Fortnightly Review & Analysis - Neighbourhood Studies (Vol 1 Issue X)

(November 01-15, 2016)

Pakistan

Panama Case gets Murkier

The Supreme Court hearings in the Panama Papers case took an interesting turn after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s family submitted a letter from a Qatari prince revealing that funds for the London apartments owned by the Sharif family came as part of a business settlement with the ruling Al Thani family of Qatar. The submission before the court of the money trail for the controversial apartments is not likely to satisfy the opposition which is convinced that Nawaz Sharif has been trapped by the Panama Papers leaks. The fact that there are insinuations and allegations of corruption swirling around the LNG deal signed with Qatar in which the former accountability czar and Nawaz Sharif crony, Saif-ur-Rehman acted as a front man for the Qataris, will only muddy the political waters further.

The big question however is whether the Qatari prince letter will satisfy the Supreme Court or will the judiciary dig deeper into the various contradictory statements from members of the Sharif family regarding the ownership of the apartments. There are also reports of disquiet in the Sharif camp over the observations made by judges during the hearings. The court has made it clear that it would start the accountability process with the Prime Minister and his family and only then examine the case against others. One judge also reduced the entire case to proof of the source of funds for purchase of the apartments and the legality of such funds.

The Panama Papers case is clearly a make or break for both the Sharif’s and their opponents. If the Sharif’s are able to get off the hook, the opposition with suffer a grievous blow from which it will find it impossible to recover before the next elections. On the other hand, if Nawaz Sharif is unable to satisfy the court, his position will become untenable and a ‘judicial coup’ will become inevitable.

Suicide Attack on Sufi Shrine in Balochistan

The ‘Islamic State’ (IS) claimed responsibility for a suicide attack on the congregation at the Shah Noorani shrine in Khuzdar district of Balochistan killing over 60 people and injuring over a 100, including women and children. Although initial reports said that a teenage suicide bomber blew himself up – the IS even issued a picture of the putative bomber – subsequent investigations claim that it was a woman suicide bomber.
The standard Pakistani reaction to and narrative on the attack was that it was aimed at the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). But since Khuzdar is hundreds of kilometres away from the CPEC route, not many were willing to buy this explanation. Sunni radical and sectarian groups have traditionally seen Sufi shrines as deviation from the path of Islam and have attacked other major shrines in the past. There are also some reports that the spate of attacks in Balochistan in the last two months is the handiwork of the Afghan Taliban who are now turning against Pakistan. The spin being given is that Pakistani efforts to force the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table has riled the hardliners in the Taliban ranks, who also blame Pakistan for the death of the slain Taliban emir, Mullah Mansoor. While there are reasons to believe that there is a cleavage between the Afghan Taliban and their Pakistani controllers, the yarn of Afghan Taliban striking against Pakistan is being spun with an eye on the political changes in the US.

From Minus-one to Plus-one: Musharraf being seen as possible MQM Leader

Rumours that had been doing rounds for some months seemed to be finally becoming a fact on ground when a senior leader of the Dr Farooq Sattar-led Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM)-Pakistan met the former military dictator and ethnic Mohajir, Gen Pervez Musharraf, in Dubai. The meeting followed on the heels of a statement by Ahmed Raza Kasuri, a camp-follower of Musharraf, in which he advocated a ‘plus-one’ formula (accepting Musharraf as the leader of a united MQM, i.e Farooq Sattar-led MQM-P, Mustafa Kamal-led Pakistan Sarzameen Party, and Afaq Ahmed-led MQM-H) as the next step to the ‘minus-one’ formula (ouster of Altaf Husain as the supreme leader of the party). Predictably, not only the MQM-London which continues to swear by Altaf Husain, but also Sattar and Kamal, rejected any possibility of a political consolidation of the various MQM factions under Musharraf’s leadership. For his part, Musharraf who heads his own ‘tonga’ party (i.e. a party whose total members can fit on a horse-drawn carriage) called All Pakistan Mulsim League, has expressed his readiness to head a united MQM. According to Musharraf, his stature and his popularity would benefit the MQM.

Although all the factions are continuing to play hard to get on the Musharraf issue, the grapevine is that the military establishment is trying to twist arms and push the factions in yet another effort of political engineering in Karachi. Analysts believe that a divided MQM would not be in the interest of the establishment as it would give the other big parties a look in on Karachi. With around 25 National Assembly seats up for grabs in urban Sindh, which in the event of a split verdict in 2018 will hold the balance of power, the establishment would like to have a firmer control over Karachi/Hyderabad politics through a pro-establishment party, a role that MQM has always been ready to play since its emergence in the mid 1980’s. It is also being said that by kowtowing to the game-plan of the establishment, the MQM leaders in Pakistan, who are currently out in the cold, will be able to re-ingratiate themselves with the military and provide succour to their cadres as well as regain political relevance.

