Setting the Strategic Perspective

A Global War

The Russo Ukraine war which is treading its blood-soaked trail (676 days and counting) has truly been a ‘global war’. Simply put, it is West plus the US versus Kremlin on the Ukrainian battlefield. The pattern long set is ‘boots-on-ground’ of the two warring nations in the tactical battle area (TBA) with strategic and geopolitical ramifications impacting the entire planet. It is much like a boxing bout, in which the weaker player is continuously being pumped with ‘energy to box on’ by ‘others’ though standing outside the ring but having big stakes in the boxing arena. The duel continues…

What if this lifeline of ‘energy to box on’ diminishes or even dries up. No prizes for guessing the likely outcome.

Big Game

Social media is flush with huge amount of documented and analysed data on the Russo-Ukraine war. A few salient points relevant to this work are stated below:-

• As stated, far from a war between the two adversaries, it is a ‘global war’ where the stakes go much beyond the simplistic Ukraine versus Russia.
• It is now clear that for President Putin, the bigger aim of his ‘Special Military Operation’ went far beyond a La Crimea. May be it was to undo the reported (read alleged) NATO’s game of inching closer to Russian borders to be able to project ‘crippling power’ at the door-step of Kremlin. The reference here is to the reality or otherwise of the reported preparations for deployment of weapons of mass destruction dangerously close to the Russian borders (underground laboratory discovered in Mariupol).
• The real winners in this war are neither Ukraine nor Russia; it is the Defence Companies churning out war-waging material and the oil companies that have made astronomical profits, not to mention the reconstruction and rehab cartel waiting in the wings to make it big in the war-ruined Ukraine.
• The futility of multiple sanctions on Russia is too conspicuous to be missed out. In fact, the Russian oil and energy have found alternative flow routes to its target destinations.
• The coming closer of Russia with Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE is not out of context as OPEC + deliberations continue at this point in time. India has been a net gainer be it Russian oil or its fine balancing act between the West and the East; kind of validating its claim to strategic autonomy.

Notwithstanding all the above, what is visible even to a blind eye that the War actually brought together the ‘West’ as some 50+ nations geared up to provide support to Ukraine standing up politically against the Russian aggression. It is a different point that almost all of them don’t mind getting the cheap Russian energy (through bypass routes) or carrying forward their trade and making a mockery of sanctions.

On Aid to Ukraine

The US is the numero-uno supporter (read driver) of this conflict. As of Dec 2023, the US has given more than $75 Billion (Bn) to Ukraine. ^[1] Detailed breakdown of this amount exists in various reports. As per one such tabulation, some 3.9 Billion USD has gone for the humanitarian aid in sub-heads such as food assistance, healthcare support, refugee assistance and other miscellaneous causes; 26.4 Bn has been the estimated quantum of economic support in terms of budgetary aids, funds, loans etc.; $18.3 Bn has been towards training equipment and logistics support; 4.5 Bn towards grants and loans while 23.5Bn has gone towards providing weapons and equipment to ‘fuel’ the war effort. All this totals to a whopping 75.4 Bn.

The US weapon aid pack covers the entire spectrum from the ‘eyes and ears’ by way of surveillance equipment like radars, surveillance drones, ground and satellite based communication equipment to the ‘teeth’ to fight the war. The latter included Infantry arms and equipment, chemical, biological and radiological protective gear, artillery guns, howitzers, mortars with thousands of rounds of conventional, as well as, precision munitions, armoured vehicles of all types, air defence guns and missiles, air-to-ground missiles, helicopter support and a huge inventory of kamikaze drones.^[2]

As of May 2023, compared to the US (upto that time 70.7 Bn) the European Union (EU) had committed some 35.06 Bn, followed by a host of other nations providing aid; UK (10.74 Bn), Germany (10.68 Bn), Japan (6.62 Bn),Canada (5.27 Bn), Poland (4.27 Bn), Netherlands (4.06 Bn) and 32 other countries with aid ranging from 2.09 Bn to 0.03 Bn.^[3] This aid has three components , namely financial, humanitarian and Military.

