National Seminar: South Asia Studies Centre, University of Rajasthan, Jaipur, 22 January 2018

‘Changing Dynamics of India’s Security: Domestic and External Dimensions’ - Keynote Address by Dr. Arvind Gupta, Director, VIF, New Delhi

I would like to thank the organizers to inviting me to this important conference. The South Asia Studies Centre, University of Rajasthan, is a venerable institution which has produced some of the finest experts. The theme they have chosen for the national seminar is apt.

A World in Transition

The world order is in transition. One of India’s neighbors is aspiring to a great power status, becoming assertive in its behavior and beginning to constrict India’s geostrategic space in its neighborhood and in the Indian Ocean. The other neighbor, driven by its genetic anti-Indianism is hell bent on destabilizing India by supporting terrorism and by teaming up with the other neighbor. India’s immediate neighborhood remains volatile and unstable.

In the meanwhile, India’s integration with global economy has increased. It is not only affected by the developments in the neighborhood but also in the immediate neighborhood and globally. Foreign trade constitutes nearly forty percent of our GDP. Tens of millions of Indians and persons of Indian origin live and work abroad. India imports nearly eighty percent of its hydrocarbon needs form abroad.

In the last few decades the domestic political and economic scenario has undergone a major change. India has managed to keep a lid on the internal security challenges it has faced since the beginning. The rapid economic growth has seen millions of people coming out of poverty. Governments have sought to follow inclusive policies. India is a country which has among the youngest populations in the world. The new social and economic trends also point to some new challenges on the internal security front.

The External Environment

The external security environment is becoming highly complex with newer areas of contestation and conflict emerging on the horizon. With the end of the cold war, the balance of power has changed. The brief unipolar moment ended with the global and financial crisis of 2008. The 9/11 got the US involved in highly expensive, open ended wars which the US has not been able to win. The end of the Iraq war and the US exit from Iraq led to the birth of ISIS, the rise of radicalization of the youth across the world including in the democratic societies of the West, and the morphing of terrorism into many forms. Many civil wars are running concurrently in the highly sensitive region of the Middle East. India has not remained unaffected by these developments. On the East of India, the Asia has become unstable with the near occupation of the South China Sea islands by China and the high tensions over the nuclearized North Korea.

China is also making inroads into India’s neighborhood. The US $ 56 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), US $ 26 billion projects in Bangladesh, construction of Humbantota Port in Sri Lanka, construction of ports, roads and pipelines in Myanmar, and inroads into Maldives and Nepal are examples of China’s strategic penetration of India’s immediate neighborhood. The setting up of a naval base in Djibouti and its constant presence in the Sea of Aden for anti-piracy operations for the last 10 years shows that China is becoming an Indian Ocean power.

As China rises, the Us influence seems to decline. The shutdown of the US government due to wrangling between the Republicans and Democrats does not project an encouraging image of a confident country. Constant harping of the US president on burden sharing sends out a worrying and negative signal to the allies who depend upon the US for their security. The US’s ability to stand up to China needs to be tested.

Hostility between Russia and the West has pushed the Russians close to the Chinese. The China dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Russia dominated Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) seem to have pushed the US to the margins of the politics in the Eurasian heartland which Mackinder had considered as the heartland of the world.

It is in this context of geography, politics and economy that we need to analyze our security environment, the security challenges before us and how we are coping with them. In the era of globalization, changing balance of power and the inexorable growth of technology, the security paradigm is also changing.

Key Features of the changing National Security Paradigm

The national security paradigm is shifting rapidly. While traditional national security issues like the threat from Pakistan, China, militancy’s and insurgencies remain potent, new dimensions of national security are becoming salient.

i. Increasingly, national security is being regarded as a holistic concept which includes the traditional as well as non-traditional components. The distinction between the two is blurring.
ii. However, our institutional structures, based on the separation of functions, and geared to handle traditional challenges, are still not fully geared to deal with national security in a coordinated fashion. Institutional reforms as well as better coordination among institutions is needed.
iii. As for India, traditional security challenges constitute a mix of threats from Pakistan, China, extremism in J&K, Left Wing Extremism (LWE), and terrorism, whereas non-traditional security challenges encompass the domains of food, water, environment, ecology, technology, internal security etc.
iv. A close examination of these challenges reveals that each one of them is connected to one or more other threats and calls for a robust security architecture which is autonomous, dynamic and capable of dealing with these growing threats in real time.
v. The nature of conflict is changing. The concept of hybrid warfare or fifth generation warfare will make it imperative that the future wars will be fought in multiple domains simultaneously, i.e. land, air, seas, cyber space, outer space and information space. War-fighting will involve a ‘whole-of-government’ and ‘whole-of-nation’ approach.
vi. Maritime space is critical for Indian security. Historically, India had been a maritime nation. When it was cut off from the seas and oceans as its maritime power declined, it became colonized. Order on the high seas and coastal security are becoming important dimensions of national security.
vii. Climate change due to global warming is having deep impact on weather systems, terrains and oceans, and on our security. The changing weather patterns leads to massive human and economic losses every year and detracts from the GDP. Climate change is regarded as an existential threat. The impact of climate change on national security is direct as well indirect. Natural disasters are becoming more severe and lethal. Impact of climate change on Armed Forces in so far operations are concerned needs to be studied and incorporated in military operations.
viii. India is deficit in strategic infrastructure. This will play a crucial role on the operations of the Armed Forces. In contrast, China has built strategic infrastructure of high quality in Tibet. Asymmetry between India and China will have a major role on India’s Armed Forces.
ix. Cyber warfare is a reality. Critical infrastructures like power generation plans, transmission grids, pipelines, railways, stock markets, banks, etc. are highly vulnerable. India needs to be prepared for both defensive and offensive warfare. The security of under-sea fiber optic networks becomes very important.
x. In the outer-space, the proliferation of smaller satellites has made the task of monitoring much harder. Both China and the US have carried out anti-satellite tests and raised the specter of weaponisation of the outer-space. India must be watchful of developments in the outer-space and forecasting potential challenges to its security.
xi. Terrorism remains a key concern, a threat to national security, national values, and national sovereignty. It is morphing into a hydra-headed monster. North Africa and West Asia are connected in seamless manner in this respect.
xii. The use of social media for spreading radical ideas is increasing. Radicalized society will give fillip to terrorism. Lone wolf attacks will increase.
xiii. We live in a highly interconnected world. Economic disruption can also have security impact. Any disruption in one part of the system can lead to disruption in connected systems through positive feedback loops. The rise in indebtedness of China is a potential global economic risk. As we have seen in the past (2008), global financial risks can lead to recession joblessness and associated problems.

