Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 13 February- 19 February, 2023

Economic

China's U.S. Treasury holdings hit 12-year low on rate hikes, tensions

China's U.S. government bond holdings hit the lowest in over 12 years at the end of December, while its gold trove grew against a backdrop of American interest rate hikes and bilateral tensions. Chinese holdings of Treasury securities fell for the fifth straight month in December to $867 billion, data published Feb 15 by the U.S. Treasury Department shows. The figure fell $173.2 billion, or 17%, in 2022 -- the biggest drop since 2016. China was not the only nation to sell down its Treasury holdings -- all foreign holdings of Treasury securities fell 6% in 2022 -- but its move was large. The decline came as the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates at a rapid pace to curb inflation. The benchmark 10-year yield had risen to nearly 4% at the end of December from around 1.5% a year earlier, and Chinese investors likely trimmed their holdings to avoid losses from a decrease in bond prices. Geopolitical factors also played a role, market watchers said. "Since the Russian invasion [of Ukraine], a move away from Treasuries ... would be an understandable reaction to the political developments," said a strategist at a U.S. asset manager, who sees the Chinese motivation as "wanting to maintain their independence and not be at risk." Click here to read... [2]

Wheat prices surge on Ukraine harvest concerns – media

Wheat prices have soared to two-month highs this week amid fears that Russia’s military operation may jeopardize this year’s planting and harvesting season in Ukraine, several media outlets have reported, citing traders. March futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange closed at over $8.0075 a bushel on Monday, the highest since November 23. Quotes were slightly down on Feb 14 but are still up for the year. Wheat prices initially jumped on Feb 10, with analysts attributing the surge to Russia’s latest missile strikes in Ukraine. Traders warn that infrastructure damage from the missiles or a potential worsening of the conflict would jeopardize Black Sea shipments, which are already a third below the previous season. “Wheat has been the leader linked to increased tension in Ukraine, which could slow the Ukrainian exports and the planting for the 2023 crop and it could also lead to increased sanctions against Russia,” Mark Polowy, a senior account executive at Archer Financial Services, told Reuters. Concerns about the supply of wheat to the global market emerged right after the start of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine just under a year ago. The two countries together are responsible for over a quarter of the global supply of grains. Click here to read... [3]

US dollar’s Bull Run set to end as China, Europe and Japan stabilise

The US dollar had a historic bull run in 2022. As the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates rapidly in a bid to combat inflation, the dollar strengthened by around 10 per cent from the start of the year to a high in October 2022 against a broad range of currencies. Other major central banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB) also turned hawkish amid a global surge in inflation, but the Fed remained at the vanguard of the central bank raising cycle. In addition, the US dollar surge last year was supported by the relative resilience of the US economy in the face of the energy crisis in Europe and a lingering drag from the Covid-19 pandemic in Asia. However, the US dollar has trended weaker after reaching its peak in October 2022. The nominal broad dollar index fell around 6 per cent between October 2022 and January 2023. Many of last year’s drivers of US dollar strength appear to be reversing. The recent improvement in the global growth outlook has been mainly led by major economies outside the United States. The rapid reopening of China is likely to lead to a strong economic recovery this year after Covid-19 infections appeared to peak in late December. Click here to read... [4]

China provinces top list of world’s most climate-vulnerable regions--data

China is home to 16 of the 20 global regions most vulnerable to climate change, according to data published on Feb 20, with some of the world’s most important manufacturing hubs at risk from rising water levels and extreme weather.Climate risk specialists XDI assessed more than 2,600 regions worldwide, using climate models together with weather and environmental data to assess the economic damage that temperature rises could wreak by 2050. The study is based on a 3-degree Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) increase in temperatures by the end of the century, under a scenario drawn up by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The data showed that some of the engine rooms of the global economy face catastrophic hazards such as rising sea levels, river flooding and wildfires, which could also depress property prices and deter investment, XDI said. “We’re already feeling the significant impacts of weather events around the world, and they will only increase,” XDI Chief Executive Rohan Hamden told reporters. “Finally, we just want to make sure that every investment decision is made in a climate-resilient way.” The industrialized Chinese coastal province of Jiangsu, which accounts for a tenth of China’s GDP, was ranked the world’s most vulnerable territory, followed by neighbouring Shandong and the major steel production base of Hebei. The flood-prone central province of Henan was fourth. Click here to read... [5]

