Fortnightly Review & Analysis - Neighbourhood Studies (Vol 1 Issue III)

(July 16-31, 2016)

Pakistan

‘Yesterday Once More’ on Kashmir

In the aftermath of the killing of the Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist Burhan Wani, a virtual war of words has broken out between India and Pakistan, deteriorating an already tense state of relations between the two countries. Among the first decisions Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took after his return from his heart surgery was to declare that a ‘black day’ would be observed all over Pakistan on 19^th July to express solidarity with the Indian Kashmiris. Ironically, 19^th July is generally observed in Pakistan as ‘Accession to Pakistan’ day. Realising the faux pas, the ‘black day’ was shifted to 20^th July.

Part of the grandstanding in Pakistan was done with an eye on the ‘elections’ in the part of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) euphemistically called ‘Azad Jammu and Kashmir’. The election rhetoric saw fiery anti-India speeches by Bilawal Zardari, leader of the so-called liberal party, PPP, who’s verbal missiles were aimed at both the Indian Prime Minister and his Pakistani counterpart. Other political players also ratcheted up the anti-Indian rhetoric during the election campaign. But the election results were along predicted lines – the ruling party in Islamabad, PMLN, swept the polls in PoK winning 32 of the 41 directly elected seats. Subsequently, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced Farooq Haider as the new ‘Prime Minister’ of the Pakistan occupied territory.

After the election results, Nawaz Sharif visited Muzaffarabad where while addressing a public rally, he declared that he awaits the day when Kashmir will become Pakistan. There was a stinging reply to this comment by the Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj who declared that this delusional dream on Nawaz Sharif will never become a reality because India will never allow Kashmir to become a haven for terrorists. Pakistan, meanwhile, has reverted to the pattern of the early 1990s. It has launched a shrill and hysterical campaign to draw international attention to Kashmir and has also allowed notorious terrorist group heads to openly operate inside Pakistan, thereby violating its own undertaking to not allow any territory under its control to be used for terrorist activity against India.

Change of Guard in Sindh amid tensions with Army

Amidst a stand-off between the PPP-led government of Sindh and the military establishment over the issue of extending the mandate of the Pakistan Rangers to operate in Karachi and also allowing them to carry out their operations in interior Sindh, the PPP decided to replace the octogenarian Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah with a much younger man, Stanford University graduate Murad Ali Shah. Although speculation was rife that the new Chief Minister will prove to be a much tougher customer to deal with for the Army, in all likelihood, the PPP will throw in the towel after a show of defiance. This is by now a set pattern of behaviour of Asif Zardari, who makes a show of digging in his heels before meekly surrendering without getting anything at all for all display of defiance. In fact chances are that the PPP will also give in to the demand of the Rangers to extend their campaign against corruption and terrorism beyond Karachi into Interior Sindh.

Civil-Military tensions over CPEC

Reports in the Pakistani media suggest that the army has once again started pressuring the Nawaz Sharif government to give it a central role in the planning and execution of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. While the army has been pitching for an institutionalised role in CPEC even earlier, they have now fired their guns from Chinese shoulders by letting it be known that the Chinese were keen that the government of Pakistan give a formal role to the army in the execution of the projects. The government has however rejected any such formal role for the army, except in securing the projects and personnel. After the Chinese ambassador told journalists that China was satisfied with the pace at which the projects were progressing, the army’s push to grab control of CPEC from the civilian government seemed to have stalled, for now at least. Meanwhile, eyebrows were raised when in response to demands by Senators that details of all CPEC projects be made public, the Planning Minister and CPEC pointman in the government of Pakistan, Ahsan Iqbal, declared that the agreements on the projects are confidential and couldn’t be made public.

