Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (24-30 July)

Economic

G20 Meeting Sets The Stage For Heated COP28

The outcome of the recent G20 meeting held in India has left some participants disappointed, while others had anticipated a fiery discussion on hydrocarbons and energy policies. Amid growing concerns about the future of the planet, the debate surrounding the future of hydrocarbons has intensified, with the Global South aligning its objections with powerful oil and gas-producing nations. The G20 Ministerial energy meeting, hosted by India in Goa, included influential countries such as China, the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Germany, France, the UK, and the EU. The upcoming COP28 summit in Dubai, led by Sultan Al Jaber, who also heads the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), is expected to become a battleground between environmentalists, NGOs, and Western governments pushing for aggressive climate change action and the Global South advocating for the continued inclusion of hydrocarbon producers and energy companies. The contentious debates are already underway, as evident from the G20's inability to agree on tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030. The lack of consensus on globally phasing out fossil fuels is attributed to the opposition of major hydrocarbon producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia, triggering harsh reactions from climate scientists and activists concerned about the escalating impact of climate change, as witnessed through increased extreme weather events like heatwaves in Europe, China, and the USA. Click here to read... [2]

COP28 calls on governments to ensure food systems and agriculture are central to climate action efforts

The COP28 UAE Presidency today launched its Food Systems and Agriculture Agenda. This forms part of its continued work to define the COP28 Action Agenda leading into this year's climate conference. The COP28 Presidency, represented by Mariam bint Mohammed Almheiri, Minister of Climate Change and the Environment and COP28 Food Systems Lead, called on governments to demonstrate leadership by signing the first-ever Leaders Declaration on Food Systems, Agriculture and Climate Action during the Food Systems Summit in Rome. The Declaration invites national governments to align their national food systems and agriculture strategies, with their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs). It will also celebrate countries who are leading the way by putting food systems and agriculture at the heart of the climate process. In addition, the COP28 Presidency is calling on a diverse group of stakeholders in the food and agriculture sector to accelerate existing initiatives across food systems, agriculture, and climate action. The COP28 Presidency will bring together businesses, farmer and producer organisations, and other non-state actors to drive progress across production, consumption, food loss and waste. Click here to read... [3]

Le Maire says France wants better China access, not decoupling

France wants better access to the Chinese market and a more "balanced" trade relationship, not a "decoupling" from the world's second-biggest economy, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on July 30 after meeting top Chinese officials. "We don't want to face some legislative hurdles or some other barriers to get access to the Chinese markets," Le Maire told a press conference in Beijing a day after what he called "constructive" trade talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng. "This of course was at the core of our discussions," he said. "We want to get a better access and a more balanced access to the Chinese market." At July 29's meeting, He said China hoped France could "stabilize the tone" of EU-China relations, while Beijing was willing to deepen cooperation with Paris in some areas. European officials have repeatedly said they wanted not to decouple from China but to "de-risk" in the face of what the Group of Seven calls China's "economic coercion". "De-risking does not mean that China is a risk," Le Maire said. "De-risking means that we want to be more independent and that we don't want to face any risk in our supply chains if there would be a new crisis, like the COVID one with the total breakdown of some of the value chains." Click here to read... [4]

Sri Lanka, Maldives see Japan wade into Indian Ocean contest

Visits to Sri Lanka and the Maldives by Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi over the weekend signal Tokyo's commitment to greater engagement in the Indian Ocean, where its strategic partner India is up against China in a contest for influence. Hayashi's stopover in Colombo on July 28 through July 29, followed by a July 30 trip to Male, is part of a six-nation tour of developing countries in South Asia and Africa. His journey, which started in India and ends with visits to South Africa, Uganda and Ethiopia, underscores Japan's new diplomatic push in the so-called Global South. Sri Lankan diplomatic sources view the first Japanese ministerial visit since 2019 as an extension of Tokyo's efforts to lead negotiations on restructuring the bankrupt nation's bilateral debt after it defaulted last year. Together with France and India, Japan revealed plans in April for a common platform to coordinate the restructuring. This turned up the heat on China -- Sri Lanka's largest bilateral creditor -- which has balked at coming to the table. The Harvard-educated Japanese politician is "expected to engage in detailed discussions on the ongoing debt restructuring process, which is co-chaired by the Japanese government," sources at the Sri Lankan Embassy in Tokyo told Nikkei Asia. "Resuming Japanese funding [for development and infrastructure projects] will also be explored." Click here to read... [5]

