(October 16-31, 2016)

Pakistan

Imran’s Storm of Protest Ends before Hitting Islamabad

The storm of protest that Imran Khan’s was threatening with ‘lockdown’ of Islamabad until Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif either resigns or accepts an inquiry into the off-shore companies and assets owned by his family members, ended in an anti-climax after the Supreme Court of Pakistan (on November 1) decided to consider forming a commission of inquiry whose terms of reference will either be determined jointly by the government and opposition, or failing that, by the court itself. Imran Khan used the court ruling as a face saver to withdraw his call for shutting down the capital city, and even declared victory. For his part, Nawaz Sharif also accepted the court’s decision.

The Supreme Court ruling has defused the political crisis that seemed to be enveloping Pakistan with Imran Khan on the warpath yet again and the government deciding to use all necessary means to prevent him from gathering crowds in Islamabad. Not only was Imran Khan placed under virtual house arrest with a large police contingent surrounding all approaches to his house, his party workers were arrested from various parts of Punjab to prevent them from mobilising party workers, sympathisers and followers for the ‘Dharna’ in Islamabad. While the crackdown in Punjab seemed to have stymied Imran’s efforts to build a crowd of some 1 million people, Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf (PTI) workers from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa faced no such crackdown and were able to mobilise. But with Nawaz Sharif’s party in power in both the Centre and in Punjab, the PTI workers were not allowed to cross into Punjab. Pitched battles between the police and PTI workers were reported from several places. In a sense, Imran Khan did manage to cut off Islamabad from rest of the country because of the government placing containers on all major routes and roads to obstruct free movement. In addition, there was the usual police strong-arm tactics against PTI workers to deter them from entering Islamabad. Under the circumstances, it did seem as though Imran Khan’s plan to shut down the capital would end up as a damp squib.

It is of course another matter that the government crackdown was also being seen as a sign of panic and desperation. The air in Islamabad was rife with conspiracy theories and talk of ‘third umpire’ or ‘third force’ (read army) intervening either directly or indirectly. Many analysts feared that with Imran Khan having decided to ‘fight to the finish’, he would stop at nothing less than seeing Nawaz Sharif’s back. This would only become possible if he could create complete chaos and anarchy in the capital city, provoking the police to resort to firing at crowds to control them. Blood on the streets would then force the hand of the military to step in to restore order. And since there were reports of a serious civil-military divide, among other things over the controversial report in the Dawn newspaper, the army’s intervention would mean the end of Nawaz Sharif. For now, however, with the threat of a breakdown in law and order having receded, there is likely to be an uneasy political calm. All eyes would now be on the Supreme Court proceedings in the Panama Papers leaks case and the next round is likely to be fought in the courts rather than on the streets.

Minister Sacrificed to Propitiate the Military

The controversial story in the Dawn newspaper has claimed its first victim in Pervaiz Rashid, the Information Minister and close confidant of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Although there is no evidence in public domain that he was in any way responsible for ‘feeding’ the story, the official explanation was that he had been asked to step down to facilitate an independent inquiry into the entire affair. According to the Interior Minister, Rashid was held responsible for the lapse of not stopping the story from being published!

The military had quite clearly latched on to the story to push the civilian government on the back-foot. That pressure was ratcheted up by the army at a time when Imran Khan was going on the warpath, was quite clearly aimed at getting the government to give in to some of the demands of the army. The grapevine has it that these demands had to do with giving army a free-hand in Punjab, giving it a formal role in decision-making and execution of the CPEC projects, and giving the current army chief a decisive say in choice of his successor. According to reports, Gen Raheel Sharif met the PM one-on-one to apprise him of the strong sentiment in the army over the Dawn story. He is believed to have demanded a thorough investigation into the Dawn story and exposing the people responsible for feeding the ‘fake and fabricated’ story. Apparently the PM assured the army chief of action against those responsible. A few days after this meeting, the Punjab Chief Minister, Interior minister and Finance minister ‘called on’ the army chief at his residence to brief him on the progress of the investigation. A couple of days later, Pervaiz Rashid, was asked to step down.

But the ouster of the information minister is not likely to be the end of the story. A joint investigation team comprising ISI, IB and MI officers has been formed to conduct investigations and ‘to apportion blame’. There are apprehensions that the army will probably force the government to sacrifice a couple of more people before it is ready to let go of the matter. But in the process, the army would have dealt a severe blow to the civilians who were trying to claw space from the overbearing military establishment.

Quetta Police Training Centre Attacked, 64 Killed

Three heavily armed terrorists stormed the Police Training Centre in Quetta and killed 64 people, including an army officer and a para-military force personnel. The terror attack was claimed by the Islamic State, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi al Almi and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Hakimullah Mehsud group. Although law enforcement agencies have held the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi al Almi responsible for the attack, the IS posted pictures of the three terrorists on the internet while claiming responsibility for the attack. Security analysts believe that the attack was in all likelihood jointly planned and executed by different groups, all of which are tied to each other. The Pakistani officials were quick to point fingers at Afghanistan on basis of intercepted conversations of terrorists with their handlers in Afghanistan.

