Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (03-09 July)

Economic

Yellen: Washington might 'respond to unintended consequences' for China

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on July 09 said she agreed Washington will listen to Chinese complaints about security-related curbs on U.S. technology exports and might “respond to unintended consequences” as she ended a visit to Beijing aimed at reviving strained relations. Yellen defended “targeted measures" on trade that China’s leaders complain are aimed at hurting its fledgling tech industries. She said the Biden administration wants to “avoid unnecessary repercussions" but gave no indication of possible changes. Relations between the two biggest economies are at their lowest level in decades due to disputes about technology, security and other irritants. A key Chinese complaint is limits on access to processor chips and other U.S. technology on security grounds that threaten to hamper the ruling Communist Party's development of smartphones, artificial intelligence and other industries. “We will open up channels so that they can express concerns about our actions, and we can explain and possibly in some situations respond to unintended consequences of our actions,” Yellen said at a news conference. Yellen talked with China’s No. 2 leader, Premier Li Qiang, and other officials during 10 hours of meetings. She had a five-hour session July 08 with her Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng. Treasury officials said in advance there were no plans for her to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping.Click here to read… [2]

US under pressure from businesses, EU to avoid ‘unnecessary conflict’ with China, but ‘much could still go wrong’

Washington is under pressure from American businesses to adjust its approach to China as the US seeks to resume economic engagement with Beijing, although uncertainties still remain and may even worsen ahead of a possible leaders’ summit later this year, according to sources and analysts. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is due to travel to Beijing on July 06 to meet her new Chinese counterparts in charge of economy and trade during a long-awaited four-day visit. And after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrapped up a closely watched two-day visit that included a meeting with President Xi Jinping last month, expectations have also built that Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and climate envoy John Kerry will also visit China. Engagement on economy and trade used to prevent bilateral relations from derailing, but in recent years, a technology rivalry has intensified, and Beijing has also spearheaded indigenous innovation to break US-led containment efforts, which it views as an existential crisis for China’s economic growth. Some US companies, though, have been lobbying Washington to de-escalate tensions, according to sources who refused to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the issue. “European companies are doing the same with their respective governments,” said one of the sources.Click here to read… [3]

China limits exports of chip-making metals in trade spat with U.S.

China said July 03 that it will impose new export restrictions on two materials crucial to making semiconductors and other electronic components, in an escalating technology trade standoff with the U.S. Exporters will be unable to ship gallium and germanium, as well as related chemical compounds, out of China without a permit starting Aug. 1, according to the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs. Compound semiconductors that use gallium are essential for electronic devices as they help reduce power loss. Gallium nitride is used for lasers and other applications, and the material is expected to become more widely used in power semiconductors for electric vehicles. Japan's Nidec and Renesas Electronics are considering using gallium nitride substrates for an EV component they are developing jointly. China produces 98% of the world's gallium, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Beijing is curbing gallium supplies based on the country's export control law, implemented in late 2020. It lets authorities cite national security reasons to prohibit shipment of controlled items to certain overseas companies. Chinese authorities have used the law to impose restrictions on exports of encryption technology and semiconductors used to prevent data leaks. The gallium restrictions follow export curbs imposed against China by the U.S. and other countries.Click here to read… [4]

South Korea, Taiwan see limited impact of China curbs on chip-making materials

South Korean and Taiwanese ministers said on July 04 the short-term impact of China’s export controls targeting gallium and germanium used in the chip industry would be limited, with a Seoul official pointing to stockpiles and alternative supplies. South Korea is a leading chipmaker and the industry ministry would continue to monitor the situation, since it could not rule out the possibility that China might extend the scope of its export controls to other materials, said Young J. Joo, deputy minister for industrial policy. “We are monitoring the situation in key countries such as the U.S. and Japan and will make utmost efforts to prepare measures to deal with even unlikely situations,” the deputy minister said. China did not control an absolute amount of germanium in the world as it did with rare earths, the official said. The ministry will continue to support the development of alternative materials and import channels, he added. The Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources Corporation (KOMIR) had about 40 days stockpile of gallium that local industry could use, a government source with knowledge of the matter said, adding there were other sources of germanium. Taiwan, home to the world’s largest contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC), expects the short-term impact of the controls to not be big, Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua told reporters in Taipei.Click here to read… [5]

