Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (01-07 May)

Economic

Investment in developing nations may hit 20-year low: World Bank official

Plunging investment in developing countries could lead to lower growth in the long term and exacerbate problems, said Hiroshi Matano, executive vice president at the World Bank Group's Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, in a recent interview. "If the economic slowdown further intensifies, we believe that foreign direct investment into developing countries may fall to its lowest level in 20 years in 2023," Matano told Nikkei. While the total of MIGA's guarantees for the current fiscal year are likely to reach a new record, the situation in sub-Saharan Africa and other poor developing areas remains dire, he warned. Edited excerpts from the interview follow. Q: What are the prospects for direct investment in Africa and other developing areas? A: It is true that the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated considerably. The World Bank has revised its economic growth rate for 2023 downward to 1.7%, leading to decreased investor interest in emerging and developing economies. There is a mountain of other impediments as well. World Bank Group President [David] Malpass said the debt problem must be resolved. Some countries, such as Myanmar and Ethiopia, are vulnerable to political instability. There is also the problem of food and fertilizer shortages, as high inflation has reduced imports. Click here to read... [2]

Almost 258 million people faced acute food insecurity in 2022: UN

Almost 258 million people in 58 countries faced acute food shortages last year due to conflicts, climate change, effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine, according to a United Nations report, a sharp rise from 193 million the previous year. The Global Report on Food Crises, an alliance of humanitarian organisations founded by the UN and the European Union, says people faced starvation and death in seven of those countries: Somalia, Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Haiti, Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen.The report found that the number of people facing acute food insecurity and requiring urgent food aid – 258 million – had increased for the fourth consecutive year, a “stinging indictment of humanity’s failure” to implement UN goals to end world hunger, according to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. “Rising poverty, deepening inequalities, rampant underdevelopment, the climate crisis and natural disasters also contribute to food insecurity,” Guterres said. While the increase last year was due in part to more populations being analysed, the report also found that the severity of the problem increased as well, “highlighting a concerning trend of a deterioration”. Rein Paulsen, director of emergencies and resilience for the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, said an interplay of causes was driving hunger. Click here to read... [3]

Growth in Middle East, Central Asia to slow amid global challenges - IMF

Economic growth in the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia regions will slow in 2023, underlining the need to accelerate structural reforms, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on May 03. Real GDP growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is forecast to fall to 2.9 per cent in 2023, from 5.3 per cent last year, before improving to 3.5 per cent in 2024, the IMF said in its Regional Economic Outlook report. Growth in the Middle East and North Africa region will slow to 3.1 per cent in 2023, from 5.3 per cent a year ago, and to 4.2 per cent in the Caucasus and Central Asian states from 4.8 per cent last year. "Uncertainties are high and there are a number of risks that are impacting the outlook for the region," IMF regional director Jihad Azour told Reuters. "Some risks are global, some are related to the risk of fragmentation, but some of it is due to the fact that a certain number of countries have a high level of debt," he said. The report said that tight monetary and fiscal policies across the region and tight financial conditions "call for accelerating structural reforms to bolster potential growth and enhance resilience."Click here to read... [4]

Banks Are in the Grips of Investor Crisis of Confidence

First Republic Bank’s FRCB 8.52%increase; green up pointing triangle seizure and sale to JPMorgan Chase was supposed to be a cathartic moment for American banks, the denouement of the financial system’s latest crisis of confidence. The relief lasted for barely a day. On May 02, shares of regional banks were plunging, with a handful of them dropping by double-digit percentages. At one point on May 04, the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index was down by 15% from the prior week, though it rallied back on Friday to finish the week down 8%. Why does this matter? Investors, after all, aren’t depositors. A decline in a bank’s share price has no immediate effect on its ability to satisfy its obligations as they come due. And PacWest and Western Alliance, two regional banks that ended a volatile week down 43% and 27%, respectively, reported no unusual deposit activity following First Republic’s fire sale. Economist Benjamin Graham once said that markets can be a weighing machine in the long term, reflecting reality. But in the short term they can be a voting machine, expressing what investors think will happen. And right now, some are voting against regional banks. What happened to First Republic shows that banks are uniquely vulnerable to an investor vote of no confidence. Click here to read... [5]

