Changing Face of Terrorism: Inaugural Address by Dr Arvind Gupta, Director, The Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi, at the Institute of Social Science, New Delhi, 12 April 2018

Dr Ash Narain Roy, Excellencies,

Thank you very much for inviting me to participate in the seminar on the ‘Changing Face of Terrorism’.

Terrorism has evolved from being an irritant to becoming an instrument for mass casualties. Earlier, the impact of terrorist violence was usually local. Today, the impact is intended to be global. The target of terrorists used to be politicians, officials and symbols of state. The targets are primarily non-combatants, innocent civilians. In an interconnected world characterised by instant communication, the purposes of the terrorists is to achieve massive publicity which inevitably follows even a minor terrorist attack. Terrorism is evolving, and rapidly so, in all its dimensions.

Terrorism has emerged as a major threats to national and international security. While it is necessary to understand how terrorism and practices of terrorism are changing in the 21st century in a theoretical sense, it is even more important to know how to deal with this threat. Can terrorism be eradicated? Can it be contained? What are the implications of the rapid evolution of terrorism for counterterrorism? This seminar will be important step in the direction.

Terrorism has existed in all ages. The word terror was popularised during the French Revolution. David Ropoport in his 2004 seminal study, The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism, argues that we are in the fourth wave of modern terrorism. The first wave, the “anarchist wave”, originated in Russia in the l880’s, and spread to Europe, the Americas and Asia. The second wave, the “anti-colonial wave” or the nationalist-separatist wave emerged after the First World War and was to last through to the Second World War. A group of new states then emerged, i.e. Algeria, Cyprus, Ireland, Israel, and Yemen – as the empires of the defeated colonial powers dissolved. The third wave, the “new left” wave, marked the rise of social-revolutionary terrorism in the wake of the defeat of the fascist Third Reich and ended with the implosion of the Soviet Union in 1989. We are now in the “religious” wave, or the fourth wave, which began in the 1980’s. Rapoport dates the beginning of this wave to 1979, when militants seized the US embassy in Tehran, and held the occupants hostage for 444 days. Ropoport’s four wave classification is useful but not complete as it ignores many other brnads of terrorism which cannot be fitted into this neat division; for instance, the ethno-linguistic terrorism which has been common in many countries.

With the emergence of Islamic State (IS) and a caliphate in Syria-Iraq territory for a few years, we may be entering a new, and fifth wave of terrorism. The terrorist have been able to hold territory and export their ideology and messages using the social media to attract followers. The establishment of the “Caliphate” attracted many followers. As IS was weakening, militants tried to set up a Islamic city state in Marawi in the Philippines in Oct 2017. Noe the evicted foreign fighters may sow the seeds of a new tourism modular the world order.

Although terrorism is an old phenomenon, the world got truly focused on the terrorism problem after the 9/11 terrorist attack staged by the Al Qaeda on the World Trade Centre towers in New York. In an unprecedented move the US launched the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) which triggered interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, the latter being totally illegal. The consequences of these interventions are still with us; terrorism truly became a global and geo-political issue. The Middle East was shaken to the core by evolution of terrorism, we see that terrorism has got atomised and personalised since then. Today we are seeing the emergence of ‘lone wolf’ type of terrorist attacks which are extremely difficult to detect. Radicalisation of the mind and new technologies are playing a key role in the emergence of this form of terrorism.

Considerable academic work has been done to understand the psychology of the terrorist. Terrorism originates in the mind of an individual who is otherwise a normal individual. He/she gets radicalised due to various factors but mostly through the Internet. The person has no previous history of terrorism; his/her background gives no clue to his/her inclination towards terrorism; radicalisation of the mind leads him/her to execute the act of terrorism. The so-called lone wolf attacks are the hallmark of the new wave of terrorism.

Various factors motivate terrorists. These could include religion, ideology, political and historical grievances, psychological factors, personal agendas and so on. There is not one theory that can explain terrorism neatly. That is why it becomes difficult to deal with terrorism. According to experts, there are no psychological characteristics separating terrorists from the general population. Rather, it is group dynamics, with particular emphasis on collective identity that helps to explain terrorist psychology. But that still does not explain the lone-wolf type of terrorism. The profile of the terrorists, their backgrounds etc. are varied and provide no definite clue to a potential terrorist.

