Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (09-15 October 2023)

Economic

Starving Afghan earthquake survivors face reality of aid shortfall

The earthquakes that have devastated Afghanistan in recent days have compounded an already dire humanitarian crisis, with aid organizations, Taliban officials and affected families all raising the alarm. Afghanistan's western province of Herat was rocked by major temblors on Oct 07, killing over 2,400 people and injuring thousands more. Another large earthquake struck the region on Oct 11, adding to the fear and misery. For five nights, many families slept under makeshift plastic coverings as they await proper tents, food and blankets. Others sleep under the open sky in temperatures that can drop to the single digits, while their children go hungry. But there is little money to support such efforts. Even before the earthquakes, aid agencies were facing a serious shortage of cash. Last month, the World Food Programme said it had to drop 10 million Afghans from emergency assistance due to a "massive funding crisis." Philippe Kropf, head of communication for the WFP Afghanistan, who was on the ground in Herat, said in a video posted on X on Oct 11, "Those who have survived have no home to return to and they are terrified and hungry." He added that this comes at a time when "one third of the country does not know where their next meal will come from." Click here to read... [2]

The Oil Price Has a Safety Valve. Gas Doesn’t.

The impact of war in Israel on the global economy might be clearer in electricity bills than prices at the pump. The old reflex when tensions rise in the Middle East is to worry about oil. But the bigger price moves this week have been in natural-gas markets, which have no plan B when supply is hit. Brent crude has risen 6% since Hamas attacked Israel Oct 07 in an assault that killed 1,300 people. Despite its immense human cost, the fighting hasn’t had any impact on the global oil supply so far, though that could change if the conflict spreads, especially if Iran gets involved. Meanwhile, Europe’s TTF natural gas benchmark has surged more than 40% this week. The Israeli energy ministry asked Chevron to stop production at the Tamar offshore gas field, west of Haifa, because of the conflict. Also, a gas export pipeline that runs to Egypt close to Gaza has been closed. The shutdowns will have some impact on regional energy balances, and potentially Egypt’s exports of liquefied natural gas, if they go on for a long time, according to Zongqiang Luo, analyst at Rystad Energy. But the effect on global LNG supply looks limited. However, there was also a reminder this week of how vulnerable energy infrastructure is as the world becomes more unstable, when suspected sabotage caused a leak in a Baltic undersea gas pipeline. Click here to read... [3]

Norway Beefs Up Oil And Gas Security After Suspected Pipeline Sabotage

Police in west Norway have increased security measures and patrols at and around oil and gas infrastructure, after the suspected sabotage of the gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia in the Baltic Sea, a police representative told Norwegian daily Bergensavisen (BA). “We have increased our focus on preventive patrolling at oil and gas installations in our area,” operations manager Helge Blindheim in the West police district told BA in Bergen, which is home to or close to many oil and gas installations. The West police district in Norway is closely following the situation, Blindheim told BA. After the Nord Stream sabotage last year, Norway posted soldiers from its Home Guard to protect energy infrastructure as Western Europe's largest oil and gas producer. The deployment of the soldiers came after Norwegian police requested assistance from the Army to prevent incidents. Securing and guarding critical civil and military infrastructure is one of the Home Guard’s core tasks, the Norwegian Army said in October 2022. After a leak of suspected unnatural causes shut down the Balticconnector offshore pipeline between Finland and Estonia this weekend, Norway hasn’t resorted to similar measures, yet. One year after the Nord Stream pipeline blasts, the specter of sabotage on critical energy infrastructure in Europe is back. Click here to read... [4]

Food Is Hot Campaign Issue in Elections From Argentina to Poland

Whether it’s bread or onions, food has the power to make or break a country’s leadership. How nations secure their staples is looming large in elections across the world with war in Ukraine and now the Middle East. Starting with New Zealand and Poland this weekend, at least a quarter of the global population will head to the polls over the next eight months or so. Those countries will be followed by Argentina, the Netherlands and Egypt, and then Indonesia and India in 2024. Among them are some of the top suppliers of everything from rice and palm oil to milk and soymeal. Others are strategic locations for the flow of staples like wheat. Politicians have an eye on two core constituents: consumers and producers. Some governments aiming to stay in power are restricting exports of foodstuffs, proposing measures to protect rural communities, or slowing the pace of climate policies that would affect farmers. Food is just one of a long list of electoral issues, but it has global repercussions. The politics threaten to impact global trade, prices and the economies of import-dependent nations. Erratic weather, meanwhile, has ravaged agricultural land from the US to China, and the phenomenon known as El Niño is back, risking further damage to crops. Then there’s war. Click here to read... [5]

