Fortnightly Review & Analysis - Iran, West Asia, The Middle East, Eurasia, Africa & CAR (Vol 1 Issue XI)

(November 16-30, 2016)

IRAN, WEST ASIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Syrian Crisis

As much as the coalition military campaign against Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is making progress inside Iraq, pro-regime Syrian forces made further inroads in Aleppo. The military operation of this force is well-backed by heavy airstrikes. On 26-27 November, the mentioned forces seized “Masakin Hanano, Jabal Badro, Sakhur, and Haydariyah Districts of Eastern Aleppo City”. With this, nearly a third of the remaining pocket, which was earlier held by Syrian opposition forces, was recaptured. Simultaneously, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is mostly dominated by Syrian Kurdish fighters made further advancements in the “Sheikh Maqsoud District to seize positions at least five opposition-held neighborhoods”. These developments clearly reflected the systematic manner in which the forces loyal to the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, are trying unrelentingly to oust the rebels from wherever possible inside the country. These forces met with little resistance from the opposition fighters, and it was considered a significant development, particularly considering the centrality of Aleppo in the ongoing Syrian crisis. The speed at which the pro-regime forces recaptured the territories “surprised both the Syrian military and its backers as well as those who had vowed to defend opposition-held districts throughout 12 months of near constant bombardment and siege”. Some analysts are of the view that the Syrian government and its allies carry the objective of making Aleppo completely free from the hands of rebels before the United States (US) president-elect Donald Trump comes to office in January 2017. It is yet to be seen how the incoming US president will act vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis although he has already indicated his desire to abandon the support given by the US to the rebels. Meanwhile, concerns over humanitarian crisis are equally mounting. As it is, reportedly, 30,000 civilians from several districts in Aleppo have been displaced, and the United Nations (UN) estimated that at least 250,000 people are still trapped in this region. But Russia talked of more than 80,000 civilians getting access to humanitarian aid. Regardless of such claims, the crisis remains extremely muddled up due to involvement of different Western powers with their vested interests. However, with gaining influence of the Assad regime inside Aleppo, the crisis may be heading towards a turning point. As a result, the policy of the US, in particular, in the days to come is to be monitored closely.

New Government Announced by the Houthi Rebels in Yemen

At this stage when the Syrian crisis and the Mosul liberation campaign in Iraq have captured attention from the international community, an equally troubled country—Yemen—continues to witness certain developments. As it is with the Iraqi case, the crisis in Yemen is also extremely sectarian in its nature, and this is evidenced by the involvement of both the arch-rivals, Iran and Saudi Arabia, which are supporting their own proxies. On 26 November, the Houthi rebels and its allies announced the formation of a new government. Reacting sharply to this move, Rajeh Badi, spokesperson for the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, said that it is “a disregard not just for the Yemeni people, but also for the international community". This, however, is a significant breakthrough for the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels who have been facing crackdown from coalition forces supported by Saudi Arabia. The development, as a result, came much to the dismay of Riyadh which is vying for supremacy or hegemony inside this country similarly with Tehran. Further, the efforts of the UN to bring an end to the conflict in this country by forming a unity government are likely to be complicated although Houthis earlier talked of not abandoning the UN-sponsored peace process. Despite several ceasefire attempts and negotiations, a very insignificant progress has been made in resolving the Yemeni crisis. Such one-sided approach carries a high potential of escalating the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, over their influence in Yemen. In other words, the conflict is nowhere its end.

CAR

Turkmenistan Emerges as the Transport Hub

In this fortnight, a chain of events unfolded in Turkmenistan, which re-emphasized the transport and transit capacity of the country.

The first-ever Global Sustainable Transport Conference took place in Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan, on November 26-27, under the auspices of the United Nations. The Conference, which was convened by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, brought together key stakeholders from Governments, UN and other International Organizations, Private sector and Civil Society to engage in a dialogue on Sustainable Transport. High-level delegates in the Conference included President of Afghanistan Mr. Ashraf Ghani, President of Georgia Mr. Giorgi Margvelashvili, and Prime Minister of Pakistan Mr. Nawaz Sharif. President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, who inaugurated the Ashgabat Conference, stated that the creation of modern, integrated, balanced and high-tech transportation infrastructure is need of the time.

