Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor(29 January - 04 February 2024)

Economic

With China’s economic plenum still unscheduled, observers worry politics remain in command

Beijing’s reluctance to go full throttle in boosting economic growth – combined with an absence of clear directives for reform – could further dampen an already dreary climate, experts and foreign business groups have warned. China’s subdued economic recovery, its restraint in employing strong stimulus measures and mixed policy signals continue to weigh on both domestic and foreign investment as well as consumer confidence, they said. Despite those concerns, during Jan 31’s meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo – its first of 2024 – the 24-member decision-making body indicated the balance of attention will be placed on politics, as the People’s Republic prepares to celebrate its 75th anniversary in October. Top priorities will include party discipline and cohesion, according to a statement issued after the meeting, though “high-quality development” was also emphasised. National security and upholding unity under the party and central government’s leadership remain the most crucial goals, while other matters such as youth employment and economic rejuvenation seem to rank lower, observers and foreign chambers said. “Businesses do not know where they stand due to mixed messaging from the Chinese government, which is contributing to a growing sense of uncertainty, further eroding confidence in this important market,” said Adam Dunnett, secretary general of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. Click here to read... [2]

China’s growth model pushes Beijing into more trade conflicts

Swiss solar panel maker Meyer Burger is facing the brunt of competition from China and is warning it may have to close its loss-making production plant in Germany unless the government steps in with financial support. “Chinese manufacturers are deliberately selling goods in Europe far below their own production costs,” chief executive Gunter Erfurt told Reuters. “They can do this because the solar industry in China has been strategically subsidized with hundreds of billions of dollars for years.” Growing alarm over Chinese industrial overcapacity flooding the European Union with cheap products is opening a new front in the West’s trade war with Beijing, which kicked off with Washington’s import tariffs in 2018. Brussels’ trade policy is now also turning increasingly protective against the global ramifications of China’s production-focused, debt-driven development model. Throughout last year, China’s policymakers flagged their intention to make domestic demand a more prominent growth driver to wean the world’s second-largest economy off its decades-long reliance on infrastructure and the property sector. But China has diverted financial resources from real estate to manufacturers rather than households, raising overcapacity concerns, deepening factory-gate deflation, and prompting a European Union investigation into its electric vehicle sector. China’s current path leads to more trade conflicts, warns Pascal Lamy, former head of the World Trade Organization, now distinguished professor at China Europe International Business School. Click here to read... [3]

Pentagon calls out Chinese companies it says are helping Beijing’s military

The United States on Jan 31 added more than a dozen Chinese companies to a list created by the Defense Department to highlight firms it says are allegedly working with Beijing’s military, as part of a broader effort to keep American technology from aiding China. New additions to the list, first reported by Reuters, were posted on the Department of Defense website and include memory chip maker YMTC, artificial intelligence company Megvii, lidar maker Hesai Technology and tech company NetPosa. Amid strained ties between the world’s two biggest economies, the updated list is one of numerous actions Washington has taken in recent years to highlight and restrict Chinese companies that is says may strengthen Beijing’s military. A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington said China opposed the move and called it an abuse of state power, adding that it ran counter to the U.S.’s “alleged commitment to market competition and international fair trade.” Hesai Group said it does not sell products to any military in any country and it does not have ties with any military. The company said it was disappointed to be added to the list. YMTC and Megvii did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Click here to read... [4]

Tesla, Toyota, others at risk of using Xinjiang forced labor, report says

Automakers including Toyota Motor, General Motors, Tesla and Volkswagen could be exposed to forced labor in Xinjiang through a key metal used in their cars, according to a new Human Rights Watch report. Aluminum, crucial to the manufacture of electric vehicles, is used in automobile frames, engine blocks and battery foils. More than 15% of China's production of the metal comes from the western autonomous region of Xinjiang, where Chinese authorities stand accused of human rights abuses against Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslims, a charge long denied by Beijing. Chinese and foreign automakers alike make cars in China and source materials, including aluminum, domestically. But researchers have found alleged links between Xinjiang's aluminum producers and labor transfer programs that allegedly relocate Uyghurs from rural areas to factories by force. The region's aluminum output is shipped to other parts of China for use in components. It can also be melted down, obscuring its origin, according to the rights group. "Most companies have done too little to map their supply chains for aluminum parts and identify and address potential links to Xinjiang," says the report published on Feb 01. "Confronted with an opaque aluminum industry and the threat of Chinese government reprisals for investigating links to Xinjiang, carmakers in many cases remain unaware of the extent of their exposure to forced labor." Click here to read... [5]

