Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (27 November- 03 December 2023)

Economic

Saudi Arabia Offers Iran Investment to Blunt Gaza War

Saudi Arabia has approached Iran with an offer to boost cooperation and invest in its sanctions-stricken economy if the Islamic Republic stops its regional proxies from turning the Israel-Hamas war into a wider conflict. The proposal has been delivered directly and through multiple means since Hamas’s attack on Israel last month and the ensuing war in Gaza, according to Arab and Western officials familiar with the matter. The possibility of a deeper engagement also came up in the encounter between Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman during a summit in Riyadh this month to address the war, said the people, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks. Raisi was among the first leaders that MBS, as the crown prince is known, spoke with after the Hamas attack. Alongside its conciliatory outreach, Saudi Arabia is pursuing another track. US Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf said Washington is working with Saudi Arabia and its other Arab allies to stop Tehran “weaponizing” the conflict to strengthen its so-called axis of resistance, which encompasses armed groups from Lebanon and Palestinian territories to Iraq, Syria and Yemen. A Saudi Foreign Ministry official and a spokesperson for the Saudi Embassy in Washington didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Click here to read… [2]

OPEC+ Headed for 2 Million Bpd Oil Output Cut in 2024

As the meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) began on Nov 30, delegates are telling media that OPEC+ could be discussing deeper oil production cuts for the first quarter of 2024 and that total cuts could be close to 2 million barrels per day (bpd). Total OPEC+ cuts could approach 2 million bpd, depending on the willingness of the countries to contribute, according to delegates, commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo reported as the JMMC meeting began. The figure includes a rollover of the Saudi and Russian cuts of a total of 1.3 million bpd. The meeting of the OPEC+ monitoring panel will be followed by a full online OPEC+ meeting at which all decisions will be taken. “There’s a lot of confidence that OPEC plus will conclude a deal that leads to a deeper cut,” Amena Bakr, Chief Opec Correspondent and Deputy Bureau Chief at Energy Intelligence, reported, but noted that it’s still not clear what the final number would look like. Oil prices extended gains on the reports of deeper cuts next year and were trading 1.5% higher less than half an hour before the full OPEC+ meeting was set to begin. Earlier today, sources close to the Saudi delegation told the Financial Times that Saudi Arabia, the leader of OPEC and its top producer, has won provisional approval for additional cuts, to which other OPEC+ members will contribute, too. Click here to read… [3]

House Speaker Johnson Drops China Investment Curbs From Defense Bill

Speaker Mike Johnson rejected bipartisan efforts to use a must-pass defense bill to tighten controls on US investment in Chinese technology, tasking several of his chairmen instead with resolving their differences on the matter by early next year, people familiar with the decision said. The decision is a severe blow to efforts to require firms to notify the government about certain investments in China and other countries of concern. The language, which has bipartisan backing, aligns with an executive order by President Joe Biden to curb spending on high-tech sectors in the world’s second-largest economy. The so-called outbound investment issue has pitted House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry, who opposes the language, against Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul and China select committee Chairman Mike Gallagher, opening a Republican fracture over China. Congressional leaders plan to release the compromise defense authorization bill, known as the NDAA, on Dec 04. “Outbound investment is not going anywhere in the NDAA, but we know we have to do something on this,” said Andy Barr of Kentucky, a senior Financial Services Committee member. “We know that it’s a national security imperative. We also know that we’ve got to be careful and thoughtful about it so that we don’t unduly impair US competitiveness.” Click here to read… [4]

U.S. Destroyer, Commercial Vessels Attacked by Drones, Missiles in Red Sea

A U.S. destroyer and three commercial ships operating in the Red Sea came under drone and ballistic-missile attacks, the Pentagon said Dec 03, marking the most significant escalation of a weekslong military attack on ships operating in those waters. In two instances on Dec 03, the USS Carney, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, came under attack, including while responding to distress calls from nearby commercial ships that faced missile attacks, the Pentagon said. The Carney also shot down a drone that flew nearby. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen claimed responsibility for the attacks, and the Pentagon warned Dec 03 that they could be met with a U.S. response—and pointed part of the blame at Iran. “These attacks represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security. They have jeopardized the lives of international crews representing multiple countries around the world. We also have every reason to believe that these attacks, while launched by the Houthis in Yemen, are fully enabled by Iran,” U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East said in a written statement. “The United States will consider all appropriate responses in full coordination with its international allies and partners.” Click here to read… [5]

