Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (30 October-05 November 2023)

Economic

China hunts for new industrial ‘pillars’ to replace a wobbly property market

As China’s property sector – once a steadfast contributor to a sizeable chunk of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) – becomes a less reliable growth driver under a cloud of debt and unfulfilled commitments, Beijing has begun to seek out alternative guarantees for economic stability and dependable patterns of expansion.However, analysts warned that the world’s second-largest economy is unlikely to find one alternative industry to replace the entire sector in the short term, despite government efforts to elevate certain industries into strategic redoubts. Some emerging industries such as tech, new energy, advanced manufacturing and biological engineering, have the potential to serve as new economic pillars – but bundled together, they said, not as individual substitutes. “We need to diversify industries instead of relying on one sector too much,” Chang Haizhong, an executive director at Fitch Bohua, the Chinese subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, said on Oct 31. However, he added, “it is impossible and unnecessary to find one single replacement for real estate,” as the sector has entered an adjustment period.Property was first named as a “pillar industry” by the State Council, China’s cabinet, in 2003, five years after Beijing’s decision to privatise housing and boost domestic demand. Along with the related material, construction, decoration and home appliances sectors, the property market contributed to more than a quarter of national GDP in the 2010s, widely considered its heyday. Click here to read... [2]

Key China gathering sees bigger role for Communist Party in finance

China will step up the Communist Party’s leadership of its $61 trillion finance industry and strengthen efforts to reduce local debt risks, state media reported, citing a key twice-a-decade financial policy meeting that was held on Oct.30-31. China will uphold the centralized and unified leadership of the Communist Party on financial work, the Central Financial Work Conference held in Beijing was quoted as saying. The gathering, attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, said China would set up a mechanism for resolving local debt risks and managing local government debt. It will also help with reasonable financing demands for all types of property enterprises and pursue policies that aim to meet housing demand, the conference was quoted as saying. China will “persist in taking risk prevention and control as the eternal theme of financial work,” it was quoted as saying. “We should be aware that all kinds of contradictions and problems in the financial field are intertwined and influence each other, some of which are still very prominent, and there are still many hidden risks of economic and financial risks.”Chinese leaders are trying to revive the economy and fend off potential financial risks from a property slump and 92 trillion yuan ($12.6 trillion) in local government debt, including debt of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). Click here to read... [3]

Israel faces major economic crisis – JPMorgan

JPMorgan has sharply lowered its fourth quarter economic forecast for Israel. According to a research note made public on Oct 27, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) may shrink 11% from the previous three months amid the escalation of hostilities with the Palestinian armed group Hamas. Earlier this month, the bank forecast a 1.5% downturn, but the initial projections were deemed “too optimistic,” analysts suggested. “Gauging the impact of the war on Israel’s economy remains difficult, both due to still-very high uncertainty about the scale and duration of the conflict and the lack of high-frequency data at hand,” JPMorgan stated. The bank also cut its initial projections for the country's yearly GDP growth to 2.5% instead of the previous 3.2%. Analysts, however, slightly raised the outlook for 2024, to 2% from the previous 1.9%. JPMorgan noted that Israel’s previous conflicts, like the 2014 escalation of hostilities with Hamas or the 2006 conflict with the Lebanon-based armed group Hezbollah, “barely affected activity.” However, “the current war has had a much larger impact on domestic security and confidence,” analysts warned. For instance, the death toll estimated at around 1,400 Israelis as of Oct 27 was already much higher than during the previous conflicts, while the number of mobilized reservists has already topped 350,000, the most in Israel’s history and more than 5% of the country’s labour force. Click here to read... [4]

China’s Confucius Institutes Are Disappearing From US Campuses

Almost all the China-funded Confucius Institutes in the US have closed, a new report found, highlighting how soured ties between Beijing and Washington have led US universities to abandon what was once seen as a cheap way to offer Chinese classes.All but five of the institutes, which were created in 2004 to promote Chinese language, are now closed, the Government Accountability Office said. That’s compared with 2019, when the GAO found 96 Confucius Institutes operating in 44 states. At the time, only six states had no colleges or universities with the centers. The decision tracks with a sharp spike in tension between the US and China dating to the Trump administration that’s seen a rise in export-controls, sanctions, tariffs and repeated diplomatic incidents. The two sides are only just beginning to try to get ties back on track, and President Joe Biden is expected to meet President Xi Jinping at an APEC summit in San Francisco later this month.Trump administration officials-initiated attacks on the Confucius Institutes. The main reason that US colleges abandoned them was language in the 2019 and 2021 defense authorization bills that warned schools could lose federal funding if they kept the institutes, according to Kimberly Gianopoulos, the director of International Affairs and Trade at the GAO. Click here to read... [5]

