Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (23-29 October 2023)

Economic

China Engages in First US Farm-Goods Signing Ceremony in Six Years

Chinese grain companies participated in a formal contract-signing ceremony for the purchase of US farm goods for the first time since the Trump-era trade dispute. Buyers including Sinograin and COFCO International signed 11 agreements with crop traders such as Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., Bunge Ltd. and Cargill Inc. during a forum in Iowa, according to a statement from the US Soybean Export Council on Oct 24. Such ceremonies were commonplace prior to the trade dispute that erupted during former US President Donald Trump’s tenure, with the last occurring in 2017. Although Chinese imports of US farm goods have rebounded in the ensuing years, the Asian nation has diversified sourcing and has been buying more from countries such as Brazil. Terms and timelines of the 11 nonbinding deals were undisclosed, although they represent “multiple billions in value,” Xie Feng, China’s ambassador to the US, said in the statement. Click here to read... [2]

US Demands Are Why Mineral Deal With EU Failed, Dombrovskis Says

The US and European Union were unable to reach an agreement recently on critical minerals because the US made extra requests beyond those in a deal that Japan and Washington signed earlier this year, according to EU Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis. The agreement with the US “would have been concluded by now” if it was based on the template of the Japan-US deal signed in March, Dombrovskis told reporters in Osaka on Oct 28. The difficulty was that “the US is coming with more far-reaching requests vis-a-vis the EU than it did vis-a-vis Japan,” he said on the sidelines of the Group of Seven trade ministers meeting. The critical minerals agreement was one of two deals that didn’t get agreed last week ahead of the US-EU summit, along with an accord on steel and aluminium. The question of securing reliable access to critical minerals has rapidly risen in importance, especially with recent Chinese moves to control and restrict exports of gallium, germanium and graphite, all of which are used in high-tech goods such as semiconductors or batteries. The EU will continue to monitor these Chinese export controls “closely” and discussed them with the Japanese, according to Dombrovskis, who was speaking after a meeting with Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura. Click here to read... [3]

Global Fossil Fuel Demand Set To Hit Record High In 2024

Global energy and fossil fuel consumption is set to defy wars and high prices and hit a record high level in 2024, led by strong Asian demand, the Economist Intelligence Unit said in a new report on Oct 25. Next year, global energy consumption is expected to increase by 1.8%, according to the EIU report.“Despite still-high prices and unsolved supply chain disruptions, demand for fossil fuels will reach record levels, but demand for renewable energy will rise by 11%,” the authors of the report wrote. Oil demand alone is expected to increase by 1.7% next year, per the report. Natural gas demand is set for 2.2% growth, led by Asia and the Middle East, while Europe will continue to see depressed demand as it looks to save gas and energy. Renewable capacity additions are set for a record high this year at around 400 gigawatts (GW) and will continue to rise in 2024, according to the report. Global oil demand is set to rise by 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to a new record-high this year and by another 2.2 million bpd next year amid an improving Chinese economy, OPEC said in its latest monthly report earlier in October, leaving its demand forecast for both 2023 and 2024 unchanged, despite fears of slowing economies and demand destruction. Click here to read... [4]

Gold rebounds to $2,000 amid Israel-Hamas war, U.S. debt turmoil

Gold prices are back on the rise as worries about the war in the Middle East and mounting U.S. debt drive investors toward safe assets. Gold futures prices in New York climbed as high as $2,003 per troy ounce at one point Oct 26, crossing $2,000 for the second time in a week -- a level last seen over two months ago -- and moving closer to the August 2020 record of $2,089. The metal had fallen to nearly $1,820 early this month. Unusually, gold is up alongside 10-year Treasury yields, bucking the usual inverse relationship. The benchmark 10-year yield has been hovering near 5% and even briefly topped that mark for the first time in 16 years. One of the two main risks pushing money into gold is the Israel-Hamas war, sparked by the Islamist militant group's Oct. 7 assault. Israel is preparing for a full-scale ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, which would bring the conflict into a new phase. Geopolitical risks that sour market sentiment turn gold, seen as a safe asset with inherent value due to its rarity, into a favourite destination of investors. The metal climbed to $2,078 in March 2022 soon after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, nearing the 2020 record. Click here to read... [5]

