Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (08-14 May)

Economic

U.S. eyes Mideast-India transport network to counter China

The U.S. is talks with Saudi Arabia, India and the United Arab Emirates about a massive transport infrastructure project as Washington steps up engagement with the Middle East to counter China's influence. The project, reported by Axios on May 06, would include a network of railways among Gulf and Arab states, to be connected to India via shipping lanes from ports in the region. It was discussed May 07 by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, and Sullivan's Indian and Emirati counterparts in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The meeting aimed to "advance their shared vision of a more secure and prosperous Middle East region interconnected with India and the world," a White House readout said. The idea was first raised at I2U2, a forum established in 2021 for India, Israel, the U.S. and the UAE to discuss infrastructure projects in the Middle East. Riyadh was brought into the discussions more recently. The "fundamental notion" of I2U2 is to "connect South Asia to the Middle East to the United States in ways that advance our economic technology and diplomacy," Sullivan said in a speech May 11. "And we've already got a number of projects underway and some new exciting steps that we're looking forward to undertaking in the months ahead." Click here to read... [2]

China Signals Spying Fears Amid Probe of Consulting Firms

China signalled through state-run media that its national security agencies are engaged in a nationwide investigation into whether the due-diligence industry that has grown up to serve Western businesses in the country has been used for foreign espionage. State broadcaster China Central Television and other official news outlets said that amid Western pressure on China, profit-oriented consulting firms sometimes have a weak awareness of the country’s national security concerns, and had frequently operated at the edge of legality to gather information in sensitive sectors of the military, the defense industry, the economy and finance. CCTV said some consultants in China have caused harm to national security, ultimately becoming accomplices to the West in “spying, buying and extorting state secrets and intelligence.” The information-based due-diligence industry is critical to business dealings, from valuing corporate mergers to building supply chains, and many of the world’s foremost consulting firms have a China footprint. Yet the industry is suddenly in the crosshairs of Beijing’s efforts to limit foreign influence in China, including information gathering, by tightening government control over a wider swath of data and digital activities in the name of national security. Police have visited firms, in some cases detaining staff members. Executives say such allegations undermine Beijing’s effort to attract new foreign investment. Click here to read... [3]v

G-7 to help emerging economies move up supply chains for EVs, solar panels

The Group of Seven rich nations is considering a partnership with the World Bank to build more resilient supply chains for clean-energy technology by providing funding and other support to emerging markets, Nikkei has learned. The G-7 aims to lift these countries beyond resource extraction into the more profitable business of manufacturing products like electric vehicles and solar panels, by helping them secure the needed technology and infrastructure funding. The G-7 is considering contributing capital to the World Bank for the effort. The hope is to spur more diversified supply chains, reducing the need to rely on China for strategically important products as the global decarbonization push accelerates. The proposal will be made at a meeting of G-7 finance ministers and central bankers in Japan starting May 11, with the goal of reaching an agreement at next week's leaders’ summit in Hiroshima. The specifics would be hammered out within the year. G-7 host Japan has invited outside countries including India and Indonesia to both meetings, where the proposal will be presented as a new avenue to support developing countries, such as resource-rich African nations. Rich nations will provide technical support and training. G-7 finance ministers and central bankers affirmed their intent to "support low- and middle-income countries to play bigger roles in supply chains" at their previous meeting last month in Washington. Click here to read... [4]

Global tourism on track to make full recovery – UN

International tourism is well on its way to returning to pre-pandemic levels, with twice as many people traveling during the first quarter of 2023 than in the same period last year, according to the UN’s World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). Its latest data showed that an estimated 235 million tourists traveled internationally in the first three months of this year, with numbers reaching 80% of pre-pandemic levels. The tourism sector has shown its resilience, the UNWTO said, noting that 960 million people had traveled abroad last year, representing a recovery to 66% of pre-pandemic figures. The Middle East saw the strongest recovery and was the only region that exceeded its 2019 arrivals (+15%). It was also the first region to recover to pre-pandemic numbers in a full quarter, according to the report. Europe reached 90% of its pre-pandemic levels, driven by strong intra-regional demand. Meanwhile, Africa and the Americas were at 88% and 85% of their 2019 levels, respectively. Asia and the Pacific accelerated its recovery to 54% of pre-pandemic levels, the UN agency wrote, adding that the upward trend is set to accelerate now that most destinations, including China, have reopened.“The start of the year has shown again tourism’s unique ability to bounce back. In many places, we are close to or even above pre-pandemic levels of arrivals,” said UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili. Click here to read... [5]

