Fortnightly Review & Analysis - Neighbourhood Studies (Vol 1 Issue XII)

(December 1-15, 2016)

Pakistan

Panama Papers Scandal: Nawaz off the Hook for Now

The Panama Papers scandal, which at one time appeared to be a Damocles Sword hanging over the head of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, virtually petered out after the Supreme Court bench hearing the case decided that a new bench will hear it anew in January 2017. Ostensibly, the case was adjourned because the Chief Justice who was heading the bench is due to retire at the end of December and the intervening time wasn’t sufficient to reach any firm conclusion based on the evidences presented before the court.

The court ruling came as a shot in the arm for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif whose lawyer offered a bizarre explanation for his inability to present documentary evidence (which Nawaz Sharif had claimed was available) to explain the money trail of the London apartments owned by the Sharif family and which are in the eye of the political storm that had been buffeting the Nawaz Sharif government since April last. Nawaz Sharif’s lawyer declared that at the time the transactions were done in the Middle East, all business was done informally and on chits. Therefore, he said, there was no documentary evidence available. He nonchalantly dismissed as a ‘political statement’ the explanation given by Nawaz Sharif in Parliament about where the money for the controversial apartments came from. This unleashed a fresh political storm with the opposition deciding hold the PM accountable on charges of breach of privilege by making a false, if not untrue, statement in Parliament.

Clearly, the defence offered by the PM’s lawyer was rather disingenuous and it was a surprise when the court didn’t press the issue further. Instead, the court seemed inclined to form a judicial commission to go into the details of the allegations. While PML-N was quite all right with such a commission, the opposition PTI’s lawyer announced that it would boycott the commission. Subsequently there has been a rethink in the PTI, which also announced that it would end its boycott of parliament and would use the forum to demand answers from the PM. For now, however, it seems that the court has practically consigned the Panama Papers case to the cold storage. But Imran Khan isn’t inclined to throw in the towel just yet and has been threatening taking to the streets once again on this issue.

The grapevine is that while PTI and other opposition groups are very disappointed with the courts approach, they are going to keep agitating over this issue in one way or another to milk it until the next general elections due in 2018. How much traction it will get the PTI at the hustling’s is altogether another matter.

Gen Bajwa Reshuffles the deck of Generals

The new Pakistan army chief Gen Qamar Bajwa made sweeping changes in the top echelons within days of assuming office. Promoting seven Maj generals to Lt. Gen. Rank and in the process superseding around two dozen Maj Generals, a major shake-up has been effected in the army’s top brass. The new appointments not only are being seen as Gen Bajwa forming his own team, but are also believed to be indicative of his priorities. Five of the nine corps – Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Karachi, Multan and Bahawalpur - have new commanders, some of them newly promoted three-star generals. The former Karachi Corps Commander Naveed Mukhtar has been appointed the new DG, ISI, replacing Lt. Gen. Rizwan Akhtar who has been virtually side-lined and sent the NDU. Although the ISI chief is appointed by the PM, the new appointee has Gen Bajwa’s approval. By virtue of being married into the same family as Nawaz Sharif’s grand-daughter, Lt. Gen. Mukhtar is also related to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. How much this factor will play in favour of Nawaz Sharif in the event of a downturn in civil-military relations remains to be seen. Past record suggests that if the ISI chief doesn’t enjoy the confidence of the army chief, his effectiveness gets severely impaired.

Gen Bajwa also appointed a new Chief of General Staff, a pivotal position in the GHQ. Lt. Gen. Bilal Akbar had previously served as DG Sindh Rangers and was credited with leading the operations in Karachi, not only against MQM but also against the TTP and other terror and criminal gangs. Although he is one of the junior-most three-star general, his appointment as CGS is seen as the enormous trust and confidence that Gen Bajwa reposes in him. Yet another important appointment has been that of a new DG, ISPR. The ISPR has acquired quite an unsavoury reputation for the enormous spin-doctoring and control of the so-called independent media by the outgoing ISPR chief Asim Bajwa, who has now been appointed as IG, Arms, a rather non-descript appointment compared to the high-profile post of DG, ISPR. The post of the ISPR chief has also been downgraded by appointing a two-star general to head the publicity arm of the Pakistan army, which wags often call the Media Corps. It is expected that under the new ISPR chief, the military’s media wing will be less abrasive, interventionist, intrusive and over-bearing than it was during the four year stint of Lt. Gen. Asim Bajwa.

Heading Head-long into a Debt Trap?

