Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (04-10 December 2023)

Economic

COP28 clashes over fossil fuel phaseout after OPEC pushback

Countries clashed on Dec 09 over a possible agreement to phaseout fossil fuels at the COP28 summit in Dubai, jeopardizing attempts to deliver a first-ever commitment to eventually end the use of oil and gas in 30 years of global warming talks. Saudi Arabia and Russia were among several countries insisting that the conference in Dubai focus only on reducing climate pollution -- and not on targeting the fossil fuels causing it, according to observers in the negotiations. On the other side, at least 80 countries including the United States, the European Union and many poor, climate-vulnerable nations are demanding that a COP28 deal call clearly for an eventual end to fossil fuel use. COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber told nations late on Dec 09 to speed up work to find a final deal, saying there were "still more areas of divergence than agreement." "The window is closing to close the gaps," he told the summit. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais earlier said in comments read out to the summit delegates by an official: "We need realistic approaches to tackle emissions. One that enables economic growth, helps eradicate poverty and increases resilience at the same time." Earlier this week, the oil producer group sent a letter urging its members and allies to reject any mention of fossil fuels in the final summit deal, warning that "undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point." Click here to read... [2]

United States And Allies To Triple Nuclear Energy Capacity By 2050

The United States and 21 other countries have pledged to triple their respective nuclear energy capacities by 2050, saying incorporating more nuclear power in their energy mix is critical for achieving their net zero goals in the coming decades. The United States, alongside Britain, France, Canada, Sweden, South Korea, Ghana and the United Arab Emirates have signed the declaration at the COP28 climate summit currently underway in Dubai. Although tripling their nuclear energy output will go a long way in helping Europe become more energy independent, it’s likely to come at a heavy price. Consider that in the majority of advanced economies, home to nearly 70 percent of global nuclear capacity, investment in nuclear energy has mostly stalled thanks to massive cost overruns, incessant project delays as well as never-ending public opposition. Indeed, all 31 nuclear power plants that have been constructed since 2017 belong to China and Russia. But the leaders attending the climate summit are confident they can overcome these hurdles. John Kerry, President Biden’s climate envoy, says there are “trillions of dollars” available that could be used for investment in nuclear energy. France’s President Emmanuel Macron has said that nuclear energy, including small modular reactors, is an “indispensable solution” in the fight against climate change. Click here to read... [3]

China-Russia trade tops $200bn a year ahead of schedule

Trade between Russia and China has surpassed $200 billion this year, official data shows, hitting the countries' goal a year earlier than they had anticipated. China's General Administration of Customs said Dec 07 that trade with Russia totaled $218.1 billion for the January-November period. The two sides agreed in 2019 to lift bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2024. In 2018, total trade between Russia and China topped $100 billion for the first time. Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year drew sanctions against Moscow that cut trade with Western countries, leading it to accelerate trade with China. Beijing has sought to maintain "normal" trade and economic exchanges with Moscow despite the war in Ukraine. Beijing's exports to Russia jumped 50% on the year to $100.3 billion for January-November, while imports from Russia climbed 12% to $117.8 billion. Both have broken the annual record set last year. "Exports of vehicles have risen, along with cellphones and other electronic and electrical goods," said Takamoto Suzuki at Marubeni (China), a subsidiary of Japanese trading house Marubeni. Meanwhile, the growth in imports from Russia were driven by natural resources like petroleum and coal, which have become cheaper amid sanctions. Settlement with the yuan also has gained wider use in bilateral trade. Click here to read... [4]

Carbon Trading Opens Loophole in Paris Climate Accord

When the South American nation of Guyana wanted to sell millions of carbon-offset credits to preserve its rainforests, government officials knew they had a problem: The country’s lush Amazonian forests were actually in good shape. Guyana’s rate of deforestation was already low, meaning its forests wouldn’t yield much under standard methodologies for calculating carbon credits. So its government chose a new method that allows a large adjustment for countries with healthy forests. The change raised the credits that Guyana could issue sixfold. Guyana sold 37.5 million of them last year to U.S. oil giant Hess for at least $750 million, and is now shopping the remaining two thirds to countries facing pressure to comply with the landmark Paris climate accord, officials say. That agreement calls for governments to adopt national plans to limit greenhouse-gas emissions and allows them to pay for emission-reduction projects elsewhere in the world to offset their own pollution. Credits for each ton of emissions cut can then be traded between countries. It is as if the emission reduction happened in the country buying the credit, not the one selling it. Guyana is among the first in a long line of developing-world countries expected to cash in on credits compliant with United Nations agreements. Some officials worry the U.N. risks giving its seal of approval to credits for forests that aren’t under threat. Click here to read... [5]

