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Recent Developments in J and K and Response Options

Coinciding with the commemoration of Vijay Divas, Vivekananda International Foundation held a day-long seminar on “Recent Developments in J&K and Response Options”. An array of distinguished personalities from diverse areas of governance, and the media participated in the seminar. These included Shri Jagmohan and Shri G.C. Saxena, former Governors, J&K who chaired the sessions. The prominent speakers were Shri Muzaffar Baig MP (PDP), Shri Vijai Kapoor (former Lt governor Delhi and Chief Secretary J&K), Dr. Sudhir Bloeria (former Chief secretary J&K), Shri A K Doval (Director VIF and former Director IB), Lt Gen (retd) Nirbhay Sharma (former GOC 15 Corps), Dr. Ashok Bhan (former DGP, J&K) and Mr. Nitin Gokhale (Senior Editor, NDTV).

The main speaker of the session Shri Muzaffar Baig, senior PDP leader and a former J&K Deputy Chief Minister, opened with tribute to Swami Vivekananda, whom he described as “one of the most profound thinkers of India who gave the world a deeper understanding of existence”. Describing the situation in J&K as critical and of profound importance not only for the people of J&K but the Republic of India, Shri Baig said, “What we are experiencing in Kashmir is a new phase. This not only constitutes a challenge to the National Security but also a moral challenge to the core values of its democratic ferity and constitution.” He emphasized that India had preserved the historical and cultural spirit of Kashmiriyat against all odds. Shri Baig then drew a comparision between the present crisis and that of the 1990s, when insurgency had just begun in the valley. He explained that the generation that took to violence in 1989 and 1990s was “a generation that wanted to kill. But those born after 1990 are the children of violence. They want to die.” “This generation represents a bigger challenge. Perhaps it is easy to deal with those who want to kill rather than with those who want to die”, he added. “You need the heart and compassion of Gandhi in Kashmir today”, Shri Baig remarked in the context of recent deaths in the state. “Majority of killings were over reactions, unwarranted, brutal, and could be avoided”, he said.

Tracing the trigger for the present situation, Shri Baig recalled the June 2008 ‘uprising’ that came at the fag-end of the PDP-Congress rule, when an innocuous and legitimate order permitting use of 100 acres of land by the Amarnath Shrine Board got embroiled in political machination. A well intended act took a communal turn leading to the economic blockade of the valley. In retaliation, stone pelters were mobilized at the instance of Hurriyat leaders. He underlined that today there is no communal or inter-state conflict. There is no organized movement and there are no leaders. “Today even children in remote areas are touched by the events.” He warned, “Some people visiting the valley are against everyone who did not conform to their version of Islam. If those people succeed in establishing a constituency in J&K, it would pose a grave danger to India”.

Shri Baig stated, “unavoidable stalemate” on the dialogue process due to 26/11 has had a negative impact in Kashmir. In this regard, he recalled the positive role played by former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in reviving the peace initiative despite the Kargil setback. Coming to the present time, he derided the role of entire political class. He also asserted that Hurriyat Conference was not an independent organization taking orders from their controllers in Pakistan. He revealed that stone pelting in the valley was a calibrated act and partly funded. “I have reports from the ground. People organize the stone pelting, instigate and withdraw….they act as per a plan. These people later find refuge under the umbrella of the mainstream political parties”, he alleged.

Clarifying his party’s stand, he said that he has been telling the people in J&K that there is no chance for Pakistan to take even an inch of Kashmir. “Whatever chance you have, you have in India, within the Indian Constitution, and you will not get anything out of stone pelting.” Shri Baig also talked of failure of governance, an issue his party has raised even with the Prime Minister Dr. Mamohan Singh.

Speaking on the ‘Role of Civil Administration and Challenges’ faced by it, Shri Vijai Kapoor drew from his experiences as Chief Secretary of J&K and lauded the role played by the civil services in this state. “Despite decades of strife, the civil administration has rendered yeoman service”, he said. The quality of the cadre of IAS and IPS officers and even that of lower ranks has been excellent, said Shri Kapoor. They have behaved with highest sense of commitment. He however, added that the Central Government was lagging in supporting the officers in J&K and other so-called “peripheral” states. He particularly referred to the facility of preferential postings, regular promotions, etc. The well established system of primacy of the DC and SP has run into problems in the state with too much micro-management from Srinagar. He felt the ranks of DC and SP should be upgraded to Commissioner/IG to give primacy to the district administration in dealing with and interacting with the security forces establishment. There is no systematic planning process. He also complained, “The technique of public order management has deteriorated. J&K is a highly differential society and is distinct in its unique ethnic and social characteristics. There is need to ‘induce secularization of the administration.’