Top US spy warns that China would seek to exploit a debt default

US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines has warned that China and Russia would probably seek to exploit a failure by Washington to raise the debt ceiling, while the Biden administration says Beijing would “love” to see the chaos of a US default. It is “almost a certainty” that both countries would use such an event for propaganda purposes through “information operations”, using it as evidence that the US political system is dysfunctional, Haines told the Senate Armed Services Committee on May 04. Haines said the intelligence community did not have information to provide an independent assessment, but she said that a default would create “global uncertainty” about the value of the dollar, US leadership and American institutions. Haines’s comments come as President Joe Biden’s administration faces an acrimonious political battle over increasing the US debt limit. The administration has insisted that there will be no debt-limit negotiations with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and fellow Republicans who are demanding that an increase in the borrowing ceiling be tied to cuts in spending. Haines also testified that the continuing war in Ukraine has increased Chinese President Xi Jinping’s leverage over Russian President Vladimir Putin. She said that Putin has likely scaled back his immediate ambitions in Ukraine as Russia’s efforts to make territorial gains have stalled. Click here to read... [6]

China vows to build modern industries to win 'strategic initiative'

China's leaders pledged on May 05 to build a modern industrial system and achieve technological breakthroughs, in an international race to win the "strategic initiative" amid tensions with the United States. China will prioritise the real economy, improve its industrial policies, and build world-class enterprises, state media quoted the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, following a meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping. China will step up its drive to achieve core tech breakthroughs and "grasp the wave of new technological revolutions such as artificial intelligence", state media quoted the commission as saying. "Accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system supported by the real economy is crucial for us to win strategic initiative in future development and international competition," state media said. Washington has moved to ban exports of some advanced chips to China, escalating tensions between the world's two largest economies. China will promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and will not simply exit from low-end industries, according to state media. State media said China will establish a sound birth support policy system, aimed at significantly reducing the cost of having babies, and vigorously develop a universal system of childcare service. "The current population development in China is characterised by a trend of fewer children, aging, and regional population differentiation," state media cited the commission as saying. Click here to read... [7]

G-7 ministers agree to 'five principles' for assessing AI risks

The Group of Seven leading industrialized nations will call for the creation of international standards for assessing the risks associated with generative artificial intelligence at the digital and technology ministers meeting that opened April 29 to promote the technology's prudent development. The idea will be included in a statement to be issued at the April 30 close of the meeting, which is being held in the Japanese city of Takasaki in Gunma prefecture, as the group explores ways to curb the spread of bias and misinformation, infringement of copyrights and other harmful effects due to AI.Participants on April 29 agreed to five principles for the appropriate use of AI and other developing technologies: rule of law, due process, utilizing opportunities for innovation, democracy and respect for human rights. "We were able to share policies for promoting the development and utilization of AI," Takeaki Matsumoto, Japan's minister of internal affairs and communications, said after the meeting. In light of concerns over AI, the G-7 agreed to a plan to establish uniform standards to prepare for its widespread use. The G-7 is seeking international standards for evaluating AI technologies because regulating every use of would inhibit progress of the technology. While respecting regulations set by each country, the aim is to ensure that AI risk assessments do not become internationally disparate. Click here to read... [8]

Fed delivers quarter-point rate hike, hints at pause in tightening

The Federal Reserve on May 03 raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point and signaled it may pause further increases, giving officials time to assess the fallout from recent bank failures, wait on the resolution of a political standoff over the U.S. debt ceiling, and monitor the course of inflation. The move marked a new stage of the U.S. central bank's management of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, with what may be its final rate hike of the current tightening cycle and heightened attention to risks facing the economy. The Fed has now raised rates ten consecutive times since March 2022, pushing its benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.00% to 5.25% range. In an overt shift, the central bank no longer said it "anticipates" further rates will be needed, only that it will watch incoming data to determine if more hikes "may be appropriate." In a change reminiscent of language used when it halted rate hikes in 2006, the Fed said in May 03's unanimous policy statement that "in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate," officials will study how the economy, inflation and financial markets behave in the coming weeks and months. The new language does not guarantee the Fed will hold rates steady at its next policy meeting in June, and the statement noted that "inflation remains elevated," and job gains are still "running at a robust pace." Click here to read... [9]

Japan-South Korea thaw spreads to economy as finance chiefs meet

Economic exchanges between Japan and South Korea are ramping back up amid recent improvements in diplomatic ties, with finance ministers agreeing to resume regular dialogue at their first formal meeting in seven years on May 02. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and South Korean Deputy Prime Minister Choo Kyung-ho, who serves concurrently as economy and finance minister, started the meeting in Incheon with a smile and a handshake. Ties between Japan and South Korea are at a new turning point, Choo said. "Japan and South Korea are important neighbours that will work together to respond to global economic challenges," Suzuki added. The countries have made strides on hot-button issues like wartime labour since South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol took office, and have since agreed to resume regular exchanges between leaders. They now aim to leverage this thaw to restore economic ties that suffered in recent years from tensions and the coronavirus pandemic.For example, the number of South Korean visitors to Japan plunged in the summer 2019 as diplomatic ties hit a nadir. The full-year total fell for the first time in eight years by nearly 30%, to 5.58 million, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization. The following year, COVID-19 began spreading worldwide. Click here to read... [10]

