Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (20-26 November 2023)

Economic

Earth to warm up to 2.9C even with current climate pledges: UN

The world’s emissions-cutting pledges are nowhere near enough to curb the effects of climate change, with Earth on track for warming a potentially catastrophic 2.9C (5.2F) this century, the United Nations has warned. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP)’s annual Emissions Gap report, published on Nov 20, assesses countries’ promises to tackle climate change against the action needed. This year is expected to be the hottest in human history. “The world is witnessing a disturbing acceleration in the number, speed and scale of broken climate records,” UNEP said. The report found the world faces between 2.5C (4.5F) and 2.9C (5.2F) of warming above preindustrial levels on current commitments if governments do not take more aggressive climate action. At that level of warming, scientists predict the world could pass several catastrophic points of no return, from the runaway melting of ice sheets to the Amazon rainforest drying out, and leave vast swathes of the planet essentially uninhabitable for humans. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for “dramatic climate action” at the COP28 climate talks, which begin in Dubai on November 30. He likened the emissions gap to a canyon.“Leaders can’t kick the can any further. We’re out of road,” he said, condemning a “failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable, and a massive missed opportunity”. Click here to read… [2]

World facing ‘debt tsunami’ – Bloomberg

Sovereign bond sales could increase further next year as budget deficits balloon across the developed world, Bloomberg reported this week. According to the outlet’s analysis, this comes at a bad time as central banks have accelerated the reduction of huge bond holdings amassed through quantitative easing. “This double whammy means bond yields, particularly at the longer end of the curve, are set for a difficult 2024,” Bloomberg wrote, suggesting the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England should curb their enthusiasm for shrinking their balance sheets. According to the Bank of America, cited in the report, Treasury bond issuance is expected to reach a record $1.34 trillion next year. Meanwhile, the US deficit in 2026 is projected to climb towards $2 trillion. The report indicated that multiple factors affect bond values, but “the one constant in an ever-changing world is rising debt issuance.” The US Fed has reportedly been trimming its balance sheet by $95 billion a month since June 2022, reducing it so far to $7.8 trillion, nearly double the pre-pandemic $4 trillion mark. The risk remains that the combination of monetary tightening by the Fed with expanding US Treasury supply will prove “deadly,” Bloomberg wrote. Click here to read… [3]

US and China pitch rival supply-chain visions in latest clash over global trade and economic needs

The US and China this week are pitching rival visions of what constitutes a resilient and sustainable supply chain, marking the latest chapter in their fierce competition to assert a global trading system built around their respective economic needs. Just hours before Beijing was to launch its first international expo on supply chains featuring American tech giants like Tesla, Apple, Intel and Qualcomm under the tagline “connecting the world for a shared future”, US President Joe Biden convened the inaugural meeting of his supply-chain resilience council in Washington on Nov 26. In doing so, Biden announced 30 new actions “to strengthen supply chains critical to America’s economic and national security”, according to the White House. The measures are meant to spur domestic production of essential medicines and cut reliance on “high-risk foreign supplies” of medical products, calling to mind widely held American concerns at the height of the coronavirus pandemic. They entail new investments in tools to monitor supply chains by sharing data more efficiently among federal agencies and assessing risks to the supply of renewable energy resources. Accordingly, the White House has sought allies and partners to mitigate the impact of China’s dominance in key sectors such as critical minerals through initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Click here to read… [4]

China’s Communist Party signals further delay to third plenum, a key economic session

An all-important Communist Party session that had been expected to set China’s development strategy and priorities has been further delayed, with the top leadership stopping short of announcing a date. The Politburo was expected to announce a date for the conclave – the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee – when the leadership gathered for its monthly meeting on Nov 27 but there was no mention of the plenum in the Politburo’s statement. Instead, the 24-man decision making body led by President Xi Jinping discussed plans to double down on the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, one of Xi’s signature projects. The seventh plenum of the 18th Central Committee taking place in October 2017, shortly before that year’s party congress. Photo: Xinhua The meeting was held a day before Xi’s visit to Shanghai – his first to China’s commercial hub since 2020, according to several sources familiar with the matter. He is expected to visit the Shanghai Futures Exchange and some technology companies in the city, according to several people familiar with the plan, who declined to be named to discuss a confidential itinerary. The sources said Xi was scheduled to remain in Shanghai for three days, although the final plan could still change. Click here to read… [5]