The Internal Security Environment

i. India so far handled its internal security challenges well. The integrity of the country has been maintained. Democracy has flourished. The pace of economic growth has increased and millions have been brought out of poverty. India is on way to become the third largest economy in the world. Government has several schemes which can transform India into a prosperous society in a few decades. Terrorism, though a threat, seems to have been contained. The secular trend of violence in North East, LWE areas and in Kashmir is declining
ii. Yet, the internal security threat matrix is also imbibing new elements such as youth aspirations, jobs, gender violence, citizen’s rights, farmer distress, caste conflicts, assertion of the deprived sections, reopening of historical faultiness, urbanization, pollution, gender disparities, health of democratic institutions, social stratification, differentiation and polarization. There is a danger that insufficient economic growth, and politics based on narrowly defined interests can damage to the social fabric of the country.
iii. Environment and ecology are under great stress from unplanned development. India is becoming a water stressed country, its natural resources are getting polluted, the agriculture is in distress. The country is highly vulnerable to the vagaries of climate. Environmental degradation can have deleterious impact on economic growth and human well-being.
iv. India is a diverse country. It has multiple religions, languages and ethnicities. In the Indian context, maintaining social unity and stability is essential. Politics based on narrow interests, rather than on national interests, can bring in instability. Divisive tendencies become particularly sharp during election times. In this context, Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (development for all) is not merely a slogan. Inclusive and broad-based development is an antidote to narrowly defined political agendas.
v. India requires a sustained and inclusive economic growth if it has to achieve its place in the world. Vikas can also mitigate internal and external security challenges. Rising economic inequality and jobless growth can prove to be detrimental to national security. The energy and aspirations of the youth need to be channelized in a constructive direction.

The Way Forward

In order to deal with the newly emerging challenges certain steps are essential.

Firstly, we should develop an Indian narrative on national and international security based on national interests, Indian values and ethos. In order to develop an Indian narrative, India must look deep into Indian ethos, culture and civilizational values. There is enough wisdom in the Indian ancient texts which can be applied to the present day situations of conflicts and strife. The Vivekananda’s stress on India as a Vishwaguru, a mother civilization, needs to be studied.

A number of measures need to be taken in order to strengthen India’s overall security architecture.
i. Firstly, there is an urgent need to address various shortcomings in country’s higher defence framework. These include measures such as the appointment of Chief of Defence Staff, enhancing defence expenditure, promoting defence exports, putting in place maritime security framework, etc.
ii. The apex institutions responsible for governing national security such as the National Security Council (NSC) also need to be strengthened. Presently, the NSC is an advisory body. Its role should be enhanced. The inter-agency coordination can be further streamlined in for effective intelligence collation and distribution. This will drastically improve responses be various internal security threats. India needs to place greater premium on bringing greater value to evidence based framework for its counter-terrorism strategy.
iii. Threats to national security can be effectively countered unless we embrace science and technology. There being an urgent need to bring in the best quality technology to enhance internal security. The progress in the adoption of newer technologies and equipment has been slow. It is critical that state increases funding for modernizing the equipment for the police forces. India should become a technological innovation hub and improve its global competitive rank. An eco-system of innovation needs to be created in India.
iv. There is urgent need for police reforms and the reform of the criminal justice system. Political will should be mustered to carry out these reforms. States spend too little on policing. In some states, the expenditure is less than one percent of their budgets. More resources are needed. Technology should be introduced in the police functioning.
v. We need to strengthen the study of strategic, defence, and security issues in our universities. Our think tanks must also be strengthened. These institutions must study the problems of security from an Indian perspective.
vi. Study of Indian history, philosophy, culture, civilization, religions, and languages must also be strengthened as part of national security studies so that our scholars promote an Indian perspective rather than the Western narratives. What we need is a Swaraj in ideas. Here, we need to delve deep into Vivekananda, Aurobindo, Tagore, Gandhi, Thiruvalluvar, and Indian civilizational texts. Then only will we be able to win a well-deserved place in the comity of nations and also look after our security concerns. Relevant ideas will have to be taken up, studied, modified if necessary and adapted to today’s circumstances.

In conclusion, if India has to advance to the ranks of major powers in the world, it should not only have the material strength of military, economy, and technology, but should also be able to contribute in the realm of ideas.