India and China: Complexities of a Competitive Relationship

Abstract

The complexities between India and China is a multifaceted dynamic, involving both competition and rivalry in their relationship. Both countries strive to promote their national interests and establish themselves as prominent actors in the Asia-Pacific region and the global economic landscape. This competition is accompanied by territorial disputes and border security issues that have the potential to escalate into military conflict. At the same time the economic cooperation between both the countries has been complex and multifaceted. While there have been some areas of cooperation, the overall relationship has been marked by competition and apprehensions, and the strategic challenge is further complicated by the fact that both nations are nuclear-armed. The implications for regional stability and global security are far-reaching and underscore the need for a careful and nuanced understanding of the factors shaping the relationship between India and China.

Introduction

The India-China strategic challenge refers to the complex and multifaceted relationship between two of the world's largest and fastest-growing economies and military powers. This challenge is shaped by a combination of historical, political, economic, military, and ideological factors that have led to discord and contention between the two countries. Though the relationship is marked by a complex interplay of cooperation in few areas like climate change and world trade talks, and rivalry in others, still both countries seek to advance their national interests while managing differences and preventing conflict.^[1]

The Sino-India rivalry has, in fact, become multi-dimensional, expanding to both land and sea, and strategic frictions have been growing at the bilateral, regional and multilateral levels. While India’s lack of support on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has emerged as an Achilles Heel in the progress of China’s BRI,^[2] India’s growing strategic cooperation with the US and Japan is viewed as a serious concern. China perceives that with a favourable strategic environment in support of India’s growing strategic and economic stature, India is not only attempting to squeeze China out from South Asia and the Indian Ocean but through its growing alignment with the US, Japan, Australia and few Southeast countries is also aiming to contain China. India’s assertive stance towards China through ‘issue by issue’ diplomacy on the bilateral issue is seen as an attempt to coerce China in making concession on boundary and trade issues.^[3]

These challenges have significant implications for both countries, as well as for regional stability and global security. To effectively address the India-China strategic challenge, it is important to understand its causes and the complex interplay of factors that shape the relationship between the two countries.

This article aims to provide an overview of the complex and multi-faceted relationship between India and China. The focus of the article will be on examining the causes of the India-China strategic challenge and the implications for regional stability and global security.

The Strategic Environment

Significance of India's strategic challenge with China goes far beyond the borders of the two nations and has implications for regional and global security. The relationship is characterized by a nuanced interaction of collaboration and competition, as both nations strive to promote their national interests while navigating their differences. This dynamics has far-reaching implications for regional stability and global security, as it affects the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.^[4]

Territorial disputes and border security issues between India and China have the potential to escalate into boundary conflict(s), which can have damaging consequences for the entire region and the world.^[5] Moreover, the economic competition between the two countries is intensifying, and extending to areas like Arctic policies, oil exploration and trade openings in Africa. Both nations seek to secure resources, access markets and establish global influence.^[6] This competition has the potential to undermine regional economic cooperation and stability, which could have consequences for global economic growth and development. The strategic challenge between India and China is further complicated by the fact that both nations are nuclear-armed, meaning that any conflict between them would have catastrophic consequences for regional and global security.^[7]

The regional landscape is also constantly evolving and has a significant impact on India-China relations. The economic and military rise of China, and the emergence of non-traditional security threats such as terrorism and cyber-attacks have redefined the strategic landscape in the region. India finds itself at the crossroads of several key geopolitical trends, including the shifting balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region, the changing nature of global economic competition, and the increasing threat posed by non-traditional security challenges.^[8]

India's rapidly growing economy and expanding military capabilities make it a major player in the region and even beyond. The country is increasingly being seen supporting the principles of freedom, rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty and territorial integrity.^[9] India's endorsement of these values may be interpreted as a challenge to China's regional aspirations and an apparent lack of respect for some of these principles. This may result in China taking a more assertive stance in regional disputes and further complicating its relationship with India. China's is therefore engaging in strategic partnerships with other nations, and seeking to balance India's rise by increasing its influence in India's neighbouring countries.