On the question of financial management, he said that the J&K State Bank, the official bankers, does a ‘no risk lending’. It virtually decides which activities to fund or withhold funds from. This is turn gets dictated by militants. This nexus needs to be broken as it renders financial management totally irrational. The distribution of fertilizers and pesticides to the horticulture segment also needs to be rationalized.

Shri Kapoor also referred to the Indus Water Treaty permitting the use of three rivers by India. Run of the River projects should be set up and full use be made of permissible reservoir capacity specified in the Treaty. These could generate 15,000MW power and help create jobs in the Infrastructure sector and the private sector. He added that the Government of India has developed a doctrine that it has nothing to do with the development of ‘peripheral states’, which in turn, have become skilled in milking the centre for resources, which do not reach people.

Dr. Sudhir Bloeria, former Chief Secretary J&K also spoke on the roles of Civil Administration and the Challenges before them. Dr. Bloeria elaborated on the main reasons behind the recent breakdown of government machinery in the state. Describing the acts of stone throwing as not a new phenomenon in the state, he said the last time in 2008, it was dealt with effectively. Unfortunately, that performance has not been repeated this time. The Police has been found wanting. He listed out the shortcomings responsible for this:

• Failure of the Civil Administration in discharging its normal function in maintaining peace and order due to a virtual breakdown of functioning of Executive Magistracy and its synergy with police/security forces.
• Failure of senior administration to ensure attendance in government offices.
• Negative attitude of the SHOs and others by avoiding to take responsibilities and pushing the CRPF forward.
• Lack of coordination and lack of harmony between the civil administration, the state police, the CRPF and the Army. This coordination flows from top to bottom and the people responsible for this are of the ranks of Divisional Commissioners, IG of Police and above. Their number is limited. State government should find competent people to man these slots.
• Lack of synergy between the various wings of the Administration and the Security Forces. “This is something which has come out very, very distinctly. There are times when these people are not even talking to each other. The “jointness” is not there. If the situation was turned around from mid-1990s, the major reason was coordination”, Dr. Bloeria remarked.
• Low morale of state police.

A “silver lining” in the ongoing discontent and stone throwing, Dr. Bloeria said, has been that it “has remained confined to major urban centres so far. Unless measures are taken on an urgent basis, it is likely to spread. If that happens, the situation would be far more difficult to handle.” “What can be done in this situation by the Civil Services”, asked Dr. Bloeria. He listed out good governance, redressal of public grievances and acceleration of development programmes as the way out. In all this, he underlined, the basic primacy of the maintenance of law and order, urgent revival of Executive Magistracy, which has almost folded up in this crisis. This is a critical component of the Law and Order machinery. These should work as a team and be accountable as a team. They should be posted in/out together on a term basis. Recourse should be taken to normal substantive laws and provisions of the Public Security Act should not be slapped every time. “How many times have people been booked for violation of Sec 144”, he asked. He also stressed that the role/importance of the Pahari belt should be recognised. These areas have been out of the developmental loop for the last few years and we must ensure positive discrimination in their favour. He also called for holding of Panchayat Elections as a must to delegate powers to this functional level. In 2005, Panchayat Elections were held in Jammu Division but could not be completed in the valley. The MLAs/MLCs don’t want their powers diluted.

Speaking on security related issues, Shri A K Doval, Director VIF and former Director IB, stressed the importance of understanding and evaluating the changing strategy of the ISI, which has undergone various changes with enormous adaptability; much better than others. Explaining this aspect, he started with ISI’s failure in Op Gibraltar (1965) as the trigger for a major change; shifting from espionage to developing modules & cultivating influence amongst Indian Muslims. The next watershed came in 1979, when the Soviets moved into Afghanistan. Pakistan collected Jehadis from all over the world for Afghan Jihad. The impact was:

• Leveraging collaborative links with Islamic groups all over the world, underworld, and criminal syndicates. India’s underworld was also contacted.
• Using covert groups for asymmetric conflict ops within India in ‘brash actions’, leaving no evidence to implicate them in a court of law.