Chevron’s Venezuelan Oil Export Hopes Hit Snag

Chevron’s plans to increase its crude oil exports from Venezuela have hit a snag, with the sanctioned South American country unable to bear the cost of dredging a key oil export inlet. Chevron’s Venezuela hopes include ramping up crude oil exports from the sanctioned country—but in order to do that, Lake Maracaibo needs to be dredged. And Venezuela will not purchase the necessary equipment to do the dredging, according to a letter Venezuela sent to Dutch shipbuilder Royal IHC, citing limited funds. Chevron paid for a measurement of the amount of sediment accumulated at the bottom of the lake—but Chevron could be forced to pay for the dredging as well if it wants to increase its exports. Chevron asked Venezuela to dredge the inlet to prevent ships from running aground as it attempts to fulfill its ambitions of exporting between 400,000 bpd and 500,000 bpd of crude oil out of Venezuela. The U.S.-based company’s current Venezuelan exports stood at 300,000 bpd, according to Bloomberg, but this is already a significant increase from Chevron’s January export rate of 100,000 bpd. Venezuela’s heavy crude oil is prized by Gulf Coast refiners, who, until recently, looked to Russia’s heavy grades to replace it. Last December, it was reported that several refiners were attempting to get their hands on the rare Venezuelan crude oil. Click here to read... [11]

EU import bans for Ukraine grain shock embattled farmers

When Ukrainian farmer MykolaOlytskyy partnered with a Polish grain trader last December thanks to mutual acquaintances, he felt a glimmer of hope. Olytskyy runs an agricultural business in Novolabun, in Ukraine's western region of Khmelnytskyi, where wheat, corn and barley are cultivated. He hoped selling grain to the Polish market would bring financial security. "The deliveries to Poland were the only chance of generating even the slightest profit," Olytskyy told DW. "The Polish partner collected the grain at the border, we earned 6,700 hryvnia (€167; $187) per ton." An agreement signed by Ukraine and Russia last year, mediated by Turkey, on a Black Sea grain corridor has been poorly implemented. Ukrainian grain exports via the sea route have repeatedly come to a standstill. This has caused the price of Ukrainian gain to drop and fluctuate considerably. Large-scale grain deliveries from Ukraine to the European Union only became possible after Russia's invasion of its eastern neighbour. Just over a year ago, Brussels abolished tariffs and import quotas for Ukrainian agricultural products as a sign of solidarity and as an effort to buoy up Ukraine's economy. On April 7, 2023, however, Poland unilaterally imposed import bans on Ukrainian grains after mass protests by farmers there over falling prices, even though trade policy is typically Brussels' prerogative. This was quickly followed by similar bans in Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria. Click here to read... [12]

China gave 190 chip firms US$1.75 billion in subsidies in 2022 as it seeks semiconductor self-sufficiency

The Chinese government doled out more than 12.1 billion yuan (US$1.75 billion) in subsidies to 190 domestically listed semiconductor companies in 2022, industry data shows, as Beijing seeks to counter escalating US sanctions targeting advanced chip-making.The 10 largest recipients received 45 per cent of the payouts, amounting to 5.46 billion yuan, according to a report on May 07 from Chinese media outlet ijiwei, which compiled the data from Wind, a financial data provider. Corporate filings from the top 10 firms confirms the subsidy amounts. The report only covered companies listed in mainland China, meaning either in Shanghai or Shenzhen. Many other unlisted firms have also received government support, including through loans and direct investment. China’s largest foundry operator, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), was also its largest subsidy recipient for the year at 1.95 billion yuan. The only other company to be given more than 1 billion yuan was Sanan Optoelectronics, an LED chip maker based in the south-eastern city of Xiamen, which received 1.03 billion yuan. Shaanxi-based chip packaging company Tianshui Huatian Technology came in third with subsidies of 467.1 million yuan. Among the other top 10 recipients are Wingtech Technology, an Apple supplier that develops and manufactures chips and mobile terminals; Naura Technology, a Beijing-based chip equipment maker and supplier of US-sanctioned Yangtze Memory Technologies Co (YMTC); and Loongson Technology, a flagship CPU designer. Each received subsidies ranging from 100 million yuan to 400 million yuan. Click here to read... [13]

