“Exploring Emerging Opportunities for India in South East Asia”, Address by Dr Arvind Gupta, Director VIF, at the Vivekananda Kendra Institute of Culture (VKIC), Guwahati Foundation Day, 31 January, 2018

At the outset, I wish to thank the organisers for inviting me to the Vivekananda Kendra Institute of Culture (VKIC) to deliver the Foundation Day Address.

India’s North-East region is a unique region. Rich in cultural diversity, it is surrounded by Bangladesh, Bhutan, China and Myanmar. It is here that South Asia meets South East Asia. It here that the diverse cultures of South Asia and South East Asia meet. The intermingling of cultures has taken place over the centuries. Myanmar, which has over 1600 km of border with Manipur, Nagaland and Arunanchal Pradesh, is a gateway to South East Asia. It also has maritime border with India as do Indonesia and Thailand. The Andaman Nicobar Islands are closer to Myanmar, Thailand and Indonesia and to the Malacca Straits than to mainland India. The influence of South East Asia on India’s North-East and on maritime territories is marked. The cultures of North Eastern region of India and that of South East Asia have influenced each other.

At the heart of growing India-ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) engagement is the 2,000 years old cultural and civilizational ties. The ASEAN region in ancient times was known as Suvarnabhumi, the land of gold. There are heavy influences of Hinduism and Buddhism in the region. Buddhism has formed the crux of India-ASEAN cultural connection, with Buddhists from the region undertaking voyages to Bodh Gaya and some other shrines and temples in India. The syncretic culture of Southeast Asia is evident in Buddhism being practiced in Hindu temples in Cambodia, Muslim wedding rituals and dress in Malaysia which are based on Hindu rituals and attire; Naga and Kuber which are prevalent in both Hindu and Buddhist cultures can be seen carved in many places. A Mahabharata Monument depicting Krishna and Arjun riding a chariot pulled by eleven horses is placed prominently in a park in central Jakarta. Southeast Asia absorbed and retained its past Indian influence in a very distinctive manner over the centuries and today it has molded into the Southeast Asian culture.

India and South East Asia share long, complex history. For centuries there has been two-way migration of people, ideas, trade and commerce and religions in the region. Not long ago, in the Nineteenth Century, millions of Indians from all over India crossed the Bay of Bengal as well as through land routes went to Myanmar, Malaya and Singapore for trade and commerce. Many came back. Many settled down in these parts. The Indian National Army (INA) under Subhash Bose wanted to defeat the British and so undertook daring military operations from Singapore right up to Imphal.

The evolution of India's ‘Look East’ policy can be traced to the changed context of the international system in the early 1990’s. The policy, launched in 1991, has its genesis in the end of the Cold War following the collapse of the Soviet Union. India as an Asian country was always been interested in solidarity with other Asian countries. The real genesis of the Look East policy can be traced to the early years of Indian independence. In the mid-1940’s and 1950’s there were concerted efforts to develop cooperation with Asian and other developing nations of the world. Indeed, India supported the anti-colonial movements in the South East Asian region.

It is ironic that due to geopolitical factors, India and Southeast Asia developed a distance in the second half of the 20th Century. China’s attack on India in 1962 severely dented India’s prestige in Asia and India’s efforts to forge close bonds between India and Asia suffered a severe setback. As I K Gujral said in one of his speeches in 1996, every aspect of India's ethos reflects the "footprints of South-East Asia", and that "the forces of history and circumstances intermittently disturbed this closeness. Colonialism and the Cold War, despite our efforts to come together, drew artificial boundaries between us."

The South East Asian countries have been undergoing complex political and economic transformation. The region remained unsettled for several decades. Democracy took time to take roots in many countries. The region also became an arena of Cold War rivalries and bloody proxy wars. India thus got cut off from the region. When the ASEAN was formed in 1967, India was invited to join but it refused. ASEAN was seen as belonging to the US military camp while India was non-aligned. It is only after the demise of Soviet Union that the global balance of power shifted. India had to realign its policies. It began once again to look towards the East and reclaim its role and place in the region. The ‘Look East Policy’ was born in 1991 during the tenure of Narasimha Rao as Prime Minister. The process of re-establishing and restoring the severed links between India and South East Asia is still underway. A lot has been done in the past 25 years but a lot more still needs to be done.