In spite of all the drum-beating about how good the Pakistan economy is doing, the latest fiscal numbers have set alarm bells ringing for the more circumspect analysts of the Pakistan economy. According to reports, in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2016-17, the net revenue receipts of the federal government are lower than the debt servicing charges that are due in the same quarter. In other words, the government isn’t even able to meet its debt obligations – forget about defence and development expenditure – from its revenue receipts. If this trend continues, then it’s a clear indication that Pakistan is getting ensnared in a debt trap situation, something that economists have been warning for a few years now on the basis of the massive debt being incurred by the Pakistan government. Pakistan’s national debt has tripled over the last decade and in the last three years alone the government has taken nearly $25 billion in loans. Debt servicing is already the single largest head in the government’s budget. And this doesn’t include all the loans that are coming to Pakistan under the head of the much-vaunted CPEC.

World Bank ‘Pauses’ IWT arbitration

Pakistan's attempt to drag India into arbitration proceedings to resolve the alleged violation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) received a setback after the World Bank decided to ‘pause’ the setting up of arbitration proceedings on the Ratle and Kishenganga projects. The WB asked both countries to explore try and resolve the dispute amicably by engaging in bilateral discussions. The decision came after India raised the red flag on the WB initiating parallel proceedings – court of arbitration requested by Pakistan and appointment of a neutral expert requested by India. Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi has declared that India will use all the rights granted to it under the IWT and now allow any water that falls in India’s share to flow into Pakistan, there has been rising disquiet inside Pakistan over the future of the IWT. What has rattled Pakistan even more is the move by the Indian government to speed up the under-construction projects on the Indus water system rivers flowing from Indian territory. Pakistan is now weighing its options and in the meantime warning India that any abrogation or suspension or even gross violation of the IWT will be treated as a declaration of war.

Afghanistan

Heart of Asia Conference: No Mending of Hearts with Pakistan

Far from any mending of hearts between Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Heart of Asia (HoA) conference in Amritsar deepened the bitterness between both countries after President Ashraf Ghani pulled no punches in squarely placing the blame for the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan on the support and sanctuary given by Pakistan to the Taliban and other terrorist groups attacking Afghanistan. President Ghani rebuffed the $500 million aid offered by Pakistan and said that it would be better if Pakistan used this money to crackdown on terror networks operating from its soil. The Pakistanis however remained unrepentant and tried to put a spin on the entire HoA proceedings by blaming India for instigating and provoking President Ghani to excoriate Pakistan. They also maintained that blaming Pakistan for Afghanistan’s problems was an oversimplification of the issue.

The Great Game continues with new Strategic Alignments in Afghanistan

The situation in Afghanistan is likely to get murkier, what with reports of both Iran and Russia now lending support to the Taliban in the fond hope that the Islamic Emirate will be a bulwark against the Islamic State. The commander of US and allied troops in Afghanistan, Gen John Nicholson, has openly accused both Russia and Iran of providing legitimacy to the Taliban and in the process undermining the efforts of both the Afghan government and the international forces to stabilise the country. Taking a cue from the statement of Gen Nicholson, the Afghan Senate announced a probe into the military relationship between the Taliban and Iran and Russia. For their part the Russians have denied providing any support to the Taliban, though they have accepted that they have maintained contacts with both sides in order to assist a negotiated settlement. The Taliban, interestingly, have also denied receiving any support from the Russians but have used the formulation often used by Pakistan in the context of Kashmir to say that they have got Russia’s ‘political and moral support’ against a common enemy – the US and other foreign troops in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, the outgoing US Defence Secretary Ashton Carter made an unannounced visit to Kabul and said that the US and its allies remained committed to Afghanistan and will continue to provide support to the Afghan government till 2020. However, there is as yet no clear signal from the incoming Trump administration on its policy on Afghanistan, which in turn continues to fuel some uncertainty even as other countries like Russia, Iran and China, not to mention Pakistan, seem to be coming on the same page on the next steps that need to be taken in Afghanistan.

Nepal

Supreme Court issues Show Cause to PM Dahal, Speaker

Political debate in the country focused around the decision of the Dahal-led government to fulfill its commitments to the agitating Madheshi and others to address their concerns at least partially, through a Constitutional amendment Bill that was registered ( Nov. 29) by the government in the Parliament. The bill provides for creation of another province in the Tarai.

This was met with strong opposition from various groups. Advocate Tika Dhwoj Khadka filed a petition in the Supreme Court against the Speaker Onsari Gharti Magar, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and others, arguing that such an action is not permitted under the Constitution, without prior consent of the concerned provincial assembly. The apex court issued a Show Cause Notice to the Speaker, Prime Minister and other respondents and fixed the next hearing for December 20, 2016.

In a bid to resolve the issue, the Speaker held talks with Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba and CPN UML’S KP Sharma Oli. The talks however failed to evolve a compromise. CPN-UML told the Speaker that the government should first withdraw the Amendment Bill and begin a fresh process to build political consensus in the matter. CPN-UML and other three Communist parties have been stalling House proceedings terming the bill as anti-constitutional and against national interest. The Students Union close to the opposition parties have announced further agitation programmes against the Constitutional Amendment Bill, arguing that it would ‘disintegrate’ the country. They warned of continued agitation till the withdrawal of the Amendment Bill.