Imran Khan once again in agitation mode

Imran Khan is once again all set to take the agitation route against the Nawaz Sharif government from August 7, this time over the issue of an inquiry into the Sharif family’s assets and companies which have been revealed in the Panama Papers scandal. Although Imran Khan has tried to work with other opposition parties to rustle up the numbers and pressure to force the government to agree to an inquiry into the PM and his family’s assets, his agitation programme has been announced without taking the other opposition parties on board. Most of the opposition parties were in any case chary of joining Imran Khan’s latest dharna plan. While this suits Imran as he didn’t want to be identified too closely with the PPP and other parties which have a taint of corruption around them, his ‘solo-flight’ has raised questions and doubts on how much street pressure Imran he will manage to build given that his own party is reeling under dissension and disarray after its rout in the so called elections in PoK. Meanwhile, the cleric Tahirul Qadri has also announced his own agitation plan on the issue of Islamic justice for the victims of police firing on his Lahore headquarters in 2014. It is as yet not clear whether Qadri and Imran will once again agitate side by side or separately. For now at least the government doesn’t seem jittery but with the issue of a new army chief looming on the horizon and whispers that the incumbent army chief might get an extension, the possibility that the dirty tricks department of the military establishment might play a role one way or another in these agitations cannot entirely be ruled out.

Afghanistan

Recriminations & Reconciliation efforts proceed side by side

Even as Afghanistan and Pakistan tried to paper over the recent border clashes by agreeing to a High Level mechanism for coordinating border issues, President Ashraf Ghani, in an interview to a Pakistani TV channel, pulled no punches in calling ‘state to state relations with Pakistan’ the biggest problem facing his country. He said that all other threats – Taliban, Al Qaeda and other terrorists – were the result of the ‘fundamental problem’ of relations with Pakistan. President Ghani accused Pakistan of providing sanctuaries to all sorts of terror groups and said he could even give addresses of Taliban offices in Quetta. He not only decried Pakistan's quest for ‘strategic depth’ by saying that Afghanistan will never become anyone’s dependency, but also debunked the much vaunted Operation Zarb-e-Azb by saying that it was carried out to cover only the threat that confronted Pakistan and had in fact added to Afghanistan’s problems. Dismissing Pakistani allegations about India using Afghan territory to destabilise Pakistan, President Ghani said ‘not a scrap of evidence’ had been presented to him by the Pakistani generals to back their accusations. He said that no other country had a right to dictate to Afghanistan what its foreign policy should be and with whom Afghanistan should maintain what sort of relations.

Meanwhile, at the technical talks on border management between military officials of Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Afghan DGMO asked Pakistan to act against the Islamic State terrorists operating from its soil. He even named the Jamaatud Dawa/Lashkar-e-Taiba chief, Hafiz Saeed, as the head of the IS terrorists present in Afghanistan. Whether the Afghan officer indeed meant the LeT chief, or confused him with his namesake and the acknowledged IS chief in Afghanistan, Hafiz Saeed Khan (believed to have been killed in a drone strike months earlier) is not entirely clear.

The Pakistanis also organised a visit of a Taliban delegation to China in the third week of July. Ostensibly, the visit was to brief the Chinese about the current situation in Afghanistan. But the real reason is probably an attempt by Pakistan to reassure the Chinese that neither the spiralling violence in Afghanistan nor the possibility (even though remote for now) of a Taliban takeover will have any adverse effect either on China, or on the Chinese investments in Pakistan. The visit nevertheless raised the hackles of the Afghan government which told the Chinese that they should not ‘provide a platform’ to groups involved in the killing of Afghans. For their part, the Chinese have maintained a studied silence over the Taliban visit.

80 Hazaras killed in IS-claimed suicide attack on protest rally

The Islamic State terrorists in Afghanistan claimed responsibility for a suicide attack on a peaceful protest rally in Kabul in which over 80 people were killed. The protest had been organised by the Hazara community to demand a power transmission line. Although in recent weeks, government troops have been engaged in action against IS strongholds, and the IS has also been involved in clashes with the Taliban, the suicide attack in Kabul is an indication of their network and reach. There is a fear that the attack on the Hazaras could revive the sectarian – anti-Shia – tensions in Afghanistan, adding yet another layer to an already complicated security and political situation.

