Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (25 September- 01 October 2023)

Economic

Most Russian oil exports bypassing price cap – FT

The EU and G7 countries have largely failed to enforce a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports, Financial Times reported on 25 Sept, citing an analysis of shipping and insurance records. In August, around three-quarters of Russian oil was reportedly being shipped overseas without Western insurers, which was considered one of the tools helping to limit the price at which Russian crude was being sold on the global market. About half of Russian oil exports did not use Western insurance services during the entire spring, according to Kpler data, as cited by the media, suggesting Moscow “is becoming more adept at circumventing the cap.” Meanwhile, global prices for crude are on the rise, nearing 13-month highs. Brent futures for November delivery were trading at $93.51 per barrel on 25 Sept, while US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) climbed above $90 per barrel. Russian crude was no exception, with the Far Eastern blend ESPO trading at over $88 per barrel, and with Urals crude above $78 per barrel. In June, US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo claimed that the price cap imposed by the Western allies in December was working as intended. “In just six months, the price cap has contributed to a significant decline in Russian revenue at a key juncture in the war,” he said. Click here to read... [2]

EU launches world’s first carbon border tax

The EU launched the first phase an emissions tariff scheme on Oct 01, with a planned import tax on steel, aluminium, cement and fertilisers, as part of its bid to become a climate-neutral region. During the first phase, until 2026, Brussels does not plan to collect any CO2 emissions charges at the border. Until then the system will collect data on carbon-intensive imports. EU importers are now obliged to report the greenhouse gas emissions embedded in the production of imported iron, steel, aluminium, cement, electricity, fertilisers and hydrogen. Starting on January 1, 2026, they will have to buy certificates to cover these CO2 emissions. This will inevitably increase the final cost of produce imported by the bloc, reducing their competitiveness compared to goods manufactured domestically. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is supposed to prevent more polluting foreign products from undermining the green transition. The measure will potentially protect local producers from losing out to foreign competitors, while they invest in meeting EU targets to cut the bloc's net emissions by 55% compared to 1990 levels, by 2030. According to European Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, the goal of the new policy is also to encourage a global shift to greener production and prevent EU producers from relocating to nations with a less strict environmental regulatory base. Click here to read... [3]

China seeks tighter developing-nation ties as decoupling hedge

China unveiled a new diplomatic approach on Sept 26 aimed at strengthening relations with developing countries as a bulwark against "drawbacks" stemming from foreign companies decoupling from Asia's biggest economy. Said to be the brainchild of President Xi Jinping, the over 14,000-word policy titled "A Global Community of Shared Future" called for the removal of protectionism and for major countries to assume greater responsibility for world peace and development. Its release came as China's growth slows due to weaker global demand and declining domestic business confidence in its domestic market. "The concept reflects China's willingness to strengthen solidarity and cooperation globally, especially with developing countries," Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters in Beijing. The policy noted that rising tensions against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, emerging flashpoints and some countries seeking to decouple from China are among the big changes not seen in a century. "The security deficit is glaring," it continued. "Due to more intense global strategic competition and lack of mutual trust between major countries, the Cold War mindset has re-emerged, and calls for ideological confrontation have resurfaced," it said in a jab at the U.S. and its allies. U.S.-China tensions and China's slowing growth are among the reasons for plunging business confidence, according to a report released last week by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. Click here to read... [4]

EU, China rein in trade angst, set agenda for further dialogue

The European Union agreed to resume dialogue and set up dispute settlement mechanisms to remain a part of China's "success story" despite unresolved economic concerns, but it stopped short of halting trade remedies even as Beijing urged restraint. "EU companies want to be part of China's success story, which is why it's important we devoted time to discuss the business environment," EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis told China's economy tsar, following an afternoon of talks covering market access issues and other trade barriers. The 27-member bloc has long complained about the lack of a level playing field in China and the politicization of the business environment. The world's second-largest economy remains central to European firms' supply chains, but executives are growing uneasy as the economy falters and geopolitical tensions rise. The EU's trade deficit with China widened to $276.6 billion in 2022 from $208.4 billion a year earlier, Chinese customs data show. China said after the talks that it would be willing to take more European exports. "China hopes the EU will exercise restraint in the use of trade remedy measures and stabilize the expectations of China-EU trade development," Vice Premier He Lifeng told the joint news conference at Beijing's Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, where foreign dignitaries are often received. Click here to read... [5]