India’s active participation in global affairs through initiatives like the United Nations, G-20, Grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and its commitment to pursuing a multi-aligned foreign policy, balancing its relationships with major powers like USA and Russia, and engaging with its neighbours in the region to promote stability and cooperation,^[10] is perceived by China as an attempt to contain or counter-balance its influence in the region. This may again lead to increased competition and mistrust between the two countries in various regional fora.

Similarly, India's Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India) initiative, launched in 2020, which aims to boost domestic production, reduce reliance on imports, and promote economic self-sufficiency^[11] may be seen as competitive and antagonistic by China.

India-China Strategic Paradox

While factors like rivalry, mistrust and competition have played a role in shaping the relationship, the two nations strive to advance their regional and global interests.^[12] Long-standing border disputes, such as Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, have led to friction and military standoffs between the two countries. These unresolved issues remain a significant source of mistrust.^[13] Despite several rounds of talks and negotiations, including the 26th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) that was held on 22 February 2023 in Beijing,^[14] the two sides have been unable to reach any solution to the border dispute, which continues remains a key source of strife between the two nations.

Violations of ceasefire agreements and aggressive military posturing and incursions by China has made the border dispute increasingly volatile in recent years. India's engagement with China has got further complicated as the Chinese attempts to unilaterally alter the status quo along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh starting from April-May 2020 seriously disturbed the peace and tranquillity in border areas.^[15]

This has led to increased military deployments and infrastructure construction in the border regions, heightening the risk of a military confrontation between the two nations.^[16] The Foreign Ministry’s Annual Report of 2022 states that, "India's engagement with China is ‘complex’. The two sides have agreed that pending the final settlement of the boundary question, maintenance of peace and tranquillity in the border areas is an essential basis for the overall development of the bilateral relationship."

China has undertaken initiatives like the BRI, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), trade agreements and military presence to increase its influence in South and South East Asia. Under the BRI, China is financing and building infrastructure projects in countries across Asia, including ports, highways, and railways, with the aim of enhancing connectivity and promoting trade.^[17] On the other hand, India is also strengthening its military and defence ties with other countries in the region and is actively participating in regional forums such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, the East Asia Summit, and the IORA. Additionally, India has launched initiatives like the Act East Policy and the SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) Doctrine to further enhance its presence and influence in the region. This has led to increased competition between the two nations, as they seek to assert their influence and secure their strategic interests.

Another major area of concern is the growing economic and military asymmetry between India and China, with China rapidly expanding its economic and military power and influence in the region and globally. In the economic realm, the asymmetry is pronounced, with China being one of the world's largest and fastest-growing economies, while India is still a developing nation with a large and steadily growing economy. Despite frosty bilateral relations, the trade between India and China touched an all-time high of $136 billion in 2022 and the trade deficit crossed the $100 billion mark for the first time.^[18] This economic asymmetry has led to concerns about China's ability to leverage its economic power to shape the regional and global order in ways that are detrimental to India's interests.

In the military realm, the asymmetry between the two nations is similarly pronounced, with China having a significantly larger and more advanced military, including a growing navy and nuclear arsenal.^[19] This military asymmetry has led to concerns about China's ability to project power and influence in the region and beyond, and its potential to use military force to achieve its strategic objectives. At present, India also has the ability to project its military power and influence not only in South and Southeast Asia but even beyond. The Indian military is one of the largest and well-equipped in the region, with advanced weapons systems and a large pool of trained personnel. India has also been increasing its defence cooperation and partnerships with other countries, including the United States, Japan, and Australia, through joint military exercises and defence agreements.^[20] Additionally, India has been expanding its naval capabilities, with the aim of developing a blue-water navy that can operate far from its shores.^[21]

Unarguably, there is exists power and status asymmetry between China and India. Although at the time of the emergence of two countries as newly independent nation states both countries had near parity, China has emerged as a stronger economic power since the start of reforms in the late seventies. Despite India’s rapid rise in the past three decades, the power gap between India and China is still wide. In addition, China’s international status is also more established with membership of many great power clubs (viz., United Nations Security Council, Nuclear Supplier Group etc.), which India still aspires to join.^[22]

Implications for Regional Stability and Global Security

The India-China strategic challenge has significant implications for regional and global security, as both nations are key players in the Asia-Pacific region and are actively engaged in a range of regional and global security issues. For example, both nations are members of major regional organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the BRICS, and play important roles in global governance institutions such as the United Nations.^[23]

Another global security implications is on the account of both the nations being nuclear-armed. Any conflict between the two nations would have catastrophic consequences for the entire region and the world. Therefore, it is important for India and China to find ways to address their differences and to promote stability and collaboration in the region and beyond.