ASEAN, Japan, China, South Korea to launch funding for future disasters

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus Japan, China and South Korea agreed Dec 07 to launch an emergency financing program to deal with future pandemics and natural disasters, in their latest attempt to ensure financial stability in the region. The envisaged launch of the Rapid Financing Facility comes as the ASEAN+3 group is seeking to boost the safety net under the Chiang Mai Initiative, created in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, to provide liquidity of up to $240 billion in times of emergency. The agreement was reached at a meeting of senior finance officials from the group held in Kanazawa, Ishikawa prefecture, in central Japan. After details are worked out, finance ministers and central bank governors from the group are expected to formally endorse it next spring. "Under the new facility, member nations can swiftly secure funds of up to half of what is allowed under the (Chiang Mai Initiative) without conditionality when an emergency funding need arises due to exogenous shocks such as natural disasters and pandemics," said Masato Kanda, vice finance minister for international affairs. "As we've seen in Indonesia and the Philippines recently, this region is very much prone to natural disasters, and this kind of program is needed," Kanda told reporters. Click here to read... [6]

Top US trade envoy says Taiwan won’t get a free trade deal with new market access or reduced tariffs

Washington’s top trade envoy on Dec 07 offered a reality check for her counterpart from Taipei, ruling out a 90s-style free trade agreement with the island. The message came just days after John Deng, Taiwan’s top trade negotiator, stated a wish to broaden the two sides’ initial bilateral trade pact to something that looked more like an FTA. “Do you mean the traditional kind of US approach to a very, very comprehensive maximally liberalising, aggressively liberalising agreement?” responded US Trade Representative Katherine Tai when asked about finalising a free-trade agreement with Taiwan during an event hosted by the Aspen Institute in Washington. “We’re not doing that with anybody right now.” Last week, Deng revealed in an interview that Taiwan was in talks with the US about expanding the scope of a trade agreement that the two sides reached in June. “One goal is to expand the coverage, more topics like agriculture, labour,” said Deng. “Second is the market access issue that is tariffs. We hope that one day the US government is ready for tariff talk,” he added, referring to a Taiwanese hope of reducing tariffs and gaining new market access. Tai on Dec 07 said the type of agreement Taiwan sought “may have been fit for the 80s and the 90s”, but that new “innovative” trade policies were needed now. Click here to read... [7]

Oil Demand Will Take a Hit from Yet Another Decline in U.S. Manufacturing

U.S. manufacturing activity has declined for the 13th consecutive month, making this an unusually lengthy downturn. The manufacturing purchasing managers index by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) clocked in at 46.7 (14th percentile for all months since 1980) in November 2023, marking the 13th straight month the index has dipped below the 50-point threshold since November 2022. Reuters has noted that the current prolonged manufacturing downturn is more common during a cycle-ending recession than with a mid-cycle slowdown. But here’s one positive: the downturn has been very mild, with only a very small decline in manufacturing output as well as associated energy consumption. Another big positive: the much-larger services sector has actually seen activity accelerating in the third and fourth quarters after a brief slowdown in the first half of the year. The ISM non-manufacturing index grew to 52.7 (21st percentile) in November, up from 50.3 (11th percentile) in May. The services sector is critical for the economy as a whole because not only is it larger than its manufacturing brethren but it’s also more labor-intensive. Although the strength of the services sector is to partly blame for the inflation rates remaining above the Fed target, it has helped to largely offset a much deeper downturn in manufacturing. Click here to read... [8]

Taliban vow to finish disputed canal at 'any cost'

A massive canal project in Afghanistan has alarmed the country's neighbors over fears it will drain a river key to their agricultural economies, but the ruling Taliban is warning that it will press on at any cost. The fundamentalist Afghan regime inherited the long-stalled project after it retook control of the country two years ago. Since then, it has touted the Qosh Tepa irrigation canal as a signature infrastructure build, aiming to turn some 550,000 hectares of desert into usable farmland. Work on the canal, first conceived in the 1970s, had only started shortly before Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021. But the first phase of the planned 285-kilometer waterway was finished in October as thousands of workers rush to meet a tentative completion date just two years away. That cannot come fast enough for many in Sheberghan, a city in northern Afghanistan where parched fields crack open due to a lack of water, underscoring the country's vulnerability to climate change. The region has little irrigation so farmers rely on snow melting in the mountains to supply water for crops, but years of drought have taken their toll. "Once the canal is completed, we'll all be well off and, of course, happy," said Sheberghan resident Hakim. Click here to read... [9]