Chinese military vendor CETC to take over smaller tech company

China has approved the merger of two major state-owned technology companies in a move that appears to seek the scale needed to fight growing U.S. trade restrictions. China Electronics Technology Group Corp. (CETC) will absorb digital services provider China Hualu Group, the country's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said on Nov 23. This deal will make Hualu a subsidiary of CETC. Both state-owned enterprises are managed directly by the State Council, China's cabinet. CETC is a Beijing-based company that serves the military, supplying the People's Liberation Army with electronic equipment like radar. Its sales in 2022 reached $55.8 billion, Chinese media report. The company also handles consumer products, and its group includes Hikvision, one of the world's leading makers of surveillance cameras. The U.S. began rolling out restrictions on CETC, its group companies and research divisions in 2018, citing concerns that American products could be used for China's military activities. China Hualu, an audiovisual equipment company based in the Liaoning province city of Dalian, grew through a joint venture with Japan's Panasonic but shifted to digital services for governments and businesses as equipment sales declined. Hualu does not disclose sales figures. CETC has been a focus of Beijing's efforts to integrate state-owned tech companies. In 2021, it absorbed Potevio Group, which has strengths in wireless communications and security, making it a subsidiary. Click here to read… [6]

China and Saudi Arabia sign currency swap accord to foster bilateral commerce, giving a boost to the yuan’s globalisation

The central banks of China and Saudi Arabia have agreed on their first currency swap to foster bilateral commerce denominated in the yuan and the riyal, opening the way for more trade to flourish in local currencies. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) signed a three-year swap agreement for a maximum value of 50 billion yuan (US$6.97 billion), or 26 billion riyal, according to statements on Nov 20 by the two monetary authorities. The pact, which can be extended by mutual agreement, reflects the strengthening collaboration between the two central banks, SAMA said. The Saudi central bank was looking to strengthen its connections with the PBOC via bilateral dialogues, collaborations in multilateral forums, as well as partnerships in international organisations, SAMA’s governor Ayman bin Mohammed Al-Sayari said in an interview last month. The agreement with SAMA is the 30th swap signed by the PBOC over the past decade, as China quickened the pace of the yuan’s worldwide usage. The Chinese central bank already has swap agreements with several countries in the Middle East: the United Arab Emirates in 2012, Qatar in 2014 and Egypt in 2016. To reduce its dependency on US dollars, China has long been keen to increase the yuan’s use overseas. Click here to read… [7]

South Korea to unveil $26bn of U.K. investments during Yoon trip

South Korea is set to announce 21 billion pounds ($26.3 billion) of investments in U.K. renewable energy and infrastructure projects during President Yoon Suk Yeol's state visit to the country this week.The deal, which includes 9.7 billion pounds from South Korea's sovereign wealth fund to be deployed over 10 years, will be announced at the U.K.-Korea Business Forum on Nov 22 as both sides seek stronger business ties. Apart from the government, Shinhan Financial Group is the next-biggest investor with plans to plough 2 billion pounds into renewables and infrastructure projects in the U.K. Business aside, Yoon and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will hold a bilateral meeting at the latter's official residence of No. 10 Downing Street on Nov 22. They are then expected to sign an agreement on working together in artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and semiconductor development, and commit up to 4.5 million pounds in joint research funding. "Through our new Downing Street Accord, we will drive investment, boost trade and build a friendship that not only supports global stability, but protects our interests and lasts the test of time," Sunak said Nov 20 in a news release where he also called the U.K. and South Korea "natural partners." Click here to read… [8]

Japan shares hit three-decade high, yuan climbs

Japanese shares hit highs not seen since 1990 on Nov 20 as strong earnings and offshore demand fuelled a three-week winning streak, while the yuan was nudged higher by China’s central bank. Japan’s Nikkei was back to steady after finally breaking its September peak and is up 8.8% for the month so far with the Topix not far behind. Financial shares led the gains on Nov 20 as investors prepare for an eventual end to negative rates, while auto makers have been benefiting from a weak yen and high exports. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1%, having climbed 2.8% last week to a two-month high. The Black Friday sales will test the pulse of the consumer-driven U.S. economy this week, while the Thanksgiving holiday will make for thin markets. There were media reports Israel, the United States and Hamas had reached a tentative agreement to free dozens of hostages in Gaza in exchange for a five-day pause in fighting, but no confirmation as yet. Chinese blue chips dipped 0.2% as the country’s central bank held rates steady as widely expected but set a firm fix for the yuan that saw the dollar slip under 7.2000 to a three-month low. Click here to read… [9]