U.S. and China butt heads over investment in Southeast Asia

Foreign direct investment in Southeast Asia is growing rapidly as U.S. and Chinese businesses are lured in by countries' political stability and large markets. The region's strategic role as a buffer zone amid intensifying U.S.-China competition also helps attract investment from around the world, with foreign investment reaching a record $222.5 billion in 2022. "Vietnam shows promise as a partner in ensuring the semiconductor supply chain is diverse and resilient," the U.S. Department of State said in a statement after President Joe Biden visited the nation in September. As if in response, such U.S. companies as Marvell Technology and Synopsys have expressed eagerness to invest in Vietnam. Amkor Technology already has opened a semiconductor plant in the northern province of Bac Ninh in October. Built at a cost of $1.6 billion, the facility is designed to become the U.S. company's biggest manufacturing base in the world, creating about 10,000 jobs. In July, Malaysia said the major Chinese carmaker Zhejiang Geely Holding Group would invest $10 billion in the western state of Perak to set up an automobile production base. The company is also considering building an electric vehicle plant in Thailand. U.S. and Chinese companies are also buying up businesses in Southeast Asia. Click here to read… [6]

China pushes banks to set private-sector lending targets

Chinese regulators on Nov 27 called on banks to set yearly targets for lending to the private sector, with the aim of encouraging investment and hiring among China's biggest employers. The People's Bank of China, the central bank, joined seven government bodies in issuing a notice with 25 measures to support the private economy. Banks should also give more weight to private-sector lending as a criteria for evaluating branches and employees, according to the notice. The financial support applies to a wide range of private-sector businesses regardless of industry, but the notice specifically mentions the property sector, which has struggled to secure financing. The notice says banks should "reasonably meet the financial needs of private real estate enterprises" in keeping with a set of measures issued last fall which sought to encourage repayment extensions for housing project loans. The Chinese government is drafting a list of 50 property developers eligible for funding support, including cash-strapped industry leader Country Garden Holdings, Bloomberg reports. A global default arbiter determined last month that Country Garden had failed to meet its obligation on a dollar-denominated bond. In China, private businesses are often crowded out by state-owned enterprises, giving rise to the phrase guo jin min tui -- "the state advances, the private sector retreats." Click here to read… [7]

China’s top spy agency vows to safeguard critical minerals, slams Western tech containment

China’s anti-spy agency has put safeguarding of the country’s supplies of critical minerals as among its top tasks, accusing the West of trying to contain China’s development. “Critical mineral resources are the important basis for serving the development of new industries. They are the top priority for resource security,” the Ministry of State Security said in a post on its official social media account on Thursday. “[Some Western countries] have built ‘small yards and high fences’ to gain access to critical mineral resources by any means, thus seriously impeding the process of globalisation,” it said, referring to sanctions. The WeChat post listed lithium, gallium, germanium and rare earths as precious mineral resources – saying they had fuelled the development of strategic new industries, such as new energy, semiconductors, artificial intelligence and aerospace. “Strategic critical minerals have become an important engine for speeding up the building of a modern industrial system and promoting high-quality economic development, which is directly related to national security,” it said. The post comes months after China ordered export restrictions on gallium and germanium, important metals used in semiconductor manufacturing, and several of their compounds, in retaliation against Western sanctions on its chip industry. From August, exporters of these elements in China need to apply for permission from the Ministry of Commerce, with information about the end users and how the materials would be used. Click here to read… [8]

Vietnam to raise tax rate for multinationals from 2024

Vietnam's parliament approved a top-up tax for multinational corporations on Nov 29, setting the effective corporate tax minimum at 15% starting in January. The rate hike, which is in line with a global agreement, would generate hundreds of millions of dollars of additional revenue annually. However, experts say the country should improve its logistics infrastructure and administrative procedures to remain an attractive investment destination for foreign businesses. As a regional manufacturing hub that offers relatively low-cost labor, Vietnam has attracted foreign investments in electronics, garments and other sectors, with the trend growing in recent years as global companies move production out of China. Multinationals have created jobs, helping develop the industry in Vietnam. Vietnam has been offering tax incentives to multinational corporations to attract capital. Even though the government has an official corporate income tax of 20%, it has given foreign investors breaks, which has made the actual rate lower. In some cases, corporate taxes are below 3%. The approval of the top-up tax -- which would fill the gap between effective rates and the minimum rate -- was made in line with an initiative by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development starting in 2024. Under the global agreement, companies paying less than 15% in low-tax jurisdictions will face a top-up levy, either in those jurisdictions or in their home countries, from next year. Click here to read… [9]