Spy Games even as LoC Ceasefire Violations go up the Escalation Ladder

Expulsion of a Pakistan High Commission staffer in Delhi on charges of spying and the retaliatory expulsion of an Indian High Commission staffer has been followed by withdrawal of half a dozen diplomats and staffers by both countries. After names of around four Pakistan High Commission officials who were involved with the expelled spy were revealed in the Indian press, the Pakistanis went a step further and not only openly accused eight Indian High Commission officials of spying and encouraging terrorism but also posted their pictures on TV and newspapers, making their stay in Pakistan impossible. India has withdrawn six officials, including diplomats, and there are reports that the diplomatic spat would worsen with a major pruning of High Commission staff in both countries and even withdrawal of High Commissioners, thereby downgrading relations.

Meanwhile, the ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border have intensified since the Uri terror attack and the surgical strikes against terror camps in late September. The Pakistanis claim that civilians are being targeted by the India’s ‘unprovoked’ firing and around 25 people have been killed, dozens of schools and many more houses have been destroyed. According to the Pakistanis, India has further escalated the violations by using light and heavy artillery in addition to mortar shelling and machine gun firing. Although the Pakistanis have been denying Indian claims of casualties of Pakistan army personnel, they were forced to accept the death of seven army men in Indian firing on November 14^th. The Pakistanis have been summoning the Indian High Commissioner and his deputy virtually every second day to protest the ceasefire violations. They have also briefed foreign ambassadors, including the P-5 countries, on the situation along the LoC.

CPEC Operationalised

The much-hyped CPEC was opened for trade with over a 100 containers coming through the Kunjerab pass into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and then travelling to Gwadar port for being loaded on to ships for export to destinations in South Asia, Middle East and Africa. While the Pakistanis went into raptures on the inauguration of the trade through Gwadar, the first shipment was more of a pilot project than the commencement of regular trade. The road and rail network is still not ready for the route to become fully operational. Incidentally, Gwadar port has been inaugurated a number of times in the past and was even used for some shipments. But without the development of necessary linkages upcountry the port will remain underutilised and will not be economically viable. Even after these facilities and networks are developed, there are question marks over how much of Chinese trade will be diverted to this route and whether that trade flow will justify the costs being incurred on the entire CPEC program.

Afghanistan

Political Crisis amidst a worsening War Situation

Even as the Taliban continue with their terror attacks, a major political crisis is confronting the government in Kabul with Parliament expressing no-confidence in a number of ministers and removing them from office. Around 17 ministers are facing a vote of confidence in Parliament and five, including the foreign minister Salahuddin Rabbani, and the education, transport and public works ministers, have already been dismissed by the Parliament on charges of poor performance. The only ministers to survive so far the purge by Parliament are the finance, justice and urban development ministers. Despite their serious differences, both President Ashraf Ghani and the Chief Executive Dr Abdullah Abdullah have urged Parliament to not plunge the government into a crisis, but to no avail. As a result the President has decided to challenge the Parliament’s decision in the Supreme Court and in the meantime asked the sacked ministers to stay in their posts. Even if the Supreme Court was to over-turn the Parliament’s decision and its power to sack ministers, it could only add to the political turmoil instead of solving it.

Taliban Reject Peace Talks, Launch Attacks on Coalition Targets

With an estimated 45000 men fighting on ground on the side of the Taliban against the Afghan security forces, the Taliban appear confident that they are on the ascendant against the Afghan government and have neither any reason nor any compulsion to enter into any sort of negotiations with the government in Kabul. Not surprisingly, the Taliban have not just rejected a proposed Islamic scholars’ conference as a Western plot to undermine and de-legitimise their ‘jihad’, but have also informed the Pakistanis that, for now at least, they aren’t ready to enter into any dialogue with the Afghan government. The Taliban delegation which visited Pakistan has reportedly conveyed this message to the Pakistanis. According to analysts, the military wing of the Taliban is not ready for any sort of compromise and the political wing cannot afford to fall foul of those fighting on ground.

Apart from numerous other attacks, the Taliban caught international attention by mounting two high-profile terror attacks in the second week of November. The first attack was a suicide truck bomb that was rammed into the wall of German consulate in the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif. Although there were no casualties of any German diplomats, around half a dozen civilians were killed in the attack. The second attack was even more audacious and was carried out inside the Bagram airbase killing four Americans and wounding 17 other people. The human bomb was apparently a labourer who detonated the bomb attached to his body.