In a bid to break the political deadlock, PM Dahal invited top political and agitating leadership to seek a way out of the stalemate. The Madhes based parties, which initially refused to take the ownership of the Amendment Bill, have recently indicated of broader political participation instead of focusing only on Constitutional Amendment. In a departure from their earlier position, indications are that they might view the amendment as a positive move that addresses some of the major concerns on citizenship issue, representation in the Upper House of Parliament and language issue. The support however comes with a catch. The Samyukta Loktrantrik Morcha would like to describe the federal boundaries covering the districts of Jhapa, Morang, Sunsari, Kailali and Kanchanpur in the Tarai as “disputed areas” and not finally settled. Even within the Madhes, a significant section of political spectrum refuses to accept amendment proposals. The Samajbadi Forum Nepal has taken strong exception to the amendment saying that it fails to address the Madhesi concern. The current Madhesi agenda has been vehemently opposed by the UML. The party warns of continued obstruction in the House.

Three Parties Agree to hold Local Elections

In a seeming related move, leaders of the three major parties (NC, CPN-UML, and Maoist – Centre) have agreed, in principle, to hold local elections by April-May, 2017, even though the lead coalition partner, the Nepali Congress has called for holding the elections for posts under the present set up and not for the new set up after the proposed boundary demarcation. UML Chairman K.P. Sharma Oli clarified “We agreed to bring in laws required for polls at the earliest” keeping the amendment bills in abeyance. PM Dahal urged Oli to give up street protests.

In the meantime, Rashtriya Prajantra Party and the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF), an alliance of seven agitating Madhesh-based parties, after deliberating the issue, stressed that they will not accept civic polls without their concerns duly addressed through Constitutional amendments. They maintained that elections be held at all the three levels-local provincial and parliamentary.

It may be mentioned here that the Madhes region accounts for just 17% of the Nepal’s total area but it has more than 50% of the total population of Nepal. If the local bodies are restructured on the basis of population, Madhesh will have a larger share of pie in local bodies and the Upper House which is constituted through local representation.

With all these differences, parties will have to go to polls to seek public mandate for their respective agenda. PM Dahal requires channelizing and using his political deftness to reach out to the UML and the RPP on one hand and the Madhesi parties on the other to resolve the political stalemate. Tarai based political analysts suspect that the diehard supporters of the hill people will keep the issue hanging under one pretext or the other, continue coalition realignments to bring down governments and constitute new ones, but shall not give up the privileges that grant them the right to treat the ‘others’ as second class citizens. Such a perception does not bode well for the country in the long run.

Bangladesh

Sheikh Hasina rules out Mid-term Election

BD Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has ruled out any possibility of a mid-term election in the country. She categorically stated that her government was not in the middle point of its tenure and that it had successfully completed around three of its five year term. Responding to a question on Khalida Zia’s intention for holding talks with all political parties which have representation in Parliament since independence, Prime Minister said that Khalida Zia had brought the killers of Bangabandhu to Parliament and had made war criminals as ministers. She made it clear that there was no question to take Khalida Zia’s proposals into consideration.On her forthcoming though rescheduled India visit to be commenced early next year, Prime Minister was quite hopeful on a Teesta Waters Agreement breakthrough though she said that she would not be visiting India with a pre-condition.

Bangladesh, UNDP ink $ 31 m Deal for Chittagong Hill Tracts

Bangladesh and UNDP have signed an agreement for a new project focusing on sustainable and inclusive development of the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). The agreement was inked on the 1st of December, the eve of the 19th anniversary of the Chittagong Hill Tracts Peace Accord signed in 1997. Bangladesh has reaffirmed its commitment to fully implement the Chittagong Hill Tracts Peace Accord. The planned amount for the new project is $ 31.60 million of which about $ 14.6 million will be provided by Denmark, SAARC Development Fund, USAID and UNDP. Other development partners of Bangladesh will provide $ 12 million. The Bangladesh government will arrange the rest of $ 5 million. Over the next five years, a project titled ‘Strengthening Inclusive Development in the Chittagong Hill Tracts’ will be implemented. This is in continuation of another project namely “Promotion of Development and Confidence Building in the Chittagong Hill Tracts” that has been implemented with profound results since 2003 in the three hill districts of Rangamati, Khagrachari and Bandarban. The proposed field of development will address new and the remaining challenges in Chittagong Hill Tracts. It shall focus on the inclusiveness of all the communities in the area and shall emphasize on the ecosystem, social and institutional development. The executing agency of the project as per the agreement will be the Ministry of Chittagong Hill Tracts Affairs (MOCHTA).