Despite its ghastliness, the Quetta attack faded out of public discourse within 36 hours with the media focus turning to political circus in Islamabad. There was of course the usual complement of high level meetings of the apex committee in Balochistan which was attended by the PM and army chief (apparently even during this meeting the army chief had raised the matter of Dawn story with the PM!) and in Sindh, where government officials believe that terrorists are coming from safe havens and bases in Balochistan to strike in the province. There was also the usual talk of reinvigorating the much-vaunted National Action Plan.

India-Pakistan Spy Games and Cross-Line of Control Shelling

Diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan took a further dip after India caught a Pakistani High Commission staffer (a serving army personnel) along with his Indian agents indulging in espionage. Although the staffer was released after he disclosed his identity, he was declared Persona Non-Grata and expelled. As expected, Pakistan retaliated by expelling an Indian staffer from Islamabad. Later, reports in the Pakistani media revealed that Pakistan was planning to withdraw four other diplomats who had been named by the Pakistan HC staffer during his brief interrogation.

Meanwhile, ever since the surgical strikes by India, conditions along the LoC and International Border in Jammu and Kashmir have deteriorated sharply with incessant ceasefire violations by Pakistan. Indian retaliation against Pakistan army posts has been swift and robust. However, Pakistanis have been targeting civilians on the Indian side and casualties have been rising. On the Pakistani side also, there are claims of civilian casualties. The Pakistanis however deny Indian assertions of security force personnel casualties. The DGMO hotline, which had been used in the past to defuse matters and restore normalcy, hasn’t been effective so far in ending ceasefire violations. On the Indian side, the security forces are seething with rage after the beheading of a soldier by one of the Border Action Teams of Pakistan. In order to exact retribution, a massive ‘fire assault’ was unleashed and four Pakistani posts were destroyed in the Keran sector.

Afghanistan

Taliban Talk to Kabul, Report to Islamabad

Reports that two rounds of secret talks were held in Doha between top Taliban representatives (which included Mullah Abdul Mannan Akhund, the brother of Mullah Omar) and government officials came as a surprise in Pakistan. Although the Afghan President’s office and the High Peace council denied any knowledge of the talks, and the Taliban spokesman (who is believed to be based in Pakistan) flatly denied any talks with the Kabul government, it was reported that at least one round of talks was held between Akhund and the National Director of Security (NDS) chief, Masoom Stanekzai. The talks were described as going positively. Interestingly, there was no Pakistani presence in the talks, although an American official was present. The initial report on the talks speaks of the growing distance between the Taliban and Pakistan, but this needs to be taken with more than a pinch of salt especially since soon after the talks, a Taliban delegation made a bee-line to ‘brief’ the Pakistanis about what happened in Doha. Whether this was done because of the outing of the meeting, or was done because the Taliban want to keep Pakistan in the loop even as they negotiate on their own, isn’t clear. Interestingly, when the news broke of a Taliban delegation in Pakistan, the Advisor on Foreign Affairs and de facto foreign minister of Pakistan, Sartaj Aziz, initially claimed he wasn’t aware of the presence of any Taliban delegation. A day later he, however, confirmed the visit!

There is some speculation that the Taliban delegation’s visit to Pakistan was a separate track that the Pakistanis were pursuing in order the get a firmer control over the Taliban. This speculation is being fuelled by stories of the resentment in Taliban ranks over the over-bearing attitude of the Pakistanis. There are also reports that recent Pakistani arrests of senior Taliban leaders and the ‘squeeze’ on the Taliban to take their families and leave Pakistan is part of the Pakistani effort to force the Taliban to enter into peace talks with Kabul. The ostensible reason for this is the increasing pressure on Pakistan from the US and even China. It is however also possible that the Pakistani squeeze is to warn the Taliban of consequences if they keep Pakistan out of the loop in any peace negotiations with Kabul and Washington. Any optimism over the talks would not just be pre-mature but also highly misplaced because of the continuing offensive of the Taliban inside Afghanistan. At a time when Afghan National Army soldiers have not just been abandoning their posts but also have been surrendering en masse before the Taliban and handing over their bases, there is very little incentive for the Taliban to agree to any of the basic demands of the Afghan government.

Meanwhile, amidst reports that the Islamic State is gradually expanding its footprint in Afghanistan – First Vice President Abdul Rashid Dostum has claimed that the IS plans to deploy around 7000 foreign militants in Northern Afghanistan and the commander of US troops in Afghanistan, Gen John Nicholson, saying that the Islamic State (IS) was trying to establish its Caliphate inside Afghanistan – IS terrorists kidnapped and massacred 30 civilians in the Ghor province.