Japanese scientists find microplastics are present in clouds

Researchers in Japan have confirmed that micro plastics are present in clouds, where they are likely affecting the climate in ways that are not yet fully understood. In a study published in the journal Environmental Chemistry Letters, Japanese scientists climbed Mount Fuji and Mount Oyama in order to collect water from the mists that shroud the peaks, then applied advanced imaging techniques to the samples to determine their physical and chemical properties. The team identified nine different types of polymers and one type of rubber in the airborne micro plastics, which ranged in size from 7.1 to 94.6 micrometres. Each litre (0.26 gallon) of cloud water tested contained between 6.7 to 13.9 pieces of the plastics. “If the issue of ‘plastic air pollution’ is not addressed proactively, climate change and ecological risks may become a reality, causing irreversible and serious environmental damage in the future,” lead author of the research, Hiroshi Okochi of Waseda University, warned in a statement on 27 Sept. When micro plastics reach the upper atmosphere and are exposed to ultraviolet radiation from sunlight, they degrade, contributing to greenhouse gasses, Okochi said. Microplastics – which are defined as plastic particles under 5 millimetres that come from industrial effluent, textiles, synthetic car tires, personal care products and other sources – have already been discovered inside fish, peppering Arctic sea ice, and in the snows on the Pyrenees mountains between France and Spain. Click here to read... [6]

The War in Ukraine Is Also a Giant Arms Fair

The Panzerhaubitze howitzer is part of an arsenal of weapons being put to the test in Ukraine in what has become the world’s largest arms fair. Companies that make the weapons being used in Ukraine have won orders and resurrected production lines. The deployment of billions of dollars’ worth of equipment in a major land war has also given manufacturers and militaries a unique opportunity to analyze the battlefield performance of weapons, and learn how best to use them. For all the Panzerhaubitze’s technical prowess, the war has shown the importance of being able to fix weapons on the battlefield. A simpler howitzer, the M777, has proven more reliable, but also more vulnerable to attack. Debate around the performance of the two howitzers, and many other weapons, could help shape military procurement for years to come. At a major arms fair in London this month, exhibitors said they were frequently asked about the performance of their weapons in Ukraine. The U.S. and European nations have sent billions of dollars’ worth of equipment to Ukraine from existing military stockpiles, and countries are now starting to replace some of that inventory amid a broader rise in military spending. Global military spending rose for the eighth consecutive year in 2022 to a record high of $2.24 trillion, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think tank. Click here to read... [7]

U.S. to propose military AI norms at U.N. next month

The U.S. is expected to pursue a resolution on international norms for artificial intelligence in weapon systems in a key United Nations committee next month, looking to lead global rulemaking, a senior State Department official told Nikkei. "There's a recognition that we need to really try to, at minimum, develop some norms, because there's nothing that's out there right now," Bonnie Jenkins, the department's top diplomat for arms control and international security, said of military AI rules in a recent interview with Nikkei. "We have to have something that can try to regulate, or have things that countries should be thinking about -- or industry or whatever should be thinking about -- in terms of how they start using emerging technologies," Jenkins said. The U.S., China and others are developing AI-enabled weapon systems and platforms for future battles. The U.S. has successfully tested a modified F-16 fighter jet flown by AI, a Pentagon-affiliated institution said in February. China reportedly has developed a fully autonomous helicopter drone that has been exported to the Middle East, according to the Congressional Research Service. Jenkins said the U.S. would push for international norms on military AI at the First Committee of the United Nations General Assembly in October, adding that Washington's goal is "to have a rollout of it, coming up, hopefully early in November." Click here to read... [8]

China looks to relax rules for some data exports

China on Sept 28 proposed relaxing some rules concerning the transfer of data abroad in a move likely to bring some relief to foreign and Chinese companies in the country who trade overseas. The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) said it was considering waiving data export security assessments for activities such as international trade, academic cooperation, cross-border manufacturing and marketing that do not contain personal information or important data. It also intends to cancel the need for data export security assessments in certain circumstances, including ones involving cross-border shopping, hotel reservation or visa processing activities that require personal information to be transferred abroad, and also for employment purposes.China's tightening data laws have vexed several companies over their lack of clarity and long processes, leaving them worried they may step over the line. A European Commission official said last week that European businesses were particularly concerned. In March, Reuters reported that Chinese regulators eased some deadline pressure on multinational companies struggling to comply with new rules requiring them to seek approval to export user data as the extensive disclosures made the target date unattainable for many. The proposed rules are open to the public for comment until Oct. 15, it added. Alex Roberts, a Shanghai-based lawyer at Linklaters, said the new rules are "a great signal for foreign investment and trade into China." Click here to read... [9]