Indian-backed port opens in Myanmar in answer to China's corridor project

A new port in Myanmar, built with assistance from New Delhi, has begun to receive container ships as both India and China seek closer economic ties with the Southeast Asian country. The first cargo vessel from the Indian metropolis of Kolkata arrived May 09 at Sittwe Port in Myanmar's Rakhine state. Officials from India and Myanmar's military government attended the port's inauguration ceremony. Sittwe Port forms a link in India's Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. A sea lane connects Kolkata in eastern India to Sittwe on Myanmar's western coast. From there, the corridor traces an inland route through Myanmar via the Kaladan River and a highway, crossing into north-eastern India. Ahead of the ceremony, Indian shipping minister SarbanandaSonowal hailed the port as "unlocking [India's] northeast for Southeast Asia." The two countries shook hands on the $484 million Kaladan project in 2008. New Delhi is providing support across the board. New Delhi sees the new Kaladan project as a way to connect isolated north-eastern India to the Indian Ocean, providing a catalyst for economic growth. The region is linked to the rest of India by only the narrow Siliguri Corridor, a bottleneck squeezed by neighbouring countries with China looming to the north. Northeast India has witnessed deadly border clashes between Indian and Chinese troops. Click here to read... [6]

China’s youth unemployment hits record high in April in ‘worrying sign’ for economic recovery

Unemployment among China’s youth rose above 20 per cent for the first time in April, and the situation could continue to worsen, analysts said, presenting a growing economic and social risk for policymakers. The jobless rate for the 16-24 age group hit a record high of 20.4 per cent in April, up from 19.6 per cent in March, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed on May 09. The overall urban surveyed jobless rate stood at 5.2 per cent in April, down from 5.3 per cent in March, but with 11.6 million college graduates set to enter the workforce this year, youth unemployment could increase further in the coming months. Adding to the mixed post-coronavirus economic recovery, China’s retail sales and industrial production also fell short of expectations last month. “Economic activities were weaker than expected in April. The headline growth rate was high, but that’s due to the low base last year. The unemployment rate for the young labour force rose above 20 per cent, which is a worrying sign,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. Retail sales in China rose by 18.4 per cent in April, year on year, but the surge was largely caused by a low comparison base after the figure had dropped by 11.1 per cent in April last year. Click here to read... [7]

China aims to cook up job growth with return of street-stall economy

China's major cities have once again embraced hawkers after years of trying to clear them from streets, hoping the so-called street-stall economy will boost sluggish recovery in job growth and spending since the end of zero-COVID restrictions. Starting September, Shenzhen will allow street vendors to set up stalls within designated areas. Shanghai is considering allowing street stalls at night markets and pedestrian-only zones within certain times. Details of the plan will be published this month, Chinese financial news group Yicai reported. Beijing and Lanzhou, the capital of Gansu province, have relaxed restrictions as well. The moves are primarily designed to create new employment. China gained 2.97 million urban jobs in January-March, 4% more than a year earlier. But the figure still fell 8% short of gains made in the same quarter in 2019, before the spread of the coronavirus. Stalls could also help spur consumption. "Revenge spending" has swept China since the end of its zero-COVID restrictions, which has allowed more people to eat out and travel. Plans to promote spending on services were laid out an April 28 meeting of the Politburo, the Communist Party's top decision-making body. Street vendors were also in the spotlight in 2020 when COVID-19 started to spread. Chengdu gained around 100,000 jobs in two months after allowing street stalls in March. Click here to read... [8]

Tokyo ranked as world’s second wealthiest city after New York

Tokyo ranked second after New York among the world’s wealthiest cities in terms of millionaires, according to a report released by a British consulting firm. But compared with U.S. and Chinese cities that also made it to the top 10 list, Japan’s capital is home to a relatively low number of billionaires. Henley & Partners said April 18 it compiled the list based on the number of individuals with investable wealth--property, cash and stocks--in excess of $1 million (134 million yen). New York was in the first place with 340,000 millionaires, followed by Tokyo with 290,300. However, Tokyo has 250 centi-millionaires, individuals whose personal wealth was estimated to top $100 million, which is about one-third of the figure for New York. The capital also boasts 14 billionaires in U.S. dollar terms, the least among the top 10 cities. The British firm noted that “wealth is relatively evenly distributed in Tokyo with the middle classes and lower-tier millionaires controlling most of the city’s capital.” Three U.S. cities and three in China made it to the top 10. Of them, five cities, excluding Hong Kong, saw increases of between 35 and 72 percent in the number of wealthy individuals from 2012. Click here to read... [9]

