Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 02 January - 08 January, 2023

Economic

Ozone layer slowly healing, hole to mend by 2066: UN

Earth's protective ozone layer is slowly but noticeably healing at a pace that would fully mend the hole over Antarctica in about 43 years, a new United Nations report says. A once-every-four-years scientific assessment found recovery in progress, more than 35 years after every nation in the world agreed to stop producing chemicals that chomp on the layer of ozone in Earth's atmosphere that shields the planet from harmful radiation linked to skin cancer, cataracts and crop damage. ''In the upper stratosphere and in the ozone hole we see things getting better,'' said Paul Newman, co-chair of the scientific assessment. The progress is slow, according to the report presented Jan 09 at the American Meteorological Society convention in Denver. The global average amount of ozone 18 miles (30 kilometers) high in the atmosphere won't be back to 1980 pre-thinning levels until about 2040, the report said. And it won't be back to normal in the Arctic until 2045. Antarctica, where it's so thin there's an annual giant gaping hole in the layer, won't be fully fixed until 2066, the report said. Scientists and environmental advocates across the world have long hailed the efforts to heal the ozone hole ― springing out of a 1987 agreement called the Montreal Protocol that banned a class of chemicals often used in refrigerants and aerosols ― as one of the biggest ecological victories for humanity. Click here to read... [2]

World Bank downgrades 2023 global growth forecast to 1.7 pct

Global economic growth is projected to slow to 1.7 percent in 2023, 1.3 percentage points below the forecast made in June last year, marking its third-weakest pace in nearly three decades, the World Bank Group said in its latest Global Economic Prospects released Jan 10. Given such adverse shocks as high inflation, rising interest rates, sluggish investment and the Ukraine crisis, global growth has slowed "to the extent that the global economy is perilously close to falling into recession," the report said. The downgrade reflected "synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation," as well as deteriorating financial conditions, declining confidence and energy supply disruptions, it said. Noting that the adjusted global growth forecast is overshadowed only by the 2009 and 2020 global recessions, the report said in 2024, the global economy is on track to grow by 2.7 percent. More specifically, the report said that growth for advanced economies is projected to slow to 0.5 percent in 2023, 1.7 percentage points below the June forecast. U.S. economic growth forecast for this year has been downgraded by 1.9 percentage points to 0.5 percent, the weakest performance outside of recessions since 1970. The Eurozone economy is projected to grow at 0 percent, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous forecast. Click here to read... [3]

Global food prices surge 14.3 pct in 2022: FAO

Pushed by higher energy and fertilizer prices stemming from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, global food prices were 14.3 percent higher in 2022 than a year earlier, the Rome-based United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Jan 06. In 2022, the FAO's sub-indexes show cereal prices are up by 17.9 percent from 2021, vegetable oil prices are up by 13.9 percent, dairy prices are up by 19.6 percent, meat prices are up by 10.4 percent, and sugar prices are up by 4.7 percent. In December 2022, FAO's Food Price Index fell 1.9 percent than the previous month, registering its ninth consecutive monthly decline. But the index rose so sharply during the first months of the year that it concluded 2022 far above the 2021 average. The decline in December was largely a function of markets adjusting to distribution disruptions, higher prices for transport and lower levels of demand stemming from slower global economic growth. Month-on-month in December, prices for grains and cereals, the largest component in the broad index, were 1.9 percent lower, meat prices were 1.2 percent lower, prices for vegetable oils were down 6.7 percent, dairy prices were 1.1 percent higher, and sugar prices were 2.4 percent higher. The FAO has repeatedly warned that rising food prices threatened global food security, particularly in poor countries. Click here to read... [4]

Why Governments Are Pushing Deeper Into Energy Markets

Governments are stepping into the energy markets in a way the world hasn’t seen in decades, propelled by a tug of war over oil and natural gas and a heightened sense of urgency on energy security. Russia’s war on Ukraine and the resulting turmoil in fossil-fuel markets has been a major factor in the interventionism, prompting countries to shore up supplies, tackle soaring prices and rethink where they get their energy. In Europe, where fuel shortages and price shocks have been particularly acute, Germany and France have moved to nationalize big energy companies that were facing huge losses, while the European Union is rolling out a cap on the price of natural gas. The U.S. has released millions of barrels of oil from its strategic reserves in an attempt to reduce gasoline prices, used emergency powers to bolster the import of solar panels and unleashed a torrent of measures to help create domestic supply chains for clean energy. Last month, the EU and the Group of Seven advanced democracies said they would try to prevent Russian crude oil from selling at a price higher than $60 a barrel. Russia has retaliated by refusing to sell its oil and petroleum products to those countries. Such steps have already exacerbated uncertainty in markets and roiled relations between countries. The trend is likely to intensify in 2023 and beyond, energy experts say. Click here to read... [5]