China’s chip sector enters a ‘dark forest’ era

China should reform its funding, training and appraisal systems to push forward semiconductor-related scientific research, according to two top scientists. In a widely circulated article, a Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) academician and chip researcher say China’s chip sector has entered a “dark forest” without access to advanced US chip-making software and coming restrictions on deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography tools made by Japan and the Netherlands. The authors note China has attached great importance to fundamental scientific research in recent years but still faces several challenges. Luo Junwei, a researcher at the CAS Institute of Semiconductors, and Li Shushen, a CAS vice president, wrote in an article published on February 17 that deep reform is needed to improve China’s chip research. “Over the years, all the fundamental research achievements in the global semiconductor and micro-electronics sector have been included in the process design kit (PDK) of the EDA,” they write, referring to the electronic design automation market segment. “As Chinese chip makers could buy and use the PDK in the past, our decision-makers, government officials and industry players tended to think that China could develop its chip sector without fundamental research.” “But since the US turned off the ‘lighthouse,’ we have now entered a dark forest,” they wrote, referring to US blocks on selling advanced chip-making equipment to China. Click here to read... [6]

China’s Newest Weapon to Nab Western Technology—Its Courts

The growing conflict between China and the U.S. extends from computer-chip factories to a suspected spy balloon over American skies. Running through it all is a struggle for technological superiority. China has striven for years to develop cutting-edge technologies, in part through heavy spending on research. Now, according to Western officials and executives, it also has mobilized its legal system to pry technology from other nations. Officials in the U.S. and European Union accuse China of using its courts and patent panels to undermine foreign intellectual-property rights and help Chinese businesses. They say China is focusing such efforts on industries it deems important, including technology, pharmaceuticals and rare-earth minerals. A U.S. manufacturer of X-ray equipment had a decade-old patent invalidated by a Chinese legal panel. A Spanish mobile-antenna designer lost a similar fight in a Shanghai court. Another Chinese court ruled that a Japanese conglomerate broke antitrust law by refusing to license its technology to a Chinese rival. At China’s Communist Party congress in October, when Xi Jinping secured a third term as party leader, he praised the country for becoming a global innovator and pledged to help it prosper further. “We will increase investment in science and technology through diverse channels and strengthen legal protection of intellectual property rights, in order to establish a foundational system for all-around innovation,” he told Chinese lawmakers. Click here to read... [7]

Ford Inks Controversial Battery Deal With Chinese Company

One of the biggest carmakers in the world, Ford, has struck a deal with the world’s biggest EV battery maker, CATL, to license its technology at a new, $3.5-billion battery plant in Michigan. While the deal will allow Ford to take advantage of funds being made available by the federal government for the energy transition, it also goes against a major stipulation in the Inflation Reduction Act that allocates these funds: that they stimulate local production, research, and development. The IRA stipulation about local development will not officially be violated, because Ford will simply license the battery technology of CATL rather than setting up a joint venture with it or buying batteries from it, Reuters’ columnist Katrina Hamlin noted in a commentary on the news. Yet it also shows that hard as the Biden administration might try, it would be quite a challenge to eliminate any dependence on China in the EV area, since China is the clear global leader not only in rare earths processing capacity but battery technology as well. The new Ford battery plant is planned to open in 2026 and will create some 2,500 jobs, according to sources quoted by CNBC. The site in Michigan was picked after Virginia withdrew from the race citing Ford’s relationship with CATL. Click here to read... [8]

Russian nuclear power exports booming

Russian nuclear fuel and technology sales soared last year as imports by EU countries climbed to the highest in three years, Bloomberg reported on Feb 14, citing data compiled by the UK’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Figures sourced from Russia’s customs records show that in 2022 exports of nuclear fuel and technology in the country’s strategic industry surged by over 20%, as the US and its allies shied away from imposing penalties on the nuclear sector. The Russian nuclear industry, which has so far gone unsanctioned despite Kiev’s pleas, is essential for the operation of many power plants in Europe. Russia’s state nuclear firm Rosatom provides about one-fifth of the enriched uranium needed for the 92 reactors in the US. In Europe, utilities that generate power for 100 million people rely on the company. According to the World Nuclear Industry Status Report, of the 53 reactors under construction globally as of mid-2022, 20 were being built by Rosatom, 17 of which are outside Russia. The figures show NATO members including Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia continued to buy nuclear fuel from the sanctioned country last year. These nations are heavily reliant on nuclear know-how from Russia to run the power plants that produce up to half of the electricity they need. Click here to read... [9]