Lower House passes bill to shore up defense industry

The Lower House on May 9 approved legislation to bolster a defense industry that has seen many Japanese contractors leaving it because of low profitability, but critics charge the bill may just prop up inefficient companies. Some of the provisions of the bill are designed to address and shore up the unique nature of the defense industry in Japan, in which overseas arms exports are strictly limited. While a number of major companies, such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd. and Mitsubishi Electric Corp., manufacture destroyers, fighter jets and other defense equipment, such companies are supported by thousands of subcontractors. The total scale of the defense industry is estimated to be about 3 trillion yen ($22 billion), but many companies decide to leave the sector because of low profitability as the DefenseMinistry is the only customer. One measure in the bill would provide support for companies seeking to find customers outside Japan. All expenses related to modifying specifications and functions for export of the defense equipment would be subsidized. About 40 billion yen has been set aside in the fiscal 2023 budget to provide such support. Click here to read... [10]

Cluster of Chinese vessels spotted near Russian rig off Vietnam-ship monitors

A Chinese research vessel flanked by coast guard and nearly a dozen boats on May 10 entered a gas block operated by Russian and Vietnamese state firms, two monitoring groups said, another potential flashpoint in the South China Sea. It follows a pattern of assertive moves of late by Beijing in its neighbours’ exclusive economic zones (EEZ), as it presses its claim to sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, testing the United States and its allies at a time of heightened regional tension. Strong relations between Russia and China are a major factor supporting global stability, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in March, but the two countries have conflicting interests in the South China Sea.The Chinese research ship, two coast guard and 11 fishing boats entered block 04-03 of Vietsovpetro, a venture between Russia’s Zarubezhneft and Petro Vietnam, and were still in the area by nightfall, data from two independent vessel monitors reviewed by Reuters showed. The Chinese group was also close to blocks 05-1 B and 05-1 C, operated by Idemitsu Oil & Gas, a unit of Japan’s Idemitsu Kosan, the data showed. China has been accused of using its coast guard and an armada of fishing boats widely considered militia to intimidate and disrupt energy activities, including off Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. Beijing says it is lawfully operating in its waters. Click here to read... [11]

What’s Next For The World’s Largest Oil Company As Profits Decline?

Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, has made headlines once again with its lower Q1 profits of $31.9bn, which is a 19.25% decrease compared to the same period a year earlier when it made $39.5bn. This drop in profits can be attributed to global market developments, such as reduced oil prices and production cuts. Despite this, Aramco's overall profits remain staggering when compared to its peers. In its report, the Saudi company revealed that the decrease in profits was primarily due to lower crude oil prices, although this was partially offset by lower taxes and higher finance and income. The global markets have been experiencing volatility lately, with a partial banking crisis affecting the markets, and the anticipated demand surge from Asia, especially China, failing to materialize. Aramco is also facing tough competition from Russia, which is eating into its market share in Asia's major markets by offering significant discounts, leading to partially reduced prices. Despite the decrease in overall revenues by 10.61% to SAR459.8bn in Q1 2023, compared to SAR517bn in Q1 2022, Aramco's net-profit increased by 3.75% when compared to the $30.73bn reported in Q4 2022. Amin Nasser, the CEO of Aramco, attributed this success to the company's unwavering reliability, focus on cost, and ability to respond to market conditions. Click here to read... [12]

Russia reveals larger-than-expected budget deficit

Russia’s budget deficit surged in the first four months of the year, surpassing the government’s full-year target as energy revenues dropped under pressure from Western sanctions, the Finance Ministry reported on May 10. The budget gap rose to 3.42 trillion rubles ($45 billion) in January-April, exceeding the planned figure of 2.9 trillion ($37.7 billion), according to the ministry. Revenues fell by 22% to 7.8 trillion rubles ($101 billion), while spending increased by 26% to 11.2 trillion rubles ($145.6 billion) compared to the same period last year. Russia’s oil and gas revenues dropped 52% to 2.3 trillion rubles ($30 billion) between January and April, while non-energy revenues increased by 5% to 5.5 trillion rubles ($72 billion). “The big question we can’t answer yet is what will happen to expenditures in the rest of the year,” said Renaissance Capital economist Sofya Donets. “What happened with revenues, both energy and non-energy, was to be expected.” At the same time, the Finance Ministry noted that federal revenues showed signs of stabilization in April. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed concerns over a widened budget gap and pointed to “good macroeconomic indicators.” He added that “the situation is absolutely under control and there is a necessary safety cushion.” The ministry previously predicted that a change in taxation in the wake of an oil price cap imposed by the G7 countries and the EU on Russian energy exports would help earnings recover later this year. Click here to read... [13]

