Fortnightly Review & Analysis – Indo-Pacific, Japan and East Asia (Vol 1 Issue VI)

(September 1-15, 2016)

India – Vietnam

Prime Minister Modi concluded his two days visit to Vietnam on 02, 03 September 2016. In changing regional and global scenario, the India-Vietnam partnership is of strategic importance in the Asia Pacific Century. The much awaited visit from Indian Prime Minister underscores the fact that India is strongly emphasizing on strengthening its links with Southeast Asian countries under its ‘Act East’ policy. Vietnam also reciprocated its strong desire to reinforce its cooperation with the South Asian power and that is manifested from the high profile visits initiated by Vietnam to Delhi since last decade. The stimulus for the visit was defence cooperation. India has announced a new 500 million USD defence line of credit for Vietnam to facilitate deeper defence cooperation.

During their bilateral talks Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Xuan Phuc agreed to tap the growing economic opportunities in the region. Twelve MoU’s were signed during this visit covering the significant sectors like IT, Space, Defence, health, mutual recognition of standards and cyber security. To facilitate person to person interaction, a MoU on cooperation between Vietnam Academy of Social Science and Indian Council of World Affairs was signed. Based on strong bilateral relations, the two sides recently upgraded their relationship from “strategic partnership” to “comprehensive strategic partnership”. Vietnam had earlier signed Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Russia and China.

During the last leg of his visit PM Modi met the Communist Party General Secretary Ngyen Phu Trong, who appreciated India’s stance on the South China Sea issue and admired India’s support to freedom of navigation, over-flight and unimpeded commerce in the disputed region. Since 1990, the trajectory of cooperation between India and Vietnam is moving upwards and both the countries have emerged as significant partners in making of the ‘Asia-Pacific century’. However, in economic cooperation, the bilateral trade is still minimal, which is only about 1.22 percent of India’s total trade; this has scope to rise in near future. Both the countries are placing greater emphasis on generation of renewable energy which will facilitate new opportunities in areas of solar, wind, hydro, bio-fuel and even in the development of photo-voltaic cells.

ASEAN

14^th India-ASEAN Summit

The 14th India-ASEAN Summit chaired by Prime Minister Modi concluded on September 08th, 2016 at Vientiane, Lao PDR. The Summit, chaired by Prime Minister Modi concluded with greater emphasis on strategic partnership encompassing security, economic and socio-cultural spheres. PM Modi expressed the importance of ASEAN and its centrality for his ‘Act East Policy’. During this Summit, India strongly highlighted the growing threats to society such as radicalization and spread of extreme violence. He appealed to the ASEAN to take concrete steps to enhance co-operation in cyber security, de-radicalization and counter-terrorism. Recognising terrorism as a significant threat to peace and stability in the region, India and the 10-member ASEAN made a strong commitment to combat terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. The countries also agreed to cooperate towards addressing traditional and non-traditional security challenges, including in areas of de-radicalization and prevention of violent extremism. While highlighting the economic optimism for India-ASEAN engagements, the Prime Minister emphasized on digital connectivity between India and Southeast Asia. He expressed its commitment to the Master Plan on ASEAN connectivity under the India- ASEAN ‘Plan of Action (2016-20)’ of which 54 activities have been already implemented by India. In this direction, the Prime Minister proposed a Joint Task Force on connectivity to work on extension of India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway to Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. India has already emphasized its commitment to strengthen developmental engagement comprehensively and proposed to enhance India-ASEAN fund with an additional grant of 50 million USD.

Bilateral Meetings at the sidelines of 14^th India-ASEAN Summit at Laos

India reached out to most of the Southeast Asian countries to strengthen its bilateral relations with these countries. The series of bilateral meetings on the sideline of 14th India-ASEAN Summit reflects the ASEAN’s centrality for the success of India’s ‘Act East’ Policy. In his first bilateral summit meeting he met South Korean President Park Geun-hye, when both the leaders discussed various avenues to strengthen their strategic partnership which was established last year during PM Modi’s visit to South Korea. India and South Korea readily agreed to strengthen their cooperation in the field of counter-terrorism and maritime security. Along with security cooperation, both the leaders also extensively discussed the avenues to improve India-South Korea comprehensive economic partnership agreement. South Korea also discussed the implementation plan to utilize the 10 billion USD package for infrastructure development in India as announced by South Korea last year.

In a second bilateral meeting, PM Modi met the State Counsellor and Foreign Minister of Myanmar Aung San Suu Kyi who was recently elected with massive victory in elections. India has readily extended its willingness to help Myanmar by all possible means for the stability and development of Myanmar. PM Modi also extended invitation to Ms Syu Kyi to attend BRICS-BIMSTEC Outreach Summit at Goa this year. Counsellor Suu Kyi briefed PM Modi about the progress in the peace and reconciliation process in Myanmar. Both leaders assessed India-Myanmar security cooperation in the backdrop of emerging threats from certain insurgent groups of Northeastern states launching their attacks from the soil of Myanmar. In August, when Minister of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj had called on President U Htin Kyaw and Counsellor Suu Kyi, Myanmar had assured India that it will not allow insurgent groups to use its territory against India. PM Modi and Counsellor Suu Kyi discussed about boosting bilateral cooperation in several areas like dairy farming, animal husbandry and agriculture, besides cooperation in areas of their shared Buddhist heritage. Cooperation in disaster management was one of the important issues of the Summit given that several countries in South Asia continue to face natural disasters.

28 – 29^th ASEAN Summit and 11^th East Asia Summit

This Summit provided the platform for India’s greater role in the region in accordance with India’s Act East policy. The two Summits led to a total of 57 outcome documents including the extensive principal statement made by the chair. The regional grouping has many solid achievements to its credit in its nearly 50-year existence. It continues to register success, albeit gradually, in strengthening regional integration and deepening links, both within its 10 member states and with a wider circle of dialogue partners, including China and India. The recent Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) verdict on South China Sea, China’s rejection of the verdict and its assertive behaviour in an around the region was a cause of concern during the Summit; it has further stretched the unity of ASEAN as a community.

The PCA verdict and its implications were extensively discussed by the 18 member states of the 11^th East Asia Summit (EAS) which includes the US and Russia. However, as expected, the outcome highlighted the Chinese diplomatic influence over the group as compared to the US. However, as for the deliberations are concerned, the EAS meeting deliberated, in a routine manner, upon its core six priorities – energy, education, finance, global health, environment, disaster management and ASEAN connectivity. Though the Korean Peninsula issue and issues like terrorism and economic integration was discussed, but the overall impression was that without greater unity among ASEAN nations and a stronger ASEAN-US rapport, the EAS may not be in a situation to play a decisive role in the future.

The overall assessment of the situation in East Asia was that geopolitics dominated the agenda. Having recognised this reality, India is proactively engaged in geo-political engagements, focusing its efforts to enhance synergy with the ASEAN and other like-minded partners like the US, Japan, South Korea and Australia. In addition, it continues to strive for stronger bilateral ties with several ASEAN nations like Vietnam, Myanmar, Singapore and Thailand - this list must also include Indonesia. India’s efforts will succeed more if India steps up the pace of engagements and ASEAN governments and business leaders match their words with action.