China to accelerate approval of new coal projects to ensure energy supply

China reiterated its focus on energy security on Jan 04, vowing to ensure the supply of energy and electricity, coordinate resources and accelerate approval of new coal projects, while asking coal enterprises to expand production as peak season approaches. Power generation companies should store more high-quality coal to ensure power generation during peak times, and leading groups should coordinate resources to support affiliated power plants in Southwest and Northeast China to make full use of their capacity, and help fill the gap in local power supply and heating, according to a report from the China Securities Journal on Jan 04, citing information from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. The commission has recently implemented dynamic monitoring at 195 coal mines, 572 coal power plants, 727 hydropower plants, and 96 gas-fired power plants affiliated to state-owned enterprises, and has increased policy support, the report said. China has been deploying both domestic and overseas energy resources to ensure stable supplies for winter heating, while further optimizing the country's energy mix to enhance supply security amid a complex international energy situation.Since the beginning of the winter heating season, the country's supply of coal for power generation has remained at a high level, with the coal inventory at a record high of around 175 million tons, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on November 30. Click here to read... [6]

Biden Administration’s Big Manufacturing Push Could Transform Global Trade

In just over a year, the U.S. has passed three huge budget measures aimed at transforming its domestic economy—by rebuilding infrastructure, accelerating a clean-energy transition, and boosting manufacturing in semiconductors and the automotive industry. Each of these initiatives is focussed on strengthening the U.S. economy and on boosting U.S. competitiveness in the world. But there is another crucial consideration as well: How these three policies are implemented in the months ahead could reshape global trade relations for years to come. If U.S. policy makers use this opportunity to promote domestic industries at the expense of foreign competitors, other governments are likely to respond with their own protectionist policies, leading to a costly breakup of global trade, government officials and trade specialists say. But, these same experts say, if instead the U.S. is more welcoming to products from friendly nations, and works with them to achieve what some call “friend shoring”—shifting production of critical materials to friendly nations, away from adversaries including China and Russia—the countries could continue to enjoy the benefits of trade while strengthening their supply chains, these people say. The roughly $280 billion Chips and Science Act promotes domestic semiconductor research and production. The measure known as the Inflation Reduction Act directs about $369 billion to clean energy and energy-security programs. And much of the $1 trillion infrastructure bill will be spent on boosting the U.S.’s economic competitiveness. Click here to read... [7]

Egypt Plans Spending Cuts as It Faces Economic Crisis

Egypt plans to cut spending after the International Monetary Fund extended hundreds of millions of dollars in an economic bailout package, as the country struggles to pay off debts accumulated from decades-long building boom. Authorities said earlier this week they would delay state projects that required significant U.S. dollars to fund and cut back on travel, training and conferences for officials, according to Egypt’s cabinet. The announcement came after the government agreed to a series of measures as part of an IMF package, including selling billions of U.S. dollars’ worth of state assets to international investors, taking steps to reduce the role of the state and military-owned companies in favour of private businesses in the economy, and shifting to a more flexible currency exchange system, according to the international creditor this week. The IMF said Egypt agreed to reduce its financing needs and cut back on debt but didn’t lay out specific areas for cuts. Egypt is set to receive nearly $3 billion in loans from the IMF over four years, after the Covid-19 pandemic hit tourism and the war in Ukraine pushed up commodity prices, tipping the country into an economic crisis. As investors soured on the economy and pulled out of Egyptian assets, the Egyptian pound plummeted against the U.S. dollar, leaving the country struggling to pay for imports of items such as wheat, electronics and cars. As a result, annual inflation hit 21.3% in December, a five-year high according to the government. Click here to read... [8]

Tackling Bangladesh’s energy inflation woes

Over the past two decades, Bangladesh has steadily improved its citizens’ access to electricity, with rural electrification accounting for a sizable portion of that improvement. Although gas still makes up the majority of the energy used to produce electricity, the nation has taken long strides toward switching to renewable energy sources like solar, wind and hydropower. As of 2020, 96.2% of the population had access to electricity, up from 32% in 2000, while 7.3 million rural residents had access to clean and renewable energy, and 60% of the beneficiaries of these rural electrification projects are women. Despite the fact that the capacity for producing electricity increased by almost 80% from 5 gigawatts in 2009 to 25.5GW in 2022, the plant load factor (PLF), a measure of the ratio of power produced to maximum capacity, decreased to an all-time low of 0.8% because of recent fuel and gas shortages. In order to generate electricity temporarily, the government developed quick rental power plants (QRPPs) in 2009; over the past decade, these plants have significantly boosted electricity production. However, certain clauses in the contracts with the QRPPs and independent power producers (IPPs) mandate paying capacity charges to them even if no power is produced.Early last year, the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) reported daily losses of 190 million taka (US$1.83 million) resulting from idle power plants as the Russia-Ukraine conflict increased supply-side disruptions, driving the price of petroleum in global markets to a new record high of US$100 per barrel. Click here to read... [9]