AI’s future could be ‘open-source’ or closed. Tech giants are divided as they lobby regulators

Tech leaders have been vocal proponents of the need to regulate artificial intelligence, but they’re also lobbying hard to make sure the new rules work in their favor. That’s not to say they all want the same thing. Facebook parent Meta and IBM on Dec 05 launched a new group called the AI Alliance that’s advocating for an “open science” approach to AI development that puts them at odds with rivals Google, Microsoft and ChatGPT-maker OpenAI. These two diverging camps — the open and the closed — disagree about whether to build AI in a way that makes the underlying technology widely accessible. Safety is at the heart of the debate, but so is who gets to profit from AI’s advances. Open advocates favor an approach that is “not proprietary and closed,” said Darío Gil, a senior vice president at IBM who directs its research division. “So it’s not like a thing that is locked in a barrel and no one knows what they are.” The term “open-source” comes from a decades-old practice of building software in which the code is free or widely accessible for anyone to examine, modify and build upon. Open-source AI involves more than just code and computer scientists differ on how to define it depending on which components of the technology are publicly available and if there are restrictions limiting its use. Click here to read... [10]

China’s push to loosen Mao-era residence rules runs into hurdles

Yang Guang’s rise from a village farmer to an Audi-driving businessman with two properties hinged largely on one of the most coveted documents in China: an urban hukou, or residency permit. The 45-year-old who lives in the central city of Zhengzhou likens the permit - which typically ties a person’s access to health, education, loans and other services to their birthplace - to a “cattle ear-tag the state clipped us with”. “It uses this tag to sort us into different categories of people entitled to different sets of privileges and subjected to different obligations,” he said. When Zhengzhou in the early 2000s temporarily allowed those who bought an apartment to also qualify for a city hukou, Yang seized the opportunity, allowing him to register a business and open stores across Henan province’s capital, transforming his fortunes. In recent months, Chinese authorities have fanned hopes among some economists that the internal passport system that has largely tethered people’s destinies to their place of origin since the 1950s may be in its dying days. A distressed property market and sluggish consumption have injected new urgency into a drive to loosen restrictions and grant more people the opportunities that urban registration affords. The Ministry of Public Security in August called on cities with up to 3 million people to abolish hukou, and those with 3-5 million to significantly relax issuance. Click here to read... [11]

Government delays tax hike from 2025 to possibly 2026 in Japan

The government and ruling coalition are further pushing back a planned tax hike needed to pay for a huge defense buildup by at least a year to possibly 2026. In late 2022, the administration of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida approved a five-year defense buildup costing 43 trillion yen ($299 billion). At around the same time, the Kishida Cabinet also agreed to implement increases over a number of years of the personal income tax, corporate tax and cigarette tax to pay for the increased defense spending. But the start was left vague, with wording about “an appropriate time after 2024.” Kishida said in late October that no such tax increase would be implemented in 2024 because of a planned income tax cut that same year. “The only options left are to raise taxes from 2025 for three years or from 2026 for two years,” said Yoichi Miyazawa, panel chair of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s Research Commission on the Tax System, at a Nov. 30 meeting of its executives. However, the government and ruling coalition are now leaning toward not raising taxes in 2025 either, according to several sources. Ruling coalition lawmakers discussing changes in the tax system are working on a plan to put in writing that the tax increases will be made from 2026. Click here to read... [12]

UK publishes emergency bill to allow deportation plan to Rwanda

The UK ruling Conservative party is in disarray after the government published emergency legislation aimed at allowing a controversial deportation scheme to Rwanda to move forward. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s position looked vulnerable on Dec 06 after immigration minister Robert Jenrick resigned due to “strong disagreements with the direction” of the government’s policy on immigration. The “Safety of Rwanda Bill” is designed to overcome a November 15 ruling by the UK Supreme Court that found the government’s proposed scheme to send thousands of asylum seekers and migrants to the East African nation to be unlawful. The draft bill, which deems Rwanda a safe country and is set to be rushed through the House of Commons, bypasses some sections of the Human Rights Act (HRA) and “any other provision or rule of domestic law, and any interpretation of international law by the court or tribunal”. The proposed legislation would also give courts the ability to ignore any injunction from the European Court of Human Rights to block flights. Sunak has promoted the emergency law, saying it allowed the deportation plan to no longer be bogged down in the courts. “Our new landmark emergency legislation will control our borders, deter people taking perilous journeys across the channel [and] end the continuous legal challenges filling our courts,” he wrote on X, formerly Twitter. Click here to read... [13]

