Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 13 July - 19 July 2020

Economic

ASEAN becomes China's top trade partner as supply chain evolves

Southeast Asia became China's largest trade partner in the January-June half as the trade war with the U.S. forces Beijing to recalibrate its global supply chain. China's total imports and exports with the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations increased 2% on the year to $297.8 billion, the country's custom agency said on July 15. The bloc accounted for 14.7% of China's overall trade for the period, up from 14% in 2019. The European Union, which was previously China's largest trade partner, saw total trade with China decrease 5% on the year to $284.1 billion, partly due to the U.K.'s exit from the bloc. Third-ranking U.S. suffered a 10% plunge amid deteriorating bilateral ties. The EU and the U.S. accounted for 14% and 11.5% of China's total trade for the first half, respectively. Click here to read.... [2]

China’s GDP up 3.2% in Q2, becomes 1st major economy to return to growth in wake of COVID-19

China's GDP contracted 1.6 percent for the first time in the first half of a year in nearly three decades, battered by COVID-19 headwinds. But in the second quarter, the economy grew 3.2 percent, reversing from a 6.8-percent contraction in the first quarter, a sign of the resilience deeply rooted in China's economy amid a global freefall when the coronavirus pandemic has plunged most major economies into a near standstill. Retail sales plummeted 11.4 percent year-on-year to 17.22 trillion yuan ($2.46 trillion) in the first half. Industrial added-value contracted 1.3 percent, while fixed-asset investment slumped 3.1 percent to 28.16 trillion yuan, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on July 16.The unemployment rate was 5.7 percent in June, a 0.2 percentage point decrease compared with May, the data showed. Click here to read.... [3]

Chinese Regulators Take over Nine Financial Institutions, Citing Risks

Chinese financial regulators on July 17 took over nine financial institutions they said broke rules and added risk to a financial system facing increasing headwinds from the coronavirus pandemic. The takeovers of four insurers, two trust firms and three securities companies that managed a combined 1 trillion yuan ($143 billion) in assets represent Beijing’s first major regulatory move this year and follows the bailout of several regional lenders last year. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said it would take control of Huaxia Life Insurance Co., Tianan Life Insurance Co., Tian An Property Insurance Co. and Yian Property Insurance Co., according to a statement on its website. It is also taking over two trust firms, New China Trust Co. and New Times Trust Co. Meanwhile, China’s securities regulator said it would take over three other entities—New Times Securities, Guosheng Securities and Guosheng Futures. “Regulators are more eager to stabilize the financial markets as the broader economy worsens,” said Mr. Shen. “A direct takeover allows for more efficient coordination.” Click here to read.... [4]

Trump's looming Huawei ban puts 800 Japanese companies on the spot

The U.S. will impose a ban next month on federal procurement from businesses that use products made by Huawei Technologies and four other Chinese tech companies deemed security threats, a move that affects more than 800 Japanese enterprises. U.S. agencies will be barred from signing or renewing contracts with companies that use products or services from Huawei, peer ZTE, camera makers Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology and Zhejiang Dahua Technology or radio manufacturer Hytera Communications. Washington cites the risk of sensitive information leaking to Beijing. The regulations take effect Aug. 13, after which companies that bid on federal contracts must certify that they do not use banned products. Washington estimates the cost of full compliance at more than $80 billion. Details of the measure, based on defense legislation signed in 2018, were issued on July 14.Click here to read.... [5]

UK asks Japan for help with 5G as alternative to Huawei

The British government has asked Japan for help in creating its 5G, or fifth-generation, wireless networks. The request came after the U.K. on July 14 decided to ban Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies from supplying equipment to the networks starting the end of this year as well as remove all the company's devices from them by 2027. British officials told their counterparts in Tokyo that Japanese technology companies NEC and Fujitsu may replace Huawei as suppliers and have asked for the Japanese side's support to enhance the network's technology and cost-efficiency. The U.K. is aiming to have Japanese companies compete with other telecoms companies such as Sweden's Ericsson and Finland's Nokia to promote the development of low-cost products suitable for British telecom companies to adopt. Click here to read.... [6]