Following the Ashgabat Conference, on November 28, President of Turkmenistan Mr. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov and President of Afghanistan Mr. Ashraf Ghani inaugurated the Atamyrat- Imamnazar (Turkmenistan) - Akina (Afghanistan) Railway Line between the two countries. The launching ceremony took place at the Turkmen border station of Imamnazar. Inauguration of this Railway Line is the first stage of the 400km long International Railway Corridor, between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan. This project is likely to give a powerful boost to trade and transport between the three landlocked countries.

Both the aforementioned events can be seen in the light of Turkmenistan’s rising significance as a Transport Hub. The country has always served as the link between the South, West and Central Asia. In the modern period, the location of Turkmenistan is important for the movement of people, goods and energy throughout the region. Moreover, Turkmenistan has been actively pursuing development of global partnership in the transport-communications sector. Therefore, its role is considered vital in improving connectivity in the region.

Palestine Embassy Opened in Ashgabat

Embassy of the State of Palestine was officially opened in Ashgabat on November 16. The event was preceded by the visit of the Palestinian President Mr. Mahmoud Abbas, who was on his first official tour to Turkmenistan, on November 13-15. During visit, the President of Palestine held bilateral talks with his Turkmen counterpart Mr. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov. The two leaders signed an agreement on economic cooperation, and cooperation in the fields of higher education and tourism. President’s visit and opening up of the Diplomatic Mission are considered to be the starting point of a new phase in Turkmenistan-Palestine relations.

Turkmenistan has always emphasized on the principle of positive neutrality in the conduct of its foreign policy. The country has developed equitable and friendly relations with most of the countries of the region, including Iran, Israel, Pakistan, India, Russia and China. Its robust relations with Palestine are likely to bring the country closer to the Islamic world; however, it might upset its relationship with Israel. Therefore, is becomes necessary on part of Turkmenistan to balance between Palestine and Israel, while sticking to its principle of positive neutrality.

Uzbekistan and Turkey Press the Reset Button

President of the Turkish Republic Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Uzbekistan on November 17-18. He laid flowers on the burial site of President Islam Karimov in Samarkand, and paid homage to the First President of Uzbekistan. President Erdogan conveyed condolences to the Interim President of Uzbekistan, Mr. Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The two leaders, in a bilateral meeting, discussed the relations between Uzbekistan and Turkey, and exchanged views on important regional and international issues. President Erdogan’s visit to Uzbekistan is considered to be a Reset tactic between the two countries.

The relationship between Uzbekistan and Turkey had begun on the positive note in the initial years of Uzbekistan’s independence. In fact, Turkey became the first country to recognize Uzbekistan’s declaration of independence, on December 16, 1991. President Karimov visited Turkey immediately after the independence, where he stated that he had accepted the Turkish model of secularism for his newly born country. The two nations share ethnic and linguistic affinities, which bring them closer.

Nevertheless, Uzbekistan-Turkey relations suffered a blow in late 1990s. The factors responsible for souring of the relationship included Turkey’s support to Karimov’s political opponents, Turkish religious leader Gulen’s involvement in propagating Islamist ideas in some schools in Uzbekistan, and Uzbekistan’s closing down of Turkish TV channels in 2011. There has been no high-level visit between the two countries since 2003, when Erdogan visited Tashkent as the Prime Minister of Turkey.

However, in the changed global scenario, Erdogan’s visit to Uzbekistan is a welcome development. Most of the countries in the world, including Uzbekistan and Turkey, are suffering from problems like terrorism, extremism and fundamentalism. These trans-national threats call for consolidated efforts at the international level. The need for increased cooperation is further underlined by the domestic situation in Uzbekistan, where political transition is underway. In future, the improved relationship between Uzbekistan and Turkey shall be instrumental in maintaining regional stability.