Taiwan's TSMC sees record quarter but predicts slowing sales

Taiwanese chip giant TSMC reported record fourth-quarter net profits on Jan 12, but also predicted slowing sales for the start of 2023 as a potential recession dampens global demand. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company operates the world's largest silicon wafer factories and produces some of the most advanced microchips used in everything from smartphones and cars to missiles. It is regarded as a global economic bellwether because so many of its chips are in such a wide array of devices. Net profit for the fourth quarter of 2022 hit $9.7 billion (TW$296 billion) compared to $4.2 billion for the same period a year earlier, a new record. But the company predicted first-quarter 2023 sales of just $16.7 billion to $17.5 billion -- figures that would constitute the first revenue decline in four years. "Moving into first quarter 2023, as overall macroeconomic conditions remain weak, we expect our business to be further impacted by continued end market demand softness, and customers' further inventory adjustment," vice president Wendell Huang said in the earnings release report. The global semiconductor industry has been upended both by an ongoing economic slowdown dampening demand and renewed trade frictions between the United States and China. Billions were wiped from companies' valuations worldwide in October after Washington announced new measures to limit China's access to high-end semiconductors with military uses. Click here to read... [10]

North Korean trash offers window into its economy

It is difficult to assess the severity of the hardship the isolated nation is experiencing, but one South Korean scholar is trying to get a better grasp of the situation by studying litter that drifts from the North, including discarded candy wrappers and snack packaging. "This is an ice cream wrapper made in North Korea in September. You can see its quality has improved from the ones I found before," said Kang Dong-wan, a professor of political science at Dong-A University in the southern port city of Busan, holding up a piece of refuse he picked up from a beach on Yeonpyeong Island off South Korea's northwest coast in early December. The QR code on the packet shows it was made in Sariwon, the capital of North Korea's North Hwanghae province. Kang said the material used to make the wrapper is much stronger than was used for similar products he collected in 2021. The production date on the item was etched by machine rather than printed with ink as with the old ones. Most North Korean food processing plants are located in Pyongyang, but the discarded wrapper indicates that the ice cream was made at a well-equipped factory outside the nation's capital. Narrowing the economic gap between Pyongyang and rural areas has been a key policy challenge for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and the discovery of the improved packaging shows his efforts are beginning to bear fruit. Click here to read... [11]

U.S. lawmakers outline next frontiers of China tech competition

Technology competition between the U.S. and China is "all about national security," and more investment in emerging industries is needed for America to keep up with Asia's biggest economy. That was the message from the U.S. senators speaking at a panel at the CES consumer electronics event in Las Vegas on Jan 06, which is being held against a backdrop of U.S.-China tensions over semiconductors and other key tech areas. "This should not be an America versus China issue, but it does mean this technology competition is all about national security," said Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee. "God forbid we ever end up in a conflict. It's not going to look like the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It will be over before it starts, in a way, because of technology competition," he said. Warner was also an early supporter of the CHIPS Act legislation designed to funnel $52 billion into the domestic semiconductor industry. He cited quantum computing, artificial intelligence, advanced engineering, and especially synthetic biology as the next frontier that the U.S. should be investing in to keep up with China. "The promise of biotech has been overpromised and under-delivered," he said, but added that the ability to combine computing with biotech could change that. "We are frankly underinvesting compared to China." The growing presence of government officials at the event -- this year's iteration brought a record number of members of congress, according to organizer CTA -- underscores the growing recognition of the role of technology in national security. Click here to read... [12]

Turkish president vows for turning point for defence industry in 2023

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed on Jan 09 to make 2023 a year of a turning point for the country's indigenous defence industries. "We are determined to make 2023 a turning point in the defence industry along with other fields," Erdogan said at a ceremony for the delivery of six new domestically made Firtina (Storm) howitzers to the Turkish Armed Forces in the north-western Sakarya province. Two more Altay main battle tanks will be handed over to the army for tests before its planned serial production in 2025, Erdogan announced, adding that this number will reach 140 in total. Turkish fighter drone Kizilelma, officially known as the National Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle System, will carry out its flight manoeuver tests in 2023, the president said. Türkiye will get the National Combat Aircraft (MMU) out of the hangar and present it to the public in 2023, he added. All systems of the aircraft are successfully installed and its tests for the flight control system, engine and hydraulic systems are made, Temel Kotil, general manager of Turkish Aerospace Industries, told local Cnn Turk broadcaster on Jan 09. Türkiye started to develop the TF-X or MMU project, its fifth-generation fighter aircraft, in 2011 and accelerated the process after the United States excluded its NATO ally from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program due to Ankara's purchase of Russian S-300 air defense systems. Click here to read... [13]