China saves billions of dollars from record sanctioned oil imports

China has reaped savings this year of nearly $10 billion through record purchases of oil from countries under Western sanctions, according to Reuters’ calculations based on data from traders and shiptrackers. An unintended consequence of sanctions imposed by the United States and others on Russia, Iran and Venezuela has been to lower the oil import costs for refiners in top economic rival China, which often criticizes such “unilateral” penalties. Reuters’ analysis of China’s savings on oil purchases from the three sanctioned countries compares what Chinese importers would have paid by purchasing similar grades from non-sanctioned producers. The lower-priced imports have been a boon by bolstering throughput and margins for the world’s second-largest oil consumer and refiner, especially small independent operators known as “teapots,” and facilitating lucrative exports by state-owned refiners of diesel and gasoline as the country faces economic headwinds. China’s purchases are also a revenue lifeline for Moscow, Tehran and Caracas, whose economies are otherwise curtailed by Western sanctions and a decline in investment. China shipped in a record 2.765 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude by sea from Iran, Russia and Venezuela in the first nine months of 2023, according to an average of data provided by tanker trackers Vortexa and Kpler. Click here to read... [6]

Russia’s economic growth to beat EU and US – NYT

The Russian economy has proved to be much more resilient than many Western governments expected after the sweeping sanctions intended to cripple it were imposed, the New York Times reported on Oct 09. Since the beginning of the military operation in Ukraine Russia’s economy has had to adapt to the dramatic changes with “astonishing speed,” the outlet wrote. The EU, once Russia’s biggest trading partner, has severed traditional economic ties, upending well-established supply chains, while the US “used its financial might” to freeze hundreds of billions of dollars in Russian assets and cut the country off from the global financial system. According to the article, the West's “punishing” restrictions have in reality only helped Russia restructure its economy as the country “pumped money” into various industries at a rapid pace “putting almost every available worker into a job and raising the size of weekly paychecks.” “Total output, which the Russian Central Bank estimates may rise as much as 2.5% this year, could outpace the European Union and possibly even the United States,” the NYT noted. The central bank’s projection is close to the latest forecast by the International Monetary Fund, which expects Russia’s GDP to grow 2.2% this year, a sharp increase from its previous prediction of 1.5%. Click here to read... [7]

China’s US$1.35 trillion sovereign fund boosts stake in Big Four banks, fuelling speculation on stock market intervention

China’s US$1.35 trillion sovereign wealth fund is increasing its equity stakes in the nation’s four biggest banks, stoking speculation authorities are trying to shore up confidence in the market after an exodus of foreign funds and a slump in the local currency. Central Huijin Investment, which owns strategic stakes in local financial institutions, picked up additional domestic shares in Industrial and Commercial Bank, Construction Bank, Bank of China and the Agricultural Bank of China, according to stock exchange filings late on Oct 11. The purchases, which would have cost about 477.5 million yuan (US$65.4 million) based on their closing prices on Oct 11, may be symbolic. While they only boosted Central Huijin’s shareholding in each lender by 0.01 percentage point, the wealth fund would be raising its stakes further over the next six months, the banks said in their respective filings.“ This move, reminiscent of its actions during the 2015 Chinese equity market turmoil, signifies the government’s desire to maintain market stability,” Redmond Wong, China strategist at Saxo Capital Markets in Hong Kong, said in a note to clients. This proactive stance is expected to enhance sentiment, he added. Central Huijin, a vehicle under China Investment Corp, undertakes domestic equity investments in state-owned financial institutions, without interfering in their daily operations. Click here to read... [8]

China’s new party finance organ gets to work while concerns over stability loom

China’s newly chartered Central Finance Commission started daily operations in late September – an indication of the severity with which the world’s second-largest economy is viewing a property crisis and its potential spillover effects on the state-controlled financial system, according to a source with knowledge of the matter. The commission was set up in March as part of a sweeping plan of institutional overhaul, granting the Communist Party more control in key domains like finance and tech. It is under the direct supervision of the party’s top decision-making body, the Central Committee, and serves as the primary planner for the country’s financial system. The new organ will oversee all matters under the pecuniary umbrella, including overall stability, funding for the real economy and the overseas use of the yuan. The commission has set up a general office on Beijing’s Financial Street, with the office’s day-to-day operations conducted under Vice-Premier He Lifeng, the source said. It is hundreds of metres away from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) – the country’s central bank – and 2km (1.2 miles) from Zhongnanhai, the compound that houses the leadership of the party and government. More than 100 officials have been transferred from the central bank, securities and banking regulators, the person said on condition of anonymity given the matter’s sensitivity. Click here to read... [9]

