Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 15 March - 21 March 2021

Economic

Global middle class shrinks for first time since 1990s

The global middle class shrank for the first time in decades last year because of the Covid-19 pandemic, with almost two-thirds of households in developing economies reporting they suffered a loss in income, according to two new estimates based on World Bank data. In a study published March 18, researchers at the non-partisan Pew Research Center found that the ranks of the global middle class – those earning $10-$50 per day – fell by 90 million people to almost 2.5 billion last year. That helped swell the ranks of the poor, or those living on less than $2 a day, by 131 million, Pew estimated. The Pew data on the middle class actually understates the impact because an estimated 62 million high-income people, or those earning $50 or more per day, dropped into the middle tier as a result of the pandemic, said Rakesh Kochhar, the study’s author. That meant the number of people who went into the crisis as members of the global middle class and fell out actually topped 150 million last year, according to Pew’s estimates — more than the population of France and Germany combined.
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Pakistan announces plan to build two hydro-powered cryptocurrency ‘mining farms’

In an attempt to profit from the soaring cryptocurrency market, Pakistan’s government has revealed plans to construct two regional hydroelectric-powered “mining farms” to encourage people to visit the area. With cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin hitting record highs and investors already reaping the rewards, the Pakistani government is looking to seize the moment and encourage tourism and boost local revenue through its proposed new venture. The government’s advisor on science and technology, Zia Ullah Bangash, revealed the plan to construct the sites in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, allowing people to visit the area, “earn some money and have the province earn from that as well.” It is not currently clear how long the construction of the mining farms will take, when it will begin or how much it will cost. Mining farms are vast data centres that house numerous computers focussed on mining one or several cryptocurrencies. Due to the energy level required, it can be an expensive process, and there are challenges too, such as ensuring the machines do not overheat.
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UAE reveals $81bn industrialization plan

The UAE aims to increase its industrial revenues to 300 billion dirhams ($81.68 billion) over 10 years. Dubai Ruler Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan announced the plan on Twitter. The strategy aims to raise the manufacturing sector’s contribution to 300 billion dirhams from the existing 133 billion dirhams, they said. It will be led by the UAE Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology. ‘Make It In The Emirates’ — the UAE’s industrial identity to support domestic manufacturing, was also launched on March 22. The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the need for Gulf States to accelerate their diversification plans while at the same time reducing their reliance on imports.
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US warns Beijing it will enforce sanctions over Iranian oil: FT

The Biden administration has told Beijing it will enforce Trump-era sanctions against Iranian oil as shipments from the regime to China have soared, the Financial Times reported.Iranian oil exports to China have been increasing “for some time now”, the FT said, citing a senior administration official familiar with the Iran issue. “We’ve told the Chinese that we will continue to enforce our sanctions,” the senior administration official said. “There will be no tacit green light.” China imported about 478,000 barrels of oil a day from Iran on average in February, according to data from energy research company Kpler. The research company said that Iran had exported crude and condensate — an ultralight oil — to China by disguising its barrels most recently as Omani ones, the FT reported.
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China’s green goal still beholden to coal

At last year’s UN General Assembly, China agreed to progressively cut out coal and promote alternative cleaner forms of energy to accomplish carbon neutrality by 2060. China’s carbon dioxide emissions, which hit 10 billion tonnes in 2018 and 2019 according to the Global Carbon Budget project, are officially projected to peak in 2030 or earlier, a trajectory President Xi Jingping underscored during his UN address on the issue. But Beijing failed to unveil a detailed action plan to hit those green goals when policymakers and deputies of the National People’s Congress (NPC) endorsed a new five-year plan last week. China’s social and economic development plans are full of economic recovery and livelihood targets but less detailed on how planners intend to reduce carbon emissions, with only a few lines recapping Xi’s pledges made at the UN. This has fuelled suspicion among observers that the lack of a tangible decarbonization roadmap may signal China plans more carbon-fired growth and that its stated goal of an 18% reduction in CO2 per yuan of GDP by 2025 is likely a smokescreen.
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Erdogan sacks another central bank chief after sharp rate hike