Nepal

PM Oli Resigns, Dahal to Become Next Prime Minister:

KP Sharma Oli, who became Prime Minister of Nepal in October 2015, resigned, on July 24, without facing no confidence motion paving the way to Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Chairman of CPN (Maoist Centre) to shortly assume the charge of next Prime Minister. Oli’s government was reduced to minority after its major coalition partner CPN-Maoist Centre led by Dahal withdrew its support to the government, on July 13.

Oli’s ten months tenure as PM was marred by a spate of controversies on various issues primarily centering around his inability to resolve the demands of the ethnic minorities including the Madhesies, Janjaties and others by amending the Constitutional provisions on demarcation of state boundaries, adequate electoral representation etc. Agitations launched by them led to several months of ‘blockade’ of essential supplies and the death of over 60 protestors.

The CPN-Maoist Centre had earlier reached an understanding with Nepali Congress and signed a 7-point agreement on forcing the government to resign. As per agreement between Dahal and NC Chairman Sher Bahadur Deuba, Dahal will lead the government for the first nine months and then hand over leadership to NC Chairman Sher Bahadur Deuba, who will head the coalition government for next nine months.

President Bidya Deve Bhandari accepted Oli’s resignation on July 24 and asked him to carry out daily administrative functions till the formation of a new government. The President, on July 25, issued an order to remove the constitutional ambiguity pertaining to electing a new Prime Minister under the Transitional Provisions of the constitution. The President Bidya Devi Bhandari, on July 25, also asked the parliament to initiate the process of forming the new government within seven days on the basis of political understanding. It is generally believed that the new government under Dahal will have 12 ministers in the cabinet from the Nepali Congress and the rest from the Maoist and other coalition partners. Intense jockeying is currently on, particularly in NC and Madheshi party circles to get included in the new ministry.

IS Threat:Security Forces on High Alert

Nepal’s security forces are on high alert after receipt of information that Islamic State might target Koshi barrage in Nepal. Indian Embassy in Kathmandu reportedly shared an intelligence report claiming IS activists planning to target the barrage across the Nepal’s largest river to cause maximum damage in both Nepal and India, particularly Bihar by breaking the 56-gate barrage.

Bangladesh

Tarique Rahman Sentenced 7 Years Imprisonment:

Bangladesh High Court, on July 27, reversed an earlier trial court verdict of acquittal to Tarique Rahman, BNP Senior Vice-Chairman and elder son of BNP Chief Khaleda Zia, and held him guilty of having committed financial crime consciously by using his political position as a shield. The High Court awarded 7 years imprisonment and fine of TK 200 million after hearing an appeal by the Anti Corruption Commission. The conviction of Tarique Rahman is a huge blow to his political ambitions as he can not run for any public office unless the Supreme Court stays or reverses the verdict of the High Court. In 2009, the Anti Corruption commission prosecuted BNP Chief Khaleda Zia’s elder son and his business associate Mamun for siphoning off Tk 204.1 million to Singapore between 2003 and 2007.

BNP Plans To Forge New Anti-Government Alliance:

The BNP is trying to forge a new anti-government alliance, keeping Islamist parties like Jamaat-e-Islami away in an attempt to forge a national unity against militancy. After the ruling Awami League rejected its call for unity because of its ties with the Jamaat, Khaleda Zia’s party has changed its position by inviting leaders of various parties outside the BNP-led 20-Party Alliance and the Awami League led 14-party Coalition. These anti-government parties are yet to respond the call for national unity. The BNP leaders think that it is an opportunity for the party to reignite anti-government movement 0by portraying recent terror attacks as the government’s failure.

Militant’s Activities:

Security agencies prevented another possible major terrorist incident by carrying out a timely raid at Kalyanpur in Dhaka, on July 26, foiling an attempt of the militants to launch another dreadful incident in the country. The law enforcing agencies raided the militants’ den killing nine militants and injuring one. One militant however, managed to escape. The nine militants killed during the drive by joint forces in Dhaka’s Kalyanpur were also educated youth, like the Gulshan attackers. All the dead were between the age group of 20 and 24.