A Brief Background Check from the Front Line

Some points are stated from the battlefront by way of a quick ground check^[4]:-

• The Ukrainian counter offensive that started on 24 June 2023 along three axes thrust lines; 1. Along Orikhiv –heading into Zeporizhzhia; 2. Along Velyka and heading towards the border between Zeporizhzhia—Donestsk and 3. Along Bakhmut heading towards east Donestsk met with strong Russian defences.
• The defender had dug in deeply along the line Kupiansk, Kreminna, Bakhmut, Robotyne. With miles of trenches miles of trenches filled with explosives and trip-wired booby-trapped mines. The defences were four layered to include minefields, antitank and anti-personal obstacles, trench line itself and long range artillery and most of multi-barrel rocket launchers deployed in the rear.
• The defensive battle was duly supported with the might of Russian air power consisting of strike aircrafts (SU 35s, Mig 29s and more) , deadly attack helicopters in short AHs ( KA52s, Mi24 and more) and Kamikaze Drones ( lancet, Shahed etc.).
• The scenario had kind of reversed. Russian air assets were no more in the offensive supporting their armour thrust lines in contested skies and taking disproportionate hits by a trio of weapons - MANPADs. Anti-tank Missiles and Drones, these were now operating to their full might over their own defended area.
• The Russian electronic warfare arsenal that got stymied due to being flittered into penny packets during the early days of the war was also operating in more centralized fashion and taking soft-kills on the Ukrainian targets.
• The erstwhile heavy beating taken by Russian forces owing to the lack of anti-drone weaponry was fast being made up as huge investments were done by Russia in pulling up its anti-drone capability in the front line.
• Faced with this state of the defences the counteroffensive remained very much short of its aim of a blitzkrieg type of operation piercing through multiple axes as stated above and attempting to reach Sea of Azov and capture Mariupol thus cutting the Russian defences in two halves torn across the middle and cutting off the land bridge to Crimea. (See map above)
• The counteroffensive stalled to a point that prompted Gen Valery Zaluzhny Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to state that the same has reached a stalemate^[5] and that has been the perception as well.
• As of 20 Nov 2023, Ukraine was able to establish several footholds across the Dnipro River, the largest river in Ukraine that had till date separated the Ukrainian and Russian Forces ever since the latter withdrew from Kherson in the South. This does not dilute the fact that Ukraine has regained some 370 sq km of territory constituting 14 settlements in the general area of Zaporizhzhia and Donesk (and counting)^[6] besides claiming several successes in striking the Russian naval fleet in the Black sea.

Be that as it may the following is relevant:-

• The abiding perception is that the counteroffensive has not achieved its aim. This is being stated and perceived in many different words; failed/reached a stalemate/ slowed down/stopped and the like.
• The donor countries aiding Ukraine are facing multiple constraints of their own (covered later).
• It will be fair to mention that a visible war-aid fatigue is setting in.

How all of this is going to affect the aid to Ukraine?

Status of Future Aid for Ukraine

United States

At this point in time, the US Lawmakers are still negotiating over the President’s $ 106 Bn National Security Supplemental request. This sum includes $60 billion military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.^[7] Open sources report that in a Republican majority House of Representatives conservative members are not in favour of sending more aid for Ukraine.

As of 20 Dec 2023, it has been reported that the voting on US aid for Ukraine has been pushed to 2024. The President’s move in the lower house to secure the aid package of 60Bn has been blocked by the Republicans in in US Congress demanding new immigration legislation (details not covered).

Staying on the aid package, the imbroglio lies in the fact that while the aid bill might come through in the democratic (ruling party) majority Senate, the same is unlikely to find favour in the Republican (opposition) majority House of Representatives. Passing legislation requires the agreement from both bodies, i.e. US Senate and US House of Representatives which together constitutes the US Congress.

President Zelensky in his year end Press Conference on 19 Dec 2023 stated that he was confident that US will not betray them and what was agreed on during his visit to US would be fulfilled. This is nothing beyond a ‘statement of hope’.^[8]

Besides all the attendant imbroglio/logjam, the Biden administration on 27 Dec 2023 announced $250 mn security assistance to Ukraine. This tranche is to be provided from the inventories of the Department of Defence (DoD) under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). Incidentally, this is the 54th such tranche that has been provided ex the DoD inventory.^[9] (Details of PDA mechanism is not covered)

Aid from European Union

According to open sources, ever since the war has started in Feb 2022, EU has mobilized €785 million ($ 821 million) towards humanitarian aid for Ukraine and €58 million ($63.5 million) for the displaced persons that have fled to the neighbouring Moldova. This aid is basically dedicated to humanitarian support such as food, water, essential household items, health care support, emergency winter shelter protection, education to deal with emergencies and even cash for basic needs.

