nepal by the former Indian Army Chief Dalbir Singh Suhag which was meant to build warm ties since Prachanda took over and assured Nepal of Indian commitment to capacity building of the Nepalese army.
The Nepal government’s stand is that it can conduct military exercises with other countries without violating its agreements with India. But the upcoming exercise is alarming and unconventional as China’s definition of terrorism covers Tibetan agitators. Sino-Nepal joint military exercise will be of concern to India especially at a time when the Chinese have strengthened their military presence in the Gilgit-Baltistan region in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) as part of its economic corridor with Pakistan. Despite having publicly maintained that it wasn’t an anti-India move, China has shown very little regard for Indian government’s concerns over this corridor which passes through territory that legally belongs to India.
India To Make ‘Special Arrangement to Replace Old Indian Currency Notes in Nepal
India has assured Nepal that it was making “special arrangement” for Nepal to replace the demonetised Indian currency note of 1000 and 500 denominations. A team from India is due to visit Kathmandu to hold consultations with Nepal Rastra Bank officials to finalise the modality of exchanging the old notes. India has already formed an inter-ministerial committee to suggest ways for resolving the problems faced by the diplomatic community and holders of currency in Nepal and Bhutan. Replacement of old notes is likely to take place in the first week of January, 2017. There will also be some provision for exchanging the old notes in Nepal for a limited period. The India government has expressed fear of the demonetised Indian currency entering Nepal from India due to open border. The Nepalese government has requested India to allow exchange of notes up to Rs.25000/-.
Bangladesh
India Eases Visa For Envoy/Government Official’s Family
In a goodwill gesture extended by India, the Bangladesh government officials and diplomats along with their families will not require e-tokens to visit India. From January 1, 2017, spouses and family members of diplomats and official Bangladeshi passport holders can submit their tourist visa application without e-token. This has been welcomed by Bangladesh.
Shoot out at Dhaka’s Ashkona
The police raided a militant hideout in Dhaka last week during which a 14 year old boy Afif Kaderi and a suspected female militant lost their lives. It is however, not yet clear whether they were killed in police action or succumbed injuries as a suicide bomber. If the latter is true, this would be the first known case of female suicide bomber in Bangladesh. Police investigation is on to ascertain the details. The group has been known as “Neo JMB”. Afif Kaderi’s father Tanvir Kaderi also belonged to the Neo JMB group and committed suicide during a raid in Azimpur on September 10, 2016. Government sources believe that two of the Gulshan bakery attack suspects who had played a vital role, namely Major (sacked) Syed Ziaul Haque and Narul Islam Marzan, will be arrested shortly. According to the police, Zia, the alleged chief of the banned militant outfit Ansar-ul-Islam and Marzan is also a top “Neo JMB” leader.
Sri Lanka
Chinese Assistance to Set Up Three Technical Colleges
The Chinese government will be building three state of art super technical colleges in rural areas of Hambanthota, Puttalam and Moneragala. The Chinese government has also agreed to provide all the facilities to accommodate 2000 students at a time at each of the proposed centers.
The increasing Chinese investment in various sectors of Sri Lanka has already been a matter of concern for major countries across the globe, given the non-transparent nature of such prepositions, Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and lack of clarity on Sri Lanka’s role in China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative. Many regional and global powers are alarmed at China’s maritime expansion in the IOR. China has already made huge investments in military and infrastructure sectors of Sri Lanka and this entry in vocational skills sector marks another foray. Moreover, Sri Lanka’s increasing dependence on China is limiting the country’s ability to pursue, what President Sirisena had called, ‘Asia Centric Foreign policy’ in its true spirit.