Middle East funds prop up Hong Kong market as others retreat

Middle East sovereign wealth funds are becoming increasingly active in Hong Kong's stock market after it tumbled to its lowest level in two decades amid growing investor concerns about the deteriorating relationship between the West and China. Sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar have participated as seed investors in the listings of Chinese companies this year. On Nov 29, a new $1 billion exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking Saudi equities listed in Hong Kong, with Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) as anchor investor. Such moves follow efforts by Hong Kong's officials to draw new money in as some Western backers pull out. But for the lead investor in the ETF, the first such asset in Asia, PIF hopes also to increase global inflow into Saudi markets, said Yazeed Al-Humied, deputy governor of the $700 billion fund, at Nov 29's listing ceremony. The relationship so far has been mutually beneficial. The head of the Hong-Kong based investment banking arm of a top Chinese bank said: "To them [the Middle Eastern investors], as some foreign capital withdraws from China, it's good timing to get a good price for China assets. ... We always tell Middle Eastern investors this is the best timing to allocate to China." Click here to read… [10]

Survey: Wage increase rate hits the highest since 1999 in Japan

The average wage increase rate per worker for 2023 was 3.2 percent, the highest since the current survey method began in 1999, according to a survey released by the labor ministry on Nov. 28. The rate rose by 1.3 points from the previous year. The survey included companies that do not have labor unions, revealing that wage increases are spreading even in businesses where wage negotiations with labor unions are not an option. The labor ministry conducted the survey among companies with 100 or more regular workers from July to August, with 1,901 companies responding. The ministry estimates that around 80 percent of the companies who responded do not have labor unions. For the first time, the wage increase rate reached the 3 percent range. The actual increase amount was 9,437 yen ($64) in average, up 3,903 yen from the previous year. Large companies with 5,000 or more regular workers had a wage increase rate of 4 percent. Small and midsize companies with 100 to 299 employees, of which an estimated 90 percent do not have labor unions, saw a 2.9 percent wage increase rate. This was a significant jump of 1 point from the previous year. The average wage increase rate in this year’s spring “shunto” wage negotiations between Japanese companies and their labor unions was 3.6 percent, according to the ministry. Click here to read… [11]

The Concerning Energy Cost of Artificial Intelligence

As the world welcomes innovative technologies, they could spur a sharp spike in energy consumption if not regulated appropriately. A wide range of industries, including the energy sector, is looking to artificial intelligence (AI) to modernize operations. However, many are not considering the potential energy costs of adopting AI and other innovative technologies. Just as we’ve seen with cryptocurrency mining, the use of new, advanced technologies is expected to significantly drive up energy usage across different industries, and a lack of management could lead to disaster. There have been great advances in AI technology in recent years, leading many companies to adopt the technology and many individuals to gain a better understanding of it. It is quickly becoming an essential tool in everyday life, as it is used for a range of activities that we may not even consider. Checking into a flight, conducting a Google search, or using cruise control all rely on AI. For companies, the use of AI technology can optimize operations through smart decision-making and automation. It minimizes human error and typically drives up efficiency. It’s for this reason that so many companies are investing in the technology. Each online interaction requires the use of remote servers – machines in data centers that use electricity to carry out operations. Click here to read… [12]

Chinese Refiners Invest Billions in Chemicals Used by the Renewables Industry

China’s oil refining giants have invested billions of U.S. dollars in recent years to boost production of chemicals used in components for the renewable energy industry. For example, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec, the top Chinese oil refiner, has invested in increased production of ethylene-vinyl acetate (EVA) and polyolefin elastomer (POE), Bloomberg reports. EVA and POE are increasingly used in solar cell manufacturing and with the Chinese boom in solar power capacity installations, refiners are eager to tap into the soaring market. China’s installed solar capacity is expected to top 1 terawatt (TW) by the end of 2026, doubling from the expected capacity of 500 gigawatts (GW) at the end of this year, according to estimates from Rystad Energy. While it will have taken China 13 years to reach 500 GW of solar capacity, it will only need three more years to double it, the energy research firm said earlier this year. With chemicals such as ethylene-vinyl acetate and polyolefin elastomer finding new applications in the solar cell manufacturing industry, Chinese refiners want to boost revenues from the surging clean energy manufacturing as the margins for those products are very high. “EVA and POE are currently the most profitable products on ethylene lines,” Teng Xiaofang, an analyst with industry consultant SCI99, told Bloomberg. Click here to read… [13]