Dhaka calls for Dignity of Migrants

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has called upon the international community to work together for lifting the migrants from misery and ensuring their dignity. While inaugurating the Ninth Global Forum on Migration and Development (GFMD) in Dhaka, she underscored on the upliftment of migrants from misery and agony. The immediate cause of concern is the influx of Rohingyas who have entered Bangladesh in recent weeks after fleeing violence in Myanmar. They have made temporary settlements in Teknaf’s Leda and Ukhiya’s Kutupalang. The Prime Minister stressed on the protection of the migrant rights in all situations. The Prime Minister said that in a diverse and connected world, migration is inevitable and essential. Therefore, the societies need to understand the benefits of diversity for harmony among all people including the migrants. The global development vision also known as Agenda 2030 recognizes migration as a key enabler of sustainable development. “In order to realize these we need to identify convergence of our interests, balance our needs, aspirations, security concerns and opportunities” said the Prime-Minister.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka Signs Agreement to Sell 80% Hambantota Port Stake to China

Sri Lanka signed an agreement in principle on December 8 to sell at least 80 percent of its deep-water port at Hambantota to the Chinese state-backed firm called China Merchants Port Holdings Co. Ltd. The firm will pay $1.1 billion for its shares in the port and adjoining land in Hambantota district and the remaining 20 percent of stake will be owned by Sri Lanka's port authority. The initiative followed after Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe made an offer during his last visit to China in April to swap equity in Sri Lankan infrastructure projects against some of the $8 billion debt it owes to China. The deal is expected to close early January.

This Framework Agreement was signed for what the government called ‘revitalization’ of the Hambantota Port on a Private –Public Partnership (PPP) model. The debt to equity swap will be carried out as part of the government’s move to reduce its foreign debt burden. Sri Lanka plans to use this money to pay the country's expensive foreign loans. And the deal will turn the port into a Chinese investment zone. Although President Sirisena had promised an ‘Open Economy’ in his campaign promises around two years back, he had, at the same time, been clear about his plans to scrap many of the contracts between Sri Lanka and China in the infrastructure sector, citing the dangers of ‘economic imperialism’. Now this complete U-turn by his government on the same old China led infrastructure projects creates confusion and adds to suspicion.

The Hambantota project in 2010 was backed by the previous leader Mahinda Rajapaksa. Although the current government sees the project as not financially viable, China, on the other hand, sees Sri Lanka's geopolitical importance for its ambitious Maritime Silk Road. The port in Hambantota is located along an important trade route connecting the Middle East and Asia. It could be noted that China's navy has been extending its operations in the Indian Ocean as it seeks to project power westward.

Recent Trends of Diaspora Activism- A case of Malaysian Diaspora

Several political parties and NGOs in Malaysia have threatened to hold demonstrations during the visit of Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena due to commence on December 15. They are urging that the government should take into consideration the sentiments of the local Tamil population in the country on account of Sirisena’s alleged role in the killing of civilians during the Sri Lankan Civil War. Various groups have formed a ‘Johor Coalition against the Visit of the President of Sri Lanka’. This coalition would be lodging police reports in 10 stations throughout the state, as a sign of protest.

The coalition consists of 10 non-governmental organisations including the Johor Tamilar Sangam and Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf) as well as PKR, DAP, Amanah and Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM). Although the coalition is not protesting against diplomatic relations with Sri Lanka, it maintains that there are many more respectable figures from Sri Lanka that Malaysia can welcome.

Earlier in September this year, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s visit to Malaysia had also witnessed intense protest by the local Tamils for his role in war crimes. But this time the diaspora seems to be stretching its activism a bit too far, by protesting against the Head of the State of a sovereign country who is in fact committed to bring a political solution to ethnic conflict. Off late, a sense of disillusionment seems to have descended on the global Tamil diaspora due to slow pace of action in the constitution drafting process, ameliorating conditions of Tamils in northern and eastern provinces and justice for victims of war crimes. It is this discontent which is manifesting itself in the form such protests. Such actions directed against the President could attract counter reaction from the hardline Sinhala Buddhist forces at home.

Maldives

Ban Ki-Moon- Political Polarization Rising in Maldives

UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-Moon has expressed concern over the increase in political polarization in Maldives. He encouraged the government and the political parties to work towards an inclusive dialogue aimed at finding mutually acceptable solutions based on compromise, the primacy of the national interest and the preservation of democratic principles and institutions. Increased level of political polarization in the country is making dialogue between the government and political parties difficult. Major opposition parties have united to challenge President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom’s alleged concentration of power. The President is not on the same page with his own step brother and former President Moumoon Abdul Gayoom, causing a vertical split within Progress Party of Maldives (PPM). This has consequently led to a vicious cycle of allegations and counter allegations, rendering the political atmosphere unsuitable for constructive political engagements.