President Tayyip Erdogan abruptly sacked Turkey's central bank chief on March 20, two days after a sharp interest rate hike to head off inflation, replacing him with a former ruling party lawmaker and critic of tight monetary policy. It was the third time since mid-2019 that Erdogan - who has repeatedly called for low rates - has ousted a bank governor. Outgoing governor Naci Agbal, appointed less than five months ago, had won market praise by aggressively raising the policy rate by 875 basis points to 19%, the highest of any big economy. His shock removal, announced in the early hours March 20, comes after the bank hiked rates by a more-than-expected 200 points on March 18 in a "front-loaded" move meant to head off inflation near 16% and a dipping lira. The country's Official Gazette announced that Erdogan had replaced him with Sahap Kavcioglu, a former member of parliament for Erdogan's ruling AK Party (AKP). The former banker has publicly criticised Agbal's hawkish policy. A lack of monetary independence has exacerbated Turkey's boom-bust growth and record dollarization and helped keep inflation in double digits for most of the last four years, economists say.
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Ukraine blocks Chinese takeover of jet engine maker on US urging

Ukraine will halt the takeover of an aircraft engine maker by a Chinese company, responding to U.S. objections over the prospect of important military technology falling into Beijing's hands. Kyiv plans to return Motor Sich to Ukrainian control, ending efforts by Beijing Skyrizon Aviation to take management of the company, following a years’ long battle over the manufacturer's fate. "The Motor Sich enterprise will be returned to the Ukrainian people," Oleksiy Danilov, head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said after a March 11 meeting. "It will be returned to the ownership of the Ukrainian state in a legal, constitutional way in the near future." The decision angered China, which has grown increasingly important economically to Ukraine since Kyiv's relationship with Moscow broke down following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. But when tensions between Beijing and Washington forced a choice between the two, Kyiv prioritized its relationship with a crucial security partner. Russia, which bought military aircraft engines from Motor Sich, was the company's biggest customer before the Crimea annexation. The loss of this business left Motor Sich struggling, opening the door for Skyrizon.
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Elon Musk Says Tesla Won’t Share Data From Its Cars With China or U.S.

Tesla Inc. would never provide the U.S. government with data collected by its vehicles in China or other countries, Elon Musk, the company’s chief executive, told a high-level conference in China. Mr. Musk’s assurance that Chinese customer data is fully protected followed the Chinese government’s decision to restrict the use of Tesla cars by military personnel or employees of key state-owned companies. Beijing had acted out of concern that sensitive data such as images taken by the cars’ cameras could be sent to the U.S., according to people familiar with the matter. Speaking via video link March 20 to the government-backed China Development Forum in Beijing, Mr. Musk said that no U.S. or Chinese company would risk gathering sensitive or private data and then sharing it with their home government. “Whether it’s Chinese or U.S., the negative effects if a commercial company did engage in spying—the negative effects for that company would be extremely bad,” Mr. Musk said. If Tesla used its cars to spy in any country, he said, it would be shut down everywhere, which he called “a very strong incentive for us to be very confidential.”
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US warns companies to withdraw from Nord Stream 2

The US state department issued a statement on March 18 warning that "any entity involved in the Nord Steam 2 pipeline risks US sanctions and should immediately abandon work on the pipeline." The US sanctions regime aims to punish companies involved in Nord Stream 2's installation, certification and insurance. Around 20 companies, mostly insurers, have reportedly left the project in recent months in response to the threat. The state department described the project as a "bad deal – for Germany, for Ukraine and for our central and eastern European allies and partners." "The department is tracking efforts to complete the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and is evaluating information regarding entities that appear to be involved," it said. "As multiple US administrations have made clear, this pipeline is a Russian geopolitical project intended to divide Europe and weaken European energy security."
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Strategic

China marks 120-year comeback with fireworks in Alaska

After the Anchorage meeting, the People's Daily posted a collage of two photos on the Chinese social media site Weibo that went viral. The image contrasts the signing of the Boxer Protocol between the Qing Dynasty and the eight-nation alliance in 1901 with the latest Anchorage meeting. Being forced to pay massive reparations under the unfair treaty, Qing Dynasty was put on a path to its eventual demise. The signing of the Boxer Protocol brought in the most humiliating chapter in Chinese history. Now, China, which allowed brutal exploitation by Western powers 120 years ago, has bounced back. Yang and Foreign Minister Wang Yi travelled 6,000 kilometers to American soil to demonstrate the historic comeback, and the theatrics were a perfect fit for the 100-year anniversary of the Communist Party's founding this year. With a newly confident China facing Biden's new approach to foreign policy, the standoff between the two superpowers has now entered a new stage. It has evolved from an economic rivalry to one that encompasses broader world views.

