Myanmar Round Up: November 2023

Dr Cchavi Vasisht, Research Associate, VIF

December 19 , 2023 Views: 539 Comments: 0

The attacks since Operation 1027 represent the biggest challenge faced by the military since it seized power in 2021. On 27 October 2023, the Northern Alliance or “Three Brotherhood Alliance'' comprising the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Arakan Army simultaneously attacked Myanmar military positions in the Shan cities which set the stage on fire and soon spread to other parts of northern and northwest Myanmar. During the month, the regime lost more than 300 positions as the resistance offensive expanded from northern Shan State to Sagaing Region, Kayah, Chin and Rakhine states. The alliance claimed that they would not stop until the military dictatorship ended. This has led to continuous incidents of violence and attacks. Despite military retaliation, the struggle from the side of Ethnic Armed Groups continues along with the PDFs. The write up given below attempts to discuss these developments including what has happened on the international front. One of the most important events during the month was the conduct of the first naval drills between Myanmar and Russia.

Political and Domestic Situation

Since 27 October, MNDAA, TNLA and AA claimed to have seized dozens of outposts and towns, and blocked important trade routes to China. Kawlin in Sagaing region is the first administrative capital seized by the resistance forces. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) also joined the attacks on its military.^[1] On the same day, the KNLA and resistance allies attacked military targets in the town, where KNU Brigade 6 is based.^[2] The MNDAA spokesperson Li Jar Wen stated that there was no need for negotiation with the military as it was at its weakest.^[3] Simultaneously the urban resistance groups were specifically targeting pro military leaders. During the month, U Than Tun, 54, the chair of the pro-military New National Democracy Party (NNDP) in Yangon was killed.^[4]

Political analysts have stated that the Brotherhood Alliance timed their attack carefully, right after an incident in Laukkaing which waived off China's patience with the military. For the past year the Chinese government has been pushing the military government to shut down the scam centers. Chinese pressure persuaded many of the Shan groups, like the Wa, to hand people suspected of involvement in the scams to the police in China. More than 4,000 were sent over the border between August and October 2023. The Brotherhood Alliance saw this opportunity and promised they would shut down the scam centers to persuade China.^[5]

On the other hand, the military deputy information minister, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, confirmed that some military bases and security outposts came under assault. But the statement fell short of stating the military was facing severe setbacks. Later on 29 November, military chief Min Aung Hlaing said that the weeks-long assault on Loikaw had shown "excessive strength". But he maintained the Loikaw region was "under control". Additionally, Myint Swe, who was appointed as President after a coup in 2021, in an emergency meeting held by the ruling military council stated that it is the most serious setback suffered by the military since it seized power in February 2021.

In response, the military used rampant airstrikes to gain back control. The military even patrolled the streets of Yangon along with armoured vehicles. The ethnic armies have also stated that the military used chemical weapons against them. On 13 November, the MNDAA stated that the military dropped four chemical bombs in Namsalat village, Hseni Township, northern Shan State. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), also reported the use of a chemical bomb on its troops at the Mong Kyat camp in Lashio Township, on 04 November and Sakhan Thit hill base in Namkham Township on 18 November. However, the military spokesman, Major General Zaw Min Tun, rejected the accusations.^[6] The defeats on multiple fronts even prompted the regime to issue a security alert. The order called for every ministry to divide staff into two groups, one to conduct rescue and relief operations and the other to keep the administration running. Zaw Min Tun, however, claimed the order was merely resistance propaganda issued to coincide with attacks. The Irrawaddy also learned from sources in Naypyitaw that the regime has issued secret orders calling back 14,000 troops from other areas to defend its nerve centre.^[7]

Additionally, the military took control of the Broadcasting Council, the authority in charge of overseeing television and radio media. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) denounced this move of the regime to strengthen its grip over the media. On 16 November, the text was amended which now provides for military cadres to be automatically appointed to the council board.^[8] Furthermore, the military announced that anyone using unlicensed satellite devices and other internet services will be prosecuted under the Telecommunication Law. The regime has blocked mobile access in parts of Sagaing and Magwe regions and Kachin, Chin and Kayah State. But since June, internet access has been available in parts of Kayah State using Starlink, Elon Musk’s satellite firm. The National Unity Government also stated that it was providing internet to 50 townships in Sagaing and Magwe regions and Kayah State in an attempt to offset military blockages.^[9]