IMF: Japanese economy to drop to 4th in world, trail Germany

The International Monetary Fund has forecast that Germany will overtake Japan this year as the world’s third-largest economy. In its World Economic Outlook released this month, the IMF forecast that Japan’s nominal GDP will decrease 0.2 percent from the previous year to $4.23 trillion (630 trillion yen), while Germany’s will increase 8.4 percent to $4.43 trillion. That would push Japan to fourth place in the world. The yen’s recent depreciation against the dollar and Germany’s higher inflation rate than Japan had an impact, but Japan’s fall is also a result of years of accumulated differences in real economic growth rates. Nominal GDP is the total value added generated by each country, which represents the size of the country’s economy. It is affected by price fluctuations. When compared in dollar terms, the United States ranks first in the world, followed by China. Japan surpassed West Germany in 1968 to become the world’s second-largest economy. However, Japan was overtaken by China in 2010. More than half a century since 1968, Japan is projected to be eclipsed by Germany. The yen’s depreciation against the greenback has caused Japan’s nominal GDP to decline in dollar terms. At the beginning of last year, the Japanese currency was in the 110-yen range against the dollar. But it has remained at around 140-150 yen per dollar since June this year due to the widening interest rate gap between the United States and Japan resulting from differences in the two countries’ monetary policies. Click here to read... [6]

Musk to provide Starlink access to Gaza

Tech billionaire Elon Musk has said that he will provide satellite internet access to “internationally recognized aid organizations” in Gaza via his Starlink network. Phone and internet lines went down in the enclave after a heavy Israeli bombardment on Oct 27.Musk made his announcement on X (formerly Twitter) on Oct 28, stating that SpaceX’s Starlink division would “support connectivity” with the besieged strip. There are apparently a number of Starlink terminals in Gaza, but in a separate post on Oct 28, Musk said that none of these devices had attempted to communicate with the satellite network. “It is not clear who has authority for ground links in Gaza, but do we know that no terminal has requested a connection in that area,” he wrote on X. Internet and cell phone services stopped working in Gaza on Oct 27 night after a wave of Israeli airstrikes. Gaza’s largest telecommunications operator, Paltel, announced that its infrastructure had been totally destroyed in the bombing, which preceded the deployment of Israeli ground troops to the enclave. “The intense bombing in the last hour caused the destruction of all remaining international routes linking Gaza to the outside world,” the company said. The outage left news organizations and aid groups unable to reach their workers, with the UN children’s agency and Doctors Without Borders both reporting no contact from their employees. Click here to read... [7]

Ford, UAW reach tentative deal to end strike with record pay raise

The United Auto Workers (UAW) union reached a tentative labor deal on Oct 25 with Ford Motor, the first of Detroit's Big Three car manufacturers to negotiate a settlement to strikes joined by 45,000 workers since mid-September. The proposed accord, which UAW's leadership must still approve, provides a 25% wage hike over the 4 1/2-year contract, starting with an initial increase of 11%. The Ford deal, which could help create a template for settlements of parallel UAW strikes against General Motors (GM) and Chrysler parent Stellantis, would amount to total pay hikes of more than 33% when compounding and cost-of-living mechanisms are factored in, the UAW said. "We told Ford to pony up and they did," Fain said in a video post on Facebook, adding that the strike at Ford "has delivered."In addition to the general wage hike, Fain said the lowest-paid temporary workers would see raises of more than 150% over the contract term and employees would reach top pay after three years. The union also won the right to strike over future plant closures, he said. The UAW also succeeded in eliminating lower-pay tiers for workers in certain parts operations at Ford -- an issue Fain highlighted from the start of the bargaining process, wearing T-shirts with the slogan "End Tiers." Click here to read... [8]

Biden Will Sign Broad Order Regulating AI in US Government

US President Joe Biden will sign a wide-ranging directive on artificial intelligence on Oct 30, according to people familiar with the matter, as part of a broader pledge to steer AI models away from potential misuse before they’re released to the public. The White House will also be hosting an event on “safe, secure and trustworthy” artificial intelligence Oct 30, according to the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the information. Some executives from the tech industry will be in attendance. The executive order is expected to include new policies such as requiring AI models to undergo assessments before they can be used by federal agencies and easing visa requirements for overseas technology workers, the Washington Post reported earlier Oct 25. It is also expected to mandate assessments of government-purchased large language models — the technology that powers AI chatbots — through “red teaming” exercises undertaken by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, a laboratory operated by the Department of Commerce that sets technology standards for government and the private sector, according to the report. Further, the order could require government agencies including the Defense Department, the Energy Department and intelligence agencies to run assessments to determine how they may incorporate AI into their work. Click here to read... [9]

