(November 16 – 30, 2016)

PAKISTAN

New Army Chief Takes Over

Virtually on the eve of the retirement of Gen Raheel Sharif, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif picked Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa as the 16th chief of Pakistan Army. Another significant appointment was that of Gen Zuabir Hayat as the next Chairman Joints Chiefs of Staff Committee to replace Gen Rashad Mahmood who was retiring on completion of his term. Although the CJCSC is technically senior to the Army chief, it is the latter who controls the army and as such is the most important man in Pakistan.

While Gen Hayat was the senior-most general officer, Gen Bajwa, was fourth in the seniority list, and superseded two of his course-mates to become the army chief. But the appointment didn’t raise many eyebrows partly because his name was on the list of five sent to the PM for consideration, partly because he fulfilled all the eligibility criteria and partly because the supersession did not really amount to picking someone from a junior batch. The buzz in Islamabad is that Bajwa’s choice was dictated primarily by two considerations: one, he is regarded as pro-democracy and, it is said, he was among the generals who opposed any military intervention in the political crisis that erupted in 2014 when Imran Khan had gone on the warpath against the Nawaz Sharif government; two, since Bajwa has held most of his command postings along the eastern front, it is believed that he has a better appreciation of the tensions along the Indian border, particularly along the LoC, than anyone else. There was also a third reason for choosing him. He is seen as someone opposed to the Islamist terror groups and regards them as the biggest threat to Pakistan's security.

Although Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has managed to assert his authority by choosing the man he wanted instead of the man – Lt. Gen. Ishfaq Nadeem – that Gen Raheel Sharif was believed to have recommended, it is highly unlikely that the new appointment will change the civil-military dynamics or for that matter the balance of power between the civil and military (loaded in favour of the latter) in any significant way. In a sense, it is one of the ironies of Pakistan’s political system that when the Prime Minister of the country appoints a new army chief, he effectively appoints his own boss! After all, it is one thing for a general to not favour destabilising or deposing an elected civilian government and quite another thing for the same general to concede and accept civilian supremacy. Notwithstanding an army chief’s personal predilections in favour of democracy and civilian rule, he cannot completely ignore, much less go against, the institutional thinking within the army or the views of rest of its top brass. This is a factor whose importance cannot be overstated especially in light of the fact that elements within the Pakistan army (more specifically the ISPR) had started a smear campaign against Gen Bajwa a few days before he was announced as the next army chief. The campaign centered around his family links with the Ahmediyya sect.

It is also assessed that the Nagrota terror attack on an Indian army camp was aimed at confronting the new chief with a fait accompli as far as cooling tensions with India was concerned. Although in his first informal interaction with the media after becoming chief, Gen Bajwa expressed confidence that the situation along the LoC will cool down, two days later he resorted to the typical bluster of his predecessor when he declared that the Pakistan army will respond with full force to any ceasefire violation from the Indian side. Therefore, as far as India is concerned, it would be unwise to lower the guard in the fond hope that the new Pakistan army chief will act more sensibly and pragmatically than the man he has replaced. His remarks on carrying forward Gen Raheel Sharif’s policies also don’t inspire much confidence that there will be any kind of paradigm shift in the strategic orientation of the Pakistan army either on the issue of India and Kashmir, or on the issue of Afghanistan or even on the issue of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ terrorists.

Panama Papers Proceedings: Both Government and Opposition have Reasons to Cheer and Worry

The Supreme Court hearing in the Panama Papers case has been a bit of a roller coaster ride for both the Prime Minister’s supporters as well as the opposition PTI supporters. The apex court initially questioned the quality of ‘evidence’ that the PTI lawyers had presented and dismissed it as irrelevant, going so far as to ask the lead PTI counsel as to whose case he was pleading. After his botched performance, the lead counsel Hamid Khan disassociated himself from the case and was replaced by a team of senior lawyers, including Babar Awan, a PPP senator and former lawyer of Benazir Bhutto and Asif Zardari. Buoyed by the letter of the Qatari prince and smug over the failure of the PTI to present evidence against the Sharif family which could stand up to the standards demanded by the Supreme Court in a very sensitive case, the ruling PML-N seemed to be scenting victory. But then things took another turn with the new lawyers team presenting a convincing argument in the court against the PM and his family. The observations of the judges made it clear that they were not convinced by the money trail of property transactions presented by the Sharif family lawyers. What is more, the PTI lawyers also came up with new evidence related to property transactions and money laundering that muddies the waters even more for the PM and his family. The court has indicated that if the opposition can prove pre-2006 ownership of the London properties by the Sharifs, then the onus of proving themselves innocent will fall squarely on the ‘first family’ of Pakistani politics. On the other hand, if such evidence is not presented, the speculation is that the case will be thrown into the cold storage by forming a judicial commission.

