Fortnightly Review & Analysis - USA, EU and Eurasia (Vol 1 Issue IV)

(August 1 - 15, 2016)

USA

Donald Trump's campaign underwent a major staff shake-up with less than three months to Election Day. Donald Trump added two new officials to top posts overseeing his struggling campaign and signaling a shift toward campaigning as an outsider who has come with refreshing ideas – a move it is hoped would see his ratings go up.

Trump has named Steve Bannon, the executive chairman of Breitbart News and a former investment banker, to the post of chief executive and promoted Kellyanne Conway, a senior adviser and pollster to his campaign, to the position of campaign manager.

An article in Bloomberg in October last year described Mr Bannon as "the most dangerous political operative in America" - a phrase Mr Trump's own website repeated while announcing his appointment. Bannon will temporarily step down from Breitbart to work on the campaign full time and is expected to lead a highly aggressive strategy.

Paul Manafort, who has since resigned, was initially retained as campaign chairman, but with curtailed powers, which in effect amounted to a demotion. He had come under adverse public and media scrutiny for his links with the former Russian backed Ukrainian Government of Yanukovych, a charge that he has denied. But The New York Times reported finding ledgers pledging $12.7m (£9.8m) in undisclosed cash payments to Mr Manafort between 2007 and 2012.

"I have never received a single 'off-the-books cash payment,'" Paul Manafort said in a statement. "The simplest answer is the truth: I am a campaign professional. It is well known that I do work in the United States and have done work on overseas campaigns as well. I have never received a single 'off-the-books cash payment' as falsely 'reported' by the New York Times," the statement by Manafort claimed.

Hillary Clinton's campaign has called for Mr Trump's team to disclose any pro-Russia links. Pressure has also been built on Trump to disclose his own tax returns. So the battle for the White House is getting murky with charges flying back and forth.

Russia

Ukraine:

There has been an escalating war of words between Ukraine and Russia over the past fortnight signaling a surge in tensions on the border between the two countries. There are fears that should current trends continue, this ‘cold’ conflict might not stay cold for much longer. Ukraine's president put his army on combat alert on August 11 along the country's borders with Crimea and separatist rebels in the east as a war of words between Russia and Ukraine threatened to heat up the largely frozen conflict over the Black Sea peninsula.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko issued the order after Moscow accused his country of sending in "saboteurs" to carry out attacks in Crimea against Russian soldiers and other personnel. Russian President Vladimir Putin upped the ante on the morning of August 11 when he directly accused the Ukrainian government of plotting attacks and called a meeting of the country's top brass to discuss boosting security in Crimea following reports of foiled attacks by Ukraine.

Iran:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced last week that Russian fighter jets are using the Hamedan air base with Iran’s approval in support of what he called “counter-terrorism” operations in Syria. Russia’s defense ministry said it started using the base to attack Islamic State (IS) positions in northern and eastern Syria. The defense ministry said the attacks also targeted Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, the militant group formerly known as the al-Nusra Front.

According to a Carnegie Moscow report, “Russia’s recent use of an Iranian air base to bomb targets across Syria marks a striking new development in the history of Russian-Iranian relations. Throughout the nineteenth and much of the twentieth centuries, Iran had unsuccessfully resisted Russian designs to control its land and influence its politics” as it did not want to become a pawn of the big powers but this new move signals a shift in Iranian policy as it seems to welcome Russia as a strategic partner in the new power game.

As Moscow reenters the Middle East after a quarter-century break, it understands the importance of Iran, one of the most important countries along Russia’s southern periphery. Russia is fully ready to engage with Iran on a wide range of bilateral, regional, and international issues involving trade, energy, and security. Yet although the two countries share many goals and cooperation looks promising, the relationship is still relatively fragile and policy disagreements between them must be handled deftly.

But later Iran annulled permission for Russian planes to fly its bombing raids into Syria from an Iranian base, saying that the Kremlin had been unacceptably public and arrogant about the privilege. This reflects deep seated and long standing suspicions about Russian intentions despite the recent tactical alliance over Syria.

Central Asian Republics

I. C5+1 Ministerial

The foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan met in Washington on the 3^rd of August, 2016, with the US Secretary of State John Kerry to discuss cooperation on the challenges of environmental protection, economic prosperity, climate change and global security in the Central Asian region. It was the second meeting of the C5+1 at the ministerial level after the first which took place last November in the city of Samarkand.

At the meeting in Washington, Secretary Kerry referred to the C5+1 Group as a “vital platform for action designed to protect our citizens, build shared prosperity and strengthen the diplomatic ties between us” and hoped to “make further progress through a new regional approach built around initiatives on counterterrorism, trade and investment, economic development and clean energy.”

The partner countries outlined five projects which the C5+1 has agreed to launch, and the United States plans to support with $15 million in aid (pending Congressional notification). The first is a dialogue within the Global Counterterrorism Forum to assist Central Asian states in combating radicalization to violence and reducing the threat posed by foreign terrorist fighters. The second seeks to make it easier for businesses in Central Asia to increase exports and enter new markets. A third project centers on improving the transportation and logistics sectors that are essential to a healthy and dynamic marketplace. The fourth and fifth, Secretary Kerry said, are aimed at assisting the five Central Asia countries to develop cleaner renewable energy sources to power the future, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

It was emphasized that cooperation in each of these key areas is of utmost importance, but dialogue with the group is expected continue in other areas of concern as well which include the need for transparency and accountability in governance and the importance of human rights, such as freedom of religion, expression, and association, among others.

