Fortnightly Review & Analysis - Neighbourhood Studies (Vol 2 Issue III)

February 1 -15, 2017

PAKISTAN

A New Wave of Terror?

After weeks of relative quiet, the second week of February saw a massive resurgence in attacks by the terrorist groups. The lull in the terror attacks was actually more perceptual than actual because while the frequency and ferocity of attacks had certainly shown a downward trend, virtually every day there were reports of some skirmish, ambush, target killing by the terrorists. But since most of these attacks were taking place in the obscure, isolated and remote Federal Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) region and not in the big towns and cities of the heartland, an impression gained ground that all the chest-thumping by the Pakistan army of having broken the back of the terrorists was actually factual. That myth was blasted apart by a spate of attacks that not only demonstrated the reach of the terrorists but also their ability to strike in an almost coordinated manner all across the country.

The current wave of attacks started with a hit-and-run attack on a TV channel OB van in Karachi on February 12. A day later, two bomb disposal squad men died in Quetta while defusing a bomb. The same day, in South Waziristan three security force personnel died in a landmine explosion. But what shook Pakistan was the third attack on the same day – a suicide bomb attack in the heart of Lahore where a suicide bomber walked up to top police officials who were trying to negotiate with protesting pharmaceutical dealers who had blocked traffic outside the Punjab Assembly building and blew himself up. Six police officials, including a DIG and a SSP, and seven others were killed. The attack was claimed by the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), which is an affiliate of the Islamic State. It later emerged that the JuA had declared in a video released a few days before the Lahore attack that it was launching ‘Operation Ghazi’ against security forces, MPs, civil society activists, media and anyone else who they believed to be anti-Islam. Pakistani security force officials claim that the JuA has regrouped and has managed to form an alliance of terrorist groups, including the infamous Mullah Fazlullah, to fight against the Pakistani state. Interestingly, just around the time that the JuA was launching its Operation Ghazi, the commander of US forces in Afghanistan had in his testimony before the US Senate Defence Committee spoken about the increased activities of the Islamic State (IS) in the Af-pak region. According to Gen John Nicholson, the IS in Af-pak primarily was made up of former Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) cadres and drew most of it strength from Pakistani recruits.

Army says Hafiz Saeed Detained in ‘National Interest’; Countrywide Protests

In a press conference, the Spokesman of the Pakistan army has said that Hafiz Saeed detention was a ‘policy decision’ taken by ‘state institutions’ in ‘national interest’. This announcement sought to convey a message that the army was fully on-board on the decision to take action against Saeed and his cronies. Despite the fact that the detention is widely seen as an eyewash, it provided an opportunity to the opposition PTI and the Jamaat Islami to raise the flag of protest in the Punjab assembly. The PTI leader of opposition excoriated the government, lauding the ‘social service’ of the JuD and its ‘welfare’ arm, Falah-i-Insaniyat (FiF). He accused Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of succumbing to Indian pressure in acting against the ‘patriotic’ Saeed. Press reports in Pakistan quoted unnamed officials and claimed that the decision was the result of immense US pressure. For its part, the JuD, along with other religious parties and Kashmiri terrorist groups like the Hizbul Mujahideen, held protests all over Pakistan and even managed to rope in some Hindus who demanded the immediate release of Saeed.

Meanwhile, there were reports that the JuD had decided to carry out all its activities under a new brand name –‘Tehrik-e-Azaadi Jammu and Kashmir’ (TAJK). Within a couple of days, all the offices of the JuD had been reopened but under the banner of TAJK. A JuD spokesman even announced that in 2017 the JuD would function as part of TAJK, which according to him was ‘a union of political and religious parties working in Azad Jammu and Kashmir’. There were also reports that around 50 religious parties were now thinking of forming an alliance for the next elections. One report revealed that the JuD was now working to register a political party with the Election Commission of Pakistan.

Pakistan Planning to Aannex Gilgit-Baltistan through Back Door?

Some months back, there were reports in the Pakistani press that China was leaning on the Pakistanis to annex Gilgit-Baltistan region of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir – the region through which the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) connects China and Pakistan. At that time, these reports were denied. But a recent report claims that a reforms committee constituted by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for ‘constitutional reforms’ in the territory has made sweeping recommendations that will virtually tantamount to a de facto annexation of the area into Pakistan. According to reports, the committee has proposed giving Gilgit-Baltistan representation in the National Assembly and Senate of Pakistan. Unlike normal provinces, Gilgit-Baltistan will get three National Assembly seats and a similar number of seats in the Senate. What is more, Gilgit-Baltistan will also be given a formal share in the National Finance Commission award. The proposals are being opposed by politicians in the other part of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) which is euphemistically titled ‘Azad’ Jammu and Kashmir. According to these politicians, implementing such proposals will not only strengthen India’s case in Kashmir but also formalise the division of that portion of the erstwhile princely state that is under Pakistan's illegal occupation. These politicians maintain that the entire territory is part of Jammu and Kashmir and a new political entity will deprive the Kashmiris of their legitimate claim to the Gilgit-Baltistan territory.