Chinese retirees take to streets to protest health insurance cuts

Hundreds of retirees took to the streets in the Chinese cities of Wuhan and Dalian on Feb 15 to protest cuts to medical benefits, according to residents and social media posts, following widespread demonstrations last year over COVID curbs. In the central city of Wuhan, hundreds of mainly elderly people could be seen outside the city's central Zhongshan Park in video clips posted to social media. One video from Wuhan verified by Reuters showed pushing and shoving between protesters and uniformed security personnel. Reuters could not immediately verify images from Dalian and some others from Wuhan widely shared on social media. The demonstrations come weeks ahead of China's annual parliamentary gathering in early March. The retirees were protesting local reforms including a recent cut to the monthly personal medical benefit allowance for retirees, from 260 yuan ($38) per month to 83 yuan, according to Wuhan residents. It followed a protest over the same issue last week in Wuhan. Some sang songs including the Internationale, which is popular at protests in China. Others held phones aloft and recorded the event. "This money is very little, but to old people it is lifesaving money," said Wuhan resident Zhang Hai, who did not attend Feb 15's protest but said some of his friends did. Click here to read... [10]

Pakistan brain drain accelerates in latest threat to ailing economy

Hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis are leaving for jobs abroad amid the country's financial and security woes -- a brain drain that threatens to further damage the struggling economy. Figures from the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment show that 832,339 Pakistanis went overseas for work in 2022, the most since 2016 and the third-highest tally on record. Saudi Arabia was the most preferred destination, attracting 514,909. Ahmad Jamal, an immigration lawyer in Quetta, said the actual number of people leaving is much larger since the data only covers work visas. He said many categories of emigrants are not included, such as those travelling out on permanent residency visas, student visas and family settlement visas. The dire state of the Pakistani economy offers few reasons to stay. It is on the verge of collapse, with foreign exchange reserves down to $2.9 billion, enough to cover barely three weeks of imports. Inflation hit 27.6% on the year in January. Per capita income stands at $1,658. Last week, talks with the International Monetary Fund for the revival of a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility -- vital for keeping the country afloat -- ended inconclusively. Young Pakistanis, who account for the majority of the population, face bleak prospects. Pakistan's National Human Development Report in 2017 said 64% were younger than 30, while 29% were between the ages of 15 and 29. Click here to read... [11]

China sanctions Lockheed Martin, Raytheon over Taiwan arms sales

China on Feb 16 put Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies on an "unreliable entities list" over arms sales to Taiwan, banning them from imports and exports related to China in its latest sanctions against the two U.S. companies. The measures come amid heightened tensions after the U.S. military shot down what it says was a Chinese spy balloon, and a day after Beijing warned of "countermeasures against relevant U.S. entities that undermine China's sovereignty and security." Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Missiles and Defense, a subsidiary of Raytheon Technologies, are prohibited from "engaging in import and export activities related to China," China's Commerce Ministry said in a statement. Neither company sells defence products to China. Raytheon declined to comment. Lockheed could not be immediately reached for comment. Beijing also banned the firms from further investment in China, barred senior management from entering the country, cancelled residence permits for any staff in China and imposed fines that are double the contracted amounts of their arms sales to Taiwan. It is not clear how China would enforce such fines, which it said must be paid within 15 days. On at least two previous occasions China has announced sanctions against Lockheed and Raytheon, in 2019 and 2020, though Beijing has not explained what those sanctions entailed or how they were enforced. Click here to read... [12]

Turkey and Syria face long road to recovery after earthquakes

More than 10 days after devastating earthquakes shattered towns and cities in southeast Turkey and parts of Syria, rescue operations have dwindled, and the focus has turned to recovery and cleanup. Dubbed “the disaster of the century” by Turkish President RecepTayyip Erdogan, nearly 42,000 people across both countries have been killed, with the numbers expected to rise. The earthquakes were followed by 3,858 aftershocks, according to Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD), and a total of 50,576 buildings have either collapsed or are heavily damaged. Eyup Muhcu, the president of the Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (TMOBB), said on Feb 15 that it would take a “considerable amount of time” to clear the rubble from destroyed buildings. Additionally, “the buildings that were heavily damaged would have to be demolished completely,” he told Al Jazeera. “It’s hard to put a timeframe on how long that would take since 10 provinces were affected, and that depends on the capabilities, organisation, and coordination of the public authorities.” Authorities have so far inspected more than 387,000 buildings, but according to Muhcu, some structures could not be reached due to the sheer destruction. “The public institutions and government ministries were not prepared for this disaster,” he said. Click here to read... [13]

