January, 1 – 15, 2017

IRAN, WEST ASIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Libya

General Haftar, Libya’s military commander, has in a span of three months, paid an official visit to Moscow and had a video conference discussion with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, when he visited Russia's aircraft carrier named Admiral Kuznetsov. According to a Libyan news source, Khalifa Haftar has claimed that Russia is going to seek to end an arms embargo against Libya and could supply weapons to his Operation Dignity (which supports a rival administration to the UN-backed unity government based in the east – the House of Representatives). He also said that Moscow has promised Libya weapons once the UN embargo ends.General Haftar head the Libyan National Army and is at logger’s head with the UN backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. Libya’s eastern parliament has consistently rejected the UN backed GNA. Thus, Russia’s involvement in supplying arms can push for a continued, even escalated, war in Libya since the country lacks unity government at this point.

Syria

Russia has begun scaling down its military involvement Syria with the removal of its sole aircraft carrier from the conflict zone. President Vladimir Putin on 29 December 2016 announced a ceasefire between government and rebel forces. Russian Commander in Syria, Andrei Kartapolov, has claimed that Russia still had sufficient air defence capabilities in Syria such as the S-300 and S-400 systems deployed in the war-torn country. This could mean that Russia is not going to withdraw itself completely from the region just yet.

Israel – Palestine

An upcoming conference in Paris aimed at ways of restarting the stalled Israeli- Palestinian peace efforts on 22 January 2017. During the conference, an effort will be made to lay down an international framework for the two state solution. It aims to ensure the support of the international community for the two state solution as ground work for future direct negotiation. Even though the two countries will not be part of the Israel and Palestine will not be part of the conference but are invited by President Hollande to inform them of the conclusion. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has, however, declined the invitation calling it ‘rigged’. It can be argued, in lieu of the current developments in the region, the non- resolution of the Israel- Palestine conflict will hamper peace and stability in the region and Netanyahu’s refusal to attend the conference might create further road blocks in the progress of establishing the two - state solution.

CAR

Kazakhstan Opens a New Page in Foreign Policy

Two important events of this fortnight have turned a page in Kazakhstan’s foreign policy. Firstly, Kazakhstan has assumed the non-permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for the tenure of 2017-18. Along with Kazakhstan, Bolivia, Italy, Sweden and Ethiopia have also joined the UNSC as non-permanent members (NPMs). They were elected by the UN General Assembly on 28 June 2016. Kazakhstan received 138 votes and won from the group of Asia-Pacific states. It has become the first Central Asian Republic (CAR) to join the UNSC.

Secondly, on the eve of the New Year, President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev appointed Kairat Abdrakhmanov as Minister of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of Kazakhstan. Mr. Abdrakhmanov served as Kazakhstan’s permanent representative to the UN for past 3 years, and played a significant role in electing the country as NPM of the UNSC. His appointment as the MFA signifies how the largest CAR is taking on regional and global challenges with a fresh approach.

Kazakhstan is a geo-politically significant country. Apart from being ninth largest country of the world, it is world’s largest landlocked country. It shares border with Russia, China and three CARs of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan; it is also a Caspian Sea littoral state. Kazakhstan is endowed with abundant natural resources, especially crude oil and Uranium, which is vital in the field of energy security. Kazakhstan, along with other countries of the region, is building a complex web of transport corridors and energy pipelines along the Eurasian region. Moreover, through ‘multi-vector’ foreign policy, it has nurtured close ties with most countries in the world.

Kazakhstan, in last 25 years, has emerged as a responsible player in the regional and world politics. After transferring all its Soviet-era nuclear weapons to Russia and closing down the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, Kazakhstan became an active leader in the field of nuclear disarmament. It has also been a contributor in the dialogue of cultures, religions and civilization, through initiatives such as Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) and Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions. Apart from constructive participation in the multilateral organizations like OSCE, CIS, CSTO, EEU, OIC, SCO and the Turkish Council, Kazakhstan is playing key role in resolving the conflicts in Ukraine, Afghanistan and Syria.

Kazakhstan’s membership in the UNSC is likely to attract the attention of the Council to developmental challenges and security issues in the Central Asian region. Kazakhstan is entrusted the chairmanship of two important committees, on Eritrea and Somalia, and on combating international terrorism. For UNSC, Kazakhstan has set its priority areas as energy, water and food security, nuclear non-proliferation, peaceful settlement of conflicts, and combating terrorism and extremism. Even though a symbolic post with limited powers, NPM will boost Kazakhstan’s external engagements. Along with its performance in the UNSC, country’s foreign policy will be at stake in upcoming international event in Astana, including proposed talks on Syria, and SCO and OIC summits. In this regard, 2017 is a vital year for Kazakhstan's foreign affairs.

Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev visits China

President of the Kyrgyz Republic Almazbek Atambayev paid a working visit to People’s Republic of China (PRC) from 6-8 January. This visit came on the occasion of 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. President Atambayev and his Chinese counterpart Mr. Xi Jinping discussed topical issues of the Kyrgyz-Chinese relations including plans to expand economic cooperation, implementation of joint projects and investment activities. They also exchanged views on issues of international and regional significance, especially terrorism, extremism and separatism.

Over last 25 years, Kyrgyz-China bilateral relationship has grown in form and substance. It was upgraded to Strategic Partnership in 2013 during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Bishkek. The relations are underlined by political dialogue, economic interdependence, cultural cooperation and convergence of views on international issues. The bilateral links are also supported by multilateral cooperation mainly through the SCO framework. In 2016, leaders of the two republics met on several occasions leading to heightened political engagement.

Kyrgyzstan is one of the 3 CARs that share border with China. Its significance for China comes from two aspects. On one hand, Kyrgyzstan is important for enhancing connectivity with Eurasia in general and for its Belt and Road Initiative in particular. Because of this, Chinese government is pouring in huge investments in the Kyrgyz Republic in various fields like rail and road construction, hydro power sector and infrastructure development. On the other hand, China is cautious about ethno-linguistic spillovers among Turkic peoples across borders, and is concerned about Uighur separatist activities in its Xinjiang province bordering Kyrgyzstan. For this reason, China is closely cooperating with the Kyrgyz republic and other CARs for combating terrorism and separatism.

AFRICA

State Visit of President of Kenya to India

President of Kenya His Excellency Uhuru Kenyatta paid a State Visit to India from 10-12 January 2017 on an invitation extended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The two leaders held official talks on 11 January in New Delhi. This is the First State visit from Kenya to India, since 1981. Earlier, President Kenyatta attended the Vibrant Gujarat Summit 2017 on 10 January. The discussion of Prime Minister Modi and President Kenyatta were held on key elements of bilateral relationship including increasing cooperation in defence and maritime security, enhancing trade and investment relationship and counter-terrorism. The Key sectors discussed were maritime security and surveillance, counter-terrorism, disrupting terrorist networks, counter-narcotics and human trafficking, agriculture, health, supporting Kenya’s development through Lines of Credit, digital and cash-less economy, e-Governance, procurement of pulses, sports, renewable energy especially International Solar Alliance, blue economy, comprehensive convention on terrorism and reforms of international institutions including the United Nations. Various statements/MOUs exchanged/issued during the visit included like they came up with a Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in the agriculture sector and allied sector. Also, Line of Credit for US$100 million for agricultural mechanisation was provided as assistance to the country. Both leaders acknowledged the unique nature of India-Kenya relationship and stressed the importance of continuing the momentum of high level exchanges and a strong development partnership delivering benefits, jobs and win-win solutions for people in both countries and in the Indian Ocean region.

His Excellency Paul Kagame, President of Rwanda's Visit to India

President of Rwanda His Excellency Paul Kagame paid visit to India from 9-11January, 2017. He was invited by the Prime Minister of India Mr Narendra Modi. President Kagame was accompanied by senior officials and a business delegation. This was the first official visit of President Kagame’s to India. Bilateral trade between India and Rwanda has doubled in the past 5 years. PM Modi and President Kagame, discussed issues covering bilateral relations and India’s increasing engagements as a development partner for Africa was discussed. India has offered Rawanda - LOCs and grants the country's development. Grant of US$ 2 million of medicines and cash grant of US$ 1 million for purchase of medical equipment was announced. The Government of India has also assisted Line of Credit of US$ 81 million for a road project. Commencement of direct flights between Kigali and Mumbai by Rwanda Air has been announced too. During the visit the following documents were issued/exchanged a)Declaration of Strategic Partnership between India and Rwanda, b)Joint Statement, c) Signing of Framework Agreement on International Solar Alliance by Republic of Rwanda, and d) Memorandum of Understanding between Rwanda Police and Gujarat Forensic Sciences University.