Japan to compile economic package to ease inflation pain

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida unveiled on Sept 25 the pillars of a new economic stimulus package to be compiled next month to help households ease the pain of price hikes and boost wages. Kishida will instruct his Cabinet on Sept 26 to put together the package and swiftly set up an extra budget to fund it, he said. It will include measures to protect people from cost-push inflation, back sustainable wage and income growth, promote domestic investment to spur growth, reform to overcome dwindling populations, and encourage infrastructure investment. With the new economic measures, Kishida pledged to shift Japan's economy, which has tended to focus on cost cutting, away from such practices. Kishida also warned investors trying to sell off the yen, which will boost import bills for food and energy, saying he was closely watching currency moves with a high sense of urgency. "It's important for currencies to move stably reflecting fundamentals," Kishida said in his rare remarks on the foreign exchange market. "Excessive volatility is undesirable." Details and the size of the package were yet to be announced, triggering opposition lawmakers to criticize Kishida for using the package to lure voter support ahead of a suspected snap election. Kishida's announcement Sept 25 also comes as media surveys showed his recent Cabinet reshuffle has largely failed to buoy his dwindling support ratings. Click here to read... [10]

How Tech Is Shaping the Future Of Metal Mining

As we approach 2023, the metal mining industry teeters on a precipice of unprecedented change and challenge. Such challenges range from economic instability, environmental regulations, and labour shortages to disruptive technological advancements and heightened market competition. These dynamic factors pose incredible business risks that require strategic management for success in the coming years. While it can be difficult to predict future metal prices due to a lack of clarity and an unstable macroeconomic outlook, we do know what risks metal miners will face in 2023 and possibly 2024. Geopolitics and global conflicts play a vital role in shaping the future of any industry, including metal mining. Currently, many global conflicts continue to impact international relations and the availability of raw materials, as well as metal prices and transportation. Prolonged conflicts or volatile regions can disrupt supplies, leading to higher prices or even scarcity. Political instability within a certain region may likewise affect labour force stability. Hence, understanding and planning for the geopolitical landscape is crucial for business growth. Balancing costs and productivity is a tough act in the metal mining industry. Indeed, mining operations involve steep expenses, from labour to energy usage. These need to be offset by efficient mineral extraction and processing. However, there’s an opportunity for cost savings in iron recycling. Click here to read... [11]

UK Seeks Aerospace Deals in New Trade Pact with Washington State

The UK will sign a trade pact with the Washington state aimed at facilitating aerospace deals with the US, as it seeks to bolster its economic ties in the absence of broader free-trade discussions with President Joe Biden. The memorandum of understanding, the sixth such pact with a US state, is focussed on forging closer ties between the two countries’ aviation sectors. Washington State is the birthplace of US aerospace giant Boeing Co. The framework will enable UK and US businesses to work together more seamlessly, Nusrat Ghani, the UK minister for industry, told Bloomberg News in an interview. Ghani touted the collective impact of the mini trade pacts. “The combined GDP of the six states will be over £2 trillion, the equivalent of the GDP in France,” she said. Ghani will sign the agreement alongside Washington State Governor Jay Inslee at an event in Seattle late Monday in the US. The UK has sought closer commercial ties with individual states with a broader US free-trade deal, touted as a benefit of leaving the European Union, still far off. The country has signed agreements with Indiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Oklahoma and Utah, and hopes to sign agreements with Florida, Texas and California.UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government faces pressure to expand trade and investment links in response to the US Inflation Reduction Act, a multibillion package of clean-energy subsidies and tax breaks. Click here to read... [12]

Europe Lines Up African Minerals Pacts to Ease Reliance on China

The European Union is finalizing partnerships with the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia to boost local industries as the bloc competes with China to secure critical materials for the green and digital sectors. A planned memorandum of understanding will signal to both governments and the private sector the EU’s backing for developing local value chains given that a big part of the processing of critical materials, including lithium or cobalt, currently takes place in China, people familiar with the matter said. The EU is aiming to diversify suppliers of key resources and to counter China’s massive infrastructure investments in regions including Africa. The bloc has signed similar deals with Canada, Kazakhstan, Namibia, Ukraine, Argentina and Chile, and is also exploring accords with Rwanda and Uganda. The EU plans to sign the partnerships during a forum of the Global Gateway, the EU’s €300 billion ($317 billion) investment program, in Brussels on Oct. 25-26, said the people who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. The meeting will bring together leaders from the EU, other countries and European business executives. The talks with Congo followed a visit to Kinshasa in March by French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commissioner Thierry Breton, according to Andre Wameso, the deputy chief of staff for economic matters for Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi. Click here to read... [13]