Korea's childbirths hit another fresh low in 2022

The number of babies born in Korea reached yet another fresh low in 2022, data showed Feb 22, with deaths outpacing births for the third consecutive year. A total of 249,000 babies were born last year, falling 4.4 percent from the previous record low in 2021, according to the data from Statistics Korea. The country's total fertility rate, the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime, came to 0.78 in 2022. It also marked the lowest since 1970, when the statistics agency began compiling related data. Last year marked the fifth straight year the rate was below one. Experts believe the rate should be at least 2.1 to keep Korea's population stable at 52 million. Korea has been dogged by a chronic decline in childbirths as many young people delay or give up on having babies in the face of an economic slowdown and high home prices. Reflecting this, the average age of mothers giving birth came to 33.5 in 2022, up 0.2 from a year earlier. Women gave birth to their first child at 33 on average, followed by second and third at 34.2 and 35.6, respectively. The data showed that for every 1,000 Korean women in their late 20s, 24 babies were born in 2022, down 3.5 from a year earlier. Women in their late 30s, on the other hand, held a comparable figure of 44, up 0.5 on-year. Click here to read... [14]

China and Europe team up on prototype satellite test before joint SMILE space mission in 2025

In an unprecedented collaboration, scientists from China and Europe have completed key tests for a joint space mission to be launched on a European rocket in 2025. The solar wind magnetosphere ionosphere link explorer, or SMILE, has been designed and developed jointly by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and the European Space Agency (ESA) since 2015 to create the most powerful tool for studying the Earth’s magnetic environment. This month, a Chinese team travelled to Noordwijk in the Netherlands to work with colleagues at the European Space Research and Technology Centre under the ESA. They tested whether a prototype satellite of the mission – whose parts, including one from Europe, were assembled at the Innovation Academy for Microsatellites in Shanghai and shipped to Europe – could dock with and separate from the European launcher as designed. The tests were deemed successful, and “excellent collaboration was established” between the Chinese and European teams and the rocket company Arianespace, according to Italian astronomer Graziella Branduardi-Raymont, the mission’s co-principal investigator from University College London. It marked the first time a satellite made in China was shipped to the ESA, and for a Chinese team to help assemble and test a satellite at an ESA facility. Click here to read... [15]

Afghan gov't to turn former U.S. military bases into economic zones

The Afghan caretaker administration has decided to change former U.S. military bases into economic zones to bolster economic activities, the state-run Bakhtar news agency reported on Feb 19. The decision has been taken at a meeting of the Economic Commission with Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar on the chair, Bakhtar said in its report, adding that the pilot project would begin from Kabul and Balkh, and expand to other parts of the country. The military bases, after turning into economic zones, would be gradually handed over to the Ministry of Commerce and Industries, Bakhtar reported. The United States and its allies pulled out troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, leaving the military bases behind. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

In meeting, Blinken warns China’s Wang Yi against aiding Russia in Ukraine

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Feb 18 warned top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi of consequences should China provide material support to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying in an interview after the two met that Washington was concerned Beijing was considering supplying weapons to Moscow. The top diplomats of the two superpowers met at an undisclosed location on the sidelines of a global security conference in Munich, just hours after Wang scolded Washington as “hysterical” in a running dispute over the U.S. downing of a suspected Chinese spy balloon. Relations between the two countries have been fraught since Washington said China flew a spy balloon over the continental U.S. before American fighter jets shot it down on President Joe Biden’s orders. The dispute also came at a time when the West is closely watching Beijing’s response to the Ukraine war. In an interview to be aired on Feb 19 morning on NBC News’ “Meet the Press with Chuck Todd,” Blinken said the United States was very concerned that China is considering providing lethal support to Russia and that he made clear to Wang that “would have serious consequences in our relationship.” “There are various kinds of lethal assistance that they are at least contemplating providing, to include weapons,” Blinken said, adding that Washington would soon release more details. Click here to read... [17]

