Fortnightly Review & Analysis – ASEAN, Indo-Pacific, East Asia, Japan & China (Vol 1 Issue X)

(November 01-15, 2016)

ASEAN

Myanmar

Myanmar: Aung San Suu Kyi visits Japan

Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi visited Japan in first week of November with the main agenda of seeking investment and aid. Suu Kyi's five-day visit to Japan comes after her earlier trips to China, the United States and India. Japan has been keen to invest in Myanmar's extensive infrastructure and meet her development needs. Japan on its part has not imposed any economic sanctions like what the US had done. At present Japan has a significant presence in Myanmar in the shape of the Japan-led Thilawa Special Economic Zone. Thilawa, a 6,200 acre (2,500-hectare) industrial project on the outskirts of Yangon, the country's largest city, is about to begin its second phase of development in November. Suu Kyi also met Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who pledged to provide 7.73 billion USD in loans for Myanmar in the next five years to help the country achieve peace and develop the economy.

Myanmar Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services Visits China

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services, visited China and met with his counterpart as also the Chinese President Xi Jinping, on November 1. The General said that “We are trying to end decades-long civil war with ethnic armed groups in order to see a genuine peace. We thank China for its assistances of all forms”. Min Aung Hlaing said that bilateral cooperation is of great importance and that border cooperation can widen into administrative and economic sectors. He added that apart from the border trade, if regular trade is enhanced, it will be more beneficial to both countries. “Both countries are seeing success as we are cooperating in border peace and stability; that we want to promote military and defence cooperation between the two armies; and that we would like to boost existing friendship,” he said.

In another development Gen. Hlaing was also invited in first week of November by European Union Military Committee where he defended Myanmar military’s political role giving historical background of military’s involvement in civil affairs.

Malaysia

Malaysian PM Najib’s Visit to China

Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak visited China for his third official visit as PM from October 31- November 6. Chinese trade and investment is crucial at a time when Najib needs a further boost in the Malaysian economy so as to enhance his performance legitimacy to govern the country and bolster the chances of his returning to power in 2018. This is even more imminent after the scandal of billions being siphoned off from state development fund 1 Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) tarnished his reputation and triggered widespread calls at home and abroad for his resignation.

The six day visit led to US$ 34 billion of government-to-government deals, as well as corporate business agreements including as many as 14 MoUs between Malaysia and China. Malaysia also finalized its first significant defense deal with China of purchase of four littoral mission ships from China for just $100 million each. Along with strategic underpinnings, a 13% cut to US$ 3.6 billion in Malaysia's 2017 defense budget may be responsible for the decision to purchase from China. Chinese ships cost significantly less than similar French-made ships that are $400 million each. Other major Chinese investments include the East Coast Rail Line (ECRL). The highly publicized high-speed rail project linking Kuala Lumpur and Singapore is also expected to be handed to Chinese which is worth US$15 billion.

Najib’s visit met with criticism back in Malaysia. With its recent cash diplomacy, Beijing is seeking to reach out following Hague International tribunal ruling on the South China Sea dispute in July this year. Najib’s visit is highly significant in the recent flurry of diplomatic visits by Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia and Myanmar to China especially the high profile swing by Philippines Duterte from the US to China and indicates hedging by ASEAN states in view of transforming balance of power in Asia.

Thailand

Revised Charter of Thai Constitution submitted for Royal Endorsement

The Government of Thailand submitted the revised preamble for royal endorsement. It is 20th constitution of Thailand since 1932. The revised draft has two changes to address the current situation emerged after the demise of King Bhumibol Adulyadej. The new legislation would empower election commission to investigate allegations of donations made to political parties for government posts. After credible evidence the EC can direct the case to Constitutional Court to disband the parties involved. The monarch or regent has 90 days to approve the constitution. As per the preparations made by the Thai government and its election roadmap the promulgation of the constitution was expected this year ahead of general elections scheduled by the end of next year. However, due to one mourning period declared after the death of King Bhumibol, the elections might be delayed until early 2018. The actual process of facilitating civilian rule was enshrined in the interim constitution of 2007, followed by a draft charter developed by the Constitution Drafting Commission and endorsed by a popular vote in referendum before being revised in accordance with the Constitutional Court’s advice. In this direction, Royal endorsement for the supreme law can be seen as a final step which may turn a reality in upcoming weeks. This complexity brought Thailand to the crossroads and the ambiguity will remain till the future of the constitution is finalized.