Biden’s $100 Billion Chip Bet Caught Up in Arizona Union Showdown

High-stakes labor showdowns are putting President Joe Biden’s administration in between the companies central to his economic vision and the workers he’s promised will reap the rewards of a US manufacturing renaissance. It’s not just in the United Auto Workers strike, where Biden took a side on Sept 26 by joining the picket line in Belleville, Michigan. One of the key issues in the union’s clash with the Big Three automakers is pay and workplace conditions at a slew of new electric-vehicle battery plants that will enable the White House’s climate and industrial goals. Far from suburban Detroit, a less splashy confrontation is unfolding, with similar cross-pressures: Unions in Arizona are negotiating with the world’s biggest chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., on a resolution for labour issues that have dogged TSMC’s Phoenix construction site — a flagship project of Biden’s effort to make more critical electronic components in the US. The talks pit swing-state labour unions, who’ve raised concerns about safety and training, against a company that is already struggling with the project’s speed and expense, especially compared to a similar site in Japan. TSMC is widely expected to be among the initial recipients of funding from last year’s Chips Act, which set aside semiconductor subsidies worth $100 billion. Click here to read... [14]

Intel’s Big Chip-Making Push in Germany Hits Bottleneck

The German government trumpeted Intel’s planned development as a game changer, backed by federal subsidies totalling 10 billion Euros—equivalent to $10.59 billion—that would help the economy pivot toward new industry. The outlay is part of a European Union effort unveiled this summer to double the Continent’s share of global chip production to compete with established producers in Asia. On the ground, however, this and similar projects face hurdles such as a shortage of skilled workers and an at-times Byzantine bureaucracy. High energy prices are one of the reasons Germany’s economy has stagnated since the end of last year and is expected to shrink this year. The issues raise questions about Europe’s capacity to match the Biden administration’s manufacturing incentives offered through the Inflation Reduction Act and the $53 billion Chips Act. For Germany, which derives a bigger part of its gross domestic product from manufacturing than other countries on the Continent, expanding semiconductor production is essential to catching up technologically and increasing economic resilience.To staff its factory in Magdeburg, Intel intends to send local trainees to a factory it operates in Ireland for the final year of their three-year apprenticeship program. Intel and local officials said there was no suitable local alternative in Magdeburg, a city of 240,000 people that lost a large part of its industrial base after German reunification in the 1990s. Click here to read... [15]

Israel advances water-for-energy deal with Jordan, UAE

Israel’s energy minister and the chief executive of UAE’s renewable energy firm Masdar have met to advance a water-for-energy deal with Jordan, according to the Israeli energy ministry. The aim of the meeting on Sept 26 was to advance the projects before an expected signing at the annual UN climate conference COP28 to be held in Dubai in November, the ministry said in a statement. The statement did not specify where the meeting was held, but said it came on the heels of the “successful ministerial meeting” that took place in Abu Dhabi last month in the presence of Israel’s energy minister, as well as a visit by Masdar’s representatives to Israel earlier this month. Under the proposed agreement, Jordan will supply solar energy from a UAE-funded plant to Israel and receive desalinated water from Israel in return. The Times of Israel reported that political and commercial agreements will have to be signed after the agreement is sealed. In June, Israeli Energy Minister Israel Katz discussed the projects with the US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate Affairs John Kerry. He presented a plan to build a 600MW capacity solar plant with storage in Jordan, and for Israel to export 200 million cubic metres of desalinated water per year to its neighbour, the energy ministry said at the time. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Beijing keeps focus on security, corruption and ‘worst-case scenarios’

Beijing doubled down on security, tackling corruption and preparing for “worst-case scenarios” at a Politburo meeting, signalling that national security risks remain the priority amid tensions with Washington. “It is crucial to coordinate both development and security, establish bottom-line thinking to deal with worst-case and extreme-case scenarios, take effective measures to prevent and defuse major risks, and firmly maintain the bottom line of safety,” according to a readout of Sep 27’s meeting from official news agency Xinhua. The main agenda of the meeting, chaired by President Xi Jinping, was to review feedback from 15 top-level inspection teams sent to investigate 30 state-owned enterprises, five state-owned financial institutions and the General Administration of Sport in April. Those inspections concluded last week. The Communist Party’s top anti-corruption body on Sept 26 said the teams had “sternly provided” feedback to the sectors investigated on problems that included not being cautious enough about risks. On Sept 27, the Politburo – the party’s top decision-making body – called for a further consolidation of political loyalty and for stronger control by the party. It also urged more support for state-owned enterprises and called on financial institutions to boost support for the real economy. Click here to read... [17]

China remains uncommitted to Xi Jinping’s attendance at Apec summit as tensions persist