Kim Jong Un Urges Women to Be Good Comrades—and Give Birth

Kim Jong Un has a new mission for North Korean women: Have more babies. Kim acknowledged the impoverished nation’s plunging birthrate for the first time publicly at a rare National Conference of Mothers. Wiping away tears, the 39-year-old dictator, who is a father of three, described mothers as revolutionaries who were on the front lines of rooting out antisocialist behavior and helping the nation prosper. Households producing “many children” would be given higher priority for housing, food and medical services, as well as unspecified subsidies and preferential treatment, Kim said, according to a Dec 05 state-media report. “When all mothers clearly understand that it is patriotism to give birth to many children and do so positively,” Kim said, “our cause of building a powerful socialist country can be hastened faster.” Declining birthrates are a problem for many of the world’s wealthiest countries, including the U.S., much of Western Europe and Asia’s most advanced economies. The trend threatens labor forces and government budgets as populations get older and leave fewer working-age people to spur economic growth. But North Korea’s birthrate—a snapshot of the average number of babies a woman would have over her lifetime—is unusually low for a poor country, standing at 1.6, according to South Korean estimates. That is about half the rate of African countries with a similar economic profile. Click here to read... [14]

US dominating global arms trade – data

Sales of weapons and military services by the world’s top 100 arms makers totaled $597 billion last year, according to a report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on Dec 04. US firms continued to dominate the market despite seeing their overall revenues fall, according to the watchdog. The combined figure for the top 100 arms companies marked a year-on-year decline of 3.5%, but was still 14% higher than the total recorded in 2015. US firms saw a combined decline of 7.9% to $302 billion, but still accounted for 51% of total arms revenue in 2022, with 42 American companies represented among the world’s top 100. The revenues of the 26 European weapons makers in the rankings saw a slight increase of 0.9% to $121 billion. According to SIPRI, the global decrease was mainly due to diminished revenues among major weapons producers in the US, where the sector struggled with “supply chain issues and labor shortages” related to the coronavirus pandemic. SIPRI highlighted that global weapons production has lagged behind demand, which sharply increased last year due to the Ukraine conflict and global geopolitical tensions. Moreover, numerous countries placed orders for weapons and military services at the end of 2022, the revenue from which is only expected to be reflected in company accounts in two to three years’ time. Click here to read... [15]

US, Mexico to cooperate on strengthening security screening of investments

The US Treasury on Dec 07 said it signed an agreement with Mexico’s finance ministry to cooperate on strengthening screening of foreign investments to enhance national security, including regularly sharing information on best practices. The Biden administration is promoting Mexico as a premier investment destination for US supply chains and wants to ensure that the country has a robust screening regime in place to handle the influx. The effort is aimed at helping Mexico develop a screening body similar to the Treasury-run Committee on Foreign Investment the US (CFIUS), which reviews purchases of American companies by foreign-owned entities and other inbound investments. “Like our own investment screening regime, CFIUS, increased engagement with Mexico will help maintain an open investment climate while monitoring and addressing security risks, making both our countries safer,” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in announcing the memorandum of intent with Mexican Finance Minister Rogelio Ramirez de la O. Yellen wraps up a three-day visit to Mexico City to enhance economic ties and boost cooperation to stem the flow of the deadly opioid fentanyl to the United States via Mexico, where precursor chemicals from China are often mixed. Ramirez also asked for help in fighting the flow of weapons from the United States into Mexico. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

US to Deploy Anti-Ship Missiles on Subs in 2024 to Counter China

The US Navy plans to begin arming submarines next year with ship-targeting versions of the widely used Tomahawk missile, part of Washington’s push to ramp up military capabilities to challenge Chinese maritime forces, particularly around Taiwan. The “Maritime Strike” version of the Tomahawk, the RTX Corp. missile traditionally used as a ground-attack weapon, will be fielded after Oct. 1, program manager Captain Jon Hersey said in a statement. The latest models will be modified with a new guidance system enabling them to “to engage a mobile target at sea,” he said, adding the Navy took delivery of the initial version last year for tests before declaring it combat ready. Fielding the new version of the Tomahawk — which made its battlefield debut in the early hours of the 1991 Persian Gulf War in Iraq —- would add to a growing US arsenal of ship-attack missiles to complement submarine-launched torpedoes intended to counter China’s numerically superior fleet. While the Navy also plans to start fielding the weapons on surface vessels, those are more vulnerable to China’s land- and sea-based anti-ship arsenal. Taiwan, which China claims as its sovereign territory, is of particular interest for Washington and sees defending the island — and its crucial semiconductor industry — as a strategic, economic and political priority. Click here to read... [17]