Many South Korean companies see dropping revenues in Chinese market

Many South Korean companies have seen a significant drop in revenues in the Chinese market since 2016, market research firm CEO Score said July 05. The total combined revenues of these companies' Chinese operations last year amounted to 111.42 trillion won ($85.7 billion), down by 13.1 percent compared with 2016. If revenues from the battery and semiconductor sectors are excluded, the decline was a staggering 40 percent, CEO Score said in a statement. The research firm conducted the analysis on the annual revenues of 113 South Korean companies' subsidiaries in China, which were among the top 500 South Korean companies. The latest findings showed that the automobile and electronics companies, which were strong in China in the past, are losing pace in the market, though their sales of batteries and semiconductors increased. To exemplify the trend, the study showed that in the auto sector, Hyundai Motor's subsidiary in China - Beijing Hyundai Motor - saw the steepest drop, with its revenue shrinking from 20.13 trillion won in 2016 to 4.9 trillion won last year, a plunge of 75.7 percent. Another automaker, Kia witnessed a sales drop of 80.8 percent to 1.88 trillion won during the same period.Click here to read… [6]

China’s Premier Li eyes ‘combination of punches’ during critical economic juncture

While not revealing any specific policy details, Beijing has pledged to timely release a new batch of targeted and concerted measures to stabilise the national economy, with market concerns having jumped over the slowing of China’s post-Covid recovery and as investor sentiment worsens. Premier Li Qiang made the comments at a symposium with experts on July 06 afternoon to assess the current economic condition. The State Council also initiated a mechanism to ensure regular dialogues with private and foreign investors. “We should focus on implementing a ‘combination of punches’ in policymaking, centred around stable growth, employment and risk prevention,” Li was quoted by the official Xinhua news agency as saying. He also called for the prompt implementation of targeted, comprehensive and concerted policy measures, as China is currently at a “critical juncture” of economic recovery and industrial upgrading, with a complex intertwining of structural issues and cyclical contradictions. “It is important to establish and improve regular communication and exchange mechanisms between the government and various types of enterprises, including private and foreign-invested enterprises,” Li reportedly said. The market has been expecting strong supportive policies to speed up sluggish economic growth that has been suppressed by strong internal and external headwinds, including weak confidence in the private sector, a curtailed property market, record-high youth unemployment and weak export demand, amid a weakening of the yuan against the US dollar.Click here to read… [7]

As yuan nears 15-year low, China's hands tied on monetary stimulus

The yuan is hovering within striking distance of a 15-year-plus low against the dollar as U.S. interest rates settle firmly above their Chinese equivalents, limiting Beijing's options for reenergizing a sluggish economy. The Chinese currency ended the trading day in Shanghai on July 05 at 7.244 against the dollar. The yuan had softened to 7.273 June 30-- its lowest point since last November -- two days after the People's Bank of China's monetary policy committee held a quarterly meeting at which it said it would "fend off the risk of drastic ups and downs in exchange rates." If the yuan falls below last November's nadir of 7.328, that would be its weakest level since December 2007. The recent selling has been driven mainly by what the PBOC referred to as the influence of monetary tightening in advanced economies. Repeated hikes by the Federal Reserve pushed U.S. long-term interest rates above China's last year for the first time in about 12 years. The projections released by the Fed in June suggest two more increases in 2023, which would lift long-term rates to nearly 4%. China's benchmark 10-year government bond yield, meanwhile, is sitting in the 2.7% range, close to an all-time low. This apparent new normal of higher yields in the U.S. than in China has dented the latter's ability to attract capital.Click here to read… [8]

China central bankers lose status in party as Xi loyalist gains power

The status of the leaders of the People's Bank of China is declining within the Communist Party, with neither current Gov. Yi Gang nor Pan Gongsheng, the newly appointed party chief at the central bank, included among the 376 high-ranking members or alternates of the party's Central Committee. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, who is close to President Xi Jinping, has become the country's de facto finance chief. The Communist Party has an organization set up to lead the financial sector, and the recent personnel appointments make it clear that the party will be steering things directly. The party requires organizations with three or more party members to each set up a Communist Party committee. Aiming to spread party leadership to all corners of the country, Communist Party committees influence important decision-making, including personnel affairs. The PBOC's party secretary -- the head of its party committee -- is an important post on a par with governor. Pan now holds this job. Recent leaders of the central bank had held higher positions in the party. Zhou Xiaochuan, who was governor from 2002 to 2018, was a Central Committee member until 2012, after which he was granted similar standing to a vice premier. He also served as the PBOC's party secretary. Yi, who took over as governor from Zhou in 2018, was an alternate rather than a full member of the Central Committee.Click here to read… [9]