Dogged by Tensions With U.S., China’s Top Diplomat Tries to Assure a Wary Europe

Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, kicks off a weeklong visit to Europe and Russia with a difficult task: Repair fraying relations in the region at a time of heightened tension with the U.S., growing European wariness toward Beijing and concern over China’s partnership with Russia. Mr. Wang met on Feb 15 with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysée Palace, followed by stops in Italy, Hungary and Russia. The trip comes as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stirs deep security worries in Europe—fears that have cast a chill over relations with China in light of Moscow’s close ties with Beijing. The level of skepticism in Europe is lower than that of the U.S., where the arrival of a balloon the Biden administration has called part of an extensive spying effort has fanned anger toward China. But doubts remain. “Wang Yi’s visit will not be a reconciliation,” said Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis. “Europe is not in the mood for love.” Mr. Wang’s stop in Russia underscores the close relationship between the two countries. Russian officials have said Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to visit Moscow, likely after China’s legislative sessions in March. That would be the 40th in-person meeting between Mr. Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Click here to read... [18]

U.S. sends senior Pentagon official on rare trip to Taiwan

The Pentagon's top China official has paid a rare visit to Taiwan amid the crisis in relations between Washington and Beijing over a suspected Chinese spy balloon shot down two weeks ago. Michael Chase, deputy assistant secretary of defence for China, has arrived in Taiwan, according to one of four people who said he would travel to the island. Chase is the first senior U.S. defense official to travel to the island since the 2019 visit of Heino Klinck, deputy assistant secretary for east Asia, who in turn was the most senior Pentagon official to visit Taiwan in four decades. U.S.-China relations have sunk to a new low after the Chinese military flew a large balloon over North America for eight days until an F-22 shot it down off the coast of South Carolina. China says the balloon was a civilian craft doing meteorological research, but the U.S. insists it was being used for surveillance over sensitive military sites, including nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile silos in Montana. President Joe Biden on Feb 16 said he planned to talk to his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to "get to the bottom" of the incident, which has sparked calls in Congress for the U.S. to take a tougher line on Beijing. The Pentagon declined to comment on the trip to Taiwan. Click here to read... [19]

Taiwan to boost military ties with US to curb ‘authoritarian expansionism’

Taiwan will boost military exchanges with the United States to curb “authoritarian expansionism”, President Tsai Ing-wen said on Feb 21 after meeting with visiting US lawmakers. The five-day US congressional visit comes after a top US defence official reportedly made a rare stopover to the self-ruled island while Washington-Beijing tensions flared over alleged Chinese spy balloons. “Taiwan and the United States continue to bolster military exchanges,” Tsai said after convening with the US delegation at her office in Taipei. “Going forward, Taiwan will cooperate even more actively with the United States and other democratic partners to confront such global challenges as authoritarian expansionism and climate change.” Tsai did not provide further details on what the future exchanges might entail. Washington diplomatically recognises Beijing over Taipei, but is also the self-governing island’s most important international benefactor and supports Taipei’s right to decide its own future. Beijing, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has vowed to seize it one day, opposes any official exchanges with the democracy and has reacted with anger to a flurry of trips to the island by US politicians in recent years.Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Feb 21 accused Taiwanese leaders of “provocation”, warning that “any futile separatist conspiracy or scheme relying on foreign forces to undermine cross-strait relations will only backfire and never succeed”. Click here to read... [20]

US auditors headed to Ukraine – WSJ

After sending $110 billion worth of military and financial aid to Ukraine for a year, the US is making plans to send auditors and inspectors to Kiev so they don’t have to rely on second-hand reports, the Wall Street Journal reported on Feb 17 citing Pentagon, State Department and USAID officials. The inspectors-general from the three respective agencies told the outlet that so far, oversight was conducted using staff in Poland and Germany. After going to Kiev last month and meeting Ukrainian officials, they decided to send some of their 177 auditors and investigators into Ukraine itself. The trio met with Ukraine’s prime minister, ministers of defence and finance, and the prosecutor general, Defense Department IG Robert Storch told the Journal, adding that they emphasized the US “expectations for accountability, and also the importance of cooperation with our oversight work.” Diana Shaw, deputy IG at the State Department, said the US has given Ukraine “an incredibly large amount of assistance” in a “very short time” and that “Any fraud, waste, abuse that would divert that funding from its intended purpose risks jeopardizing the continued flow of that assistance.” The US Congress appropriated more than $113 billion for aid to Ukraine in 2022. Click here to read... [21]

Biden pledges US$500 million in new military aid to Ukraine during surprise Kyiv visit