Fertilizer Companies Are Betting on Ammonia as a Low-Carbon Fuel

Ammonia is made by producing hydrogen, then adding nitrogen. It is made in massive volumes globally—the bulk as a building block for fertilizer and the rest for uses ranging from refrigerants for skating rinks to the smelly household cleaning liquids most people are familiar with. While plants benefit from the nitrogen portion of ammonia, the clean-fuel industry is interested in its hydrogen content. Hydrogen, one of the world’s most common elements, can burn like oil, gas or coal but doesn’t emit carbon dioxide when it does, making it a favorite of clean-energy advocates for decades. But hydrogen has drawbacks, too, which have stymied its development as a green fuel. It rarely occurs by itself, and separating it out of compounds such as water or methane—the main ingredient of natural gas—is expensive and takes more energy than the hydrogen delivers when it is used. Pure hydrogen also is extremely hard to transport and store. The atom is so small it tends to seep out of seams and welds in pipes and tanks. It takes up so much space at normal temperatures that the only way to carry it long distances is to compress it or liquefy it at minus 253 degrees Celsius, just above absolute zero. Click here to read… [14]

Flourishing Russia ties help revive North Korea’s ‘paradise’ special economic zone

Once a North Korean experiment in limited capitalism, the Rason Special Economic Zone appears to be the epicentre of the isolated country’s growing cooperation with Russia, experts say, including possible shipments of arms for the war in Ukraine. With flat blocks and booming markets flooded with imported goods, the Rason special zone, established in the 1990s on the border with China and Russia, was a dream destination for many North Koreans before tighter sanctions hit and pandemic-era border closings choked off nearly all trade and tourism, two experts who study Rason said. In recent months, there have been clear signs that the area is poised for a comeback, with ships docking there for the first time since 2018, and satellite imagery suggesting a spike in trade from both the port and a rail line to Russia. Although China – with its vastly larger economy and deeper historic ties with North Korea – might seem the obvious driver of a recovery in Rason, experts say the country’s deepening cooperation with Russia may make a more immediate impact. Even hydrogen supporters say it likely will be decades before the technology develops to transport it around the world, so until then it likely will need to be produced very close to where it is used. Click here to read… [15]

Remote mountain kingdom secretly mining bitcoin – Forbes

Bhutan, a South Asian nation nested in the Himalayas, has secretly developed world’s largest state-owned cryptocurrency mines, Forbes has revealed. According to the magazine’s investigation released last week, the Bhutanese government has quietly spent millions of dollars to build its bitcoin-mining operation. Forbes used satellite imagery from Planet Labs, Satellite Vu, and Google Earth, as well as sources with knowledge of Bhutan's crypto investments to uncover mining units and data center cooling systems hidden in forests and mountainous terrain across the country. Other images reportedly showed high-capacity power lines and transformers running from Bhutan's hydroelectric plants to the mining sites. “Bhutan has been quietly transformed into a crypto Shangri-La with its government dedicating land, funding and energy to operations like these, which it hopes will avert a looming economic crisis,” Forbes wrote. According to the report, the remote mountainous nation, which has an abundance of hydroelectricity, had historically sold its surplus of hydropower to India. However, crypto-mining operations have driven Bhutan's power demand up in recent years. The country has massively boosted imports this year, purchasing $20.7 million worth of electricity so far. Officials recently said this bill would balloon to $72 million over the coming winter, with imports needed for five months to cover demand. Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

Israel Resumes Combat Operations in Gaza as Cease-Fire Stalls

Israel said that it had renewed combat operations in Gaza and that Hamas had fired toward Israeli territory, as a weeklong truce expired early Dec 01 morning. The resumption of fighting came as mediators engaged in intense negotiations with the two sides in which Hamas didn’t provide a list of hostage names needed for the cease-fire extension, Egyptian officials said. An American official said the U.S. remained hopeful that negotiators could renew the truce, an effort that relies on Hamas releasing additional hostages. Hamas said it was facing difficulty obtaining access to four women held hostage by other groups in Gaza, the officials said. The discussions centered in part on American hostages whose release has been withheld because their captors view them as strategic assets that could provide leverage for securing a future cease-fire or other concessions now that fighting has resumed, the officials said. The weeklong pause had enabled the exchange of dozens of hostages held in Gaza for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and permitted shipments of humanitarian aid into the strip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Hamas had violated the deal’s outline. “It has not met its obligation to release all of the women hostages today and has launched rockets at Israeli citizens,” it said in a statement. Click here to read… [17]