Türkiye defers payment for Russian gas – Reuters

Türkiye has agreed with Russia to delay a $600 million natural gas payment until next year, Reuters reported on May 10, citing sources. Last week, Ankara announced an agreement with Russian energy giant Gazprom on deferring payment for part of the natural gas it imported, after a surge in prices last year, without specifying the amounts involved. However, sources have told Reuters on condition of anonymity that Türkiye may defer up to $4 billion in energy payments to Russia until 2024 under the terms of the agreement. Ankara’s current account deficit soared last year, driven by an increase in energy сosts. Türkiye reportedly spent almost $100 billion on energy imports in 2022. In the year to February, the country imported 39% of its total 53.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas from Russia. The delay on gas payments is seen as relief for the Turkish budget, which has been strained largely due to the fiscal policy to support the lira.“Officially a payment worth $600 million has been postponed to next year. The increase in energy prices had a huge impact on this,” Reuters said, citing a source. The outlet added that further payments could be pushed back in the coming months, depending on energy prices. Türkiye is highly reliant on oil and gas imports from Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Nigeria, and Algeria, as well as on liquefied natural gas supplies from Qatar and the US. Click here to read... [14]

Germany greenlights Chinese stake in Hamburg Port

The German government has given a final approval to a long-debated agreement that allows China’s state-run company COSCO to purchase a major stake in a container terminal in Hamburg Port despite security concerns and protests from members of the governing coalition. Berlin gave its go-ahead to the controversial deal in October but announced plans to revisit the decision last month. The review came shortly after the BSI, Germany’s national cybersecurity agency, classified the Tollerort container terminal as critical German infrastructure, meaning the acquisition could have faced heightened restrictions. In a statement on May 10, a spokesperson for the German government said that Berlin was “sticking” to the decision from October without making any amendments, adding that the deal was in line with the BSI’s declaration of the terminal being vital national infrastructure. According to the statement, the government had informed domestic port logistics firm HHLA and COSCO that the deal was compliant with a cabinet decision that limits the ownership of the Chinese state company in the terminal to less than 25%. The compromise followed intense opposition to the deal from the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP), who are coalition partners of Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD). The coalition had called the deal to be reconsidered as well as potentially for COSCO’s stake in the terminal to be reduced. Click here to read... [15]

Asia’s Failing Economy: Political Turmoil Deepens Pakistan’s Spiral

A year of political instability that led up to the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan this week has crippled Pakistan’s economy, plunged millions into poverty and left the country at the edge of default. The deadly protests, detention of top members of his party and deployment of troops since his arrest will likely accelerate that economic descent. More than 3,500 of Mr. Khan’s supporters were arrested this week, police say. A court in Islamabad granted Mr. Khan bail on May 12 after the country’s Supreme Court ruled the manner of his arrest on May 09 unlawful. The confrontation between political parties and a military prone to coups has even split the judiciary, which might have been expected to arbitrate the clash. The contest has been so ferocious because the authority of the military, which has dominated Pakistan almost since its foundation in 1947, is under assault to an extent never before seen. Over the past year, Pakistan’s foreign-exchange reserves have emptied, while the International Monetary Fund has suspended its bailout for a second time. Mr. Khan was ousted in April last year. His replacement as premier leads a shaky coalition that must hold national elections this year and has balked at taking unpopular decisions needed for the sake of the economy. Inflation has topped 35%, with the rupee losing half its value against the dollar as industrial production has shrunk. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic>

Top US and China envoys meet in Vienna, the highest in-person engagement since Xi and Biden in November/h5>

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan held “candid” talks on Taiwan and the Russian war in Ukraine with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi for two days this week, the highest-level US-China engagement since presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden met last year. In Vienna, Austria, on May 10 and May 11, “the two sides had candid, substantive, and constructive discussions on key issues in the US-China bilateral relationship, global and regional security issues, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and cross-strait issues, among other topics”, the White House announced. “This meeting was part of ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communication and responsibly manage competition,” it added. “The two sides agreed to maintain this important strategic channel of communication to advance these objectives, building on the engagement between [Biden and Xi] in Bali, Indonesia, in November 2022.” A senior Biden administration official briefing reporters after the meeting in Vienna said Sullivan and Wang met for more than eight hours over the two-day period. China’s state news agency Xinhua reported around the same time as the White House statement that the two officials “held candid, in-depth, substantive, and constructive discussions on removing obstacles and stabilising the China-US relations”. According to the Chinese readout, the Taiwan issue was high on the agenda during the talks. Click here to read... [17]