FATA Reforms: Pressure Mounts for Merger with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa K-P

The last minute decision to drop the issue of FATA reforms from the agenda of the cabinet meeting on February 7 led to a huge furour among those who were eager to see the implementation of the recommendation of the FATA Reforms Commission (FRC) to merge the federally administered territory with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) province which would mainstream FATA and bring to an end the iniquitous colonial era Frontier Crimes Regulation laws that denied even basic fundamental rights to FATA residents. The FRC had been appointed by the Nawaz Sharif government and after holding wide consultations and deliberations with all stakeholders had recommended that merging FATA with K-P would be the best course for bringing FATA into the national mainstream of Pakistan. Although there were many people who did not agree with the solution recommended by the FRC, it was quite clear that the majority of political parties, civil society activists, tribal elders and other stakeholders supported the idea of a merger. Only two political parties – Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazal-ur-Rehman) (JUIF) - which has a strong presence in FATA because of its madrassa and mullah network - and Mahmood Achakzai’s Pukhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP) - which has virtually no presence in FATA – opposed the FRA recommendations. Many observers were of the view that both these politicians were muddying the waters at the behest of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif who himself had some political reservations on merging FATA with K-P before the next general elections partly because of its impact on his own support base in the Hazara belt of K-P and partly because of the additional resources that would have to be given to K-P which could be used for pork-barrel projects in places where the ruling Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz Sharif (PMLN) stood to gain more political dividends.

Even so, the decision to not take up FATA reforms came as a rude surprise and expectedly enough, those backing the merger were furious. Pashtun politicians from FATA and K-P, cutting across party lines, threatened a march on Islamabad that would shake the foundations of the government. As a result of the enormous pressure that was mounted, Nawaz Sharif issued a statement that the FATA reforms would be taken up at the next cabinet meeting. But it is still not clear if the cabinet will approve the merger plan or will try and put a spoke in the wheel to delay and even derail the merger proposal. According to Fazlur Rehman, the cabinet will pay lip service to the cause of mainstreaming FATA but will stop short of approving the merger plan.

US Denies Visa to Pakistan’s Islamist politicians

Although Pakistan has still not been put in the list of countries subject to the travel ban by the Trump administration, a senior Pakistani politician and Deputy Chairman of the Pakistan Senate, Maulana Abdul Gafoor Haideri of JUIF, was not issued a visa to travel to the US for a UN sponsored conference on climate change. The ‘technical refusal’ of the visa by the US authorities follows the open refusal by the US to grant a visa to another Senator, Hafiz Hamdullah, from Haideri’s party last year. Both Haideri and Hamdullah have a dubious record of supporting Islamist causes, ranting against the US, links with the Taliban and other such disreputable characters.

Reacting to the US refusal to give a visa to his deputy, the Senate chairman, Raza Rabbani, announced that no delegation from Pakistan's Senate could visit the US nor will the Senate entertain any US delegation until the US embassy gave an explanation for the ‘technical refusal’ of a visa to Haideri.

AFGHANISTAN

Peace Deal Back on Track After UN Lifts Sanctions on Hekmatyar

The Russians, who had been opposing the lifting of UN sanctions against the former Prime Minister and warlord, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, lifted their objections in the ‘national interest of Afghanistan’, and allowed the peace deal between the Afghan government and Hekmatyar to go through. The lifting of UN sanctions was critical because it will pave the way for Hekmatyar’s return to Kabul and allow him to participate openly in the political process. Although many people who suffered at the hands of Hekmatyar have criticised the lifting of sanctions against a person who they accuse of committing war crimes, many others have welcomed the move in the hope that it will serve as a template for national reconciliation.

Russia Steps Up its Regional Diplomacy; to Host 6-Nation Meet on Afghanistan

After the middle-east, the Russians have made a significant move to regain their relevance and influence in the region by announcing a regional conference to work out a peace plan in Afghanistan which it is believed will also help in combating the growing IS footprint in Afghanistan. Apart from Russia, the other countries invited for the conference are Afghanistan, China, India, Iran and Pakistan. The absence of the US is conspicuous but according to the Russians the US hasn’t been invited because the Trump administration has still not decided its Afghan policy. The Afghan government which was cut up with the Russians after they held a trilateral conference with China and Pakistan on Afghanistan while keeping the Afghans out of the deliberations, has welcomed the conference and sought a deeper security cooperation with Russia. Whether or not the Moscow moot will lead to a breakthrough is quite uncertain especially in light of the fact that despite Russia seeking a high level representation from all the countries, both Pakistan and India will be represented by a Joint Secretary level officer.