China weighs easing tech transfer rules for office gear

The Chinese government is considering easing proposed rules that require foreign office equipment makers operating in the country to transfer key product technology to China, Nikkei has learned. Japanese, U.S. and other foreign companies control the majority of the office equipment market in China and these companies were strongly opposed to the rules, with some threatening to pull out of the country entirely. China has faced opposition in World Trade Organization discussions and at bilateral meetings with other countries. Such discussions have possibly affected its decision in this respect. Some also believe that China has hinted at giving concessions to foreign office equipment makers because they are seen as being indispensable to boosting the sluggish economy. In April 2022, Chinese authorities began studying the possibility of revamping their national standards, which define product technology and rules for procurement of components for each industry. An early draft of the standards included a new requirement that key components, such as semiconductors and laser-related items, be designed, developed and produced in China. According to sources close to the matter, the working group of the National Information Security Standardization Technical Committee (TC260), which is responsible for the renewal of national standards, deleted the proposed rules in its draft for public comment, which was presented to companies in May. Click here to read... [6]

Intel’s new Chinese chip innovation centre is a collaboration with a Shenzhen district, deepening ties amid US scrutiny

US chip giant Intel is increasing its business ties in China with a new innovation hub in Shenzhen meant to help domestic start-ups, even as Washington puts increasing pressure on semiconductor firms to reduce trade with the country. The Santa Clara-based chip giant and the Nanshan district government in Shenzhen, a technology hub in southern China, launched the Intel Greater Bay Area Innovation Centre on July 29, according to a post published to the centre’s official WeChat account. The centre will focus on artificial intelligence (AI), chip applications and edge computing, among other technologies, the statement said. The district government aims to use the partnership to grow into a global “innovation highland” through a combination of industrial policy, Intel’s product and technology ecosystem, and innovation from local partners, according to the statement. “We will further leverage Intel’s technology and ecosystem strengths … facilitate the integration and development of emerging sectors in the Greater Bay Area and across the country … and help develop the digital economy,” Intel China chairwoman Wang Rui said at the centre’s unveiling event. Intel is one of multiple US tech giants trying to maintain business in the world’s second-largest economy amid the souring of US-China ties that has seen Washington ramp up chip export restrictions. Click here to read... [7]

Population falls with drops in every prefecture for the first time in Japan

Japan had 800,000 fewer citizens at the start of this year, compared with a year earlier, but more worrying was that falls were posted by every one of its 47 prefectures for the first time. Okinawa, the only prefecture with a growing population, also saw a drop. As of Jan. 1, the population as ranked solely by Japanese nationals totaled 122,423,038, down 800,523 from the previous year, according to the internal affairs ministry. The figures are based on the government’s basic resident register. The drop was the fastest since the current survey method began in 1973, the data showed. It exceeded the previous year’s record by more than 180,000. Population figures have steadily declined for 14 consecutive years since 2009, when the number of Japanese people was at its peak, and the rate of decrease is accelerating. The number of births in 2022 hit a record low of 771,801, down 40,235 from a year earlier. It was the first time for the figure to fall below 800,000 since 1973. The number of deaths in 2022 climbed to a record high of 1,565,125, up 123,386 from the previous year. The rise is believed to be due to the high ratio of elderly people in Japan, coupled with the COVID-19 pandemic. " target="_blank"> Click here to read... [8]

Foreigners offset Korea's steep population decline

More foreigners are settling down in Korea as the number of Korean nationals declines, helping offset a steep fall in the country's total population that otherwise would have dropped below the 50 million mark last year, a study showed on July 30. Conducted by Statistics Korea, the study showed the number of foreign nationals who are staying here for three months or longer reached 1.75 million in 2022, up 6.2 percent or 102,379 from a year earlier. The year-on-year increase comes after the number of foreign nationals dipped by 83,275 year-on-year in 2020 and then by another 45,676 year-on-year in 2021, due to international travel restrictions driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of Korean nationals went down 0.3 percent or 148,000 year-on-year to 49.94 million in 2022, falling for the second consecutive year. The country's entire population with Koreans and foreign nationals combined dropped to 51.69 million last year, down 0.1 percent or 46,000 from 2021. "The data suggests the country's population has a growing chance of staying below the 50 million mark if there is no influx of foreign nationals," Nam Jae-ryang, a senior researcher at Korea Labor Institute (KLI), said, referring to shrinking birth rates and an a rapidly aging society. Click here to read... [9]