Japan to defend chips, other tech with new economic security plan

Japan's government will release an economy security plan this month meant to protect vital industries like semiconductors and advance cooperation with international partners. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on Oct 12 held the first panel meeting on the topic. Panel members included industry representatives, such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries President Seiji Izumisawa. Some of the economic security measures will be reflected in a stimulus package to be finalized by the end of October. "It is no exaggeration to say that the concept of economic security is a determining factor in national power and the fate of the nation," Yasutoshi Nishimura, minister of economy, trade and industry, said at the meeting. The three-pronged plan will present measures for supporting industry, protecting industry and promoting international coordination, according to an outline presented Oct 12. Areas of technology covered by the plan will encompass semiconductors, quantum computing, decarbonization and biotechnology. Support should include subsidies and tax breaks, according to the document. The document notes the importance of securing supply chains for critical minerals and other industrial supplies. It calls for using measures like export controls to defend industry alongside support. On international cooperation, the document calls for working with partners to confront economic coercion, such as unilateral trade restrictions and forced technology transfers. Click here to read... [10]

China to join monitoring of Fukushima water release

China, a fierce critic of Japan’s discharge of treated water from the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, will join the monitoring of radioactive substances in seawater and seafood products in the area. Japan said on Oct. 11 that such analyses by the International Atomic Energy Agency and a third-party institution formed by China, South Korea and Canada will start on Oct. 16. Although a third-party analysis of radioactive concentrations in the ocean and marine products has been conducted since 2015, this will be the first time for China to participate in the monitoring. According to the Secretariat of the Nuclear Regulation Authority, the IAEA and the third-party institution will collect samples of seawater, seabed soil, fish and seaweed for preliminary processing between Oct. 16 and Oct. 23. They will compile a report over around one year. It will be the first analysis by the IAEA and others since the water was first released from the nuclear plant in August. The study will involve the most samples and types of radioactive substances. The IAEA chose the third-party analysis institution, consisting of the Third Institute of Oceanography of China’s Ministry of Natural Resources, the Korea Institute of Nuclear Security, and Health Canada, a department of the Canadian government. Click here to read... [11]

The Oil Industry And OPEC Will Attend COP28 Climate Summit

Representatives from the oil industry and from OPEC will attend the COP28 climate summit in Dubai next month, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Oct 10. “The oil industry will be at COP and we will be there,” Al Ghais said at an energy event in Fujairah, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as carried by Reuters. OPEC’s secretary general will also attend the climate summit, he said. “I hope all voices will be at the table at COP28,” Al Ghais said. COP28 President-Designate is Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and group CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), one of the biggest national oil companies. At the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi last week, Al Jaber called on the oil and gas industry to play a crucial role in progressing decarbonization and the energy transition. “This industry can and must help drive the solutions. For too long, this industry has been viewed as part of the problem, that it's not doing enough and in some cases even blocking progress,” Al Jaber said at the opening of the energy conference. OPEC’s Al Ghais, for his part, wrote in OPEC’s annual World Oil Outlook published this week that “Calls to stop investments in new oil projects are misguided and could lead to energy and economic chaos.” Click here to read... [12]

Wall Street’s Surprising Quest for Ways to Finance Coal Again

Since the 2015 Paris climate agreement, “blacklist coal” has become a mantra across much of the finance industry. Banks have stopped providing loans to coal projects, insurers are backing away, and investors are pulling out. Yet over the same period, demand has soared to a record high, helping triple prices for the world’s dirtiest commodity. Against that backdrop, financiers and nonprofits from around the world are teaming up to develop alternative strategies. The first step, they say: Bring coal back into mainstream finance. The goal is to develop accounting methods that allow lenders and investors who fund coal to document that they’re helping producers transition to a greener business model or nudge mines and coal-fired plants into early retirement. If they can demonstrate that their financial support leads to less pollution than business-as-usual would, they’d get to claim the benefits on their carbon ledger. Proposals include so-called transition credits, a type of carbon offset that the Monetary Authority of Singapore wants to link to the phaseout of coal-fired power plants. Another idea, from the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (Gfanz), in cooperation with big financial institutions and technical experts at nonprofits, would be an experimental metric called expected emissions reductions, or EERs. And the Rockefeller Foundation is building what it calls a coal-to-clean-carbon credit program. Click here to read... [13]