U.S.-led Indo-Pacific supply chain deal to take effect Feb. 24

An agreement signed by the United States and 13 other Indo-Pacific countries aimed at reinforcing their supply chains will enter into force on Feb. 24, the Commerce Department said Jan 31. The U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework deal will allow the countries, including Australia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore and Thailand, to work more closely in dealing with supply chain disruptions, such as in the event of a pandemic, by helping each other secure critical industrial items and minerals. The economic initiative, known as IPEF, was launched by U.S. President Joe Biden in Tokyo in May 2022 to create high-level common standards for commercial activities. China is not part of the framework, and it is seen as a tool to reduce reliance on the Asian power for semiconductors and other key materials. "I am thrilled to see the continued commitment and enthusiasm of the IPEF partners to make concrete progress and deliver tangible outcomes in record time," U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said in a statement. With the agreement, she said, the countries will step up efforts to prevent potential disruptions before they arise for the collective benefit of workers and companies. The accord was inked in November in San Francisco, when Biden hosted the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, after the countries largely agreed on its contents in May last year. Click here to read... [6]

How have Red Sea attacks by Yemen’s Houthi fighters affected companies?

Attacks on vessels by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in the Red Sea have disrupted international trade on the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia. The strikes, which came in solidarity with Palestinians facing Israeli bombardments in Gaza, are targeting a route that accounts for about 15 percent of the world’s shipping traffic, forcing several shipping companies to reroute their vessels. The Houthi assaults have pushed several commercial vessels passing through the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to take an alternative and much longer route around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, causing major changes and delays. Here’s a look at the impact the Houthi raids had on major companies: Autos. Geely: China’s second-largest automaker by sales said on December 22 that its electric vehicle (EV) sales would likely be impacted by a delay in deliveries. Michelin: Four factories in Spain owned by the French tyre maker halted output on January 20-21 due to raw materials delivery delays. Suzuki: The company’s Hungary production plant restarted manufacturing on January 22 as planned following a halt the previous week due to delays in the arrival of Japanese-made engines. It said shipping routes were changed to pass around Africa, which could affect pricing. Click here to read... [7]

Red Sea Attacks Force Firms to Test New Land Routes Via UAE, Saudi

An Israeli software startup and one of the world’s biggest shipping lines are among companies that for the first time are opening up commercial trade routes running through the heart of the Middle East to bypass the Houthi-menaced Red Sea. Trucknet Enterprise Ltd. is sending goods including food, plastics, chemicals and electricals from ports in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, through Saudi Arabia and Jordan, on to Israel and further to Europe, Chief Executive Officer Hanan Fridman said. Hapag-Lloyd AG, the world’s No. 5 container carrier, is looking to link Dubai’s Jebel Ali and two eastern Saudi ports with Jeddah on the west coast. Another of its options connects Jebel Ali with Jordan. The routes offer an immediate solution to shipments trying to avoid the Houthi hot zone around the Bab el-Mandeb strait in the southern Red Sea, where months of missile and drone attacks have forced many commercial vessels to divert to a longer route around Africa. It’s disrupted crucial trade flows, raised freight costs and the impact is starting to filter through the global economy. Companies have been forced to look for ambitious alternatives. Trucknet’s route has not previously been attempted on a commercial scale due to strained relations between Israel and Arab nations. Click here to read... [8]

Thailand, Sri Lanka sign free trade agreement

Thailand and Sri Lanka signed a Free Trade Agreement on Feb 03, a move Sri Lanka hopes will help it emerge from its worst financial crisis in decades. The island nation has been renewing a focus on trade deals to foster economic growth and help its battered economy, which is estimated by the World Bank to have contracted 3.8% last year, after a severe foreign exchange crunch plunged it into a wider financial crisis. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is aimed at enhancing market opportunities, with negotiations covering various aspects such as Trade in Goods, Investment, Customs Procedure and Intellectual Property Rights, the short statement added. A delegation headed by Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin arrived in Colombo on Feb 03 to sign the FTA along with other agreements and Thavisin will also attend Sri Lanka's 76th Independence Day celebrations on Feb 04. "This will provide tremendous business opportunities for both sides. We encourage our private sectors to explore the potentials of two-way trade and investment," Prime Minister Thavisin told a joint media briefing following the signing. The two countries also signed a new bilateral air services agreement, providing for liberalized air services between the two countries. The countries' two-way trade was worth about $460 million in 2021, Sri Lankan central bank data shows. Click here to read... [9]