India and Japan look to collaborate in building semiconductors and resilient supply chains

India and Japan explored collaborating in critical technologies, including semiconductors and resilient supply chains, as part of plans to reach a target of $35.9 billion Japanese investment in the country by 2027, officials said on July 28. Foreign Ministers of India and Japan, S. Jaishankar and Yoshimasa Hayashi, met in New Delhi on July 27 and also discussed ways to deepen defense equipment and technology cooperation. Hayashi is on a two-day visit to the Indian capital. Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted the global supply of parts and raw materials needed to complete a variety of products – from cars to computer chips. Hayashi and Jaishankar also emphasized the crucial role of a strong partnership between India and Japan in ensuring an open and prosperous Indo-Pacific region that is inclusive and rules-based, a statement by India’s External Affairs Ministry said. They discussed cooperation under multilateral and plurilateral frameworks, including the Quad grouping that also includes the United States and Australia, the statement said. The grouping aims at countering the growing challenge posed by an aggressive China in the region. Jaishankar and Hayashi expressed satisfaction at the strengthening of defense and security cooperation between the two countries, including regular exercises and talks between all three services, the statement said. Click here to read... [10]

Subsidy Wars Heat Up With US Allies Forced to Pay Up or Lose Out

Locked in a fight with China for global dominance, the Biden administration is pouring subsidies into local manufacturing via landmark measures including last year’s Inflation Reduction Act. The goal is to entrench American leadership in industries of the future like clean energy and semiconductors, and create well-paid jobs at home. The effect has been to kickstart a global contest that’s straining alliances, threatening budgets and channeling unprecedented amounts of public cash into private companies. The latest example of how it’s warping economies came on July 24 with the news that Germany was readying subsidies for high-end chip plants totaling some €20 billion ($22 billion). A few days earlier, the UK government — previously adamant that it wouldn't get into a subsidy race — was celebrating when Tata Group picked Britain ahead of rivals as the site of a new EV battery plant, after securing a promise of financial help estimated at more than £500 million ($645 million). Precisely how much cash is being deployed to fuel investment is hard to calculate, because the support takes many forms including tax breaks, cheap loans and grants. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that governments worldwide have pumped more than $500 billion in direct subsidies for manufacturing low-carbon equipment. “The debate is about how to intervene, not whether intervention is necessary,” says economist Réka Juhász, co-founder of the Industrial Policy Group, a research center that attempts to keep track of all these government moves. Critics of the US shift should acknowledge the failure of market-driven approaches to tackling climate change and supply-chain security, she says. “The market won’t magically deliver this in and of itself.” Click here to read... [11]

Elon Musk’s Latest Mission: Rev Up the Electricity Industry

Elon Musk wants more power—literally. The man behind the race to replace gasoline-fueled cars with electric ones is worried about having enough juice. In recent days he has reiterated those concerns, predicting U.S. consumption of electricity, driven in part by battery-powered vehicles, will triple by around 2045. That followed his saying earlier this month that he anticipates an electricity shortage in two years that could stunt the energy-hungry development of artificial intelligence. “You really need to bring the time scale of projects in sooner and have a high sense of urgency,” Musk told energy executives July 25 at a conference held by PG&E, one of the nation’s largest utilities. “My biggest concern is that there’s insufficient urgency.” Musk’s participation with PG&E Chief Executive Patti Poppe at the power company’s conference marked the third major energy event the billionaire has appeared at in the past 12 months. He has played the part of Cassandra, trying to spark more industry attention on the infrastructure required for his EV and AI futures as he advocates for a fully electric economy. “I can’t emphasize enough: we need more electricity,” Musk said last month at an energy conference in Austin. “However much electricity you think you need, more than that is needed.” Click here to read... [12]

Outcry Against AI Companies Grows Over Who Controls Internet’s Content

A collective cry is breaking out as authors, artists and internet publishers realize that the generative-AI phenomenon sweeping the globe is built partly on the back of their work. The emerging awareness has set up a war between the forces behind the inputs and the outputs of these new artificial-intelligence tools, over whether and how content originators should be compensated. The disputes threaten to throw sand into the gears of the AI boom just as it seems poised to revolutionize the global economy. Artificial-intelligence companies including OpenAI, its backer Microsoft; red down pointing triangle, and Google built generative-AI systems such as ChatGPT by scraping oceans of information from the internet and feeding it into training algorithms that teach the systems to imitate human speech. The companies generally say their data use without compensation is permitted, but they have left the door open to discussing the issue with content creators. Earlier in July, thousands of authors including Margaret Atwood and James Patterson signed an open letter demanding that top AI companies obtain permission and pay writers for the use of their works to train generative-AI models. Comedian Sarah Silverman and other authors also filed lawsuits against OpenAI and Facebook-parent Meta Platforms for allegedly training their AI models on illegal copies of their books that were captured and left on the internet. Click here to read... [13]