We must appreciate that not being in South East Asia has taken a heavy toll on India. India’s sensitive North East region has always been impacted by the developments in South East region. The golden triangle of Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar has been the main arena for drug trade. The region also has a flourishing illegal arms market which fuels instability in India’s North East region. Insurgents groups form the North East find shelter in the neighbouring countries. Our security interests were seriously jeopardised. Apart from security implications, India missed out on the opportunities for growth and development. India has a natural role in the region. In India’s absence, China has moved in rapidly. This has been at the expense of India. India should re-establish its links with ASEAN quickly. ASEAN is India’s neighbour and has a key role in India’s security and prosperity.

The process of reaching out to the ASEAN that began 25 years ago has moved in incremental steps: Look East Policy (1991), sectoral dialogue partner (1992) of ASEAN, a full dialogue partner (1996), membership of Asian Regional Forum (ARF, 1996), membership of East Asia Summit (EAS, 2005), Free Trade Agreement (FTA, 2009), membership of ASIAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM plus, 2013), and the Act East policy (2014). Presently, a comprehensive economic partnership agreement is under negotiations. India is also taking part in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations. Security cooperation has expanded with many countries. Connectivity has improved. What is interesting is that the scope of Asia Executive Programs (AEP) now extends beyond ASEAN and encompasses Japan, South Korea, Australia and even Fiji. The concept of Indo-Pacific is also a part of India’s gaze towards the East.

The point to be noted is that these steps have transformed the relationship but we are still far away from realising the full potential of India-ASEAN relations. China, another major presence in the ASEAN, has moved far ahead and is firmly ensconced in the region. It actively hinders India’s growing engagement with the South Eastern region. This has impacted India’s security interests adversely.

India has taken major steps to deepen cooperation with the ASEAN. In an unprecedented foreign policy gesture, India hosted 10 leaders from the ASEAN countries as Chief Guests for its 69th Republic Day Parade, thereby marking renewed levels of engagement and symbolism between India and ASEAN. The occasion was also significant as India and ASEAN celebrated 25 years of their dialogue status. The 25th Summit Meeting marked the emergence of new consensus on the need for boosting cooperation on wide-ranging issues. The ‘Delhi Declaration’ signed at the end of Summit Meeting articulated several immediate concerns as ASEAN and India and called for measures to deepen security, economic and socio-cultural cooperation, and connectivity. These include joint mechanisms for maritime transport, trade and a ‘code of conduct’ for the South China Sea.

The changing geo-political environment in the Asian region, characterised by China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean, its assertion in the South China Sea and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have caused serious concerns about stability in the South East Asian littorals. The concerns over security and stability have increasingly drawn India and ASEAN countries closer. In the past, the Cold War alliance politics had distanced several South East Asian countries from India. The end of Cold War, however, presented unique opportunity to reap the potential of geographic proximity between India and ASEAN countries. Today, the core aspect of India-ASEAN convergence is to enhance maritime domain awareness in order to preserve maritime security in the region, protect crucial shipping lanes or the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs), and address various traditional and non-traditional security threats in the region. There is continued interest in strengthening maritime security, combating international terrorism, anti-piracy and non-traditional transnational threats, and coordinating responses to natural disasters. Counter-terrorism has emerged as strong point of convergence in India-ASEAN relations. With counter-radicalisation programmes instituted in Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia, which correspond to the initiatives taken in India, the Delhi Declaration embodies the collective cooperation to fight terror in all manifestations. Fighting terror has also figured into bilateral meetings in India-ASEAN relations.

On trade and connectivity issues, India and ASEAN are extremely important for each other. With 644 million population and combined GDP of $2.7 trillion, ASEAN is a large economy. It also enjoys annual per capita income of $4,200. If you combine India and ASEAN, you have a $5 trillion economy, third largest in the world after the US and China. There are a multitude of connectivity projects between India and ASEAN to enhance economic cooperation and developing regional connectivity into Southeast Asia through a host of linkages across the air, land and sea. India has commissioned $1 billion credit in December 2017 to build connectivity with Southeast Asia and $77 million towards developing manufacturing hubs in the Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV) countries.

In terms of land connectivity, the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral (IMT) Highway proposed in 2002 has been delayed to 2020 from the stipulated completion in 2015. The initiative linking Moreh in Manipur, India, Mae Sot in Thailand and Bagan in Myanmar was further extended to link the Highway through Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam in its second phase. The project has seen impediments in the form of difficult mountainous terrain, resistance by certain insurgent groups and issues of cooperation between India, Myanmar and Thailand, which needs to be sorted amicably. In 2016, India and Myanmar signed Memorandum of Understandings (MoU) for the improvement and construction of bridges in the IMT, within which India agreed to repair 69 bridges along the Highway and provide assistance for various road stretches in Myanmar. Accordingly, India has successfully completed upgrading the Tamu-Kalewa-Kalemyo 160 km section whereas work on the Kalewa-Yargi sector is ongoing by the Border Roads Organisation. Prime Minister Modi has established a Special Task Force reinforced with financial assistance to overcome the obstacles and ensure that the new deadline of 2020 is fulfilled.