From EVs to digital, South Korea bags deals in tense Middle East

South Korea is strengthening business and economic ties in the Middle East, signing deals for electric vehicle manufacturing, digital development, energy, infrastructure and shipbuilding as it seeks fresh opportunities in a region it heavily depends on for oil and gas.The push is led by President Yoon Suk Yeol, who followed up a visit to the United Arab Emirates in January with a trip to Saudi Arabia and Qatar this week -- just as geopolitical tensions nearby spike in a stark reminder of the broader area's potential for instability. The government announced that South Korean and Saudi Arabian companies signed 46 deals at an investment forum in Riyadh, an event held on the sidelines of Yoon's state visit to the desert kingdom. The Federation of Korean Industries said that 135 South Korean business leaders participated in the forum. The agreements include a $500 million contract between Hyundai Motor and the Public Investment Fund (PIF). The car giant and PIF decided to set up a joint venture to construct a plant in Saudi Arabia to produce 50,000 vehicles -- both internal combustion engine and electric -- annually from 2026. The plan marks the global automaker's first assembly lines in the Middle East. Click here to read... [10]

Iran’s Oil Revenue Woes Deepen Amid Export Discrepancies

The head of Iran's Budget and Planning Organization says the government achieved only "around" 70 percent of its projected revenues for the first seven months of the current Persian calendar year, a rare admission of a significant state budget deficit. David Manzor told a press conference on October 24 that the government also failed to meet its target of exporting 1.5 million barrels of oil daily, helping create the budget shortfall. Addressing the reasons behind the shortfall, he refuted senior government officials' claims that Iran's daily oil exports had surpassed 1.8 million barrels and emphasized that the actual total of oil exports was "less than what was projected in the budget law."Manzor pointed out that the budget had anticipated oil revenues based on an "overestimated" price of $80 per barrel and daily exports of 1.5 million barrels. However, in reality, the oil price remained "below $80 for most months in question" and due to domestic market demands, especially during the summer, daily oil exports were "less than 1.5 million barrels."Another significant revenue gap was identified in the "income from the transfer and monetization of assets," which was projected to be one quadrillion rials ($2 billion). However, the actual revenue from this source in the first seven months was less than 100 trillion rials ($200 million), he said. Click here to read... [11]

Europe's Appetite For Turkmen Gas Boosts Trans-Caspian Pipeline Plans

Turkmenistan’s president is scheduled to travel to Turkey this week for talks expected to focus on natural gas transportation. For decades, thoughts about how to send Turkmen gas westward have centered around the need to build a trans-Caspian pipeline to Azerbaijan. Presumed resistance from Russia has long been the main perceived stumbling block. But that is only one part of the equation. For buyers in Europe to be able to import useful amounts of Turkmen gas, the capacity of the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline, or TANAP, which crosses the length of Turkey, will also have to expand substantially. Happily for that notion, Azerbaijan and Turkey agreed last year on a plan to expand annual capacity at TANAP from 16 billion cubic meters to 32 billion cubic meters. Speaking at an energy forum in Istanbul in October 2022, Turkey’s then-Energy and Natural Resources Minister Fatih Dönmez expressed confidence this increase could be implemented “in a short period of time.” Speaking to Turkish news agency Anadolu in June, Azerbaijan’s ambassador to Ankara predicted that the added capacity would enable Baku to up its Turkey-bound gas exports to 10.2 billion cubic meters per year. Another 12 billion cubic meters per year would be earmarked for Europe, the ambassador, Rashad Mammadov, told Anadolu. Click here to read... [12]

EU Unveils Global Gateway To Rival China's Belt And Road

The European Union has announced a raft of multimillion dollar deals at a forum for its Global Gateway program, the bloc’s new infrastructure partnership plan that’s seen as an alternative to China’s worldwide Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The first Global Gateway Forum kicked off in Brussels on October 25 and featured 90 top government representatives from more than 20 countries, including 40 leaders and ministers mostly from across the Global South. The 27-country EU announced that Global Gateway already had 66 billion Euros ($69.6 billion) in deals at the opening of the summit and proceeded to ink an additional 3 billion Euros ($3.2 billion) worth of new agreements with governments across Europe, Asia, and Africa during the multiday gathering to support projects related to critical raw minerals, green energy, and transport corridors. In her opening speech, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen vowed to pursue high-quality investments, saying that Global Gateway was a “better choice” for financing and building clean infrastructure.“Global Gateway is about giving countries a choice, and a better choice,” she said, adding that other investment options often come at a “high price” for the environment, workers’ rights, and sovereignty. Launched in late 2021 and championed by von der Leyen, Global Gateway has earmarked 300 billion Euros ($316 million) in a bid to streamline the EU’s investment and development cooperation across the globe. Click here to read... [13]