Iran’s 2022 Oil Revenues Exceed 2016 Levels

Iran state revenues from the sale of crude oil last year reached $42.6 billion, which was higher than what Iran made from oil sales in the first year of the nuclear deal. The figure was reported by the Tasnim news agency, which also cited Kpler data showing that Iran exported crude at a rate of 1.4 million barrels daily at the end of 2022. It was this increase in daily export rates combined with higher prices that made for higher revenues. The 2022 oil export figure is a significant improvement on export numbers for 2021: in that year, Iran’s revenues were just $25.5 billion, according to OPEC data, cited by Iranian media. The nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, led to the lifting of Western sanctions imposed on Tehran for its nuclear power program. When Donald Trump became U.S. president, however, he reimposed U.S. sanctions, targeting specifically the country’s oil industry. Despite these sanctions—and the continued failure of the two sides to negotiate a new deal—Iran has been exporting quite a lot of oil, most of it to China. Despite threats from Washington that there will be consequences, these have been slow in coming, allowing China to stock up on discount oil and Iran to find foreign markets for its crude. Meanwhile, exports have continued to rise this year as well. In May, the daily average hit 1.5 million bpd. Click here to read... [14]

Putin proposes alternative cargo route to Africa

The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) could provide Russian goods with a shorter route to Africa than the Suez Canal, President Vladimir Putin said on July 27. Addressing a plenary session of the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, Putin explained that Moscow is “actively engaged in reorienting transport and cargo flows towards the states of the Global South, including, of course, Africa.” The INSTC, touted as an alternative to the Suez Canal, is a planned 7,200km multi-mode transit system that will connect ship, rail, and road routes for moving cargo between Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, India, and Central Asia. “The International North-South Transport Corridor that we are developing is aimed at providing Russian goods with access to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, from where they will be able to reach the African continent via the shortest sea route. Naturally, this corridor can also be used in the opposite direction – to supply African goods to the Russian market,” Putin stated. Russia is seeking to both ensure interconnectivity throughout the route and launch regular freight shipping lines, according to Putin. The volume of goods shipped via the INSTC is expected to almost triple over the next seven years, and the Russian leader suggested establishing a logistics hub for the corridor on the African coast. Click here to read... [15]

Russia reveals rapid growth in military production

The Russian military-industrial complex could use over 16,000 more specialized workers, but has nonetheless managed to ramp up production of certain weapons, Trade and Industry Minister Denis Manturov announced on July 24. “Since the beginning of this year, for many types of weapons and special equipment, much more has already been produced than for the whole of last year,” Manturov told a conference in Nizhny Novgorod. “Speaking about weapons, we are now reaching a level at which deliveries in just one month exceed the total order of last year,” he added. All defense enterprises are operating at unprecedented levels, Manturov claimed. The expanded capabilities have resulted in a labor shortage, however. "In total, taking into account the deployed capacities, we need more than 16,000 specialists only for organizations that ensure the supply of the most popular types of weapons and special equipment,” ranging from line workers to technical specialists and engineers, Manturov, who is also a deputy prime minister, explained while asking the heads of Russian regions to address the personnel shortage. “We need an integrated approach here,” he said, urging the governors to involve employment services and human resource specialists, as well as to offer incentives to university graduates to work in the defense industry. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

US Security Talks Planned; Drones Strike Moscow

Ukraine will open talks with the US next week on a bilateral security guarantee from Washington, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said. “We are starting the relevant negotiations with the United States next week,” Yermak told a congress of local and regional authorities in Ukraine’s Ivano-Frankivsk, according to a statement July 30 on the presidential website. “Security guarantees for Ukraine will be concrete and long-term commitments that will ensure Ukraine’s ability to win now and deter Russian aggression in the future.” At least 10 countries have joined a declaration to provide bilateral guarantees to Ukraine until it can enter NATO, in the wake of the alliance’s summit in Vilnius, Yermak said. “We are already working on bilateral agreements with each of these partners.” Yermak also said that Saudi Arabia will host a meeting of national security and political advisers “soon” to discuss support for Ukraine’s peace demands, following on from a meeting of Kyiv’s key backers and developing nations in Denmark in June. The goal is to reach a global summit of heads of state, which could take place by the end of the year, he said, according to the presidential website. Overnight, drones damaged two office tower buildings in Moscow and triggered the temporary closure of one of the city’s airports. Russia blamed Ukraine, which hasn’t commented on the strikes. Click here to read... [17]