Polish truckers blocking Ukraine military cargos – media

A border blockade by Polish truckers is affecting the delivery of military and humanitarian goods to neighbouring Ukraine, the UNIAN media outlet has claimed, citing volunteers. Among the supplies that allegedly cannot reach Ukraine are fuel, drones, and thermal cameras. The truckers began their protest on November 6, denouncing the EU’s decision to exempt their Ukrainian counterparts from having to seek permits to cross the frontier. The law was initially relaxed after the conflict between Moscow and Kiev broke out in February 2022, but the protesters argue that the measures have led to unfair competition and have driven down prices. In a Telegram post on Nov 25, Ukrainian media outlet UNIAN cited a volunteer who collects donations for Kiev’s forces and delivers electronic equipment. He complained to his followers on Facebook that components for anti-drone detectors “are all stuck at the Polish border.” A fellow Ukrainian volunteer, Boris Miroshnykov, wrote in a Telegram post on Nov 21 that “right now, thousands of vans with critical imports – fuel, drones, thermal imagers, medical goods, etc. – are being blocked at the Polish border.” He added that “humanitarian cargoes do not pass either.” Miroshnykov claimed that the consequences for Ukraine could soon be “comparable to a naval blockade by” Russia. The volunteer also lamented that “Warsaw will not voluntarily help with the solution of the issue.” Click here to read… [10]

Africa’s Oil Production Is Set to Decline Next Year

Africa’s oil production is set for a gradual decline in 2024, the African Energy Chamber said in a new report on the industry this weekend. The chamber forecasts “relative calm” in the global oil market for the remainder of 2023, NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, wrote. “For now, the wild extremes of the pandemic era appear to be behind us,” Ayuk said, but noted that declining oil production in Africa is not welcome news for the African oil-producing nations. “The State of African Energy 2024 Outlook” report shows that oil production in Africa in 2023 – 2024 is expected to stay relatively flat at about 6.77 million barrels per day (bpd). But month-on-month production looks a bit bleaker, with production declining from 6.9 million bpd in January 2024 to around 6.62 million bpd in December 2024, according to the African Energy Chamber. OPEC member nations Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, and Angola are driving Africa’s oil and condensates production, with Nigeria the largest producer, contributing a little over a fifth of these countries’ combined total annual volumes. However, Africa’s OPEC producers, including Nigeria, need to address production outages caused by pipeline vandalism and militant activity, exacerbated by declining legacy fields and a lack of new start-ups, the African Energy Chamber says. Click here to read… [11]

Houthi Tanker Seizures Could Reignite the War Premium in Oil Markets

The risk premium for oil prices resulting from the ongoing Israel-Hamas War has not risen as dramatically as it did after Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. This has largely been due to the exceptional job done by the U.S. in preventing a widening out of the conflict across the region, which would almost certainly produce a massive spike in oil and gas prices. Part of the U.S.’s success has been down to extremely deft diplomatic efforts across the Middle East, spearheaded by Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, involving the use of serious carrots and equally serious sticks. The other part has been due to the same approach being used on China, which, through its multiple projects centered around its ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI), wields enormous influence over several key power players in the region. This was again highlighted in the 10 March relationship resumption agreement between the Middle East’s major Sunni power, Saudi Arabia, and its major Shia power, Iran – a deal exclusively brokered by China, as analyzed in depth in my new book on the new global oil market order. However, the rise in oil and shipping insurance premiums following the 19 November seizure by the Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis of Israeli-owned cargo ship Galaxy Leader highlighted that the war-risk premium connected to the Israel-Hamas conflict for the global oil sector could spike at any time if the current delicate diplomatic balance is lost. Click here to read… [12]

Palladium, nickel prices fall as supply chains cut Russia exposure

Palladium and nickel prices have touched lows not seen in several years as the result of manufacturers rearranging their supply chains to reduce their dependence on Russia. In New York, the most heavily traded futures for palladium fetched $948.50 per troy ounce at one point Nov. 13, marking the lowest point in five years and two months. The value has dropped by roughly 40% from the start of the year." Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia supplied 40% of the palladium, but now the share has fallen," said a source from a Japanese mining company. During the first nine months of the year, the volume of palladium Japan imported from Russia shrank by 40% compared to the same period in 2021. Easing concerns over supplies is bringing down the price of the metal. Because Russia produces nearly half of the world's palladium, prices jumped last year alongside the war in Ukraine. In response, Palladium buyers adopted alternate materials or switched their sources to places like South Africa, moves that mitigated the risk of price spikes as well as eased supply chain bottlenecks. Last year, the London Platinum and Palladium Market removed Russian palladium suppliers from its list of accepted brands. Around 80% of the demand for palladium originates from catalytic converters for automobiles. As a result, more manufacturers are turning to platinum and other materials that can be used in catalytic converters. Click here to read… [13]