Future balance of power haunts US as China bulks up

In recent years, the Pentagon has carried out multiple war games simulating a U.S.-China military conflict in Asia. Defense experts have been alarmed by the shift in military balance for several years. But since 2018, not only is the U.S. losing but losing faster, according to senior US defense officials.Japan, under previous Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, also quietly simulated multiple scenarios in its neighbourhood. To Tokyo's shock, it found that even when combined, the Self-Defense Forces and the American military presence in the Indo-Pacific faced an uphill battle against Beijing. It is in this grim reality that the new U.S. administration has identified the Indo-Pacific as the most consequential region for America's future and the Department of Defence’s priority theatre. Washington is not scrambling for meetings simply because it wants to pay more attention to Tokyo. The rush is because the Biden administration considers the Taiwan Strait and the area around Japan the world's biggest security hot spots. Adm. Philip Davidson, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, spoke openly about these worries at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing last week.
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U.S., China Climate Envoys to Meet Despite Frosty Alaska Talks

The U.S. and China are tiptoeing toward cooperation on climate change despite recent testy talks between senior officials, with the two governments’ chief climate envoys scheduled to come together for formal discussions this week. The U.S.’s climate envoy, John Kerry, will join his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, at a virtual climate conference on March 23. China will chair the meeting of top officials from dozens of European countries, the European Union and Canada. March 23’s conference, known as the Ministerial on Climate Action, is an annual meeting of major economies and polluters that was set up by China, the European Union and Canada after the U.S. moved to exit from the Paris accord in 2017. Mr. Kerry’s decision to join the event is intended to signal that the U.S. is back at the climate table, people familiar with the plans said. The event marks the first formal engagement between Messrs. Kerry and Xie in the two months since the Biden administration took office, though the two have spoken informally about the possibility of setting up a more formal mechanism of engagement to tackle climate issues, according to the people.
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Ghani to quit ‘only after polls’ as US mulls new government

President Ashraf Ghani has vowed to step down from power, but only after elections are held in Kabul — even as pressure mounts on the Afghan head of state to form an interim government that includes the Taliban. “If the Taliban are ready for elections tomorrow, we are also ready . . . But I am not ready to transfer the power to my successor without elections,” he said during an official event late on March 16. “Forty-two years of war is enough; we also have the right to live in peace like other civilized nations of the world,” Ghani said. His remarks came a day after talks with US special envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, who earlier this month had shared a proposal with key Afghan leaders, including Ghani, for the formation of a participatory government — which would include Taliban members — as part of efforts to end Washington’s engagement in Afghanistan, the longest war in American history. Government and Taliban delegates are set to attend Russia-sponsored talks on March 18— to expedite the peace process — and another international UN-led conference in Turkey, in April, as part of the proposed US plan for an interim setup before elections are held.
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U.S., NATO Allies to Discuss Plans to End War in Afghanistan

Biden administration officials will meet with allies this week on teetering plans to end the war in Afghanistan, turning to another top foreign policy challenge after a week that saw confrontations with Washington’s chief geopolitical rivals. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel this week to Brussels for meetings with allies from North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries who have backed the U.S. in the 20-year war. The trip follows an unannounced visit to Afghanistan on March 21 by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. U.S. officials haven’t said whether they would meet a May 1 deadline for U.S. troops to depart Afghanistan, set under the Trump administration as part of talks with leaders of the insurgent Taliban movement. Biden administration officials have indicated repeatedly that removing troops by then will be difficult, given continued high levels of violence. There are at least 2,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan and 6,500 NATO troops, and allies have said they would depend on U.S. logistical support to withdraw troops. The State Department said Russia and China would be among issues to be discussed when Mr. Blinken meets European counterparts starting March 21.
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Biden ‘clearly doesn’t want good relations’ with Russia, Kremlin declares, after US President backs ‘Putin is a killer’ comments

The Kremlin has claimed that comments from American President Joe Biden, in which he said he believes his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to be a “killer,” is proof Washington isn’t serious about relations with the country. Speaking to journalists on March 18, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was no precedent for the remarks in the history of the two nations. “These are very bad statements by the US president,” he added. “He clearly doesn’t want to establish a relationship with our country, and we will proceed on that basis.” A joint report by Washington’s spy agencies, published the day before, alleged that Russia was behind a campaign to “denigrate” Biden’s reputation during the campaign. The Kremlin has blasted the allegations, insisting it had not engaged in political smears against any candidates. On March 17 evening, Russia’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, was recalled to Moscow for talks on the future of ties with Washington. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that consultations were needed “to analyse what to do and where to head in the context of relations with the US.”
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China wins high marks from Russians, scoring 74% favourability

