Internal Political Developments

Increasing Distrust over Completion of Peace-process on Time; Major Political Parties Once Again Fail to Endorse a Time-bound Calendar: As the prime minister-led Army Integration Special Committee once again failed to endorse a time-bound calendar for vacating cantonment sites on December 16, 2011, there are some apprehensions amongst the people over the major parties’ commitment to abide by the 7-point deal and complete the on-going peace-process as per the agreements.

The Special Committee failed to reach a consensus on the operational plan presented by Special Committee Secretariat coordinator, Balananda Sharma in a meeting held in Baluwatar, Kathmandu. According to reports, Prime Minister Dr. Baburam Bhattarai and Maoist representative in the committee Barsha Man Pun were of the view that they could only commit to complete the process within 15 days of the commencement of farewell ceremonies, whereas the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist and Leninist (CPN-UML) proposed that the government bid farewell to combatants opting for voluntary retirement by December 30, 2011. “The Maoists stressed that the number of combatants opting for integration during regrouping will be reduced once the integration process is agreed upon. We could not reach an agreement after they insisted that those switching their interests and those opting for voluntary retirement be released from cantonments together,” media quotes Nepali Congress leader and Special Committee member Ram Sharan Mahat.

In fact, it was the Special Committee which asked the Secretariat led by Sharma to recommend the operational plan for implementing both army integration and voluntary retirement processes within five days. However, the Secretariat was able to provide suggestions only on the action plan to implement voluntary retirement process during the meeting. The secretariat has proposed to conduct farewell ceremonies in all the 28 cantonments and completing the programme within 12 days of the commencement of the release process. It has also suggested that the Special Committee conduct a special programme in one of the main cantonment sites that will be attended by major party leaders and representatives of the diplomatic community and the media to mark the beginning of the farewell process. Setting up a mobile bank at cantonment sites to facilitate the combatants to open bank accounts, providing a letter of appreciation to the combatants opting for voluntary retirement and rehabilitation and providing a share (50 percent of the proposed package) to family members of the combatants who have died in the cantonments, and providing Rs. 2,000 per day as travel allowance to combatants during their exit and arrange for transport facilities from the cantonments to the nearest highway in order to connect them to their homes are other major recommendations made by the Secretariat. It also suggested using the NA battalion as the “integration centre” for screening and selecting eligible combatants.

It is said that the government’s delay in setting up the non-combat directorate for the integrating of former fighters into the national army and delivering formal instructions to the Nepal Army (NA) to start preparations is the major cause of the stalemate in the preparation of the operational plan. The NA has been saying that it will start preparations once the government’s decision is conveyed to it officially through the Defence Ministry. Also, arranging money seems to be another big challenge as the government will have to pay Rs 3,690,400,000 for the 7,280 combatants who opted for voluntary retirement in the initial phase. According to recent figures, the number of combatants opting for voluntary retirement is 7,280. The number is likely to go up to around 10,470 once the combatants opting for integration is reduced to the maximum limit of 6,500, as per the 7-point agreement signed by major political parties on November 1, 2011. Subsequently, an additional Rs 1.61 billion will be required if the combatants exceeding the integration limit switch to voluntary retirement.

In the meantime, it is said that the Dispute Resolution Sub-committee, under the Constitutional Committee has reached an agreement on numbers of the contentious issues of the new constitution. The meeting of the Sub-committee, which was convened at Singhadurbar, Kathmandu on November 18, 2011, solved two of the contentious issues-- issues of constitution amendment and the appointment of ambassadors and special envoys, and have come down to 14, except the issues of state restructuring. On November 15, 2011, just three days back also, the Sub-committee had forged a consensus on four different contentious issues i.e. the provision to book the perpetrators of the crimes against humanity, genocide, and war crimes in the new constitution by making retrospective laws, the issues of personal property and land possession by making separate law, etc. In fact, the parties should finalise the contentious issues except the state restructuring within December 30, 2011 as per the CA calendar. And there are still 14 other contentious issues of new constitution including the forms of governance, judiciary and others left to be solved.