Nearly eight million people displaced by war in Sudan: UN

Nine months into a bloody war, nearly eight million people have been forced from their homes in Sudan, the United Nations says, calling for urgent additional support to cope with the crisis. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees reported the alarming figure on Jan 31 as High Commissioner Filippo Grandi concluded a visit to Ethiopia, to which many of the displaced people have fled. The UNHCR said it is facing a chronic shortfall in needed funds. Since April 2023, more than 100,000 people have crossed into Ethiopia from Sudan, including close to 47,000 refugees and asylum seekers. About 50,000 Sudanese refugees were already in the country. Grandi called for “urgent and additional support to meet their needs” as he inspected the efforts of the Ethiopian government and the UNHCR to assist. Five other neighbouring countries have also received huge numbers of Sudanese refugees. More than half a million people have fled to Chad since April. On average, 1,500 people cross daily into South Sudan. The latest wave of violence in the 20-year conflict has left nearly half of Sudan’s 49 million people requiring aid. The UN reports that 12,000 people had been killed by the end of 2023, but the actual death toll is believed to be higher. Click here to read... [10]

Uranium Prices Soar As World Turns to Nuclear Power

As the need for abundant and expedient carbon-free energy intensifies and solar and wind power deployment hit some major speedbumps, more and more industry experts are calling for a resurgence of nuclear energy. While nuclear power has been out of vogue for decades now, proponents argue that its myriad values can no longer be ignored. In the era of climate change, the benefits of nuclear energy are growing increasingly valuable – nuclear fission yields no greenhouse gas emissions, it’s a proven technology with existing supply chains and well-worn blueprints, and, crucially, it’s a base load power source. Unlike solar and wind production, which are variable and answer not to consumer demand but to the whims of the weather, nuclear energy production can be manipulated to provide exactly as much energy as we need, when we need it. As a result, nuclear energy is gaining more and more vocal proponents, and public opinion is shifting in favor of nuclear power expansion. In fact, public support for nuclear energy in the United States is at a 10-year high according to a Gallup poll released last year. And world leaders are listening. At last year’s United Nations climate summit in Expo City Dubai, 22 countries including the U.S. pledged to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050. Click here to read... [11]

U.S. Natural Gas Exports: A Double-Edged Sword for Domestic Consumers

After reading Art Berman's excellent summary of how fast-growing U.S. natural gas exports are likely to reduce domestic supplies significantly over the next several years as shale gas output begins to decline, I want to assure you that everything has been going according to plan for the natural gas industry, that is, until now. On Jan 26, the Biden Administration announced a freeze on new permits for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities that could last up to 15 months. The administration said that during the freeze it will review the environmental effects of such exports on climate and the communities in which the facilities are located. It is also possible that despite the industry's assurances, the administration may believe that supply problems and therefore higher prices lie ahead, something that voters won't like. When U.S. oil and gas producers successfully lobbied the federal government for an end to restrictions on the export of crude oil and natural gas in the middle of the last decade, they loudly proclaimed that America could produce so much of both from the country's shale fields that the United States would have plenty left over for export—and that would boost the American economy while addressing the country's trade imbalance. They promised that this boom would go on for decades. Click here to read... [12]

Farmers Block Key Roads Between Belgium and the Netherlands

Farmers parked their tractors across key road crossings on the border between Belgium and the Netherlands on Feb 02 in their latest protest against excessive red tape and competition from cheap imports. The roadblocks, mainly by Belgian farmers with support of some Dutch colleagues, choked highways that are vital transport routes for freight from the major European ports of Antwerp and Rotterdam. They were set up after a day of chaos Feb 01 in Brussels, where angry farmers torched hay bales and threw eggs and firecrackers at police near a summit of European Union leaders. While blockades sprang up on the Belgian-Dutch border, they were gradually easing around Paris and elsewhere in France after the French government on Feb 01 offered over 400 million euros ($436 million) in various measures. In Germany, however, lawmakers on Feb 02 approved cuts to fuel subsidies for farmers that have prompted angry protests there. Jan Jambon, the prime minister of Belgium's Flemish region, pledged to help the agriculture sector. “We are going to see what we can reasonably do. But basically, I have a lot of sympathy for their complaints. We are now going to see how we can make that concrete," he told Belgian broadcaster VTM. Click here to read... [13]

