Need to move step by step

Good sense dictates that we remain open to the possibility of settling our differences with Pakistan, but common sense demands that we do not anxiously chase solutions. We seem to believe that our over-display of readiness to engage Pakistan will goad it to respond constructively. Our repeated overtures in fact give Pakistan more political room to make demands and lay the terms of a revived dialogue. We also make it easier for outside powers, interested in pushing for India-Pakistan talks for their own regional interests, to continue to counsel us to engage Pakistan and make some concessions to it to wean it away from its unreasonable and self-destructive policies, as we seem more pliable.

When we artificially conjure up a renewed spirit to resolve outstanding issues- the Thimphu spirit, for example, we are doing a public relations job for Pakistan, unnecessarily making it look good, when in fact its antipathy towards us remains acute. With the sudden invitation issued to President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani to visit India to watch the India-Pakistan semi-final cricket match at Mohali we have once again succumbed to our inexplicable desire to court Pakistan. It is apparently our appreciation, as our initiative suggests, that hostility between India and Pakistan is basically an aberration which can be corrected with “sincere,”  impromptu, reach-out gestures by us.

We seem to believe that Pakistan can be cajoled into improving relations with us, and that if we keep giving signals that we have no ill-intentions towards it, that we will not stand on our pride and refuse to dialogue even if our well-meaning efforts are rebuffed or come to nought, Pakistan may relent.

We want to celebrate together with Pakistan at Mohali the victory of sport, but over what? 64 years of conflict, unrelenting confrontation, territorial claims over Kashmir, promotion of jihadi groups, the onslaught of terrorism, the Mumbai carnage, the unwillingness to bring to justice those responsible for it? With this record why do we want to celebrate anything with Pakistan? Why should enthusiasm over cricket overlook the brutal realities of our relationship with Pakistan?

The decision to revive the “comprehensive” dialogue with Pakistan at Thimphu, questionable though it was, laid out a process of re-engagement that took into account the limits imposed on government’s freedom of action by Indian public opinion as well as Pakistan’s inexcusable post-Mumbai conduct. Hence the step-by-step approach, with sequential meetings over three months or more at Home, Commerce, Defence and Foreign Secretary level, capped with parleying at Foreign Minister level in July  2011.

This agreement was a compromise struck between Pakistan’s demand for a result-oriented discussion on all outstanding issues with time-lines and India’s position that  while it was ready to address all problems, priority had to be accorded to a discussion on terrorism, with no time-lines for actual solutions to issues that bedevil the relationship. As it happens, the compromise tilted heavily in favour of Pakistan because of India’s compelling urge to have a dialogue with it.

The invitation extended to Zardari and Gilani short circuits the process agreed to at Thimphu even before it could commence. Instead of the carefully crafted step -by- step approach we have decided to do a hop step and jump, with a summit level encounter straightaway. Whereas this encounter should have taken place after an evaluation was made of the results of engagement at secretaries and minister level, we have have shown our characteristic wishful thinking and impatience in wanting to achieve a much quicker breakthrough with our adversary.  

If top down trickle effect was to work to untangle the India-Pakistan relationship, the Manmohan Singh- Zardari meeting at Ekaterinaberg and the Manmohan Singh-Gilani meeting at Sharm-el-Sheikh should have already successfully galvanised the respective bureaucracies to make the desired headway. Earlier summits and unilateral comforting gestures by our leadership to Pakistan in the recent past should have by now, in fact, ushered in peace and friendship between our two countries.

Protestations of goodwill and bonhomie at the top level are not suffficient to overcome the obstacles in the relationship. The leaders of both countries can talk the language of peace and friendship, but will the Pakistani leadership be ready to give up its entrenched positions in practice? Pakistan will continue to expect India to make the requisite concessions. It will still want Kashmir to be resolved and Siachen and Sir Creek issues to be settled in the interim. It will not want to lft the barriers to trade, will not punish those responsible for the Mumbai massacre, will not suppress the jihadi groups or place curbs on Hafiz Sayeed, will not hand over fugitives from our law, will oppose our presence in Afghanistan and deny us transit rights to that country. It will continue to expand its nuclear threat to India.

It might appear that we were seizing the opportunity of our victory over Australia and the chance setting up of the India-Pakistan encounter to further a good political cause. Some may see in this a clever step to mobilise the cricket enthusiasm in the two countries in favour of peace between them. But can we realistically expect the gusto in the cricket field to create a fervour for settling long-standing political differences? More so as one side will normally lose, and if it is the Pakistani side, will its defeat rouse the nation to embrace India politically? If, on the other hand, Pakistan wins, will it be disposed to be more generous to India politically? So what might seem as an imaginative move is in reality political ad hocism, with no clarity with regard to what is hoped to be achieved in concrete terms. It seems to be an investment in goodwill by us, without any sign of Pakistan’s will to be good to us.

Zardari and Gilani are in no position to deliver on our minimum concerns. They cannot even adequately deliver what their own countrymen want of them. Their own political fortunes are shaky, with the coalition in power fractured, the economy in dire straits, the army and the judiciary acting as independent power centres, extremist religious forces gaining strength, internal peace being wracked by massive terrorist acts, the civil society subdued and relations with the country’s main benefactor, the US, in increasing disarray. Watching the cricket match at Mohali with India’s leader may be a pleasant distraction, especially if Pakistan wins, but it will not change the realities back home. Z or G would, in fact, want gestures from India to bolster their position in Pakistan. One only hopes more ad hoc surprises are not in the offing.

India and Pakistan do not need these stratagems as we have have had several bouts of dialogue, including at summit level, and we have diplomatic ties and functioning hot lines. If our leaders want to meet and it is felt there is pressing need for it, let them do so frontally and explain to their people why. And not play games with sport.

The writer is a former Foreign Secretary

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Article published in 30 March, 2011