Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 12 December - 18 December, 2022

Economic

China’s Bei Dou outpaces GPS to become top navigation service provider

China's Bei Dou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) has become the top guidance service provider for domestic Gaode Map, according to a statement released by the Beijing Institute of Space Science and Technology Information on Dec 14. Based on the average number of satellites called by domestic navigation apps for each positioning, Bei Dou satellites have been called the most, 30 percent more than the second-ranked GPS, the China Media Group (CMG) reported. Gaode Map has used Bei Dou satellites to make more than 210 billion positioning calls each day. The combination of BDS and map navigation is providing better services to the public, read the statement. Map apps users can check the number of Bei Dou satellites currently offering service in real time during navigation, including each one's code, azimuth angle, height angle, frequency, signal strength and other factors.Although the news only became public on Dec 14, the BDS has actually long surpassed GPS in serving domestic map apps, Liu Dingding, a Beijing-based veteran market analyst, told the Global Times.Another domestic map giant, Baidu Maps, announced an official switch to the Bei Dou system on September 30, with daily positioning uses exceeding 100 billion for the first time. Bei Dou playing a dominant role in the domestic navigation sector is of great significance. Click here to read... [2]

Goldman Sachs Expects A Bumper Year For Commodities In 2023

Supply shortages and insufficient investment in new supply will result in a bumper year for commodities in 2023, Goldman Sachs says, expecting the S&P GSCI commodity index to post a 43% return next year. Commodities are set to be the best-performing asset class in 2023, the bank’s strategists said in a note. “From a fundamental perspective, the setup for most commodities next year is more bullish than it has been at any point since we first highlighted the super-cycle in October 2020,” Jeffrey Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, wrote, as carried by The Australian Financial Review. The first quarter of 2023 could be more underwhelming than the rest of the year due to the expected slowdown in economies, but the low levels of investment in oil, gas, and key metals will continue to underpin what Goldman has called a new super cycle in commodities. The drop in Brent Crude to the low $80s is likely temporary, according to the Wall Street bank, which says that oil market participants could be too pessimistic about China’s demand. Key metals necessary for the energy transition are also set for a bull run amid expected shortages in the coming years, Goldman and industry giants say. Click here to read... [3]

Türkiye allows passage of oil tankers linked to Russian price cap

Türkiye said Dec 13 that it has cleared a queue of oil tankers waiting to pass the Bosporus and Dardanelle straits as the insurance dispute related to a Western oil price cap on Russian crude is being solved. A total of 22 of the 26 crude oil tankers waiting to pass the Turkish straits delivered the appropriate insurance confirmation letters, and the passage of 19 of them has been completed, Türkiye's maritime authority said on Dec 13.Only four ships are waiting to provide confirmation letters, including those that have just arrived in the Bosporus, the authority said in a statement. There are no tankers loaded with crude oil waiting for the appropriate insurance confirmation letter in the Marmara and Aegean Seas, it added. Since Dec. 1, Türkiye has started to seek confirmation from the insurance companies that the crude oil tankers to pass through the Turkish Straits are fully insured. Türkiye stopped several tankers carrying crude oil from entering Turkish waters, saying that the Protection and Indemnity (P&I) insurance of these ships was invalid due to the European Union's sanctions. Click here to read... [4]

Putin plans more gas sales to China, e-platform for European prices

President Vladimir Putin said on Dec 15 that Russia would increase gas supplies to "the East", particularly China, and set prices for sales to Europe using an electronic platform. Moscow is looking to boost gas sales to countries such as China and Turkey as the Ukraine conflict sours trade with the West but building the infrastructure could take years. In October, Putin floated the idea of setting up a "gas hub" in Turkey following explosions that damaged Russia's Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea and halted its direct gas sales to Germany."Among the key growing consumers of Russian gas are our neighbours, including Turkey ... We plan to set up a gas hub in coming years," Putin told a televised meeting with officials."But if we are talking about setting up an electronic platform, then this can be done within the next few months. And it is there, to a large extent, that we will determine the final price for our European consumers, because what they have done on their platforms is madness."Putin has criticized Europe for choosing spot pricing mechanisms for gas instead of long-term contracts, which used to be the backbone of gas exports by Russia's Gazprom and give the Kremlin-controlled company more certainty.Putin did not give any details of the proposed platform. Click here to read... [5]