Meta, X, TikTok CEOs Ripped by Senators Over Child Online Safety

Leaders from five social media platforms were admonished by US lawmakers on Jan 31 over their “failure” to protect kids online from sexual predators and mental health issues, and were pressed to support new legislation to impose controls. The 21-member Senate Judiciary Committee called the chief executives of Meta Platforms Inc., X, Snap Inc., Discord Inc. and TikTok to Washington in an effort to hold them accountable for their platforms’ impact on teenagers and children. “These companies must be reined in, or the worst is yet to come,” Senator Lindsey Graham, the top Republican on the committee, said. Singling out Meta Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg, Graham said he had “blood on his hands,” detailing a story of a child who was a victim of sexual exploitation. “You have a product that’s killing people,” he added. His comments were met with an uproar of applause and cheers from advocates in attendance in the packed hearing room. Congress has been under pressure to respond to mounting evidence of the spread of child sexual abuse material online and the tech companies’ inability to protect children from predators. They have also raised concerns about the effect social media use has on young people’s mental health. TikTok and Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, are facing lawsuits in California that claim the companies were negligent and ignored the potential harms their platforms created for teens. Click here to read... [14]

Debt-ridden Chinese developer Evergrande liquidated

A Hong Kong court on Jan 29 ordered the liquidation of property giant China Evergrande Group, the world’s most indebted developer, after an 18-month long hearing. Judge Linda Chan delivered the ruling, saying “it is time for the court to say enough is enough” after the troubled developer repeatedly failed to come up with a convincing plan to restructure its debts. The company had been given seven extensions since court proceedings began in 2022. The real estate firm, which first ran into trouble refinancing its debt in 2020, now faces 2.39 trillion yuan ($333 billion) of total liabilities, a figure that significantly outweigh its 1.74 trillion yuan ($240 billion) in assets. Most of the latter are in mainland China, which is a different jurisdiction than Hong Kong. The liquidation petition was lodged by Top Shine in June 2022, an investor in Evergrande unit Fangchebao, which claimed the developer had failed to honor an agreement to repurchase shares it had bought in the subsidiary. Evergrande sent China’s struggling property sector into a tailspin when it defaulted on its debt in 2021. The company’s troubles affected China’s entire real estate market, with companies accounting for 40% of home sales defaulting on their debt obligations since mid-2021, including Kaisa Group and Shimao Group Holdings. Click here to read... [15]

China’s seed industry at least a generation behind as Western giants enter ‘Industry 4.0 Era’, must increase collaboration

China’s seed industry is at least a generation behind the Western giants in terms of technology, with a government-backed agency calling for enhanced financial, infrastructural and talent support for domestic suppliers in a rare but candid assessment of the sector. The China Seed Association, backed the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, last week also encouraged firms to expand international collaboration efforts. “Overseas seed giants have entered the ‘Industry 4.0 Era’ utilising big data, artificial intelligence and gene editing, while Chinese seed suppliers are still in the transition stage to the ‘Industry 3.0 Era’ primarily focusing on molecular breeding,” the report said. The call came amid Beijing’s growing push for self-reliance in the seed industry, which is billed as the agriculture version of semiconductors, but is also seen as a weak link in China’s overall food security drive. As part of efforts to address the over-reliance on seed imports from major exporters like the United States, China’s Seed Law came into effect in March 2022, aimed at keeping germplasm resources “independent and controllable”. China, though, still lags behind major seed giants such as the United States and Germany, which have formed complete industry chains spanning from seed cultivation to sales, and also drive the development of related industries such as biotechnology and food. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

China-US talks in Bangkok yield ‘useful’ discussions on Taiwan, other issues: Sullivan

The US and China made progress in last week’s talks in Thailand on starting a dialogue in “the spring” on the responsible use of artificial intelligence, Washington’s top national security official said late on Jan 30. US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said his nine hours of talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also included “very useful direct” talks over Taiwan and frank discussions on instability in the Red Sea, the Ukraine war and the Korean peninsula. The Bangkok talks on Jan 26 and Jan 27 were the first high-level meetings between the two wary giants since Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden met in November in California. “Both of us leave feeling that we didn’t agree or see eye to eye on everything but that there was a lot of work to carry forward,” Sullivan told a conference sponsored by the University of California, San Diego and the Council on Foreign Relations. “Both of us agreed that we would report back to our leaders and we would get them on the phone sooner rather than later,” he added, without providing a date. While reviewing the China-US relationship at the conference, Sullivan suggested that Washington is prepared to sanction Beijing over its growing non-lethal support to Moscow, including heavy trucks and other equipment used in the Ukraine war. Click here to read... [17]