Apart from motivation, terrorism has many dimensions, including recruitment, training, financing etc. Internet has facilitated recruitment. Today’s terrorism relies heavily on criminal nexus for financing, and technology for information and propaganda. Globalisation of terrorism is the defining feature of new terrorism in which the Middle East and North Africa regions have been seamlessly integrated. South Asia, Central Asia, South-East Asia, Europe, all form a vast network of terrorism enterprises. Terrorism has taken advantage of the attributes of globalisation and is riding piggyback on it. Thus, for instance, cyber crime is a major source of terrorism financing. Criminals have begun to use the dark web and crypto currencies for their activities. They are using the dark web to remain hidden and yet active. Massive spread of financial services and trade across the globe has made it easier for terror financing. We have seen in the last few years as to how easy it is for the hackers to steal the credit card numbers and the passwords which are then used to steal money. Social media and applications are perfect technologies for the terrorists to not only remain connected with each other but also to communicate through encryption.

The use of social media for terrorist propaganda has become increasingly common. The magazines, the online videos and other propaganda material produced by the IS have been of top quality and their slick of persuasive content was a major factor in its out-reach to the young and impressionable minds. The theft of antiques from the monuments, stealing of oil and its sale on the black market etc. have been the means used by the IS to fund their activities. At one point of time they were raising billions of dollars through these activities with impunity.

But the most important and dangerous development has been the ability of the terrorist groups to motivate the individuals for lone wolf attacks. In all these attacks, the Internet and social media have played an important role. In the recent years, the focus of the international community has shifted to Countering Violent Extremism (CVE). Following the success of IS in setting up a ”Caliphate” in Syria – Iraq territory, thousands of youngsters from Europe, Central Asia, Middle East and South-East Asia went to Syria as recruits of the IS. There is a worry that these youngsters, after their return to their home countries, would spread radical ideology and terrorism. As a result, today there is relatively speaking less of a focus on terrorist groups and more on ideological aspects of radicalisation.

Dealing with terrorism and international level has proved to be difficult. While there is functional cooperation amongst the law-enforcement agencies of different countries at some level, the lack of agreement on a common definition for terrorism has been a major hindrance to a consensus approach on dealing with it. Multiple standards exist. One man’s terrorist is another man’s hero. The UN has adopted several resolutions and set up committees to monitor terrorism. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has acted to control terror finance. But, the phenomenon continues to grow. The efforts spearheaded by India to bring about a UN Convention on International Terrorism have not yet succeeded.

India’s Experience in Dealing with Terrorism

India has been a victim of terrorism since its inception as an independent country in 1947. In most cases of terrorism in India, external support has been the key factor. Presently, the global terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad have been the main perpetrators of terrorism. Earlier, the Khalistani groups wreaked havoc in a decade of terrorist attacks in the country. North East insurgents have also been active in many states of the region. Left Wing Extremists have also been continuing with their violent activities in the central regions of India. In states like Jammu and Kashmir, IS also seems to have made its appearance, though it appears to be symbolic at this stage. However, the case of 20 odd youth leaving Karnataka and Telangana for Nangarhar in Afghanistan where the IS is present, is a pointer to the potential threat of radicalisation.

India has strengthened its counter-terrorism capabilities considerably in the years since the Mumbai terror attacks. While terrorist attacks have not stopped altogether, their frequency and severity seems to have reduced. International cooperation has been strengthened. India has strengthened its laws and intelligence. Coordination among the agencies has improved. Many agencies, like the National Investigation Agency, have been working professionally while India’s law enforcement agencies have taken action against terrorists. These steps have reduced the incidence of terrorism in India.

However, it is nobody’s case that India is not subject to terrorist threat. There is no reason for complacency. The threat remains potent and will continue until Pakistan and Af-Pak region remain the hotbed of geo-politics and radicalisation and a home to terrorist groups. The bad state of relationship between Pakistan and India will also be a contributory factor to the challenge of terrorism in India.

In conclusion, terrorism is here to stay. It will mutate as the geo-politics changes. The challenge is how to be a step ahead of terrorists. This is difficult as there is still no agreement on what constitutes terrorism and who is a terrorist. Until this problem is solved, counter-terrorism efforts will essentially be limited to functional cooperation.

Thank you.