Putin promises grains, debt write-off as Russia seeks Africa allies

Russian President Vladimir Putin says his country and the African leaders attending a summit in St Petersburg have agreed to promote a multipolar world order and fight “neocolonialism” as he offered debt write-offs and grain to woo allies. “Russia’s attention to Africa is steadily growing,” Putin said on July 28 at the end of the two-day summit. The meeting was seen as a test of Moscow’s support in Africa, where Russia retains backing despite international isolation sparked by its war in Ukraine. On July 27, the Russian leader promised free grain to six African nations and assured them that Moscow was trying to avert a global food crisis nearly a week after withdrawing from an agreement that allowed Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain producers, to export its farm products across the Black Sea. The Russian leader also mentioned the “joint determination to counter neocolonialism, the practice of applying illegitimate sanctions and attempts to undermine traditional moral values”. Representatives of 49 countries, including 17 heads of state, attended the summit in the Russian city. Participants signed a joint declaration that called for “the establishment of a more just, balanced and stable multipolar world order, firmly opposing all types of international confrontation in the African continent”. Click here to read... [18]

US intelligence report says China likely to be supplying tech for Russian military

China is helping Russia evade Western sanctions and likely providing Moscow with military and dual-use technology for use in Ukraine, according to an unclassified US intelligence report released on July 27. The assessment by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) was published by the US House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. China has repeatedly denied sending military equipment to Russia since Moscow’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. “The [People’s Republic of China] is providing some dual-use technology that Moscow’s military uses to continue the war in Ukraine, despite an international cordon of sanctions and export controls,” the ODNI report said. “The customs records show PRC state-owned defence companies shipping navigation equipment, jamming technology, and fighter jet parts to sanctioned Russian government-owned defence companies,” the report said. It also said China has become “an even more critical partner” of Russia after Moscow invaded Ukraine last year. ODNI said China and Russia had increased the share of bilateral trade settled in China’s yuan currency, and both countries’ financial institutions are expanding their use of domestic payment systems. China has increased its importation of Russia energy exports, including oil and gas rerouted from Europe, the report said. Click here to read... [19]

China’s Xi Jinping boosts belt and road in talks with leaders of Indonesia, Guyana and Georgia

Chinese President Xi Jinping has sought to boost the Belt and Road Initiative through engagements with multiple foreign leaders on the sidelines of the World University Games in Chengdu. China’s global infrastructure strategy stood out as a main talking point in his meetings with Guyanese President Irfaan Ali and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili on July 28 and his Indonesian counterpart Joko Widodo on July 27. Beijing is celebrating the 10th anniversary of the initiative and is expected to host the third edition of the Belt and Road Forum later this year – the first since the Covid-19 pandemic. Xi told Garibashvili that China was ready to push forward with building the belt and road with Georgia. He added that Beijing welcomed more exports from the country and encouraged more Chinese companies to invest there. Xi said the two countries were set to announce that bilateral relations would be upgraded to a “strategic partnership” during Garibashvili’s trip to China, according to state news agency Xinhua. China and Georgia ratified a free-trade agreement in 2017 – Beijing’s first with a former Soviet state. Georgia applied for EU membership last year and has launched a bid to join Nato. In the meeting with his Guyanese counterpart, Xi said Beijing was willing to further align the belt and road strategy and the South American nation’s low-carbon development strategy. Click here to read... [20]

Chinese anti-corruption investigators target top PLA Rocket Force generals, sources say

A new anti-corruption drive in China has led to the downfall of several past and present senior commanders in the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force, a key element of the country’s nuclear arsenal, according to sources familiar with the situation. Two sources told the South China Morning Post that the Central Military Commission (CMC)’s anti-graft body, the Commission for Discipline Inspection, along with its audit office have been investigating the force’s current commander Li Yuchao, as well as Zhang Zhenzhong and Liu Guangbin, his past and present deputies. There have been no public announcements about any investigation into the trio, but they are believed to have been taken away by investigators. Li, the most senior general to be caught up in the latest investigation, is only the third commander of the rocket force, which was created during a major overhaul of the military in 2015. Li, who was promoted to the party’s 205-member Central Committee in October, has been one of the force’s public faces. He took a prominent role in the 2009 National Day parade to mark the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Republic, and a 2015 parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of victory in the second world war. Click here to read... [21]