CIIE 2023: US to send strongest-ever delegation to China International Import Expo amid improving ties

Amid improving relations between Beijing and Washington, the United States is expected to send its strongest-ever delegation to next week’s China International Import Expo (CIIE), according to sources with knowledge of the issue. Jason Hafemeister, acting deputy undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs and trade counsel to the agriculture secretary at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), will be among the federal officials attending the six-day event, which begins in Shanghai on Nov 05.Hafemeister will be joined by Wade Sheppard, the USDA’s senior adviser for North Asia. It would mark the first time such high-level US officials would attend the expo, which is widely used by Beijing to highlight its consumer market and fight against decoupling efforts, with the event previously attended by individual firms, trade organisations and regional officials. The US Heartland China Association, a bipartisan advocacy group, will also send a group of mayors from 20 inland US states to explore trade opportunities, the sources added. The delegation follows a string of recent visits by US federal and state politicians, and also raises the possibility of an in-person meeting between President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in San Francisco in mid-November. Click here to read... [6]

Foreign investment in China turns negative for first time

Outflows of foreign direct investment in China have exceeded inflows for the first time as tensions with the U.S. over semiconductor technology and concerns about increased anti-spying activity heighten risks.The shift was reflected in balance-of-payments data for the July-September quarter released Nov 03 by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. FDI came to minus $11.8 billion, with more withdrawals and downsizing than new investments for factory construction and other purposes. This marked the first negative figure in data going back to 1998. Foreign investment had remained sluggish after falling sharply in the April-June quarter of 2022, when the Chinese economy was in turmoil from the zero-COVID lockdown in Shanghai. In a September survey of member companies by the Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry in China, nearly half of respondents said they would not invest in China at all in 2023 or invest less than in 2022. Escalating tensions with the U.S. are one reason for the decline in foreign investment. In a survey taken last fall by the American Chamber of Commerce in the People's Republic of China, 66% of member respondents cited rising bilateral tensions as a business challenge in China. In August, the U.S. announced tighter restrictions on chip and artificial intelligence investment in China. Click here to read... [7]

Japan's Kishida seeks economic transformation with ambitious stimulus

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's ambitious stimulus package seeks to revamp the economy by bolstering the labour force and spurring domestic investment. But as past measures have failed to address entrenched structural issues, it remains uncertain whether massive spending can help boost the nation's growth rate this time. The package contains stimulus measures totalling 37.4 trillion yen ($249 billion), exceeding previous spending programs compiled in pre-pandemic times. The goal is to raise the nation's potential growth rate to 1%, on par with the U.S. and Europe. Wage growth and investments have remained stagnant in Japan for over three decades due to prolonged deflationary pressure. The potential growth rate, which shows expansion in the supply capacity of the economy, was 3.7% in fiscal 1990, just before the collapse of the asset bubble. In fiscal 2022, the figure was a mere 0.4%."The 1.0% figure becomes an apparent target when looking at figures for countries around the world. Japan's must be raised in comparison to other countries," Kishida said last month, making the 1% figure the de facto numerical target for strengthening supply capacity as the country's demand shortfall shrinks. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Japan's potential growth rate lagged U.S.'s 1.8%, Canada's 1.5% and France's 1.2% in 2022. Click here to read... [8]

China, U.S., Japan, others agree to combat AI risks at U.K. summit

China joined a group of more than 25 countries, including the U.S., U.K. and Japan, in agreeing to work together to combat the risks posed by artificial intelligence at the beginning of the two-day, U.K.-hosted AI Safety Summit on Nov 01.Countries and the European Union participating in the summit released a joint statement, officially the Bletchley Declaration, that cited the potential dangers of AI like cyberattacks."There is potential for serious, even catastrophic, harm, deliberate or unintentional, stemming from the most significant capabilities of these AI models," the declaration said. Signing countries pledged to work together to improve safety. High-ranking officials from 28 countries, including China's Ministry of Science and Technology, were in attendance. Tech company leaders also took part, including Elon Musk -- who launched a new AI development company -- and Sam Altman, CEO of generative AI ChatGPT developer OpenAI. Japan, which favoured discussions among Group of Seven members, had been among those to indicate reservations about China's participation. "You should certainly try and engage with them [China] because for a proper solution to AI over time, it is going to require an international solution," U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said last week of the decision to invite representatives from Beijing. Click here to read... [9]