Israel Plans to Kill Hamas Leaders Around the World After War

Israel’s intelligence services are preparing to kill Hamas leaders around the world when the nation’s war in the Gaza Strip winds down, setting the stage for a yearslong campaign to hunt down militants responsible for the Oct. 7 massacres, Israeli officials said. With orders from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s top spy agencies are working on plans to hunt down Hamas leaders living in Lebanon, Turkey and Qatar, the small Gulf nation that has allowed the group to run a political office in Doha for a decade, the officials said. The assassination campaign would be an extension of Israel’s decadeslong clandestine operations that have become the subject of both Hollywood legend and worldwide condemnation. Israeli assassins have hunted Palestinian militants in Beirut while dressed as women, and killed a Hamas leader in Dubai while disguised as tourists. Israel has used a car bomb to assassinate a Hezbollah leader in Syria and a remote-controlled rifle to kill a nuclear scientist in Iran, according to former Israeli officials. For years, countries such as Qatar, Lebanon, Iran, Russia and Turkey have provided Hamas, a U.S.-designated terrorist group, with a measure of protection. And Israel has at times refrained from targeting the Palestinian militants to avoid creating diplomatic crises. Click here to read… [18]

Arab Nations Push for UN Action to Open More Gaza Aid Corridors

A group of Arab nations including the United Arab Emirates and Egypt is pushing for new humanitarian corridors to increase the flow of aid to the Gaza Strip, according to people familiar with the matter, an effort that gained new urgency as Israel resumed its bombing campaign after the end of a seven-day truce. With that goal in mind, the UAE plans to introduce a United Nations Security Council resolution in the coming days that would add to the number of entry points into Gaza and create a monitoring system to track how much aid is entering the territory, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Talks are still in the early stages, and the group is considering both land and sea options for the suggested crossing points, the people said. They said the proposal is inspired by a Syria-focused resolution adopted by the Security Council in 2014 that called for the expansion of cross-border aid delivery and the establishment of a UN-led monitoring system. “The humanitarian tragedy in Gaza demands Council action,” UAE Ambassador to the UN Lana Nusseibeh said in response to a request for comment. The amount of aid entering is a fraction of what is needed and it must be urgently increased, 200 trucks a day is nowhere near enough to meet the needs of more than 2 million people.” Click here to read… [19]

US to Deploy Anti-Ship Missiles on Subs in 2024 to Counter China

The US Navy plans to begin arming submarines next year with ship-targeting versions of the widely used Tomahawk missile, part of Washington’s push to ramp up military capabilities to challenge Chinese maritime forces, particularly around Taiwan. The “Maritime Strike” version of the Tomahawk, the RTX Corp. missile traditionally used as a ground-attack weapon, will be fielded after Oct. 1, program manager Captain Jon Hersey said in a statement. The latest models will be modified with a new guidance system enabling them to “to engage a mobile target at sea,” he said, adding the Navy took delivery of the initial version last year for tests before declaring it combat ready. Fielding the new version of the Tomahawk — which made its battlefield debut in the early hours of the 1991 Persian Gulf War in Iraq —- would add to a growing US arsenal of ship-attack missiles to complement submarine-launched torpedoes intended to counter China’s numerically superior fleet. While the Navy also plans to start fielding the weapons on surface vessels, those are more vulnerable to China’s land- and sea-based anti-ship arsenal. Taiwan, which China claims as its sovereign territory, is of particular interest for Washington and sees defending the island — and its crucial semiconductor industry — as a strategic, economic and political priority. Click here to read… [20]

U.S. forges new high-tech pact with Australia and the U.K.

From underwater drones to electronic warfare, the United States is expanding its high-tech military cooperation with Australia and the United Kingdom as part of a broader effort to counter China’s rapidly growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with defense chiefs from Australia and the United Kingdom at the U.S. military’s defense technology hub in Silicon Valley on Dec. 1 to forge a new agreement to increase technology cooperation and information sharing. The goal, according to a joint statement, is to be able to better address global security challenges, ensure each can defend against rapidly evolving threats and to “contribute to stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.” Austin met with Australia’s Richard Marles and Britain’s Grant Shapps at the Defense Innovation Unit headquarters. Speaking at a news conference after the meeting, Austin said the effort will, for example, rapidly accelerate the sophistication of the drone systems, and prove that “we are stronger together.” The new technology agreement is the next step in a widening military cooperation with Australia that was first announced in 2021. The three nations have laid out plans for the so-called AUKUS partnership to help equip Australia with a fleet of eight nuclear-powered submarines. AUKUS is an acronym for Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Click here to read… [21]