US President Joe Biden on Feb 20 made a trip to Kyiv organised in strict secrecy, promising US$500 million in fresh arms deliveries and "unwavering" American support ahead of the first anniversary of Russia's invasion. Air raid sirens rang out across Kyiv at one point as Biden walked alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during what was the US president's first visit to the country since Russian troops invaded on Feb 24, 2022. "One year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands," Biden said, speaking beside Zelensky at the Ukrainian president's official residence, the Mariinsky Palace. Russian President Vladimir "Putin thought Ukraine was weak and the West was divided. He thought he could outlast us." "He's just been plain wrong," Biden said, adding that "Putin's war of conquest is failing". The visit was organised in conditions of extraordinary secrecy. Biden left Washington in the early hours of Feb 19 in a plane that had been parked discreetly beside a hanger in the dark with shades drawn, and he landed in Poland on Feb 19 evening. He was driven up to the train platform and quickly boarded the 10-hour overnight service to Kyiv, arriving at 8am local time. One pool reporter and one photographer travelled with him, with their phones taken away by agents, and they could only release full details after Biden had completed the return train journey to Poland. Click here to read... [22]

Kiev's treatment of minorities to be investigated – Budapest

The Council of Europe will release a report this summer on Ukraine’s alleged discrimination against ethnic Hungarians and Romanians living on its territory, Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced on Feb 15. Hungarian inhabitants of the Trans-Carpathian region have lost the right to education in their language and have been forcibly drafted into Kiev’s military. In a post on Facebook, Szijjarto said that the Council of Europe’s Venice Commission – which scrutinizes constitutional law and democratic reforms – will give its opinion on the matter in July.“When war broke out next door, we decided not to mention the case of violations of rights against national communities,” Szijjarto wrote. “Unfortunately, in Ukraine, a new law was recently adopted, which further restricts minority rights.” Szijjarto was referring to a law passed in December which mandated that the Ukrainian language be used in most aspects of daily and public life, including in schools. Previous language laws passed by Kiev were criticized by the Venice Commission for failing to safeguard minorities’ linguistic rights, and the latest legislation has been condemned by human rights organizations. Around 156,000 ethnic Hungarians live in Ukraine, most of them in the region of Transcarpathia. Once a part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, this region fell under Soviet control after World War II and remained in Kiev’s hands when the Ukrainian SSR became modern Ukraine after the fall of the USSR. Click here to read... [23]

Blinken warns against seizing Crimea – Politico

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a group of experts that Washington is not “actively encouraging” Ukraine to seize Crimea from Russia, Politico reported on Feb 15. The outlet cited four people familiar with a Zoom call involving the top diplomat, who apparently said that such a move would be “Kiev’s decision alone.” According to the report, the remarks came after a person on the call asked Blinken if the US would help Kiev retake the Black Sea peninsula, which Ukrainian and Western officials consider illegally occupied by Russia. Blinken was said to have replied that this would be “a red line” for Russian President Vladimir Putin and would trigger “a wider Russian response.” Two of the people quoted by Politico said Blinken led them to believe that the US does not consider a potential operation to seize Crimea “a wise move at this time.” However, the diplomat did not say this explicitly, they stressed. Blinken instead said that Washington is focusing on helping Kiev “where the fight is,” according to Politico. Crimea voted in a referendum to split with Ukraine and join Russia shortly after the 2014 Western-backed coup in Kiev. Ukrainian officials have since maintained that the return of the peninsula is their long-term goal. Click here to read... [24]

Russia says will comply with nuclear disarmament treaty despite suspension

Russia will continue to observe limits on the number of nuclear warheads it can deploy under the New START treaty despite a decision to suspend participation in the agreement, Moscow said. President Vladimir Putin announced the freeze during a speech on Feb 21 to both houses of the Russian parliament in which he also repeated accusations the West was seeking to destroy Russia. The lower house Duma will on Feb 22 consider Putin’s draft law on suspending participation in the New START treaty. It is expected to rubber-stamp it. Under the treaty, signed in 2010 and extended until 2026, Moscow and Washington committed to deploying no more than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and a maximum of 700 long-range missiles and bombers. “In order to maintain a sufficient degree of predictability and stability in the sphere of nuclear missiles, Russia intends to adhere to a responsible approach and will continue to strictly observe the quantitative restrictions provided for by the New START treaty within the life cycle of the treaty,” the foreign ministry in Moscow said in a statement. The ministry also said it would continue to notify the United States of planned test launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Click here to read... [25]