EU, US, UAE Pressure Other Govts To Join Deal To Triple Renewable Energy

The United States, the European Union, and the United Arab Emirates are looking to drum up new recruits in the form of other governments to sign onto a global deal that seeks to triple renewable energy investment, according to new documents seen by Reuters. The COP28 climate summit hosts are working with other governments to sign onto a pledge in the runup to the UN climate negotiations later this month in Dubai that would agree to triple renewable energy yet this decade. A launch event could take place at the beginning of the summit, a US State Department spokesperson told Reuters.The deal would see 11,000 GW installed by 2030 in an effort to limit global warming to just 1.5 degrees Celsius, a draft letter sent to other governments and seen by Reuters said. The draft pledge would also double the world’s annual rate of improving energy efficiency to 4% per year until 2030.“We have the solutions at hand and we have already made huge strides in expanding the global renewable energy capacity and becoming more energy efficient,” the letter said. The letter was signed by the United States, the International Energy Agency, the European Commission, the UAE Presidency of the COP28 summit, and the International Renewable Energy Agency, as well as Barbados, Kenya, Chile, and Micronesia. Click here to read... [10]

Why Wall Street Financiers Are Flocking To Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia welcomed last week top financiers and technology tycoons to attract additional investments in its economy, which it is looking to diversify from oil. The Future Investment Initiative (FII) forum, dubbed by many observers ‘Davos in the Desert’, took place weeks after the power balance in the Middle East was upended again after the Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Israeli offensive on Gaza. The forum was attended by prominent Wall Street bankers such as JP Morgan’s chief executive Jamie Dimon and Citigroup’s CEO Jane Fraser, as well as ousted WeWork CEO Adam Neumann—all attracted by potential opportunities that Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), could offer. The attendance of top Wall Street financiers suggested that the Saudi oil money is still attractive for foreign investment, but the new war in the Middle East could scupper plans by Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco to sell more shares to the public. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that Aramco – the world’s largest oil firm – is considering selling off as much as $50 billion in shares. If The Kingdom goes through with the share sale, it would be the largest such offering in history. At the Future Investment Initiative forum, the booth of Aramco was quieter than the one of the Public Investment Fund, Iain Martin writes in Forbes. Click here to read... [11]

Rare Earth Prices Stabilize As Global Production Dynamics Shift

The Rare Earths MMI (Monthly Metals Index) recently began to cool down following two months of bullish momentum. Altogether, the index dropped by about 3.39%. Many components of the index traded sideways, while some others, like praseodymium neodymium oxide, declined. That said, the index still holds the potential to move back up in the remainder of Q4. Meanwhile, the Myanmar mining ban could still cause rare earth buyers to stockpile as other nations, such as Vietnam, plan to step up their rare earth game. While China, the world’s #1 rare earth producer, saw its economy strengthen over the past couple of months, rare earth prices didn’t continue their heavy upward momentum month-on-month. Still, many factors remain at play in the global rare earths market outside of China, which continues to impact global trade and price dynamics. Vietnam contains the second-largest rare earth mineral reserves in the world after China. To harness the value of those reserves, the nation intends to significantly expand its rare earth sector. This includes plans to increase the yearly production of rare earth oxides from the 4,300 tons seen in 2022 to 60,000 tons by the end of this decade. However, these initiatives recently found themselves derailed after Vietnamese authorities arrested six individuals on suspicion of breaking mining laws. Click here to read... [12]

China says humanoid robots are new engine of growth pushes for mass production by 2025 and world leadership by 2027

The future of Chinese industry may rest on the shoulders of humanoid robots if the country can meet official new goals pushing mass production by 2025 and attaining world-advanced level in the technology by 2027. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), Beijing’s ministry overseeing the country’s industrial sector, published a nine-page guideline on its website on Nov 02, saying that China’s humanoid robots should “realise mass production by 2025”. MIIT said China would aim to “establish a humanoid robot innovation system, make breakthroughs in several key technologies and ensure the safe and effective supply of core components” by 2025. By 2027, humanoid robots should “become an important new engine of economic growth” in China, the ministry urged. The document required that by that time, “the technological innovation of humanoid robots will be significantly improved, a safe and reliable industrial supply chain system will be formed, an industrial ecology with international competitiveness will be constructed and our comprehensive strength will reach the world’s advanced level”. The document is China’s latest attempt to accelerate the development of its local robotics industry and promote tech self-reliance amid fierce competition with the US in key technology areas, such as chips. Click here to read... [13]

China turning US-sanctioned Xinjiang into a free-trade hub, strengthening geopolitical edge in region