An overwhelming majority of Russians see China in a positive light, recent survey data shows, bucking global sentiment as Beijing faces criticism over its geopolitical assertiveness, human rights record and handling of COVID-19. Seventy-four percent of Russians surveyed by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Moscow-based Levada Center said they view China favourably. Likewise, 40% named China as their country's closest friend -- the top percentage across all nations. By contrast, only 45% of Russians held positive views of the European Union, while the U.S. scored even lower at 39%. The survey was conducted in two parts, in August 2020 and January-February 2021, garnering about 1,600 responses each. The findings, released late last week, come as Russia and China show increasingly close cooperation. Although many Western analysts and some Russian ones have argued that Russia risks becoming a junior partner to China as their relationship deepens, few Russians appear to share this concern. An earlier study by the Levada Center found that China enjoyed its greatest popularity among Russians between the ages of 18 and 24, with 78% of respondents holding favourable views versus 12% who expressed negative opinions.
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Philippines accuses Beijing of ‘militarizing’ South China Sea with ‘provocative’ presence of 220 naval vessels

The Philippines’ defense minister has called on Beijing to withdraw boats detected in the South China Sea, describing their presence in the disputed area as a violation of his nation’s maritime rights. Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana claimed on March 21 that 220 boats belonging to Chinese forces were operating within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone and appealed to Beijing to remove them. The vessels have encroached on the Philippines’ “sovereign territory” and their presence is “a clear provocative action of militarizing the area,” Lorenzana said in a statement. The defense secretary added that the Philippine Coast Guard would work with the government to undertake “appropriate action” aimed at “maintaining peace and stability” in areas of the South China Sea which are included in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone.The body of water has become a major point of conflict between Beijing and some of its regional neighbours, as well as the United States. The Philippines’ growing frustration with China comes as the country attempts to negotiate with Washington over the presence of US troops on its soil.
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North Korea advises Biden administration not to ‘cause a stink’ if it hopes to reboot talks

Pyongyang has issued a peculiarly worded warning to Washington, telling the Biden administration that it should tread lightly if it’s sincere about wanting to restart dialogue. “We take this opportunity to warn the new US administration trying hard to give off powder smell in our land,” Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, said in a statement released by state media. “If it wants to sleep in peace for [the] coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink at its first step.” The colourful message was issued after the Biden administration announced that attempts to reach out to Pyongyang have so far been unsuccessful. On March 15, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said that the Biden administration was committed to reducing the “risk of escalation” with North Korea but has not received any response to their diplomatic overtures. According to Psaki, there has been no “active” dialogue between the US and North Korea for over a year. The verbal ribbing from North Korea comes amid joint military drills held by South Korean and US troops that began last week.
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Moon's plan to revive peace initiative through Tokyo Games faces hitch

President Moon Jae-in's bid to take the Tokyo Olympic Games as an opportunity to revive the peace initiative toward North Korea is facing uncertainties, as the sporting event appears to be losing steam on Japan's decision to bar overseas spectators. Moon has been successful in using the Olympic Games as a tool to draw North Korea out for talks with not only South Korea but also the US. Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, visited the 2018 Pyeong Chang Winter Games, leading to a series of inter-Korean and US-North Korea summits later that year. Experts said March 22, however, that could not be the case for the Tokyo Games, as the event is losing steam by shutting its doors to visitors from overseas and the Moon administration is too optimistic about North Korea's preparedness to send its athletes to compete amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Tokyo Games organizers said, March 20 that overseas visitors will not be allowed to attend the event due to concerns over the pandemic. Moon had earlier said the Tokyo Olympics could be a chance for dialogue between the two Koreas, the US and Japan, and Seoul would cooperate for the success of the Tokyo Olympics.
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Suga urges LDP to close ranks as Lower House election looms