China Increases Bond Issuance to Help Its Economy

China ramped up efforts to stimulate its beleaguered economy, issuing additional sovereign bonds and raising its budget-deficit target, the first time it revised its budget outside the regular legislative session in more than a decade. The country’s top legislative body approved on Oct 24 a plan to raise 1 trillion Yuan, equivalent to around $137 billion, in additional sovereign debt, half for use before the end of this year and half for next year, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. Policy makers said the bond issuance was intended for infrastructure projects in the wake of severe flooding and other natural disasters, Xinhua reported. The latest stimulus, which follows a flurry of piecemeal measures such as interest-rate cuts and the lowering of mortgage costs for home buyers, signals that Beijing continues to worry about the weakness of the economic rebound it had counted on after doing away with all pandemic restrictions. mPart of the problem is a mounting debt burden for local governments in more areas of the country and a real-estate crisis that shows little sign of abating. Beijing has so far avoided offering support to households to help the economy transition into one more driven by consumption, in large part because of leader Xi Jinping’s focus on ideology and reluctance to resort to handouts to consumers. Click here to read... [14]

‘War of money’: can China drag rivals into bankruptcy in a new arms race with drones?

A new generation of high-speed, long-endurance drones powered by low-cost jet engines has entered military service in China, according to a lead scientist on the project. And part of their job is to lure the US, among other nations, into an arms race where the real trap lies in the budget. The thing that sets the new Chinese drones apart from other models is the low cost of their power source. The jet engines for military drones are expensive. The Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk, for instance, is powered by an AE3007 turbofan engine from Rolls-Royce which costs nearly US$4 million. Add to that the price of regular services and repairs that the engines require, and those costs end up even higher. But thanks to a recent technological breakthrough, the People’s Liberation Army can now get drone jet engines with superior performance at less than a fifth of the international price, engineering thermal physicist Zhu Junqiang said in a presentation about the project released by the Chinese Academy of Sciences on October 19.As the drones will be deployed in large numbers, the impact of the price gap between military budgets could be significant. Click here to read... [15]

Green Steel Is Coming. Europe Is Leading the Charge Thanks to New Carbon Taxes.

Steel is one the world’s most polluting industries, but Europe is leaping forward in making the metal green. By 2030, the continent is expected to be home to nearly 50 green and low-carbon steel projects, according to the Leadership Group for Industry Transition’s compilation of projects. In comparison, the U.S. only has two such projects. “There is certainly more investment in European green-steel capacity, driven by the fact carbon has a cost in Europe,” said Colin Richardson, steel lead at Argus Media, a commodities-pricing agency. “EU policy is essentially designed to mean that cost rises over time, incentivizing polluters to reduce the amount of emissions [allowances] they need to purchase.” Some of Europe’s push toward green steel is driven by policies, including the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which entered a trial phase on Oct. 1. CBAM eventually will require importers to pay the bloc’s carbon tax on select imports, including steel, if they are from countries where emissions aren’t similarly taxed. Free carbon allowances for EU steel producers are being phased out as the carbon border tax on imports is phased in. By the end of this decade, a quarter of Europe’s steel needs are going to be met from low-carbon sources, according to Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. In the U.S., just 10% is going to come from similar projects, according to research from the Rocky Mountain Institute, an energy think tank. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

UN Security Council Rejects Duelling Pushes to Pause Gaza Fight

The United Nations Security Council voted down duelling US and Russian resolutions that sought to pause the fighting between Israel and Hamas and open the flow of humanitarian aid, as pressure mounted on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to let food and medicine into the Gaza Strip. The council first rejected a US-backed resolution that called for measures including “humanitarian pauses” that would give UN agencies access to provide “essential goods and services important to the well-being of civilians in Gaza, including especially water, electricity, fuel, food and medical supplies.” The resolution gained the support of 10 of the council’s 15 members but Russia and China vetoed it. Then the council rejected a Russian-backed resolution that called for a broader cease-fire, with the US and UK vetoing it. Israel, the US and their allies say a cease-fire could allow Hamas to regroup, and that Israel has the right to respond to the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas that killed some 1,400 people.US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said the US was “deeply disappointed” that the US resolution was vetoed. “We must not be deterred,” she said, adding that the US is ready to work with other nations “to build a more peaceful and secure future for Israelis and Palestinians alike.” Click here to read... [17]

