Round Table Discussion on Iran Nuclear Deal, Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), New Delhi, 23 May 2018

Opening Remarks by Dr Arvind Gupta, Director VIF

US-Iran confrontation is intensifying; it likely to escalate and will have world-wide impact. Tough US sanctions are on the way. For the moment the European Union (EU) holding on, signaling defiance of the US. But it is a matter of time before EU surrenders to US pressure. How will sanctions impact India? That is the key question.

India-Iran relations cannot remain unaffected. India’s effort to reach to Eurasia, Central Asia and Afghanistan and bilateral relations may also be affected. India is the second largest buyer of Iranian crude. India and Iran may have to go back to rupee trade, as was the case during the last round of sanctions. But, how will the pile of rupees used? That requires some thinking.

As the experience shows, Indian companies are conservative, to put it mildly, in dealing with Iran, sanctioned by the US. This can jeopardize India’s plans for the construction of the Chabahar Port, the Farzad-B gas deal, the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the Zahidan railway projects etc.

India cannot allow the US to dictate its policies. If US and India are strategic partners, the US action should not hurt India’s vital interests. This is easier said than achieved. President Trump has his own mind. For him, America comes first. Dealing with him is not easy for any country. India will have to enter into a deep dialogue with the US to ensure that its national interest are not harmed. India may have to negotiate waivers where appropriate and stand firm where necessary.

Considering all such possibilities, we need to discuss and find the ways to deal with this sensitive issue.