U.S. sanctions on China defense chief loom over chance for talks

American sanctions against Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu have emerged as a sticking point ahead of an opportunity for the two sides to resume defense dialogue amid simmering tensions. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to attend the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore, scheduled to begin June 2. Li may also be present, as China usually sends its defense minister to the forum. A meeting between the two would mark the first talks between American and Chinese defense chiefs since November 2022 and the first since Li assumed his post in March. Austin had sought a call with his Chinese counterpart after the U.S. downed a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon in February, but Beijing refused. Li remains under sanctions imposed in 2018 by the Trump administration over acquisitions of military aircraft and missile system equipment from Russia. China is urging the U.S. to lift these ahead of the Singapore event, according to a source familiar with discussions between the two countries. "The Secretary of Defense is able to engage in official United States Government business with People's Republic of China (PRC) Minister of National Defense, Li Shangfu, despite Li's sanctions designation," a Department of Defense spokesperson told Nikkei on May 10. Click here to read... [18]

US and Taiwan in talks for US$500 million in free weapons after arms deliveries stalled

Taiwan is in talks with the Pentagon for half a billion US dollars in free weapons following delays in much-needed arms deliveries, the island’s defence minister said on May 08. Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng told the Taiwanese legislature that the talks had been under way for at least four months, confirming for the first time that the United States would send the free munitions. “These extra weapons will be given to us for free and will not be deducted from the purchase list which has been delayed by the US,” Chiu said when pressed by lawmakers on the deal. Taiwan has complained of delays to US weapon deliveries, including Stinger missiles and advanced F-16V fighter jets. The US authorised the sale of 250 Stingers to Taiwan in 2019 but the shoulder-mounted missiles have been in demand in Ukraine. Asked what kind of weapons would be involved, Chiu said: “They will include missiles and some logistic services to help train our soldiers so that they will be familiar with the weapons’ operations as soon as they arrive.” “These [extra] weapons will be items readily available in the US inventory,” Chiu said, adding that timing of the delivery would be announced by the US. The US Congress authorised up to US$1 billion worth of weapons aid for Taiwan in the 2023 budget as part of the presidential drawdown authority. Click here to read... [19]

China says PLA Rocket Force joined Shandong carrier group in drills near US base in western Pacific

State media disclosure of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force joining the Shandong carrier group for drills near the US naval base of Guam is a show of force by the Chinese military, according to analysts. This came as Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported that the Shandong flotilla had wrapped up a nearly 30-day exercise in the western Pacific region that included unprecedented systematic joint operations with the rocket force and other fighting wings. The exercise, which took place about 400 nautical miles (741km) northwest of Guam last month, involved the Shandong aircraft carrier, a Type 055 destroyer, two Type 052D destroyers, two Type 054A frigates and a Type 901 replenishment ship, according to Japan’s Self-Defence Force. While it is not uncommon for the Chinese navy to carry out drills near Guam, some analysts said disclosing that the rocket force took part indicated a deterrence strategy by the Chinese military. They said it highlighted the PLA’s enhanced capacity for precision hits on moving surface targets or naval bases beyond the so-called first island chain of defence. The chain, which usually refers to the archipelagos running through Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines, is considered by some military strategists to be a formidable barrier for the PLA in exiting or entering the western Pacific. Click here to read... [20]

EU moves to recalibrate China strategy with ‘clear-eyed but not confrontational’ approach

The European Union must adopt a “clear-eyed” but “not confrontational” approach to a China seeking “to build a new world order” in its own image. That was the advice handed to the EU’s 27 member states before its ministers hold crunch talks on reconfiguring the bloc’s policy towards Beijing in Stockholm on May 12. A position paper meant to steer the debate and seen by the Post was distributed by the EU’s External Access Service – its de facto foreign bureau – to capitals on May 11. It suggested cosmetic changes to the EU’s China strategy rather than a wholesale overhaul. New emphasis is placed on hot-button issues like Ukraine and Taiwan, while economic realism has replaced the erstwhile expectation that Beijing might be willing to reform its market to suit European businesses. Ministers have been urged to adhere to the 2019 designation of China as a partner, competitor and systemic rival, “even if the weighting between these different elements may vary according to China’s behaviour”. “It is obvious,” the document stated, “that in recent years the rivalry aspect has become more important.”In an accompanying letter sent to the bloc’s foreign ministers, top diplomat Joseph Borrell outlined three new prongs that will define the relationship going forward: values, economic security, and strategic security – namely Ukraine and Taiwan. Click here to read... [21]