China replaces foreign minister Qin after mysterious absence

China named veteran diplomat Wang Yi its new foreign minister on July 25, removing former rising star Qin Gang after a mysterious one-month absence from duties barely half a year into the job. Qin, 57, a former aide to President Xi Jinping and envoy to the United States, took over the ministry in December but has not been seen in public since June 25 when he met visiting diplomats in Beijing. The ministry has said he was off work for health reasons without giving details, sparking speculation and drawing attention to the secrecy often surrounding China’s Communist leadership and decision making. Qin’s successor Wang, 69, was also his predecessor, holding the post from 2013-2022 as ties frayed with rival superpower the United States to a point Beijing described as an all-time low. He has filled in for Qin during his absence and this week represented China at a national security advisers’ meeting of BRICS countries in Johannesburg. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Qin on June 18, on the first visit by America’s top diplomat to China in five years. The U.S. State Department said then they held “candid, substantive, and constructive” talks and Blinken invited Qin to Washington to continue discussions. Click here to read... [22]

U.S. announces $345m military aid package for Taiwan

The U.S. on July 28 announced $345 million in military aid for Taiwan, in what is the Biden administration's first major package drawing on America's own stockpiles to help Taiwan counter China. The White House's announcement said the package would include defense, education and training for the Taiwanese. Washington will send man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, intelligence and surveillance capabilities, firearms and missiles, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters ahead of the announcement. U.S. lawmakers have been pressuring the Pentagon and White House to speed weapons to Taiwan. The goals are to help it counter China and to deter China from considering attacking, by providing Taipei enough weaponry that it would make the price of invasion too high. While Chinese diplomats protested the move, Taiwan's trade office in Washington said the U.S. decision to pull arms and other materiel from its stores provided "an important tool to support Taiwan's self-defense." In a statement, it pledged to work with the United States to maintain "peace, stability and the status quo across the Taiwan Strait." Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense also expressed its appreciation in a statement July 29 morning that thanked "the U.S. for its firm commitment to Taiwan's security." Click here to read... [23]

US Military Footprint in Australia Expands to Counter China

The US and Australia reached an agreement to expand the US military footprint on the southern continent, as both countries bolster defense ties to respond to an increasingly assertive China. The changes include more frequent and longer visits of US submarines to Australia, a regular rotation of US Army watercraft and collaborating on guided missile production, the nations’ defense ministers announced on July 29 in Brisbane. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said the US-Australia relationship “has never been in better shape than it is right now” as he reeled off a list of efforts to enhance cooperation. Foreign Minister Penny Wong called the US Australia’s “closest strategic partner.” The two countries also announced plans to further cooperate on space issues as well as step up integration of Japan into military planning. “There’s been a strategic convergence between Canberra and Washington over the range of challenges that China poses,” said Charles Edel, Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The relationship “has quickly evolved into one of America’s most important strategic partnerships.” In a sign of the growing ties, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Marles are scheduled to view the largest-ever iteration of the biennial “Talisman Sabre” exercises off the northern coast of Australia on July 30. Click here to read... [24]

China's Cambodia base nears completion, challenging U.S. naval power

China has made significant progress building a naval base in Cambodia and is close to completing a pier that could berth an aircraft carrier, according to satellite imagery. Images taken by BlackSky, a U.S. commercial imagery company that has been monitoring the construction at Ream Naval Base, show a nearly complete pier that is strikingly similar in size and design to a pier that the Chinese military uses at its only overseas base in Djibouti. The Pentagon believes China is building a facility in Cambodia to boost its ability to project naval power. China and Cambodia have denied that the People's Liberation Army will have access to the base. China has a bigger navy than the U.S. but lacks the extensive international network of bases and logistics facilities needed to operate as a blue-water navy that can sail around the world. Access to a base on the Gulf of Thailand would also provide a strategic advantage to China. "There has been debate inside the [U.S.] government about what exactly China would do with the base and why it would be better than a base in the South China Sea or Hainan Island," said one former U.S. intelligence official. China has over the past decade built a number of military bases on reefs and reclaimed land in the South China Sea. But a base in another country could complicate any U.S. military response in the case of a conflict. Click here to read... [25]