Yellen Resists Pressure for Reform of IMF Voting Shares

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen showed little willingness to embrace reforms at the International Monetary Fund that would give China and other developing countries significantly more say in how the world’s go-to emergency lender is run. The Biden administration would “support a quota formula that better reflects the global economy, but change on this can only happen within an agreed-on framework based on shared principles,” Yellen said in the text of remarks she delivered Oct 10 as global finance officials gathered in Marrakesh, Morocco. The outdated distribution of IMF quotas — which represent a country’s share of the institution’s resources and align closely with voting rights — is expected to be a source of major debate here this week at the annual gathering of the World Bank and IMF. Countries like China, Brazil and India — whose economies have grown significantly faster than those of developed nations - have long clamored for a re-division of quotas to reflect their growing heft. China, for example, accounts for about 18% of global economic output, but holds just a 6% share at the IMF. Tatiana Rosito, a senior official in Brazil’s Finance Ministry told Bloomberg News last week the lack of reform was pushing the so-called BRICS nations to fund development through institutions like the Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Click here to read... [14]

Putin Says Russia Needs Stronger Ruble to Meet Budget Needs

President Vladimir Putin said Russia restored capital controls on major exporters because “we need the ruble a little stronger” for the government’s budget needs. The measure obliging companies to sell foreign currency revenue for the next six months will have an effect on the market, Putin told reporters at a news conference Oct 13 in Kyrgyzstan, after a CIS summit of leaders of ex-Soviet states. The decision was “the result of a compromise” reached by the central bank, the government and the presidential administration, he said. “In present conditions, companies prefer to leave part of their revenue abroad and that’s the whole point,” Putin said. “The volume of imports grew and the desire to leave revenues abroad increased,” and regulation “will definitely have to be improved somehow,” he said. The government announcement citing an unpublished presidential decree late Oct 11 requires 43 groups of exporter companies, including Russia’s main oil producers, to sell their earnings from sales abroad on the domestic market for rubles to ensure a supply of foreign exchange. Under the rules, the authorities will set volumes and other details of the mandatory-sales mechanism, with some companies required to report on their transactions to authorities. Click here to read... [15]

U.S. investors still have appetite for delisted China stocks

Didi Global and other Chinese companies forced off of U.S. stock exchanges have found a new home for their shares in the country: the over-the-counter market. In OTC trading, also known as off-exchange trading, shares change hands between buyers and sellers directly. There are fewer disclosure requirements for companies trading this way than on major exchanges, but the pool of potential investors tends to be more restricted. Shares in ride-hailing giant Didi, which delisted from the New York Stock Exchange a year ago, can now be bought via a platform provided by OTC Markets Group, a U.S. financial services company. Didi's market capitalization currently stands at around $15.6 billion, just a fraction of its peak of $80 billion on the NYSE, Refinitive data shows, while its average daily trading this year is $39 million, compared to $4.45 billion at its peak when it was publicly listed. Luckin Coffee, which operates a chain of coffee shops, delisted from Nasdaq in 2020 following an accounting scandal. Like Didi, its shares are now available via OTC Markets. Its average daily trading value has been around $46 million so far this year, compared to a peak of $2.66 billion in January 2020, five months before the delisting. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Israel has right to self-defense – Putin

Israel “certainly” has the right to defend itself against Hamas’ brutality, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said. Only peaceful coexistence with a Palestinian state, as proposed by the UN, can resolve the conflict in the long term, he believes. The Russian leader reiterated Moscow’s concern over the escalation of violence in the Middle East, stressing that thousands of Israeli and Palestinian civilians have been killed or injured since last Saturday when Hamas launched a surprise incursion out of Gaza. Israel was subjected “to an attack that was unprecedented in its brutality, and it certainly has the right for defense, to ensure its peaceful existence,” the Russian leader said. Putin reiterated his position that the ongoing crisis was caused by a failure of US foreign policy. “The Americans, supported by their European satellites, tried to monopolize the Middle East settlement, but did not care about finding a compromise that both sides would find acceptable.” “The one-sided US line over many years pushed the situation further into a dead end,” Putin added, noting that Israel’s “settlement activities” contributed to the disruption of the peace process. Reports that Israel may soon launch a ground operation in Gaza have further fueled Russia’s concerns, according to the president. Click here to read... [17]