COP28 vow to triple renewable energy by 2030 supported by 118 nations

A pledge to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 garnered support from 118 countries as of Dec 02 at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties underway in the United Arab Emirates. A joint proposal was made by the U.S, Europe, and the UAE aimed to triple renewable energy capacity to at least 11,000 gigawatts by 2030. Japan added its support, and emerging and developing countries in Asia and Africa are being called upon to participate as well. If realized, this will would be a major achievement for COP28 in the fight against global warming. The aim is to clearly state the goal in the summit's final agreement, in which about 200 nations will participate. "This can and will help transition the world away from unabated coal," summit president Sultan al-Jaber said. In a September report, the International Energy Agency called for a tripling of renewable energy to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aim to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels. This tripling goal was also agreed upon at the Group of 20 summits held in India in September. The focus will be on whether the COP summit can be used as an opportunity to promote a global consensus on the goal. Click here to read… [22]

Xi vows to protect China's maritime interests in coast guard visit

President Xi Jinping made a rare visit this week to a China Coast Guard headquarters in Shanghai that has jurisdiction over the East China Sea, vowing to boost the maritime security force's capabilities. Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported the visit on Dec 01. At the base, Xi said the country would "resolutely protect China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests." The coast guard's East China Sea division appears to be directing the vessels and units operating around the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands, which China claims as the Diaoyu. Xi received a report at the headquarters and watched footage of a coast guard formation carrying out a mission. "We must crack down on illegal and criminal activity at sea in accordance with the law and maintain the development of China's maritime economy," Xi said during Nov 29's visit. He also advocated for cooperation with foreign countries in maritime law enforcement and for stronger Communist Party guidance of the coast guard. The China Coast Guard in 2018 was brought under the control of the People's Armed Police, which is directed by the Central Military Commission, the country's highest defense decision-making body. Xi leads the Central Military Commission. Click here to read… [23]

Henry Kissinger, former US secretary of state, dead at 100

Henry Kissinger, a controversial Nobel Peace Prize winner and diplomatic powerhouse whose service under two presidents left an indelible mark on US foreign policy, died on Nov 29 at age 100, according to his geopolitical consulting firm Kissinger Associates Inc. Kissinger died at his home in Connecticut, the firm said in a statement. No mention was made of the circumstances. It said he would be interred at a private family service, to be followed at a later date by a public memorial service in New York City. Kissinger had been active past his centenary, attending meetings in the White House, publishing a book on leadership styles, and testifying before a Senate committee about the nuclear threat posed by North Korea. In July this year he made a surprise visit to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who spoke fondly of “old friend” Kissinger. China treats ‘old friend’ Kissinger to a lavish lunch. In his time as a US secretary of state, he dramatically shifted US relations in the Cold War, in Vietnam, and in China. Kissinger secretly flew to Beijing in July 1971 on a mission to establish relations with China, setting the stage for a landmark visit by President Richard Nixon who sought both to shake up the Cold War and enlist help ending the Vietnam war. Click here to read… [24]

Japan and Vietnam upgrade security ties with eye on China

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong agreed Nov 27 to work more closely on security, possibly involving Tokyo's new defense aid program, as Hanoi grows more concerned about China's maritime military buildup. The two sides said they will increase defense-related exchanges and discuss cooperation via Tokyo's Official Security Assistance program, through which Japan gives defense equipment to countries with shared values. The summit in Tokyo -- Thuong's first visit to Japan since taking office this year -- came as Japan marks its 50th anniversary of formal diplomatic relations with Vietnam and with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Vietnam, which sits in a key position on a sea lane between the Pacific and Indian oceans, is locked in a territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea, where Beijing has been expanding its military presence, straining the neighbors' close relationship. Stability in that region is important to Japan, which relies on imported resources such as oil and natural gas. Kishida stressed in the joint statement that Vietnam and ASEAN are "important partners for Japan to realize a Free and Open Indo-Pacific." Japan's OSA program, a central element of the support discussion, was launched just this year, with the Philippines, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Fiji chosen as the four recipients for the first year. Click here to read… [25]