EU leaders resume 'grumpy' summit on budget, virus fund

European Union leaders were hunting for compromises on July 18 as a summit to reach a deal on an unprecedented 1.85 trillion euros ($2.1 trillion) EU budget and coronavirus recovery fund entered its second day with tensions running high. The atmosphere "was grumpier" as the talks went on, Dutch Prime Minister Rutte told Dutch reporters after Friday's marathon talks. "This is going to take a while, I think." The EU executive branch has proposed a 750-billion euros fund, partly based on common borrowing, to be sent as loans and grants to the neediest countries. That comes on top of the seven-year 1-trillion-euro EU budget that leaders were fighting over when COVID-19 slammed their continent. Click here to read.... [7]

Conflict Gold in Spotlight as Investors Flock to Precious Metal

As demand for gold as a haven surged during the coronavirus pandemic, concerns about sourcing the precious metal responsibly have again been thrust into the spotlight. A report from Global Witness alleging one of the world’s biggest gold refiners has worked with a supplier that was at risk of having bought conflict metal originating in Sudan is the latest in a series of calls from advocacy groups urging the London Bullion Market Association to scrutinize producers more closely. Gold, which is trading near an eight-year high, is one of four conflict minerals that U.S.-listed companies must trace and report on to the Securities and Exchange Commission. The same group of minerals will be covered by binding European Union due diligence rules starting from next year. Suppliers are coming under pressure to show they have got processes and policies in place to make sure the metal hasn’t financed conflict or been linked to corruption or human rights abuses. Click here to read.... [8]

US threatens to cut off Chinese banks' access to dollars

Chinese banks, seen as complicit in Beijing's clampdown on Hong Kong face being cut off from much of the global financial system under wide-ranging sanctions that are part of newly enacted the US legislation. The Hong Kong Autonomy Act, signed on July 14 by U.S. President Donald Trump, sets out punitive measures against lenders that do business with sanctioned officials, including bans on receiving loans from American banks, participating in foreign-currency and banking transactions, and investing in equity or debt. The government may also freeze the assets of designated institutions or restrict exports to them. While the sanctions are not specifically limited to Chinese institutions, the law was drafted with the likes of Bank of China (BOC), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Construction Bank in mind. China's four largest state-owned banks held about $1.1 trillion in dollar-denominated liabilities at the end of 2019, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Click here to read.... [9]

Japan reveals 87 projects eligible for 'China exit' subsidies

Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on July 17 unveiled the first group of Japanese companies to subsidize for shifting manufacturing out of China to Southeast Asia or Japan. Eighty-seven companies or groups will receive a total of 70 billion yen ($653 million) to move production lines, in a bid to reduce Japan's reliance on its large neighbour and build resilient supply chains. Thirty of these will shift production to Southeast Asia, including Hoya, which produces hard-drive parts and will move to Vietnam and Laos. Sumitomo Rubber Industries will make nitrile rubber gloves in Malaysia, while Shin-Etsu Chemical will shift production of rare-earth magnets to Vietnam. The other 57 projects will head to Japan. Click here to read.... [10]

G20 officials stop short of recommending debt freeze extension

Finance officials from the Group of 20 (G20) countries on July 18 called for all official bilateral creditors to implement fully a short-term debt freeze for the world's poorest countries but stopped short of extending the initiative into next year. Sources briefed on the G20 meeting said there was strong support for extending the standstill beyond the end of 2020, given the severity of the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, but the group's final communique said only that the issue would be considered in the second half of 2020. It also said nothing about growing calls for cancelling - not just deferring - the debts of some of the poorest countries. The Debt Service Suspension Initiative, agreed by G20 ministers in April, has proven challenging to implement, with only 42 of 73 eligible countries expressing interest thus far, saving just $5.3 bn in service payments instead of the $12bn initially promised. Click here to read.... [11]

U.S. Companies Lose Hope for Quick Rebound from Covid-19

Big U.S. companies are deciding March and April moves won’t cut it. The fierce resurgence of Covid-19 cases and related business shutdowns are dashing hopes of a quick recovery, prompting businesses from airlines to restaurant chains to again shift their strategies and staffing or ramp up previous plans to do so. They are turning furloughs into permanent layoffs, de-emphasizing their core businesses and downsizing production indefinitely. Executives who were bracing for a months long disruption are now thinking in terms of years. Their job has changed from riding it out to reinventing. Roles once thought core are now an extravagance. Strategies set in the spring are obsolete. “It’s going to be a different game,” said Bill George, former CEO of medical-device company Medtronic PLC and a senior fellow at Harvard Business School. Mr. George said many companies now need to explore strategies they might have once deemed unthinkable, from hospital chains embracing a long-term shift to telemedicine to apparel makers figuring out how to market and sell their wares in an environment where many stores don’t reopen. Click here to read.... [12]