The Unexpected Winner in the Craziest Week in AI

Satya Nadella couldn’t help himself. The nuttiest weekend in his nearly 10 years on the job started Nov 17, when Nadella learned just minutes before the rest of the world that OpenAI’s board had just ousted Sam Altman, its co-founder and CEO. The company behind Chat GPT had been seeking a valuation at $90 billion. Rarely has one board decision threatened to destroy so much value in so little time. Despite the fact that Microsoft had paid billions for a 49% stake in OpenAI, using its technology to power a new generation of software that it promised could revolutionize work, the startup’s biggest investor didn’t have a board seat. Nadella found out at more or less the same time as everyone else that his investment—one that almost single-handedly catapulted Microsoft to the forefront of the artificial-intelligence revolution—had suddenly gone wrong. But when the board turned on Altman, Altman immediately turned to Nadella. Hours after the boardroom coup last Friday, they were on the phone, discussing how to restore Altman to OpenAI—or join Microsoft. If Altman wasn’t hired back to his place atop OpenAI, the former CEO of the glitziest AI company would become an employee of Microsoft. By the end of the frenetic weekend, Altman had agreed to start a new AI division at the tech giant, so he could keep working with Nadella and take advantage of Microsoft’s access to computing power. Click here to read… [14]

Germany Freezes Public Spending in New Setback for Europe

Germany froze public spending for the rest of the year after a court declared the government’s spending plans unconstitutional, dealing a blow to Europe’s recovery and efforts to beef up its defences and reduce carbon emissions. The court decision is likely to widen the economic speed gap between Europe, whose economy has stagnated for over a year, and the U.S., which grew at an annualized 5% in the three months through September, turbocharged by massive fiscal stimulus. Germany’s economy, Europe’s largest, is contracting as surging energy prices and trade tensions cast doubt on its export-oriented business model. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government had been counting on bold spending on green-energy projects and technology—from chips to batteries—to revive the model. Energy prices are expected to remain permanently above pre-Ukraine war levels, which may squeeze out energy-intensive manufacturing, while an aging population and a labour force that is projected to shrink will likely constrain potential growth. Berlin’s decision to freeze all federal spending for the rest of the year came after the court defunded the government’s 60 billion euro—the equivalent of more than $65 billion—green-transition project. The court said Berlin couldn’t repurpose unspent credits originally earmarked to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic to fund environmental and energy projects. Click here to read… [15]

Global Automakers Turn to China for EV Lessons

Volkswagen engineers in one of China’s electric-vehicle hubs are looking to the country’s automotive industry for clues about how to speed up manufacturing and beat back local rivals in the world’s biggest auto market. The German automaker has long been the number one manufacturer in a market dominated by gasoline-powered vehicles, but it has been losing market share as China’s market turns electric. It is now trying to figure out how to compete with upstart Chinese makers that can roll out good, affordable and highly digital electric cars—and do so in a third less time. Nissan Motor is similarly trying to produce cars faster by deploying tips it learned from a Chinese joint venture. Toyota Motor is bringing in engineers from its Chinese partnerships to better develop electric and smartcars. The moves highlight a significant turnaround in the politically sensitive, employment-heavy auto industry. Whereas China once struggled to match, much less master, Western know-how in engines and drivetrains, it is now Western companies that need to learn from China. This shift carries implications, not just for China’s market—where domestic carmakers account for around three-quarters of EV and plug-in hybrid sales—but also on global manufacturers’ home turf. China’s EV manufacturing methods, suppliers and digital technology could permeate global carmakers. Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

Xi comment on 'resolving' Taiwan raises concern, Taipei scholars say

Chinese President Xi Jinping's comment on the need to move toward a "resolution" of the Taiwan issue was the talk of think tanks on Nov 20, as China watchers analyze last week's summit with U.S. President Joe Biden. The overall assessment was positive. Jude Blanchette, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said he was surprised that the optics of the summit were "much more positive" than he expected. There was a softness in tone, and Xi seemed happy during and after the meeting, Blanchette said. "All of the camera shots and videos of the two leaders talking together is by design," he said. That design, "is in and of itself a political signal." But James Lee, an assistant research fellow at the Taipei-based research institute Academia Sinica, focused on one quote Xi mixed into his messaging. According to a senior U.S. official who briefed reporters after Nov 15’s summit, Xi insisted that Beijing's preference was for peaceful "reunification" with Taiwan, but Xi also said, "At some point we need to move towards resolution more generally." Lee told a Stimson Center seminar that while affirming China's support for a peaceful approach to cross-strait disputes, "Xi did say to Biden he did not think that this dispute can be postponed indefinitely, and he affirmed his belief in the need for a resolution. That kind of statement ... it's something that would create concern in Taiwan." Click here to read… [17]