A newly unveiled free-trade hub in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region will put the focus on “innovative” and “labour-intensive” manufacturing industries, as Chinese leaders look to turn the US-sanctioned region into an export gateway to Central Asia, South Asia and Europe.A pilot scheme will take hold in three parts of the country’s northwestern region – Kashgar, Khorgos and the capital city of Urumqi – and it could be up to five years before Xinjiang officially becomes a free-trade zone, according to a notice posted on the State Council website. “There will be more support to Xinjiang in undertaking what used to be the country’s eastern region’s focus in exports, especially labour-intensive industries,” the statement said. “Through integrating primary resources from Central Asia, and by processing innovative and advanced components from European countries, Xinjiang is capable of becoming an important industrial hub for Central Asia and Europe, while developing its specialised industries and boosting employment,” it added. The plan serves as the latest strategic move by Beijing to develop and repurpose the western region hit by Western economic sanctions in recent years. The new notice shows how Xinjiang is adapting, with greater emphasis placed on the region’s geographical advantage – notably its shared border with eight countries, including Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Pakistan, all of which are core to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Click here to read... [14]

Saudi Budget Deficit Blows Out to $9.5 Billion as Revenues Slip

Saudi Arabia posted a budget deficit in the third quarter that was almost seven times larger than in the previous three months, as the world’s biggest crude exporter endured a decline in both energy and non-oil income. The government’s shortfall came in at 35.8 billion riyals ($9.5 billion) in the three months ended in September, according to a budget report from the Ministry of Finance published late Nov 01. An 8% decline in expenditure to about $78 billion was outpaced by an almost 18% decrease in revenues that were $69 billion, largely due to lower receipts from oil and taxes. The quarterly deficit was more than twice as large as in the same period of 2022. Saudi Arabia’s $1.1 trillion economy suffered its biggest contraction since 2020 during the third quarter, after the kingdom cut oil production in July in a bid to push up prices. Output is now around 9 million barrels a day, about 1 million below the average over the past decade and expected to remain at similar levels until at least the end of this year. Oil revenues declined 18% to 147 billion riyals during July-September, according to the budget report. Income from non-oil decreased 17% to 112 billion riyals. Click here to read... [15]

US Imposes Sanctions on Myanmar’s Lucrative Oil Enterprise

The US announced partial sanctions against the Myanmar junta’s most lucrative state-owned enterprise, one of Washington’s most significant moves yet to curtail the military regime’s access to easy cash flow to buy weapons. The curbs by the US on Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise, or MOGE, prohibit Americans from the provision, exportation, or re-exportation of financial services, directly or indirectly, to or for the benefit of the company. It will come into effect on Dec. 15, the Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said in a statement. “MOGE provides hundreds of millions of dollars in foreign revenues every year to the military regime’s coffers, which the regime uses to purchase weapons and military material from abroad,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement. “Through the issuance of a financial services directive against MOGE, the United States seeks to disrupt the regime’s access to the U.S. financial system and curtail its ability to perpetrate atrocities.” Major General Zaw Min Tun, lead spokesman for the ruling State Administration Council, didn’t answer calls seeking comment. The sanctions follow repeated calls from rights groups and the military’s opponents in Myanmar to do so since the regime seized power in a coup nearly three years ago. Since then, violence has escalated as ethnic armed groups ramp up attacks against a regime seen losing ground across the country of 55 million people. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

China and US set for first nuclear non-proliferation talks in years

China and the United States will discuss arms control and nuclear non-proliferation next week in the first talks of their kind in over four years. The Chinese delegation will be led by Sun Xiaobo, who leads the foreign ministry’s arms control department, Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the ministry, told a news conference on Nov 02.The US will be represented by Mallory Stewart, the assistant secretary of state for arms control, verification and compliance, according to the Wall Street Journal. The American office Stewart heads is responsible for providing oversight of other countries’ arms control commitments. The last time such talks were held was in Beijing in July 2019, when Sun’s predecessor Fu Cong met Christopher Ford, the acting undersecretary of state for international security and non-proliferation. Officials responsible for arms control from the two sides also met in Beijing in 2016.Wang, the Chinese foreign ministry’s spokesman, said on Nov 02: “China and the US will discuss a wide range of topics, including non-proliferation, as required by international arms control treaties.” The meeting, to be held in Washington, is part of a series of discussions agreed after last week’s talks between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, with other talks covering issues such as maritime affairs and disability rights. Click here to read... [17]