China retaliates against travel restrictions by suspending short-term visas for Japanese and South Koreans

Beijing has made good on its promise to retaliate against countries that impose entry restrictions on Chinese travellers by suspending the issuance of some visas for South Korean and Japanese citizens. Chinese officials said the suspension was needed to protest against “discriminatory entry restrictions” on its citizens. The move came after several countries adopted pandemic-related curbs on Chinese travellers, such as requiring Covid-19 tests before departure and limiting flights. Some of those measures have also affected Hong Kong. “It is regrettable that a small number of countries still insist on adopting discriminatory entry restrictions against China in disregard of scientific facts and the actual situation of the pandemic in their own countries. China firmly opposes this and will take reciprocal measures,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Jan 10. “We once again call on the relevant countries not to engage in political manipulation, not to have discriminatory practices, and not to affect normal personnel exchanges and cooperation between countries.” The Chinese embassy in South Korea said on Jan 10 that visas for business, tourism, medical treatment, transit and general private affairs would be suspended for South Koreans. The Chinese embassy in Tokyo also said China had suspended issuing some visas to Japanese travellers until further notice. South Korea had earlier suspended issuing short-term visas to Chinese travellers until January 31, blocking tourists from entering the country. Click here to read... [14]

China offers talks on oil exploration deal with Philippines as Presidents Xi Jinping and Ferdinand Marcos meet

Chinese President Xi Jinping has offered to open talks on a joint gas and oil exploration deal with the Philippines, as he pledged to make relations with Manila a diplomatic priority. Meeting Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr on Jan 04, Xi said the two countries should work together to become a stabilising force in the region. It is Marcos’s first visit to China since he succeeded Rodrigo Duterte as president in June, although he and Xi met in Bangkok in November on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. The trip is seen as crucial to China’s efforts to stop a key member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations getting closer to the United States amid the heightened rivalry between Washington and Beijing. Xi played up his personal connections with Marcos, and complimented his father, former President Ferdinand Marcos Snr, who established formal diplomatic ties with China in his presidency. Another former president, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who is now the deputy speaker of the Philippine House, also formed part of the delegation – something Marcos said had helped with the tone of the meeting. “Xi was also very surprised to meet his old friend, president GMA [Macapagal-Arroyo], who accompanied me,” Marcos said in a video statement released to the media after the meeting. “And they had a few minutes of recollecting the meetings that they have had, which I think helped the tone of the meeting.” Click here to read... [15]

Why were Alibaba, Fosun, Blue Moon among 21 private companies going on parade on China’s state TV?

Executives from 21 private-sector Chinese companies touted their confidence in the nation’s economy in an unprecedented programme aired by China’s state broadcaster, an affirmation of their economic role by the ruling Communist Party and evidence of Beijing’s determination to revive private businesses as it makes economic growth its top priority this year. Companies highlighted on The Dialogue, airing in two parts on January 7 and January 14, include tech giants Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com, manufacturers like Fuyao Glass, conglomerate Fosun Group, consumer brand Blue Moon and new energy leader Longi Green Energy Technology. The executives discuss why they are confident in China’s economy and explain what they see as the new driving forces for the world’s second-largest economy. The programme aired on China Central Television (CCTV) Channel 2 and also received promotion on the broadcaster’s social-media channels. The positive coverage on Channel 2, which is regularly viewed by 1.1 billion people, is particularly important as the confidence of private-sector entrepreneurs has taken a hit after regulatory crackdowns in the technology, education and property sectors, as well as the swift policy changes, lockdowns and restrictions of the past three years. The show comes after the combined wealth of China’s 100 richest people plummeted 39 per cent to US$907.1 billion from a year earlier in 2022 according to Forbes. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

China adopts mild tone to smooth way for Xi visit to U.S.