U.S. deploys three carriers in Asia, maintaining China focus

The U.S. military has doubled down on its effort to deter China and North Korea by deploying three aircraft carriers to the western Pacific, despite growing concerns over the potential for a wider conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. Navy allowed reporters from a few media outlets including Nikkei Asia to board aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson for a training exercise with Japan in the Philippine Sea on Jan 31. The Carl Vinson sailed in formation with another U.S. carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, and the Japanese helicopter destroyer JS Ise. Nine other vessels also participated in the exercise, according to a statement from the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force. USS Ronald Reagan, the only forward-based aircraft carrier stationed in Yokosuka in Japan, is currently at its home port, meaning that three out of eleven U.S. carriers are in the Indo-Pacific. According to the U.S. Naval Institute, the occasion appears to be the first time in two years that three U.S. carriers have been positioned near the so-called first island chain, connecting Okinawa and Taiwan to the Philippines. "What I can say is that the carrier strike group is ready to execute the full range of operations," Rear Adm. Carlos Sardiello, commander of the Carl Vinson strike group, told reporters. "These training opportunities where we can rapidly aggregate these large, capable, agile platforms here in the Philippine Sea is a great rehearsal opportunity for us," he added. Click here to read... [18]

Pakistan and Iran patch up ties but militants poised to play spoilers

A move by Pakistan and Iran to restore their relationship after tit-for-tat missile strikes on militant groups is being overshadowed by the risk that such outfits will continue to act as spoilers in the increasingly volatile region. Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian visited Pakistan on Jan 29 and met with caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul-Haq Kakar and army chief Syed Asim Munir, before holding a joint news conference with his Pakistani counterpart Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani. The two sides vowed to respect each other's sovereignty and expand security cooperation, with Abdollahian saying, "We will not let terrorists endanger and threaten the security of the two nations." Iran had launched the first salvo earlier in January, targeting the alleged bases of a militant group in the restive Pakistani province of Balochistan. Islamabad fired back days later at "terrorist hideouts" in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan. But even before Jan 29's talks began, militants had already shaken the ties again by killing Pakistani laborers in Iran over the weekend. The tensions between Pakistan and Iran are also part of a much broader outbreak of violence in the Middle East, roiled by the Israel-Hamas war and other flaring conflicts. The U.S. has blamed Iran-backed militants for a drone attack on Jan 28 that killed three of its service members and wounded dozens, a claim Tehran denied. Click here to read... [19]

Beijing’s changes to civil flight path near Taiwan Strait median line likely to ‘squeeze’ island’s air defence capacity

Beijing has adjusted civil aviation routes near the sensitive median line in the Taiwan Strait, a move expected to further “squeeze” the air space controlled by Taipei. The changes, taking effect on Feb 01, were announced without consultation with Taiwan. Analysts warned that the move would not only drastically cut the depth of air defence for Taiwan, but also reduce the response time available to the island’s air force in case of a cross-strait attack. In a brief statement late on Jan 30, Beijing’s Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) said it was cancelling an “offset measure” for southbound operations of the M503 flight route. The route is just west of the strait median line – a notional midway point between self-governed Taiwan and mainland China. The CAAC said it would also start eastbound operations of two side routes – W122 and W123 – which connect M503 with the cities of Fuzhou and Xiamen in Fujian province. All of the affected routes are within the Shanghai Flight Information Region. The CAAC announcement comes just weeks after Taiwanese voters elected Vice-President William Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as the island’s next leader. Beijing, which sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary, has described Lai as an “obstinate separatist” and warned he would bring the risk of war to Taiwan. Click here to read... [20]

ASEAN to start sending humanitarian aid to Myanmar in February

ASEAN members' foreign ministers on Jan 29 agreed to send humanitarian assistance to Myanmar, the first such move by the bloc since a military takeover created a political crisis in the country in February 2021. The ASEAN Ministerial Meeting Retreat took place in the World Heritage site of Luang Prabang, the first major event under Laos' ASEAN chairmanship after it took over the bloc's annually rotating role from Indonesia. According to the Thai delegation, humanitarian aid covers medical and food supplies and drugs. The 10 ASEAN members agreed to push forward help via the Thailand-Myanmar border, stretching over 2,000 kilometers. Pranpree Bahiddhanukara, Thailand's deputy prime minister and foreign minister, told reporters after the meeting that he and relevant Thai authorities are due to visit the border town of Mae Sot to seek an appropriate checkpoint to establish under the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance (AHA). "It is a good sign that Myanmar expresses its will to support and welcome ASEAN in setting up the AHA," Pranpree told reporters, adding that humanitarian aid is expected to be sent to Myanmar by late February. Saleumxay Kommasith, Laos' deputy prime minister and foreign minister, told reporters at a news conference that Myanmar had sent a senior Foreign Ministry bureaucrat, its first representative to attend a high-level meeting of the bloc in more than two years. Click here to read... [21]