Japan, China to hold security talks next week, Japan foreign minister says

Japan and China will hold security talks next week, Japanese foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said after meeting his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Feb 18. The agreement to hold the security talks, the first to be held in four years, came after Hayashi and China's top diplomat Wang Yi spoke ahead of the conference. "It is important for us to have frank discussions precisely because there are a number of pressing matters in our relationship", Hayashi said to reporters, highlighting a territorial spat in the East China Sea and increasing Chinese and Russian military presence around Japanese waters as some of the issues that need to be discussed. The disputed East China Sea islets claimed by both China and Japan have long been a sticking point in bilateral relations. China calls the islands Diaoyu, while Japan calls them Senkaku. Japan and China will hold talks on Feb 21 and Feb 22, according to a statement released by Japan's foreign ministry. Hayashi said he also discussed the identification of surveillance balloons in Japan's skies with his Chinese counterpart, telling Wang that "whatever country the balloons may belong to, entering a foreign country's airspace without permission constitutes an airspace violation".Click here to read... [26]

Japan to order 500 Tomahawk missiles from U.S. in FY 2023

Japan plans to order up to 500 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States in fiscal 2023 to bolster its defences, including the ability to strike menacing enemy bases. Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said on Feb. 14 that the expenses for the required Tomahawks will be covered in the budget proposal submitted to the current Diet session. The government has earmarked 211.3 billion yen ($1.59 billion) in the budget plan for fiscal 2023, which starts in April, to buy Tomahawk missiles. The Defense Ministry aims to deploy them by March 2027. Ministry officials said the costs to upgrade its Aegis-equipped destroyers and other projects for installation of the Tomahawks will come from the budgets for fiscal 2024 and beyond. The ministry also plans to upgrade Type 12 surface-to-ship missiles to give them the capacity to strike enemy bases. The Japanese-made weapon is expected to be deployed in fiscal 2026 with an extended range of 1,000 kilometers. However, the Type 12 project could be delayed. The announced bulk purchase of Tomahawks reflects Tokyo’s aim to ensure a prompt upgrade of the nation’s defences with the proven U.S. weapon. The Tomahawk missile is a precision weapon that can be launched from ships and submarines and can hit targets about 1,610 km away, according to the manufacturer. Click here to read... [27]

U.S., China, other nations urge 'responsible' use of military AI

More than 60 countries including the U.S. and China signed a modest "call to action" on Feb 16 endorsing the responsible use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the military. Human rights experts and academics noted the statement was not legally binding and failed to address concerns like AI-guided drones, 'slaughter-bots' that could kill with no human intervention, or the risk that an AI could escalate a military conflict. However, the statement was a tangible outcome of the first international summit on military AI, co-hosted by the Netherlands and South Korea this week at The Hague. Signatories said they were committed to developing and using military AI in accordance with "international legal obligations and in a way that does not undermine international security, stability and accountability."The conference comes as interest in AI is at all-time highs thanks to the launch of Open AI's Chat GPT programme and as Ukraine has made use of facial recognition and AI-assisted targeting systems in its fight with Russia. Organizers did not invite Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special military operation." Ukraine did not attend. Israel participated in the conference but did not sign the statement. U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control Bonnie Jenkins put forward a U.S. framework for responsible military AI use. Click here to read... [28]

African Union says Israel’s observer status suspended

The African Union has said that Israel’s observer status at the bloc was suspended which is why it was not invited to attend the weekend summit. The news comes after Israeli ambassador Sharon Bar-li was removed from the African Union’s annual summit in Ethiopia on Feb 18 as she attempted to attend using a non-transferable invitation issued only to Israel’s ambassador to the African Union, Aleli Admasu. Video circulating on social media showed guards escorting Bar-li out of the AU assembly hall in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. “The status is suspended until such time as this committee can deliberate … and so we did not invite Israeli officials to our summit,” AU Commission chief Moussa Faki Mahamat told reporters on Feb 19, adding that an investigation was being conducted into Feb 18’s incident. A spokesperson for Israel’s foreign ministry said Bar-li was “an accredited observer with an entry tag”, and accused the AU of being taken hostage by a “small number of extremist states like Algeria and South Africa, which are driven by hatred and controlled by Iran”. The incident highlighted a spat within the pan-African bloc over a unilateral 2021 decision by Mahamat to give Israel observer status, triggering protests by several member states. Israel obtained observer status after two decades of diplomatic efforts. Click here to read... [29]