China’s next-gen air missile could decide a Taiwan war

China has showcased its J-16 fighters armed with the PL-17 missile, a weaponry upgrade that significantly enhances the aircraft’s fighting power while reflecting a broader shift in China’s global air warfare posture. A photo released by China shows J-16 Flanker derivatives equipped with various air-to-air missiles including the long-range PL-17, also known as PL-XX or PL-20, The Warzone reported. The missile was shown in a formation of four J-16 jets, each carrying a mix of missiles spanning short to very long-range engagement capabilities. The Warzone report notes that the PL-17 is known for its unprecedented reach, significantly enhancing the J-16’s operational capacity. The PL-17 is a long-range beyond visual range (BVR) missile for critical aerial targets such as aerial tankers and airborne warning and control system aircraft (AWACS). While the Warzone mentions that the PL-17 was first observed seven years before the article’s publication, the missile type has been the subject of ongoing analysis. It is widely considered a successor to the PL-12 and is intended primarily for targeting high-value assets like tankers and airborne early-warning aircraft. The missile, which is significantly larger than the PL-15, measures almost 20 feet in length, is equipped with a dual-pulse rocket motor, four small tail fins, thrust-vectoring controls and can reach speeds of at least Mach 4. Click here to read... [18]

Europe Faces New Terrorism Threat Fueled by Israel-Hamas War

Europe’s security services are confronting a resurgence of terrorism threats, in a sign of how fallout from the Israel-Hamas war is rippling across the West. Radicals pledging allegiance to Islamic State have carried out three attacks on European soil—killing two people in France and one in Belgium—since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas militants spurred Israel’s bombing campaign and ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. Images of the war—beamed to screens across the continent and flooding social media—are stirring Islamist radicals to lash out, European officials say, sometimes with deadly effect. “The danger is real and as high as it’s been for a long time,” Thomas Haldenwang, president of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, said last week. The threat has morphed since 2015 and 2016, when Islamic State operatives trained in Syria killed more than 150 people in a series of attacks in Paris and Brussels. Now security services are worried about lone-wolf attackers who operate without the support of known terror groups. That makes them less lethal but also harder to detect. Governments have stepped up security at borders and sensitive targets, in particular Jewish institutions. Some governments are aiming to intensify surveillance of extremists, a major task given the large number of people in Europe who are on terrorism watch lists. Click here to read... [19]

Israel Weighs Plan to Flood Gaza Tunnels With Seawater

Israel has assembled a system of large pumps it could use to flood Hamas’s vast network of tunnels under the Gaza Strip with seawater, a tactic that could destroy the tunnels and drive the fighters from their underground refuge but also threaten Gaza’s water supply, U.S. officials said. The Israel Defense Forces finished assembling large seawater pumps roughly one mile north of the Al-Shati refugee camp around the middle of last month. Each of at least five pumps can draw water from the Mediterranean Sea and move thousands of cubic meters of water per hour into the tunnels, flooding them within weeks. Israel first informed the U.S. of the option early last month, prompting a discussion weighing its feasibility and effect on the environment against the military value of disabling the tunnels, officials said. U.S. officials said they didn’t know how close the Israeli government was to carrying out the plan. Israel hasn’t made a final decision to move ahead, nor has it ruled the plan out, officials said. Sentiment inside the U.S. was mixed. Some U.S. officials privately expressed concern about the plan, while other officials said the U.S. supports the disabling of the tunnels and said there wasn’t necessarily any U.S. opposition to the plan. Click here to read... [20]

Israel Says It Has Killed Half of Hamas’s Battalion Commanders

Israel said it has killed about half of Hamas’s midlevel commanders in Gaza and is pressing on the suspected hiding place of the group’s leader, deploying a deliberate strategy to disrupt the militants’ ability to fight in the enclave. Israel has so far failed to assassinate the U.S.-designated terrorist group’s senior leadership, which includes Yahya Sinwar, leader of Hamas in Gaza, and Mohammed Deif, head of the group’s armed wing. But fighting is now coalescing around Khan Younis, one of Hamas’s strongholds in the southern strip, where the Israeli military says Sinwar and others could be hunkered down. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Dec 06 that his troops had surrounded Sinwar’s house in Khan Younis. The move is largely viewed as symbolic as the Israeli military assesses if the Hamas militant is hiding underground in the group’s tunnel network. But it proves “our forces can reach anywhere in the Gaza Strip,” Netanyahu said. The structure of Hamas’s secretive armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, isn’t widely known. But Israel estimates that it has roughly 24 battalions each with 1,000 or more fighters. The Israeli military, which on Dec 06 engaged in intense fighting in the north and south of Gaza, has said it has significantly degraded at least 10 of those by taking out midlevel commanders. Click here to read... [21]