Myanmar overshadows ASEAN summit talks on economy, South China Sea

The crisis in Myanmar and a brazen attack on an Association of Southeast Asian Nations humanitarian convoy there are overshadowing the regional bloc's summit this week, with Indonesia and Singapore condemning the violence. Eight leaders of the 10-member ASEAN are set to kick off the two-day summit on May 10 in the resort area of Labuan Bajo, on the eastern Indonesian island of Flores. Leaders from Myanmar's military regime were not invited, while Thailand, which is holding general elections on Sunday, will be represented by Deputy Prime Minister Don Pramudwinai. Indonesia, the largest economy in the bloc, holds the rotating chairmanship this year and declared the theme of the summit to be "ASEAN Matters: Epicentrum of Growth." While this suggests a focus on the economy, the Myanmar issue was already dominating talks ahead of the summit. Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on May 07 highlighted his government's three priorities for dealing with Myanmar: ending violence, humanitarian aid and dialogue involving various stakeholders, adding that "sanctions are not a solution." "We want ... Myanmar to also play active roles in these dialogues," he said.On May 08, however, the president revealed that officials delivering aid from the ASEAN humanitarian assistance center had been attacked, without offering details. Click here to read... [22]

Japan, South Korea, U.S. radar link to reduce missile blind spots

Japan and South Korea aim to lower blind spots on North Korean missile activity by linking their radar systems through the U.S., a move designed to allow the sharing of launch data in real time. The idea is for the U.S. to link the radar systems used by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, the South Korean military and U.S. troops stationed in both Japan and South Korea. They could share data like where North Korean missiles are launched, as well as the speed and distance travelled. The U.S. already shares data on North Korean launches separately with Japan and with South Korea through Link 16, a communication system used by NATO and other nations. This means it can most likely provide a real-time link between Japan and South Korea with some adjustments. The South Korean military operates a radar network near the Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas to monitor moves by Pyongyang. Because of its proximity to North Korea, the network suffers from fewer blind spots caused by the curvature of the Earth, and can better monitor missiles at lower altitudes than radar in Japan. Meanwhile, the SDF deploys vessels equipped with the Aegis missile defense system in the Sea of Japan, which gives it an advantage when monitoring submarine-launched missiles. Click here to read... [23]

Pakistan’s ex-PM Imran Khan arrested, sparking violence

Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan was arrested and dragged from court May 09 as he appeared to face charges in multiple graft cases, a dramatic escalation of political tensions that sparked violent demonstrations by his angry supporters across the country. The arrest of Khan, who was ousted in a no-confidence vote in April 2022 but remains the leading opposition figure, represented the latest confrontation to roil Pakistan, which has seen former prime ministers arrested over the years and interventions by its powerful military. At least one person was reported killed in clashes between protesters and the military in Quetta, the capital of Baluchistan province, with another five people wounded there, while about 15 injuries were reported amid similar violence in Karachi, Peshawar, Rawalpindi and Lahore. Police fired tear gas to disperse demonstrations.Amid the violence, officials at Pakistan’s telecommunication authority said regulators blocked social media, including Twitter, and internet service was suspended in the capital of Islamabad and other cities. Classes at some private schools were cancelled for May 10. Khan was removed from the Islamabad High Court by security agents from the National Accountability Bureau, said Fawad Chaudhry, a senior official with his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, and then shoved into an armoured car and whisked away. Click here to read... [24]

Mystery Chinese spacecraft returns to Earth after 276 days

An experimental Chinese spacecraft returned to Earth on May 08 after staying in orbit for 276 days, China’s state media reported, completing a landmark mission to test the country’s reusable space technologies. The uncrewed spacecraft returned to the Jiuquan launch centre in northwest China on May 08 as scheduled, according to state media. No details were given on what the spacecraft was, what technologies were tested, how high it flew, and where its orbits had taken it since its launch in early August 2022. Images of the craft have also yet to be released to the public. The test marks an “important” breakthrough in China’s research into reusable spacecraft technology that will provide a more convenient and inexpensive way to mount future space missions, state media reported. In 2021, what may have been a similar spacecraft flew to the edge of space and returned to Earth on the same day in a mission that was also kept largely under wraps. It landed on Earth “horizontally,” according to China’s main space contractor at the time. Commentators on Chinese social media have speculated that Beijing has been developing a spacecraft like the U.S. Air Force’s X-37B, an autonomous spaceplane that can remain in orbit for years. Click here to read... [25]

