Strategic Discussion| Global and Regional Implications of the Ukraine Crisis

The VIF convened a timely, two-part virtual strategic discussion on 24 February 2022 with a follow-up session on 3 March 2022 in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The discussion was focussed on assessing the Global and Regional Implications of the Ukraine crisis following the events of 24 February wherein Russian ground forces moved into Ukraine from multiple sides and seized control of the key port city of Kherson. The discussions were moderated by Dr. Arvind Gupta and saw in attendance Amb. Arun Singh, Amb. Ashok Kantha, Amb. Satish Chandra, Lt. Gen. Rakesh Sharma, Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli, Amb. P.S. Raghavan, AM Diptendu Chaudhuri, Lt. Gen. Ravi Sawhney, Cmd. Gopal Suri and Gp. Capt. Naval Jagota.

In the ensuing discussion, the discussants deliberated upon the rationale for Russia’s actions and its military objectives in the region. India’s delicate position as it walks the tightrope between the West and Russia was also assessed and it was determined that so far India has displayed great nimbleness in its balanced position and will have to brace itself for the economic implications of the war and the following sanctions. With regional geopolitics in flux, the US and the Chinese positions were discussed and the trajectory of the great power relations between the two was assessed. As a significant exporter of gas to Europe, the implications of Russia’s military intervention on the European energy markets and its cascading global effects were also discussed at length.

In the follow-up discussion that was convened a week after the commencement of the Russo-Ukraine war, the strategic group members assessed the situation with a special focus on Russia’s military performance and objectives. The discussants reflected upon the effectiveness of Russia’s military strategy and the options and lessons for India. The domestic and global impact of the western sanctions was discussed in great detail and China’s nuanced position in the face of the unfolding events was also appraised.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has instigated several geopolitical and economic upheavals and will significantly impact the global security architecture in the days to come. The discussions highlighted that it is increasingly pertinent for India to be agile and deftly handle the evolving situation while focussing on tangibly manoeuvring her own interests. It was recommended that India goes beyond rhetoric on talks of self-reliance and takes this as a wake-up call to seriously invest in indigenous technology and R&D.