Rise of China as a global power and its growing influence in the region has led to concerns among many countries, including India. The perception that China is seeking to challenge the existing international order and to establish itself as the dominant power in Asia has fuelled concerns among its neighbours.^[24] Under the BRI, China is financing and building infrastructure projects in countries across Asia, including ports, highways, and railways, with the aim of enhancing connectivity and promoting trade. These projects often come with large loans from Chinese banks, which can lead to concerns about debt sustainability and potential for Chinese influence over recipient countries. ^[25]

As a result, India has taken steps to strengthen its military capabilities, improve its infrastructure and develop its economy, in order to counter China's growing influence in the region.

Conclusion

India-China strategic challenge is a complex and evolving relationship, shaped by a mix of competition and rivalry, and with significant implications for regional and global security. Addressing the challenges posed by this relationship will require a nuanced and multi-faceted approach, encompassing political, economic, and strategic dimensions.

While the Chinese declaratory policy continues to emphasise common interests and the necessity of being partners and good neighbours, India’s
growing diplomatic profile, strategic cooperation with major powersand growing military capability is being viewed as a serious strategic
concern and a long-term threat to China. ^[26] Hence, China intends to marginalise India by exploiting border strife and building up neighbouring countries as a politico-military counter. ^[27] One key element, therefore, would be to address the underlying causes of the border dispute and other areas of disagreement between the two nations. This will require sustained dialogue and engagement between the two nations, aimed at finding a mutually acceptable solution.

China is cooperative in trade ties and on certain issues of global commons in the international forums, but competitive for influence in the Indian Ocean, the Persian Gulf, Africa, Central Asia and East Asia. Therefore, the relationship between India and China is marked by a delicate balance, with both nations seeking to advance their national interests while managing differences and preventing conflict. The territorial disputes and border security issues between India and China have the potential to escalate into military conflict, while the economic competition between the two nations has the potential to undermine regional economic cooperation and stability. Hence the relationship is best analysed by studying the sources of conflict and areas of mutual collaboration.

References

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^[3]Abhay Kumar Singh, Book- Future Contours of India-China Rivalry and India’s Options, MP-IDSA
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^{[18] [19]}Sam LaGrone, https://news.usni.org/2022/11/29/pentagon-chinese-navy-to-expand-to-400-ships-by-2025-growth-focused-on-surface-combatants [14], USNI, 29 November 2022 and Demetri Sevastopulo, https://www.ft.com/content/5313cc68-5fc8-4c0b-bdcb-e5c39245ba3a [15], FT, 29 November 2022.
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^[21]Vice Admiral Anup Singh, PVSM, AVSM, NM (Retd), https://chanakyaforum.com/why-india-needs-a-blue-water-navy/ [17], Chanakya Forum, 06 May 2021.
^[22]Abhay Kumar Singh, Book- Future Contours of India-China Rivalry and India’s Options, MP-IDSA.
^[23]Parvaiz Ahmad Thoker and Bawa Singh, https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/48520081.pdf [18], World Affairs: The Journal of International Issues , Vol. 22, No. 3, Autumn - July-September 2018, pp. 82-93.
^[24]Deep Pal, https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/10/13/china-s-influence-in-south-asia-vulnerabilities-and-resilience-in-four-countries-pub-85552 [19], Carnegie Endowment, 13 October 2021.
^[25]James McBride, Noah Berman, and Andrew Chatzky; China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative [20], CFR, 02 February 2023.
^[26]Abhay Kumar Singh, India-China Rivalry: Asymmetric No Longer-An Assessment of China’s Evolving Perceptions of India, MP-IDSA, 2021, pp 67.
^[27]Brig (Dr.) Rajeev Bhutani, Sino-Indian Equation, 2019, pp 8.

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