Strategic

Blaze at Iranian Port adds to String of Damaging Incidents

Iranian authorities are investigating a blaze that damaged seven ships at a southern Iranian port, the latest in a string of fires and explosions that have raised suspicions of coordinated sabotage targeting the nation’s infrastructure and a nuclear facility. The fire at Bushehr’s Delvar Shipyard follows a series of incidents that have damaged facilities connected to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and other important infrastructure. Bushehr, which lies on the Persian Gulf coast, is a key hub for Iran’s oil industry and home to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. Iranian officials have characterized most of the recent incidents—which number at least eight in less than three weeks—as accidents. The government hasn’t given a cause for the most serious incident, a massive explosion July 2 at Natanz, one of the country’s key nuclear facilities.

‘Room for sanctions’: Top US diplomat for East Asia threatens to respond to Beijing over South China Sea

The top US diplomat for East Asia said on July 14 that Washington could respond with sanctions against Chinese officials and enterprises involved in “coercion in the South China Sea.” “Nothing is off the table… there is room for that. This is a language the Chinese understand – demonstrative and tangible action,” Reuters quoted David Stilwell, the assistant secretary of state for East Asia, as telling a Washington think tank. The diplomat was answering a question if sanctions were a possible US response to Chinese actions. Stilwell spoke a day after the United States rejected China’s claims to offshore resources in most of the South China Sea as “completely unlawful.” Click here to read.... [13]

China seeks to overhaul high-altitude medical support for troops amid border stand-off with India

China’s air force has deployed its “flying hospital” for the first time as it seeks to improve its medical support for troops amid the ongoing confrontation with India. An aviation team from the Western Theatre Command sent a Y-9 medical aircraft to ferry a critically injured officer 5,200km (3,230 miles) from a base in Tibet to a hospital in Xian, the PLA air force announced on WeChat. A report from Xinhua said the officer, surnamed Zhang, was injured in a recent drill and his condition was deteriorating. A Beijing-based military source said the plane is just one element of the PLA’s drive to improve medical support at high altitudes, especially on the disputed border with India. Click here to read.... [14]

Washington-Taliban deal enters ‘next phase’ after US troops ‘depart 5 bases’ – envoy

The United States has said its deal with the Taliban has entered the “next phase.” Under the agreement signed in February, Washington pledged to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by the middle of next year, in return for the insurgents promising to negotiate with the Afghan government to end the decades-old war. Under phase one, the US said it would reduce troops to 8,600 within 135 days, while completely removing forces from five military bases, AFP reported. The US special representative on Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, who negotiated the deal, tweeted that both sides had reached a “key milestone.” “The US has worked hard to carry out 1st phase of its commitments under the agreement to reduce troops & depart from five bases,” he said on July 13. The US’ approach will now be based on certain conditions, Khalilzad said, citing the completion of prisoner releases, reduction of violence, and the start of and progress in intra-Afghan negotiations.Click here to read.... [15]

US satellites would slash cost of Japan defensive strike: expert

Japan can dramatically reduce the cost of developing the capability to strike enemy missile bases before an imminent attack if it uses the U.S. military's satellite-based early warning system, an analysis by a professor at the National Defense Academy shows. The average annual cost of the necessary equipment and systems -- including development, production, maintenance and decommissioning expenses, divided by expected years of service -- could be cut as low as 22.4 billion yen ($209 million), according to Yasuhiro Takeda. Base strike capabilities are being debated by the Japanese government as an alternative to the Aegis Ashore missile shield, deployment of which has been suspended due to surging costs. Click here to read.... [16]

China blasts dam to release floodwaters as death toll rises

Authorities in central China blasted a dam on July 19 to release surging waters behind it amid widespread flooding across the country that has claimed scores of lives. State broadcaster CCTV reported the dam on the Chuhe River in Anhui province was destroyed with explosives early Sunday morning, after which the water level was expected to drop by 70 centimetres (more than 2 feet). Water levels on many rivers, including the mighty Yangtze, have been unusually high this year because of torrential rains. Blasting dams and embankments to discharge water was an extreme response employed during China's worst floods in recent years in 1998, when more than 2,000 people died and almost 3 million homes were destroyed. Click here to read.... [17]