Russia rules out new arms control deals with NATO

The Kremlin has formally withdrawn from a major Cold War-era arms control pact with the NATO military bloc, saying the outdated treaty was already dead for years and had completely “lost touch with reality” in the modern world. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced the move on Nov 07, saying the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) had “finally become history” after prior steps to withdraw, the first of which dates back to 2007. While it originally “played a certain stabilizing role,” the deal was largely ignored by NATO members and thus has “ceased to meet the interests of Russia,” the ministry said. “The authorities of NATO member states and client countries of this bloc have clearly demonstrated their inability to negotiate. At this stage, no agreements with them in the field of arms control are possible,” the statement added. “Only when life forces them to return to constructive and realistic positions could appropriate dialogue be revived as part of the effort to shape a new European security system.” Signed at the tail-end of the Cold War in 1990 and ratified two years later, the CFE was intended to limit the number of conventional arms deployed in Europe by both the NATO alliance and the former Warsaw Pact. Click here to read... [18]

China’s Xi Jinping says Communist Party control too weak in rural areas, new book reveals

Chinese President Xi Jinping thinks the Communist Party’s control over rural areas is insufficient and threatens stability, according to a new book published on the mainland. “There are some urgent problems in the countryside that need to be solved, such as the fact that grass-roots organisations are still weak and lax in some places,” Xi told a seminar of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), China’s top political advisory body, in March last year. His comments were disclosed in detail in the book published in late October.In statements made public for the first time, Xi said that in China’s rural areas, “religious, ‘underworld forces’ and other organisations have grown and spread, and have even taken control of village affairs and caused harm” and that “in some places, people don’t care about village affairs”.He also complained that in some villages, “cases of abduction and trafficking of women and children have occurred repeatedly” and that “moral standards have declined, integrity is not upheld, neighbourly relations are not harmonious, money worship and high ‘bride price’ are prevalent”. Published by the Central Party Literature Press, the book is a collection of Xi’s remarks since 2012 on how the party has governed at the community and village level. Click here to read... [19]

Bahrain recalls ambassador from Israel amid escalating assault on Gaza

Bahrain has confirmed that it recalled its ambassador from Israel, whose escalating war in Gaza has posed a challenge for regional governments that have pursued closer ties with Israel. Following an earlier statement from Bahrain’s lower house of parliament, the government confirmed on Nov 02 that its ambassador was returning and that Israel’s ambassador in Manama had left “a while ago”. The consultative parliamentary body – which has no powers in the area of foreign policy – said earlier in the day that economic relations with Israel had also been severed. But Israel said that ties with Bahrain were “stable”. The statement from the government in Manama made no mention of cutting economic relations, although it did say that flights between the two countries were temporarily suspended. The decision follows weeks of protests across the Middle East, where Israel’s bombardment of the besieged Gaza Strip has put warming relations with countries like Bahrain under pressure. Jordan also recalled its ambassador to Israel earlier this week. Over the last several years, states such as Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates have moved to normalise ties and increase economic and military cooperation with Israel. Those agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, have been strongly promoted by the United States, which has framed them as steps towards a more peaceful Middle East. Click here to read... [20]

Gaza could see return of PA in case of a ‘political solution’, says Abbas

The Palestinian Authority (PA) could return to power in the Gaza Strip only if a “comprehensive political solution” is found to the Israel-Palestine conflict, according to PA President Mahmoud Abbas. Abbas on Nov 05 met with the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is on yet another tour of the region as Israel’s deadly military campaign in Gaza nears a month. “We will fully assume our responsibilities within the framework of a comprehensive political solution that includes all of the [occupied] West Bank, including East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip,” Abbas was quoted as telling Blinken by the official Palestinian news agency Wafa. Israel says Hamas can no longer be left in control of the besieged enclave after the group’s October 7 attack that left about 1,400 Israelis dead – a sentiment backed by Washington. Hamas, considered a “terrorist” group by the US and the European Union, is a rival of Abbas’s Fatah party. Hamas took over Gaza from the PA in 2007, after being blocked from exercising real power despite winning a parliamentary election the previous year. Israel fully withdrew its troops and settlers from Gaza in 2005 but imposed a crippling blockade on the coastal territory after Hamas took power. Click here to read... [21]

US and Israel Weigh Peacekeepers for the Gaza Strip After Hamas

The US and Israel are exploring options for the future of the Gaza Strip, including the possibility of a multinational force that may involve American troops if Israeli forces succeed in ousting Hamas, people familiar with the matter said. The people said the conversations have been impelled by a sense of urgency to come up with a plan for the future of Gaza now that a ground invasion has begun. A second option would establish a peacekeeping force modelled on one that oversees a 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty, while a third would see Gaza put under temporary United Nations oversight. The people, who asked not to be identified discussing the sensitive matter, underscored that the conversations are still at an early stage and much could change. Some US officials consider the options premature or unlikely. But Secretary of State Antony Blinken alluded to the challenge on Oct 31 when he told a Senate panel that the US was examining a range options for the future of Gaza. “We can’t have a reversion to the status quo with Hamas running Gaza,” Blinken, who will travel to Israel on Nov 03, told the Senate Appropriations Committee. “We also can’t have — and the Israelis start with this proposition themselves — Israel running or controlling Gaza.” Click here to read... [22]