ISI initially exploited the Sikh alienation in Punjab and now we see another change. With the US and world opinion pitched against terror; the need for deniability has gone up. As a result they have developed a host of front organisations. Shri Doval reminded the participants that in J&K, over the last two decades, 85,000 weapons were seized; 90,000 kgs of explosives recovered; whatever was the rate of degradation, the no. of militants was sustained around 3000-3500 in J&K.

From 2007 onwards, the ISI has been facing serious internal challenge. The ‘drivers’ are domestic terrorism and serious problems with these terrorist groups. The ISI itself is being targeted with some of their assets turning rogue. Presently there is no group including LeT, over which ISI enjoys absolute control. Now control has been substituted by deals, which is a very complicated task. For example, with the Haqqani network, the deal is money, sanctuary, power in Kabul in exchange for attacking Indian interests in Afghanistan; and fighting the TTP but most importantly, after the US exits Afghanistan, and if the Haqqani faction assumes power, it will be expected to persuade or degrade terror groups targeting Pakistan. In 2006, problems arose with some jehadis turning rogue. ISI classified them into three categories:

1.Those under direct ISI control
2.Those targeting West/India
3.Those operating inside and targeting Pakistan

ISI has been ruthless against groups targeting Pakistan. It has started using the LeT against them. But there was an LeT splinter group that linked up with Al Qaeda. This went on till Sep 2006. A deal with Dadullah in 2006 broke down in 2007. Dadullah and Taliban had a contract with Mehsuds, more so after the Lal Masjid episode – Dadullah was killed. The defectors were aware of the ISI’s covert assets. There is a whole crop of double agents. The US is mounting pressure to degrade all groups in contact with Al Qaeda. Hence the ISI decided to use LeT, the only reliable group 2007-09.

For a variety of reasons, the number of terrorists in J&K has started coming down, violence and infiltration levels have also fallen down. There was another change in ISI thinking – they realized that the earlier levels of violence cannot continue due to resentment in the valley and unacceptability at international level. They then shifted focus from sabotage to subversion, creating civil society resistance. This was something that Kashmiris would not oppose. A network of subversive elements has been built up. Pakistan feels that the West was basically not opposed to its stand on Kashmir, especially if there was a ‘people’s movement’ in Kashmir. The West may then create a legitimate space for Pakistan.” The legitimacy of democratic process has to be destroyed.”

Lt Gen Nirbhay Sharma, former GOC 15 Corps, in his presentation, focused on the role of the armed forces, which has to be calibrated with political nuances. The valley constitutes only 35% of J&K. People realise they have been done in by Pakistan; hence the appeal for Pakistan is low. There are no illusions among Kashmiris about Pakistan. Kashmiris don’t want integration with Pakistan and know that their interest is in staying as part of the Indian Union.

Even with the turnaround in the militancy situation, Pakistan continues to have the ability to orchestrate events in J&K and India needs to neutralize this. The current agitational approach is more out of frustration, most important issues being lack of good governance. Recalling that in 1947, a few hundred Indian soldiers confronted around 6-7,000 Pakistani raiders. This was possible since people of J&K were with the Army. People guided the Army through every mountain and pass. Unfortunately, the country has got desensitized and goes about its business pretty much as usual. This cannot be wished away. Entire national effort should now be mobilised for this task. A national consensus catting across party lines must be evolved. As far as HR violations are concerned, compared with the Pakistan or US Army’s HR record, 97% allegations against the Indian Army were found false. There could be aberrations but these are never condoned. The biggest challenge, he remarked, was to keep our powder dry as far as protecting theborders is concerned. We cannot afford to lower the guard on LC. There is the need for synergy between all security forces – Army, CRPF, J&K Police and the civil administration. Whenever things go wrong, the tendency is to pass on the buck to the other’s head, instead of displaying solidarity and unity. This must change. He argued against the demand to scrap off the AFSPA, without which the Armed Forces cannot have a legal cover to operate. He stressed that the Army was not in J&K because ‘they enjoy it’, but only to fulfill its constitutional obligations. However, collateral damage is inevitable in such operations. The overall situation was not that gloomy and given Pak’s own domestic mess, this is the time to consolidate our gains.