Singapore

The Indian Navy and the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN) have conducted 23rd edition of the annual Singapore-Indian Maritime Bilateral Exercise (SIMBEX) in India from 01 to 04 November. Indian Navy deployed its destroyer INS Ranvijay with an Aloutte III helicopter and a corvette INS Kamorta and two Hawk aircrafts. Indian Navy also deployed its Kilo Class submarine. From RSN deployed two of its maritime patrol aircraft alongside its stealth frigate RSS Formadable and RAF’s Fokker-50 maritime patrol aircraft. The harbour phase of the SIMBEX 2016 was held at Visakhapatnam Naval Base and the sea phase was conducted at the Bay of Bengal. Since its beginning in 1994, SIMBEX has expanded its scope beyond anti-submarine warfare missions to add elements of maritime security, anti-air and anti-surface warfare operations.

Indonesia

Jakarta Simmering

Violent clashes erupted in Jakarta on November 4 as protesters demanding the ouster of the city's governor who has been accused of blasphemy against Muslims clashed with the police. Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, commonly known as Ahok, is alleged to have insulted Islam by criticizing his opponents' use of a Quranic verse in a stump speech. Ahok is a member of Indonesia's Christian minority and the first ethnic Chinese to hold the post of Jakarta governor. Ahok is a key ally of President Joko Widodo and was his deputy when he was the governor of Jakarta. However, in a meeting with the leaders of Muhammadiyah, a major non-governmental Islamic organization on November 8, Joko Widodo distanced himself from Ahok. Ahok is also the frontrunner in the 2017 gubernatorial race.

Following the violent protest that erupted in Jakarta, Indonesian President Joko Widodo postponed his trip to Australia. Bilateral relations between Indonesia and Australia have suffered repeated hits in recent years. Diplomatic spats between the two countries involving phone-tapping scandal on Susilo’s wife, Canberra’s controversial policy of turning back boats of refugees with Australian maritime patrols and pushing those boats back into Indonesian waters have led to low levels of trade and Australian foreign direct investment into Indonesia.

Other Issues

India and RCEP: The Final Frontier

The trade ministers of the 16-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement including ASEAN and its six FTA partners met in Cebu, Philippines on November 4. A “no early harvest” policy was adopted following India’s insistence. This means agreements on all the three pillars of negotiations — goods, services and investment — have to be implemented only as a package, and not one at a time. Initially, India had offered to abolish 80% of tariff lines for 10 ASEAN members, 65% of tariff lines for Japan and South Korea and 42.5% for China, Australia and New Zealand. In return, while South Korea and Japan were willing to offer 80% tariff elimination for Indian goods, China was ready to remove only 42.5% tariff lines. Australia and New Zealand offered to abolish 80% and 65%, respectively, of tariff lines for merchandise imports from India.

India has offered to raise its tariff cut from the initial offer of 42.5% for China to 65%. Also, the period for phasing out tariff lines for imports from China will be 20-30 years to ensure Indian industry has enough time to improve its competitiveness. India has a massive goods trade deficit of almost $53 billion with China in 2015-16. India is seeking liberalization in at least 120 areas in Mode 1 (cross-border trade) and Mode 2 (consumption abroad) services, while some nations are willing to go up to only 100. Similarly, negotiations for further liberalizing trade in Mode 3 (commercial presence, mainly FDI) are yet to pick up pace. Importantly, offers on liberalizing Mode 4 — which is of immense importance to India, as it covers the movement of skilled professionals — has barely started. The 16th round of RCEP negotiation will be held from December 6-10 in Indonesia.