Japan working toward opening of NATO liaison office in Tokyo

Japan is working toward opening a NATO liaison office in Tokyo, Japan's ambassador to the U.S. Koji Tomita said on May 09. Tomita made the comment at an event hosted by the National Press Club in Washington when asked about a report in the Nikkei Asia this month saying that the U.S.-led alliance was planning to open such an office, its first in Asia, to facilitate consultations in the region."The point you mentioned is one of the things that we are working on to strengthen our partnership. But I really haven't heard any final confirmation of that, but we are working in that direction," he said. NATO has not confirmed the Nikkei report, saying it would not go into details of NATO allies' ongoing deliberations. Tomita, who was briefing on the G7 summit Japan will host in Hiroshima from May 19-21, said the meeting would be looking for closer alignment of the group's approach towards China. Nikkei Asia said the liaison office was due to open next year and would enable discussions with NATO's security partners, such as South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, with geopolitical challenges from China and Russia in mind. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg visited Japan in January and pledged with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to strengthen ties in the face off "historic" security challenges, citing Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's rising military power. Click here to read... [26]

Iran and Egypt to restore diplomatic ties

Iran and Egypt are on track to restore diplomatic relations and reopen their respective embassies, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission has said. MP Fada-Hossein Maleki added that President EbrahimRaisi and his Egyptian counterpart, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, will meet in person in the near future. Speaking to Iran’s Tasnim news agency on May 14, Maleki said that talks between Tehran and Cairo are currently being held in Iraq. The lawmaker described the atmosphere during the negotiations as positive. In January, the Iranian Foreign Ministry revealed that its head, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, sat down with the Egyptian head of state in late 2022. The ministry spokesperson said at the time that the two countries “have basically no problem for dialogue, meetings, and exchange of views.” Relations between Cairo and Tehran were severed in 1980 following the Islamic Revolution in Iran. Meanwhile, in mid-March, longstanding rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia announced they were planning to restore diplomatic relations, which they broke off in 2016. The talks and subsequent accord between the two regional powers was brokered by China, with the US conspicuously absent from the affair. The fact that Beijing managed to get the two rivals to talk and reach an agreement was heralded as a major victory for Chinese diplomacy. Click here to read... [27]

Europe Presses White House to Address Iran’s Growing Nuclear Programme

Alarmed by Iran’s progress in enriching uranium at close to weapons-grade levels, European countries are pressing the Biden administration to revive a diplomatic track with Tehran that they hope would help avoid a possible nuclear crisis. After 18 months of negotiations, talks on reviving the 2015 nuclear accord collapsed in August when Tehran rejected a deal that would have largely restored the original pact’s terms. Iran is now amassing 60% highly enriched uranium and recently produced a small amount of near-weapons grade material, according to the United Nations atomic agency. European officials say time is running out to diplomatically address an Iranian nuclear programme that puts Tehran as little as several months away from being able to develop a nuclear weapon, but they are worried that the White House has shelved the issue until after the 2024 election. They acknowledged that any new effort to keep a lid on Iran’s nuclear advances may fail to stop Iran from eventually getting a weapon. Reviving the nuclear deal was a top Biden administration goal and senior U.S. officials say Washington still favors a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear challenge. But with the presidential race looming, European diplomats say that after months of discussions, the U.S. has floated no new initiative that could lead to talks. U.S. officials say different ideas are under discussion. Click here to read... [28]

Kemal Kilicdaroglu: The challenger seeking to unseat Erdogan

For more than a decade, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu struggled in the shadow of his rival RecepTayyip Erdogan, the country’s most electorally successful politician. The mild-mannered, bespectacled former bureaucrat seemed the antithesis to Erdogan’s bombastic style and was therefore doomed – according to the perceived wisdom – to yet another loss at the polls. Some opposition supporters even feared his presidential candidacy would snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as Erdogan has struggled with an economic crisis and the aftermath of February’s deadly earthquakes in southeastern Turkey. However, since the March announcement that he would stand as the candidate for a six-party strong opposition alliance – later endorsed by parties outside the “Table of Six” coalition – Kilicdaroglu edged ahead in the polls against a president renowned for his political acumen and durability.But in the first round of voting on May 14, Erdogan managed to secure 49.52 percent of the vote, compared to Kilicdaroglu’s 44.88 percent, and is now the strong favourite in May 28 run-off.Ahead of the first round, Kilicdarogluhas centred his campaign on a promise to return Turkey to parliamentary democracy – ending the presidential system introduced by Erdogan that critics deride as “one-man rule”. After the vote, the sprightly 74-year-old has hardened his anti-migration stance in an effort to win the support of nationalists. Click here to read... [29]