The sea connectivity from India to Southeast Asia has been linked from the Kaladan multi-modal transit route. It seeks to connect Kolkata to Sittwe Port in Myanmar which then extends to Lashio through the Kaladan River, returning to Lashio and Mizoram by road. Maritime connectivity between India-ASEAN is being enhanced through development of shipping links between the Eastern seaboard of India - Ennore, Vizag, Chennai and Sagar - to the CLMV countries as well as improvement of existing links with established partners such as Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand. India has also undertaken the Sagarmala project for port modernization and development, improving port connectivity, coastal community development and port-linked industrialization, in order to integrate India’s maritime sector into the economy and thereby enhance trade volume with the ASEAN countries.

Way Forward

Indian policymakers had long realised the strategic importance of the ASEAN region. The Act East Policy is a push in the right direction that is focused on strengthening relations through greater economic and cultural exchanges. To sustain the current levels of partnership and synergy, however, it requires lot more groundwork as progress remains stunted on several key issues.

For instance, the RCEP negotiations launched in 2012 have been held up, largely because of Indian concerns over unfettered access to Chinese goods, and ASEAN resistance to movement of Indian services and labour. Further, trade in services remains largely protected in ASEAN member countries. The services sector is a major source of India’s GDP growth while the ASEAN countries are mainly the manufacturing-based economies. As India has a comparative advantage in services and IT-related sectors, domestic regulations in ASEAN economies need to be liberalised to promote cross-regional cooperation. The two-sides stand to grow immensely by drawing on their complementary economic strengths.
The other major incomplete project is on connectivity between ASEAN countries and India, as well as India’s connectivity through its Northeast to Myanmar and beyond. Work on extension of the IMT Trilateral Highway, the Kaladan multi-modal highway, and Tamu-Kalay rail link to Myanmar has lagged behind deadlines. These projects need to be completed expeditiously.

The 25th Summit Meeting also drew attention to issues of improvement in border infrastructure, especially the border posts, and infrastructure in the Northeast for attracting investment in the region. The challenges of inadequate physical connectivity (road and rail linkages), along with infrastructural bottlenecks (non-tariff barriers) also need to be addressed to strengthen India-ASEAN partnership.

India and ASEAN have strengthened information sharing to combat non-traditional security threats in the region through regional agreements such as the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and through combined initiatives to strengthen regional maritime institutions such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS). The outlook for India-ASEAN maritime cooperation of 2017 identified areas of high potential for collaboration in intelligence-sharing between Singapore’s Information Fusion Centre (IFC) and India’s Information Management and Analysis Centre (IMAC) for enhanced maritime domain awareness. Due to sensitivities of sharing water spaces, the IFC could provide information on the submarine movements to the IMAC, in order to develop India’s maritime surveillance capabilities in the Indian Ocean Region.

Cyber Security cooperation has also been the focus of India-ASEAN relation. The focus is to strengthen cyber-security capacity building and policy coordination including support through the implementation of the ASEAN Cyber Security Cooperation Strategy, and ASEAN Regional Framework Plan on Security of and in the use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). The First ASEAN-India Cyber Dialogue is also proposed to be held in 2018. Delhi has strategic dialogues with the major states in Southeast Asia and holds military exercises with them from time to time. The Indian Navy makes regular port calls. It trains personnel and repairs equipment. It sells arms and provides military credits to some.

Conclusion

The challenge before India is how to upgrade its relations with ASEAN. The ASEAN countries want to deeper ties with India but will not like this to happen at the expense of their ties with China. China is deeply entrenched in the ASEAN. This worries them and they see India as a balancer. But they also hesitate for obvious reasons. They are watching with close interest and even some anxiety, the resurgence of the ‘Quadrilateral’ (Quad) and Indo-Pacific initiatives. They want to understand as to how will Quad develop, and will the concept of Indo-Pacific affect the centrality of ASEAN. India has stated that ASEAN centrality will be maintained. But they want to have more clarifications.

India has unprecedented opportunities in ASEAN. In the cold war years we missed out. This time we should do better.