Pentagon report: Turkey sent up to 3,800 fighters to Libya

Turkey sent between 3,500 and 3,800 paid Syrian fighters to Libya over the first three months of the year, the U.S. Defense Department's inspector general concluded in a new report, its first to detail Turkish deployments that helped change the course of Libya's war. The report comes as the conflict in oil-rich Libya has escalated into a regional proxy war fuelled by foreign powers pouring weapons and mercenaries into the country. Despite widespread reports of the fighters' extremist links, the report says the U.S. military found no evidence to suggest the mercenaries were affiliated with the Islamic State extremist group or al-Qaida. It says they were "very likely" motivated by generous financial packages rather than ideology or politics. Click here to read.... [18]

Turkey, US agree on Libya

US President Donald Trump and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to work "more closely" on a solution to the Libya conflict during a phone call on July 14, the Turkish president's office said. Erdogan and Trump "agreed to cooperate more closely, as allies, ... to promote lasting stability in Libya," it said in a statement. Turkey supports Libya's UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and has stepped up military support to Tripoli against Khalifa Haftar. The US officially backs the GNA, but Haftar is supported by Washington's allies Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Click here to read.... [19]

Pompeo says US should limit which human rights it defends

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on July 16 released a report produced by the Commission on Unalienable Rights, which he tasked last year with conducting a broad review of U.S. human rights policy, arguing at the time that it had "lost its bearings." Pompeo, speaking in Philadelphia, singled out property rights and religious freedom as "foremost" principals in a speech that elsewhere complained about the "proliferation" of protections in international agreements related to human rights. “Americans have not only unalienable rights, but also positive rights granted by governments, courts and multilateral bodies. Many are worth defending in light of our founding; others aren't." Click here to read.... [20]

EU court cancels US data-sharing pact over snooping concerns

The European Union's top court ruled July 16 that an agreement that allows thousands of companies -- from tech giants to small financial firms -- to transfer data to the United States is invalid because the American government can snoop on people's data. The ruling to invalidate Privacy Shield will complicate business for some 5,000 companies, and it could require regulators to vet any new data transfers to make sure Europeans' personal information remains protected according to the EU's stringent standards. It will no longer simply be assumed that tech companies like Facebook will adequately protect the privacy of its European users' data when it sends it to the U.S. Rather, the EU and U.S. will likely have to find a new agreement that guarantees that Europeans' data is afforded the same privacy protection in the U.S. as it is in the EU. Click here to read.... [21]

NATO has stopped health crisis becoming a security crisis - Stoltenberg

NATO has had to adjust but has been able to function during the COVID-19 pandemic to make sure the health crisis does not become a security crisis, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on July 16. "NATO's main task is to make sure that health crisis the COVID-19 crisis does not become a security crisis, and we have been able to do that," he told BBC Radio. "Of course, we have adjusted some of the ways we do our activities... but the main message is that we have been able to uphold deterrence defence, our operational presence, throughout the pandemic." Click here to read.... [22]

China says to sanction Lockheed Martin over Taiwan arms sale

China will put sanctions on Lockheed Martin for involvement in the latest U.S. arms sale to Chinese-claimed Taiwan, China said on July 14, adding tension to its troubled relationship with the United States. The U.S. weapons maker is the main contractor for a $620 million upgrade package for Taiwan's Patriot surface-to-air missiles, which the U.S. government approved last week. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian called on the United States to stop selling weapons to Taiwan to "avoid further harming Sino-U.S. ties and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait". "In order to safeguard the country's interests, China has decided to take necessary steps, and put sanctions on the main contractor for this sale, Lockheed Martin," Zhao told reporters, without giving details.The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Click here to read.... [23]

Putin & Merkel agree in phone call that Minsk agreements on E. Ukraine conflict ‘have no alternatives’

Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel discussed implementing the Minsk agreements to peacefully solve the conflict in eastern Ukraine in a phone call on July 15. Putin “emphasized the counter-productivity of Ukrainian attempts to distort the substance” of the agreements amid Kiev’s statements about the need to review them, according to the Kremlin press service. “He underscored that Kiev’s course toward selective fulfilment of its obligations brings the negotiations process to a stalemate.” Both sides condemned recent statements made by Ukrainian officials that the Minsk complex of measures must be reviewed, TASS reported. The leaders of Germany and Russia also talked about the arms embargo against Iran and the current situation in Libya, the chancellor’s spokesman Steffen Seibert said. Click here to read.... [24]