In Apr 2023, Ukraine was included as participating state in EU Civil Protection mechanism- a framework that helps countries overwhelmed by disaster.

As of Nov 2023, the EU (27 member states) has committed a total of $91 billion in financial, military, humanitarian and refugee assistance ever since the start of war. The figure includes $19.3 billion as financial support for 2023 alone out of which some 17.8 Billion already stands disbursed.^[10] Ukraine has confirmed having received this 18th tranche of aid from EU.^[11]

Besides EU and the US bilateral aid has come from some 45 sovereign nations. The countries that have supported the most have been Germany, UK, France, Norway, Poland, Netherlands and Denmark.^[12]

The future aid package of €50 billion in aid from Ukraine planned over the next four years hangs in balance as during the vote on 15 Dec 2023, Hungary’s PM Viktor Orban has vetoed the same ( EU approvals have to be unanimous) Mr Orban is asking for more funding for his own country (already secured €11 Bn, wanting €26 Bn- further details not covered).^[13]

While EU successfully voted (with Hungary’s absenteeism) for starting membership talks with Ukraine which could take as much as upto 2035, the immediate requirement of approving the long term aid package of €50 Bn could not be approved.

Faced with this veto from Hungary, it has been reported on 26 Dec 2023, that EU is currently discussing Plan B for aid for Ukraine. This involves the European Commission to borrow up to € 20 Bn from capital markets for Ukraine in 2024. This option does not require guarantees from all the 27 member states that constitute the EU thus permitting the union to find a way around Hungary if the Mr Orban refuses to drop his veto during the forthcoming EU summit on 01 Feb 2024.^[14]

Some Reflections

Following points are made:-

• The erstwhile seamless flow of aid for Ukraine has certainly got interrupted and the future of the same seems riddled with multiple obstacles.
• While the US has released a meager $ 250 Mn from the DoD inventories under the PDA as against $ 60 Bn as projected to the Congress, the likelihood of the passage of the later hangs in balance. On no count it will be easy.
• Even the PDA route of aid by drawing out of DoD inventory is unlikely to be a guaranteed one as that is negatively impacting the US defence preparedness.
• Way back on Aug 22 there were voices in the open source of depleting stocks of some critical ammunition in US due to their drawing out of inventories for Ukraine. The depleting ammunition stockpiles had sparked concerns from the Pentagon.^[15]
• In percentage terms, the US military aid stands at a meager 12% of what it used to be during the peak of the ground offensive in Mar-Jul 2023. Following this trajectory, it is not that the deliveries would just stop one fine day, the supplies decline gradually as equipment from past assignments arrives slowly in many different consignments. The deliveries as of now have started declining; these are likely to reduce further in Jan-Feb 2024 coming to a negligible sometime in summer of 2024.^[16]
• With the US national debt sitting on a keg at $33.91 trillion as of Oct 2023, where the Govt. is on the mercy of the Congress for permission to borrow more to avert a Federal default, even the future approvals on the Senate route for hefty aid packages to Ukraine will become a huge issue and a huge national burden.^[17]
• The US public opinion is also hardening against giving aid for Ukraine. According a to a report published on 22 Nov 2023 nearly half (45%) Americans polled voted against sending aid for Ukraine. That these figures are not likely to get any better is the abiding sentiment across the lawmakers. This does not auger an erstwhile ‘moon-walk’ for Ukraine.^[18]
• It is the sense of the author, that the EU aid as an institutional arrangement is likely to pass the hurdle of Hungary on 01 Feb 2024. In in any case Plan B is getting traction. The point at issue is, will the momentum of the aid in quantum and frequency be maintained? Only the time will tell. Given the type of emerging eco-system being shaped by slowing economies, surging inflation, mounting cost-of-living crises, rising unemployment, burgeoning regional conflicts, mounting illegal migration and so on the road ahead is likely to be ridden with uncertainties.^[19]
• Kremlin has warned that the EU aid to Ukraine is likely to harm European economy while it will make no significant difference to war. The reason quoted for such an assertion is the rampant corruption in Ukraine wherein the aid is not only being misspent, but also is getting ‘stolen’.^[20]
• Bilateral arrangements can however go on, but in that too some voices of concern are emerging:-
• In Germany, there is an emerging bottleneck in boosting ammunition production for aiding Ukraine due to low stocks of critical ammunition at home. EU has promised one million artillery shells to Ukraine by Mar 2024. Germany’s share in this pile is some 300,000- 400,000. Issues are being faced in ramping up production capabilities. On the flip side there are reports of German plans to double its aid tranche to Ukraine in 2024. However, in the difficult economic context as attendant in Germany now, such a promise may be hard to sustain.^[21]
• It was reported in Nov 2023 that the new Slovak Govt. has declined to approve any more military aid to Ukraine^[22]
• Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia are also in the same category ( further details not covered) ^[23]