North Korea Launches ICBM, Raising Tensions in Region

North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, escalating tensions in the region as the U.S. and South Korea prepare for joint military exercises.The missile was fired eastward Feb 18 shortly before 5:30 p.m. local time from the Sunan area in the outskirts of North Korea’s capital city of Pyongyang. It was in the air for a little more than an hour, reaching an altitude of more than 3,500 miles. It travelled a distance of about 560 miles before landing in the sea about 155 miles west of Japan’s northernmost island of Hokkaido, in the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone, according to South Korean and Japanese defence officials. This is an “outrageous act that escalates the country’s provocation against the entire international community,” said Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Based on Feb 18’s flight trajectory, the range of North Korea’s ICBM could exceed about 8,700 miles depending on the weight of the warhead, putting the entire U.S. in the missile’s target range, said Japan’s defense minister, Yasukazu Hamada. The U.S. and South Korea held discussions after the missile launch and reaffirmed their commitment to step up their joint defences against the North, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said. The test was North Korea’s second missile test of the year, with the first coming on Jan. 1, when the country tested a shorter-range missile. Click here to read... [30]

China’s ‘two sessions’ 2023: Communist Party leaders review names for top state, political advisory roles

The top leaders of China’s ruling Communist Party have finalised the line-up for key government, legislative and political advisory positions to be formally endorsed by the national legislature at its annual session next month. Senior leaders also agreed to consider further restructuring of party and state bodies to ensure “better institutions” and “more efficient” management when a key committee meets next week, state news agency Xinhua said. This came as the Politburo, the party’s No 2 decision-making body, met in Beijing on Tuesday to discuss recommendations for candidates to join state institutions and the country’s top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). It was also decided that the second plenary session for the new Central Committee – the party’s top policymaking body – would be held from February 26 to 28. Its first plenum was held on October 23, just after the 20th five-yearly party congress. The candidates and restructuring plan will undergo a final review and approval process at the plenum before being submitted to the National People’s Congress when its annual legislative session opens on March 5. This would mark the last step in the latest five-yearly cycle of political succession in China, which began with a major reshuffle in the top party line-up at the 20th congress. Click here to read... [31]

Health

WHO calls urgent meeting on killer virus

The World Health Organization (WHO) has convened to discuss a new outbreak of a highly infectious virus in Central Africa. The body is looking at several vaccine candidates that could potentially stop the pathogen that causes hemorrhagic fever with a fatality rate of up to 88%. WHO officials held an “urgent” meeting on Feb 14 to review the Marburg virus now spreading in Equatorial Guinea, where at least nine people have lost their lives to the illness, in addition to more than a dozen suspected cases. The agency announced that medical experts and protective gear would be sent to the country, and said samples would be brought to a lab in Senegal to help trace the origin of the new outbreak. “Marburg is highly infectious. Thanks to the rapid and decisive action by the Equatorial Guinean authorities in confirming the disease, emergency response can get to full steam quickly so that we save lives and halt the virus as soon as possible,” Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, WHO regional director for Africa, said. Belonging to the same family of viruses as Ebola, Marburg is considered highly dangerous and is known to cause a form of viral hemorrhagic fever, which leads to bleeding from the nose, mouth, or other body parts. Other symptoms include extreme lethargy, dehydration, nausea, vomiting, sore throat, and abdominal pain. Click here to read... [32]

Infectious diseases a near-term concern in quake-stricken Türkiye, Syria: ECDC

The next two to four weeks may see the emergence and spread of infectious diseases in the quake-stricken areas in Türkiye and Syria, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said on Feb 20. "Food and water-borne diseases, respiratory infections and vaccine-preventable infections are a risk in the upcoming period, with the potential to cause outbreaks, particularly as survivors are moving to temporary shelters," it said in a news release. The ECDC said that "the damaged utility infrastructure, including water and electricity, causing limited access to clean water, inadequate sanitation and hygiene facilities, improper refrigeration and cooking systems may increase the occurrence and transmission of food-and waterborne illnesses."The agency predicted that a surge of cholera cases in the affected areas is a significant possibility in the coming weeks. Other food and/or waterborne diseases, such as hepatitis A, norovirus and rotavirus, can also cause outbreaks in camps. Moreover, the agency said respiratory infections, such as COVID-19, seasonal influenza and other respiratory viruses are "a particular concern" to the very young and the elderly, who are more vulnerable to complications. "Crowding conditions in temporary settlements can increase the risk of transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases, such as measles, varicella, meningitis or poliomyelitis," it said. Click here to read... [33]