As Line of Control Hheats up, DGMOs Talk to Cool Things Down

The situation along the LoC deteriorated sharply in the last two weeks of Gen Raheel Sharif as Pakistan’s army chief. While tensions were already high, and ceasefire violations had become something of a new normal after the surgical strikes by India in September, there was a massive uptick in cross-LoC firing after the India promised ‘heavy retribution’ in response to the beheading and mutilation of an Indian soldier who was ambushed by a Border Action Team (BAT) in the Macchil sector. Targeting Pakistan army posts in fearsome ‘fire assaults’, significant pain was inflicted on the Pakistani forces. What was significant about the Indian retaliation was the fact that it was carried out virtually all along the LoC. The 2003 ceasefire was holding only in the Kargil-Ladakh-Siachen area. With massive damage being caused inside Pakistan, the Pakistani DGMO was forced to use the hotline to contact his Indian counterpart after a passenger bus in the Neelum Valley was allegedly targeted in Indian shelling. Although the Pakistanis described the conversation as their DGMO warning that they reserved the right to respond at a time and place of their choosing, the Indian side maintained that the Pakistani DGMO had been warned to back off because any Pakistani action would invite a suitable response from the Indian side. But beyond the rhetoric and playing to the gallery, the effect on the ground of the DGMO contact was that the firing stopped from the Pakistani side and the Indian side reciprocated in kind. Meanwhile, there was no dearth of the typical bluff and bluster from the outgoing chief who couldn’t seem to live down the comeuppance he received from the Indian side to his adventurism. In many ways, he bowed out of office without having anything to show in terms of achieving anything against India. Quite to the contrary, his adventurism and resort to terrorism exacted a heavy price from Pakistan.

Although it was expected that the Indian side would retaliate strongly to the Nagrota attack, it appears that there is a tactical pause from the Indian side to see the policy that the new army chief will adopt vis-à-vis India. By not hitting back after Nagrota – the attack on the day the new army chief was assuming office – India has avoided the trap laid for Gen Bajwa by people inside the Pakistan army. But if Bajwa gets led by the nose by this element in the Pakistan army, then the LoC could heat up once again very soon.

AFGHANISTAN

Taliban Leaders Relocate from Pakistan into Afghanistan

Reports are doing the rounds that the Taliban leadership has vacated their safe havens in Pakistan and relocated themselves in Afghanistan, mostly in the Helmand province. At one level this could be a sign of the ascendance of the Taliban inside Afghanistan. It is also possible that the Pakistanis are encouraging their Taliban proxies to re-establish their political presence in Afghanistan and perhaps exercise their influence over the military commanders. If so, then it could mean more violence in the coming weeks and months as the Taliban push ahead to consolidate their position at the expense of the Afghan state. But at another level, it is also possible that the Taliban leader’s movement is a sign of their growing distrust of Pakistan. Even if this is the case, it doesn’t portend well for the situation in Afghanistan because it means that the Taliban are so confident of their power inside Afghanistan that they think that they no longer need the crutches of Pakistan and can therefore free themselves from the clutches of Pakistan. Interestingly, these reports have come at a time when the Pakistanis have been pushing hard for a dialogue between the Taliban and the Afghan government as the only way to restore peace in Afghanistan. The Afghan government has however not confirmed if indeed the Taliban leadership has moved back into Afghanistan.

Islamic State Terror Campaign Gathers Pace

Around 30 people were killed in a suicide bombing on a Shia mosque in Kabul. The bombing was claimed by the Islamic State terror group which has in recent weeks has taken responsibility for some of the most egregious terror attacks on civilians in Afghanistan. Interestingly, the Taliban who had in their time spared no opportunity to massacre Shias, condemned the attack. The Taliban were clearly being disingenuous and their condemnation had less to do with a change in their Sunni exclusivist ideology and more to do with trying to win a degree of acceptability both within and without Afghanistan.