Chinese state-owned firm to build major Sri Lanka port complex

A Chinese state-owned firm said on May 01 it planned to take its investment in Sri Lanka to US$2 billion by building a major logistics hub. Sri Lanka is looking to kick-start its economic recovery after defaulting on its foreign debt last year, when shortages of essentials such as food, fuel and medicines sparked widespread anti-government protests. The investment by the China Merchants Group (CMG) in a large logistics complex at Colombo Port, with an estimated construction cost of US$392 million, is the first major foreign investment in Sri Lanka since the default. The logistics centre project will take CMG’s “accumulated investment in Sri Lanka to … over 2 billion US dollars, making it the largest foreign investment enterprise in the island”, the company said in a statement on May 01. CMG will have a 70 per cent stake in the company set up to build the logistics complex at Colombo, the only deep-sea port between Dubai and Singapore. Describing the project as South Asia’s largest logistics hub, CMG said it expected to complete it by the end of 2025. CMG also manages the port complex at Hambantota on the southern tip of Sri Lanka. That port was considered among the white-elephant projects launched by former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, who ruled the country for a decade until 2015. Click here to read... [14]

Russia to resume yuan purchases – Bloomberg

Russia could restart purchases of foreign currency for its reserves in May as growing energy revenues “stabilize” public finances despite Western efforts to damage the country’s economy, Bloomberg reported on May 02. The Finance Ministry is due to announce the resumption of foreign exchange purchases later this week, the outlet said. Initial volumes are expected to be equivalent to about $200 million in yuan per month. The Chinese currency is viewed as the main asset Russia can use for transactions to refill its $154 billion national wealth fund. “It will be important for the market that the state is starting to accumulate reserves again instead of spending them,” said Natalia Milchakova, an analyst at Freedom Holding Corp. “This may even positively affect the ruble,” she added. Russia halted foreign exchange purchases in late January 2022 and further suspended the program following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. At the beginning of this year, the Bank of Russia resumed operations with foreign currency amid soaring oil and gas revenues. The move was part of a revamped budgetary mechanism designed to shield the economy from the volatility of commodity markets, and transactions are now carried out in yuan. Moscow has slashed yuan sales over the past two months to cover the budget deficit, with sales halving in April compared to February. Click here to read... [15]

EU faces winter gas price surge – Bloomberg

Prices for natural gas in the EU are expected to soar ahead of next winter, putting the bloc at risk of a renewed energy crunch, Bloomberg reported on May 02, citing industry analysts.The cost of gas futures could exceed €100 ($110) per megawatt hour, or over $1,000 per thousand cubic meters, from the current €40 ($44) per megawatt hour, according to Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart, as cited by the agency.“Early winter cold is the scariest thing,” she said in an interview on the sidelines of the Flame gas conference in Amsterdam, adding that prices above €100 were “very realistic.” The expert stressed that weak demand is expected to delay the rally that Goldman Sachs had previously predicted for August. Last August, the cost of EU gas futures hit a record high of €345 ($380) per megawatt hour. However, a mild winter, efforts to reduce consumption, and weak Chinese demand for LNG sent prices lower to their current levels. But experts are uncertain about whether these factors will remain. Complacency among consumers, including industries, power plants and households, risks a market tightening later in 2023, they warn. Analysts at major oil trader Vitol expect the market to remain tight until new supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) get to the market after 2026. The market “is going to be far more vulnerable to risks,” head of short-term LNG trading at Vitol Stuart Sanders said. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

U.S. and Allies Look at Potential China Role in Ending Ukraine War

Some U.S. and European officials said they believe that Ukraine’s planned spring offensive could pave the way for negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow by the end of the year, and that China could help bring Russia to the table. The willingness to encourage negotiations and seek out a role for China in talks represents a shift in Western thinking, particularly in the U.S., which has been highly sceptical of any involvement for Beijing given China’s longstanding support for Moscow. Secretary of State Antony Blinken publicly expressed cautious optimism recently that Beijing could help defuse the conflict. The approach is based on the belief that neither side has the ability to continue fighting indefinitely and that Beijing’s willingness to play a role in international peace talks should be tested, the officials said. Still, they remain uncertain about Russia’s willingness to negotiate a cease-fire under Russian President Vladimir Putin. The interest in negotiations brings Washington in closer alignment with some European countries, which are eager to see the conflict end, or at the very least moderate in intensity, and have been the most intent on discussing some resolution this year. The U.S., the U.K. and other countries have been publicly saying that Ukraine should be supported as long as it takes to defeat Russia. Click here to read... [17]