Nepal

Indian President visits Nepal

President Pranab Mukherjee visited Nepal (Nov. 2-4, 2016) at the invitation of the Nepalese President Smt. Bidya Devi Bhandari. The Nepal’s government accorded high priority to this Presidential visit that took place after a gap of 18 years. During his meeting with the President of Nepal, President Mukherjee congratulated the President and the people of Nepal for promulgating a new Constitution. The two Presidents shared that “India and Nepal relations are historical and stand on a solid foundation of common culture, civilisational bonds and close linkages at people’s level”.
The Indian President held high-level political dialogues with Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and several other leaders of major political parties. The three-day visit was described as a “mission of friendship” which has provided a new dynamism to ‘our common cooperative endeavours’ Besides visiting Kathmandu, President Mukherjee also visited Pokhara and Janakpur where he received several Madhesi leaders as well as key figures from other political parties. He also offered prayers at the Janaki temple. At Pokhara, President Mukherjee commended the distinguished role played by the Gorkha regiment in the Indian Army. He appreciated Nepal’s effort to have an inclusive constitution which shall address the concerns of all stake-holders.

Analysts believe that PM Dahal’s visit quickly followed by that of the Indian President should go a long way in substantially repairing the damages to bilateral relations caused during the rule of K P Sharma Oli. It is however, argued that a lot still needs to be done on both ends to take the relationship forward. One key area that needs serious address in New Delhi is the requirement of time-bound delivery on various projects.

Supreme Court to Hear Cases against Karki

The Supreme Court of Nepal is set to hear all cases against Lok Man Singh Karki, the suspended Chief of the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority on December 01, 2016. This was decided by a full bench of the court hearing the writ petition filed by Advocate Om Prakash Aryal. There are all together 5 cases against Karki and his aides involved in obstructing the court officials in the course of their duty must appear before court in person within seven days. It may be recalled that around 150 lawmakers from the CPN (Maoist Centre) and CPN-United Maoist-Leninist (UML) on October 19, had filed an impeachment motion against Karki at the Parliament Secretariat. The judgement in the case is expected to have major political fall out that could even affect the continuation of the current political coalition.

“Gathabandhan” gives 15 more Days to the Government

Meanwhile, the‘Gatha-bandhan’ of Madhesi and Janjati parties which is leading the campaign for constitutional amendments slightly eased the pressure on PM Dahal by agreeing to extend their dead-line by 15 days for the Government to bring in the required amendment. The Gatha-bandan coordinator, Upendra Yadav however, warned that the amendment proposal “must be acceptable to all the agitating parties”. He said, “It’s meaningless to register an amendment proposal sans consensus. The proposal should be acceptable to all of us”.

The Dahal government, which had reportedly given some assurance on this count during his recent visit to New Delhi, has so far not held any consultation with the Madhesi leaders on the details of the amendments. There is a lurking fear among Madhesi leaders that the government may take decision unilaterally. PM Dahal has informed the Madhesi leaders that the amendment proposal would seek to address four disputed issues of the Constitution pertaining to: Revision of federal boundaries; Citizenship; Representation in the Upper House; and Working Language in the Provinces. Leaders of the agitating parties like Terai Madhes Sadbhawana Party Chairperson Mahanta Thakur are still in the dark. But Interlocutors from the Madhesi parties said that the Prime Minister had informally proposed the creation of another province in western Tarai from Nawalparasi to Bardiya, while offering to end the dispute over five Tarai districts in the east and west through a Commission.

Bangladesh

Daud Merchant Deported to India

According to sources, as part of Bangladesh’s continuing commitment to providing security cooperation to India, Daud Merchant, an Indian fugitive criminal was recently deported to India from Bangladesh. The process of handing him over to the Indian authorities was completed along the India Bangladesh border in the presence of Border Security Force (BSF). The entire operation was conducted in very close cooperation and coordination by the two governments. Interpol’s assistance was also taken. Merchant’s deportation has been termed as a prize catch. He was convicted in the 1997 murder case of a prominent industrialist and a music baron of Mumbai and was sentenced for life in 2002. He jumped parole in 2009 and went absconding when released to meet his family.

‘Sampriti’: Bangladesh-India Joint Military Exercise

The 7th edition of Bangladesh-India joint military exercise, ‘Sampriti” is being held in Tangail near Dhaka from 5-18, November. The exercise will include counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations. Army personnel from both the countries will familiarise with each other’s organizational structure & tactical drills. This exercise is an extremely important component of bilateral defence cooperation between both the nations. The first exercise of this series was conducted in 2010 at Jorhat in Assam and has been continuing every year alternately in India and Bangladesh..