Earlier, the IS terrorists also carried out a suicide attack against a government vehicle carrying officials who were working in the field of national security. The attack was carried out close to the defence ministry in Kabul killing 6 people besides wounding many others. Despite the setbacks that IS has faced in terms of loss of leaders and cadres who have been relentlessly targeted by both Afghan troops and US forces, the IS seems to have managed to maintain its presence in about four districts of Eastern Afghanistan province of Nangarhar.

Turkmenistan Rail link Opens New Outlet for Land-Locked Afghanistan

After the success of the first China-Afghanistan freight train in September, the opening of a new railway link between Imamnazar in Turkmenistan and Aqina dry port in Faryab province of Afghanistan will provide the land-locked Afghanistan a new outlet to connect to rest of the world and as such help it break out of the stranglehold that Pakistan has on Afghan trade and transit. The Turkmenistan link offers Afghanistan an opportunity to connect not just to the other Central Asian states but also beyond to Russia and China.

NEPAL

Government Registers Constitutional Amendment Proposed in the Parliament

The government finally registered at the Parliament Secretariat on the evening of 29th November, 2016, a bill for the second Amendment to the Constitution of Nepal with the objective of addressing the demands raised by the agitating Federal Alliance, thereby expanding the scope of acceptability of the national charter. The issues covered in the amendment proposals include recognition of all mother tongues; resolution of the question of naturalized citizenship; provincial representation in the national Assembly and demarcation of federal units.

Government has proposed amendment to Article 6 of the Constitution to include all the mother tongues in the schedule of the Constitution on the recommendation of the Language Commission. The Commission shall duly select and identify the languages. Likewise, in regards to citizenship debate, the government has proposed amendment to the issue of naturalised citizenship by marriage.

In the third issue relating to the representation to the National Assembly, the proposed amendment will ensure representation of three including a woman, a ‘dalit’ and differently abled person from every province to the Assembly. This shall take the total number of representatives from the 7 provinces to 21. The remaining 35 shall be allocated seats based on the proportion to the population of the concerned province. Of the 35 members, 14 will have to be women as provided by federal law.

The fourth issue covered in the amendment proposal relate to the delineation of federal units. To make this feasible, Schedule 4 of the new Constitution is sought to be amended. Similarly, changes have been made in the delineation of province numbers 4 and 5, according to which the eastern part of Bardaghat in Nawalparasi and the eastern part of Rukum are in Province 4, unlike in the former structure. Likewise, west of Bardaghat in Nawalparasi, Rupendehi, Kapilvastu, Dang, Banke and Bardia are in Province number 5.

It has been reported that the dissenting political parties had been consulted while finalising the Constitution Amendment proposal and consultations will continue in future also.

Opposition Parties take to Streets over Province 5 Split-Plans

As the government geared up to register the Constitutional amendment proposals which entails splitting Province 5 in a bid to address the row over Provincial boundaries, protests erupted in several parts of the country. Clashes between the supporters of the ruling parties and the main opposition have been reported in several areas. CPN-UML chairman K.P. Sharma Oli directed his party to get ready for protests against the proposals particularly on the issue of redrawing of provincial boundaries. Oli has severely criticised the amendment proposal.

The protestors maintain opposition to taking the Nawalpur area away from Province 4. As per government’s plan, the Nawalpur area which is currently under Province 4 will go to Province 5 which will comprise 6 districts – Nawalparasi, Rupandehi, Kapilvastu, Banke, Dang and Bardiya. In the present provincial set-up, half of Nawalparasi lies in Province 4 where the Nawalpur area falls. Protests are taking place to protect and put pressure on the government to keep Province 5 intact.

Likewise, a key constituent of Sanyukta Loktrantrik Madhesi Morcha (SLMM) which had demanded amendment in the Constitution since quite long has out rightly rejected the government’s proposal saying it does not address the concern of the agitating parties. Upendra Yadav, Chairman of the Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum Nepal has said, “We have been cheated in the past and we do not want to be duped again”. He has warned of disowning the Constitution amendment proposal if it failed to address all the concerns raised by the agitating parties in entirety. Differences have also surfaced within the agitating Madhes-based parties

Amid all this, the government ‘s plan to register the amendment proposal “at any cost” is fraught with danger, as it could trigger polarization which might have direct impact on Constitution implementation. PM Dahal invited K.P. Sharma Oli “to convince him” to support the government’s plan of registering the amendment proposal. The overture was out rightly rejected.