International Reactions

The UN expressed concern about the ongoing fighting between the military and ethnic minority groups in northern Myanmar, which has left civilian casualties and displaced more than 30,000 people. Due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, the EU released €10.5 million in humanitarian aid to address the needs of people in Myanmar and of Rohingya refugees living in Bangladesh. Out of this new funding, 7 million is allocated for Myanmar, and the remaining 3.5 million for Bangladesh.^[10] Additionally, five European countries and Canada joined the genocide case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that accuses Myanmar of committing genocide against the Rohingya. Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Britain filed a joint declaration of intervention in the case. The group cited “common interest in the accomplishment of the high purposes” of the 1948 convention on the prevention and punishment of genocide.^[11]

On 15 November, a regional meeting of defence ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was held in Jakarta. Indonesia's defence minister Prabowo Subianto urged ASEAN members to find a durable solution to the crisis in Myanmar. The leaders also called for a ceasefire in Gaza. Indonesia hosted partners from the United States, China, Japan, and South Korea who were part of the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus on 16 November.^[12]

Following these meetings, Indonesia’s government also hosted meetings with some of the major stakeholders in Myanmar, including representatives of ethnic resistance forces and the National Unity Government (NUG) as well as interlocutors representing the military administration, on 20-22 November in Jakarta. This involved parallel meetings with an aim to push forward the implementation of ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus peace plan, which calls for the convening of inclusive dialogues for solution to the crisis in Myanmar. During the meetings each gave a “positive indication” about holding an inclusive dialogue.^[13] However, more than 600 civil society organisations criticised the ASEAN which was calling for an inclusive dialogue as it undermined the sacrifices and will of Myanmar’s citizens. The joint statement by the civil society group also criticised ASEAN for failing to hold the military accountable for committing crimes against humanity and war crimes. Additionally, the NUG dismissed Indonesia’s claim that key stakeholders in Myanmar were to engage in “inclusive dialogue”. It stated that it has no plan to engage in dialogue with the military and urged the international community to not endorse Indonesia’s ‘inclusive dialogue’ solution.^[14]

While the crisis continues in Myanmar, there have been numerous reports of online scam. During the month, Thailand’s deputy police chief visited Myanmar to coordinate the repatriation of 162 Thai nationals who are stuck amid fighting near the Chinese border after being rescued from human traffickers. These nationals were trapped in the Shan state and many were forced into prostitution.^[15] It must also be noted that as a result of fighting there was movement of thousands of refugees from Myanmar to Thailand, but the Thailand government pushed them back at the border. After the February 2021 coup in Myanmar, at least 45,000 additional Myanmar refugees have fled to Thailand. While the Thai government has allowed these new arrivals to stay in informal temporary shelters near the border, it has also intermittently pushed them back. The Human Rights Groups have argued that Thailand must provide protection and support to all refugees, including permitting the UNHCR to undertake refugee status determination. These pushbacks may amount to a breach of Thailand’s obligations as a party to the UN Convention Against Torture and violate the customary international law principle prohibiting refoulement.^[16] Apart from Thailand, Malaysia's government evacuated a total of 121 people, suspected of being victims of job scams. There are seven more remaining who were unable to be rescued. The evacuation mission was carried out through the Myanmar-China border amid continuous fighting in northern Myanmar.^[17]

China’s Involvement in Myanmar

Following the attacks by the ethnic armies in northern Myanmar, Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Nong Rong visited Myanmar and held talks with the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Than Shwe and Deputy Foreign Minister Lwin Oo. China urged the military to cooperate and bring a ceasefire to the ongoing violence. They raised concerns about the safety of the lives and property of Chinese border area residents, and urged the military to take effective measures to strengthen the security of Chinese personnel, institutions and projects in Myanmar.^[18] Despite China reaching out to the military for resolution of the crisis, it has been argued that the attacks by the Brotherhood Alliance members could not have happened without China’s assistance. The alliance relies on China for arms and this operation may have bearing on support from the Chinese side. This also means that the Chinese government is frustrated with the military’s inaction on online scam centers in Shan State and slow progress on BRI. The incidents of online scams have also troubled Thailand and Malaysia as stated above.