EU agrees sanctions relief for Russian businessmen – EUobserver

The European Union will provide sanctions relief to Russian businessmen in charge of fertilizer and chemicals companies, the EUobserver newspaper reported on Dec 15, citing diplomatic sources. According to the report, the last-minute agreement followed 11th-hour ambassadors' talks on the sidelines of an EU summit in Brussels. It concerns Euro Chem founder Andrey Melnichenko (and his wife Aleksandra), Phos Agro’s CEO Andrey Guryev, Acron Group’s major shareholder Vyacheslav Kantor, Uralchem owner Dmitry Mazepin, as well as Rusagro founder Vadim Moshkovich. They are all currently subjects of existing EU asset freezes and visa bans. Under Dec 15's deal, individual EU countries will reportedly be able to unfreeze the businessmen’s money if it is “strictly necessary” to expedite shipments of food and fertilizer, especially to Africa.However, EU member states will need to “consult” the EU Commission before they can go ahead, the report says. “While the six Russians will still be the likely beneficiaries of any derogations, their names will not explicitly be referenced in a new EU fertilizer white-list, as in initial EU proposals,” EU observer reports. The agreement comes as a wider EU deal on the ninth round of anti-Russia sanctions was announced on Dec 16. Lithuania and Poland had reportedly threatened to delay the entire scheme if they were forced to take part in an EU-wide unfreezing of the fertilizer tycoons’ fortunes. Click here to read... [6]

Germany spending $500 billion to ‘keep the lights on’ – media

Germany has reportedly allocated nearly $500 billion to shore up its energy supplies and “keep the lights on” since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began last February, but the spending binge might not be enough to weather the crisis. The estimated total cost reflects the “cumulative scale” of energy bailouts and other schemes that Berlin has employed amid surging oil and natural gas prices and the loss of imports from Russia, Reuters reported on Dec 15. The outlet called the various subsidies an “energy bazooka” – equating to $5,400 per resident in Germany, 12% of GDP and an estimated $1.6 billion per day since the conflict in Eastern Europe began – adding that still more spending may be needed. “How severe the crisis will be and how long it will last greatly depends on how the energy crisis will develop,” Michael Gromling, head of macroeconomic research at the German Economic Institute, told Reuters. The national economy as a whole is facing a huge loss of wealth.” The economic effects of the conflict stem largely from anti-Russia sanctions imposed by the US, Germany and other NATO members. However, as Reuters noted, Europe’s biggest economy now finds itself “at the mercy” of the weather. “Energy rationing is a risk in the event of a long cold spell this winter, Germany’s first in half a century without Russian gas,” the outlet pointed out. Click here to read... [7]

Ukraine declares energy emergency

Ukraine’s state-owned energy giant Ukrenergo declared a state of emergency on Dec 16, amid reports of a new wave of Russian missile strikes against the country’s critical infrastructure. The operator reported that it had registered electricity consumption plummeting by more than 50% across the country, with the situation constituting a “system breakdown.” An air raid alert was announced for all parts of Ukraine on Dec 16 morning, as local media and authorities reported explosions in various cities and regions, including in the capital, Kiev. The Mayor of eastern Ukrainian city Kharkov, Igor Terekhov, said that “colossal” infrastructural damage had been inflicted by the strikes. The attack has “primarily affected the energy system,” the official claimed in a Telegram post.A similar account was provided by the Mayor of the southern Ukrainian city of Krivoy Rog, Alexander Vikul, who confirmed “several” missile strikes in that region. An “energy infrastructure” site has been “destroyed” by the attack, Vikul said in a Telegram post, without revealing the exact nature of the affected site. Ukraine’s largest private energy operator, DTEK, has also reported an attack on one of its sites, which ended up “seriously damaged” and disconnected from the grid. The site has been repeatedly subjected to missile attacks before, the company noted. Click here to read... [8]