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga called on his Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers to unite at a party convention on March 21 as LDP factions are increasingly vying with each other in fielding candidates for the Lower House general election this year. The election must be held by October, when the four-year terms of members of the Lower House expire. “The general election must take place by autumn at the latest,” Suga said at the convention held at a Tokyo hotel. “I am determined to spearhead the party to fight through the end.” One of the problems the ruling party needs to sort out soon is there are more than 10 single-seat constituencies in which it has not settled on a candidate to run. This is partly because the Nikai faction, led by LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai, is trying to field candidates in as many constituencies as possible to widen its clout. Nikai is a key figure underpinning the Suga administration. Some electoral districts have no LDP lawmakers representing them since those that did have been forced to resign due to scandals.
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EU ambassadors approve first China sanctions since Tiananmen Square crackdown, diplomats say

European Union ambassadors have agreed to sanction four as-yet-unnamed Chinese officials and one organization, in relation to alleged human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang. EU foreign ministers will vote on March 22. On March 17, EU envoys approved travel bans and asset freezes on four Chinese individuals and one entity, however the names will remain unpublished until formal approval is given by EU foreign ministers who will vote on the matter next week. “Restrictive measures against serious human rights violations and abuses adopted,” one EU diplomat told Reuters. Broader concerns have been expressed by nations including the US, Canada and the Netherlands, all of whom have characterized Beijing’s treatment of the province’s Muslim minority population as genocide. The Chinese mission to the EU warned against such “confrontational” behaviour on Twitter. If formally approved, it will be the first time the EU has introduced sanctions on China in three decades, when Brussels approved an arms embargo in 1989 following events in Tiananmen Square.
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Biden administration crafting plan to reset US-Palestinian ties

The Biden administration is crafting a plan aimed at resetting US ties with the Palestinians, which all but collapsed under former President Donald Trump, according to an internal draft memo seen by Reuters. Two people familiar with the State Department document, which was first reported by the United Arab Emirates-based newspaper The National, said it was still in an early “working stage” but could eventually form the basis for rolling back parts of Trump’s approach that Palestinians denounced as heavily biased in favour of Israel. Since President Joe Biden took office on January 20, his aides have said they intend to repair relations with the Palestinians. His administration has pledged to resume hundreds of millions of dollars in economic and humanitarian assistance and work towards reopening the Palestinians’ diplomatic mission in Washington, DC. One source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the document was a preliminary draft subject to revision and any final version would require inter-agency review.
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UAE brokering secret India-Pakistan peace roadmap: Officials

About 24 hours after military chiefs from India and Pakistan surprised the world last month with a rare joint commitment to respect a 2003 cease-fire agreement, the top diplomat of the United Arab Emirates popped over to New Delhi for a quick one-day visit. The official UAE readout of the Feb. 26 meeting gave few clues of what Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed spoke about with Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, noting they “discussed all regional and international issues of common interest and exchanged views on them.” Yet behind closed doors, the India-Pakistan cease-fire marked a milestone in secret talks brokered by the UAE that began months earlier, according to officials aware of the situation who asked not to be identified. Officials said expectations were low that the current detente would achieve much beyond the return of envoys and a resumption of trade through their Punjab land border. But this process appears to be the most concerted effort in years and comes as the Biden administration is seeking wider peace talks on Afghanistan — a place both countries for years have battled for influence.
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Biden dispatches US senator to Ethiopia over humanitarian crisis

United States President Joe Biden is sending Senator Chris Coons to Ethiopia to meet Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and convey the president’s “grave concerns” over the humanitarian crisis in the Tigray region, where thousands have died since the fighting began.Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said in a statement on March 18 that Coons – a long time Biden ally – would also consult with the African Union.Secretary of State Antony Blinken this month described acts carried out in the region as ethnic cleansing, an allegation rejected by Ethiopia. “Senator Coons will convey President Biden’s grave concerns about the humanitarian crisis and human rights abuses in the Tigray region and the risk of broader instability in the Horn of Africa,” Sullivan said. Coons said in a statement that he looked forward to engaging with Abiy and conveying Biden’s concern. “The United States is gravely concerned by the deteriorating situation in the Tigray, which threatens the peace and stability of the Horn of Africa region,” Coons said.
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Global Britain tilts to Indo-Pacific and bolsters nuclear arsenal