Taliban visits Indonesia in attempt to gain global recognition

A midlevel Taliban delegation visited Indonesia this month "to improve relations" between Afghanistan and the world's most populous Muslim nation, a Taliban source told Nikkei Asia. The visit, said analysts, was an attempt by the Taliban to gain support for international recognition and court foreign investment in Afghanistan to shore up its ailing economy, which is among the poorest in the world. "This is a middle-level delegation visiting Indonesia and Malaysia, and it is trying to improve relations between Afghanistan and the two Islamic countries," said the source, adding that the visit occurred more than a week ago. Indonesian Foreign Ministry spokesman Teuku Faizasyah confirmed that the Taliban were in Jakarta for "internal activities with their mission." They did not meet with the foreign ministry, Faizasyah told Nikkei Asia. The Foreign Ministry of Malaysia did not respond to requests for comment. The Taliban believe there are Islamic groups in Muslim countries -- including Indonesia and Malaysia -- who could be persuaded to hear its side of the story and "perhaps be convinced" to lobby their respective government in favor of it, said Faran Jeffery, deputy director and head of the South Asia terrorism desk at the U.K.-based think tank Islamic Theology of Counter Terrorism. Click here to read... [26]

Suu Kyi's reported move to house arrest signals shift in Myanmar

Myanmar's military government has reportedly moved former leader Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to house arrest, in the face of criticism at home and overseas ahead of the expected extension of a national state of emergency on July 31. Suu Kyi, whose government was removed by the military in February 2021, was transferred to housing used by government officials from a prison in the capital city of Naypyitaw, the BBC Burmese-language service reported July 25. Military spokesperson Zaw Min Tun told Nikkei he did not know whether this information was accurate. Suu Kyi was sentenced to a total of 33 years in prison for corruption and other charges. She had been held in a special section of the prison since June 2022. The Associated Press also reported on July 25 plans to move Suu Kyi to house arrest, citing a security official, but did not say whether the transfer had already occurred. The reports come days before Myanmar's state of emergency, which serves as the basis for the military's control over government, was set to expire. The state of emergency was initially supposed to last a year. But the military government has extended it by six months three times, and many expect it to do so again on security grounds. Click here to read... [27]

Thai Parliament says it will try to pick a prime minister next week after 2 unsuccessful attempts

Thailand’s Parliament will try to pick a new prime minister next week following two unsuccessful attempts, it said July 27, as political uncertainty grows more than two months after the country’s election. Parliament said the vote will take place Aug. 4. The decision came despite the House speaker saying two days ago that the vote would be delayed pending clarity from the Constitutional Court on the constitutionality of Parliament’s vote last week to block Pita Limjaroenrat, whose progressive Move Forward Party captured the most seats in the election, to be nominated for prime minister a second time. The government ombudsman petitioned the court to rule on the issue after receiving complaints from private citizens and lawmakers from Pita’s party that Parliament’s vote was unconstitutional. Pita lost a first vote in Parliament on July 13. Thai media say the court will meet next Aug 03, a day before the new scheduled vote, to determine whether to accept the case. If accepted, it could order the vote to be postponed until it issues a ruling. Adding to the political uncertainty, the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, one of the most divisive figures in Thai politics, announced July 26 that he plans to return on Aug. 10 after living in self-imposed exile to escape a prison term in criminal cases he has decried as politically motivated. Click here to read... [28]

North Korean leader Kim shares center stage with Russian, Chinese delegates at military parade

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shared center stage with senior delegates from Russia and China as he rolled out his most powerful, nuclear-capable missiles in a military parade in the capital, Pyongyang, marking a major war anniversary with a show of defiance against the United States. State media said July 28 Kim attended July 27 evening’s parade with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chinese ruling party official Li Hongzhong from a balcony looking over a brightly illuminated Kim Il Sung Square, named after Kim’s state-founding grandfather. The streets and stands were packed with tens of thousands of mobilized spectators, who roared in approval as waves of goose-stepping soldiers, tanks and huge, intercontinental ballistic missiles wheeled out on launcher trucks filled up the main road. Photos showed Kim Jong Un smiling and talking with Shoigu and Li, who respectively stood to his right and left at the balcony’s center spot, and Kim and Shoigu raising their hands to salute the parading troops. The North’s official Korean Central News Agency said the parade also featured ceremonial flights of newly developed surveillance and attack drones, which were first unveiled by state media this week as they reported on an arms exhibition attended by Kim and Shoigu. Click here to read... [29]