Blinken hints at China trip this year to restart regular dialogue

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on May 03 said he hoped to make a trip to China sometime in 2023, stressing the need to "re-establish regular lines of communication at all levels and across our government." "We're in a competition with China; there's no secret about that," said Blinken at an event hosted by The Washington Post. "But we have a strong interest in trying to make sure that that competition doesn't veer into conflict." Bilateral tensions have hampered exchanges between senior U.S. and Chinese military officials in recent years, raising concerns of an accidental clash between the countries. Blinken had previously planned to visit China in February, under an agreement reached by U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President XI Jinping during their meeting in November. But he postponed after a suspected Chinese spy balloon was spotted over the U.S. China has pushed back against U.S. claims regarding the balloon, as well as on Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's recent visits to the U.S. No new date has been set for Blinken's trip. In addition to Blinken, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo are also exploring trips to China to jump-start a bilateral economic dialogue. Click here to read... [18]

Kishida spurns constitutional debate on base strike capability

The Kishida administration has dismissed calls for constitutional debate on its decision to give Japan the capability to strike enemy bases, both proponents and opponents of the major policy shift said. At a closed-door government hearing of experts on Feb. 7 last year, Tetsuro Kuroe, who served as administrative vice defense minister until 2017, called for constitutional debate regarding the government’s plans to revise three national security documents. Kuroe has told The Asahi Shimbun that Japan’s basic postwar policy of taking an exclusively defensive posture should be redefined to deal with the worsening security environment. He said the change is necessary to leave no room for criticism that Japan cannot possess the enemy base strike capability.The traditional definition of the policy, based on the pacifist Constitution, says that not only the exercise but also the possession of defence capabilities must be kept to a “minimum required.” Kuroe said he made the proposal out of his conviction that Japan should equip itself with “necessary functions” although it should be restrained in exercising defense capabilities. But his call for constitutional debate went unheeded. A panel of experts met between September and November following a series of hearings over the first seven months of the year, but no constitutional scholars were invited. Click here to read... [19]

Yoon and Kishida seek to transcend historical issues to normalize ties

The leaders of South Korea and Japan tried to look beyond historical disputes over wartime forced labour to achieve their "shared goal" of future-oriented bilateral ties, during a summit in Seoul, May 07. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said his "heart aches" for South Korean victims who were forced to labour for Japanese companies during World War II. Those comments are viewed as Tokyo's response to conciliatory gestures Seoul made earlier to improve bilateral relations. However, Kishida did not offer a direct apology to the victims. Kishida made those remarks after a summit with President Yoon Suk Yeol, where they pledged to normalize ties and establish future-oriented bilateral relations. The prime minister was visiting Seoul in response to Yoon's trip to Tokyo in March, which was the first step in mending relations between the two countries that had deteriorated to one of the lowest levels in decades after South Korea's Supreme Court in 2018 ordered two Japanese companies to compensate Korean victims of wartime forced labour. "When Yoon visited Japan in March, I clearly stated that the Japanese government inherits on the whole the historical perceptions of past governments, including the 1998 Japan-South Korea joint declaration, and this position will remain unwavering in the future," Kishida said during a joint press conference after the summit, referring to the declaration in which then-Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi expressed remorse for the "horrendous damage and pain" Japan's colonial rule inflicted on the Korean people. Click here to read... [20]

Uzbekistan votes 'yes' to new constitution in victory for president

In Uzbekistan's constitutional referendum on April 30, voters overwhelmingly favoured sweeping reforms that promise to strengthen individual rights but also allow the president to potentially stay in power until 2040.The Central Election Commission on May 01 said the constitutional amendments passed with 90.21% of the vote, based on preliminary results. Turnout was reported at 84.54%. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which conducted a "limited" observation mission, said in a news release on May 01 that the vote was "technically well prepared and widely promoted as a move to enhance various rights and freedoms, but it took place in an environment that fell short of genuine political pluralism and competition." The constitutional changes are the next stage in a reform drive for the Central Asian country of around 35 million people. The shift began after President Shavkat Mirziyoyev came to power in 2016 following the death of his authoritarian predecessor, Islam Karimov. On Mirziyoyev's watch, economic reforms have been enacted, political prisoners have been set free and once-widespread forced labour in the cotton sector has come to an end. The constitutional revamp will see around two-thirds of the existing document rewritten, with individual rights given prominence. Public consultations led to more than 60,000 proposals, with around a quarter of the suggestions incorporated into the draft. Click here to read... [21]