U.S., China Agree in Principle to Biden-Xi Summit

China and the U.S. moved closer to holding a summit between President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping after months of careful diplomatic manoeuvring to repair ties.Two days of meetings between Biden, members of his national security team and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi this week yielded “an agreement in principle” for a summit in San Francisco next month, a U.S. official said Oct 28. China’s Foreign Ministry, in its assessment of Wang’s meetings, said, “The two sides agreed to work together to achieve a meeting of the two heads of state in San Francisco.”A summit, should it occur, offers the U.S. and China a moment to reboot ties that earlier this year went into free fall and remain fractious as the two powers continue a global rivalry. Talks between Biden and Xi are the most important channel for setting the tone and agenda in the countries’ relations, according to officials on both sides, especially for China’s top-down driven system. The consensus reached during Wang’s Washington meetings Oct 26 and Oct 27 fall short of an ironclad guarantee of a summit, another U.S. official said. The U.S. is hosting an annual gathering of Pacific rim leaders in San Francisco in mid-November, providing a convenient time for a separate Biden-Xi summit. Click here to read... [18]

US to ‘modernize’ its top nuclear bomb

The US Department of Defense announced on Oct 27 a project to upgrade its main nuclear gravity bomb. The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) at the Department of Energy will develop the B61-13 munitions, pending the approval and funding by Congress. “The B61-13 represents a reasonable step to manage the challenges of a highly dynamic security environment,” Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb said. “While it provides us with additional flexibility, production of the B61-13 will not increase the overall number of weapons in our nuclear stockpile.”Plumb described the announcement as “reflective of a changing security environment and growing threats from potential adversaries.” The Pentagon, however, insisted that the decision was not made in response to “any specific current event” but “reflects an ongoing assessment” of the security environment, as described in the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review. According to the Pentagon, the B61-13 project would use the established production capabilities supporting the B61-12, with the “modern safety, security, and accuracy features” of the munitions, but the much higher yield of the B61-7 model. While the B61-12 is a tactical weapon, with a yield ranging from 0.3 to 50 kilotons, the B61-7 is a strategic bomb that goes up to 340 KT. Click here to read... [19]

Multiple US bases attacked with missiles and drones – media

Iran-backed militias have attacked four US bases in Iraq and Syria in a 24-hour period, Al-Mayadeen news reported on Oct 29. The attacks came after US forces launched airstrikes against Iranian targets in both countries. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced on Oct 29 that it had targeted the al-Shaddadi base in eastern Syria on Oct 28 with two drones, and launched rockets at another American base in the al-Omar oil field near Deir ez-Zor, Lebanon-based news channel Al-Mayadeen reported. The strike on the al-Omar base set off secondary explosions inside the facility, Al-Mayadeen’s sources said. The channel’s sources also said that missiles were fired at an American base in Kharab al-Jir in northeastern Syria. In Iraq, the Islamic Resistance said that its fighters had attacked the US base at al-Tanf, near the Syrian and Jordanian borders. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq is an umbrella term for Iranian- and Hezbollah-linked militias operating in the country. One of these groups, the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, told Al-Mayadeen that the attacks are a response to US support for Israel’s ongoing air and ground campaign against Gaza. The militias have carried out near-daily strikes on US bases in Iraq and Syria since Hamas fighters launched their surprise attack on Israel on October 7. Click here to read... [20]

What do we know about Israeli captives taken by Hamas and their release?

More than 200 people are believed to be held captive by Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups in Gaza after the deadly attacks inside Israel on October 7. Hamas said the attacks, which killed more than 1,500 Israelis, were aimed at ending “Israeli violations” at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, Islam’s third holiest site, and to secure the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons. Since then, Israel has been pounding Gaza with nonstop aerial strikes, killing over 8,000 people, including over 3,000 children, and has launched a ground offensive. So what do we know about the captives, and how many of them have been released? What are the chances for the release of the others? What do we know about Israel’s planned offensive? The latest figure given by Israel’s military on Oct 22 was 239 people, including military personnel, were being held captive in the besieged enclave. Hamas said on Oct 23 an estimated 50 captives have been killed by Israeli air strikes. Earlier, they had said 20 captives had been killed. “The murdered and the missing come from over 30 countries, including the United Kingdom,” British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told lawmakers this month. We don’t have all the details about the captives yet, but officials from different countries have provided some information. Click here to read... [21]