Meanwhile, the Russian Special Envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov has said that Russia is ready to cooperate with NATO forces for attainment of mutual goals in Afghanistan. Interestingly, Kabulov has also said that Russia wouldn’t want to see US troops withdraw from Afghanistan hastily as it could undermine all the progress made over the last fifteen years. Even as the Russians get into the Afghan act, the Chinese too are stepping up their engagement. The Chinese Special Envoy visited Kabul and informed his Afghan interlocutors that China has been encouraging the Taliban to join the dialogue process. More significantly, the Chinese envoy also said that China has told the Taliban that it recognises the Afghan government and that the only option available to the Taliban is to engage in talks.

Trump talks to Ghani; US Commander Admits Stalemate, Seeks More Troops

US President Donald Trump spoke to his Afghan counterpart on the phone and “emphasized the ongoing importance of the U.S.-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership and his support for the National Unity Government”. In terms of messaging, the readout of the conversation issued by the White House seemed somewhat lukewarm in terms of US assurances and commitment to the security of Afghanistan. This despite the fact that security and terrorism was the focal point of the telephone talk between the two presidents.

The telephone call followed the testimony of the US commander in Afghanistan Gen John Nicholson before the Senate Armed Services Committee. Gen Nicholson was candid enough to say that there is a stalemate in Afghanistan and that he needs a few thousand more troops, not so much for combat as for training and advising Afghan forces. He also squarely blamed ‘external support and safe haven’ (read Pakistan) enjoyed by the Taliban for the US forces failures in securing Afghanistan. Gen Nicholson was unhappy about the legitimacy being given to the Taliban by Russia on the specious grounds that Taliban was fighting the IS terrorists. He expressed the fear that Russia was deliberately undermining US and NATO in Afghanistan.

Security Situation

A UN report that around 3500 civilians were killed and around 8000 were injured in the ongoing conflict which has spread into civilian areas in Afghanistan in 2016 underlines the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. According to the US Special Inspector General Afghan Reconstruction (SIGAR) over the last two years, the area under the control of the Afghan army has reduced from 72% to 57%.

Over the last fortnight, Afghanistan was once again blooded in attacks by the Taliban and IS terrorists. Around 20 people were killed in a suicide bombing outside the Afghan Supreme Court. Responsibility for the attack was taken by the IS, though some Afghan analysts believe that the attack could have been the handiwork of the Taliban or the Haqqani network in order to pressure the government to not take any action against Anas Haqqani, a brother of the HN chief Sirajuddin Haqqani who is in the captivity of the Afghan security forces. In another suicide attack in Helmand, a Taliban terrorist attacked soldiers who were queuing outside a bank to collect their salaries and killed five soldiers, one civilian and wounded two dozen other people. The Helmand attack was claimed by the Taliban. In yet another attack, six Afghan employees of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) were killed by suspected IS gunmen in the northern Jowzjan province. Meanwhile, Afghan security forces carried out an operation against the Taliban in Helmand and claimed to have killed over 65 Taliban terrorists in the Sangin district.

Iran Replaces Pakistan as Afghanistan’s Largest Trade Partner

Even as the Afghan ministry of commerce has reported that trade volume with Pakistan has fallen by over 50%, the Afghan Chamber of Commerce and Industry has said that Iran has now become Afghanistan’s largest trading partner, replacing Pakistan. Around 25% of Afghanistan’s total foreign trade of $8 billion is now with Iran.

NEPAL

Nepal-India Bilateral Meeting on Power Trade Agreement

At the recently held meeting of the Nepal-India Joint Working Group (JWG) and the Joint Steering Committee (JSC) in Kathmandu, implementation of Power Trade Agreement (PTA) was discussed to bring three recently completed transmission line projects-Dhalkebar-Muzaffarpur, Raxaul-Parwanipur and Kataiya-Kushaha into operation. The Detailed Project Report (DPR) of new Butwal-Gorakhpur Transmission Line was also discussed. The other agenda of this meeting included expediting work on Arun and upper Karnali Hydropower projects.

Federalism will not Succeed in Nepal

Senior Nepali Congress leader and former finance minister Ram Sharan Mahat has said that implementation of federalism was a major challenge being faced by Nepal today. He further said that the political deadlock in Nepal was due to persisting disagreement among parties on the issue of federalism. The current state of chaos has been due to the vested interests of various political leaders. He urged the government to conduct civic polls as per the old structures of local bodies. He further criticized the Prime Minister for airing ‘dubious and contradictory’ remarks over holding of elections.