Apple said to start MacBook production at Foxconn’s Vietnam plant by mid-2023 in move to diversify supply chain outside China

Apple is reportedly relocating some production of MacBooks to Vietnam, a move that has been planned since 2020, with the initial batch of its popular laptop computers expected to roll out from the Southeast Asian country as early as May next year. Foxconn Technology Group, the world’s largest electronics manufacturing services provider, has been tapped by the US technology giant to assemble its MacBooks in Vietnam, according to a report on Dec 20 by Nikkei Asia Review. Before this move, the MacBook remained the only major Apple product that was solely manufactured in mainland China. It has taken longer to move MacBook assembly lines outside China owing to the product’s complex supply chain, the report said. In November 2020, Taiwan-based Foxconn, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry, was reportedly planning to move some iPad and MacBook assembly to Vietnam from China at the request of Apple because of the escalating trade war between Beijing and Washington. Foxconn had earlier announced a US$270 million investment to set up a new subsidiary in Vietnam. The new MacBook assembly lines are located at Foxconn’s plant in Vietnam’s north-eastern Bac Giang province, situated 50 kilometres to the east of the country’s capital Hanoi. As of June, Foxconn employed about 60,000 people in Vietnam, which is now the company’s largest manufacturing base outside China. Click here to read... [9]

Europe rejects Chinese chip investments aimed at EV market

Chinese semiconductor companies looking to expand through acquisitions in Europe face an increasingly chilly reception from regulators wary of state-driven investment.The continent had been an attractive destination for Chinese players seeking to gain a foothold in supply chains in a leading market for electric vehicles. Direct investment in Europe by Chinese companies rebounded 34% in 2021 to 10.6 billion euros ($11.2 billion at current rates), with auto-related deals accounting for nearly a quarter, according to Germany's Mercator Institute for China Studies. But a number of recent deals have been stymied by governments taking a harder line toward Beijing. German Economic Affairs Minister Robert Habeck cited the need to safeguard "technological and economic sovereignty" last month when Berlin vetoed the sale of a semiconductor plant in Dortmund to Sai Micro Electronics. The facility operated by Elmos Semiconductor produces 350-nanometer chips -- far from the field's leading edge. Germany had planned to approve the acquisition before changing its decision just before the end of the screening deadline. Sai, a midsize sensor maker, had hoped to add automotive semiconductor capacity with the Elmos deal. It has said it plans to continue pursuing the business. Berlin has also blocked a Chinese company from investing in local chipmaking equipment company ERS Electronic. Click here to read... [10]

Pilot project in Shanghai to combine yuan/overseas currencies accounts into one

The Shanghai branch of the People's Bank of China (PBC), China's central bank, has launched a pilot project in the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (FTZ) to allow firms to combine yuan and overseas currencies accounts into one, according to media reports on Dec 12. It's the latest example of domestic cities carrying out such reforms in what experts said would be beneficial for enhancing account management efficiency and attracting overseas capital. A total of 242 business outlets from five financial institutions, including the Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, in the FTZ have participated in the project, according to Shanghai-based news portal Shanghai Observer. With the reform, companies in the Shanghai FTZ no longer need to set up different accounts for receiving or paying different currencies. The project is based on the yuan unit bank settlement account system and supports the settlement of multiple currencies, both local and overseas ones. Officials will strengthen the supervision and monitoring of local and foreign currency bank settlement accounts and implement coordinated supervision of those accounts. Dong Dengxin, director of the Finance and Securities Institute of the Wuhan University of Science and Technology, said that overseas and yuan currency accounts were strictly separated in the past for fear of risks such as foreign currency shortages and capital outflows, but these are no longer problems in China. Click here to read... [11]