Corruption trial of Israeli PM Netanyahu resumes

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to face the resumption of his long-running trial on numerous corruption charges, after a pause due to the war in Gaza. A court in Jerusalem is set to start hearing the case, which is focused on several corruption charges against Netanyahu, on Dec 04, according to reports in the Israeli media. The trial was paused on an emergency order from the country’s justice minister following Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7. Netanyahu has been charged with fraud, bribery and breach of trust in three cases filed in 2019, known as Case 1000, 2000 and 4000. In Case 1000, the prime minister, along with his wife Sara, is accused of receiving gifts, including champagne and cigars, from prominent Hollywood producer Arnon Milchan and Australian billionaire businessman James Packer in return for political favours. Bribery charges carry a sentence of up to 10 years in jail and/or a fine. Fraud and breach of trust carry a prison sentence of up to three years. Israel’s longest-serving prime minister has denied any wrongdoing. He claims to be the victim of a politically orchestrated “witch-hunt” by rivals and the media to remove him from office. The trial got under way in May 2020 and has been repeatedly delayed over defence and prosecution disputes and the COVID-19 pandemic. Click here to read... [22]

Saudis Ask U.S. for Restraint As Houthis Direct Missiles At Israel

As Yemen’s Houthis continue to target vessels in the Red Sea, and claimed on Dec 06 to have launched missiles directly at Israel, Saudi Arabia is calling on the U.S. to show restraint as U.S. naval forces respond to Houthi attacks. On Dec 06, the Houthis launched “several” ballistic missiles at Israeli military posts in the city of Eilat, Reuters reports, citing a Houthi spokesperson. That statement followed the U.S. Navy’s shooting down of a Houthi drone earlier in the day. Analysts seem to be of the opinion that the Saudis are calling for restraint in order to avoid further escalation as this vital oil shipping route comes under attack. The calls for restraint follow an incident on Dec 03 in which three commercial ships were attacked by Houthis in international waters. The Houthis claimed the vessels had connections to Israel, which the Israelis have denied. The U.S. Navy shot down three Houthi drones when the vessels came under attack. Vaguely, the Pentagon has simply said if it decides to take more direct action against the Houthis, it will be “at a time and place” of its own choosing, apparently referring to the Saudi call for restraint. The Houthis pose a significant threat to commercial shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Click here to read... [23]

Myanmar's escalating conflict displaces 500,000 more people

More than 500,000 people in Myanmar have fled their homes since armed ethnic groups began a major offensive against the military in late October. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported the newest figure on Dec 01, amid concerns of an escalating humanitarian disaster. There were a total of roughly 2 million displaced people in Myanmar in late October, including people uprooted before the military took control of the country in February 2021. The northern part of Shan state, in Myanmar's northeast, has seen the most displaced people since late October, around 82,000. The recent fighting has left an estimated 283 civilians dead nationwide along with 334 injured. Three groups including the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army launched attacks against the military on Oct. 27, mainly in Shan. The fighting -- an escalation of long-running insurgencies -- has spilled into other regions, posing what some see as the biggest threat to the military's hold on power since the regime removed an elected government in February 2021. The military has responded with waves of attacks in multiple areas, using fighter jets and other heavy firepower. The People's Defense Forces, an armed resistance group formed by the National Unity Government, is also on the offensive, which could bring more civilian displacements and casualties. Click here to read... [24]

Xi seeks to defuse China-EU tensions over trade imbalance

Chinese President Xi Jinping met leaders of two top European Union institutions on Dec 07, aiming to smooth over relations after Brussels warned that it has "tools" to correct a chronic trade imbalance. The visit to Beijing by Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and Charles Michel, head of the European Council, comes as China increasingly relies on European countries to absorb a glut of industrial output as its own economy slows. Amid growing discomfort in Europe over ties with China more generally, Italy is understood to have formally submitted a plan in recent days to withdraw from Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative. "China and the EU should be partners for mutually beneficial cooperation," Xi told the European leaders, according to China's state news agency Xinhua. He called for stepping up dialogue to strengthen trust. The meeting marked the first in-person EU-China summit since 2019, according to the European Council. Before departing for Beijing, von der Leyen had set the tone by stressing, "We have tools to protect our market." Europe blames the trade gap partly on the difficulty its companies face in gaining access to the Chinese market. China's trade surplus with the EU reached $201 billion in the first 11 months of this year, data released by the Chinese customs office showed on Dec 07. Click here to read... [25]