Israel enters 'second stage' of war with Gaza ground assault

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Oct 28 that Israeli forces had unleashed the second phase of the Gaza war as they pressed ground operations against Hamas militants, vowing to "destroy the enemy above ground and below ground."Gaza's besieged people had barely any communications with the outside world as Israeli jets dropped more bombs on the Hamas-ruled Palestinian enclave and military chiefs said a long-threatened ground offensive was gearing up. Speaking at a news conference in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu warned that the war would be "long and hard" and reiterated Israel's appeal to Palestinian civilians to evacuate the northern Gaza strip where Israel was focusing its attack. He vowed that every effort would be made to rescue the more than 200 hostages held by Hamas."This is the second stage of the war whose goals are clear -- to destroy Hamas' governing and military capabilities and to bring the hostages home," Netanyahu told reporters."We are only at the start," he said. "We will destroy the enemy above ground and below ground."Israel has blockaded and bombarded Gaza for three weeks after the Islamist group Hamas' Oct. 7 assault killed 1,400 Israelis in the deadliest day of the nation's 75-year history. Click here to read... [22]

China's Li Qiang calls for progress on Central Asia railway

Chinese Premier Li Qiang called for accelerated cooperation on a planned international railway linking China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan during a visit to the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek on Oct 25, Russian and Chinese state media reported. China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan reached a basic agreement in September 2022 on an international railway connecting the three countries. Construction was expected to begin this fall, but China reportedly decided to postpone the project due to differences over construction cost sharing. With a struggling economy, Kyrgyzstan is unable to bear the huge expense of the project. The country already has significant external debt after receiving massive aid loans from China. Constructing the new railway could increase its reliance on Beijing. The planned railway, part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, would have a total length of 454 kilometers and is expected to cost $3 billion to $6 billion. It is part of China's outreach to resource-rich Central Asia, a region long under Russian influence that is seeking to improve its connections with the global economy.The primary overland route from China through Central Asia to Europe and the Arabian Sea now runs mostly through Kazakhstan. Achieving rail transport through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan would help increase transport volume and contribute to the development of routes that avoid Russia. Click here to read... [23]

China crackdown on cyberscams in Southeast Asia nets thousands but leaves networks intact

Zhang Hongliang, a former restaurant manager in central China, took various gigs in and outside China to support his family after losing his job during the COVID-19 pandemic. In March, a job offer to teach Chinese cooking at a restaurant led him into a cyberscam compound in Myanmar, where he was instead ordered to lure Chinese into giving up their savings for fake investment schemes via social media platforms. Zhang is one of tens of thousands of people, mostly but not all Chinese, who have become ensnared in cyberscam networks run by powerful Chinese criminal syndicates in Southeast Asia. Regional and Chinese authorities have netted thousands of people in a crackdown, but experts say they are failing to root out the local elites and criminal networks that are bound to keep running the schemes. When scam operations are shut down in one place they often just resurface elsewhere. The problem is an embarrassment for Beijing and is discouraging ordinary Chinese from travelling to Southeast Asia out of fear they might be duped or kidnapped and caught up in a cyberscam operation. In recent years, media reports have uncovered instances of young people being lured to places in Cambodia or Myanmar for high-paying jobs, only to be forced to work as scammers. Rescue organizations say people are regularly beaten or face physical punishments such as being forced to run laps if they don’t perform well. Click here to read... [24]

Anchor of Chinese container vessel caused damage to Baltic connector gas pipeline, Finnish police say

Finnish investigators said Oct 24 they believed an anchor of a Chinese container ship was dislodged and caused the damage to the undersea Baltic connector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia on the Baltic Sea earlier this month. The National Bureau of Investigation, a branch of the Finnish police, said that it has evidence and data pointing to the Hong Kong-flagged cargo vessel New Polar Bear as the culprit in damaging the pipeline running across the Gulf of Finland. Detective Superintendent Risto Lohi, NBI’s head of the investigation, said in a news conference on Oct 24 that a 1.5 to 4-meter-wide dragging trail on the seabed is seen to lead to the point of damage in the gas pipeline. That trail is believed to have been caused by a heavy 6-ton anchor which the Finnish Navy retrieved late Oct 23. “There are traces in the (anchor) which indicate that it has been in contact with the gas pipeline,” Lohi said, citing data from expert analysis. Whether the pipeline damage was intentional, unintentional or caused by “bad seafaring” is subject of the next phase in the probe, officials said. On Oct. 8, Finnish and Estonian gas system operators said they noted an unusual drop in pressure in the pipeline after which they shut down the gas flow. Click here to read... [25]

Bangladesh's opposition supporters clash with police as tensions run high ahead of general election