China agrees to form global sovereign debt 'roundtable': IMF chief

Chinese officials have agreed to form a global sovereign debt "roundtable" that would include a wide variety of stakeholders, including private sector creditors, International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Dec 15. Georgieva told an event hosted by the IMF that she was feeling "a bit more optimistic" about the prospects for dealing with major debt issues facing low- and middle-income countries after high-level meetings with Chinese authorities last week. The IMF chief said last week she had a "fruitful exchange" with her Chinese counterparts on the need to accelerate debt relief for countries like Zambia and Sri Lanka, adding that she saw "space for a platform for more systematic engagement on debt issues, where China can play an active role. "On Dec 15, Georgieva said she had a "very constructive engagement" with Chinese leaders on the debt issue during her meetings after repeated calls for reforms to accelerate debt treatments under the Group of 20 common frameworks and expand it to include middle-income countries. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other Western officials have expressed mounting frustration about what they see as foot-dragging by China, now the world's largest sovereign creditor, in providing relief under the G-20 framework. China has argued that private creditors and multilateral development banks should be required to accept debt "haircuts" to make the process fair. Click here to read... [12]

Green hydrogen booms in Asia as companies rush into projects

The race to establish green hydrogen production bases in the Asia-Pacific region is heating up, with Western and regional companies cooperating on massive projects to produce what many see as a next-generation power source. Danish multinational Orsted, the world's largest offshore wind power company, is considering entering the market, as are major Western oil companies.BP has become the largest shareholder in the Asian Renewable Energy Hub, a huge Australian project, having made a 40.5% investment. With plans to produce up to 1.6 million tonnes of green hydrogen per year, the British multinational aims to acquire a 10% share of the world market. American multinational Chevron is collaborating with Indonesian oilcompany Pertamina and Keppel Corporation, a government-affiliated Singapore conglomerate, to investigate green hydrogen production using electricity obtained from geothermal power in Southeast Asia. It plans to produce 80,000 to 160,000 tonnes per year in the future. Hydrogen is used for petroleum refining and other purposes, but its use for power generation is expected to increase as the global decarbonization push gains momentum. In Asia, where manufacturing industries are concentrated, demand for hydrogen in the steelmaking and automobile industries is already rapidly increasing. China, the world's largest hydrogen consumer, is aiming to take the lead in green hydrogen production. Large-scale projects are being launched, including the construction of a 20,000-tonne-a-year manufacturing plant by state-owned oil company Sinopec. Click here to read... [13]

It’s official: The BOJ now owns more than half of Japan’s bonds

For the first time ever, the Bank of Japan holds just over half of all government-issued bonds, data released by the central bank on Dec. 19 reveals.Analysts have expressed growing alarm about the steady increase in the BOJ's share of bonds over the past decade, which has been an extremely unusual development for a central bank of a major economy. They have pointed out that although the central bank is supposed to be an independent institution, its monetary policy has become effectively integrated into the government’s fiscal policy.The bank said as of the end of September, it owned 536 trillion yen ($3.93 trillion) of the government’s outstanding bond balance of 1,066 trillion yen. The share, now 50.26 percent, is up more than four-fold from the 11.48 percent it owned in 2013, after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office. The bank began buying up massive amounts of bonds after its monetary easing policy started in April 2013 under Haruhiko Kuroda, a former senior official with the Finance Ministry, who took the helm as the BOJ governor with Abe's backing. Its outstanding bond holdings have continued to balloon since it stuck to its guns on its monetary easing policy even as its foreign counterparts began raising interest rates this spring to fight inflation. Click here to read... [14]

U.S. Delays Key Step for EV Subsidy Program After Foreign Pushback

The Biden administration on Dec 19 delayed proposing detailed rules for new tax incentives for electric vehicles, following strong pushback from European and Asian allies that the subsidy program discriminated against their companies. The Treasury Department said details on the battery-sourcing requirements that electric vehicles must meet to qualify for up to $7,500 in tax credit will be released in March, instead of by the end of this year as earlier planned. The department said, however, it will release “information on the anticipated direction” of the battery requirements before year-end to help manufacturers prepare to identify vehicles eligible for the tax credit. It didn’t specify what information would be made available then. The climate bill recently passed by the Senate could knock thousands of dollars off the sticker price of electric vehicles, but it’s also redefining which cars are eligible. The EV tax incentives, part of the Inflation Reduction Act that President Biden signed into law in August, are designed to accelerate a transition to cleaner vehicles. To qualify for the full $7,500 in tax credit, vehicles must go through their final assembly in North America, a requirement that disqualifies many electric vehicles from non-U.S. car makers since they are typically assembled overseas. Click here to read... [15]