Myanmar’s resistance forces suggest terms for the military’s eventual handover of power

Myanmar’s leading resistance group and allied ethnic armed groups battling the military government on Jan 31 released a political road map to ending military rule and enabling a peaceful transition of power, saying they were open to peace talks with the army if it accepted their terms. The joint statement was released a day ahead of the third anniversary of the army’s seizure of power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, and the same day the government extended a state of emergency for another six months. The emergency decree empowers the military to assume all government functions. The joint statement, posted on social media, was the clearest yet on the resistance movement’s goals if it prevails in the civil war. The military government had no immediate reaction. Myanmar’s political crisis was unleashed when the military took power and used deadly force to suppress widespread peaceful protests, triggering armed resistance throughout the country that the army has been unable to quell. The new statement is from the National Unity Government, or NUG, established by elected lawmakers who were barred from taking their seats. It claims to be Myanmar’s legitimate government. The other signers are the Chin National Front, the Karenni National Progressive Party and the Karen National Union, all in active combat against the military government. Click here to read... [22]

Russia to Japan: Drop territorial claim if you want a peace treaty

Senior Russian security official Dmitry Medvedev told Japan on Jan 30 it would have to drop territorial claims to a group of Pacific islands if it wanted to conclude a peace treaty with Russia formally ending World War II. The blunt remarks by Medvedev, a former president who is deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, over what Moscow calls the Kuril Islands are likely to anger Japan which lays claim to four of the southernmost islands, which it calls the Northern Territories. Russia, the main successor state to the Soviet Union, and Japan have never signed a peace treaty formally ending their hostilities during World War II, with the islands remaining the primary stumbling block. The islands are located off Hokkaido, Japan’s northernmost main island, and were seized by the Soviet Union at the end of World War Two. Diplomats on both sides once spoke of the possibility of reviving a Soviet-era draft agreement that envisaged returning two of the four islands to Japan as part of a peace deal. But Russia withdrew from peace treaty talks with Japan and froze joint economic projects related to the islands in 2022 because of Japanese sanctions over Russia’s war in Ukraine and relations have soured further since. Click here to read... [23]

US launches strikes in response to attack that killed troops in Jordan

The United States military has launched dozens of air strikes against targets in Syria and Iraq in the first retaliation for a drone attack that killed three soldiers at a remote US base in Jordan. “At my direction, US military forces struck targets at facilities in Iraq and Syria that the IRGC and affiliated militia use to attack US forces,” US President Joe Biden said in a statement on Feb 02, referring to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). “Our response began today. It will continue at times and places of our choosing,” he added. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said its military forces struck more than 85 targets in the two countries “with numerous aircraft to include long-range bombers flown from the United States”. “The air strikes employed more than 125 precision munitions,” it added in a statement. CENTCOM said the facilities that were struck included command and control operations centres, intelligence centres, weapons storage sites and other facilities connected to the militias or the IRGC’s Quds Force, the Guard’s expeditionary unit that handles Tehran’s relationship and arming of regional groups. Three US soldiers were killed and about 40 others injured in a drone attack on the military base known as Tower 22 near the Jordan-Syria border on Jan 28. Click here to read... [24]

U.S. Presses for Long Cease-Fire to Pave Way for End of Gaza War

U.S. negotiators are pushing for a cease-fire deal that could stop the war in Gaza long enough to stall Israel’s military momentum and potentially set the stage for a more lasting truce, according to U.S. and Arab officials familiar with the negotiations. Israel and Hamas are considering a three-part deal that would release hostages in Gaza beginning with a six-week cease-fire, according to a draft of the agreement hashed out this week by international intelligence chiefs in Paris. Subsequent phases also would see fighting stop and more hostages let go. U.S. negotiators, led by Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns, argue that it would be difficult for Israel to resume the war at its current intensity after a long pause, the officials said. The U.S. also has told fellow negotiators that Israel was considering the idea of moving to a phase—once all hostages are released—during which major operations would be more limited, including airstrikes on Gaza, the officials added. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t respond to a request for comment on whether it was considering such a prospect. “We are looking at an extended pause as the goal,” said White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. “How long, that’s all part of the discussions, but longer than what we saw in November, which was about a week.” Click here to read... [25]