BHUTAN

National Council not Satisfied with Agricultural Sector Growth

A report by Natural Resources and Environment Committee (NREC) of the National Council (NC) highlights issues plaguing the agricultural sector and offers recommendation to improve agricultural output. Presently, the review of Agricultural Policy report in the House, the committee chairman and Pemegatshed MP, Jigmi Rinzin said the agricultural sector has been the backbone of the economy with about 70% of the population living in rural areas. The committee has stressed the need to further increase the Plan outlay allocations to agricultural sector. “It is very clear that an employment-criterion was not considered while making the resource allocations among the sectors in addition to the revenue”. Investments in the agriculture sector from the financial institutions are minuscule, although it has increased over the past successive years. Clearly, given India’s expertise in this field, there seems to be opportunity for greater cooperation in this sector.

BANGLADESH

Visit of Indian Defence Minister to Bangladesh

An 11 member high-powered delegation under the Defence Minister Shri Manohar Parrikar visited Bangladesh from November 30-December 1, 2016. He was accompanied by Vice Chief of Army and Air Force, Deputy Chief of Navy, DG Coast Guards and senior defence ministry officials. This was the first ever visit by an Indian Defence Minister to Bangladesh since its inception and came in the backdrop of the recent settlement of the land and maritime boundaries and increased exchange between the defence forces of the two countries. The visit also indicates the importance which the Modi government places on the relationship with its neighbours.

During the visit, Shri Parrikar called on the President and Prime Minister and held talks on defence related cooperation between the two countries. The Defence Minister proposed a number of new indicatives to enhance the capacity and capability of Bangladesh Armed Forces. He conveyed India’s full support to the vision of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to achieve self-reliance as envisioned by her government.

A range of initiatives for enhancing training engagements, conduct of joint exercises, ‘Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief activities’ and ‘Blue Economy’ initiatives were discussed. The Defence Minister, while addressing a gathering said, “Our destinies are convergent. We therefore need to cooperate in all spheres as a stable and prosperous Bangladesh is beneficial to India and the region as a whole”. Shri Parrikar regarded terrorism as a malady which has effect on India and Bangladesh. Countries supporting and encouraging terrorism have always suffered in the long run. He complimented PM Sheikh Hasina and her government on its policy of “Zero tolerance” to terrorism.

Dhaka seeks International Intervention to end Rohingya Crisis

Bangladesh has sought international support to end the Rohingya crisis and assistance for social reconciliation and economic uplift of the people in bordering Rakhine state of Myanmar. In an urgently called meeting of foreign envoys based in Dhaka, Foreign Minister Mehmood Ali sought international support to resolve the long standing challenges includes the current crises situation involving Muslim community in Buddhist majority Rakhine.

SRI LANKA

Galle Dialogue 2016 Commences

'Galle Dialogue 2016', an International Maritime Conference of the Sri Lanka Navy, is being held for the seventh consecutive year under aegis of the Ministry of Defence. Representatives from 40 countries including seven navy commanders are among the more than 120 foreign participants attending this year's conference held on the theme 'Fostering Strategic Maritime Partnerships'. India is represented by Navy chief Admiral Sunil Lamba.

National Unity Government headed by Sirisena-Wickremesinghe accords high importance in fostering stronger partnerships among the maritime community. On numerous occasions, Sri Lankan officials have maintained that cooperation and coordination of nations is important to ensure the security of the Indian Ocean. Sri Lanka's strategic location in the Indian Ocean had been a connecting point of the East and West and the country is looking at the future with great expectations to regain its maritime glory in the Indian Ocean by mainly promoting trade and tourism.

Under its ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’, India is aiming at consolidating and enhancing the bilateral maritime security relations with Sri Lanka. India's perspectives on the benefits of Strategic Maritime Partnerships were already articulated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to Sri Lanka in March 2015. On ground, there exists a robust Naval cooperation between India and Sri Lanka encompassing a wide span which includes operational interactions through bilateral exercises, coordinated patrolling along the common maritime border, training, port calls, capacity building and capacity augmentation initiatives.

Signs of Development on Constitution Making

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has presented the reports of the six subcommittees on Fundamental Rights, Judiciary, Finance, Law and Order, Public Service and Centre Periphery Relations. These were appointed by the Constitutional Assembly to assist in evolving a new Constitution. PM Wickremesinghe revealed during a talk that The Constitutional Assembly was looking at the possibility of increasing the number of MPs in the legislature to 240, where 60 percent would be elected under the First Past the Post (FPP) system and the remaining 40 percent from the national list.