Fairer investment rules will be a boost for developing economies

Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Dec 16 substantially concluded the text negotiations on Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD), the first negotiation topic set up and actively led by China in the WTO. It means there are "only steps away from concluding the first investment negotiation in the WTO and at a global level," according to China's Ambassador to the WTO Li Chenggang, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Dec 17. More than 110 WTO members signed and participated in the negotiation of the IFD, which shows that investment facilitation remains the consensus of most economies around the world and that promoting development through opening-up and cooperation remains the mainstream of the global economic development. An important change in globalization is that global sustainable development, including the development of developed economies, cannot be separated from the development of developing countries. In April 2017, China and a group of developing and least-developed WTO members launched an informal dialogue on investment facilitation, Xinhua reported, adding that the IFD agreement will encourage developing countries to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) and create more job opportunities. The past few years saw developing countries, particularly Asian ones, attract increasing amounts of FDI. Yet, the chances of that upswing being interrupted are rising as a combination of pandemic and geopolitical factors have led to global economic slowdown and growing recession fears. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

9 Chinese warships spotted in East China Sea ahead of week-long joint drills with Russia

China and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the East China Sea starting later this week, according to Russian media reports. A detachment of Russia’s Pacific Fleet had left the far eastern port of Vladivostok for the “Maritime Cooperation 2022” exercise with China from December 21 to 27, Sputnik News quoted the Ministry of Defence in Moscow as saying on Dec 19. The drills were to strengthen mutual naval cooperation as well as maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, a ministry statement said. “The Russian fleet at the exercise will be represented by [the] Pacific Fleet flagship, the missile cruiser Varyag, the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov, and [two] corvettes,” the ministry said. At least nine Chinese navy warships had earlier entered the western Pacific through various routes, according to the Japanese Defence Ministry. These included the aircraft carrier Liaoning and Type 055 guided-missile destroyer Lhasa, Tokyo said in statements over the weekend. It is not certain whether all nine will take part in the coming drills with Russia, but this year’s mobilisation appears to be larger than that for the last one. The Liaoning was spotted transiting from the East China Sea to the western Pacific Ocean through the Miyako Strait, between Japan’s Miyako and Okinawa islands, Dec 16. It was escorted by the Type 055 destroyer 103 Anshan, Type 052D destroyer Chengdu, Type 054A frigate Zaozhuang, and the Type 901 supply ship Hulunhu. Click here to read... [17]

Japanese FM eyes visit to China amid tense ties overshadowed by ‘aggressive defense strategy’

Japan's foreign minister is reportedly eyeing his first visit to China in about three years, which Chinese observers believe will be a good sign for managing the differences on major and sensitive topics, including the Diaoyu Islands issue and Taiwan question. But considering Japan's recent provocations, including calling China a "challenge" in its defense strategy, they remain cautious over the prospect of bilateral relations. On Dec 14, Japanese media outlet NHK learned that arrangements are being made for Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi to travel to Beijing late this month to meet with Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The development came after Japan's ruling coalition on Dec 12 agreed on a National Security Strategy update that calls China an "unprecedented strategic challenge," laying the groundwork for bolstering the nation's defense capabilities, Nikkei reported. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito party reached an agreement on Dec 12 on the draft revisions of three security documents of "National Security Strategy," "National Defense Strategy" and "Defense Force Preparedness Plan." The 2013 version of Japan's security strategy describes China's actions as an "issue of concern," while in this draft revision, China is labelled as an unprecedented "strategic challenge." It was also written in the draft that Japan will possess the capability to launch counter-strikes against facilities such as missile-firing sites and other enemy targets. Click here to read... [18]