BHUTAN

European Union to Provide Euro 20m for Local Government Development

The European Union will, over the next five years, provide to Bhutan, Euro 20 m for capacity development of the local government and fiscal decentralization. This funding is part of the European Union Euro 42 m assistance which had been earlier announced for Bhutan. The first tranche of EU support is expected to be released within two months. A few more projects are also under consideration and if approved by EU, the total support would expand to Euro 48 million. This was disclosed by the EU Ambassador to Bhutan, Tomasz Kozlowski.

BANGLADESH

World Bank Asked to Apologize for Padma Bridge Graft Allegation

Bangladesh Law Minister Anisul Huq, has asked the World Bank to apologize to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for bringing charges of corruption in the Padma Bridge project. The demand for apology was raised during discussion in the BD Parliament after a Canadian Court acquitted three business executives on charges of planning to bribe Bangladeshi officials on the Padma Bridge job. Legal proceedings are being contemplated against the World Bank. Immense pressure has been mounted on Bangladesh when the World Bank brought the allegation, setting conditions and forcing Bangladesh to investigate the complaint.

Senior government officials, including the then Secretary Mosharraf Hossain Bhuiyan, were arrested and communications minister Syed Abul Hossain had to step down. Prime Minister’s advisor Moshiur Rahman was also sent on forced leave. Investigations by Bangladesh’s Anti-Corruption Commission found no proof of the allegations brought by World Bank. To the contrary, World Bank has rejected Bangladesh’s findings and withdrawn the funds it has promised for the project. Bangladesh is now building the bridge with its own money.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has recently stated that the Padma Bridge project suffered a setback due to a false graft allegation raised by the World Bank. The country has already achieved 7.11% GDP growth in the last fiscal year. Had the bridge project started in time, it would have added 1% to the country’s GDP. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said that her government had ensured that Bangladesh achieved a respectable position among the countries of the world. The Prime Minister who was speaking at a public forum asked government officials and all others to discharge their duties efficiently in order to make Bangladesh a middle income country 2021.

Dhaka Declared as a “High Threat Location”

Dhaka has been declared as a “high-threat” location for political violence and crime directed at, or affecting Washington’s “official interests”. The US State Department made this assessment in its 2017 Crime and Safety Report. It has issued an alert on the ongoing potential for extremist violence in Bangladesh. According to the report, financial scams, thefts and other criminal activities are prevalent in Dhaka.

Bangladesh to Stop Rohingya Militants Crossing into Bangladesh

Bangladesh is working with Myanmar security forces to stop Rohingya militants from crossing over into Bangladeshi territory. Around 69,000 Rohingyas have fled to Bangladesh to escape violence in the Buddhist majority Myanmar since October last year. This has strained the relations between the two countries. Around 1.1 m Rohingyas Muslim live in Myanmar’s Rakhine state where they face restrictions on their movement and have been denied citizenship. They have been declared as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Myanmar military launched in October 2016, what has been described as counter-insurgency operation in northwestern Rakhine state. The crisis is being discussed at a very high level. Bangladesh is seeking funds for its much criticized plan to relocate new and old refugees from Myanmar to an isolated and underdeveloped island in the Bay of Bengal called Thengar Char. Currently the Rohingyas have been given shelter in Cox’s Bazaar.

Over the past few months, the BD government has spoken with the Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi to work out ways to send back the refugees that Bangladesh calls “undocumented Myanmar nationals”. Bangladesh has suggested joint border patrols and joint border watch. Myanmar has yet to respond on the proposal for joint patrolling.

SRI LANKA

Foreign Minister Reiterates Government’s Commitment for New Constitution

Foreign Affairs Minister Mangala Samaraweera has in a statement said that the new Constitution of Sri Lanka will be the most potent weapon for non-recurrence of Sri Lanka’s conflict and its finalization would have to be given priority over accountability mechanisms. He assured that the government was committed to drafting the new Constitution that would pave the way for reconciliation. “Some people pull it backward even as others push it forward... but the government will certainly do it”, he said. Amid mounting criticism from sections of the Tamils and civil society on the pace of reconciliation, he admitted that the government had not proceeded as fast as it ought to have. He affirmed that there will be no U-turns, although there could be some detours, though the “destination remains the same”.