Security Council agrees to terminate UN mission in Sudan

A United Nations political mission in war-racked Sudan will end on Dec 03 after the UN Security Council voted to shut it down following a request from Sudanese authorities last month. Fourteen of the council’s 15 members adopted Dec 01’s resolution to end the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), while Russia abstained. Starting Dec 04, a three-month transition period will begin to allow for the departure of UNITAMS personnel and the transfer of its tasks to other UN agencies “where appropriate and to the extent feasible”. While they voted in favour of the resolution, UN ambassadors from the United States and United Kingdom expressed dismay over the decision. “Let me be clear, the United Kingdom would not have chosen to close UNITAMS at this moment,” said Britain’s deputy UN envoy James Kariuki, whose country drafted the resolution. US envoy Robert Wood said: “We are gravely concerned that a reduced international presence in Sudan will only serve to embolden the perpetrators of atrocities with dire consequences for civilians.” In the text, the council expressed “alarm at the continued violence and humanitarian situation, in particular violations of international humanitarian law and grave human rights violations and abuses” in Sudan. Click here to read… [26]

Egypt’s Sinai Bedouins fear Israel’s mass displacement of Gaza Palestinians

As Israel’s war on Gaza nears the end of a second month, Rehab Eldalil worries about reports of efforts by Israel to push the 2.3 million people of the besieged Gaza Strip into the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula – her ancestors’ home. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has publicly stated that Egypt will not allow a displacement of Palestinians, as it would mean “the end of the Palestinian cause” and a potential threat to Egypt’s national security. But news reports have suggested that Israel might offer to pay off some of Egypt’s vast public debt in exchange for allowing the forced displacement of people from Gaza into Sinai. Eldalil, an Egyptian photographer and storyteller of Bedouin descent, worries that that kind of narrative “takes away the right of Palestinians to stay on their land, while promoting that Sinai is an empty desert for Palestinians to go to”. It is not, and hasn’t been for centuries. The 61,000sq km (23,500sq mile) triangle of land that bridges Africa and Asia is a popular tourist destination, a significant religious and historical site, and an important economic centre for Egypt. It is home to several oil and natural gas fields, as well as the Suez Canal, one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, which generates up to $9bn annually. Click here to read… [27]

Venezuela's Maduro Holds Referendum Whether To Invade Oil-Rich Neighbor Guyana

In a move that has prompted many to wonder which is the bigger banana republic, Venezuela or the US, Joe Biden's new BFF, Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro (who has promised to export a few barrels of oil to the US president - now that draining the SPR is no longer an option - to keep gas prices low ahead of the 2024 presidential election in exchange for sanction relaxation and defacto recognition by the White House that Maduro is the dictatorially "democratically" elected president of Venezuela, making a mockery of a decade of Western virtue-signaling sanctions), on Dec 03 Caracas is set to hold a referendum among Venezuelans on annexing (i.e., invading and taking over) a whopping 160,000 sq km of extremely oil-rich land in neighbouring Guyana. Why now? Why only now when Caracas has for more than 200 years claimed rights over Essequibo, a vast swath of the territory Guyana? Simple: because as we said several days ago, it was only a few months ago that Maduro realized he has leverage over the US president of the "most powerful nation in the world" and get away with anything... even invading a sovereign nation. Of course, (oil rich but extraction poor) Venezuela's heightened interest at this expanse of Amazon jungle springs in part from its resource riches, including offshore oil deposits that have since 2019 made Guyana the world’s fastest-growing economy. Click here to read… [28]

Ukraine’s Zelensky Orders Construction of Defenses to Hold Back Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered the construction of an extensive network of fortifications aimed at holding back Russian forces, signaling a switch to the defensive posture after a monthslong Ukrainian counteroffensive yielded only small gains. Zelensky’s message in a video address late Nov 30 is the clearest official acknowledgment that Ukraine faces a hard winter defending the territory it holds, with little immediate prospect of major advances against the nearly 20% of its land occupied by Russia. Instead, as the war approaches a third year, Ukraine is digging in just as winter starts to bite, with Russia pursuing grinding military offensives in the east and northeast. Zelensky’s announcement came after a day traveling the northeast and southeast for meetings with military commanders and soldiers, as well as a tour of schools operating from underground bomb shelters and subway stations because of the threat of Russian shelling. One meeting, he said, concerned fortifications “on all the main fronts, where we need to dig in, speed up the pace of construction.” He said the focus would be the east and northeast, where Russia has sought to advance for months, achieving small gains at heavy cost. But he also noted that fortifications should be built in the Kyiv region along with others that border Russia and Belarus, from where Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Click here to read… [29]