German state leaders urge US lawmakers to stop troop pullout

The state premiers of Bayern, Baden-Württemberg, Hesse, and Rheinland-Palatinate wrote to members of the US Senate and Congress in a bid to stop the US from drastically cutting its troop presence in Germany. All four of the German states host US military bases. The troops form "the backbone of US presence in Europe and NATO's ability to act," the state leaders said in the letter seen by the Reuters news agency and several German newspapers. "We therefore ask you to support us as we strive not to sever the bond of friendship but to strengthen it, and to secure the US presence in Germany and Europe in the future," the German politicians said. The document is addressed to 13 US lawmakers, including Republican senators Mitt Romney and Jim Inhofe. Last month, a bipartisan group of six US senators pushed against the move. Click here to read.... [25]

Medical

WHO’s ‘full mission’ of international experts to study virus origins in China

The World Health Organization (WHO) is forming a team of international experts to go to China to study the origins of the novel coronavirus. However, the panel will not be in place before the end of July, Head of the WHO Emergencies Program Mike Ryan said on July 17. A two-person WHO advance team has been in China for a week preparing for the visit of the larger group, Reuters reported. Ryan said the global health body was “very pleased” with the collaboration from Chinese officials so far, adding that setting up and deploying the larger team would take time. Click here to read.... [26]

Symptom tracker app reveals six distinct types of COVID-19 infection

British scientists analysing data from a widely used COVID-19 symptom-tracking app have found there are six distinct types of the disease, each distinguished by a cluster of symptoms. “If you can predict who these people are at Day Five, you have time to give them support and early interventions such as monitoring blood oxygen and sugar levels, and ensuring they are properly hydrated,” said Claire Steves, a doctor who co-led the study. The study, released online on June 16 but not peer-reviewed by independent scientists, described the six COVID-19 types as: 1 ‘Flu-like’ with no fever: Headache, loss of smell, muscle pains, cough, sore throat, chest pain, no fever. 2 ‘Flu-like’ with fever: Headache, loss of smell, cough, sore throat, hoarseness, fever, loss of appetite….Click here to read.... [27]

Chinese executives get 'pre-test' injections in vaccine race

In the global race to make a coronavirus vaccine, a state-owned Chinese company is boasting that its employees, including top executives, received experimental shots even before the government approved testing in people. "Giving a helping hand in forging the sword of victory," reads an online post from SinoPharm with pictures of company leaders it says helped "pre-test" its vaccine. Whether it's viewed as heroic sacrifice or a violation of international ethical norms, the claim underscores the enormous stakes as China competes with U.S. and British companies to be the first with a vaccine to help end the pandemic -- a feat that would be both a scientific and political triumph. Click here to read.... [28]

Russia is hacking virus vaccine trials, US, UK, Canada say

Western governments on July 16 accused hackers believed to be part of Russian intelligence of trying to steal valuable private information about a coronavirus vaccine, calling out the Kremlin in an unusually detailed public warning to scientists and medical companies. The alleged culprit is a familiar foe. Intelligence agencies in the United States, United Kingdom and Canada say the hacking group APT29, also known as Cozy Bear, is attacking academic and pharmaceutical research institutions involved in COVID-19 vaccine development. The same group was implicated in the hacking of Democratic email accounts during the 2016 U.S. presidential election. It was unclear whether any useful information was stolen. Click here to read.... [29]

Vaccine alliance says 75 countries keen to join 'COVAX' access facility

More than 75 countries have expressed interest in joining the COVAX financing scheme designed to guarantee fast and equitable access globally to COVID-19 vaccines, the GAVI vaccines alliance said on July 15. The 75 countries, which would finance the vaccines from public budgets, will partner with up to 90 poorer countries supported through voluntary donations to GAVI's COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC), the alliance said in a statement. "COVAX is the only truly global solution to the COVID-19 pandemic," Seth Berkley, GAVI's chief executive, said in a statement. "For the vast majority of countries, whether they can afford to pay for their own doses or require assistance, it means receiving a guaranteed share of doses and avoiding being pushed to the back of the queue, as we saw during the H1N1 pandemic a decade ago." Click here to read.... [30]