China Defends Position on Hamas War in Talk With Israel’s Envoy

China made its first public contact with Israel since last weekend’s attack by Hamas, hours after the Israeli ambassador called on Beijing to engage in talks around the conflict. Zhai Jun, China’s special envoy on Middle East issues, said the country condemns actions that lead to the death of civilians, according a Foreign Ministry statement on his call with an Israeli foreign ministry official. China is also willing to work with the international community toward peace talks, it said. “China has no selfish interests on the Palestinian issue and has always stood on the side of peace, fairness and justice,” the statement said. The statement also cited the Israeli foreign affairs official as saying that Israel will step up efforts to protect Chinese citizens in Israel. Three Chinese nationals had been killed and two went missing in the attacks, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a regular press briefing on Oct 12. Several other Chinese nationals were injured. Israel’s ambassador to China called on Beijing earlier Oct 12 to leverage its close relationship with Iran to rein in Hamas, saying the government needed to be engaged in talks around the conflict. “We really hope China can be much more involved in talking to its close partners in the Middle East and particularly Iran,” Irit Ben-Abba told Bloomberg TV in an interview Oct 12. Click here to read... [18]

Hezbollah Says Ready to Act as Iran Diplomat Meets Militants

Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group said it was prepared to act against Israel over its war in Gaza after its sponsor, Iran, warned the continued blockade of the Palestinian enclave could open up a new front in the conflict. “We are fully prepared — when the time comes — for any action that we will carry out,” Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qasem said, according to the group’s Al Manar TV station. Israel is preparing for a possible ground offensive in Gaza after last weekend’s attacks by Palestinian militant group Hamas. Iran is a major supporter of Hamas but has repeatedly denied involvement in the unprecedented assault that killed more than 1,200 people, many of them civilians. However, Oct 13’s comments from Hezbollah and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian signal a possible expansion in the war, potentially to Israel’s febrile northern border with Lebanon. Amirabdollahian held talks in the Lebanese capital Beirut with Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, which fought a month-long war with Israel in 2006. The two discussed “everyone’s responsibilities and the positions that need to be taken with regards to these historical events and developments,” according to a Hezbollah statement. Amirabdollahian later also met with senior officials from Hamas and Islamic Jihad, another Palestinian militant group, a ministry statement said. Click here to read... [19]

US sends second aircraft carrier to Israel’s aid

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered an additional aircraft carrier to deploy to the Eastern Mediterranean, seeking to put pressure on Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and other pro-Palestinian forces to stay out of the Israel-Gaza war. The Pentagon chief announced on Oct 14 night that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrying nine aircraft squadrons, as well as two guided-missile destroyers and a guided-missile cruiser, will soon join the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group in the region to “deter hostile actions against Israel or any efforts toward widening this war following Hamas's attack on Israel.” “The increases to US force Posture signal the United States' ironclad commitment to Israel’s security and our resolve to deter any state or non-state actor seeking to escalate this war,” Austin stated. In a phone call with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant earlier in the day, Austin “provided updates” on Washington’s “efforts to continue flowing air defense capabilities and munitions to the Israel Defense Forces,” but also emphasized the “importance of adhering to the law of war, including civilian protection obligations, and addressing the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza while Israel continues its operations to restore security.” The US administration has so far ruled out sending military personnel into Gaza as part of any Israeli ground operation or attempt to free American hostages there, only aiding the IDF with intelligence and operation planning. Click here to read... [20]

Saudi Arabia shelves Israel peace deal – Reuters

Saudi Arabia has suspended plans to normalize relations with Israel amid the latter’s ongoing war with Palestinian Hamas militants, Reuters reported on Oct 06. Backed by the US, the deal would have been a diplomatic coup for Washington and a strategic blow to Iran. Prior to Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on Oct 07, Saudi Arabia and Israel were drawing close to a deal that would have seen the Sunni kingdom recognize the Jewish state, with Saudi Arabia gaining a defense pact with the US and more advanced American weapons in exchange, although the White House stressed that the precise terms had yet to be worked out. With Israeli warplanes continually bombing Gaza since Oct 07 and an invasion of the Palestinian enclave reportedly imminent, Saudi officials paused the deal to avoid setting off a wave of anger across the Muslim world, Reuters reported, citing two sources close to Riyadh. The sources stressed that the deal is not permanently scrapped, but that Riyadh will likely require any future agreement to include significant concessions to the Palestinians from the Israeli side. Nearly 2,000 people, including 583 children, have been killed in Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, according to the latest figures from the Palestinian Health Ministry. More than 1,300 Israelis have died since Oct 07, and more than 100 are believed to be in Hamas captivity in Gaza. Click here to read... [21]