Pakistan's IMF deal gives economy quick boost as next storm brews

Pakistan's last-gasp deal with the International Monetary Fund has put a jolt into the country's stock market, pushed up the rupee and provided some much-needed padding for foreign currency reserves. Experts, however, warn that structural weaknesses, political uncertainty and the terms of the IMF deal itself mean that more difficult days lie ahead. Pakistan late last week finalized a $3 billion standby arrangement with the IMF at the staff level, just as its stalled existing loan program with the fund was due to expire. Now the nation is set to receive the first $1.1 billion tranche this month after approval by the IMF's board. That will help to pull Pakistan -- hit by a combination of global inflationary pressures, devastating floods, a heavy debt load and questionable governance -- back from the brink of default. Already, the country has seen immediate positive effects. Pakistan's KSE-100 stock index rose by a record 2,400 points July 03. The struggling Pakistani rupee was trading at 275 per dollar in interbank transactions, versus 310 in May. At the same time, the IMF deal requires Pakistan to take inflationary steps -- putting more strain on the population and potentially fuelling further political unrest. Based on the IMF's requirements, Islamabad has finalized plans to increase gas prices by 45% to 50% and the base tariff on electricity by 3.50 to 4 rupees per unit, according to local media.Click here to read… [10]

Singapore pulling all stops to avert a housing collapse

Singapore’s housing market is going through some big changes. It has a dual market structure consisting of a public and a private market. The public housing market is divided into a primary and a secondary (resale) market. The Housing & Development Board is responsible for building and selling public housing flats at concessionary prices in the primary market to Singaporeans. The primary public housing market is regulated and only open to Singaporean families, subject to a monthly household income cap of 14,000 Singapore dollars (US$10,400). After meeting the minimum occupation period of five years, owners can sell their flats in the secondary public housing market to Singaporean citizens and permanent residents who do not own private houses. The private housing market is a laissez-faire market that supplies non-landed houses, such as apartments and condominiums, as well as landed houses, such as terrace, semi-detached and detached houses. Foreigners are prohibited from owning public housing flats. While they can buy and sell non-landed apartments and condominiums, they can only buy landed houses on Sentosa Island. Despite Covid-19-related disruptions to supply chains and economic activities, the benchmark private residential property price index experienced 12 consecutive quarters of growth of 25% total after exiting the “circuit breaker” in June 2020. The resale public housing price grew by 28% over the same period.Click here to read… [11]

Earth hit an unofficial record high temperature this week--and stayed there

Sweltering heat is blanketing much of the planet, and one unofficial analysis says the past seven days have been the hottest week on record, the latest grim milestone in a series of climate-change-driven extremes. On July 06, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration distanced itself from the designation, compiled by the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer, which uses satellite data and computer simulations to measure the world’s condition. That metric showed that Earth’s average temperature on Wednesday remained at an unofficial record high, 62.9 degrees Fahrenheit (17.18 degrees Celsius), set the day before. And for the seven-day period ending July 05, the daily average temperature was .08 degrees Fahrenheit (.04 degrees Celsius) higher than any week in 44 years of record-keeping, according to Climate Reanalyzer data. Though the figures are unofficial, many scientists agree they indicate climate change is reaching uncharted territory. And the White House said the data show the need for legislative action. “The alarming extreme weather events impacting millions of Americans underscore the urgency of President Biden’s climate agenda and the absurdity of continued efforts by Republican lawmakers to block and repeal it,” spokesman Abdullah Hasan said.NOAA, whose figures are considered the gold standard in climate data, said in a statement July 06 that it cannot validate the unofficial numbers.Click here to read… [12]

How Do U.S. Debt And Gold Prices Relate?

Gold has long been considered a store of value and a hedge against economic uncertainty. Over the past five decades, its price has been closely intertwined with concerns surrounding the growing U.S. public debt. The U.S. national debt is the amount of money the federal government has borrowed to cover the outstanding balance of expenses incurred over time. Every fiscal year, if spending exceeds revenue, the federal government borrows money by selling marketable securities such as Treasury bonds, bills, notes, floating rate notes, and Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) to cover the deficit. The American public debt has risen annually since 1970, except in 2000, when it decreased by 2% due to factors like robust growth and a budget surplus. Over the last few decades, the national debt has grown from around $370 million in 1970 to an all-time high of $31.4 trillion in 2023, recently sparking the debate in Congress to increase the debt ceiling to avoid a potential default. The number is even higher if considering federal unfunded liabilities. Those are future financial obligations that the government has committed to but lacks sufficient funds to fully cover, such as Social Security and Medicare. Taking those into consideration, the current present value of the fiscal imbalance is $244.8 trillion, almost 10 times the current U.S. GDP.Click here to read… [13]