ASEAN Disaster Management Declaration Issued in New Delhi

The Asian Ministerial Conference for Disaster Risk Reduction in New Delhi on November 4 announced full scale monitoring of the world’s global plan under Sendai Framework for reducing disaster losses will get underway in 2020. The ASEAN Secretariat, in partnership with India’s Ministry of Home Affairs and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) launched the ASEAN Declaration “One ASEAN, One Response: ASEAN Responding to Disasters as One in the Region and Outside the Region”. Adopted by the Heads of State/Government during the ASEAN Summit in Vientiane in September 2016, the ASEAN Declaration of “One ASEAN, One Response: ASEAN Responding to Disasters as One in the Region and Outside the Region” aims to achieve faster response, mobilize greater resources and establish stronger coordination to ensure ASEAN’s collective response to disasters. Between 2004 and 2014, the ASEAN region recorded more than 50% of the total global disaster fatalities (the 2008 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar and the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines) that led to 354,000 of the 700,000 deaths in disasters worldwide. The total economic loss was estimated at US$ 91 billion.

Indo – Pacific

Friction in the East China Sea

Japan protested to China on 06 Nov 16 after Chinese coastguard ships entered the territorial waters of disputed islands in the East China Sea, Tokyo said. Four Chinese vessels entered the waters surrounding the islets, called the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China, at about 10am local time, according to the Japanese coastguard. They left the territorial waters within two hours, the coastguard said. Earlier on 01 Nov 16, Tokyo had lodged a diplomatic complaint against Beijing after it discovered a Chinese drillship moored and operating near several natural gas fields in the disputed waters.

The two countries are locked in a long-running dispute over the uninhabited, Japanese-controlled islets. Japan has routinely complained that China has been escalating regional tensions by sending ships to the island chain despite repeated protests from Tokyo. Tokyo has lodged at least 32 protests through diplomatic channels this year over what it says have been a total of 31 days of intrusions by Chinese vessels in its territorial waters. Japanese officials have also claimed that sightings of natural gas flares indicate the construction of as many as 12 Chinese drilling platforms in the East China Sea, in this October alone.

China’s increasing assertiveness has been visible over the past five years as it continues to invest heavily in the growth of its Navy. The Chinese proclamation of an ADIZ, in 2013, over the East China Sea further exacerbated Sino-Japanese relations. Japan, in the recent past, has also been strengthening its relations with other states, namely the Philippines and Vietnam, so as to counterbalance China’s influence in the region. All these actions are an outcome of the ongoing geopolitical tussle in the region. The recent spike in Chinese intrusions into the waters of the Senkau/Diaoyu islands is only a sign of their growing naval strength providing further impetus to Chinese assertiveness which will likely manifest itself in further such intrusions.

China & Taiwan

Li Keqiang visit to Kyrgyztan, Kazakhstan, Latvia and Russia

The Chinese Premier visited Kyrgyztan on 2-3 November 2016 to attend the Shanghai Corporation Organisation (SCO) meeting and bilateral consultation. Li Keqiang attended the 15th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) prime ministers' meeting. The prime ministers of the six countries, China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan met at the 15th prime minister meeting of the SCO held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. The meeting concluded with a Joint Declaration that emphasised the need to promote pragmatic cooperation in fields such as financing trade, energy and infrastructure.

On the bilateral front, Premier Li Keqiang met with President Almazbek Atambayev and Prime Minister Sooronbay Jeenbekov. A number of agreements were signed in the field of finance, culture and energy. Leaders from both the countries agreed to synergize the "Belt and Road" initiative with Kyrgyzstan's development strategies. They also agreed to steadily advance China-Kyrgyzstan production capacity cooperation, strengthen infrastructure construction cooperation in transportation and other areas, develop cooperation in agriculture and deep processing of agricultural products. Both sides signed joint communiqué covering economic technology, production capacity, transportation, agriculture, intellectual property rights and other sectors.

Kyrgyzstan shares borders with China’s western province, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR). After the 2015, attack on the Chinese Embassy in Kyrgyzstan, China has become concern about the security situation in the region. China has shown willingness to deepen security cooperation with Kyrgyzstan and fight against the "three evil forces" (terrorism, extremism and separatism) to maintain regional security and stability.

In the second leg of his visit, the Chinese Premier visited Kazakhistan on 3 November 2016. He also attended the 3rd China-Kazakhstan Regular Prime Ministers' Meeting with Prime Minister Bakytzhan Sagintayev. The two countries upheld the principles of mutual respect, equality, mutual benefit, and win-win cooperation to promote the leapfrog development of bilateral relations. Li Keqiang pointed out that China is willing to better synergize the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative with Kazakhstan's new economic policy of "the Bright Road".