Attacks and threats by militants to the Hindu priests and secularists continued. Three Baul singers, including two females, were hacked to death by miscreants at a Baul haunt of Ekotarpur Village in Jibannagar Upzila, on early July 17. The Baul are a group of mystic medieval singers from Bengal, including from Indian State of West Bengal, who sang lyric or heroic poetry for the nobility. Miscreants attacked them while they were asleep, chopped them with sharp weapons indiscriminately leaving them injured.

Three Hindu priests in Rangpur and Pirojpur were threatened with murder amid a spate of attacks on minorities across Bangladesh. The incident created panic among more than 100 Hindu families living in the neighbourhood. One Animesh Bhattacharjee, a priest of Shree Shree Jagonnath Temple at Barisal, received death threat, on July 27. Four Hindu priests of different temples in Pirojpur district also received death threats, on July 17. Militant Outfit of Islamic State (IS) threatened to kill 20 members of Naryanganj club. The threat call was issued through a letter, on July 18.

In view of growing activities of militants, the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, on July 25, alerted her cabinet colleagues to possible extremist attack on them and government establishments including courts anytime in August. The prime minister in a videoconference with the people from all walks of life from different divisions, on July 13, said that the government had intelligence that the extremist had planned to launch more attacks.

India- Bangladesh Relations:

Bangladesh, and India To Fight Cyber Terrorism:

Bangladesh and India are sign an agreement on joint efforts in the fight against international terrorism in cyberspace. As is known, militant/terrorist outfits extensively use the cyber space to communicate with youths and inspire them to embrace violent extremism.

Dhaka-Delhi to Amend Extradition Treaty:

Bangladesh Cabinet, on July 18, approved an amendment to the treaty between Bangladesh and India on extradition to make the extradition procedure easier, requiring only a valid warrant of arrest to extradite criminals. Earlier, under the January 2013 treaty, evidence was required to be produced for extraditing accused from the two countries. The amendment was proposed by the Indian side to ease legal complication.

Bangladesh, India Merge South Asia’s Biggest Land Port:

Bangladesh and India have merged busiest land check-post at Benapole-Petrapole, easing the movement of people and goods to take their relations a notch higher. Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Sheikh Hasina opened the new “Petrapole Integrated Check Post” (ICP) through a video call, on July 21. Chief Minister of West Bengal Mamta Banerjee joined them from Kolkata. This is the second and the largest on ICP on the India-Bangladesh border after the one in Agartala, Tripura.

Myanmar

Reconciliation Efforts-Panglong Conference to be Held in August

State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi and ethnic alliance leaders from the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) had a meeting on 17 July to find ways of building a federal union ahead of a planned Union Peace Conference in late August. The UNFC is an ethnic alliance of non-signatories to last year’s nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) with the former government. The UNFC leaders discussed various modalities for joining the peace talks with the government, issues regarding declaration of a ceasefire and their participation in the peace process.
Armed ethnic groups like Arakan Army, Ta’ang Nationalities Liberation Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army; and the Arakan National Council, Wa National Organization and Lahu Democratic Union are still involved in fighting with the Myanmar Army.

Ma Ba Tha Radical Movement

Several renowned Buddhist monks from across Myanmar have spoken out against the nationalist Ma Ba Tha movement, describing it as a minority group, and its actions as divisive and politicised. Ma Ba Tha group have recently been disowned by the State Sangha; legal complaints have been lodged against them and the National League for Democracy (NLD) government has also reprimanded them. There is also a view that Ma Ba Tha was radical and close to the military-linked Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Problems between Ma Ba Tha and the government have been on the rise since the NLD assumed power.