Russia's Putin says he will run for president again in 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Dec 08 told soldiers who had fought in the Ukraine war that he would run for president again in the 2024 election, a move that will allow the former KGB spy to stay in power until at least 2030. Putin, who was handed the presidency by Boris Yeltsin on the last day of 1999, has already served as president for longer than any other ruler of Russia since Josef Stalin, beating even Leonid Brezhnev's 18-year tenure. After Putin awarded the Ukraine war veterans with Russia's highest military honor, the Hero of Russia gold star, Artyom Zhoga, a lieutenant colonel born in Soviet-era Ukraine who fights for Russia, asked the president to run again. "I will not hide that I have had different thoughts at different times, but it is now time to make a decision," Putin told Zhoga and the other decorated soldiers. "I understand that there is no other way." "I will run for the post of president," Putin was shown in television footage saying in the gilded Georgievsky Hall, part of the Grand Kremlin Palace. Zhoga told reporters afterward that he was very glad Putin had assented to the request, adding that all of Russia would support the decision. Reuters reported last month that Putin had decided to run. Click here to read... [26]

U.S. blocks U.N. Security Council demand for cease-fire in Gaza

The United States on Dec 08 vetoed a Security Council demand for an immediate humanitarian cease-fire in the war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza, diplomatically isolating Washington as it shields its ally. Thirteen Security Council members voted in favor of a brief draft resolution, put forward by the United Arab Emirates, while Britain abstained. The vote came after U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres made a rare move on Dec 06 to formally warn the 15-member council of a global threat from the two-month-long war. "It's not an issue about isolation. It's an issue about what we think is best to try to end this conflict as soon as possible and also to help facilitate more humanitarian assistance going into Gaza," Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Robert Wood told reporters ahead of the vote. "We can't just snap our fingers and the conflict stops. This is a very, very difficult situation," he said. The United States and Israel oppose a cease-fire because they believe it would only benefit Hamas. Washington instead supports pauses in fighting to protect civilians and allow the release of hostages taken by Hamas in a deadly Oct. 7 attack on Israel. A seven-day pause -- that saw Hamas release some hostages and an increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza -- ended on Dec. 1. Click here to read... [27]

UN secretary-general invokes Article 99 on Gaza

The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has invoked Article 99 of the UN Charter, urging the UN Security Council to act on the war in Gaza. The rare move on Dec 06 comes as the 15-member Security Council is yet to adopt a resolution calling for a ceasefire between Israel, Hamas and their allies. Article 99 allows the secretary-general to “bring to the attention of the Security Council any matter which in his opinion may threaten the maintenance of international peace and security”. In his letter to the council’s president, Guterres invoked this responsibility, saying he believed the situation in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories, “may aggravate existing threats to the maintenance of international peace and security”. Guterres – who has been calling for an “immediate humanitarian ceasefire” since October 18 – also described “appalling human suffering, physical destruction and collective trauma across Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories”. Article 99 is a special power – and the only independent political tool given to the secretary-general in the UN Charter – that allows him to call a meeting of the Security Council on his own initiative to issue warnings about new threats to international peace and security, and matters that are not yet on the council’s agenda. Click here to read... [28]

Putin makes rare trip to Middle East to meet with UAE and Saudi leaders

Escorted by four fighter jets, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a rare one-day lightning tour to the Middle East during which he visited Saudi Arabia after a short trip to the United Arab Emirates. Putin landed on Dec 06 in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the UAE, which is hosting the United Nations COP28 climate talks. He was escorted to the presidential palace, where he was greeted with a 21-gun salute and a flyby of UAE military jets trailing smoke in the colours of the Russian flag. The Gulf nation’s President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan called Putin his “dear friend”. “I am happy to meet you again,” Sheikh Mohammed said. He later issued a statement saying they discussed “the importance of strengthening dialogue and cooperation to ensure stability and progress”. The Russian leader echoed those sentiments. “Our relations, largely due to your position, have reached an unprecedentedly high level,” Putin told Sheikh Mohammed. “The UAE is Russia’s main trading partner in the Arab world.” The meeting was part of Russia’s quest to stake out a more influential role in the Middle East, with oil cooperation and the Israel-Hamas war on the agenda. The two leaders discussed, among other things, bilateral cooperation in the energy industry and advanced technologies, according to Russia’s state-owned TASS news agency. Click here to read... [29]