Russia and Saudi Arabia show unity with oil output cuts – minister

The latest move to extend oil production cuts by the world’s biggest exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, is evidence of strong teamwork between Riyadh and Moscow, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on July 05. Saudi Arabia said on July 03 it would extend its voluntary crude output cut of one million barrels per day for another month to include August, while Russia simultaneously announced a 500,000 barrel-per-day decline in exports next month. The cuts will amount to 1.5% of global supply. “It is quite telling seeing us on July 03 coming out with not only our [oil production cut] extension... but also with validation from the Russian side,” he told a meeting of oil industry CEOs with ministers at the OPEC+ International Seminar in Vienna. Prince Abdulaziz said there was deep cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia as part of the OPEC+ alliance, and pledged to do “whatever necessary” to support the oil market. “In the last move this week, yes, we are all continuing with our voluntary cut, but again, part of what we have had done with our colleagues from Russia was also to mitigate the cynical side of spectators about what was going on with Saudi Arabia and Russia,” he said. The Saudi energy minister hailed Russia’s oil production cut, describing it as meaningful as it affects exports, and noted that the move had been voluntary, not imposed.Click here to read… [14]

Europe And China Face Off Over U.S. LNG Supply Deals

Europe and China's pursuit of long-term supply deals with U.S. LNG developers and exporters offers certainty in long-term supply and flexibility for the buyers. Despite cost inflation concerns, the U.S. is set to approve a record volume of LNG export capacity this year. Long-term LNG contracting has seen a surge of deals, with China and other Asian buyers also securing supply from the U.S. Concerned about energy security, Europe and China are in an intensifying competition to sign long-term supply deals with U.S. LNG developers and exporters. The race for LNG supply indexed to Henry Hub prices and with flexibility clauses to resell the cargoes if not needed gives buyers certainty about long-term supply and the possibility to send cargoes elsewhere if the market is not as tight as expected. For sellers, the U.S. LNG developers and exporters, more long-term purchase deals with Europe and Asia mean more chances for projects to contract future volumes from planned export facilities and underpin financing and final investment decisions for a greater number of U.S. LNG export terminals. “More volumes are good for the market, and with the new deals we will see more LNG export projects being developed,” Sindre Knutsson, partner of gas and LNG research at Rystad Energy, told the Financial Times. Despite concerns about cost inflation, developers of LNG projects in the United States are set to approve a record-high volume of export capacity this year, driven by rising global LNG demand and increased long-term contracting from customers willing to boost energy security.Click here to read… [15]

Global investment climate ‘extremely gloomy’ – UN

The international investment climate was “extremely gloomy” last year as “cascading” geopolitical and economic shocks undermined investor confidence around the world, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Global foreign direct investment (FDI) plunged by 12% in 2022 to $1.3 trillion after a strong rebound in 2021, the UNCTAD said in its World Investment Report 2023. The organization attributed the decrease to overlapping global crises, such as the conflict in Ukraine, high food and energy prices, and soaring public debt. “Rising inflation, fears of a recession and turbulence in financial markets put many investment plans on hold at the beginning of the year,” UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan said. Global economic challenges had a particularly negative impact on international project finance and cross-border mergers and acquisitions, according to the report. The slump in investment was felt mostly in developed economies, where FDI fell by 37% to $378 billion due to greater financial constraints, higher interest rates, and uncertainty in capital markets. Multinational enterprises in developed economies were primarily responsible for the decline in FDI flows as industries around the world faced supply disruptions.Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

Keeping up pressure, China sends warships and fighter jets near Taiwan during Yellen's Beijing visit

China’s People’s Liberation Army sent 13 aircraft and 6 vessels into airspace and waters around Taiwan over the past 24 hours as of early July 08, overlapping with United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit to Beijing aimed at mending strained relations. Taiwan's Defense Ministry said it is monitoring the situation from the air and sea, and land-based missile systems were prepared to respond. It said four Chinese aircraft — two SU-30 fighters, one BZK-005 reconnaissance plane and one Y-8 anti-submarine warfare plane — crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait that serves as a de-facto border between the sides, and had entered Taiwan's south-western air defense identification zone. Shortly before Yellen’s arrival, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the headquarters of the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater on July 06. Its area of operations directly faces the island across the Taiwan Strait. Addressing commanders at the Jiangsu province headquarters, Xi “stressed efforts to … break new ground for theater command development and war preparedness,” state media reported.He called for “enhancing the planning of war and combat … and stepping up training under real combat conditions to raise the forces’ capabilities to fight and win,” the reports said.Click here to read… [17]