U.S. to send officials to Taiwan for 2 years starting next fall

The U.S. plans to send government employees to Taiwan for two-year stints through a new fellowship program starting next fall, seeking to encourage closer bilateral cooperation as China ramps up pressure on Taipei. Fellows will spend their first year learning Mandarin Chinese and other relevant subjects, followed by a year working with a government agency or parliamentary office. The program, under the heading of the Taiwan Fellowship Act, is included in this year's National Defense Authorization Act, which sets military funding levels for the fiscal year ending September 2023. The U.S. has sent government employees to Taiwan for months at a time, but longer-term programs like this are rare, a congressional source said.Executive Director Richard Pearson of the Western Pacific Fellowship Project, a non-profit that is expected to help manage the program, discussed the plans with Nikkei.If the NDAA passes this month or soon after, the organization is "in a position to launch the program in early 2023 and to welcome the first class of fellows to Taiwan to begin language training in September 2023, but appropriate preparation needs to begin now," Pearson said. Applicants will be recruited from a broad range of agencies related to economic and security issues, as well as the armed forces, but not intelligence services, according to Pearson. Click here to read... [19]

Iran Protests Create Lasting Challenge to Government, Security Officials Say

Western and Middle East security officials have concluded that a three-month-old Iranian protest movement represents a lasting drive for change that will challenge the foundations of the Islamic Republic but isn’t an immediate threat to the government in Tehran. The security officials said the protest movement’s durability was surprising, given how quickly the Iranian government put down demonstrations in 2009, 2017 and 2019. Protests erupted in September after the death of a young woman detained for allegedly violating Iran’s female dress code and quickly transformed into demands for the end of the Islamic system that has ruled the country for 43 years. In Israel, which is engaged in a long-running conflict with Iran, security officials have closely watched their archenemy struggle with the demonstrations. Israeli officials said they believe the unrest is likely to continue because protesters are focused fully on human rights and freedoms, rather than on economic anxieties. It is notable, the Israeli officials said, that the protesters have called for the end of the rule of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and not just for changes to the system. They said the dissenting voices of women, especially those from Mr. Khamenei’s family, including his sister, have had an outsize impact. “The regime has been shaken to its core,” one of the Israeli officials said. “Voices inside the regime understand things need to be done.” The Israeli officials emphasized that they couldn’t predict how and in what time frame events would unfold. Click here to read... [20]

North Korea Launches Two Missiles, Adding to a Historic Year of Weapons Testing

North Korea launched two ballistic missiles off its east coast on Dec 18, adding to what has already been a historic year of weapons activity. The medium-range missiles flew roughly 310 miles and hit altitudes of about 340 miles, before splashing into the waters between Japan and the Korean Peninsula, according to Toshiro Ino, Japan’s vice defence minister. Mr. Ino noted the unprecedented frequency of Pyongyang’s provocations, adding they pose a threat regionally and to the international community. The launch helped evaluate the performance of components for a North Korean military-reconnaissance satellite, set to be completed by April 2023, Pyongyang’s state media said in a Dec 19 report. The “final-stage” test simulated a space environment, state media said, evaluating the performance of various video and photo cameras, control devices and batteries. North Korea has no space-based surveillance tools and has listed a spy satellite as a key pursuit. In prior years, the United Nations Security Council has condemned Pyongyang’s satellite launches, viewing them as ballistic-missile tests aimed at improving the country’s nuclear program. The Kim Jong Un regime has conducted more than 30 rounds of weapons tests in 2022—more than it has ever done in a single year by a wide margin. The activity has featured the country’s first long-range weapons test since 2017, a major provocation in lobbing a missile over Japan and new breakthroughs such as hypersonic technology. Click here to read... [21]

