Punjab University Seminar on Pakistan: Pakistan Challenge to India (27 February 2018)

Key note address by Dr. Arvind Gupta, Director, the Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi

Thank you for inviting me to speak to this gathering of experts, academics and students. I compliment Gen KJ Singh for organising this seminar on Pakistan.

One might ask, why do we discuss Pakistan? Do we not know enough about it? Its continued existence reminds us of the painful partition of India on the basis of pernicious Two-Nation theory? Punjab and Bengal were divided. Millions of people were uprooted in the West and East and lakhs died in one of the worst episodes of what we today call ethnic cleansing. We continue to pay the price for that terrible episode in our history whose wounds are still fresh.

The people of Pakistan have paid a heavy price. Pakistan is an artificial state. There is nothing common that binds Baluchi with a Punjabi. Its internal contradictions led to its own dismemberment in 1971. It has never been at peace with its neighbors including Afghanistan. It continues to bear the brunt of hosting 2.5 million Afghan refugees. The society has been radicalised. It has remained under the military rule for more than half of its existence and in the remaining period, the military has always been the dominant political force. Its economy has been weakened. Today Pakistan is turning into a colony of China. Its largest province is restive. The dream of wresting Kashmir remains as distant as ever. The country is home to some of the most dreaded terrorist groups. It has lost the respect of the international community for having conducted duplicitous polices on terrorism. The FATF has put it on the grey list for not taking steps to curb terror financing.

Pakistan Studies

The reasons we should continue, even intensify, our studies of Pakistan are manifolds. Nuclearised and heavily militarised Pakistan continues to present a grave threat to Indian security. It is in collusion with China. It has the agenda of destabilising India. Its support to terrorism is a potent threat to India’s unity. It pursues its Kashmir policy with single minded focus. Developments in Pakistan have deep impact on Indian polity. Its geopolitical locations makes it the focus of attention of great powers. Pakistan has successfully blocked us from access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. And last but not the least, it continues to occupy the Indian territory in Kashmir.

We may ask how well we know Pakistan. The question may see strange as we have been dealing with the country for over seventy years day in day out. Yet, our knowledge of the country, its social, economic, cultural trends is incomplete. The contacts with the Pakistani people are limited and often clouded by emotion. Hardly any Indian scholar is able to visit the interiors of Pakistani provinces and mingle with the Pakistanis. There is not enough research on the provinces of Pakistan. There is not enough knowledge of the societal tends. We do not have authentic information about Pakistani youth and their aspirations. Even for information about their army and its ethos, we depend upon western authors. The knowledge of Pakistan’s economy is mostly derived from the studies of the World Bank and IMF. The China-Pakistan Corridor is a game changer in the region and will have deep impact on Indian security. But detailed information on the projects is scarce. The empirical studies of Pakistani society, polity and economy are urgently needed. How many people in India study the languages spoken in Pakistan’s provinces? There is hardly anyone who reads Pushto, Sindhi Dari, Balti, Shinwari, Baluchi language in India. There is dearth of those who can read and translate Urdu professionally which is such a crucial language when it comes to studying Pakistan. To the best of my knowledge, there is no think tank or university department devoted exclusively to the study of Pakistan the country. Number of genuine Pakistan experts devoted to Pakistan studies can be counted on the fingertips.

In the last few years, some books brought out by the Pakistanis themselves have added to better understanding of Pakistan. Authors who come readily to mind are Ayesha Siddiqa’s work on Pakistan Army, Military Inc, Ahmad Rashid’s Descent into Chaos, Hussain Haqqani’s book Between Military and the Mosque, Farzana Shaikh’s book on radicalisation. Musharraf’s autobiography In the Line of Fire has also provided useful glimpses into the years of his rule. These books lay bare the nature of Pakistan as an ideological state based on the ideology of Islam. Rulers of Pakistan at various times have used Islam to legitimise their actions. According to Haqqani, it is an alliance between the Islamist groups and the military that rules Pakistan. He says, “Islamist groups have been sponsored and supported by the state machinery at different times to influence domestic politics and support the military’s political dominance. In the South Asian region, the Islamists have been allies in the Pakistan military’s efforts to seek strategic depth in Afghanistan and to put pressure on India for negotiations over the future of Kashmir.”

Amongst the foreign author’s, Christine Faire’s book Fighting to the End: the Pakistan Army's Way of War has been widely acclaimed. Among the Indian authors Tilak Devahsar’s Pakistan: Courting the Abyss and TCA Raghavan’s The People Next Door: The Curious History of India's Relations with Pakistan stand out. Recently, I came across a book by Rahul Mishra on Pakistan Army, a commendable effort by an Indian scholar. These books have added to our understanding of Pakistan but this is not enough. What we need is far deeper analysis of Pakistan. The state of Pakistan studies in India remains less than satisfactory.
We need to understand Pakistan’s mindset in all its nuances. What drives Pakistan’s unremitting animosity towards India? We need to understand the historical, social, political and psychological factors behind this deep hatred of India among its rulers. Is this feeing widespread or limited to only to the ruling elite?