Beijing and Washington are still working on a diplomatic compromise that could open a pathway to Chinese President Xi Jinping in attending the Apec summit in San Francisco – but first they must find their way past differences on key issues. The prospective meeting between Xi and US President Joe Biden during the Apec summit in November had been high on the agenda in talks between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US national security adviser Jake Sullivan in Malta earlier this month, sources said. The two had “candid, substantive and constructive” talks for more than 12 hours over two days that ended on September 17, according to readouts from both sides after the meeting. But a decision was yet to be made as China could not obtain certain US commitments leading up to the Apec meeting, according to sources. Beijing has deemed US actions over Taiwan and the shooting down of a suspected surveillance balloon as provocative, and has demanded the US avoid such acts before the summit, sources told the Post. Those guarantees were not possible because the US legislative branches – the House of Representatives and the Senate – are beyond the control of the Biden administration, which would have to manage increasingly hawkish domestic sentiments towards China, especially as a presidential election approaches, sources said. Click here to read... [18]

With a government shutdown just days away, Congress is moving into crisis mode

With a government shutdown five days away, Congress is moving into crisis mode as Speaker Kevin McCarthy faces an insurgency from hard-right Republicans eager to slash spending even if it means curtailing federal services for millions of Americans. There's no clear path ahead as lawmakers return with tensions high and options limited. The House is expected to vote Sept 26 evening on a package of bills to fund parts of the government, but it's not at all clear that McCarthy has the support needed to move ahead. Meanwhile, the Senate, trying to stave off a federal closure, is preparing its own bipartisan plan for a stopgap measure to buy some time and keep offices funded past Saturday's deadline as work in Congress continues. But plans to tack on additional Ukraine aid have run into trouble as a number of Republicans in both the House and Senate oppose spending more money on the war effort. Against the mounting chaos, President Joe Biden warned the Republican conservatives off their hardline tactics, saying funding the federal government is “one of the most basic fundamental responsibilities of Congress." Biden implored the House Republicans not to renege on the debt deal he struck earlier this year with McCarthy, which set the federal government funding levels and was signed into law after approval by both the House and Senate. Click here to read... [19]

S. Korea, Japan, China agree to hold summit at 'earliest convenient time'

Senior diplomats from South Korea, China and Japan agreed on Sept 26 that their countries' leaders would meet at the "earliest convenient time," Seoul's foreign ministry said after a rare meeting aimed at kickstarting trilateral exchanges. The three countries had agreed to hold a summit every year starting in 2008 to foster regional cooperation, but that initiative has been frayed by bilateral feuds and the COVID-19 pandemic. The last summit was in 2019. Seoul's foreign ministry said in a statement that specific dates remained under discussion and that the countries' foreign ministers would meet "in a couple of months". South Korea is this year's host for three-way meetings and has proposed a summit in late December, Japanese broadcaster TBS reported. Japan's foreign minister, Yoko Kamikawa, said the three countries share the need to restart high-level talks, including summits, "as soon as possible." "I believe it is very valuable to discuss the various challenges the region faces," she told a briefing in Tokyo. The latest meeting was seen partly intended to assuage Beijing's concerns over the two U.S. allies' tightening cooperation after Seoul and Tokyo agreed this year to end legal, diplomatic and trade disputes over issues dating to Japan's 1910-45 occupation of Korea. "We unanimously believe that carrying out cooperation is in the common interests of the three parties," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on Sept 26. Click here to read... [20]

Philippines dismantles Chinese floating barrier at Scarborough Shoal

The Philippines said on Sept 25 it executed a "special operation" to remove a floating barrier installed by China at a prime fishing patch in the South China Sea, a move that could stoke tension after a yearslong detente in Asia's most disputed waters. The Philippines expressed outrage on Sept 24 and shared images of the Chinese Coast Guard policing a long, ball-buoy barrier near the Scarborough Shoal, a rocky outcrop 200 kilometers from the Philippines and the site of years of intermittent flare-ups over sovereignty and fishing rights. Hours after the national security adviser had vowed to take action, the Philippine Coast Guard said it had removed the floating cordon, at the behest of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his special task force on the South China Sea. "The barrier posed a hazard to navigation, a clear violation of international law. It also hinders the conduct of fishing and livelihood activities of Filipino fisherfolk," the coast guard said in a statement, describing the shoal as "an integral part of the Philippine national territory." China's Foreign Ministry made no direct mention of the floating barrier but earlier on Sept 25 defended the actions of its coast guard as "necessary measures" after a Philippine bureau of fisheries vessel "intruded" into its waters on Sept 22. Click here to read... [21]