In the third leg of his visit, the Chinese PM visited Latvia on 4 November 2016. Notably, this year marks the 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and Latvia and this was the first visit by any Chinese Premier to Latvia. Latvia is an important transit station for China-EU trade. During the meeting Latvia has given full support to participate in major infrastructure projects including Rail Baltica and the three-sea harbor district cooperation initiative, citing the nation's cost-effective equipment and rich experience in railway and port construction that will be built by China.

The last leg of the visit was to Russia. On 7-9 November 2016, at the 21st regular meeting of heads of government of China and Russia in St Petersburg, the Premier met Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev and President Vladimir Putin. A total of 21 agreements were signed between China and Russia to further promote cooperation in various fields. The meeting produced a joint communiqué calling upon the two countries to deepen cooperation in a wide range of fields, including economy and trade, investment, energy and people-to-people exchange. China and Russia also published a joint statement on the result of the two countries' first-ever joint border inspection, which was started in 2011 as a significant move to ensure peace, stability and development in the border areas between the two countries. Earlier, from 2011 to 2016, China and Russia had conducted a large-scale land, topographic and hydrographic survey along the two country's 4,300-odd km border, before drafting the protocol for the result of the joint border inspection and formulating attached maps.

The tour is significant in enhancing Chinese economic diplomacy on the international stage. Premier Li visited abovementioned four Eurasian countries with an aim to improve economic and bilateral ties with them and facilitate the Belt and Road Initiative. These four countries are a growing market for Chinese goods and investment, and a planned transit route for the "Belt and Road" project. Certainly, China will benefit itself from Li's 'Eurasia' trip with the greater Eurasian partnership.

12th National People’s Congress on the Ruling of Hong Kong

The 24th session of the 12th National People’s Congress Standing Committee was held on 7 November 2016 in China. Zhang Deijiang, chairman of the NPC Standing Committee presided over the meeting. During the meeting, China’s top legislature adopted an interpretation of Article 104 of the Basic Law of Hong Kong by a unanimous vote. According to the interpretation of Article 104, "To uphold the Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China" and to bear "allegiance to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China" are not only the legal content which must be included in the oath prescribed by the Article, but also the legal requirements and preconditions for standing for election in respect of taking up the public office specified in the Article. The decision has come amid the controversy that sparked off during the swearing in ceremony for the sixth LegCo. On 12 October 2016, two elected legislators violated the oath, publicly voiced support for “Hong Kong independence” and insulted China. After this incidence the oath was declared invalid.

This was the fifth time since the handover in 1997 that China has exercised the power to interpret the Basic Law. The Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying has supported the interpretation of the oath-taking law.

KMT President HungHsiu-chu meets President Xi Jinping

Leader of the principle opposition party of Taiwan (Kuomintang-KMT) met President Xi Jinping on 1 November 2016, in Beijing. This is the second high profile meeting of Xi Jinping with Taiwanese leader after the Xi-Ma meeting in Singapore in 2015. Ahead of the meeting, the Democratic progressive Party (DPP) had advised Hung not to sign any formal agreement which is the prerogative of the ruling government in Taiwan. The main agenda of the meeting was to discuss the cross-Strait relations wherein Xi Jinping recognised the contribution of the KMT and the CPC in cross-Strait relationship. During the meeting, Xi Jinping reiterated the mainland’s unchanged policies of serving the people on both sides of the strait. He also mentioned the importance of “1992 Consensus” and “one-China principle”. For the CCP, the 1992 Consensus and opposition to Taiwan independence are the bedrock foundation for the cross-Strait relations. According to the South China Morning Post, President Xi has conveyed to Hung Hsiu-chu that the “Chinese people would overthrow Communist regime if island’s push for formal separation permitted”. Hung Hsui-chu proposed a path that would advance cross-Strait peace. Xi Jinping expressed the desire and bottom-line for peace. However, the DPP does not recognise the “1992 Consensus”.