The U.K. has adopted a "tilt to the Indo-Pacific" and framed China as a "systemic challenge" in an integrated review of security, defense, development and foreign policy published March 16, billed as London's biggest rethink of these policy areas since the end of the Cold War. The 100-page integrated review, titled "Global Britain in a Competitive Age," recognizes the Indo-Pacific as "the crucible for many of the most pressing global challenges" and notes "the U.K. will deepen our engagement in the Indo-Pacific, establishing a greater and more persistent presence than any other European country," in the decade ahead. The government also said its nuclear weapons arsenal cap would increase to 260 warheads from the current 180, after working since 2010 to reduce the stockpile from 225. "In recognition of the evolving security environment, including the developing range of technological and doctrinal threats, this is no longer possible," the review said. On China, the strategy pledges to "adapt to China's growing impact on many aspects of our lives as it becomes more powerful in the world."
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UK building new special-ops force

The British Army is building a new special-operations group for overseas activities that could soon take part in conflicts in the Middle East and East Africa. Budget cuts have played a role in the restructuring, but the move is also part of efforts by the UK to build influence abroad in the wake of Brexit. The new Ranger Regiment, modelled after the US Green Berets, will contain four battalions of about 250 specially selected personnel. Their duties will include cyberwarfare and intelligence gathering.The regiment will support foreign powers or proxy forces through training and direct support operations. Speaking at a demonstration of the new force in the UK, Gen. Sir Mark Carleton-Smith, head of the army, said the first battalion will be ready by Christmas this year and could deploy to East Africa in 2022. Mozambique and Somalia are said to be two key locations targeted for deployment, as they are part of what officials consider to be the “most contested environments.” The terror group Al-Shabab could become the first target of the regiment.
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Italy to play ‘crucial role’ in Libya’s relaunch, says FM

Italy intends to play a “crucial role” in the democratic relaunch of Libya, Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs Luigi Di Maio has said. Di Maio delivered the message in Tripoli following a meeting with Libyan President Mohamed Menfi and the vice president of the Libyan Presidential Council. In a one-day visit kept secret from the press, Di Maio also held a long meeting with Najlaa Al-Manqoush, Libya’s foreign minister. Di Maio is the first member of an EU government to visit Tripoli since the formation of Libya’s national unity government on March 10. The body is charged with bringing the war-torn country toward national elections on Dec. 24 this year and has been granted confidence by the House of Representatives in Sirte. The Libyan prime minister’s press office said that bilateral relations between the two countries, the reactivation of a friendship agreement and work on the coastal road between Ras Agedir and Musaid were discussed in the meeting. His delegation also included CEO of energy company Eni, Claudio Descalzi.
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Medical

Not enough vaccine in Europe to stop Covid-19 third wave, retreat into lockdown possible, German health minister warns

Europe does not have enough vaccine to stave off a third wave of Covid-19 infections, the German health minister said on March 19, just days after the EU warned it would review the export of jabs from the bloc amid a shortfall. "There is not yet enough vaccine in Europe to stop the third wave through vaccinations alone," Jens Spahn said in Berlin during a weekly news conference. "We may even have to take steps backwards," Spahn said as he explained that the rising number of cases could mean reimposing health measures designed to curb the spread of the virus, such as lockdowns. Germany's infection rate is now "very clearly exponential", its disease-control agency, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), said on March 19, as the country posted around 17,000 new coronavirus cases – 5,000 more than on the same day last week. The more transmissible UK variant of the virus, B117, has forced Germany and other European nations to impose stricter health curbs in a bid to stem a Covid-19 third wave.
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Israel spent $788mn on Covid-19 vaccines, paying much more per dose than US & EU, health ministry data suggests

Israel has paid a hefty price for its pacy Covid-19 immunization drive, with the health ministry saying that it has already spent $788 million on vaccines against coronavirus – and is set to dish out the same again if necessary. The figures were disclosed for the first time on March 16 on a request from Knesset Finance Committee chairman Moshe Gafni. The country has so far paid 2.6 billion shekels ($788 million) to vaccine makers, with another 2.5 billion shekels ($758 million) reserved for further purchases, a ministry representative told legislators. Israel purchased 15 million vaccine doses from Pfizer/BioNTech and 120,000 doses from Moderna. Israeli broadcaster Kan reported in January that a two-dose course of both vaccines cost the country $47, meaning that the price of a single shot stood at $23.50. But the release of the health ministry figures suggests that the actual price per dose of vaccine was more than two times higher than that – around $52. A report by Washington Post late last year said that America was getting the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for $19.50 per dose and Moderna for around $15 per dose.
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