Arab League readmits Syria as relations with Assad normalize

Arab League foreign ministers adopted a decision to readmit Syria after more than a decade of suspension on May 07, a spokesperson for the League said, consolidating a regional push to normalise ties with President Bashar al-Assad. The decision was taken at a closed meeting of Arab foreign ministers at the Arab League's headquarters in Cairo, said Gamal Roshdy, spokesman for the Arab League's secretary general. Syria's membership of the Arab League was suspended in 2011 after a bloody crackdown on street protests against Assad that led to a devastating civil war, and many Arab states pulled their envoys out of Damascus. Recently, several Arab states including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, have re-engaged with Syria in high-level visits and meetings, though some, including Qatar, remain opposed to full normalization without a political solution to Syria's conflict. Arab states have been trying to reach consensus on whether to invite Assad to an Arab League summit on May 19 in Riyadh to discuss the pace of normalizing ties and on what terms Syria could be allowed back. Click here to read... [22]

US says it will not normalise relations with Syria’s Assad

The United States will not normalise relations with the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the State Department has said, as many of Washington’s Arab allies re-establish ties with Damascus. The State Department said late on May 04 that top US diplomat Antony Blinken discussed a recent meeting in Amman between Syria and its Arab neighbours during a phone call with his Jordanian counterpart, Ayman Safadi. “Secretary Blinken made clear that the United States will not normalize relations with the Assad regime and does not support others normalizing until there is authentic, UN-facilitated political progress in line with UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2254,” the department said. The 2015 resolution calls for free and fair elections in Syria under UN supervision. The foreign ministers of Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Jordan met for talks in the Jordanian capital on Monday amid a push to bring al-Assad’s government back into the Arab fold. Syria was suspended from the Arab League and ostracised by regional powerbrokers in 2011 after its crackdown on Arab Spring protests, which turned into a protracted war. The conflict has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions. As the Syrian government regained control over large parts of the country – with support from Iran and Russia – some Arab countries began to soften their stance towards Damascus. Click here to read... [23]

U.S. and Philippines to share real-time military intel on China

The U.S. and the Philippines are moving toward real-time sharing of military information and greater coordination to guard against any coercive behaviour by China in the South China Sea. The Pentagon released a fact sheet covering the U.S.-Philippine defence cooperation guidelines May 03 after U.S. President Joe Biden and Philippine counterpart Ferdinand Marcos Jr. adopted them at their meeting in the White House this week. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin hosted Marcos at the Pentagon on Wednesday. The rare visit by a foreign leader to the Department of Defense indicates the urgency and resolve of both sides to increase defence cooperation. "The two leaders underscored their shared desire to deepen bilateral planning and operational cooperation including an increased tempo of combined maritime activities, such as joint patrols, to support the Philippines' lawful exercise of its rights in the South China Sea," according to a readout of the meeting provided by Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder. Ryder stressed in a news briefing May 02 that Washington and Manila are "standing at a transformational moment," adding that Austin and Marcos will discuss "a wide range of security topics." According to the fact sheet, the guidelines are intended to "foster a common understanding of roles, missions and capabilities within the framework of the alliance to face regional and global security challenges." Click here to read... [24]

China's foreign minister makes rare visit to Myanmar border

China's foreign minister called for stability and a crackdown on cross-border criminal activity along the country's border with Myanmar, during an unusual visit to the volatile region on May 02. The 2,129-kilometer (1,323-mile) border runs through densely forested mountains and has long been notorious for drug smuggling into China from the "Golden Triangle" region where the borders of Laos, Myanmar and Thailand meet. The United Nations says the production of opium in Myanmar has flourished since the military seized power in 2021, with the cultivation of poppies up by a third in the past year as eradication efforts have dropped off and the faltering economy has led more people toward the drug trade. During his visit, Foreign Minister Qin Gang said local Communist Party and government departments, the People's Liberation Army, police and civilian bodies should join in "strengthening the border defence system." Qin called for improvements in "maintaining distinct and stable borders, and severely cracking down on cross-border criminal activities." "It is necessary to coordinate border management, border trade development, and bilateral relations," he was quoted as saying in a ministry news release. Fighting between Myanmar's military and ethnic armed groups has also occasionally flared along the border, sending refugees and sometimes mortar fire into China. Click here to read... [25]