All measures discussed at the Ministerial are directed towards a common goal: to establish the Central Asian region as one that is secure, prosperous and stable. And each measure, according to Secretary Kerry, is based on a fundamental principle of U.S. foreign policy, “that we support without hesitation the sovereignty, the territorial integrity and the independence of each Central Asian state.” Additionally, the joint statement for the Ministerial released on the eve of the celebrations of the 25^th anniversary of independence of the Central Asian states reaffirmed mutual abiding respect for the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of each country, and declared the intention of the countries to:

• Enhance the C5+1 diplomatic platform further as a mechanism for dialogue and joint action through future ministerial meetings devoted to the exchange of views on issues of common interest, through implementation of mutually-agreed projects, and future C5+1 events;
• Implement trade facilitation measures and advance development of transportation corridors across the region to increase access to markets, improve productivity and efficiency of transport, and strengthen competitiveness in the region and in international markets;
• Strengthen logistics sectors across Central Asia to facilitate regional trade and promote investment potential;
• Enhance the region’s favorable business climate to attract foreign direct investment and facilitate local entrepreneurship, and broaden and strengthen business and investment contacts among the Central Asian countries and the United States;
• Contribute to the development of the region’s renewable energy resources;
• Support regional, national, and local-level planning and implementation of the measures to prepare for and adapt to the impact of climate change;
• Enhance cooperation to prevent and counter transboundary threats and challenges such as terrorism, and the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction, illicit drugs and human beings;
• Contribute to global and regional efforts on nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction, including by respecting the provisions of the Treaty on a Nuclear-Weapons-Free Zone in Central Asia and pursuing entry into force of the Treaty’s Protocol;
• Increase dialogue on threats from foreign terrorist fighters, and exchange best practices on countering terrorism and preventing radicalization to violence;
• Continue support to Afghanistan and its development as an independent, peaceful, thriving state, recognizing that the situation in Afghanistan remains an important factor in security and stability of the entire region;
• Further develop cooperation in the humanitarian sphere and more extensive people-to-people ties and encourage wider educational, cultural, and business exchanges;
• Protect human rights, develop democratic institutions and practices, and strengthen civil society through respect for recognized norms, and principles of international law, including the United Nations Charter, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the Declaration on Principles of International Law, the Helsinki Final Act of the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe;
• Align the projects and dialogues with other international partner C5 formats on issues of common interest

The concluding sentiment at the Ministerial was that of hope and ambition for a common effort to meeting “the shared aims” and “form the foundation of a lasting partnership between the United States” and the Central Asian countries.

II. Eurasian Intergovernmental Council Meeting

The Prime Ministers of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan met in Sochi from the 11^th-12^th of August 2016 for the fourth time at the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council meeting to discuss several issues, the most important being the draft treaty on the EAEU Customs Code, which has been jointly prepared by the public authorities and businesses of the five Eurasian Union countries. Upon the adoption of this document, entrepreneurs will operate according to a single set of rules throughout the proposed common area. Additionally, it is believed that the union would simplify customs formalities, reduce the time taken for completing customs procedures and reduce to a minimum the communication with government officials, thus improving the business climate in the EAEU countries.

The Prime Ministers discussed the formation of common markets, particularly, common medicine, and oil and gas markets, and an agreement on a common capital market. This document, which was adopted a few days prior to the meet at Sochi, at a Eurasian Economic Commission meeting in Moscow, will allow lifting foreign exchange restrictions on a number of banking transactions. This applies to opening bank accounts, raising and disbursing loans, paying for goods and services, purchasing real estate and more. The agreement will come into force in Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia in late 2017 - early 2018 and in Belarus in 2020.

The next Intergovernmental Commission meeting is proposed to take place in the coming autumn in Minsk.

III. Kazakhstan Signs the Paris Climate Change Agreement

The Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan Erlan Idrissov signed the Paris Climate Change Agreement, which was adopted at the December COP21 summit, on August 2nd 2016 at the UN Headquarters in New York. Most UN member states signed the agreement in April; Idrissov said “technicalities” delayed his country’s signing. The document will enter into force after the majority of countries responsible for global greenhouse gas emissions sign it. “The Paris Agreement is a global consensus document reflecting the world’s will to prevent climate change and to fight together against environmental degradation,” Idrissov said at the signing.

According to the press service of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, addressing global climate change is a key condition for ensuring sustainable development, eliminating poverty and achieving socio-economic well-being for all countries. The signing of the agreement comes at a time as Kazakhstan prepares to host EXPO 2017, which will focus on sustainable energy for the future.

Post the signing, Idrissov met with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who congratulated Kazakhstan on its accession to such an important international document, as well as on the country’s recent election as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. They also discussed the fight against terrorism and violent extremism, as well as sustainable development and peace-building.

Idrissov reiterated to the Secretary General Kazakhstan’s consistent support of international efforts to strengthen global security through the implementation of the UN Secretary-General’s Plan of Action to Prevent Violent Extremism, and the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy, both at the regional and national levels. He also extended his gratitude to the Secretary General for his support to the Kazakh President’s initiative to convene the “Religions for Peace” High-Level Conversation on May 6 as part of the General Assembly.

Later in the day, Idrissov also took part in the UN Security Council open debates on children and armed conflict. In his statement, Idrissov outlined Kazakhstan’s principled position on the international problem and noted contributions made by his country to address the challenge particularly in Afghanistan, where Kazakhstan has delivered humanitarian assistance programmes focused on providing access to education and health care.