US to bolster ‘defensive posture’ in Gulf: White House

The Pentagon will bolster its “defensive posture” in the Gulf, a White House spokesman has said, as Washington accused Tehran of carrying out increased attacks on commercial shipping in the strategic region of the Middle East. During a news briefing on May 12, John Kirby accused Iran of harassing, attacking or interfering with the navigational rights of 15 internationally-flagged commercial vessels over the past two years. “Today, the Department of Defense will be making a series of moves to bolster our defensive posture in the Arabian Gulf,” the White House spokesman told reporters. It remains unclear what additional assets the US military will move to the region. “We have seen repeated Iranian threats, armed seizures and attacks against commercial shippers who are exercising their navigational rights and freedoms in international waterways,” Kirby added. Iran seized two international oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, including one headed to the US, in late April and early May. Iranian officials said one of the tankers collided with an Iranian vessel and tried to flee, while the other was taken into Iranian territorial waters as the result of a judicial order following a legal complaint. But the Reuters news agency reported that the seizures followed the confiscation of an Iranian oil tanker by the US days earlier that had not been publicly announced. Click here to read... [30]

Russia, Syria, Turkey and Iran hold high-level talks in Moscow

The foreign ministers of Russia, Syria, Turkey and Iran have met in Moscow for high-level talks on rebuilding ties between Ankara and Damascus after years of animosity during Syria’s war.Syria’s Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad was quoted as saying by the Syrian state news agency SANA that “despite all the negatives of the past years, there is an opportunity” for Damascus and Ankara to work together.But the priority for the Syrian government was ending the presence of all foreign militaries, including Turkey’s. “Without progress in this matter, we will remain stagnant and will not reach any real results,” Mekdad was quoted as saying. Syria’s northwest includes territory held by opposition groups, including armed forces backed by Turkey. Russia’s foreign ministry said in a statement that there had been a “positive and constructive atmosphere” and that the countries’ deputy foreign ministers would be tasked with preparing a roadmap to advance Syria-Turkey ties. In his opening speech, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed hope that the meeting would pave the way to drafting a road map for normalising Turkey-Syria relations. Lavrov said he sees Moscow’s task as “not only in consolidating politically the progress that has been made, but also in determining general guidelines for further movement”. Moscow is Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s main ally and Russia has encouraged reconciliation with Turkey. Click here to read... [31]

Health

Japan lowers COVID threat to flu level in major policy shift

Japan on May 08 downgraded the legal status of COVID-19 to the same category as seasonal influenza and greatly relaxed its intensive medical rules, marking a major shift in its approach after three years of dealing with the coronavirus. The reclassification of COVID-19 to Class 5 means decisions on anti-coronavirus prevention measures are up to individuals and businesses. The government has removed most of its guidelines, such as quarantine periods of seven days for people who test positive for the disease and five days for those who have been in close contact with an infected person. Residents of Japan are also to be charged for coronavirus-related outpatient care and hospitalization, although subsidies are available for expensive treatment. COVID-19 patients will also receive medical treatment in ordinary hospitals instead of designated facilities. The disease was categorized as a special public health threat in 2020 equivalent to or stricter than Class 2, which covers infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS.The government formally decided on April 27 to downgrade the coronavirus' legal status as the vaccination program, among other factors, has made the disease less deadly, while calls for rejuvenating the pandemic-hit economy have grown. The preparedness of the health care system to withstand a future outbreak was also taken into account. Click here to read... [32]

Tuberculosis rates rocket amid Ukraine, Sudan conflicts

The world must invest more to develop new vaccines and tackle a surge in tuberculosis (TB) fuelled by the impact of COVID-19 and conflicts including in Ukraine and Sudan, health officials and activists say. “End TB now,” chanted protesters at a crowded meeting of top United Nations health leaders on May 08 at the UN headquarters in New York. Speeches were made by TB sufferers and UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed spoke about how her father passed on tuberculosis to her two-year-old sister. The disease claimed his life at age 60 but her sister, now 50, is a survivor. “Tuberculosis is the biggest infectious disease killer in the world today, taking the lives of around 4,400 people every day around the world, including 700 children,” said Dr LucicaDitiu, executive director of the Stop TB Partnership, at the gathering. Mohammed said the global response to tuberculosis has saved 74 million lives since 2000. But in 2021 alone, the disease infected more than 10.5 million people and killed 6.1 million. It is now the leading cause of death for people with HIV. The TB epidemic is driven by a host of factors, including poverty, malnutrition and HIV, and disproportionately affects the most vulnerable in all countries, Mohammed said, stressing these drivers of the disease must be addressed. Click here to read... [33]