Following the visit of China's ambassador to Myanmar, Chen Hai to meet Myanmar's military-appointed foreign minister, Than Swe, in Naypyitaw, a convoy on the Chinese side of the border in Muse town went up in flames. Following this, China's military carried out combat training activities on its side of the border with Myanmar. The training aimed to test the rapid manoeuverability, border sealing and fire strike capabilities of theatre troops. Myanmar military spokesman Zaw Min Tun stated that the drills aimed to maintain stability and peace near the border.^[19] It must be noted that on 05 November, the first ever Myanmar- Russia Maritime Security Exercise (MARUEX) was also conducted in the Andaman Sea. The drills focused on the “prevention of air, water surface and underwater dangers, and maritime security measures”. Ahead of the drills, Min Aung Hlaing met Russia’s navy chief Admiral Nikolai Evmenov to extend support.^[20] It underscores the growing military and strategic relationship between Russia and Myanmar.

While China is playing its dual tactics in Myanmar, for the first time a protest was staged against the Chinese government outside Yangon City Hall and the Chinese Embassy in Yangon accusing China of backing an ethnic alliance that has been delivering heavy defeats against regime troops in northern Shan State. On 19 November, by members of the Patriotic Monks Union (Yangon) and Myanmar Nationalist Organisation, the regime-backed nationalists took part in the protest. It was the first time China has been named openly in public. The protests, approved by the military regime, marked certain displeasure with China, for its role with the alliance as well as buying of rare earth elements from the Kachin Independence Army.^[21] However, military spokesman Zaw Min Tun later said the protesters were opposed to the insurgents and did not refer to their call for China not to support the rebels. He also accused the Western media of trying to destroy Myanmar's relations with China. But it has also been reported that in an emergency meeting of the National Defense and Security Council on 08 November, it was stated that the ethnic alliance was using China-made drones. Later on 15 November, the Chinese Embassy demanded that the Myanmar regime work out a practical and effective plan to ensure border stability.^[22]

India and Myanmar Engagements

As the attacks by the Brotherhood Alliance spread to border areas of India, thousands of refugees further entered Manipur and Mizoram during the month. According to the district administration, the lack of a proper border fence in Kamjong district is one major problem in preventing illegal infiltration from crossing over to the Indian side.^[23] As a result of the military camps being overrun by ethnic armies, many Myanmar military personnel crossed and entered Indian borders. In batches, a total of 74 Myanmar army personnel were airlifted by defence authorities to Moreh in Manipur to Tamu in Myanmar.

In the backdrop of Myanmar witnessing conflicts in the border areas, the Foreign Office Consultations were conducted. An Indian delegation led by Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra and Myanmar by Deputy Foreign Minister U Lwin Oo, stated that India supports Myanmar for its transition towards a federal democracy. During the talks, India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Arindam Bagchi reiterated the call for the return of peace, stability, and democracy in Myanmar. The attacks by Chin forces on 13 November in Rikhawdar, Falam Township, and Khawmawi Township along the Indian border, has forced movement of people from across the border.^[24] Apart from the security and refugees crossing borders, stability in Myanmar is crucial for the connectivity and infrastructure projects. For instance, connectivity from Paletwa in Chin state to Zorinpui in Northeast India’s Mizoram via roadways will be contingent on the security situation in the Chin state.

To conclude, the unprecedented victory of the Three Brotherhood Alliance along with other PDFs and ethnic armies has raised questions on the control the military possesses in the country. The attacks have further resulted in the humanitarian crisis that is further aggravated due to road blockages, destruction of infrastructure, as well as safety and security of humanitarian workers. The military has intensified the airstrikes according to the report, put together by Burma Affairs and Conflict Study. The report stated that in the nine month period between October 2022 and June 2023, as many as 395 air strikes were conducted by the Military Council. The report pointed out that the highest number of such air strikes took place in the Sagaing region, followed by Karen state and Chin state. As most of these regions are located close to the Indian border, there were reports from the residents of the Indian side that few of the bombs were dropped on the Indian side as well. But the Assam Rifles denied it.^[25] This ongoing crisis is fast becoming a regional problem and the ASEAN leaders along with regional players like India and China must play a pragmatic role. Furthermore, the crisis within the country can be resolved by an inclusive dialogue involving all the stakeholders.

References