Nazi Veteran Lauded at Zelenskiy's Speech Embarrasses Trudeau

Canadian lawmakers are demanding that a parliamentary official resign after he invited a Ukrainian war veteran who fought in a Nazi unit to be a featured guest during President’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s speech last week. The episode is deeply embarrassing to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, though his staff say the government had no knowledge about the invitation ahead of time, and neither did the Ukrainian delegation. The guest, Yaroslav Hunka, was invited to the House of Commons by its presiding officer, Speaker Anthony Rota, who introduced the 98-year-old after Zelenskiy’s speech on Sept 22. Rota, a Liberal lawmaker, described him as a Ukrainian-Canadian Second World War veteran “who fought for Ukrainian independence against the Russians.” The entire chamber gave Hunka a standing ovation, including Trudeau and the Ukrainian president, who raised his fist. Over the weekend, Jewish organizations in Canada demanded an apology for Hunka’s invitation, pointing to his history serving with the 1st Galician division, a unit of the German military’s Waffen-SS. The timing of the incident is highly unfortunate for Zelenskiy. On the margins of the United Nations annual gathering he fell out with Poland, his ally and neighbour, and his visit to Washington was a marked contrast from last year’s warm welcome, when support for his efforts to repel Russia out of Ukraine was far more forthcoming. Click here to read... [22]

Myanmar Resistance Leader Claims Majority Control Over Territory

The acting leader of Myanmar’s government-in-exile said resistance forces are in control of about 60% of the country’s territory and poised to threaten the ruling junta in key strongholds as fighting rages across the Southeast Asian nation. Violence has intensified in Myanmar as the military led by Min Aung Hlaing, facing a crumbling economy and growing signs of dissent within his regime, struggles to keep up with a multi-front conflict from several armed ethnic groups. A shadow government allied with ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi and formed after the 2021 coup, along with other armed ethnic groups, have been ramping up ground attacks with an eye on new military operations, including near the capital city of Naypyidaw. “It has been more than two years since we started the people’s defence war. Now, cooperation between PDFs and ethnic revolutionary forces are yielding good results,” Duwa Lashi La, the acting president of the exiled National Unity Government, said in an interview Sept 28, referring to his armed wing. “We are now in a position to even threaten Naypyidaw.” While the junta still oversees key cities, an assessment by a group of Myanmar experts last year said the military retained stable control of just 17% of the country’s total land area. Local media have reported recent attacks in the capital, including on a junta airbase this month. Click here to read... [23]

French Ambassador Exits Niger after Standoff with Military Junta

France’s ambassador to Niger left the country; three days after President Emmanuel Macron said the envoy would be pulled out of the West African nation and French troops withdrawn. Ambassador Sylvain Itte left the capital, Niamey, on a plane heading to Paris via Chad, according to two French government officials who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorised to comment. The ambassador left Niger along with six colleagues at about 4 a.m. on Sept 27, Agence France-Presse reported. Tensions between Niger’s military leaders and its former colonial power have deteriorated since the junta ousted President Mohamed Bazoum in a July 26 coup and severed military ties with France. Macron initially rejected an Aug. 28 deadline for Itte to depart the country. The junta ordered the ambassador to leave for what it described as French “actions contrary to Niger’s interests.” The coup leaders on Sept 25 requested a timeline for the withdrawal of the about 1,500 French troops that are stationed in Niger. Macron earlier said the withdrawal would be completed by the end of 2023. Macron held talks with Nigerien Foreign Minister Hassoumi Massaoudou on Sept 27 in which he reiterated France’s support for Bazoum and its desire for a return to constitutional order in the country, according to a statement from the Elysee. Click here to read... [24]

Maldives' Muizzu marches to victory on anti-India drumbeat

The Maldives' opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu triumphed in Sept 30's presidential election, winning over voters with two broad campaign themes: that incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih had failed to deliver on his clean government pledges, and that his pro-India leanings had undermined the country's sovereignty. Muizzu's victory, with 54% of the vote, is widely seen as a loss for New Delhi and a win for Beijing, which now appears to have an opportunity to regain its foothold in the strategically situated Indian Ocean archipelago. But while Muizzu is known as pro-China, South Asian diplomats based in the capital say that his style may lead to a balanced diplomatic tone rather than a strident one. "Maldivians feel that [Muizzu] would be able to keep Maldives on an even keel, moving away from Solih's 'India first' policy," one senior envoy told Nikkei Asia, on condition of anonymity. Muizzu said after his victory that voters had chosen to "win back Maldives independence." Solih congratulated his rival on X, thanking the public for its "beautiful democratic example." Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also sent his congratulations, writing on X that "India remains committed to strengthening the time-tested India-Maldives bilateral relationship and enhancing our overall cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region." The election result had been foreshadowed by Muizzu's surprising performance in the first round on Sept. 9, when he led the pack of eight contestants with 46% of the vote. Click here to read... [25]