Ground Work for a Recruitment of Madhesi Youth to Nepal Army: Finally, the United Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) and the Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha (SLMM) have agreed on December 17, 2011 to initiate the process for recruiting a small number of Madhesi youth in the Nepal Army (NA) in the first phase. In fact, it was agreed upon as per a 4-point deal signed between the Morcha and the Maoist prior to the Prime Minister’s election and the SLMM had been raising the issue in order to draw the attention of UCPN-M leadership in order to getting it implemented. The SLMM had even warned that it will rethink about the coalition with the Maoist if the latter remains apathetic towards implementing the deal.

Though the SLMM has been pressing for the recruitment of 10,000 Madhesi youth by referring to the deal, Prime Minister Dr. Bhattarai has told SLMM leaders that the process begins with the induction of "very few" youth. It is said that the government is mulling over reviving the 3,000 vacancies for the process, and a small number out of the post will be allocated to the Madhesi youth. Also, the Maoist-Madhesi alliance has agreed to bring a new inclusive bill and address the citizenship issue, among others.

Foreign Relations

Relations with India

Nepal-India Power Exchange Committee Meet: Signed Two Agreements: Nepal and India have signed an agreement to strengthen bilateral power exchange agreement at Power Exchange Committee (PEC) meeting held in New Delhi from December 14-15, 2011. The meeting also agreed to speed up the necessary reinforcement of transmission lines to supply power as sought by the Nepali side. Just a few days before the meeting of the PEC began in New Delhi, the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) and Indian Power Trading Corporation (PTC), on behalf of two of the neighbours, had signed two bilateral accords—Implementation of Transmission Services Agreement (ITSA) and Power Sales Agreement (PSA)—paving the way for importing 150MW power from India in next 25 years.

As per the agreement, India has agreed to expedite the reinforcement of the existing infrastructure and complete all the maintenance work for power supply to Nepal as demanded within the next six months. Similarly, Indian side has also said that it would supply the 100 MW power within six months and another 150 MW within a year as the work progresses. It is also said that the agreement will also pave the way for Nepal to import power of 150 MW for 25 years from the Dhalkebar-Muzaffarpur 440 KV cross border transmission line.

It is reported that the formal process to construct this transmission line, which is expected to be completed by July 2014, has already started. And, the price of the power currently supplied to Nepal is likely to be increased from IRs 4.65 to 4.91 per unit from April 2012.

Relations with China

Chinese Prime Minister “Postpones” Nepal Visit: Just a week before the scheduled visit to Nepal, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao decided to “postpone” his visit. The Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Yang Houlan informed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Nepal about Jiabao’s decision on December 13, 2011. As per the schedule, Chinese Prime Minister Jiabao was scheduled to visit Nepal with 100-member delegation including 10 Chinese Ministers from December 20, 2011 for a three-day visit. High level sources confirmed that the visit was postponed from the Chinese side. As the reason behind the postponement is yet to be disclosed, there are different views on the same. In fact, the sudden cancellation of such a high level visit of the Chinese Prime Minister has created some controversy in the media. Also, there are views whether it is only postponement for few days, or has it been cancelled.

In the meantime, the main opposition Nepali Congress has alleged that the sudden postponement of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to Nepal is as a result of diplomatic deficiency on the government’s part. In a press statement on December 14, 2011, the NC leader Ram Chandra Poudel stressed that the cancellation of the visit should not be taken lightly. He also demanded that government must inform the people about the truth behind the cancellation of the visit. Saying that the cancellation of such a high-level visit should have been announced by both the countries simultaneously, Poudel further claimed that the one-sided announcement by Prime Minister Bhattarai is a serious matter as it has raised various speculations about the same.

Also, the ruling Maoist Party’s Secretary CP Gajurel demanded the Prime Minister inform the parliament about the sudden cancellation of Chinese Premier's visit to Nepal. Speaking at the Legislature-Parliament meeting on December 16, 2011, Gajurel claimed that the current government under the leadership of his party Vice-Chairman Baburam Bhattarai is unsuccessful. He said that Wen’s visit was cancelled due to Home Minister Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar’s refusal to visit China and failure to assure the Chinese side about security situation. Gajurel also urged the government to concede this diplomatic failure on its part and work to improve ties with the neighbouring countries. However, Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) and Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Kaji Shrestha have been saying that Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s visit to Nepal was not cancelled but was only deferred. Shrestha also accused “some media outlets” of distorting the facts about Wen’s visit. “We are closely working with the Chinese side to fix the date of the visit,” DPM Shrestha said.

By Uddhab Pyakurel