China's leaders have kicked off 2023 with a milder tone in their messaging, which analysts say could be an attempt to lay the groundwork for a potential visit by President Xi Jinping to the U.S. in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meeting. In an opinion piece for The Washington Post on Jan 04, new Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang argued that "The planet's future depends on a stable China-U.S. relationship." Citing his 17 months as China's ambassador to the U.S., Qin wrote about his fond memories of driving a John Deere tractor in Iowa, visiting a corn farm in Missouri and witnessing huge stacks of China-bound containers at the ports of Boston and Long Beach. "I leave the United States more convinced that the door to China-U.S. relations will remain open and cannot be closed," he wrote. The soft tone was in line with President Xi Jinping's New Year's message that was broadcast on Dec. 31. Speaking about Taiwan, Xi avoided using the word "reunification" -- which he mentioned the year before. "The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are members of one and the same family," he said. "I sincerely hope that our compatriots on both sides of the Strait will work together with a unity of purpose to jointly foster lasting prosperity of the Chinese nation." Zhu Jianrong, a professor at Toyo Gakuen University in Tokyo, said that Xi's words on Taiwan were "completely different," from years past. Click here to read... [17]

US military urged to act faster on interlinked warfare system as China catches up

The United States must speed up the building of its interlinked warfare system as China pursues its own version to counter the US platform, American media reported its defence officials as saying. The so-called Chinese Multi-Domain Precision Warfare (MDPW) was mentioned by the US Department of Defence in its annual China Military Power Report last November. The MDPW aims to align all Chinese forces “from cyber to space”, US military website C4ISRNET.com reported last week. US officials say the effort is “fuelled by a need to counter” the Pentagon’s Joint All-Domain Command and Control initiative (JADC2), it added. The People’s Liberation Army first tested the MDPW in 2021 to interlink command and control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance to quickly coordinate firepower and expose foreign weaknesses, according to the Pentagon report in November. The PLA sees “systems destruction warfare as the next way of war”, C4ISRNET quoted an anonymous senior US defence official as saying last year. “Basically, it’s a way that they’re thinking about looking across domains to identify vulnerabilities in an adversary’s operational system and then to exploit those to cause its collapse,” the official was quoted as saying. China has for years pursued a more informatised military. Click here to read... [18]

US looks to deter China by sprinkling missile-armed marines across Japanese islands

The United States wants to disperse its marines throughout Japan’s Okinawa islands by 2026, arming them with missiles and lighter gear to deter China’s military, according to reports. The US has already told Japan about the reorganisation, which it will announce after a two-plus-two meeting in Washington on Jan 04 between Japan’s ministers of defence and foreign affairs and their US counterparts, the Yomiuri newspaper reported. Officials at Japan’s defence ministry were unavailable for comment. A foreign ministry official declined to comment on the report, but said Japan and the US “will discuss matters regarding issues on the US Forces Japan, including the realignment of the US Forces Japan”. The creation of the new units, called Marine Littoral Regiments, is part of a major reorganisation of the US Marine Corps outlined by its commandant, General David Berger, in 2020 in his Force Design 2030 paper. At the time Berger said he wanted those units to work closely with Japan’s Self-Defence Forces to prevent easy access to the Pacific for China’s military.Under the littoral regiment concept, the marines are cutting aircraft numbers, and dumping most of their cannon artillery and heavy armour in favour of smaller “dispersed” forces equipped with missiles and drones that can operate in contested areas. Click here to read... [19]

Britain and Japan to sign major defence pact as UK expands focus on Indo-Pacific

Britain and Japan are expected to sign a major defence pact on Jan 11 that will make it easier for the two nations to engage in joint military exercises and deploy troops to each other’s countries. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida are expected to sign a so-called reciprocal access agreement at a ceremony at the Tower of London on Jan 11, following an agreement in principle reached between the countries in May. The pact will go before Japan’s Diet and Britain’s Parliament in the coming weeks.“In this increasingly competitive world, it is more important than ever that democratic societies continue to stand shoulder to shoulder as we navigate the unprecedented global challenges of our time,” Sunak said in comments ahead of the ceremony. Britain is the first European country to reach such an agreement with Japan, and British officials have described it as the most important defence pact between the two nations since 1902. Japan has a security treaty with the United States that allows American troops to be stationed there, as well as a similar reciprocal access agreement reached with Australia in January 2021. The agreement is the latest in a series of cooperative security efforts between the two countries. Click here to read... [20]