Israel’s Fight With Iran Proxies in Syria Poisons Russia Ties

Since it went to war with Hamas early last month, Israel has stepped up strikes against Iran-backed militias in Syria who have moved close to the Israeli border. The development comes with a key shift in Israeli policy — it no longer always tells Syria’s patron Russia in advance about attacks on Syrian territory. “As a general rule,” Israel isn’t informing Russia before its strikes in Syria, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said Nov 03, according to the Interfax news service. “We find out after they happen.” The change is worsening already troubled relations between Israel and Russia. And there’s a danger of Syria emerging as a new front in the Israel-Hamas war, a situation the US and regional allies are trying to avoid as they seek to contain the conflict. Tensions are already high on Israel’s border with Lebanon, Hezbollah’s base and from where it’s exchanging fire with the Israeli military on a daily basis. “Spillover into Syria is not just a risk; it has already begun,” Geir Pedersen, the United Nations special envoy for the country, said this week. “Fuel is being added to a tinderbox that was already beginning to ignite.” Click here to read... [23]

China and Russia take aim at U.S. at Beijing military forum

Chinese and Russian military chiefs targeted the United States for criticism at a security forum in Beijing on Oct 30, even as China's second-most-senior military commander vowed to boost defence ties with Washington. The lack of regular communications between the U.S. and Chinese militaries has been a persistent worry for Washington amid tensions between the countries and the risk of an accidental clash in the South China Sea or near Taiwan.The Beijing Xiangshan Forum, China's biggest annual show of military diplomacy, began Sunday without the country's defense minister, who typically hosts the event, but included a U.S. delegation amid roiling regional tensions. Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu warned the West that its involvement in the Ukraine war created grave danger. "The Western line of steady escalation of the conflict with Russia carries the threat of a direct military clash between nuclear powers, which is fraught with catastrophic consequences," Russia's TASS state news agency cited Shoigu as saying at the forum. Shoigu also said the West intends to inflict "strategic defeat" on Russia in a "hybrid war," and praised the model of Russia-China relations as "exemplary," Russian state media reported. Zhang Youxia, vice chairman under President Xi Jinping on China's Central Military Commission, delivered veiled criticism of the United States and its allies, accusing "some countries" of trying to undermine the government. Click here to read... [24]

Turkey and France jostle for Central Asia influence as Russia declines

Turkey and France are ramping up their charm offensives in Central Asia, traditionally under Russian influence, as Moscow's declining presence opens the door to a diplomatic tug of war. The Turkey-led Organization of Turkic States held its 10th summit Nov 03 in the Kazakh capital of Astana. The group of Turkic-language-speaking countries, which was renamed and strengthened in 2021, also includes Azerbaijan and former Soviet states Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. At the summit, leaders adopted 12 wide-ranging documents calling for broader economic, political, security and cultural cooperation. They urged an immediate ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas and expressed grave concern over the numerous civilian deaths in Gaza, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan calling it an "unprecedented human tragedy." The group agreed to promote the development the Middle Corridor, a transportation route between China and Europe, as well as its integration with a planned north-south route. On the cultural front, Erdogan proposed adopting a single common alphabet for all Turkic languages.The leaders of Turkmenistan and Hungary also attended the summit as observers. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, a self-declared state currently recognized only by Turkey, is also an observer in the organization but apparently did not send a representative. Click here to read... [25]

Taiwan opposition to team up for parliamentary elections

Taiwan’s two main opposition parties said on Oct 30 they will team up for parliamentary elections in January in a bid to win more seats but said more discussions are needed on a joint ticket for a presidential vote.Vice President William Lai, the presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has led in most opinion polls, leaving the candidates of the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), Hou Yu-ih, and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), Ko Wen-je, to battle it out for second place.The issue of China, which views self-ruled Taiwan as its territory, looms over the Jan. 13 parliamentary and presidential elections. It has stepped up military and political pressure to press the island to accept its sovereignty claim, which Taiwan rejects. China cut off routine talks with Taiwan after President Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP took office in 2016. The two opposition parties have vowed to pursue dialogue with China on an equal and dignified basis and “restore peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” The KMT and TPP, which have been discussing the possibility of teaming up, said after a meeting between their leaders on Oct 30 they would “support each other and maximize seats” in parliament to “deepen democracy.” But in response to questions from reporters about a joint presidential election ticket, the leaders said more discussions were needed to work out a plan on that. Click here to read... [26]