China simulates ‘Z-day’ total sea war with the US

China has just simulated a total war scenario at sea with the United States, an exercise that highlighted the People’s Liberation Army-Navy’s formidable challenges in a potential high-intensity conflict with an advanced, determined and highly-capable adversary. South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that researchers from the PLA’s Unit 91404 recently added a “total war” scenario when testing and evaluating the performance of new weapons. Unit 91404 is responsible for the sea tests of some of China’s latest and most potent naval weapons. The SCMP report notes that the researchers published their “Z-day” total war scenario in the peer-reviewed Chinese Journal of Ship Research last month. The report mentions that the researchers assumed that the Chinese military was under all-out attack by a hypothetical “blue alliance” with Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. In the simulation, the PLA-N had nearly 50 destroyers, with each attacked with 11 missiles and more than three torpedoes coming from multiple directions. The report also mentions the blue alliance generated jamming noises 30 times stronger than the signal PLA-N warships use for communication and that the detection range of Chinese radar was reduced to 60% below normal. Those conditions destroyed almost a third of the Chinese destroyer’s air defense capabilities, with only half of their surface-to-air (SAM) missiles hitting their targets. Chinese naval experts who independently assessed the simulation results were quoted as saying the figures are “realistic.”Click here to read… [18]

China’s foreign relations law signals new red lines, but doesn’t say what crosses them

With the declaration of sweeping legislation to govern external relations, China appears determined to ramp up a legal struggle to counter sanctions and what it views as other foreign provocations, while seeking to extend the reach of domestic law beyond its borders, according to observers. The unprecedented Law on Foreign Relations, which went into effect on July 1, also signalled China’s growing resolve to close the gap with the United States on the legal battlefield. According to Chinese officials and state media, the new law closes “loopholes in the rule of law in foreign related affairs” and provides a legal basis for Beijing’s external “struggle” against “containment, interference, sanctions and sabotage”, as well as America’s “long-arm” jurisdiction. Along with the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law enacted in 2021, the new rules are part of Beijing’s response to US-led sanctions that have blacklisted more than 1,300 Chinese companies and officials over alleged wrongdoings – which Beijing has repeatedly denied – including human rights abuses and suspicious ties with Russia. But the concentration of the Communist Party’s power over diplomacy, the ambiguity of the law, and a lack of clarity about the definition of national security may create fresh barriers and uncertainty for overseas investors and business operations in China, pundits say.Click here to read… [19]

Putin claims unity, Xi slams decoupling at India-hosted SCO talks

Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 04 told fellow leaders in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that his country stands united, while thanking them for their support during the attempted mutiny by the Wagner paramilitary group. The meeting, hosted online by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, marked Putin's first appearance in a multilateral forum since armed mercenaries threatened to march on Moscow in late June, raising questions about his grip on power. Russia's Sputnik state news service reported that Putin expressed appreciation to the SCO leaders, which also included Chinese President Xi Jinping. Putin called for deeper security cooperation among the bloc, the report said, while insisting that Moscow would stand up against "illegitimate sanctions." Modi, for his part, told the eight-nation grouping that the world faces a critical juncture amid global tensions, stressing that ensuring sufficient supplies of food, fuel and fertilizer is a major "challenge" for all countries. Xi called on SCO members to reject protectionism and decoupling -- an apparent reference to efforts by the U.S. and its allies to reduce trade and investment with China in sensitive areas. "We should make the pie of cooperation bigger, so that the fruits of development can benefit people of all countries," he said from Beijing.Click here to read… [20]

NATO powers in ‘frantic’ race to conceive Ukraine deal – Politico

Washington is reportedly rushing to complete an agreement with its most powerful NATO partners – the UK, Germany, and France – on a set of security guarantees for Ukraine so the deal can be presented to the full bloc when the Western military alliance gathers for a summit this week in Vilnius. The group’s power brokers have been holding “frantic, last-minute” negotiations to finalize their agreement on a security declaration for Kiev, Politico reported on July 09, citing four unidentified officials familiar with the talks. The declaration would create an “umbrella” for all countries willing to provide military aid to Ukraine, even though details of the security commitments may vary from nation to nation. The US, UK, France, and Germany have been discussing the issue with Ukrainian leaders for weeks and have “reached out” to other allies within NATO, the EU, and the G7, Politico said. The four governments aim to unveil their framework agreement at the summit in hopes that other members will join with them in the security pledges. The two-day event is scheduled to begin on July 11. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has pressed for NATO to accelerate his country’s bid to join the alliance, but multiple members of the bloc have said Kiev can’t be admitted at least until its conflict with Russia ends.Click here to read… [21]