Biden, Kishida to hold 1st official meet at White House on Jan. 13

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will make his first official White House visit on Jan. 13 to discuss the international security environment with U.S. President Joe Biden. The two leaders are expected to discuss a host of issues, including climate change, critical technologies, North Korea’s ballistic missile programs, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the situation in the Taiwan Strait. “It will be a very important summit,” Kishida said during a Jan. 4 news conference. The Japanese government, which plans a massive defence buildup in the years to come, revised three key national security documents in late December to bolster its defensive posture. Kishida said the summit will be an opportunity to “demonstrate at home and abroad the further strengthening of the Japan-U.S. alliance” and to “establish closer cooperation to realize a free and open Indo-Pacific.” “President Biden will reiterate his full support for Japan’s recently released National Security Strategy, its presidency of the G-7, and its term as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council,” the White House said in a Jan. 3 statement detailing the summit schedule. It added that the two leaders “will celebrate the unprecedented strength of the U.S.-Japan Alliance and will set the course for their partnership in the year ahead.” Kishida is scheduled to depart on Jan. 9 and tour France, Italy, Great Britain and Canada before visiting the White House. Kishida said he hopes to demonstrate strong leadership as the host of the Group of Seven Summit in Hiroshima in May. Click here to read... [21]

Japan and Europe draw closer over shared security concerns

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is discussing security cooperation with European counterparts during his Group of Seven tour, a further sign of how shared concern about Russia and China is breaking down old geographical divisions. Kishida explained Japan's recently revised national security strategy in a meeting here Jan 10 with Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni. They agreed to elevate the countries' relationship to a strategic partnership and to hold consultations between foreign policy and defence officials. The meeting came on the second stop of a tour of fellow G-7 countries, which Kishida aims to use to bring Asian security issues into focus for the bloc ahead of this May's summit in Hiroshima, while also dealing with the war in Ukraine on Europe's doorstep. Meloni and Kishida expressed high hopes for plans to develop a next-generation fighter jet together with the U.K. -- Japan's first major joint defence development project with non-U.S. partners. The three countries are also working toward closer intelligence sharing and exchanges of defence personnel. Kishida and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak are expected to discuss further three-way cooperation when they meet Jan 11. On Jan 09, Kishida and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed to run joint defence exercises and affirmed plans to hold a "two-plus-two" meeting of top diplomatic and defence officials in the first half of this year. They also pledged closer cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Click here to read... [22]

McCarthy elected House speaker in rowdy post-midnight vote

Republican Kevin McCarthy was elected House speaker on a historic post-midnight 15th ballot early Jan 07, overcoming holdouts from his own ranks and floor tensions that boiled over after a chaotic week that tested the new GOP majority’s ability to govern. “My father always told me, it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish,” McCarthy told cheering fellow Republicans. Eager to confront President Joe Biden and the Democrats, he promised subpoenas and investigations. “Now the hard work begins," the California Republican declared. He credited former President Donald Trump for standing with him and for making late calls “helping get those final votes.” Republicans roared in celebration when his victory was announced, chanting “USA! USA!”. Finally elected, McCarthy took the oath of office, and the House was finally able to swear in newly elected lawmakers who had been waiting all week for the chamber to formally open and the 2023-24 session to begin. After four days of gruelling ballots, McCarthy flipped more than a dozen conservative holdouts to become supporters, including the chairman of the chamber’s Freedom Caucus. The night's stunning turn of events came after McCarthy agreed to many of the detractors’ demands — including the reinstatement of a longstanding House rule that would allow any single member to call a vote to oust him from office. Click here to read... [23]

Qin Gang heads to Africa for first trip as Chinese foreign minister

Qin Gang headed to Africa on Jan 09, making his first overseas trip as China’s new foreign minister to a region where Beijing and Washington are vying for influence. The former ambassador to the United States will visit Ethiopia, Gabon, Angola, Benin and Egypt on the week-long trip, according to foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin. The trip aimed to “deepen the China-Africa comprehensive strategic and cooperative partnership and boost friendly cooperation”, Wang said at a regular press briefing in Beijing. He said Qin would visit the African Union Headquarters in Ethiopia and meet Ahmed Aboul Gheit, secretary general of the Arab League, in Egypt. It has been a long-standing tradition for Chinese foreign ministers to visit Africa at the start of the year in a bid to underline Beijing’s commitment to the region. Qin’s visit follows the first China-Arab States Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia last month, at which President Xi Jinping stressed Beijing’s economic commitments to Middle Eastern and North African countries. Dylan Loh, an assistant professor in foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said Qin could bring “fresh impetus” to ties with the continent and he expected Beijing to continue outcompeting the US in the region. In recent years, China has extended its influence in Africa by not only building infrastructure but also providing military support and internet services. Click here to read... [24]