North Korean satellite reported to be in orbit, likely with Russian help

A North Korea spy satellite that was launched Nov 21 has entered orbit, South Korea defence officials said Nov 22, while analysts have said that Russia helped upgrade Pyongyang's launch capabilities. The launch marked a milestone for North Korea's military at a time when the attention of the international community is focused elsewhere. While the U.S. is currently dealing with Russia, the Israel-Hamas conflict and China, Pyongyang has apparently exploited the opportunity to enhance its military technology. Flight tracking data and other indicators were used to determine that the Malligyong-1 satellite entered orbit, according to the South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, which is working with the U.S. to track and analyze the satellite. More time is needed to determine whether the satellite is working properly, the Joint Chiefs said. The Chollima-1 rocket launched Malligyong-1 from the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in North Pyongan province on Nov 21 evening, according to North Korean state media, which said the satellite was in orbit. On Nov 22, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited the satellite's control center, according to state media. Kim observed aerial photos of U.S. military bases in Guam received at 9:21 a.m. that day, local time, the report said. Click here to read… [18]

Kishida Cabinet approval rating lowest since LDP regained power

The approval rating for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Cabinet slid to 25 percent, the lowest level for any administration since the Liberal Democratic Party returned to power in 2012, an Asahi Shimbun survey showed. The figure fell from 29 percent in the previous survey last month, while the disapproval rating rose to a record 65 percent, up 5 points from the 11-year high recorded in October, the survey showed. And although the support rating for the ruling LDP is also declining, the opposition bloc has failed to take advantage, with the main parties languishing with single-digit support ratings. The nationwide telephone survey was conducted on Nov. 18 and 19. It showed that unpopularity for the Kishida Cabinet has spread among the public despite its package of economic stimulus measures, including income tax cuts and cash handouts for low-income households to help mitigate the impact of rising prices. Sixty-eight percent of respondents in the survey said they “do not appreciate” these measures, compared with 28 percent who expressed appreciation. Responses varied by age group. Among those aged 18 to 29, 36 percent indicated their appreciation, while the figure was 20 percent among respondents in their 50s. In another economic measure, the Children and Families Agency proposed adding a surcharge to medical insurance premiums to gain more funds to combat Japan’s declining birth rate. Click here to read… [19]

Japan's Komeito chief meets CCP brass but is snubbed by Xi

Natsuo Yamaguchi, head of Japan's junior ruling coalition partner Komeito, returned home Nov 23 from a two-day trip to Beijing, where he affirmed the importance of bilateral exchanges with members of China's top leadership. But Yamaguchi failed to achieve his biggest goal -- a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping -- highlighting the challenges that continue to plague relations between Tokyo and Beijing. With Japan and China marking 45 years of friendship this year, Yamaguchi for months had pushed for a meeting with Xi. But China instead proposed that he meet with Cai Qi, a member of the Communist Party's powerful Politburo Standing Committee, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. While meeting Cai, who ranks fifth in the party hierarchy, Yamaguchi handed him a letter from Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to Xi. Komeito's push for a meeting with Xi stemmed partly from historical ties between Soka Gakkai, a lay Buddhist organization that backs the party, and China. In 1968, then-Soka Gakkai president and Komeito founder Daisaku Ikeda urged for a normalization of ties. In 1972, then-Komeito leader Yoshikatsu Takeiri met Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai, paving the way for Japan and China to establish diplomatic relations later that year. The latest trip was Yamaguchi's seventh to China since he took Komeito's reins in 2009. Click here to read… [20]

Chinese envoy calls for intergovernmental talks to address AUKUS-related risks

A Chinese envoy on Nov 24 called for intergovernmental discussions at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to address the proliferation risks posed by the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal.Li Song, China's permanent representative to the IAEA, told a meeting of the IAEA board of governors that the AUKUS collaboration has a serious impact on the security of the world and the Asia-Pacific region, and poses grave challenges to the international non-proliferation regime and the IAEA safeguards system. "Such cooperation runs counter to the purpose and objectives of the NPT (the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons) and is a typical act of double standard," Li said. Under the trilateral AUKUS alliance, which was announced in September 2021, Australia will be able to build nuclear-powered submarines with technology provided by the United States and the United Kingdom. Li said that the AUKUS deal, which involves political, security, legal and technical issues, will create an important precedent and have a significant impact on the improvement and development of the IAEA safeguards system and relevant safeguards practices. "All these are major issues that must be taken seriously, considered deeply, and handled properly by (the IAEA) member states," Li said. The Chinese envoy noted that the development and improvement of the IAEA safeguards system has historically been achieved through consensus-based and member state-driven processes, with broad participation of member states. Click here to read… [21]