NATO to defer decision on Tokyo liaison office

NATO is poised to defer its decision on establishing a liaison office in Tokyo until autumn or later, Nikkei has learned. The North Atlantic military alliance initially planned to enshrine the establishment of the Tokyo office in documents to be adopted at NATO's two-day summit beginning July 11 in Lithuania. But France has opposed the idea, caring for relations with China, and the unanimous agreement of all 31 members needed for the decision appears unlikely. The bloc will work to finalize the decision by the year-end. The proposal for the Tokyo office was spearheaded by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. The U.S.-led alliance wants to have a liaison site in Japan -- NATO's partner in Asia -- and deepen security cooperation with democratic countries in the Asia-Pacific region, such as South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. Some NATO leaders including Stoltenberg and U.S. President Joe Biden regard countering China -- which is seen as strengthening its military by deepening ties with Russia -- as crucial for their security. In newer areas of security such as cyberwarfare and disinformation, China could threaten the U.S. and Europe. Such concerns are pushing NATO to enhance cooperation with U.S. allies Japan and South Korea. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will attend the NATO summit this week.Click here to read… [22]

South Korea signs off on Japan's Fukushima water release plan

The South Korean government said July 07 that Japan's plan to release wastewater from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant meets international standards and that the water would not have any significant effects on ecosystems off the coasts of South Korea. The signoff from Seoul comes as Japan prepares to begin releasing the water later this summer, despite opposition from political parties and environmental groups in South Korea, China and other Asian countries. Earlier this week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) made public the results of a study that concludes Japan's plan is in line with international standards. South Korea on July 07 said it respects the IAEA's conclusions. Speaking in a daily briefing, Bang Moon-kyu, minister of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, said South Korea had assessed Japan's plan for treating the water and determined that the level of radioactive elements, such as tritium, will be "less than 1/100,000th compared with the level in the surrounding waters gauged in 2021, which is scientifically negligible." Bang added that South Korea will monitor the release and communicate with Japanese authorities if concerns arise. Also appearing at the briefing was YooGuk-hee, head of the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission, who headed a delegation of South Korean scientists that travelled to Fukushima in May.Click here to read… [23]

Thailand chooses a House speaker as the Move Forward Party tries to secure the Prime Minister job

Thailand's new government took a step closer to forming with the speaker of the House of Representative chosen July 04 in what has been an arduous task before the next prime minister is named.The House vote for prime minister is the next major move, expected next week. The leader of the surprise election winner Move Forward Party, 42-year-old businessman Pita Limjaroenrat, has faced strong opposition from conservative lawmakers in his bid to take the job. A successful candidate must have the backing of a combined majority of the elected lawmakers in the Lower House and the military-appointed Senate, which represents the country’s traditional ruling class. Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, the Prachachat Party's veteran leader who is better known as Wan Noor, was the sole nomination for the speakership and was automatically chosen with no house vote required. “I will perform my duty with political neutrality,” Wan Noor gave a speech after the nomination. “I will perform my duty with transparency, honesty, and I will fully comply with the constitution and the rules of the parliament.” The House Speaker position was highly sought after as it could influence the passage of legislation. Move Forward said it needed the post to ensure their progressive policies, often blocked by conservative lawmakers, will pass through. But many members of the populist Phue Thai Party insisted that their party should take the crucial post as it was the second winner of the election.Click here to read… [24]

Myanmar violence and sea disputes to dominate ASEAN talks joined by U.S., Russian and Chinese envoys

Myanmar’s prolonged civil strife, tensions in the disputed South China Sea and concern over arms buildups in the region are expected to dominate the agenda when Southeast Asia’s top diplomats gather for talks this week in Indonesia. Russia’s year-old invasion of Ukraine and the U.S.-China rivalry will also be under the spotlight as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang participate as dialogue partners of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations foreign ministers in the Indonesian capital of Jakarta. North Korea has yet to say whether its foreign minister, Choe Son Hui, will attend the ASEAN Regional Forum, an annual regional security meeting. It’s also unclear who among the key figures in the world’s most intractable conflicts will meet on the sidelines of the group’s ministerial meetings. The top diplomats of ASEAN, which includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, will meet July 11-12 before their Asian and Western counterparts join them in discussions on July 14-15. Founded in 1967, the often-unwieldy collective of democracies, autocracies and monarchies has been held together for decades by bedrock principles of non-interference in each other’s domestic affairs and consensus-based decision-making. But that approach has also prevented the 10-nation bloc from dealing swiftly with crises that spill across borders.Click here to read… [25]