UN Security Council welcomes new members; 2 are first-timers

Ecuador, Japan, Malta, Mozambique and Switzerland got a formal welcome into the U.N. Security Council on Jan 03, taking the two-year seats they won unopposed in June. In a tradition that Kazakhstan started in 2018, the five countries' ambassadors installed their national flags Tuesday alongside those of other members outside the council chambers. Mozambican Ambassador Pedro Comissário Afonso of Mozambique called it “a historic date” and Swiss Ambassador Pascale Baeriswyl said she felt “a deep sense of humility and responsibility” as their countries marked their first-ever terms on U.N.'s most powerful body. Malta joined for a second time, Ecuador a fourth and Japan a record 12th. China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States are permanent, veto-wielding members of the group. Its 10 other members are elected by the 193-nation General Assembly for staggered, two-year terms. They're allocated by global regions. To many countries, winning a council seat is considered a signature diplomatic accomplishment that can raise a nation's global profile and afford small countries a bigger voice than they might otherwise have in the major international peace and security issues of the day. The council deploys peacekeeping missions, can approve sanctions and speaks out — sometimes — on conflicts and flashpoints, while also surveying such thematic issues as terrorism and arms control. Click here to read... [25]

Bolsonaro supporters invade Brazil's Congress, Supreme Court

Supporters of Brazil's far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro on Jan 08 invaded the country's Congress, presidential palace and Supreme Court, in a grim echo of the U.S. Capitol invasion two years ago by fans of former President Donald Trump. Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who defeated Bolsonaro in the most fraught election in a generation last year, announced a federal security intervention in Brasilia lasting until Jan. 31 after capital security forces initially were overwhelmed by the invaders. In a press conference, he blamed Bolsonaro and complained about a lack of security in the capital, saying authorities had allowed "fascists" and "fanatics" to wreak havoc. "These vandals, who we could call fanatical Nazis, fanatical Stalinists ... fanatical fascists, did what has never been done in the history of this country," said Lula, who was on an official trip to Sao Paulo state. "All these people who did this will be found, and they will be punished." The sight of thousands of yellow-and-green-clad protesters running riot in the capital capped months of tension following the Oct. 30 vote. Bolsonaro, an acolyte of Trump's who has yet to concede defeat, peddled the false claim that Brazil's electronic voting system was prone to fraud, spawning a violent movement of election deniers.Around 6.30 p.m. local time, some three hours after the initial reports of the invasion, security forces managed to retake the three buildings, Globo News reported. TV images showed dozens of rioters being led away in handcuffs. Click here to read... [26]

Turkey says relations with China have soured over Uyghur issue

Turkey has seen a dent in its relationship with China, its top diplomat has said, attributing the deterioration to Ankara's determination not to extradite Turkic Uyghur dissidents to China. While some have dismissed the statement as an election stance to show that the government is determined to defend fellow Turkic Muslims, the sensitive topic has the potential to create a new rupture between Beijing and Ankara. "It is true that there is a slowdown in relations with China," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters at his end-of-year news conference on Dec. 29 in Ankara. "But this is stemming from China," he added, noting that Beijing constantly requests the extradition of Uyghurs, even some who are Turkish citizens. "We give none of them," he insisted, saying that social media rumours of Turkey extraditing Uyghur dissidents to China or deporting to third countries that are more willing to extradite them to China are "all lies." The Uyghurs of China's westernmost Xinjiang autonomous region share ethnic, religious and linguistic ties with people in Turkey, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan. Turkey is thought to house the largest Uyghur diaspora outside Central Asia, at roughly 50,000. "From the Balkans to Uyghur Turks, Crimean Tatars, Iraqi and Syrian Turkmens, to the Turks of western Thrace to Meskhetian Turks (in Georgia), we have been on the side of our kinsmen," Cavusoglu said at the news conference. Click here to read... [27]

China, Turkmenistan elevate ties to comprehensive strategic partnership

Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with visiting Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov in Beijing on Jan 06, during which the two heads of state announced the elevation of China-Turkmenistan relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership and underlined key aspects for further expansion of cooperation. The elevation marks a new milestone in bilateral relations, fully demonstrating the long tradition of friendship and both sides' high hopes for its future development, observers said. From the joint statement issued after the top leaders' meeting, observers saw great momentum for the two countries to diversify and deepen cooperation beyond energy, innovate communication and cooperation mechanisms and jointly safeguard regional peace, stability and development. Prior to the two leaders' talks at the Great Hall of the People, 21 cannon shots were fired at Tian'anmen Square as a salute to welcome Serdar Berdimuhamedov, according to the Xinhua News Agency. Xi emphasized that the two sides should support each other on issues concerning their core interests and respect each other's pursuit of a development path suited to their own national conditions. It is important for the two countries to synergize their development strategies at a faster pace, make full use of such mechanisms as the China-Turkmenistan Cooperation Committee, and continue to expand the breadth and depth of cooperation, in order to create underpinnings for bilateral relations with tangible cooperation outcomes. Click here to read... [28]