US military aircraft suffers fatal crash in Japan

At least one person has been killed and several others injured after a V-22 Osprey aircraft operated by the US military crashed off Yakushima Island in southwestern Japan on Nov 29. The crash is the latest in a series of accidents involving the tilt-rotor aircraft. The vertical-take-off plane, which was assigned to the Yokota Air Base in Tokyo, disappeared from radar while en route to Kadena Air Base in Okinawa on Nov 29 afternoon, according to the Japanese Defense Ministry. The Japanese Coast Guard said that it received a distress call moments before the Osprey crashed into the sea, several hundred kilometers north of Okinawa. One of the six people aboard the aircraft was found dead at the scene, the coast guard said, while a group of local fishermen told Reuters that three others were found nearby in unknown condition. Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki told reporters that he would seek the suspension of all US Osprey flights in Japan “until the cause of the accident is identified.” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, a close partner of Washington, said that he would not push for a grounding until the crash is investigated. In service since 2007, the V-22 Osprey can take off like a helicopter, before tilting its twin rotors forward and flying like a conventional turboprop plane. The US and Japanese militaries are the world’s only operators of the aircraft. Click here to read… [30]

Chinese navy visits Myanmar in ‘show of friendship’ following upsurge in fighting along border

Chinese warships are visiting Myanmar, highlighting the strong relationship between the two countries’ militaries amid recent clashes in border regions that threaten to complicate relations. The PLA Navy ships, including the Zibo, a guided-missile destroyer, and the Jinzhou, a guided-missile frigate, arrived in Yangon on Nov 27 for a four-day visit and were met by senior Myanmar officers, state broadcaster CCTV reported on Nov 28. The Chinese delegation will take part in “professional exchanges, cultural and sports competitions, and mutual visits to military facilities with officers and sailors of the Myanmar Navy”, according to the report. A spokesman for the ruling junta Zaw Min Tun confirmed that the two warships and a supply vessel, carrying more than 700 sailors between them, had arrived at Thilawa port on Nov 27 ahead of “naval security exercises between Myanmar and China”, according to the Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper. He did not give further information about the exercises, but said the visit reflected the “strong friendship” between the two militaries. It is the first Chinese naval visit to the country since 2017. Fan Hongwei, a specialist in China-Myanmar relations at Xiamen University, said the visit “indicates that military exchanges between China and Myanmar have not been affected by the situation in the north [of Myanmar]”. Click here to read… [31]

Health

Disease could kill more in Gaza than bombs, WHO says amid Israeli siege

More people could die from disease than from bombings in the Gaza Strip if the health and sanitation systems are not repaired, the World Health Organization (WHO) has said. Critical infrastructure in the besieged territory has been crippled by fuel and supply shortages and targeted attacks on hospitals and United Nations facilities since Israel launched strikes on Gaza on October 7. “Eventually we will see more people dying from disease than from bombardment if we are not able to put back together this health system,” said Margaret Harris, a spokesperson for the WHO, speaking at a briefing in Geneva on Nov 28. She described the collapse of al-Shifa Hospital in northern Gaza as a “tragedy” and voiced concern about the detention of some of its medical staff by Israeli forces who took over the complex earlier this month. She also repeated concerns about a rise in outbreaks of infectious diseases in Gaza, particularly diarrhoeal diseases. Citing a United Nations report on the living conditions of displaced residents in northern Gaza, she said: “[There are] no medicines, no vaccination activities, no access to safe water and hygiene and no food.” All key sanitation services have ceased operating in Gaza, which raises the prospect of an enormous surge of gastrointestinal and infectious diseases among the local populations – including cholera. Click here to read… [32]

Covid-19 lockdowns caused cognitive decline – study

Elderly adults experienced a disastrous decline in cognitive functioning during the UK’s Covid-19 quarantine policies, a study published in the Lancet on Nov 28 revealed. The accelerated worsening of working memory and other key intellectual metrics persisted even after lockdown ended. Analyzing data collected by the government’s PROTECT study of adults aged 50 and above before, during, and after the pandemic lockdowns, researchers affiliated with the University of Exeter, King’s College London, and Imperial College London found “significant worsening of executive function and working memory” across all groups studied. Reduced exercise and increased alcohol use were associated with worsening of memory and executive functioning during lockdown even among individuals who had no previous history of cognitive impairment, while depression and loneliness were strongly linked to worsening of existing cognitive issues. Declines in working memory persisted even after lockdowns ended and overall cognitive decline declined at twice the rate it had prior to lockdowns, as measured by performance on the cognitive tasks participants completed as part of the PROTECT study. This marked decline in overall cognition was observed even in elderly individuals who had shown no signs of impairment prior to the lockdowns. Click here to read… [33]