Chinese navy’s 5-day Nigeria visit marks rare West Africa foray

A naval fleet of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) led by the warship Nanning arrived on July 02 in Nigeria for a rare visit by the Chinese military to Africa’s Atlantic coast, where Beijing has long made efforts to grow its influence. The Chinese ambassador to Nigeria hailed the five-day visit as a milestone in ties, and the Nigerian navy expressed willingness to work with China to tackle maritime security threats and maintain stability in the Gulf of Guinea, the Chinese embassy said in a statement on July 03. The destroyer and an accompanying frigate, Sanya, along with a supply ship, Weishanhu, arrived off the port of Lagos, with the Nanning berthing for a port of call through July 06, the Nigerian navy said in a statement. Oil-rich West Africa is part of the Gulf of Guinea and is an important global exporter of crude. The Gulf of Guinea, described by the International Maritime Bureau as one of the world’s most dangerous and important shipping routes, covers 11,000sq km (4,247sq miles) and stretches from Angola to Senegal. Since 2021, piracy cases have been on the decline due to cooperation among countries in the region and deployments of foreign naval ships, according to the United Nations Security Council. Two of those countries, Angola and Nigeria, are among China’s top oil suppliers. Major Chinese oil explorer CNOOC Ltd also engages in deep-sea production off the coast of Nigeria.Click here to read… [26]

Fighting rages in Sudan as army tries to cut RSF supply lines

Fierce battles have broken out across Omdurman, a city across the Nile from Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, as the army tries to cut off supply routes used by its paramilitary rivals to bring in reinforcements. The army launched air strikes and fired heavy artillery on July 03, and there were ground battles in several parts of Omdurman, witnesses said.The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said it had shot down a fighter jet, and residents posted footage that appeared to show pilots ejecting from a plane. There was no immediate comment from the army. The conflict, which erupted between the army and RSF on April 15, has brought daily fighting to the capital, triggered ethnically motivated killings in the western region of Darfur and threatened to drag Sudan into a protracted civil war. The RSF quickly took control of swathes of Khartoum and has brought in extra fighters from Darfur and Kordofan as the conflict has deepened. It has transferred its reinforcements across bridges from Omdurman to Khartoum and Khartoum North, the three cities that sit at the confluence of the Blue Nile and White Nile and make up the wider capital area. Residents said July 04’s fighting in Omdurman was the heaviest for weeks and the army was fending off an RSF attack against a police base as it tried to gain ground.Click here to read… [27]

Analysis: What’s next for Mali after MINUSMA withdrawal?

The United Nations Security Council has voted to end its decade-long peacekeeping mission in Mali after a request from its military government to withdraw the troops. “The government of Mali calls for the withdrawal without delay of MINUSMA,” Malian Foreign Minister AbdoulayeDiop had said in June, stressing that Bamako “is willing to cooperate with the United Nations on this issue”. June 30’s unanimous decision by the 15-member council to adopt a French-drafted resolution not to renew the mandate once it ended on June 30 has been welcomed by Bamako. MINUSMA, or the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission, “has certainly not achieved its fundamental goal of supporting the efforts of the government in securing the country”, Issa Konfourou, Mali’s ambassador to the UN, said after the vote. “Nevertheless, the people and the government of Mali will like to applaud its contribution in other areas, in particular in the area of humanitarian and social assistance,” he added. Although their mandate is over, the UN forces will be allowed to withdraw from Mali through December 31. Until then, the peacekeepers are allowed with the permission of the government to respond to the “imminent threat of violence to civilians” and to help in the delivery of humanitarian aid. “The government of Mali will be vigilant in ensuring compliance with this engagement,” Konfourou said.Click here to read… [28]

Turkey and Egypt appoint ambassadors to restore diplomatic ties

Turkey and Egypt have appointed ambassadors to restore their relations at the highest diplomatic level. In a joint statement released by the Turkish foreign ministry on July 04, the two governments said Turkey nominated Salih Mutlu Sen as its ambassador to Cairo and Egypt appointed Amr Elhamamy as its envoy to Ankara.“This step aims at the renormalisation of relations between the two countries and reflects the mutual will to improve bilateral relations in the interests of the Turkish and Egyptian peoples,” the statement said. Relations between Cairo and Ankara were severed in 2013 after then-military commander and current Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi led a coup to remove President Mohamed Morsi, a former Muslim Brotherhood leader, a political Islamist group active in multiple countries. Morsi, the country’s first democratically elected president, had the support of Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his conservative Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which was close to the Muslim Brotherhood. Mensur Akgun, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Kultur University, said ties between two key regional players have been exceedingly poor since the 2013 coup in particular because of Ankara’s unbending stance against the government of el-Sisi, who became president in 2014.Click here to read… [29]