Government Takes Quick Measures to Assuage Perception of Racism in Lanka

The perception of racism raising its head once again has spread fear in ethnic Lankan minorities. These concerns stemmed from the behavior of two Buddhist monks in the North and East over the past two weeks. Although it would be hasty to draw a general conclusion based upon two unfortunate incidents in a country of over 20 million population, the fact remains that such developments vitiate the social harmony and impacts the reconciliation process. It also generates a wave of fear and suspicion propelling all ethnic groups to act in isolated manner. Many peripheral hardline forces have started re- asserting themselves as a form of protest and/or to project their might. Analysts argue that such trends could have led to the open birthday celebration of slain LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran by large number of Jaffna University students, academic and non-academic staff, despite the Sri Lankan government’s warning that action would be taken against anyone trying to take part in the event.

These developments are a monumental challenge to the National Unity Government which has committed itself to accountability and reconciliation. Also the impressions of emboldening of ethno-nationalist majoritarian groups, typically led by one or more Buddhist monks, if remains unchecked, can trigger new wave of racism after a relative lull of 3 years.

In government’s response, many authorities including the President, have made it clear that inflammatory remarks such as these have no place in a culture of Sri Lanka. As an immediate measure, government is set to initiate a dialogue among various ethnic and religious groups in the country to ease the tension. President Sirisena has given instructions to the law enforcement agencies and security services to arrest those who incite racism and religious extremism in the country and take legal action against them. Minister of Justice and Buddhasasana, Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe has confirmed that various groups, including the Bodu Bala Sena and Ravana Balaya, had agreed to participate in the effort to resolve issues through dialogue. Government also wants legislation against hate speech, which is already an offence under the penal code, upgraded to international standards. Another State Minister Lakshman Yapa Abeywardena has said that no extremist group will be allowed to instigate racism in the country and those creating such situation will be treated as terrorists. Because of these quick responses from highest offices, diaspora or international community has refrained to question Unity Government.

Sri Lanka Seeks Donald Trump's Help to Drop War Crimes Charges

Sri Lanka's President Maithripala Sirisena's office has revealed that he had sent a "special message" to US president-elect Trump seeking his intervention at the UN Human Rights Council, where Sri Lanka faces censure for wartime atrocities. Sirisena said he was making a similar appeal to the incoming UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. The rights council has asked Sri Lanka to ensure credible investigations into war crimes, pay reparations to victims and their families and ensure reconciliation after 37 years of ethnic war which claimed at least 100,000 lives.

Investigation into war crimes is a sensitive political issue in Sri Lanka. There have been allegations that Sri Lankan troops killed up to 40,000 Tamils during the final battle against separatist Tamil Tiger rebels in 2009. The present political dispensation has taken many confidence building measures in the direction of reconciliation. But they are required to do a tight rope walk between assuaging local Sinhala constituency on one hand and winning the trust of the Tamil diaspora and international community on other.

Although Sri Lanka has promised to set up special courts to address issues of accountability, the proposed judicial mechanisms is yet to be established. Last month, President Sirisena had asked for more time to investigate war crimes during a visit by outgoing Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka, it may be mentioned, has already been able to tone down a US-initiated censure resolution soon after coming to power in January 2015. Against this backdrop and given Trump’s approach of restraining US initiatives in distant countries, Sirisena’s move to secure President elect Trump's help to have the allegations against Sri Lanka dropped, is a pragmatic approach in tune with his previous actions.

MALDIVES

FICCI Pitches 5 Major Proposals to Maldives

Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) has pitched five major proposals to Maldives to promote further collaboration in tourism and trade. The most significant of these proposals is direct flight operations between Maldives and multiple Indian destinations. Such a step is bound to boost the number of tourist arrivals from India. It will also help to dispel a high-class, luxury tourism label of Maldives that discourages a lot of Indians from visiting there. That is why the proposals recommend starting direct flights to Maldives from New Delhi and Bombay and establish budget hotels in Maldives. FICCI’S proposals are as follows:-

1. Finding areas of collaboration in trade between the two countries in addition to fishing, cement, and agricultural produce.
2. Signing of agreements to secure business assurance, resolution to issues, investment protection and promotion.
3. Increasing visits between the two countries by business delegations, and increasing trade discussions.
4. Increasing number of flights to Maldives, and increasing number of budget hotels accessible to the Indian middleclass.
5. Providing training and experience to Maldives in health and education via FICCI.