Formation of Pakistan has a long historical background and has to do with the fall of the Mughal Empire. A section of Muslims in India perpetuated the theory that minority population of Muslims cannot live alongside a majority population of the Hindus whom they had ruled for centuries. In this thinking lies the germs of Two Nation theory and the partition of India. This is the mentality that continues to drive the Pakistan’s image of India as an enemy country. In Pakistan, the army is the final arbiter. Kashmir has been used as a pretext to seek all powers. The Army derives its enormous influence from the sustained an anti-India image. This is not going to change.

Pakistani society is getting increasingly radicalized, posing danger to India too. This is largely the result of the Zia’s rule and the support to Afghan jihad with the overt help from the US agencies in the eighties. The Frankenstein of Islamic radicalism has grown and is in danger of running out of control. The terror groups have global support and linkages. Many of them are nurtured and supported by the Pak agencies. Some are acted against. This is a complex picture and a shifting one.

Pakistan’s location will always make it important for outside powers. The relations with US are strained but those with China are becoming stronger. Pakistan has learnt how to derive benefits from its location. That is why international sanctions against Pakistan will not be easy to impose. One or the other Security Council member will oppose them.

Pakistan’s economy is in the doldrums. There is talk of new bailout package from the IMF. China may step in to save the country. But it will derive its pound of flesh. The two countries are now discussing the next phase of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) up to 2030. The chances are Pakistan will become highly indebted to China and cede space to it.

Pakistan is modernising its armed forces. It has developed an elaborate nuclear and missile programme with Chinese help. It has developed short range nuclear capable missiles and experimenting with MIRV capable missiles. It is also developing second strike capabilities. India now faces a China-Pakistan collusive threat on the military front. The Gwadar Port can easily become a naval base for China and there is talk of a new port-cum-base at Jiwani nearby.

Dealing with Pakistan

India faces this perennial issue of how to deal with Pakistan which regards it as an existential threat, supports terrorism and proxy war, has nuclear weapons and missiles, is developing Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW), and gets all the help from China. Let us accept it: We have failed to deal with Pakistan in seventy years. Pakistan has tied us down to the region and affected our natural growth. Terrorism is its gift to India. As we speak, the Line of Control remains hot. Infiltration in Kashmir, though diminished, continues. Pakistan support to Hizbul Mujahedeen, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad continues. Terror strikes on military bases have gone on. By resorting to bombarding civilian populations along the border areas, it is trying to instigate the resentment amongst civilian populations. Pakistan continues to try India’s patience.

In India all the public attention is focused on whether or not to talk to Pakistan and not on the strategic aspects of this challenge. The political parties use the Pakistan issue to gain brownie points instead of building national consensus on the approach we should adopt. In my view, diplomacy should be left to diplomats. Whether they talk, if so with whom and how and that is something they will decide. In the past there have been several rounds of discussions under the framework of so called “composite dialogue”. As has been noted by former High Commissioner to Pakistan, Mr Satissh Chbdra, “It is also an unpleasant reality that even as the composite dialogue was underway, through 2004 and 2008, there were as many as 21 major terrorist actions against India, including the 2005 bombings in a Delhi market and the 2006 Mumbai train attacks. Moreover, apart from not satisfactorily addressing India’s concerns on terrorism, the composite dialogue also showed no success in resolving any of the big ticket items namely J & K, Siachen Glacier, Tulbul Hydro Project, and Sir Creek delineation. Progress on each of these issues was stymied by Pakistan’s inflexibility.” So when we talk about dialogue, the chequered history of India-Pakistan dialogue must be kept in mind. Dialogue for dialogue’s sake is of no use unless the intentions behind dialogue are honorable.

India has continued to talk with Pakistan with mixed results. Right now nothing useful will come out of talking. That does not mean talking is forbidden forever. In fact, the National security Advisors (NSA) talk regularly on terrorism related issues. The conditions will have to be right for meaningful talks to take place. Some channels of communication, may be at the Track-2 level, can be kept open. Official level talks in public glare often prove ineffective and counterproductive.

Instead, India should focus on adopting a strategic approach and building its strengths – military, economic and soft power. India will have to face a hostile Pakistani for a long time. That is a given. Pakistan is also going to change as everyone else is changing. That is why understanding Pakistani intentions and strategy is so important. Our counter-terror capabilities will need to improve continuously.

Pakistan has many vulnerabilities too and India has many leverages. Economic vulnerabilities are obvious. CPEC may turn out to be a liability in the long run. We should lay special attention to the developments in its provinces. Baluchis are restless. There is unrest in Gilgit Baltistan. The Pashtuns are also indulging in long marches. India needs to watch these developments carefully and factor them in its policies. Pakistan also faces water shortages and depends upon the waters of river Indus and its tributaries. That is why despite some vicious rhetoric, Pakistan cannot afford to give up on the Indus Water Treaty from which it has gained. India should review its involvement in the Indus Water Treaty.

In dealing with a country like Pakistan, Indian cannot afford to close any option. Our approach should be guided by national interest and not emotions. If Pakistan harbors unremitting animosity towards India, we cannot pretend not to notice it. Today India’s image in the world is much better than before. Indi can play a much bigger role in the region. By focusing on Pakistan’s collusion with terrorism, India has a better chance of isolating Pakistan. India should focus on other countries in the neighborhood and build strong regional networks. As the gap between Indian and Pakistani capabilities increases, India will have a better chance of dealing with that country.

I am sure some of these issues will be deliberated at length in this seminar. You must come out with a strategy for dealing with Pakistan and actionable suggestions.

I wish you all success.