Japan raises alarm over China's military, its Russia ties and Taiwan tensions in new defense paper

Japan stepped up its alarm over China's assertiveness in the region, its growing military ties to Russia and its claims on Taiwan in an annual defense paper released July 28 that is the first under Tokyo's new security strategy calling for a major military buildup. The current security environment is the worst since the end of World War II, according to the 2023 edition of Japan’s defense white paper approved by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Cabinet. It is the first under the National Security Strategy the government adopted in December, stating the need to bolster strike capability with long-range missiles like Tomahawks, a controversial plan seen as a break from Japan's self-defense-only postwar principle. China, Russia and North Korea contribute to “the most severe and complex security environment since the end of World War II,” according to the 510-page report. It says China’s external stance and military activities have become a “serious concern for Japan and the international community and present an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge." Russia and China have also stepped up strategic ties, the report said, noting repeated joint bomber flights and joint navigations of Chinese and Russian warships are “clearly intended for demonstration of force against Japan and of grave concern” to security of Japan and the region. Click here to read... [30]

Niger Coup Upends U.S. Security Plans in West Africa, Handing Russia an Opportunity

This week’s military coup in Niger threatens to disrupt the entire U.S. strategy for fighting Islamist militants as they expand across western Africa, and potentially hand Russia a strategic advantage as it tries to widen its own influence in the region. The centerpiece of the U.S. approach to regional security has been dispatching American commandos to train elite local forces to take on al Qaeda and Islamic State, whose violent ideology has spread rapidly from the Middle East and South Asia into the Sahel, the semiarid band south of the Sahara, over the past six years. Now, with the dust still settling after military officers ousted Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26, the U.S. finds itself constrained by American law that prohibits it from providing most security aid to military regimes. And with the Nigerien Armed Forces saying July 27 they backed the revolt, the worry in Washington is that the coup leaders risk ceding more ground to the militants after splitting with the U.S. and could turn instead to Russian mercenaries to help them fight back. Bazoum, who was elected to office in 2021, had been a bedrock ally in the U.S. campaign. The vast West African country hosts American drones and American commandos, who have trained Nigerien special forces and advised them during combat missions against Boko Haram and local affiliates of al Qaeda and Islamic State. Click here to read... [31]

China, UAE set for joint air force training in military first, as Beijing forges closer Middle East ties

The air forces of China and the United Arab Emirates will train together for the first time next month, according to the Chinese defence ministry. The “Falcon Shield 2023” exercises will take place in China’s northwestern Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, the ministry said in a brief statement on July 31. China has focused on forging closer economic and military ties with countries in the Middle East, such as the UAE, as part of its post-pandemic diplomatic outreach. Although the United States still maintains a much larger footprint in the region, China’s anti-piracy operations, building of commercial ports and growing arms sales are proof of its intention to play a bigger role in regional geopolitics beyond energy trade. At the first China-Arab States summit in December – where Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech – the 21 members of the Arab League and Beijing agreed to more cooperation between their militaries, including on international peacekeeping, maritime security, and combined exercises and training. “This is the first combined air force training between China and the UAE,” July 31’s defence ministry statement said. “It aims to deepen pragmatic exchange and cooperation between the two militaries and to promote mutual understanding and trust.” It did not mention the size of the UAE contingent, the duration or scope of the training. Click here to read... [32]

Health

Cities designate facilities where residents can beat the heat in Japan

With Japan gripped by a heat wave, an increasing number of local governments are setting up air-conditioned havens for exhausted residents. The facilities use a mix of public and private premises. In some cases, the cooling shelters comprise just a set of chairs inside a shop. But as Japan broils under the summer sun, officials believe the centers are needed. "It means a lot to make residents learn the importance of heatstroke prevention by setting up (cooling shelters)," said a Tottori city official. From next summer, the central government will upgrade its alerts for heatstroke. When the mercury soars, residents who need to cool down will be urged to visit a cooling shelter. One such facility is located at the Tachibana outlet of the Ringo Yakkyoku pharmacy chain in Sumida Ward, Tokyo. On the afternoon of July 12, Michiko Baba, 74, dropped in for about five minutes to cool off. Carrying a shopping bag, she went straight to the waiting room equipped with chairs for about seven people, where she drank barley tea from a paper cup. "I really appreciate it because there are few cafes nearby where I can take a break," she said, then departed with a smile. The drugstore is one of 31 pharmacies in the ward that were designated as cooling shelters after the ward office signed up a local pharmacists’ association in June. Click here to read... [33]