So what are we looking at?

• Ukrainian’s capability to repel Russian attack, petering slowly over time.
• Aid flow to Ukraine running into multiple hurdles (read ‘reality checks’).
• Russia showing renewed vigour and appetite for continuing the onslaught.

Will the inevitable happen?

Not really as of now- this is Ukraine! Situation may be grim at this point in time, but surely, the deciding shots have not yet been fired. Many complex and big stakes are involved; much of the future course will be shaped by these. It is wait and watch for now; thus goes the sense of the author.

Endnotes

^[1] “How much aid has the US sent Ukraine?” at www.cfr.org. Accessed on 14 Dec 2023
^[2]ibid
^[3] “Total bilateral aid commitments to Ukraine from Jan 24 2022 to May 31 2023,” at www.statista.com. Accessed on 14 Dec 2023
^[4]636 days and counting which way the wind blows now,” at www.indiandefencereview.com. Accessed on 14 Dec 2023
^[5] “2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive,” at ww.en.m.wikipedia.org.Accessed on 14 Dec 2023
^[6] “2023 counteroffensive,” at www.en.m.wikipedia.org.Accessed on 15 Dec 2023
^[7] “US lawmakers still negotiating Ukraine aid deal as holidays near,” at www.voanews.com. Accessed on 16 Dec 2023
^[8] “Key highlights from Zelensky year end press conference,” at www.kyivpost.com. Accessed on 21 Dec 2023
^[9] “Biden administration announces new security assistance to Ukraine,” at www.fefense.gov.Accessed on 28 Dec 2023
^[10] “EU Assistance to Ukraine in USD,” at www.eeas.europa.eu. Accessed on 21 Dec 2023.
^[11] “Ukraine says it received last tranche of €18 Bn Euro aid package,” at www.reuters.com.Accessed on 28 Dec 2023
^[12]The countries pledging most military aid to Ukraine,” at www.statista.com.Accessed on 21 Dec 2023
^[13] “Hungary blocks €50Bn in EU aid to Ukraine, “at www.aljazeera.com. Accessed on 21 Dec 2023
^[14]EU readies €20 Bn Plan B to fund Ukraine,” at www.ft.com. Accessed on 28 Dec 2023
^[15] “Ukraine war is depleting US ammunition stockpiles..” at www.wsj.com. Accessed on 30 Dec 2023
^[16] “The impact of ending military aid to Ukraine, gradual decline then collapse,” at www.csis.org. Accessed on 30 Dec 2023
^[17] “Understanding the National debt /US.” at www.fiscaldata.treasuray.gov.in. Accessed on 30 Dec 2023
^[18] “Almost half of the Americans think US spending too much on Ukrainian aid…” at www.pbs.org. Accessed on 31 Dec 2023
^[19] “Kremlin says EU aid to Ukraine will harm Europe’s economy,” at www.reuters.com.Accessed on 31 Dec 2023.
^[20]ibid
^[21] “Germany hikes Ukrainian military support..” at www.france24.com. Accessed on 31 Dec 2023
^[22] “New Slovak government refuses to approve military aid package to Ukraine,” at www.aa.com.tr>europe<” Accessed on 31 Dec 2023.
^[23] “The position of countries which refuse to send Ukraine military aid..” at www.bnr.bg. Accessed on 31 Dec 2023

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