Dr. Ashok Bhan, former DGP J&K spoke on police, paramilitary and intelligence aspects of the current situation. He clarified that there are enough resources in J&K to set things right. Incidents of violence have come down since 2002. Calls for hartals/public disobedience have decreased since 2003. They had reached the lowest level during 2003-07. They have however been rising since 2007 onwards and are at a very high level in 2010. Besides, there is a distinct rise in infiltration attempts and intrusions after 2008. He further clarified that from 2004, there was a change on the ground – the intensity of violence went down – there was a high voter turnout in the state elections last year.

Accordingly guns were replaced by civil disobedience movement. Since then; people wanted peace and development. Following last year’s elections, the government seems to have misread the high voter turn-out. The mandate was for good governance, for solving issues & for forward movement on the political front. Expectations were higher than those from previous govts. This mandate was not for merely for solving day to day problems. Separatists had not become irrelevant. But the response to the new challenge was inadequate. The change from CI to Law & Order (L&O) grid required change in training, attitude and equipment. A sense of fatigue in paramilitary and J&K Police needed to be addressed. He also favoured deployment of the BSF instead of the CRPF. There was need for strict adherence to SOPs. The SFs should desist from getting involved in local disputes; calling people to camps without legal authority; carrying out search operations without presence of local police; avoid excessive checking and movement of troops through busy areas. Fake encounters are totally unacceptable. J&K Police response must change in response to the new challenges. It should play a predominant role with back up of Para-Military Force. J&K Police mindset also has to change from CI to L&O.

He also stressed the need to develop links & communication with the mainstream opposition. A sense of insecurity in the opposition leaders will lead to posturing. Linkages and talks with them were earlier established as also with separatists & ex-terrorists. These have to be maintained even with pro-India groups. We should never snap these links since they are needed in times of crisis. A policy of use and throw will be highly counter-productive. Any attempt to cause a near collapse of the legal system must be countered. The media should also avoid the temptation to report what separatists like to hear, undue and excessive coverage of hartals and procession needs to be moderated. On the question of funding he asserted that Pakistan continues to provide funds through hawala, push in counterfeit currency and drugs through cross border couriers and. A strategy needs to be devised to suck out and ‘deny this oxygen’ to the militants. The political space must not shrink. Pakistan will continue with its agenda of mixing terrorism with civil disobedience movement and the intelligence and security forces should be prepared to counter these.

Shri Nitin Gokhale, Senior Editor, NDTV spoke on the role of the media. Shri Gokhale said, “There are different kinds of reporting and problems faced by the media:

• Factual or event based
• Based on Intelligence, Security Forces perspective
• Separatist camp reporting
• Analytical
• Human Interest, human tragedy stories
• Objective reporting gets difficult
• Practical difficulties faced by local reporters
• Drying up flow of information from govt side in times of crisis with very selective info being made available creates a vacuum, which is then filled up by relatively fast info received from separatists.
• Need to understand the special need for speedy response to keep up with the requirements of 24x7 TV channels.
• Huge gap between local media and Central Security Forces needs to be bridged.

Local reporters come under pressure from separatists and tend to toe the agenda by misrepresenting facts. There is a huge volume of hate propaganda on the internet – Social networking sites such as Facebook, Twitter, etc. State response however, is still old media based and antiquated. The voice of the common man who is sick of daily strikes, uncertainty and violence; remains unheard. There was a clear failure on the part of the state machinery in Perception Management.

Shri GC Saxena, former Governor J&K emphasized that despite recent hiccups, the worst was over in J&K. There was need for dialogue to address aspirations of the people from all regions of J&K. Sometimes leaders convey an impression that India is flexible but the red lines are clear and must be emphasized. He lauded the Human Rights record of the forces, which was excellent, except for isolated cases of over-reaction. The problem is exacerbated by cross-border terrorism. There was a need for greater sensitivity on Human Rights issues. He also stressed the need for AFSPA, which gives Police’s powers to the Army for search, arrest & seizure. This is no big deal. He felt that the time was not yet ripe for any dilution/reduction of areas declared disturbed in J&K, as also, the powers to return fire & demolish structures from which fire was coming. He also argued in favour of greater use of UAVs; technical force multipliers and ‘unconventional’ tactics to be evolved to carry the fight to the militants’ territory. Greater use of SFs was the need. Governance was an obvious area on which attention has to be paid. He acknowledged a weakness on the Info War structure, but cautioned the media to avoid undue publicity to protests, demonstrations, and handle news in a more careful manner. He also endorsed the suggestion to revive the Executive Magistracy as was highlighted by Dr. Bloeria and Shri Vijai Kapoor.