Muslims Across Middle East Rally in Support of Palestinians

Supporters of Palestinians gathered across the Middle East to protest after Oct 13 prayers in a show of solidarity as Israeli forces prepared to launch a ground invasion against militant group Hamas in Gaza in response to last weekend’s deadly attack on Israel. Israel’s air strikes in the Gaza Strip have stoked concern and anger among Arabs and others in the region over the humanitarian situation in the Palestinian territory. Under siege, Gaza is running out of food, water, electricity and fuel, while Palestinians trying to flee to safety have nowhere to go. Tens of thousands of protesters rallied in Tahrir Square in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad, burning large Israeli flags. In Iran, which supports Hamas with arms, training and money, crowds of thousands carried banners reading “Down with Israel” and waved Palestinian flags. The Iran-backed Hezbollah movement in Lebanon held a rally in the southern suburbs of Beirut. “The issue of Palestine will not end by destroying Gaza,” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi told a crowd in southern Iran. “The people of Palestine and the world will hold you accountable because we consider defending Palestine as our duty,” he said, according to Iranian state media. Protests also erupted at Cairo’s Al Azhar mosque, the seat of Sunni Islamic learning, despite Egyptian restrictions on demonstrations. Smaller crowds gathered in the Persian Gulf states of Bahrain and Qatar, and in Tunisia. Click here to read... [22]

Russia, China, U.S. and more woo Central Asia with summit diplomacy

A recent flurry of summits with Central Asian leaders by Russia, China, the U.S. and Germany underscores the intensifying battle for influence in a region expected to play an increasingly important role in international trade. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct 12 arrived in Kyrgyzstan in his first known trip outside Russia and Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory this year. He had avoided overseas travel since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest in March for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Western countries are trying to "bring pressure to bear" on all of Russia's partners, Putin said Oct 13 at a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States, a group of former Soviet republics formed after the Soviet Union's 1991 collapse. He urged the other seven leaders to continue forging closer ties going forward. The trip reflects anxiety about Moscow's declining influence among ex-Soviet countries since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Moldova has begun withdrawing from the CIS, and Armenia -- which has criticized Moscow for its inaction in Armenia's ethnic conflict with Azerbaijan -- was absent from Oct 13's summit. America and Europe have taken this opportunity to ramp up diplomacy with the Central Asian countries of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan to undermine Russia's sphere of influence. Click here to read... [23]

New Zealand PM-elect Luxon, National leaders to start planning coalition

Senior members of New Zealand's National Party will meet on Oct 15 to plan forming a coalition government after the center-right party and its preferred partner won a razor-thin electoral victory that could be eroded when the final votes are tallied. Prime Minister-elect Christopher Luxon, 53, a former airline executive who has only been in parliament for three years, said National's strategy team would gather behind closed doors in the afternoon to map out how to approach negotiations. "We are going to deliver a strong and stable government that is going to get things done," Luxon told a press conference in Auckland a day after Oct 14's election. He said he had spoken with the leader of the conservative ACT New Zealand, David Seymour, twice on Oct 14 and believed the two parties would work constructively. National won 50 seats and ACT 11, securing a majority of just one seat in the 121-seat parliament, according to provisional results from the Electoral Commission. While the election produced a notable swing from left to right, Bryce Edwards, a research fellow at the school of government at Victoria University of Wellington, said he did not expect a radical right-wing government in any significant sense. "It's just so opaque at the moment," Edwards said. National "will be coalescing with the ACT party and also with New Zealand First and we just don't know yet what dynamic that's going to bring." Click here to read... [24]

China to host Belt and Road forum in Beijing Oct. 17-18

China will host its third Belt and Road Forum next week, its foreign ministry said on Oct 11, a President Xi Jinping signature event that President Vladimir Putin is due to attend on a rare trip abroad. The conference in Beijing on Oct. 17-18 marks the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) championed by Xi, with representatives from many developing countries, notably from Latin America and Africa, expected to attend. Putin attended the two previous forums, in 2017 and 2019, and the Kremlin said in September he had accepted an invitation to the forum and for talks with Xi. The Russian leader is not known to have gone abroad since the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for him in March over the deportation of children from Ukraine. Putin is expected to visit Kyrgyzstan on Oct 12, before the Beijing meeting. Neither Kyrgyzstan nor China are members of the ICC, which was established to prosecute war crimes. The BRI is a plan for global infrastructure and energy networks that China launched a decade ago to connect Asia with Africa and Europe through land and maritime routes. But critics see the plan - billed as recreating the ancient Silk Road to boost global trade - as a tool for China to spread its geopolitical and economic influence. Click here to read... [25]