Iran regime divided on how to tackle protests: analysts

Iran's Islamic clerical regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say. "The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver. "In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said. The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach. But a reminder of the hardline tack came Jan 07 when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest. Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck. The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the Islamic regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah. Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead. Click here to read... [29]

Taiwan missiles at the mercy of China supply chains

In an ironic and game-changing twist, Beijing may be maintaining the missiles Taiwan relies upon to deter a potential China invasion and assault. This week, South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Taiwan had sent a critical component of its Hsiung Feng III supersonic anti-ship missile to Qingdao in China for repairs. The report identifies the component in question as a theodolite, a precision instrument used to measure angles in horizontal and vertical planes that play a crucial role in missile launches. Taiwan’s National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST) purchased theodolite in 2021 from Swiss company Leica and recently sent it back to the manufacturer for repairs. The source notes that the theodolite’s memory cards were removed and that NCSIST asked the agent involved to send the component to Switzerland. However, the source notes that upon return it was discovered that the theodolite had been sent to Qingdao, with Leica saying that its maintenance center for Asia is in that city, hence the component was sent there for the requested repairs. Concerned about a conflict of interests, NCSIST performed checks on the theodolite to ensure China had not installed any malware, the SCMP report said. It also stated that, in the aftermath of the incident, NCSIST is discussing measures to prevent sensitive equipment from being shipped to China for repairs and maintenance for national security concerns. Click here to read... [30]

Saudi Arabia Signals It Could Provide Pakistan an $11 Billion Lifeline

Saudi Arabia said Jan 10 that it was considering providing up to $11 billion to Pakistan, a potential lifeline to a country facing default. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar in recent months have said they might also offer help to Pakistan, with potential loans and investments from Gulf nations now totalling at least $22 billion after the latest announcement from Riyadh. Gulf countries have said they could extend a similar level of support to Egypt, which is also struggling economically. The support from Saudi Arabia could strengthen Pakistan’s hand in negotiating a restart to a stalled bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Islamabad has so far been unwilling to agree to the IMF’s terms for a deal, which include raising electricity and gasoline prices and increasing taxes. The country’s foreign-currency reserves are fast running out, with financial markets hoping that the IMF programme can be put back on track within days. Pakistan has only around $4.5 billion in official foreign-currency reserves, financial analysts estimate. In January and February this year it is due to repay debt of $6.4 billion, according to figures from the central bank. By December, it must repay a further $12.8 billion, according to the central bank. The news followed a visit by Pakistan’s new army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, to Saudi Arabia, where he met Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Click here to read... [31]

Health

‘Pandemic potential’: bird flu outbreaks fuelling chance of human spillover

Multiple waves of avian influenza have left a trail of devastation across the globe, leading to the deaths and culling of more than 300 million chickens, ducks and geese and an unknown number of wild birds between 2005 and 2021. Today, with parts of Europe and North America in the midst of the worst outbreak on record, a global cohort of researchers is keeping cautious watch amid concerns about the impact the disease could have on humans. “There is concern about it having pandemic potential,” says Wendy Blay Puryear, a molecular virologist at Tufts University. “Before Covid was on anybody’s radar, this was the one that we were all watching very closely.” The virus is currently considered a low risk to humans, she says. “But anything that has the ability to replicate and evolve rapidly, and anything that has that ability to infect a lot of different hosts is kind of on borrowed time.” Much of the focus of experts is on H5N1, a highly pathogenic avian influenza that has fuelled, in part, the surge in cases around the world. First identified at a goose farm in Guangdong, China in 1996, the virus has turned up in at least 63 species of wild birds and has shown itself capable of infecting mammals such as bobcats, harbour seals and bears. Click here to read... [32]

Chinese officials say Covid peak has passed in many places but aren’t so open about death toll

In the past two days, one local government after another has announced it has already passed the peak of Covid-19 infections, and estimated daily new case numbers would start to decline. Given its transmissibility, it is not surprising the virus swept through the population in less than a month after China relaxed Covid restrictions. Chinese state media said earlier the basic reproduction number (R0) of the Omicron strains circulating in China was between 10 and 18, meaning without intervention a positive case could infect 10 to 18 people. A Xinhua article published on Jan 08 quoted Xu Wenbo, head of the China CDC’s National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, as saying the Covid R0 in China reached 21 – even more transmissible than measles, which supposedly has the highest R0. However, reaching the peak so quickly is not good news. Overseas experts have long urged Beijing to devise an exit strategy, especially as figures from other places, including Hong Kong, are available as a reference. An exit strategy aims to flatten the curve, allowing the virus to sweep across the population more slowly to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The survival rate could be much higher if the sick, especially the elderly, get sufficient care. But that hinges on the available capacity of the healthcare system. Click here to read... [33]