India - Myanmar Relations

India’s Minister of State for External Affairs Gen. V.K. Singh met Aung San Suu Kyi on the side lines of ASEAN related meetings of the Foreign Ministers at Vientiane, Laos. Besides conveying her desire to visit India, Suu Kyi said that Myanmar was interested in learning from India's experience in solar power technologies and technology for recycling waste in construction of roads. Gen. VK Singh conveyed to her India's willingness to strengthen democratic institutions in Myanmar, particularly with respect to training their parliamentarians and to share experience in areas such as federalism, centre-state relations, distribution of power and resources between the centre and the state and political reconciliation.

Suu Kyi extended support to India's developmental projects such as the Kaladan Multimodal Project to connect Kolkata's seaport with Myanmar's Sittwe seaport and the Asian Tri-lateral highway, a strategic road connecting India, Myanmar and Thailand.

A Myanmarese delegation led by Deputy Minister of Home Affairs Major General Aung Soe called on the Union Home Minister Shri Rajnath Singh. Aung Soe was in New Delhi to attend 20th National Level Meeting between Myanmar and India. Indian side was represented by Shri Rajiv Mehrishi, Union Home Secretary. Discussions between the two sides covered issues of common concerns ranging from border management, security and consular matters, mutual cooperation to check activities of insurgent groups along the international border, checking of arms smuggling, exchange of intelligence information, prevention of drug trafficking, checking smuggling of wildlife articles. Joint inspection of boundary pillars and construction of additional boundary pillars on the international border was accepted as a means to avoid any confusion on this account. Consular issues, including prisoners in jails of the other country were discussed in detail. India offered capacity building programs for Myanmar Police, Narcotics, Crime Control and disaster mitigation and preparedness.

It is also believed that during the above discussions India has asked Myanmar to act against the NSCN (Khaplang) accused of ambushing an Army convoy in Manipur in June last year.

China

China at the 49^th ASEAN Foreign Minister meeting (23-26 July)

The 49^th ASEAN Foreign Minister’s meeting was held in Vientiane, Laos PDR. It was the first time China was meeting the ASEAN countries after the PCA award. The main theme of the meeting was “Turning Vision into Reality for a Dynamic ASEAN Community”. A total of 191 areas of cooperation were identified in the Joint Communiqué. This year also marks the 25th anniversary of the dialogue relationship between China and ASEAN.

During the meeting, there was a debate over whether to mention the PCA ruling. The ASEAN countries were divided on whether to rebuke China for its territorial ambitions, which infringes on areas claimed by four ASEAN member nations. The Philippines and the Vietnam strongly supported the ruling and wanted the communiqué to feature in the statement. This was rejected by Cambodia. This kind of stalemate over the joint statement had happened in 2012 when Cambodia was the host and the foreign ministers had failed to produce a joint communiqué because Cambodia objected to the Philippines proposal to include the SCS in the statement. The main difference between the 2012 and 2016 meeting is that in 2012 no statement could not issue, but this year a joint statement was issued omitting reference to the PCA ruling.

Highlighting the positive aspect of this year’s meeting Global times in an article titled “China, ASEAN must cooperate on sea issue” said that there were six articles mentioning ASEAN-China ties that reviewed the achievements in past bilateral meetings relating to cooperation in trade, investment, education, tourism and culture.

On the sidelines of the meeting the US, Japan and Australia issued a strong statement that fills the vacuum created by ASEAN main groupings. Their joint statement, expressed “strong support” for the rule of law and urged China and the Philippines to abide by the PCA ruling. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi antagonistically replied by saying the three countries were “fanning the flames” of regional tension and said “Now is the time to test whether you are peacekeepers or troublemakers”. Further, criticizing Australian position, Global Times carried an article “‘Paper Cat’ Australia will learn lesson.”

Additionally, opposing the role of external actor in the region China has frequently blamed the US for raising tensions in the region and has warned Japan to steer clear of the dispute. On the contrary, China and Russia have signed a naval forces plan for a joint exercise in the SCS in the month of September.