The meeting comes at a time when China has frozen communication and exchanges with the Strait Exchange Foundation and the Mainland Affair Council. Diplomatically, China has also sought to isolate Taiwan even more by having its representatives barred from International gatherings as was evident during the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) meeting. The significance of Xi-Hung meeting lies in the fact that it is the first time Hung visited Beijing as the president of the KMT but this is not the first time a KMT President is meeting the Chinese President. In 2005 KMT President Lien Chian met the Chinese President Hu Jintao. Overall, the underlining importance of the meeting was the reiterating of the importance of the 1992 Consensus. After the meeting, Hung attended a two day Cross-Strait Peaceful Development, an annual meeting between the KMT and Chinese Communist Party that was started after Lien’s visit to China in 2005.

National Security Advisory level meeting in Hyderabad

Indian National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval met with his counterpart Yang Jiechi in Hyderabad on 4 November 2016. This is Yang’s Jiechi’s third visit to India in two last months. The agenda of the meeting was to resolve the major irritants that have strained the bilateral relations in recent times. Recently, the major bone of contention between the two countries has been India’s NSG bid and designating Maulana Masood Azhar as “international terrorist”. According to the Ministry of External Affairs, the bilateral discussions covered various topics under the bilateral, regional and international issues of mutual interest. Both sides agreed that the “forthcoming high-level engagement in counter-terrorism is yet another manifestation of growing convergence of views of two countries on this pressing challenge facing international community”. The Xinhua news agency termed the talks between Doval and Yang as an “informal meeting”. The MEA has shown optimism on the meeting, stating that the meeting has helped “enhanced mutual understanding and will contribute to greater mutual trust” and more such talks will be held in future. However, there was no concrete outcome of the meeting.

Japan

Prime Minister Modi’s Visit to Japan

Prime Minister Modi visited Japan for the third annual Modi-Abe Summit from 11-16 November 2016. His second visit to Japan as Prime Minister assumes even more significance owing to the recent Sino-Japanese tensions following Chinese drilling in East China Sea. Ten MoUs were signed between India and Japan during this summit. The most prominent is the Agreement for Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy. In breaking precedent, Japan will now supply nuclear reactors, fuel and technology to India which is not a Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) signatory. India has declared a moratorium on nuclear testing since 1998, but has not signed the NPT contending that it is discriminatory. Japan is a major player in the nuclear energy market and this deal will allow for US-based companies like Westinghouse and GE to set up atomic plants in India as both have Japanese investments. India is in advanced negotiations with Westinghouse Electric owned by Japan's Toshiba to build six nuclear reactors in the south - a part of New Delhi's plan to ramp up nuclear capacity ten-fold by 2032.

Under the Special Strategic and Global Partnership as outlined in the "India and Japan Vision 2025," PM Modi and PM Abe decided to seek synergy between India's "Act East" Policy and Japan's "Expanded Partnership for Quality Infrastructure.” PM Modi reiterated his commitment to making strong progress on the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail project. Both India and Japan agreed for greater engagement and cooperation in the financial sector in accessing greater resources for infrastructure development. Other MoUs include dialogue in regard to training and skills development and shaping new partnerships in areas such as space science, marine and earth science, textiles, sports, agriculture and postal banking. India also extended ‘Visa-On Arrival’ facility to all Japanese nationals and also extended a long-term 10-year visa facility to eligible Japanese business persons. Japan, on the other hand, announced a relaxation of visa requirement for Indian students.

India and Japan also agreed to cooperate closely to promote connectivity, infrastructure and capacity-building in the regions that occupy the inter-linked waters of the Indo-Pacific. Regarding the South China Sea, the two Prime Ministers stressed the importance of resolving the disputes by peaceful means, in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law including the UNCLOS. They urged all parties to resolve disputes through peaceful means without resorting to threat or use of force and exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities, and avoid unilateral actions that raise tensions. The successful ‘Malabar’ naval exercise was underscored as the convergence in strategic interests in the broad expanse of the waters of the Indo-Pacific. They also condemned terrorism in strongest terms in all its forms and manifestations in the spirit of "zero tolerance” and called upon all countries to work towards eliminating terrorist safe havens and infrastructure, in disrupting terrorist networks and financing channels, and stopping cross-border movement of terrorists.