China, Pakistan and Afghanistan FMs hold talks in Islamabad

China, Afghanistan and Pakistan have pledged to further strengthen trilateral cooperation on security and counterterrorism at a meeting of the three nations’ foreign ministers in Islamabad. The ministers agreed on May 07 to uphold good relations, deepen political mutual trust, respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and properly address differences and disputes through equal consultation. Since the withdrawal of United States forces in August 2021, Afghanistan has suffered an economic and humanitarian crisis as the Taliban took over and the nation was plunged into international isolation. The Taliban government has since hoped to attract Chinese investment in its reserves of minerals such as copper and lithium. The acting foreign minister of Afghanistan, Amir Khan Muttaqi, who is subject to a travel ban by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) but was given an exemption to visit Islamabad, met his Chinese counterpart, Qin Gang. He is due to have a bilateral meeting with Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari later on May 07. China has invested billions in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), an under-construction network of roads, railways and ports. China’s foreign ministry appears interested in investing in Afghanistan. Just a month ago, it said it “welcomes Afghanistan’s participation in Belt and Road cooperation and supports Afghanistan’s integration into regional economic cooperation and connectivity”. Click here to read... [26]

Rival Sudan factions meet in Saudi Arabia as pressure mounts

Sudan’s warring parties have met for direct talks in Saudi Arabia as mediators pressed for an end to a conflict that has killed hundreds and sent tens of thousands fleeing. Saudi Arabia and the United States welcomed the start of the “pre-negotiation talks” on May 06 in the Saudi coastal city of Jeddah between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and urged the belligerents to actively engage and come to a lasting ceasefire, a joint statement said. Numerous truces have been violated since the conflict broke out in mid-April. The US-Saudi initiative in Jeddah is the first serious attempt to end fighting that has endangered Sudan’s fragile transition following years of unrest and uprisings.Sudan’s Forces of Freedom and Change, a political grouping leading an internationally-backed plan to transfer the country to civilian rule, also welcomed the Jeddah talks. The pro-democracy movement said the discussions would be “a first step” to stop the country’s collapse and called on leaders of the military and the RSF to make a “bold decision” to end the conflict. Confirming his group’s attendance, RSF leader Mohamed HamdanDagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, said he hoped the talks would achieve their intended aim of securing safe passage for civilians. “We remain hopeful that the discussions will achieve their intended goals,” he said. Click here to read... [27]

5 Oil Producing Nations Ask To Join BRICS Alliance

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Algeria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Iran have formally asked to join the BRICS group of nations as it prepares to hold its annual summit in South Africa. In total, 19 nations have expressed interest in joining the emerging-markets bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, according to Anil Sooklal, South Africa’s ambassador to the group. “What will be discussed is the expansion of BRICS and the modalities of how this will happen... Thirteen countries have formally asked to join, and another six have asked informally. We are getting applications to join every day,” the South African official told Bloomberg earlier this week. BRICS will hold its annual summit in Cape Town during the first week of June. The foreign ministers from all five member states have confirmed their attendance. Earlier this month, Bloomberg revealed that BRICS is expected to soon surpass the US-led G7 states in economic growth expectations. Per their analysis, while G7 and BRICS nations each contributed equally to global economic growth in 2020, the western-led bloc’s performance has recently declined. By 2028, the G7 is expected to make up just 27.8 percent of the global economy, while BRICS will make up 35 percent. The estimations came just a few weeks after the Deputy Chairman of Russia’s State Duma, Alexander Babakov, revealed that BRICS is working on developing a “new currency” that will be presented at the organization’s upcoming summit. Click here to read... [28]

US boosts military presence at border

The US military has said it will deploy 1,500 soldiers to the border with Mexico in order to fill “critical capability gaps,” saying additional manpower is needed due to personnel shortfalls at the Customs and Border Protection agency (CBP).The Pentagon announced the decision on May 02, after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin approved a “temporary” deployment to assist CBP efforts at the southwestern border, at the request of the Department of Homeland Security. “For 90 days, these 1,500 military personnel will fill critical capability gaps, such as ground-based detection and monitoring, data entry, and warehouse support, until CBP can address these needs through contracted support,” Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said in a statement, adding that “Military personnel will not directly participate in law enforcement activities.” During a press briefing on May 02, Ryder claimed that the soldiers would arrive at the border by May 10, and that they would be active-duty troops from the Army and Marine Corps. However, he said the military is looking for ways to “replace these deploying forces” with reservists or National Guard personnel after the 90 days are up, in order to “return those active duty forces back to their home stations.” There are currently around 2,500 troops deployed at the border, most from the National Guard, who are assisting CBP with “detection and monitoring and aviation support,” the Pentagon spokesman continued. Click here to read... [29]