Pakistan expands security for Chinese after Beijing's pressure

Pakistan is strengthening security for Chinese nationals working in the country as Beijing pressures Islamabad to do more to protect them from militants. The Pakistani Interior Ministry held a high-level security meeting late last week and decided that strict protocols for Chinese personnel working on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects should also apply to experts and investors involved in unrelated endeavours. The new procedures require these individuals to register their residential addresses with local police and ensure that they only travel in bulletproof vehicles. Pakistan is home to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $50 billion component of BRI. But Pakistani officials told Nikkei Asia that during caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul-Haq Kakar's visit to China in October, Beijing specifically asked Islamabad to provide security to Chinese personnel not working on CPEC as well. A Chinese readout of the Kakar-Xi meeting said Beijing "expects the Pakistani side to ensure the safety of Chinese institutions and personnel in Pakistan." Repeated attacks and threats against Chinese interests in Pakistan have long been a contentious issue. A security official familiar with the developments, who did not want to be named, said the decision to beef up safeguards is based on intelligence about possible attacks by the Pakistani Taliban and separatists in the province of Balochistan, where key CPEC projects are located, including the southwestern port of Gwadar. Click here to read… [22]

Top diplomats of South Korea, Japan and China meet to restart trilateral summit, revive cooperation

The top diplomats from South Korea, Japan and China met Nov 26 to discuss when to resume their leaders’ trilateral summit after a four-year hiatus and how to strengthen cooperation among the three Northeast Asian neighbours. Closely linked economically and culturally with one another, the three countries together account for about 25% of the global gross domestic product. But efforts to boost trilateral cooperation have often hit a snag because of a mix of issues including historical disputes stemming from Japan’s wartime aggression and the strategic competition between China and the United States. Meeting in the south-eastern South Korean city of Busan, the foreign ministers of the three countries were to exchange opinions on preparations to restart the trilateral summit, ways to improve three-way cooperation and other regional and international issues, according to Seoul’s Foreign Ministry. In September, senior officials of the three nations agreed to restart the trilateral summit “at the earliest convenient time.” Since they held their first stand-alone, trilateral summit in 2008, the leaders of the three countries had been supposed to meet annually. But their summit has faced on-again, off-again suspensions and remains stalled since 2019. Their relationships are intertwined with a slew of complicated, touchy issues. South Korea and Japan are key U.S. military allies, hosting a total of 80,000 American troops on their territories. Click here to read… [23]

South Korea partially suspends inter-Korean agreement after North says it put spy satellite in orbit

South Korea will partially suspend an inter-Korean agreement Nov 22 to restart frontline aerial surveillance of North Korea, after the North said it launched a military spy satellite in violation of United Nations bans, Seoul officials said. The South Korean announcement — which will likely infuriate North Korea — came hours after the North claimed to have placed a military reconnaissance satellite into orbit in its third such launch attempt this year. The North’s claim hasn't been independently verified; the Pentagon said it was still assessing the success of the launch, while Japan stated there has been no confirmation that the North Korean satellite entered orbit. But the United States and its allies still quickly condemned the North Korean launch, which they believe was meant to improve the country’s missile technology as well as establish a space-based surveillance system. North Korea says it has sovereign, legitimate rights to launch spy satellites to cope with what it calls intensifying U.S.-led threats. But U.N. Security Council resolutions still prohibit any satellite liftoff by North Korea, viewing them as covers for testing its long-range missile technology. Heo Tae-keun, South Korea’s deputy minister of national defence policy told a televised briefing that the North’s latest satellite launch was not only a clear violation of U.N. resolutions but also “a grave provocation that threatens our national security.” Click here to read… [24]

‘Comfort women’ ruling in Seoul likely won’t hurt bilateral ties

A Seoul High Court ruling that orders Japan to compensate former “comfort women” will likely be ignored by Tokyo and probably won’t strain bilateral relations, Japanese officials said. This is largely because Tokyo-Seoul ties have greatly improved since Yoon Suk-yeol became South Korean president last year, the officials said. The high court ordered the Japanese government to compensate one former comfort woman and bereaved family members of other wartime comfort women. The court said amount of compensation should be 200 million won (about 23 million yen or $154,000) to each comfort woman. There were 16 plaintiffs in total. The decision overturned a lower court’s dismissal of the lawsuit over “sovereign immunity,” which under international law means a government cannot face trial in an overseas court of law. Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa issued a statement that said the high court ruling “was extremely regrettable” for not recognizing sovereign immunity. The ruling will likely be finalized because the Japanese government will not appeal since it maintains its position on sovereign immunity. Based on this stance, the government has not participated in any trial in South Korea regarding compensation for wartime comfort women. In January 2021, the Seoul Central District Court ordered Japan to pay compensation to former comfort women in a different lawsuit. Click here to read… [25]