Israeli ministers join gathering calling for resettlement of Gaza

Several members of the Israeli government joined a far-right conference calling for the resettlement of the Gaza Strip and occupied West Bank. The conference, organised by the right-wing Nahala organisation on Jan 28 night and dubbed “Settlement Brings Security and Victory”, called for new Jewish settlements to be built in the Palestinian territories. The call of the politicians and activists gathering in occupied East Jerusalem came amid international pressure on Israel to confirm it would respect Palestinian statehood after its war on Gaza ends. Israel withdrew its military and settlers from the Gaza Strip in 2005 after a 38-year occupation. Debate is ongoing over who will run the enclave following the end of the war that started after the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel does not intend to maintain a permanent presence again but insists that Israel will maintain security control for an indefinite period. Israel’s international partners, led by the United States, have said a two-state solution is the only way that would guarantee security for both sides. Netanyahu, facing significant political pressure, is resisting, although he has not presented a clear plan of what his government envisages for the future. Israel’s Channel 12 reported that 12 ministers from Netanyahu’s Likud party attended the conference. His far-right coalition partners, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, reiterated calls for Palestinians to be removed from Gaza. Click here to read... [26]

China’s Diplomatic Gesture to Taliban Stirs International Debate

Chinese President Xi Jinping on January 30 formally accepted the credentials of the Taliban-appointed ambassador, becoming the first head of state to do so. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin clarified that the move did not mean Beijing officially recognized the Taliban government. “Diplomatic recognition of the Afghan government will come naturally as the concerns of various parties are effectively addressed,” he said. The Taliban, however, celebrated the move as a major diplomatic victory. "China understands what the rest of the world needs to understand," chief Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said, urging other countries to expand bilateral relations with his government. Why It's Important: China’s move is a boost to the Taliban-led government, which has not been recognized by any country since the extremist group seized power in 2021. Beijing’s expanding diplomatic ties with the Taliban government could prompt other countries in the region, including Iran and Russia, to follow suit. Ibraheem Bahiss, an Afghanistan expert at the International Crisis Group, said Beijing’s decision suggested that the Taliban was making headway in its strategy to gain official recognition from regional countries. Countries in the region are growing “more and more skeptical about the Western consensus that the Taliban should stay confined to pariah status on the world stage,” he wrote. Click here to read... [27]

Russia Hires Its Own Africa Army to Succeed Wagner’s Mercenaries

Russia, in a new push to expand its influence in Africa, is recruiting for an armed force to replace the Wagner group’s mercenaries across the continent. The Africa Corps would bolster Russia’s military presence with what it says would be a network of planned Defense Ministry-controlled bases, in a bid to revive Moscow’s Cold War-era clout on the continent at a time of steeply declining Western influence. It would also allow the Kremlin to consolidate control of Wagner’s business network in Africa, including potentially lucrative mining interests, following the death last year of the group’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin. “It’s a recognition on the part of the Kremlin that there’s an opportunity to exploit,” said J. Peter Pham, former US special envoy to the Sahel. “If it’s formalized, especially with the French withdrawal, it’s certainly going to be a much more significant and potentially lasting shift in geopolitical and diplomatic alignments.” French troops fighting insurgents in the Sahel left both Mali and Burkina Faso after the military ousted the civilian government and moved closer to Russia. The Africa Corps, which controversially shares the name of Adolf Hitler’s expeditionary force, aims to enlist new recruits and former Wagner fighters by mid-year to deploy to at least five Russia-friendly countries — Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic and Niger — according to the group. Click here to read... [28]

Taiwan’s Opposition Gains Control of Legislature in Blow to Lai

Taiwan’s main opposition party secured control of the island’s legislature, underscoring the potential challenges ahead for president-elect Lai Ching-te in pursuing major reforms. A new cohort of legislators were sworn in Feb 01 after prevailing in January’s election, which returned the US-friendly ruling party to power. Their first job was to elect a speaker, eventually choosing Han Kuo-yu, a former presidential candidate for the Kuomintang, after two rounds of voting. Securing the speaker’s role gives the KMT effective control of Taiwan’s legislative agenda for the next four years. The opposition’s win represents a headache for the Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai, who will take office in May, making it harder for him to push through policies that require legislative changes. The KMT favors closer ties with China, which views Taiwan as part of its territory, putting it at odds with the DPP, which holds that the island is a de facto independent nation. While no party won an outright majority in the 113-person legislature in the recent election, the KMT has the most seats with 52. Lai’s DPP has 51 while the Taiwan People’s Party has eight. There are also two independent lawmakers. The new speaker is widely seen as a divisive figure in Taiwan. Han won a surprise victory in 2018 to become mayor of Kaohsiung, the southern port city typically viewed as a stronghold of DPP support. Click here to read... [29]