Nepal

PM Dahal Meets Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Goa:

Prime Mminister Pushpa Kamal Dahal visited Goa (India) to attend the BRICS–BIMSTEC Outreach Summit held on Oct. 15/16, 2016. On the side lines of Outreach Summit, PM Dahal held bilateral meeting with PM Modi during which the two leaders reviewed various issues and agreed to put emphasis on implementing agreements reached during Dahal’s state visit to India in September 2016.The two prime ministers also agreed to address the outstanding issues during the Joint Commission meeting between their respective foreign ministersto be held on October 27 and 28. The bilateral meet also focused on making the Foreign Ministerial mechanism more active.

PM Dahal stressed on solving the problems of anti-dumping. He also informed the Indian PM that efforts were on to take on board the groups dissatisfied with some contents of the constitution. In response, Indian PM Modi said the bilateral agreements would be implemented. He also expressed his belief that Nepal would successfully keep board all sides together relating to the constitution. Foreign Minister Dr Mahat and India’s Minister for External Affairs, Sushma Swaraj along with senior officials of the two countries were present during the meeting. Some specific issues such as trade barriers faced by Nepali traders while exporting goods to India, Nepal government’s efforts to accommodate aspirations of all sections of the society in the process of the implementation of the new constitution, creating conducive atmosphere for holding the elections, holding meeting of the National Development Problem Resolution Committee to implement the projects of top priority, inspection of Sikta Irrigation, Ranijanara Irrigation, Melanchi Drinking Water, were discussed.

In a bilateral meet with Chinese President Xi, the leaders focussed on enhancing connectivity between Nepal and China. Focus was on road and rail connectivity, and on finalizing of the protocol of the Trade and Transit agreements.

In another significant development, at the initiative of PM Dahal, an impromptu trilateral meeting between Dahal, PM Modi and President XiJinping, was also held on the 16th. During the trilateral meeting, PM Dahal referred to his previous tenure as the head of the government of Nepal during which he had emphasized on the need of tri-party strategic understanding among the three countries, arguing that Nepal lies in between two giant neighbors and it would like to reap benefits of this geographical specialty by working as a dynamic bridge between the two countries. In response, the Indian Prime Minister and the Chinese President welcomed the proposal floated by Nepal. PM Dahal said Nepal wants to establish balanced, friendly, and strategic relationships with both the neighbors for itself to reach its development goal. On the occasion, Chinese President Xi said Nepal could serve as a bridge between India and China. Likewise, Indian PM Modi acknowledged there are geographical, emotional, and cultural relations between India, Nepal and China.

In his address to the BRICS-BIMSTEC leaders, PM Dahal again focussed on connectivity with other nations as the prime requisite for Nepal as it was a land locked country. He underscored energy cooperation and harnessing of diverse sources of energy in the region.

Impeachment Motion against CIAA Chief Lokman Karki

Nepalese Parliament on the 25^th of October started initial discussion on an impeachment motion against Chief the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) Lokmansingh Karki. Earlier, 157 law makers from the governing Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) (Maoist Centre) and the main opposition CPN – Unified Maoist-Leninist (UML) had registered the motion at the parliament’s secretariat, seeking to impeach Karki. In the meantime, Lokman Karki remains suspended as the chief of CIAA. ‘Maoist Centre’ law maker Mahendra Bahadur Shahi presented several reasons that prompted the Maoist Centre and the UML to initiate the impeachment process against the Karki for using the state machinery including its intelligence wing to fulfil his personal interests. He has urged all parties to join hands to endorse the motion. Seconding the motion, UML Chief Whip Bhanu Bhakta Dhakal said that Karki’s attack on the parliamentary supremacy were the reasons that compelled the party to move the impeachment motion against him.

Till last reports, top leaders of the three major political parties reached an agreement to conclude the impeachment motion against Karki through consensus. The Nepali Congress, CPN (Maoist Centre) and main opposition CPN-UML have agreed to work in coordination to resolve the impeachment motion.

Former King Gyandendra Warns of Popular Revolt if Political Instability Continues

Addressing the gathering at an International Virat Hindu Mahasammelan in Kathmandu, former king Gyanendra said that ‘politics of negation could promote marginalization and fuel revolt. Prohibitory politics gives rise to disequilibrium in the country. This results is marginalization and subsequent revolt’. He lamented ‘foreign intervention in Nepalese politics and the rise of pessimism’ among the citizens. The former King said that lasting peace in Nepal was possible if the country succeeded in upholding its unique identity and everlasting cultural traditions. A statement issued by Shah’s Secretariat quoted the former King as saying, “Nepal has a history of never having been subjugated. Nepal has been the synonym of world peace, spirituality and tolerance. We must look back and rethink why and how have we become what we are today”. This was the former monarch’s first public address after the abolition and monarchy in 2008.

Nepal, India Agree to Accelerate 7 Projects