Taiwan seeks ‘peaceful coexistence’ with China, president says

Taiwan seeks “peaceful coexistence” with China with free and unrestricted interaction but the island will be democratic for generations to come, President Tsai Ing-wen said in her last National day speech on Oct 10. Taiwan, claimed by China as its own territory, has come under increasing military and political pressure from Beijing, including two major sets of Chinese war games near the island since August of last year, heightening fears of a conflict which would have global ramifications. Tsai, who cannot stand again as president at elections in January after two terms in office, has repeatedly offered talks with China, which has rejected them as it views her as a separatist. Speaking in front of the presidential office, Tsai said the strength of international support for Taiwan had reached an “unprecedented height”. “Since this is a time we can now face the world with confidence and resolve, we can also be calm and self-assured in facing China, creating conditions for peaceful coexistence and future developments across the Taiwan Strait,” she added. Tsai said it was her duty to safeguard Taiwan’s sovereignty and its democratic, free way of life, seeking “free, unrestricted, and unburdened interactions” between Taiwan and China’s people. Differences between Taiwan and China must be resolved peacefully, and maintaining the status quo is “critical” to ensuring peace, she added, to a big round of applause. Click here to read... [26]

Philippines in historic US-backed military base expansion

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr is overseeing a historic expansion in military cooperation with the United States, putting the Southeast Asian nation on a collision course with China in the South China Sea. A new report by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington DC shows in graphic detail how the Philippines is rapidly upgrading a whole host of military bases under its Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the US Pentagon. Combining open-access information, public statements by senior Filipino officials and high-resolution satellite imagery, AMTI has tracked accelerated construction activities across as many as nine EDCA bases across the Philippine archipelago. The report also shows that, despite the vehement opposition by former Filipino president Rodrigo Duterte (2016-22), who favored closer ties with Beijing and often lopped politicized broadsides against the traditional allies in the US and West, infrastructure upgrades in some military bases date as far back as 2016. Crucially, EDCA bases close to the disputed South China Sea have seen the most dramatic upgrades, with the Basa Airbase in Pampanga, which is close to the hotly contested Scarborough Shoal, receiving more US funding for expansion than all other facilities. The Antonio Bautista Air Base also “received significant upgrades to its runway and aircraft storage facilities since 2016,” according to the ATMI report. Click here to read... [27]

Are Cold War Treaties Beginning To Crumble?

The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The Treaty on Open Skies. New START. For years, the pillars of international arms control have been crumbling: agreements signed by Washington, Moscow, and others during and after the Cold War aimed at reducing the threat of nuclear war, costly arms races, or overall military tensions. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty may be the next to go. Signed in 1996, the treaty was a major step to preventing the spread of nuclear weapons technology and keeping a lid on the arsenals of the world's biggest nuclear powers. Along with earlier treaties, the agreement, known as the CTBT, also aimed to reduce the spread of radioactive material that was blasted into the atmosphere and the oceans during the frenzied days of the Cold War. Here's the problem: The treaty never went into effect because a number of countries, including the United States, never ratified it. Still, most signatories -- including Russia and the United States, whose arsenals are by far the biggest in the world -- have abided by the ban. Now, however, Russia is making noises about backing out and "de-ratifying" the treaty. Click here to read... [28]

Biden Considers Israel Visit, Warns Against Gaza Occupation

US President Joe Biden weighed a trip to Israel while he cautioned against long-term Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip on Oct 15, as the White House sought to balance support for the country with fears that the regional crisis could escalate. No decision about whether to travel to Israel had yet been made, according to two people familiar with the internal discussions. A spokesperson for the National Security Council said the White House didn’t have a trip to announce. But the possible trip — and acknowledgment of concerns voiced by Palestinians in Gaza and Arab leaders across the region — were the latest signal that the US was trying to keep the crisis from further escalating. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will make an unscheduled return to Israel on Monday following talks with Arab officials, as administration officials warned Iran against any involvement. Biden stressed his belief that Israel would act by the rules of war and that innocent civilians would have access to medicine, food and water in an interview with CBS News’s “60 Minutes.” He said he didn’t believe Israel should control the territory long-term, saying instead the territory should be governed by “a Palestinian authority.” “I think it’d be a big mistake,” Biden said. “Look, what happened in Gaza, in my view, is Hamas and the extreme elements of Hamas don’t represent all the Palestinian people.” Click here to read... [29]