Chad, Mauritania pave way for dissolution of G5 Sahel alliance

The two remaining members of West Africa’s G5 Sahel alliance on Dec 06 said they were paving the way to dissolving the anti-rebel grouping after the other three founding countries left. In a joint statement, Chad and Mauritania said they “take note and respect the sovereign decision” of Burkina Faso and Niger to leave the alliance, following in the footsteps of Mali, which quit in 2022. They “will implement all necessary measures in accordance with the G5 founding convention, notably Article 20,” the statement added. The article says the alliance can be dissolved at the request of at least three member states. The alliance, which included Mauritania, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, was created in 2014, with a counterinsurgency force added in 2017, backed by France. On Dec 02, Burkina Faso and Niger said they were withdrawing from the alliance. “The organisation is failing to achieve its objectives,” they said. “Worse, the legitimate ambitions of our countries, of making the G5 Sahel a zone of security and development, are hindered by institutional red tape from a previous era, which convinces us that our process of independence and dignity is not compatible with G5 participation in its current form.” In announcing their withdrawal on Dec 02, the military leaders of Burkina and Niger did not explicitly call for its dissolution. Click here to read... [30]

Kishida to ditch members of Abe faction in slush fund scandal

Embattled Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to remove four senior members of the Abe faction from Cabinet and ruling party posts over suspicions they took off-the-book funds generated from fund-raising parties, government sources said. The four are Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno; Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura; Koichi Hagiuda, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party’s Policy Research Council; and Tsuyoshi Takagi, chairman of the LDP’s Diet Affairs Committee. Kishida will also consider replacing Hiroshige Seko, secretary-general of the LDP’s Upper House caucus, who has also been linked to the scandal, the sources said. The Kishida administration, while maintaining a balance among the party’s factions, has relied heavily on the Abe faction, the largest bloc that was headed by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe until his murder last year and still uses his name. Matsuno, Nishimura, Hagiuda, Takagi and Seko, who all sit on a 15-member executive board that now leads the faction, are collectively referred to as its “goninshu” (five future leaders). Ousting all five heavyweight lawmakers from their government and party posts would deal a heavy blow to the Kishida administration. Kishida will soon carry out a de facto reshuffle of his Cabinet and the LDP leadership, the sources said. The prime minister had initially hoped to see what action investigative authorities would take before dealing with the issue. Click here to read... [31]

Health

Workers leaving nursing care outpace new hires for 1st time in Japan

Chronically low wages led to a net loss of nursing care workers in 2022 for the first time since 2009, when comparable record-keeping began, labor ministry data showed. Those leaving the nursing care field outpaced newcomers to the sector by 1.6 percentage points last year. The trend is bad news for Japan’s rapidly aging population. The sector will need an estimated 2.8 million workers in fiscal 2040, when Japan’s elderly population is expected to peak. That’s an increase of 690,000 from fiscal 2019, according to the ministry. However, care providers are struggling to find workers willing to accept the low pay. In the annual “shunto” wage negotiations in March, employees in private business sectors gained a 3.58 percent average increase in pay, the largest in three decades. But for the nursing care industry, the wage hike barely reached 1.42 percent. Inflation has exceeded wage increases for care workers because official fees for nursing care services are revised only every three years. The monthly wage gap between the nursing care sector and the national average, which is already close to 70,000 yen ($476), is expected to widen. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government has pledged to provide every care worker an extra 6,000 yen a month, starting in February. Click here to read... [32]

Israel and WHO in online row over removal of medical supplies in Gaza

An online row has emerged between the World Health Organization (WHO) and Israel after the United Nations health body said the Israeli army ordered it to remove supplies from its warehouse in southern Gaza, a claim Israel then denied. The “WHO received notification” from the Israeli forces “that we should remove our supplies from our medical warehouse in southern Gaza within 24 hours, as ground operations will put it beyond use”, its chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a post on X on Dec 04. He appealed to Israel to withdraw the order and take measures to protect infrastructure such as hospitals. The Israeli army snapped back on Dec 05, saying it never issued such a warning. “The truth is that we didn’t ask you to evacuate the warehouses and we also made it clear [and in writing] to the relevant UN representatives,” COGAT, the Israeli defence ministry body responsible for Palestinian civilian affairs, said on X. “From a UN official we would expect, at least, to be more accurate,” it added. “This is a social media row that is burning up and we can expect that it will continue to rumble on,” said Al Jazeera’s Alan Fisher, reporting from occupied East Jerusalem. Click here to read... [33]