Taiwan expects to deploy two new submarines by 2027--security adviser

Taiwan hopes to deploy at least two new, domestically developed submarines by 2027, and possibly equip later models with missiles, to strengthen deterrence against the Chinese navy and protect key supply lines, the head of the program said. Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, has made the indigenous sub program a key part of an ambitious project to modernize its armed forces as Beijing stages almost daily military exercises to assert its sovereignty. President Tsai Ing-wen, who initiated the programme when she took office in 2016, is expected to launch the first of eight new submarines on Sept 28 under a plan that has drawn on expertise and technology from several countries - a breakthrough for diplomatically isolated Taiwan. Admiral Huang Shu-kuang, Tsai’s security adviser, who is leading the program, said a fleet of 10 submarines - which includes two Dutch-made submarines commissioned in the 1980s - will make it harder for the Chinese navy to project power into the Pacific. “If we can build up this combat capacity, I don’t think we will lose a war,” Huang this month told an internal briefing on the project, which was attended by Reuters. Huang said the first submarine, with a price tag of T$49.36 billion ($1.54 billion), will use a combat system by Lockheed Martin Corp and carry U.S.-made MK-48 heavyweight torpedoes. Click here to read... [26]

Ukraine Steps Up Strikes on Crimea as Offensive Grinds On

Ukraine has stepped up missile and drone attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea, destroying weapons, bases and supply lines as a four-month-old counteroffensive makes halting progress on the ground in the country’s east and south. After taking out advanced air-defense systems that had protected the peninsula, Ukraine used cruise missiles and drones to destroy ships and the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and recaptured drilling platforms used for radar activity. As a result, the Russian fleet has been further limited, cutting the Kremlin’s capabilities, according to a European official who requested anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public. The operations are part of a broader strategy of targeting Russia’s supply lines, logistics and ability to mount offensive operations, the official said. The intensified attacks underscore Ukraine’s progress in gradually degrading Russia’s military effort — and provide a reminder of the embattled nation’s broader strategic goal of retaking the Black Sea peninsula that Moscow illegally annexed in 2014. But they aren’t likely to enable Ukraine to make a decisive breakthrough in the ground war this year, said the official.“For the moment, these processes are in parallel,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv. “Once Crimea as a logistics base becomes vulnerable, the Ukrainians can work more on Russian troops on the mainland.” Click here to read... [27]

Ukraine excluded from emergency US government funding deal

The US House of Representatives and the Senate both approved a stopgap spending bill on Sept 30. The resolution keeps the government open for the next 45 days at the current spending level, and adds billions of dollars in funding for US disaster relief – but excludes new aid to Ukraine, despite President Joe Biden’s request. The so-called 'continuing resolution' was passed in a 335-91 vote in the House and sent to the Senate just a few hours before the shutdown deadline. The House then adjourned until Oct 02, meaning the lawmakers did not plan to propose an alternative if the Senate had failed to approve the legislation. The Senate approved the bill in a 88-9 vote, and passed it to President Biden, who had decided to stay in Washington over the weekend, on standby to sign it. The new plan, branded a ‘clean’ bill by the Republicans, won the support from more House Democrats than Republicans, with just one Democrat voting against the short-term funding measure. It ensures that federal operations will be at the current spending level, but includes none of the $24 billion in additional funding for Ukraine that Biden said was necessary. Click here to read... [28]

U.S. Takes Aim At Iran's Drone-Part Procurement Network

The United States has imposed sanctions on entities in Iran, Hong Kong, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates that the U.S. Treasury Department says comprise a network for the procurement of parts for Iran's drone program. The network has facilitated shipments and financial transactions in support of a critical component used in Iran's Shahed drones, which Iran has been supplying to Russia for use against Ukraine, the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said on September 27. The critical component is known as a servomotor and is used in Iran’s Shahed-series unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The OFAC said the sanctions took aim at the procurement of servomotors by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' (IRGC) aerospace organization. The OFAC said one of the servomotors procured by the network was recovered in the remnants of a Russian-operated Shahed-136 that was recently shot down in Ukraine. "Iranian-made UAVs continue to be a key tool for Russia in its attacks in Ukraine, including those that terrorize Ukrainian citizens and attack its critical infrastructure," Undersecretary of the Treasury Brian Nelson said in a news release. Two of the five entities designated for sanctions are Iran-based Pishgam Electronic Safeh Company (PESC) and Hongkong Himark Electron Model Limited. The other three are based in Turkey and the U.A.E., the OFAC said. Click here to read... [29]