Hamas Releases More Hostages as Negotiators Work to Extend Truce with Israel

Hamas released 17 Israeli and foreign hostages on Nov 26, including a 4-year-old-girl with dual U.S.-Israeli citizenship, as negotiators remained locked in talks over a possible extension to the four-day deal that halted fighting. Israeli authorities said that 14 Israelis were freed Nov 26 afternoon and left the Gaza Strip. Egyptian and Qatari officials involved in the negotiations to free the hostages said that three Thai citizens were also released. Among them is a dual U.S.-Israeli citizen, four-year-old Abigail MorIdan, whose parents were killed on Oct. 7. Idan has been through “a terrible trauma,” President Biden said Nov 26 following her release. “Thank God she is home.” In accordance with a deal struck last week between Hamas and Israel, Israel freed 39 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails on Nov 26 in exchange for the hostages. A cease-fire that was part of that deal held for a third day. Nov 26 is day three of the four-day agreement brokered by Qatar and Egypt, under which Hamas committed to releasing 50 Israeli hostages, exclusively women and children, in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Israel also committed to allowing at least 200 trucks carrying humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip daily. With the end of the original agreement approaching, attention is turning to the prospects for prolonging the cease-fire. Click here to read… [26]

What’s behind the Arab-Islamic ministerial tour of UNSC states?

A delegation of Islamic and Arab nations are on a tour of the five permanent United Nations Security Council member states. Their stated goal is to bring a ceasefire to the war on Gaza, allow more humanitarian aid to reach the people there and ask the five council members to support the Palestinians in achieving an independent state. The delegation, formed at a summit of the Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Riyadh, includes representatives from Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Nigeria, the Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the secretary-general of the OIC. It rejects Israel’s claim that its assault on Gaza is in self-defence. On October 7, Hamas attacks in southern Israel killed about 1,200 people. About 240 people were taken captive. Since then, Israel has killed more than 14,500 Palestinians. At least 6,000 were children. The delegation has a packed schedule and started its tour in China, where it met with Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, on Nov 20 in Beijing. Starting with China surprised analysts who speculated on what the delegation was trying to signal to Western powers. Some were less concerned with that and questioned the delegation’s true agenda. “In diplomacy, it is a well-known strategy: When you don’t want to do anything, try to involve the maximum of actors,” Gerard Araud, former French ambassador to Israel, posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. “It takes time, it gives the impression of activity. Click here to read… [27]

EU-China Summit: the trust deficit threatening trade and diplomacy

Two weeks out from a crucial summit in Beijing, frustration is mounting in Brussels that China is not taking EU concerns on trade and geopolitics seriously. Trade tensions are threatening to bubble over, as the bloc considers action against Chinese subsidies of electric vehicles, wind turbines, medical technology and solar equipment. European Union leaders rail against overcapacity in the Chinese economy which they fear will be exported to Europe, while rumours swirl around the use of the new foreign subsidies regulation to stymie Chinese battery giant CATL’s massive investments in Hungary. And serious concerns persist about China’s close ties to Russia. At the same time, a series of Chinese-backed events in the city promoted closer partnership, without addressing the many concerns held in EU institutions. The exasperation came to the surface on Nov 23 at another event hosted by Chinese diplomats to toast 20 years of a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with the EU. A glossy magazine was printed for the occasion, filled with long articles about how the two sides needed to get along, and touting ground for collaboration. But officials clashed over subsidies and Beijing’s alleged use of economic coercion against Lithuania over Taiwan, suggesting the EU-China Summit could be a bruising affair. Click here to read… [28]

Japan faces ‘nightmare scenario’ as growing Russia-China ties could threaten US-led order

A new Japanese security report has stated that China and Russia have a shared ambition of creating a global order heavily tilted in their favour, underlining one of Tokyo’s greatest fears – that the two powers may effectively become military allies.The National Institute of Defence Studies (NIDS), a think tank affiliated with Japan’s defence ministry, last week released its China Security Report 2024, warning that “the contest between the United States and China-Russia over the international order will accelerate” over the coming decade or so. It pointed out that while Beijing and Moscow had a more complicated relationship in the past, those ideological and political differences had been largely set aside to enable Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin to pool at least some of their powers to challenge the status quo. Garren Mulloy, a professor of international relations at Daito Bunka University and a specialist in military issues, said the NIDS report echoed a number of recent white papers and studies in Japan in recent years, but was significant because “it has a greater degree of clarity regarding the non-benevolent characteristics of China and Russia in the modern world”. Much of the report was focused on efforts by both Moscow and Beijing to undermine and ultimately upset the current world order, Mulloy said, with this now identifiable as an “approach that is more coordinated than in the past to change the extant rules-based order”. Click here to read… [29]