EU approves €50 billion in Ukraine aid

EU leaders have signed off on a €50 billion ($54 billion) package of economic aid to Ukraine, overcoming resistance from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The Hungarian leader accused Brussels of “blackmailing” him into accepting the deal. European Council President Charles Michel announced the news on Feb 01 morning, minutes after the bloc’s leaders sat down for talks in Brussels. “All 27 leaders agreed on an additional €50 billion support package for Ukraine within the EU budget,” Michel wrote on X. “This locks in steadfast, long-term, predictable funding for Ukraine.” The sum will be drawn from the EU’s collective budget and doled out over four years to Kiev, where it will be used to pay public sector salaries, keep government departments open, and prop up the beleaguered welfare system. The EU budget, already agreed three years ago, will have to be modified to include the mammoth aid package. Any such modifications require the unanimous approval of all 27 bloc member states. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban warned for months that he would veto the proposal, arguing that the EU has no idea how the money will be spent and no idea what will happen in Ukraine in the coming months. Orban has also argued that Ukraine cannot defeat Russia on the battlefield, and that Western leaders should be pushing Kiev toward a ceasefire and peace talks. Click here to read... [30]

Chinese military: provincial heads in unusual flurry of visits to Eastern Theatre Command to support war planning

Chinese provincial chiefs have made a flurry of visits to the PLA command overseeing Taiwan, pledging full support for war readiness. In the past month, three provincial-level Communist Party secretaries have made special tours to the Eastern Theatre Command, meeting its chief, General Lin Xiangyang. As well as responsibility for the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea, the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theatre Command has authority over the military forces within these provinces. Although the visits are not unprecedented, it is unusual to have so many in such a short time, particularly so close to Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections on January 13. In a meeting with Lin at the command on Jan 30, Anhui party secretary Han Jun said the province would “fully support troop training and combat readiness” of the command, according to Anhui Daily newspaper. A day earlier Zhou Zuyi, party secretary of Fujian province, met Lin, saying he hoped the command could “make greater contributions to the great cause of reunification”, referring to Beijing’s goal of unifying with Taiwan. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to arming Taiwan. Click here to read... [31]

Health

Elon Musk says the first human has received an implant from Neuralink, but other details are scant

According to Elon Musk, the first human received an implant from his computer-brain interface company Neuralink over the weekend. In a Jan 31 post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, Musk said that the patient received the implant the day prior and was “recovering well.” He added that “initial results show promising neuron spike detection.” The billionaire, who co-founded Neuralink, did not provide additional details about the patient. When Neuralink announced in September that it would begin recruiting people, the company said it was searching for individuals with quadriplegia due to cervical spinal cord injury or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, commonly known as ALS or Lou Gehrig’s Disease. Neuralink is one of many groups working on linking the nervous system to computers, efforts aimed at helping treat brain disorders, overcoming brain injuries and other applications. There are more than 40 brain computer interface trials underway, according to clinicaltrials.gov. Neuralink reposted Musk’s Jan 29 post on X but did not publish any additional statements acknowledging the human implant. The company did not immediately respond to The Associated Press’ requests for comment Jan 30. Click here to read... [32]

UK to Ban Disposable Vapes In Bid to Protect Children’s Health

Disposable vapes are to be banned in the UK in an effort to protect children’s health amid a surge in use among the young. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will unveil the legislation during a school visit on Jan 29. The new powers will also ban flavors that are marketed at children and force manufacturers to use plainer packaging. Shops will have to move vapes out of sight of children. Any retailer selling tobacco or vapes to underage customers faces “on the spot” fines of up to £2,500 under the legislation. Vaping alternatives - such as nicotine pouches - will also be banned for children. The measures are part of the government’s response to its consultation on smoking and vaping, launched in October last year. Sunak plans to outlaw anyone born on or after Jan 1 2009 from buying tobacco, in a bid to create a “smoke free generation.” “The long-term impacts of vaping are unknown and the nicotine within them can be highly addictive, so while vaping can be a useful tool to help smokers quit, marketing vapes to children is not acceptable,” the prime minister said. The measures drew an immediate backlash from both the industry and the right of the ruling Conservative party. Liz Truss, the former prime minister, said Sunak’s plan was an anti-Conservative extension of the “nanny state.” Click here to read... [33]