Pakistan-Afghanistan ties fray as Taliban forces shell civilians

Pakistan's relations with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan are deteriorating fast, after deadly attacks by Kabul's forces in a disputed border area. On Dec 15, Pakistani media reported that shelling by Afghan troops had killed at least one and injured over a dozen residents near the border in Chaman, about 100 kilometers northwest of Quetta in Pakistan's Balochistan province. This came after similar shelling Dec 11 killed at least seven civilians in the same area. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan's defence minister, said in parliament that eight or nine Afghan soldiers were killed when Pakistan's forces retaliated over Dec 11's attack. This was not confirmed by the Afghan side. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif this week condemned the violence and tweeted that "the Afghan interim government should ensure that such incidents are not repeated" -- a request that had little effect, judging from Dec 15's renewed shelling. Experts say Islamabad -- which is gripped by political and economic crises as well as rising insurgencies, including by the Pakistani branch of the Taliban -- is so far limiting its response to avoid escalating the conflict.The hostilities kicked off when Afghan forces intervened as Pakistani troops carried out repairs near the border, according to reports. Analysts said the Taliban's decision to target Pakistan's civilian population reflects the fighters' deeply ingrained guerrilla mindset. Click here to read... [22]

Turkmenistan Is the Center Of A Geopolitical Tug Of War

Since gaining independence in 1991, Turkmenistan has attracted only sporadic attention due to its extreme level of isolation from the outside world, which rivals that of North Korea. As a result of this posturing, developments within the country fly under most radars. Ashgabat remains resolute in this position as it faces high levels of poverty and the threat of an Islamist insurgency from Afghanistan, which serve to spark fears that almost any change in the system might destabilize the situation. This is most likely because of Ashgabat’s much-ballyhooed policy of strict neutrality, a principle enshrined in that Central Asian country’s constitution that has kept it from joining either Moscow-led organizations, such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), or Ankara-led ones, such as the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). But now all this seem likely to change, as Turkmenistan is becoming the object of intense geopolitical competition between outside powers, East and West, which want the country to become more closely linked to them, and Moscow, which hopes to maintain Turkmenistan’s neutrality to block that from happening. With a new president this year—Serdar Berdimuhamedov replaced his father Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov in March 2022—Turkmenistan itself has become more active internationally. Click here to read... [23]

‘Another go at Kyiv’: Ukraine expecting new Russian offensive early 2023

Ukrainian defence chiefs predicted Russia will launch a new offensive early next year that could include a second attempt to take the capital Kyiv, as Western allies stepped up their support with additional funding and military training.Moscow’s new offensive could happen as soon as January, President Volodymyr Zelensky, General Valery Zaluzhny and General Oleksandr Syrskiy were quoted as saying in interviews with The Economist magazine on Dec 15. The push could be launched from the eastern Donbas area, the south or neighbouring Belarus, and could include another ground assault on Kyiv, which Moscow failed to capture early in the invasion, the officials said. “The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv,” Zaluzhny was quoted as saying.Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in remarks published in The Guardian on Dec 15 that evidence was mounting that Russia planned a broad new offensive. He speculated this could occur in February when half of the 300,000 troops conscripted by Russia in October to support the war would complete training. “The second part of the mobilisation, 150,000 approximately … do a minimum of three months to prepare. It means they are trying to start the next wave of the offensive probably in February, like last year. That’s their plan,” Reznikov told The Guardian. Click here to read... [24]

Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework adopted at COP15

A UN deal aimed at reversing biodiversity loss and setting the world on a path of recovery has been adopted here early Dec 19 at the UN biodiversity conference, COP15. COP15, formally known as the 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, is expected to conclude later on Dec 19 after nearly two weeks of negotiation. The deal is officially known as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. All parties have agreed on key issues, including goals and targets, resource mobilization and Digital Sequence Information, or GSI, under the framework. China holds the presidency of COP15. It held the phase-one meeting in Kunming, capital of southwest China's Yunnan Province, in 2021. The second phase of COP15 in Montreal, Canada, continued the theme of "Ecological Civilization: Building a Shared Future for All Life on Earth." Click here to read... [25]

China invests $144 billion in water conservancy projects in 2022, setting new record