Police in Bangladesh's capital fired tear gas to disperse supporters of the main opposition party who threw stones at security forces during a massive rally demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the transfer of power to a non-partisan caretaker government to oversee general elections next year. At least one policeman died and dozens of others were injured, alongside scores of opposition supporters, police and witnesses said. Dhaka police spokesman Faruk Hossain told The Associated Press that violence late Oct 28 raged in at least 10 spots in Dhaka, where security forces confronted opposition activists who attacked them, vandalized vehicles and torched vehicles. An opposition spokesman, Zahiruddin Swapan, said more than 1 million activists joined their rally, but Hossain put the number at about 200,000. The violence broke out at the Kakrail area in Dhaka when activists of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia allegedly attacked a bus carrying the ruling Awami League's members to a separate rally a few blocks away, witnesses and media reports said.Footage on Somoy TV station showed a roadside police box was on fire, torched vehicles and shattered glass from a building. Violence spread by Oct 28 afternoon as security officials fired sound grenades and tear gas at the rally venue where Zia's supporters chanted anti-government slogans. Click here to read... [26]

Sudan warring sides resume peace talks in Saudi Arabia

Sudan’s warring parties have resumed negotiations in Saudi Arabia aimed at ending the war that has killed more than 9,000 people and displaced some 5.6 million since April. The deadly war between forces loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who commands the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has devastated the country. The United States and Saudi Arabia brokered the mediation efforts, which have had limited effect, yielding brief truces that were systematically violated. The warring sides announced on October 25 that they had accepted an invitation to resume negotiations. The talks are taking place “in partnership” with representatives of the African Union and the East African bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), led by close US partner Kenya, according to Riyadh. “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia welcomes the resumption of talks” between the warring sides, the host country said in a statement. The statement called on negotiators to abide by an earlier agreement announced on May 11 to protect civilians, as well as a short-term ceasefire agreement signed on May 20.“The Kingdom affirms its keenness on unity of ranks … to stop the bloodshed and alleviate the suffering of the Sudanese people,” the statement said. Click here to read... [27]

Turkey quietly celebrates 100-year anniversary as a republic

Turkey is commemorating its 100-year anniversary as a republic, but many of the festivities planned for Oct 29 have been called off against the backdrop of Israel’s escalating attacks on the besieged Gaza Strip. The low-profile affair shows the far-reaching impacts of the bloody Israel-Hamas war, but also brings up uncomfortable divisions within Turkish society over the state’s secular legacy, elements of which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sought to challenge. On Oct 29, Erdogan laid a customary wreath at the mausoleum of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Turkey’s revered founding father. “Our country is in safe hands, you may rest in peace,” he said. Erdogan was scheduled to travel to Istanbul afterward to watch a procession of military ships on the Bosporus, followed by a drone and fireworks show. He was expected to deliver a speech marking the milestone, to play up his government’s accomplishments. However, Turkey cut down on much of the fanfare expected for the once-in-a-century event. It held no official state reception and cancelled special TV coverage of planned concerts and festivities, citing the “alarming human tragedy in Gaza”. Erdogan’s appearance at a pro-Palestine rally in Istanbul the day before also partly eclipsed the centennial. There, he accused Israel of behaving like a “war criminal” and said there was a “vicious massacre happening in Gaza”. Click here to read... [28]

Beijing, Asean to start on third reading of South China Sea code of conduct

Beijing and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have agreed to start on the third reading of a long-delayed code of conduct for the South China Sea amid rising tensions in the disputed waterway. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning on Oct 26 said Beijing and the regional bloc would “accelerate negotiations so as to strive to reach at an early date an effective and substantive” code of conduct. The comments came a day after senior officials from the region held talks in Beijing. Hong Liang, director general of the Chinese foreign ministry’s Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs, co-chaired the meeting. Mao said China and Asean members had an “in-depth exchange of views” on the situation in the South China Sea and officials agreed to deepen cooperation in areas including maritime scientific research, environmental protection, and maritime law enforcement activities. “Parties were of the view that upholding peace and stability in the South China Sea is of vital importance and called on all sides to exercise restraint, strengthen exchanges, and handle differences appropriately, so as to safeguard maritime stability,” she said. Progress on the code of conduct has been slow but countries have made efforts in recent months to accelerate negotiations. Click here to read... [29]