Egypt to hold presidential vote in December as economic crisis worsens

Egypt is set to hold a presidential vote in December, the elections body announced, and incumbent President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is widely expected to win despite the dire economic situation facing the country. The National Elections Authority said on Sept 25 that the vote will be held December 10-12. A handful of politicians have already announced their bids to run for the country’s highest post, but none poses a serious challenge to el-Sisi, who has been in power since 2014 – a year after overthrowing the country’s first democratically elected President Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood has since been declared a “terrorist” organisation.Opposition politician Ahmed al-Tantawi, an ex-lawmaker, has said he will run, and accused security agencies of arresting some of his supporters. Other candidates who announced their bids include Farid Zahran, head of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party; Abdel-Sanad Yamama, head of the Wafd Party; and Gameela Ismail, head of the liberal Constitution Party (Dostour Party). El-Sisi’s presidency has been marked by a crackdown on dissent across the political spectrum. Activists say tens of thousands have been jailed since 2013, often without fair trials, and that the crackdown has continued despite the pardoning of some high-profile prisoners and the launch of a national political dialogue. Moreover, the economic situation in the country remains dire, as Egypt’s currency has lost half its value since March 2022. Click here to read... [30]

US and Kenya sign defence deal ahead of possible Haiti mission

The United States and Kenya have signed a defence agreement that will see the East African nation get resources and support for security deployments as it has volunteered to lead an international mission to violence-plagued Haiti. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Kenya’s Defence Minister Aden Duale signed the accord on Sept 25 at a meeting in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, guiding the countries’ defence relations for the next five years.“Signing the framework for defence cooperation between our two countries today reinforces the importance of our strategic partnership with Kenya,” Austin said following the meeting, according to a readout by the Pentagon. The US defence chief underscored Kenya’s role in the fight against al-Shabab, an armed group affiliated with al-Qaeda that is active in East Africa. He also thanked the Kenyan government for volunteering to take the leadership of a proposed, multinational force to Haiti, which has been struggling to respond to months of escalating gang violence. Gangs control most of the Haitian capital, Port-au-Prince, and Haitians face a barrage of attacks, including kidnappings for ransom and sexual violence. Thousands of people have been displaced from their homes. In October of last year, Haiti’s de facto leader, Prime Minister Ariel Henry, called on the international community to help set up a “specialised armed force” to quell the violence. Click here to read... [31]

Health

WHO recommends second malaria vaccine for children, rollout early next year

The World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended a second malaria vaccine, a decision that could offer countries a cheaper and a more readily available option than the world’s first shot against the parasitic disease. The R21/Matrix-M, developed by Britain’s Oxford University, can be used to curb the life-threatening disease spread to humans by some mosquitoes, the WHO said on Oct 02. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the UN health agency was approving the new malaria vaccine based on the advice of two expert groups, recommending its use in children at risk of the disease. “As a malaria researcher, I used to dream of the day we would have a safe and effective vaccine against malaria. Now we have two,” Tedros said. The R21/Matrix-M vaccine is manufactured by the Serum Institute of India and has already been approved for use in Burkina Faso, Ghana and Nigeria. The vaccine will be rolled out in those African countries in early 2024 and will be available in mid-2024 in other countries, Tedros said, adding that doses would cost from $2 to $4. “WHO is now reviewing the vaccine for prequalification, which is WHO stamp of approval, and will enable GAVI [a global vaccine alliance] and UNICEF to buy the vaccine from manufacturers,” Tedros said. Click here to read... [32]

South Africa Urges Greater Biosecurity on Avian Flu Outbreak

The South African government urged farmers to intensify biosecurity measures after an avian influenza outbreak resulted in the deaths of more than 2.6 million birds. Six of the nation’s nine provinces have been affected by the 50 HPAI H7 and 10 HPAI H5 subtypes of the virus, the Department of Agriculture said in a statement on Sept 25. Poultry producers should immediately report suspicion of the disease to state veterinarians, it said. Avian flu usually affects wild birds, but can sometimes infect commercial or domestic poultry. While it rarely causes disease in humans, according to South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases, there’s no treatment for the birds and the government requires farmers to cull poultry to control its spread. Vaccines aren’t yet available in South Africa, but government talks to finalize access are at an advanced stage and registration of the medicines will be fast-tracked. “The criteria under which vaccination will be permitted is almost in its final development, and only farms with good biosecurity and approved to vaccinate by the department will be given permission to vaccinate,” the department said. Click here to read... [33]