Drafting of the new constitution remains one of the cardinal challenges before the government to deliver upon in year 2017, failing which questions on Yahapalana government’s credibility will be raised within and outside Sri Lanka. Samaraweera’s statement is obviously aimed at assuaging rising concerns among the global community, human rights organisations and the Sri Lankan Tamils as well as the Tamil diaspora regarding delivery of promises on the front of federalism and reconciliation. But such sporadic statements may not totally ameliorate these concerns because, (a) delivery mechanism has indeed been very slow, and (b) the Foreign Affairs Minister is seen on certain occasions to be making statements running contrary to the President’s stand, thus creating an atmosphere of ambiguity regarding the government’s stand.

Tamil People’s Council (TPC) Pitches for International Probe into War Crime Allegations

There are speculation that the Unity Government of Sri Lanka might request UN Human Rights Commission (UNHRC) for more time to implement its resolution that was co-sponsored by Sri Lanka in September 2015. The Northern Province Chief Minister C. V. Wigneswaran-led Tamil People’s Council (TPC) comprising Tamil political parties and civil society groups have vehemently denounced the move, arguing that the government should not be given any more time.

They adopted a resolution at the “Eluga Thamil” rally held in Batticaloa on February 9, and the TPC called for an international investigation into what it described as, ‘the genocidal crimes perpetrated against the Tamil people'. Reiterating that the North and East is the traditional homeland of the Tamils, the TPC said the distinct socio-cultural and political identity of the Tamil nation could only be guaranteed and safeguarded by setting up a non-divided, autonomous unit of self-government in the North and East and that this was non-negotiable. Similarly, TPC has maintained that the construction of Buddhist temples in the North and the East must be stopped.

Sri Lankan Tamil politicians and Tamil diaspora have repeatedly and firmly rejected a domestic accountability mechanism to investigate alleged crimes perpetrated on them. They often cite that in his September 2015 statement, the UN Human Rights Commissioner Zeid Hussein has categorically stated that Sri Lanka’s judiciary was incapable of investigating crimes committed during the war. Against this backdrop, the resolution passed in September 2015 at the UNHRC suggested a hybrid mechanism to investigate these crimes. Yet, the Sri Lankan Government, which co- sponsored this resolution with other international stakeholders, has now reiterated that it would not be amenable to the participation of foreign judges in the accountability mechanism. It has rejected a hybrid mechanism and has suggested a domestic accountability mechanism. It is believed that the government has now requested for more time to establish this mechanism.

Referendum on Constitution Leads to War of Words Between UNP and SLFP

The issue of referendum on the proposed new constitution has created some divide between United National Party (UNP) and Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). While UNP has advocated a national referendum on the proposed new Constitution, SLFP has not yet decided to go for it. SLFP has appointed a committee to look into this matter. Some UNP parliamentarians are propagating a view that the UNP, with the consent of the SLFP, intends to go for a referendum. SLFP MPs have asked them to behave in a responsible manner as the National Unity Government represents both the political parties and not the UNP alone.

Two Wrongs Do Not Make a Right: VAC Tells Arjuna Mahendran
Former Central Bank Governor Arjuna Mahendran, who is charged as the key suspect in the Central Bank Bond Issue case by the COPE committee report, has claimed that his predecessor was involved in misappropriation of funds of the Central Bank. In response to the claims made by Mr. Mahendran, Voice Against Corruption Convener Wasantha Samarasinghe has said that financial misappropriation allegedly committed by Arjun Mahendran could not be swept under the carpet just because he alleged that his predecessor was also involved in such misappropriations. Even the audit report of Central Bank has clearly denoted that Mr. Mahendran had spent Rs. 66mn of CB funds for his own purpose on 163 occasions during a span of 21 months.

MALDIVES

Nasheed Willing to Contest Presidential Election in 2018

Former Maldivian president Mohamed Nasheed would be contesting the Maldives Presidential Election in 2018 as a candidate representing the Maldives Democratic Party (MDP). The announcement was made by Nasheed himself at a news conference in Colombo on February 9. Nasheed’s rationale is that since the United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention has already ruled his detention and arrest as unlawful and politically motivated. That ruling further goes on to say that his civil and political rights must be restored. Thus, according to Nasheed, this ruling clearly allows him to contest any election that he wants to contest. He further pointed out that President Yameen had not adhered to any international ruling. Even the move to opt out of the Commonwealth was driven by the fact that the Commonwealth wanted the Maldivian Government to carry out reform.

This announcement by Nasheed could make the present government of Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom look inward and slip into cocoon because Nasheed has been openly criticizing the government by making a case for misuse of law and abuse of power by the government. It needs to be noted that even former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom had earlier raised concerns about rising trends of authoritarianism in Maldives. These developments are likely to create an intense political churning prior to the 2018 Presidential Election.