New Argentine leader, China critic Javier Milei unlikely to dial back bilateral ties: analysts

Argentina’s president-elect Javier Milei will find it difficult to revisit agreements with China that Buenos Aires has already signed and would likely face resistance from close political allies if he tried, analysts have told the Post. The self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist Milei campaigned on severing relations with China, one of the South American country’s main trading partners, referring to the government in Beijing as “assassins” and accusing China’s Communist Party of killing those “who cannot do what they want”. Yet Milei drew vital backing from the centre-right Republican Proposal party (PRO) led by ex-Argentine president Mauricio Macri, who conditioned its support on Milei upholding “the significance of the relationship with China” and warning of “potential risks” if ties with Beijing were severed, according to Bernabé Malacalza of Argentina’s National Scientific and Technical Research Council. Macri masterminded the candidacy of the PRO’s Patricia Bullrich, who placed third in the first round of the presidential election in October, garnering about 24 per cent of votes.In the run-off election that Milei won on Nov 19, the far-right former television pundit was able to secure votes from many who had cast ballots for Bullrich. But his Liberty Advances coalition won only 39 of the lower house’s 257 seats and eight of the Senate’s 72 seats, suggesting he would not be able to govern without the support of Macri and his backers. Click here to read… [30]

As Migration to Europe Rises, a Backlash Grows

Rising migration across Europe, including the biggest surge in asylum seekers since a 2015-2016 migrant crisis, is fuelling support for far-right and anti-immigration parties, potentially reshaping European politics for years. Nationalist parties that champion a harder line against immigration are surging in polls and have entered governments in countries from Italy to Finland, as anxiety rises about sluggish economic growth and crises from Ukraine to the Middle East. The far right is polling strongly in the continent’s two largest countries, Germany and France. This week’s victory in Dutch elections by far-right politician Geert Wilders, who has placed anti-migration policies at the heart of his political platform for the last 15 years, was a powerful sign of how voters are drifting to antiestablishment politicians, analysts said. He will still need to form a coalition in a fractured political landscape, which likely means softening some of his policy goals, but said Thursday that he wants to become prime minister. Wilders has said he wants strict limits on immigration and no longer wants the Netherlands to accept any asylum seekers. During the election campaign, Wilders tied problems such as the high cost of living and lack of affordable housing to his migration theme, arguing that by slashing the numbers of people who come to the Netherlands, the government could have more money to address other problems. Click here to read… [31]

Health

China says a surge in respiratory illnesses is caused by flu and other known pathogens

A surge in respiratory illnesses across China that has drawn the attention of the World Health Organization is caused by the flu and other known pathogens and not by a novel virus, the country’s health ministry said Nov 26. Recent clusters of respiratory infections are caused by an overlap of common viruses such as the influenza virus, rhinoviruses, the respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, the adenovirus as well as bacteria such as mycoplasma pneumoniae, which is a common culprit for respiratory tract infections, a National Health Commission spokesperson said. The ministry called on local authorities to open more fever clinics and promote vaccinations among children and the elderly as the country grapples with a wave of respiratory illnesses in its first full winter since the removal of COVID-19 restrictions. “Efforts should be made to increase the opening of relevant clinics and treatment areas, extend service hours and increase the supply of medicines,” said ministry spokesman Mi Feng. He advised people to wear masks and called on local authorities to focus on preventing the spread of illnesses in crowded places such as schools and nursing homes. The WHO earlier this week formally requested that China provide information about a potentially worrying spike in respiratory illnesses and clusters of pneumonia in children, as mentioned by several media reports and a global infectious disease monitoring service. Click here to read… [32]

Gene Editing Will Change Medicine—and Maybe Health Investing Too

It usually takes time for scientific discoveries in the lab to make their way to the market. The groundbreaking gene-editing technology known as Crispr, which acts like a molecular pair of scissors that can be used to cut and modify a DNA sequence, has moved rather quickly from the pages of scientific journals to the medical setting. Earlier this month, about three years after Jennifer Doudna and Emmanuelle Charpentier won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for describing how bacteria’s immune system could be used as a tool to edit genes, regulators in the U.K. approved the first Crispr-based treatment for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia patients. The treatment, from Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX -0.81%decrease; red down pointing triangle and Crispr Therapeutics CRSP 2.34% increase; green up pointing triangle, could be approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration early next month for sickle cell patients. While many obstacles lie ahead for the nascent field, such as how to pay for treatments that typically cost more than $1 million, these regulatory approvals are just the start as newer gene-editing technologies such as base and prime editing make their way through human studies. In an interview, Prof. Doudna says the approval is “a turning point in medicine because it really shows how genome editing can be used as a one-and-done cure for disease.” Click here to read… [33]