Race to Fix Crumbling Ship Threatens Conflict in South China Sea

Even as concerns mount in the US over a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the flashpoint most likely to spark a conflict between the world’s largest economies is currently an immobile World War II-era ship sitting in waters further to the south. Recent months have seen water cannon fire, repeated close encounters and diplomatic protests, as the Philippines, a treaty ally of the US, has pushed back against recurring Chinese incursions in its exclusive economic zone. Matters came to a boil last weekend when boats from the two countries collided on two separate occasions as the Philippines attempted to resupply the dilapidated ship it has used to reinforce its territorial claims. China has repeatedly accused Manila of infringing on its territorial sovereignty while Philippine officials, emboldened by an increasingly assertive President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., are weighing how best to add military heft to future missions. The US, for its part, has clarified its commitments to the Philippines and President Joe Biden was unequivocal in his comments earlier this week. “I want to be very clear: The United States’ defence commitment to the Philippines is ironclad,” he said Oct 25 at the White House. The Philippines is not the only nation at risk as the US accuses China of repeated incidents between its two militaries. Click here to read... [30]

Trump Ally Mike Johnson Elected House Speaker, Shifting GOP Further Right

Republicans installed little-known Trump ally Mike Johnson as US House speaker, cementing the party’s rightward shift and ending a messy three-week succession fight that paralyzed legislative work. His election Oct 25 culminates a historic struggle among GOP factions that ousted speaker Kevin McCarthy and derailed three potential successors. The bitter infighting prevented the House from acting on emergency aid for Israel and Ukraine, and on funding to avert a US government shutdown next month.The elevation of the 51-year-old Louisiana congressman — who was a prominent supporter of Donald Trump’s efforts to deny Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory — is a triumph for cultural and economic conservatives as the party navigates tensions between an emerging populist wing aligned with Trump and establishment Republicans. Johnson, first elected to Congress in 2016 as Trump was swept into the White House, becomes speaker with the least Washington experience in generations. He takes on the role after the party repudiated the nominations of its second- and third-ranking leaders to succeed McCarthy. Johnson repeatedly invoked his religious faith in a speech on the House floor that nodded to the realities of lawmaking while committing to a conservative agenda. “We have to sacrifice sometimes our preferences — because that’s what’s necessary in a legislative body — but we will defend our core principles to the end,” Johnson said. Click here to read... [31]

Health

Displaced Palestinians in overcrowded UN schools face outbreak of disease

Days after a UNRWA school in the central Gaza Strip was hit by Israel, killing at least six people, clothes and blankets still hang from the windows and balconies of its other schools, turning the traditional white and blue colours of the United Nations Palestinian refugee agency into a patchwork of bright colours. The schools have become places of refuge for hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, many of whom believe that the UN designation of these buildings will keep them safe from the constant Israeli bombardment. According to the UNRWA, more than 613,000 of 1.4 million internally displaced people in Gaza are sheltering in 150 of its facilities across the blockaded territory. But severe overcrowding, a lack of privacy and inadequate sanitation have put these schools at risk of a prolonged and severe public health crisis, adding pressure to the already overloaded healthcare system which doctors and the health ministry describe as being in a state of total collapse. And now, with the bombing of the school in the al-Maghazi refugee camp, in which dozens were injured, it is clear that schools may not be the places of sanctuary humanitarian agencies hoped for.“This is outrageous, and it again shows a flagrant disregard for the lives of civilians,” Philippe Lazzarini, UNRWA Commissioner-General, said. “No place is safe in Gaza any more, not even UNRWA facilities. Click here to read... [32]

Injected version of Eisai/Biogen Alzheimer's drug effective

An injected version of Eisai and Biogen's Alzheimer's drug Leqembi works as well as the current intravenous administration at removing toxic brain plaques, but rates of serious side effects were higher, according to an analysis presented by Eisai on Oct 25.The Japanese drugmaker's review compared data for 72 patients with early Alzheimer's given Leqembi by subcutaneous injection to prior pivotal trial results from 898 patients who received the drug by infusion. The intravenous (IV) form of Leqembi won U.S. approval based on that larger 18-month study showing the drug, which works by removing sticky clumps of beta amyloid from the brain, slowed cognitive decline by 27% for people with early Alzheimer's disease. A weekly shot form of Leqembi, given as two consecutive injections, could simplify use of the groundbreaking Alzheimer's treatment, potentially allowing patients to receive the drug at home instead of traveling to an infusion center twice a month. The latest data, presented at the Clinical Trials on Alzheimer's Disease meeting in Boston, showed that after six months of treatment, the shot form of Leqembi removed 14% more amyloid than the approved IV formulation. Blood concentration levels of the drug were 11% higher with subcutaneous Leqembi than the IV version. Click here to read... [33]