Fortnightly Review & Analysis - West Asia & The Middle East (Vol 1 Issue I)

(June 16-30, 2016)

IRAQ

Liberation of Fallujah in Iraq

In a major setback for the terror outfit Daesh, the city of Fallujah in Iraq was declared “fully liberated” on 26 June. This was the first Iraqi city captured by the ISIS militias in January 2014. During the military operations conducted by the Iraqi forces, backed by the United States (US) and Iranian-backed forces, approximately 1,800 Daesh fighters were reportedly killed while the rest fled from the city. The liberation of this city deprives Daesh of a major territorial asset, especially at this juncture when it is losing ground at a rapid pace. As a result of this recapture, the focus is now shifting towards ‘liberating’ the city of Mosul from the outfit’ control. Although this is a significant development in anti-Daesh campaign in Iraq, there are other problems which are going to remain as major challenges for the Haidar al-Abadi government. One of them pertains to rebuilding the city from the ruins, and the other is rehabilitation of those civilians who fled the city during the operation. Alongside these issues, prevention of sectarian-based division and clashes will also pose a major challenge to the government. Due to this defeat at the hands of the state forces, there is a possibility that Daesh will strike back in the form of retaliatory attacks not only in Syria or Iraq but also in other parts of the world, both by its fighters/returnees and Daesh-influenced/inspired lone wolves.

West Asia

Reconciliation Deal between Israel and Turkey

In what could be considered as a major breakthrough, Israel and Turkey signed reconciliation deal on 27 June. This has happened after both countries suspended diplomatic relations following the Mavi Marmara incident that took place on 30 May 2010. On this day, Israeli Navy commandos stormed the Turkish flotilla which was heading towards Gaza Strip, and the violence resulted into the death of nine Turkish citizens. Under the agreements now signed by these two countries: Turkey will pass a law which voids all lawsuits against the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) who took part in the 2010 raid; Israel will pay a compensation worth US$20 million to the families of the Turkish victims; Gaza-bound Turkish humanitarian aid will first pass through the port of Ashdod in Israel; Israel will allow Turkey to build infrastructures such as hospitals, power station and desalination plant in Gaza Strip; both countries will normalise bilateral relations; restrictions on military-security-intelligence cooperation will be lifted; agreement to prevent military activity against Israel from Turkey; Turkey will allow Hamas office to operate in the country only for political activity. The deal came in the wake on the changing geopolitics in West Asia, particularly with the increasing threats from non-state actors. Furthermore, Israel and Turkey want to lessen their diplomatic isolation in the region by working together on issues of mutual national interest. Israel is apparently looking for a client for offshore gas which it discovered in December 2010. It is of the belief that sale of such gas to Turkey, which can also serve as a gateway to Europe, will help immensely in boosting its economy. Despite this development, an immediate resumption of military trade is unlikely.