Israel claims Iran can make nuclear bombs

Iran already possesses the means to make as many as five nuclear bombs, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant claimed on May 04 during a visit to Athens. Tehran would not stop at creating just one nuclear weapon, the minister insisted, adding that such a development would have grave consequences for the entire Middle East. “Make no mistake — Iran will not be satisfied by a single nuclear bomb. So far, Iran has gained material enriched to 20% and 60% for five nuclear bombs,” Gallant told his Greek counterpart, Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos, the Times of Israel reported. He noted, however, that uranium needs to be enriched to at least 90% purity to make a nuclear weapon. “Iranian progress, and enrichment to 90%, would be a grave mistake on Iran’s part, and could ignite the region,” the defence minister warned. In March, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley predicted that Tehran could produce enough nuclear material for a bomb within weeks. The US general admitted, however, that the Islamic Republic would still need “several months” to make it into a bomb. According to Milley, Washington “remains committed as a matter of policy that Iran will not have a fielded nuclear weapon.” His choice of words sparked concerns in West Jerusalem, as senior Israeli officials questioned whether the US would tolerate the Iranian “nuclear weapons program” as long as no nuclear bomb was mounted on a missile or another delivery system. Click here to read... [30]

US prepares express weapon delivery for Taiwan – Bloomberg

The US is working on a new fast-track defence package for Taiwan, Bloomberg reports, claiming the government will use the Presidential Drawdown Authority to expedite the shipment – an instrument which has been actively used to shore up Kiev, but not Taipei. In an article on May 05 citing anonymous “people familiar with the matter,” Bloomberg said the package worth $500 million would draw on the American military’s existing stockpiles of weapons and equipment. The exact makeup of the shipment is so far unknown, sources told the network. By using the drawdown authority, the US would circumvent the process of contracting and producing arms, which is likely to be time-consuming, the report said. On May 05, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning accused the US of “turning Taiwan into a powder keg,” which, she said, “only spells trouble for our Taiwan compatriots.” Beijing, which considers the island to be an inalienable part of its territory seized by separatists, urged Washington to “stop arms sales” to Taiwan and warned of “consequences.” Mao’s comments came in response to the Taiwan-US Defense Industry Forum held in Taipei earlier in the week. Washington has authorized multiple weapon deals with Taiwan in recent years, including a major sale of F-16 fighter jets. However, quite a few of the deals have yet to come to fruition, resulting in a backlog of sales totaling $19 billion – a figure cited by Congressman Mike Gallagher in February. Click here to read... [31]

Health

WHO says COVID emergency is over. So what does that mean?

The World Health Organization downgraded its assessment of the coronavirus pandemic May 05, saying it no longer qualifies as a global emergency. The action reverses a declaration that was first made Jan. 30, 2020, when the disease had not even been named COVID-19 and when there were no major outbreaks beyond China. A look at what WHO's decision means: Why end the global health emergency? WHO Director-General TedrosAdhanom Ghebreyesus said the pandemic has been "on a downward trend for more than a year, with population immunity increasing from vaccination and infection." That, he said, has allowed most countries "to return to life as we knew it before COVID-19," meaning that the worst part of the pandemic is over. Tedros said that for the past year, WHO and its emergency committee experts have been analyzing COVID-19 data to decide when the time would be right to lower its level of alarm. On May 04, the experts recommended to Tedros that COVID-19 no longer qualified as a global emergency and the WHO chief said he accepted that advice. What are the practical effects? For the average person, nothing. The classification of a health threat as a global emergency is meant to warn political authorities that there is an "extraordinary" event that could constitute a health threat to other countries and requires a coordinated response to contain it. Click here to read... [32]

COVID blamed for sudden rise in fatalities across Japan since 2020

The novel coronavirus pandemic offers the only plausible explanation for a spike in fatalities in Japan, especially in rural areas, since 2020.The Asahi Shimbun set out to explain higher-than-projected death rates over the three-year period based on estimates of deaths by researchers working in conjunction with the health ministry. Researchers regularly make estimates of this kind to gauge the effect of infectious illnesses, such as seasonal flu, as well as natural disasters on the population. The total number of recorded deaths over the past five years is used to estimate the number of deaths for a regular year. The Asahi selected the median in the number of estimated deaths as the reference point to calculate the difference from the actual number of deaths in the three years from 2020. That led to 135,000 more deaths over that period than the estimates. For 2020, there was a shortfall of about 35,000 deaths from the estimate, in part because COVID-19 had not yet spread widely, coupled with a wider use of face masks and a tendency to stay indoors, which led to plummeting numbers of flu epidemic patients. However, there were about 52,000 more deaths than the estimate the following year, while in 2022 there was an excess of 118,000 deaths. For the three-year period, the total number of deaths that prefectural governments said were caused by COVID-19 came to about 57,000. Click here to read... [33]