Developments related to Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD)

South Korea, on 19 July 2016, test-fired three Scud–C type short-range ballistic missiles from the western region of Hwangju in North Hwanghae province. The missiles were directed towards East and the flight was enough to reach the entire South Korean territory. The launch came as reaction against the decision of South Korea and the US to deploy the THAAD in Seongju County in South Korea.

China is deeply concerned over the THAAD development in the region for the reason that the radar technology might be used for surveillance to feed data in the US ballistic missile defence system. It is believed that under the South Korea-US deal, the THAAD battery will be operated by the US forces and the radar operation will not be made transparent.

On 28 July 2016, at the fourth meeting on Northeast Asia security held in Moscow, Chinese Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Kong Xuanyou and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov expressed firm opposition to the deployment of THAAD. They agreed to enhance coordination to cope with any negative development.

According to an article in Global times the measure can include how to technically disrupt THAAD and prepare to take aim at this system, including destroying the system with cruise missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles or stealth fighters.

Xi Jinping inspects army headquarters ahead of 89th Anniversary PLA

On 27^th July President Xi Jinping, Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) ahead of the 89^th anniversary of the founding of the PLA on 1 August 2016, inspected the army’s headquarters. In his speech he called the ground force of the PLA to transform and build itself into “mighty, modernised, new style” military force. Fan Changlong and Xu Qiliang, vice chairmen of the CMC, participated in the inspection.

In his speech Xi Jinping emphasised on strengthening laws and regulations, “political guarantee” in the army’s restructuring, requiring the army to unswervingly adhere to Party absolute leadership over the armed forces and obey the command of the CPC Central Committee and the CMC”. He also talked about anti-corruption campaign in military. He stressed that developing a strong army was crucial for building a world-leading military as well as Beijing’s long-term stability.

Early this year in February 2016, five theatre commands and joint operational commanding institutions were formed. The purpose of this new arrangement is to realise the Chinese Dream and the Dream of a Strong Military, a substantive measure to comprehensively implement the PLA’s strategy of building a strong military through reform and also a historic progress of the PLA in building its joint operational system. The new headquarters have been tasked to respond to security threats from their strategic directions, maintain peace, deter wars and win battles, and assist in “safeguarding the overall situation concerning the national security and military strategy.”

Taiwan’s reaction to the Permanent Court of Arbitration award

Taiwan denounced the PCA ward on the South China Sea (SCS) as the tribunal did not formally invite Taiwan nor did it solicit its views. President Tsai said, ‘the tribunal judgment had “gravely harmed” Taiwan’s right to the SCS. The Itu Aba (Taiping) islands are in possession of Taiwan. Taiwan was instrumental in drawing the 11 dash line that was later reduced into ‘9’. The tribunal ruled that all high-tide features in the SCS, including the Itu Aba (Taiping Island) are rocks rather than islands and therefore are not entitled to 200 nautical mile economic zone under international law.

Taiwan responded by saying that the Itu Aba Island meets the criteria of an island as defined under Article 121 of UNCLOS, it can sustain human habitation and an economic life of its own. “It is absolutely not a mere rock”. “The ROC is entitled to full maritime rights to Taiping Island in accordance with the UNCLOS.”

The Ministry of National Defence, in response to the outcome, announced that regardless of the outcome of the arbitration, the ROC government stands resolute on its SCS policy and the ROC military will steadfastly safeguard national territory and sovereignty. On 13 July, Taiwan sent a frigate to the Itu Aba Island (this was already pre-scheduled). President Tsai Ing wen boarded the frigate before its departure and addressed the crew. She said, “This patrol mission is to show the determination of the Taiwan people to defend our national interest”. On 20 July a group of law maker travelled to the Itu Aba Island in military plane. In addition, five fishing boats with 20 fishermen sailed towards the Itu Aba islands to emphasise national sovereignty. Notably, in recent time this is the only occasion where both Chinese and Taiwanese claims are similar.