Russian help to boost North Korea bid to launch spy satellite--South Korea

North Korea is in the final stages of preparations for the launch of a spy satellite and the chances of its third attempt succeeding are high, South Korea’s intelligence agency said in a briefing on Nov 01, according to a lawmaker present. North Korea has also sent more than 10 shipments of munitions to Russia for use in the war against Ukraine, including over one million artillery rounds, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) was quoted as saying. That is roughly the supply of munitions that Russia expends in its war with Ukraine in two months, a member of the parliament committee Yoo Sang-bum said, citing the briefing. The NIS made the report in a closed-door parliament intelligence committee session. The shipments were made by vessels moving between a North Korean east coast port and Russian ports, as the United States previously reported, as well as by air out of North Korea, the spy agency said. “North Korea is running its munition factories to full capacity to meet demand for military supplies to Russia and even mobilizing residents and civilian factories to make ammunition boxes for exports,” Yoo told reporters, citing the NIS report. North Korea’s two attempts to launch its first reconnaissance satellite this year ended in failure as stages of the boosters experienced malfunctions. Click here to read... [27]

Maldives' new president set to take office as debt alarms intensify

When the Maldives' President-elect Mohamed Muizzu takes office on Nov. 17, he will immediately face a rising tide of warnings on the risk of a debt crisis in the Indian Ocean archipelago. The World Bank was among the latest to sound the alarm over the South Asian nation's ballooning foreign debt payments. Barely a week after Muizzu won the Sept. 30 presidential runoff against incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, the bank pointed out that by 2026, the $5.4 billion Maldivian economy will have to service a record $1.07 billion in external debt. The bank's latest assessment added to existing concerns about Male's obligation to spend an average of $300 million a year to service foreign debt from 2022 to 2024. The heavy burden places the strategically situated country among a growing group of Asian economies buckling under unsustainable debt, including Pakistan. The worst-case scenario was seen recently in nearby Sri Lanka, which defaulted last year. The Sri Lankan parallel resonates with many Maldivians who have either lived in their closest South Asian neighbour or have relatives there. "We know what happened in Sri Lanka not just through newspaper headlines but because we have close ties and knew how the economic collapse affected our close Sri Lankan friends," speaker of the parliament and former President Mohamed Nasheed said during an interview in the parliamentary complex. "We have learned a lot from Sri Lanka and we must be careful." Click here to read... [28]

Tokyo, Manila to upgrade ties to ‘quasi-alliance’ status

Japan and the Philippines have agreed to begin talks to upgrade their bilateral relationship to “quasi-ally” status. Visiting Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met here Nov. 3 with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The two leaders agreed to work toward signing a Reciprocal Access Agreement that would make it easier for members of the Self-Defense Forces and the Philippine military to engage in joint training exercises. This will also involve simplifying procedures to obtain visas as well as to bring in weapons and ammunition into each other’s country. Japan currently enjoys Reciprocal Access Agreements with Britain and Australia. The agreement with the Philippines is designed to counter advances being made by China. Japan, like the Philippines, is locked in a territorial dispute with China. In Japan’s case, it is over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. The Philippines has a similar dispute with China in the South China Sea. At a joint news conference here after the meeting, Kishida said, “We agreed to further strengthen cooperation between Japan, the United States and the Philippines.” Marcos said the Philippines and Japan share similar national security concerns. The United States has also been bolstering ties with allies to counter Chinese advances. Click here to read... [29]

Pakistan Begins Deporting Afghans Who Fled Taliban

Pakistan started rounding up tens of thousands of undocumented Afghans for deportation back to the country they fled, prompting fears that some awaiting resettlement to the U.S. could be swept up. Police raids took place across the country on Nov 01, the deadline for undocumented Afghans to leave. “By midnight tonight return to your homeland,” warned a police officer speaking into a mic in one neighbourhood in the port city of Karachi, television footage showed. Mosque loudspeakers repeated similar messages across the country. The deportation drive marks an about-face for Pakistan, which has for decades hosted millions of Afghans fleeing war and poverty. The repatriation comes after increasing attacks by Pakistani militants that Islamabad says are being harboured by the Taliban in Afghanistan since it took power in August 2021, following the U.S. withdrawal. Pakistan denies any link between the deportations and its enmity with the Taliban and says that it is cracking down on illegal immigration, as many Western nations do. “This is purely an administrative and legal matter,” said a senior Pakistani official. “This isn’t about refugees; it is only about those illegally resident here.” An estimated 1.3 million undocumented Afghans live in Pakistan, almost half of whom crossed the border after the Taliban took over, arriving as Pakistan spiralled into an economic crisis. Islamabad says it can no longer support this population. Click here to read... [30]