When China’s military lagged behind US, it pursued an ‘assassin’s mace’ tactic. Smart weaponry and AI are changing that

The Chinese military raised eyebrows in Washington with its “assassin’s mace” weapons that aimed to blunt the United States’ cutting-edge advantage at a time when Beijing’s technology trailed behind its competitor. The term, which refers to a weapon from ancient Chinese folklore that targets an enemy’s fatal weakness, has been applied by Chinese state media to the “carrier killer” DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile that debuted in 2015 and by American military analysts to describe sea mines more than a decade ago. It is a war concept not confined to China, having been deployed to target or exploit a bigger opponent’s weakness throughout history and across the world. But the concept of individual and specific weapons for use in asymmetrical warfare – in which one side is perceived to be far stronger than the other – may have fallen out of favour in Beijing, particularly since the Chinese military has developed more sophisticated mechanisms and logistics and in an era of smart armaments. As the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) technological ambition has grown, especially under current leader President Xi Jinping, Beijing is broadening its military technology focus to advances that can be used across different combat situations, such as employing artificial intelligence, autonomous cars and aircraft, and electronic warfare that disrupts enemy equipment using the electromagnetic spectrum. The United States is also paying attention to the shift in focus. Click here to read... [30]

China’s General Liu Zhenli likely to step in for missing defence minister at security forum as US military talks resume

General Liu Zhenli is expected to play a central role at a Beijing-organised security forum later this month as China resumes high-level military communications with the United States, according to observers and sources. Li, the chief of staff of the People’s Liberation Army joint staff, is likely to become the face of the PLA in its meeting with US representatives at the Xiangshan Forum following the unexplained disappearance of China’s defence minister Li Shangfu. The resumption of high-level military communication between China and the US would also pave the way for a potential meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of next month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in San Francisco, defence analysts added. The Chinese defence ministry last month confirmed the Xiangshan Forum, dubbed Beijing’s answer to the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, was scheduled for October 29 to 31 and would be held in person for the first time since 2019. “Beijing takes the face-to-face meeting at Xiangshan Forum very seriously, as it will be the first step in the resumption of engagement between Chinese senior generals and their US colleagues,” said Zhou Chenming, a researcher at Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank in Beijing. Click here to read... [31]

China’s graft-busters to ‘delve deep’ in new round of corruption inspections

China has begun a new round of corruption inspections looking for “potential major risks”, soon after a months-long crackdown that focused on the financial, sports and medical sectors. Li Xi, chief of the country’s top graft-buster, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, said the CCDI would “delve deep” during the inspections that will target five government departments and 26 state-owned enterprises. The list of targets released by the CCDI after a meeting on Oct 12 suggests a focus on the tech sector. The five departments are the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence, and the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration. SOEs in the car, steel, shipping, airline and publishing sectors are also in the cross hairs. Follow-up inspections will also be carried out in the state monopolised railways sector after crackdowns in recent years brought down senior officials including Sheng Guangzu, the former minister of railways and general manager of China Railway Corp. “China’s high-quality development can only be achieved when the bottom line of security is ensured,” Li told the meeting on the next round of inspections, according to state news agency Xinhua. It is the second round of inspections since the ruling Communist Party held its national congress in October last year. Click here to read... [32]

Health

Time running out at Gaza hospitals amid power blackout after Isreali siege

With a power blackout enveloping the Gaza Strip, Israeli missiles bombarding the blockaded enclave are no longer the only sounds of death. In hospitals, the beeping of life-saving machines is, to many, also a reminder of increasingly perilous survival. These machines could, at any moment, fall into a haunting silence. Across the Gaza Strip, hospitals are on the brink of running out of spare fuel, after the Palestinian territory’s sole power station stopped functioning on Oct 11 following Israel’s refusal to allow supplies of fuel. In a statement to the media earlier on Oct 11, Ashraf Al Qidra, spokesperson of the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza, explained that Israel’s blockade and the refusal to allow fuel into Gaza are pushing “our medical operation into a precarious situation”. Without quick action to restore power, the situation in the hospitals is poised for a “huge loss of these lives”, he said, a stark warning of the potential consequences of the continued power shortages. At the heart of this crisis are the intensive care units, where thousands of injured people are struggling for their lives. A significant number of them rely on electricity-powered oxygen generators to breathe and survive. Beyond ICUs, the blackout has also hit efforts to provide aid and maintain emergency communication systems online across the devastated Strip. All of this is deepening a humanitarian crisis. Click here to read... [33]