Brahmanbaria Burning: A severe Blow to Communal Harmony

In what is being described as one of the worst communal incident in recent years, hundreds of houses of Hindus and nearly 18 temples were destroyed in Nasirnagar, Brahmanbaria near Dhaka in a series of incidents that began on October 30, 2016 after appearance of a mischievous Face Book post depicting the image of Lord Shiva on top of the Great Mosque at Mecca. In a quick response, large contingent of security forces was deployed by the administration. Reportedly, 40 persons have been arrested for participating and instigating the incident. According to a media report, the ruling Awami League has placed under suspension ¾th of its local leaders for their involvement in the incident.

According to the local community leaders, the incident in Brahmanbaria was deliberate and aimed at grabbing the lands of the minority community. Ahle Sunnat, Touhidi Janata has been the main organization behind these attacks. A ten member delegation of Hindu-Boudhha-Christian Oikhya Parishad visited the affected areas of Nasirnagar. Authorities have declared Tk 1 lakh reward for information leading to the capture of the culprits. The incident has sparked wide spread condemnation in Bangladesh. Government of India, taking a serious note of the wanton attack on the minority Hindu community, according to media reports, has asked the High Commissioner in Dhaka to take up the matter with the authorities at the highest level.

Sri Lanka

Joint Working Group to Address Fishermen Issue

The External Affairs Ministry in New Delhi has confirmed that India and Sri Lanka have agreed to set up a Joint Working Group on Fisheries (JWG) to address all aspects of the contentious issue of fishermen from Tamil Nadu being arrested at sea by Sri Lanka. It has also been agreed to establish a hotline between the Coast Guards of the two countries to address this long-standing issue. This decision was reached during talks between External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera in New Delhi on November 5. It came three days after fishermen of both countries failed to reach an agreement on ending fishing in Sri Lankan waters by Indian fishermen. The JWG would meet every three months while the Ministers of Fisheries on both sides would meet every six months beginning January 2017 along with Coast Guard and Naval representatives to discuss the protracted issue. This could serve as a possible mechanism to help find a permanent solution to the fishermen issues which appears to have reached an impasse.

Fishermen from Jaffna have been demanding an end to “bottom trawling”, a practice that depletes the ocean’s resources. Keeping this demand and environmental safety concern in mind, terms of reference of the JWG includes “expediting the transition towards ending the practice of bottom trawling at the earliest”, as well as framing procedures for returning fishermen arrested by both sides, and the possibility of joint patrolling. However, the issue of their seized boats remains unresolved, and has been an emotive issue in Tamil Nadu, with the State government writing to the Centre on several occasions to negotiate for their release.

G.L. Peiris to Launch New Political Front

Mahinda Rajapaksa’s (MR) close aid and former Foreign Minister Prof. G.L. Peiris has decided to launch a new political front named “Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna,” of which he himself would be the chairman. Following this development, Prof Peiris has been ousted from Sri Lankan Freedom Party (SLFP). The nature and purpose of formation of this political front is not clear yet. It is being speculated that the Joint Opposition (JO) could eventually merge with the new political outfit or Peiris might invite MR to lead this new political organisation. Significantly, the party is to be launched on November 18, which is MR’s birthday. If MR decides to join or even support it from outside, it will certainly affect strength of SLFP. But at this stage it seems unlikely that MR would break away from his parent party in which retains huge support base. Some reports also suggest that JO as a political block doesn’t want to break away from SLFP, yet many of its members are keen to consider joining this party in future. This move has, none the less, added to the complexities of current political situation in Sri Lanka. The extent to which it affects the political equations in the country would become evident in times to come.

Maldives

Senior Gayoom Withdraws Support to President

Former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom publicly withdrew support for his half-brother and incumbent president, Abdulla Yameen following a standoff between his supporters and the riot police at the ruling party headquarters on November 11. Even head of the Jumhooree Party (JP) Gasim Ibrahim backed Gayoom’s decision. This announcement further intensifies the political crisis in Maldives.

President Yameen appears to have out manoeuvred the senior Gayoom by winning Supreme Court endorsement of a lower court ruling that had handed him control of the PPM. The elections commission also indicated that it recognizes the faction led by President Abdulla Yameen as the legitimate PPM over a rival faction led by the ruling party’s elected president. This crisis has led in isolation of Yameen government and has attested a perception that independent institutions like Election Commission are politically controlled.

India greets Maldives on Republic Day of Maldives

Extending his greetings to the government and the people on the occasion of Republic Day of Maldives, President of India Dr. Pranab Mukherjee, in his message to Maldives President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, said both countries have traditionally enjoyed extremely close and friendly ties, anchored in shared historical and socio-cultural bonds. He further pointed out that there was enormous potential for further expanding and diversifying of traditional ties of friendship and cooperation.