Israel-Gaza war: China’s stance belies years of cooperation, including arms deals, with Israel

China’s stance on the war in Gaza has disappointed Israel. As Israeli forces have conducted air strikes and land operations in retaliation for Hamas’ attack in early October, Beijing has repeatedly accused Israel of going “beyond self-defence” in its retaliation, and vetoed a US-led resolution in the United Nations that reaffirmed the “inherent right of all states”. But it was not always the case.Before the US-China rivalry significantly reshaped the superpowers’ relationship with each other and their allies, China and Israel enjoyed cosy ties and military links so close that Washington found it necessary to intervene. That relationship has faded in recent decades – Israel’s dependence on the United States and the structural contradictions in China-US relations gradually chipped away at the close strategic ties between China and Israel. With China-US competition set to stay, and possibly even further intensify in the foreseeable future, experts say that more frictions between China and Israel are inevitable. And the ongoing Israel-Gaza war brings extra complexity to Israel’s ties with Beijing. Israel’s foreign ministry expressed “deep disappointment” over China’s lack of condemnation of Hamas, and its envoy to the UN said he was “shocked to the core” while criticising the veto by China and Russia of the America can proposal at the UN Security Council. Click here to read... [31]

Pentagon unveils AI strategy to boost US ‘decision advantage’ in China competition

The Pentagon’s latest data and artificial intelligence strategy announced on Nov 02 will advance “better and faster” battlefield decision-making amid Washington’s strategic competition with Beijing. Deputy defence secretary Kathleen Hicks said the main reason to integrate AI into US military operations “responsibly and at speed” is “because it improves our decision advantage”. “From the standpoint of deterring and defending against aggression, AI-enabled systems can help accelerate the speed of commanders’ decisions, and improve the quality and accuracy of those decisions – which can be decisive in deterring a fight, and in winning a fight,” she said. Both the US and China have invested heavily to integrate AI into their militaries, against a backdrop of accusations by Washington that Beijing is behaving aggressively in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. The 26-page Data, Analytics and AI Adoption Strategy notes that the US needs to strengthen deterrence against China and other strategic competitors which “have widely communicated their intentions to field AI for military advantage”.Hicks said the Pentagon would pursue the adoption of AI and “keep doing more, safely and swiftly, given the nature of strategic competition with the PRC [People’s Republic of China], our pacing challenge”, adding that the US does not seek an AI arms race with China. Click here to read... [32]

Health

China’s world-leading cancer drug makes historic foray into the US amid medicine crisis

An innovative biopharmaceutical medicine from China has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to treat cancer, as the US turns to China to solve its cancer drug shortages. Toripalimab, an antibody drug developed by Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, received FDA approval on October 27 to treat nasopharyngeal carcinoma, an aggressive form of cancer that starts behind the nose in the upper part of the throat. This is the first – and currently only – drug that is approved by the FDA to treat that type of cancer. It is also the first Chinese antibody drug – the development of which requires huge investment and cutting-edge technology – to enter the US market. The US has been a world leader in biotechnology. American pharmaceutical giants dominate the medicine market at home and internationally. But in recent years, with a growing fear that the US could expand its sanctions from computer chips to life-saving medicines, the Chinese government and Chinese companies have massively increased investment in research and development of new drugs. Toripalimab, which will be marketed as Loqtorzi in the US, is an antibody drug for PD-1 – a checkpoint inhibitor on immune T-cells. Malignant tumour cells express a protein that binds to the PD-1 receptor and blocks the body’s immune response. Toripalimab is designed to bind to the PD-1 receptor instead, which allows the immune system to activate and kill tumours. Click here to read... [33]

Zimbabwe Starts Polio Vaccinations After Outbreak in Capital

Zimbabwe began a polio inoculation campaign after an outbreak of the virus that can cause the crippling disease, the Ministry of Health said. Vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 has been detected in three suburbs in the capital Harare, Health Minister Douglas Mombeshora said in an emailed statement on Nov 01. The rare strain stems from mutated live poliovirus, which is contained in the oral vaccine. In severely under-immunized populations, the virus can then pass between people who have not received the vaccine, allowing it to continue to change for a long period of time, and potentially regain its ability to paralyze.Re-emergence of the potentially deadly virus that spreads via the faecal-oral route has been seen in various countries, including in the US. That’s partly because global paediatric immunization has struggled to regain levels reached prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. Zimbabwe is offering adults that live in the epicentre of the outbreak vaccines and has rolled out mass immunization efforts in schools across the country, part of an incident management system that has been activated to ensure a coordinated response. Click here to read... [34]