Israel Shells Southern Lebanon Amid Fears of Multifront Escalation

Israel shelled a village in southern Lebanon on July 06 after explosions were heard in a disputed border area, raising fears of a multifront escalation between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. Tensions are high after Israel conducted a deadly two-day military operation in the occupied West Bank earlier this week that killed 12 Palestinians and one Israeli soldier. The incursion into Jenin refugee camp, which involved drone strikes and heavy construction vehicles, marked a more aggressive Israeli approach in the West Bank since an uptick in violence last year. By confiscating weapons and arresting terrorism suspects in the operation, the Israeli military said it aimed to make it easier to operate in Jenin going forward. Analysts say security forces will now need to be on alert for attacks elsewhere inside of Israel or coming from beyond its borders by Iran-backed militant groups like Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The chances of escalation are higher than before, but it is hard to predict when that may happen, said Mairav Zonszein, senior analyst for Israel-Palestine at the International Crisis Group. “The multifront stuff that you’re seeing is bound to continue and Israel is limited in what it can do,” she said. “Israel doesn’t really have an effective strategy for dealing with a lot of these threats.”Click here to read… [30]

White House backs transfer of controversial cluster bombs to Ukraine

US President Joe Biden has greenlighted the supply of cluster munitions to Ukraine as part of the Pentagon’s 42nd arms package for Kiev’s forces. The White House said that Biden made the decision despite the risk of harm to civilians. The president approved the transfer based on “unanimous” advice from his national security team, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters on July 07. US officials “recognize that cluster munitions create a risk of civilian harm from unexploded ordnance. This is why we deferred the decision for as long as we could,” Sullivan said, before arguing that the supply of cluster bombs is not “that much of an addition of civilian harm,” as Russia has allegedly used them in Ukraine already. Cluster munitions are banned in more than 120 countries because when they detonate, they release many small ‘bomblets’ over a wide area, with these unexploded elements posing severe risks to civilians for years after fighting ends. The US, Ukraine, and Russia are not parties to the ban. The US, however, has prohibited exports of the armaments with a ‘dud’ rate of more than 1%, but this restriction can be lifted by presidential waiver. The cluster bombs sent to Ukraine will have a failure rate of up to 2.35%, Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Colin Kahl told reporters on July 07.Click here to read… [31]

Health

Virologists suggest source of avian flu outbreak

A group of Polish scientists have claimed they may have identified the cause behind an avian flu outbreak in cats that has been puzzling pet-owners in the country for several weeks. The viral disease, which is rarely observed in felines, has already resulted in the death of at least 16 pets. Taking to Twitter on July 03 evening, virologist Krzysztof Pyrc published a statement on the findings of research he conducted with his colleagues. “An assessment has shown that food is one of the likely routes of transmission of the pathogen,” he revealed. Pyrc added that he and his colleagues had asked the owners of the affected cats to send samples of meat they had fed to their pets. “The analysis showed that one of the five samples contained the virus,” the researcher said. He added that several other factors had led him to believe that raw meat could be the source of the outbreak. Pyrc cited the fact that the virus had emerged in both indoor and outdoor cats in different regions of the country, with no sign of cat-to-cat transmission. Pyrc, however, emphasized that his team had no conclusive evidence to back up his theory and that the meat may have been “contaminated by the owners, with the virus developing in the cat’s body.”Click here to read… [32]

Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi has full FDA approval

U.S. officials granted full approval to a closely watched Alzheimer’s drug on July 06, clearing the way for Medicare and other insurance plans to begin covering the treatment for people with the brain-robbing disease. The Food and Drug Administration endorsed the IV drug, Leqembi, for patients with mild dementia and other symptoms caused by early Alzheimer's disease. It’s the first medicine that’s been convincingly shown to modestly slow the cognitive decline caused by Alzheimer's. Japanese drugmaker Eisai received conditional approval from the FDA in January based on early results suggesting Leqembi worked by clearing a sticky brain plaque linked to the disease. The FDA confirmed those results by reviewing data from a larger, 1,800-patient study in which the drug slowed memory and thinking decline by about five months in those who got the treatment, compared to those who got a dummy drug. “This confirmatory study verified that it is a safe and effective treatment for patients with Alzheimer’s disease," said FDA's neurology drug director, Dr. Teresa Buracchio, in a statement.The drug's prescribing information will carry the most serious type of warning, indicating that Leqembi can cause brain swelling and bleeding, side effects that can be dangerous in rare cases. The label notes that those problems are seen with other plaque-targeting Alzheimer's drugs.Click here to read… [33]