AFRICA

South Africa, Burundi and Gambia Quits the International Criminal Court

After South Africa and Burundi it’s Gambia that has announced its withdrawal from the International Criminal Court, accusing the tribunal of the “persecution and humiliation of people of color, especially Africans”. The announcement came after similar decisions this month by South Africa and Burundi to abandon the troubled institution, set up to handle the world’s worst crimes. It’s been noticed that the court had been used for the persecution of Africans and especially their leaders while ignoring crimes committed by the west. There are many western countries, at least thirty that have committed heinous war crimes against independent sovereign states and their citizens since the creation of the ICC and not a single western war criminal has been indicted.

The ICC, set up in 2002, is often accused of bias against Africa and has also struggled with a lack of cooperation, including from the US, which signed the court’s treaty but has never ratified it. The Gambia has been trying without success to use the court to punish the EU for deaths of thousands of African migrants trying to reach its shores. The decision will also come as a personal blow to the court’s chief prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, a former Gambian justice minister.

The court asked South Africa and Burundi to reconsider their decisions to leave, which came as a major blow to the institution. South Africa’s decision followed a dispute last year when the Sudanese president, Omar al-Bashir, visited the country despite being the subject of an ICC arrest warrant over alleged war crimes. Earlier this month, Burundi said it would leave the court, while Namibia and Kenya have also raised the possibility.

India’s Friendly Assistance to Mozambique

High Commissioner of India, His Excellency Gaurav Shresth handed over a cheque of 10 million US Dollars to Minister of Industry and Commerce, His Excellency Ernesto Max Tonela on 21 November 2016 at Ministry of Industry and Commerce. This amount is a gift from the Government of India to the Government of Mozambique to help in imports of wheat. . This grant-in-aid was provided in response to a request from the friendly country of Mozambique, which has faced two consecutive years of drought leading to severe difficulties for its people. H.E. Ernesto Max Tonela while thanking the people and the Government of India for the timely assistance remarked that the grant would be used to ensure availability and distribution of wheat for the production of bread for the deserving sections of the Mozambican society. His Excellency, Mr. Ragendra De Sousa, Deputy Minister for Industry and Commerce was also present during the ceremony.

India and Mozambique have had long, warm and multifaceted relations. India was among the first country to open its embassy in Maputo, after Mozambique’s freedom in 1975. Mozambique is also home to nearly 20,000 persons of Indian origin who provide a human link between populations of both the countries. Mozambique is also among are most important economic partners in Africa and accounts for almost twenty five percent of India’s net FDI in Africa. A closer economic partnership is seen among both the nations as a vital ingredient while addressing India’s future need of energy and food security. Mozambique was also the first country in mainland Africa to be visited by Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi early this year. It is thus one of the most important countries for our future partners.

AfDB Approves $ 50mn Investment for Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Africa

The Board of Directors of the African Development Bank (AfDB) has approved a €50-million package of investments in various angel, venture, seed, accelerator and incubator funds with the aim of funding innovative start-ups and early stage small businesses across Africa. The Boost Africa Investment Program seeks to invest in truly innovative businesses, mostly operated by youth and that are positively ‘disruptive’ in a local market as ‘uniqueness’ in terms of the overall business model, products, services, delivery mechanisms, technology applied or otherwise.

The initiative is one of the first instruments of the Bank’s recently approved Jobs for Youth Strategy. This responds to the renaissance of such entrepreneurially driven and home-grown business models in various sectors such as for example energy, telecom, agribusiness, industry, and privately delivered social services, such as health and education, that have the potential to grow and contribute significantly to inclusive growth and job creation. The Boost Africa Initiative thus aims to spur the entrepreneurial power of the African youth to create innovative and compelling businesses with the capacity to compete regionally and globally, to attract domestic and foreign direct investments, to create new and quality jobs, and contribute to economic growth.

Innovative start-ups except financing also needs capacity-building support and adequate networks with business connections, which will be offered through the broader Boost Africa Initiative having a Technical Assistance and a Lab component. Boost Africa is expected to be a partnership with various investors and donors. AfDB developed the initiative with the European Investment Bank. The official joint launch took place in Abidjan. The contributions by the AfDB and others will leverage further investments into this sector, up to a total amount of €1 billion. The Boost Africa Initiative forms part of the AfDB’s High 5 priorities in particular improving the quality of life for the people of Africa and the related Jobs for Youth in Africa Initiative.