Myanmar’s Sui Kyi’s Visit to Japan

Myanmar’s State Counselor Aung San Sui Kyi visited Japan from 1-5 November 2016, under her recent string of foreign visits to plug Myanmar as an investment destination. She previously, visited China in August, the US in September and India in October. Myanmar needs Japanese investment and robust bilateral ties as a counterweight to its largest trading partner, China. Japan already has a significant presence centered on the Japan-led Thilawa Special Economic Zone. Sui Kyi met Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on 2 November 2016. PM Abe committed that Japan will provide aid worth 800 billion yen (US$7.73 billion) to Myanmar over five years to support its peace-building and development efforts. About 40 billion yen of the aid will be directed toward supporting ethnic minorities. This is significant in view of the recent international criticism on upsurge in violence against the Rohingya minority in Myanmar.

Sui Kyi also met Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida on 3 November 2016. Kishida expressed Japan’s desire to be involved with strengthening regional connectivity between the Mekong region and India and emphasized the need for greater economic and strategic ties between Myanmar and India. He also welcomed Myanmar's decision to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Sui Kyi also visited her alma mater, Kyoto University where she received an honorary doctorate from university president Juichi Yamagiwa.

TPP in Doldrums in Japan

Despite LDP’s majority in Lower House and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s eagerness to have the Trans Pacific Partnership bill passed before US presidential elections to prevent re-negotiations, the TPP ratification in Japan now lies in doldrums. While attending an 18 October 2016 party organized by Tsutomu Sato, chairman of the Lower House Committee on Rules and Administration, farm minister Yuji Yamamoto had blurted out, “It’s up to Mr. Sato to decide whether to forcibly pass the bill”. Yamamoto’s undemocratic suggestion that the TPP bill could be steamrolled through the Diet immediately ignited the ire of opposition lawmakers, recalling an earlier blunder by a different LDP lawmaker who said in September that he wanted to realize the “forcible” passage of the bill.

Japan had enjoyed leverage in TPP negotiations since it is also a participant in China-led RCEP negotiations- that gave it tremendous bargaining power vis-à-vis the other. Japan sought US concessions in TPP negotiations on many controversial issues such as beef and rice that have long-drawn been an issue of friction in US-Japan bilateral trade. Further TPP’s deregulation of trade in services along with increase in inward FDI greatly benefits Japan’s flagging economy.
Following victory of Donald Trump in US presidential elections, the TPP has an uncertain fate. President Obama has also reconciled to that fact and given up ratification of TPP in the Senate lame duck session. However, the need for the US to formulate its own economic architecture in an East Asia dominated by China still remains.

Abe in Urgency to Meet US President-Elect Donald Trump

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arranged a bilateral meeting with US President-elect Donald Trump over a phone call following his shocking victory for 17 November 2016 in New York. In the 20 minutes conversation, Abe stressed to Trump that a strong US-Japan alliance is indispensable to the peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region. However, he did not touch on any potentially sensitive defense and trade issues. Katsuyuki Kawai, a special adviser to Abe will visit Washington from 14-18 November 2016, to meet with Trump’s team. The Abe-Trump meeting would happen before Abe attends the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum leaders’ summit in Peru from 19-20 November 2016.

The unorthodox arrangement suggests that the Japanese government is keen to create communication channels with Trump after his unexpected victory in the US presidential elections. Trump’s threatening to withdraw US troops from Japan while encouraging Japan to go nuclear has led to many panicked fears in Tokyo. It has also now come to light that Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga met retired US Army Lt Gen Michael Flynn, a close adviser to Trump on matters of national security to discuss Asia-Pacific security issues during his visit to Japan in October. Democratic Party lawmaker Akihisa Nagashima who also met Flynn said Flynn had assured him that comments Trump made on the campaign trail about the Japan-US security arrangements would not be continued into his presidency.

Japanese Defense Minister Tomomi Inada in a press conference on 11 November 2016 stated that Japan is bearing the costs of nearly 200 billion yen (US$1.9 billion) in host-nation support to the US every year. She too, like Abe, reiterated the significance of the US forces stationed in Japan amid the tough regional security environment.

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