As of November 2022, China has invested more than 1 trillion yuan ($143.69 billion) in water conservancy construction across the country, representing a year-on-year increase of 33 percent, making it the largest annual capital investment since the People's Republic of China was established in 1949, the Ministry of Water Resources (MRW) said on Dec 14. With a total of 40,312 projects this year, China's water conservancy construction now accounts for 2.36 million jobs, of whom 1.96 million come from rural areas, while the sector buildup in many cases also help boost local tourism revenues. Water conservancy infrastructure plays an important role in securing China's grain output. During the heat wave this summer, about 3,500 improved irrigated areas along the Yangtze River reduced the impact of severe drought and secured a bumper autumn grain harvest by irrigating 170 million mu (11.33 million hectares) in planting area, the state broadcaster CCTV reported on Dec 14. MWR has overseen 505 improvement projects covering mid- and large-scale irrigated areas, which are estimated to have added 3.7 million mu of new irrigated farmland. As of early December, total investment volume of irrigated area improvement reached 35.3 billion Yuan. The MRW has been enhancing water supply in rural areas with total investment of 91.8 billion yuan as of early December, creating 332,000 jobs and benefitting 74.49 million rural laborers. Click here to read... [26]

Stronger support urged for Iraq to maintain stability, achieve comprehensive development

Participants attending the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership on Dec 20 called for stronger support for Iraq to help it maintain security and stability, and achieve comprehensive development.The conference, which was held in the Jordanian town of Sweimeh by the Dead Sea shore, was attended by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani and French President Emmanuel Macron, as well as leaders and officials from Arab states, the United Nations, Arab League, Gulf Cooperation Council, Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and European Union. In the conference's final declaration, participants stressed the need for more support for Iraq in the fields of energy, water, electrical connectivity, food and health security, transportation, infrastructure projects and climate protection.Reiterating their condemnation of extremism and terrorism in all forms, the participants also renewed their support for Iraq's efforts to combat terrorism and achieve comprehensive development and economic integration in various sectors. At the conference's opening on Dec 20, King Abdullah II of Jordan called for increased cooperation with Iraq to help the country continue its advance toward security, stability and prosperity.The king called for increased regional cooperation with Iraq to ensure a continued supply of energy and commodities, while stressing the need to address the climate change impacts at the regional level, said a statement by the Jordanian Royal Hashemite Court. Click here to read... [27]

Taliban ban women from university education in Afghanistan

Hundreds of young women were stopped by armed guards on Dec 14 from entering Afghan university campuses; a day after the nation’s Taliban rulers banned them from higher education in another assault on human rights. Despite promising a softer rule when they seized power last year, the Taliban have ratcheted up restrictions on all aspects of women’s lives, ignoring international outrage. A team of Agence France-Presse journalists saw groups of students gathered outside universities in the capital, Kabul, barred from entering by armed guards and shuttered gates. Many, dressed in hijabs, were also seen standing in groups on roads leading to the campuses.“We are doomed. We have lost everything,” said one student, who asked not to be identified.“It really expresses their illiteracy and low knowledge of Islam and human rights,” said one, also asking not to be named. “If the situation continues like this the future will be worse. Everyone is scared.” Most private and government universities are closed for a few weeks over winter, although campuses generally remain open to students and staff. The decision to bar women from universities came late Dec 13 in a terse announcement from Neda Mohammad Nadeem, the Minister for Higher Education.“You all are informed to immediately implement the mentioned order of suspending education of females until further notice,” it said. Washington condemned the decision “in the strongest terms”. Click here to read... [28]

Moscow reveals capabilities of new mobile ICBM launcher

Russia will commence the development of a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system next year, which will be a significant upgrade on the existing Yars system, Strategic Missile Forces (SMF) Commander Sergey Karakaev has said. The new platform will have increased mobility to facilitate “swift redeployment and launch from any region anywhere in the Russian Federation,” he told Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star), the official newspaper of the country’s military. Karakaev offered no further details about the new project. The interview was published on Dec 16, ahead of SMF Day, which will be celebrated on Dec 18.The SMF is the arm of the Russian military responsible for the country’s ground-based nuclear deterrence. It is currently “on the lookout for new technologies… which could be used to improve strategic weapon systems or create new ones,” Karakaev stated. The silo-based Sarmat ICBM, as well as the Avangard and Yars systems, are examples of what is possible through such research, he added. The general praised the Sarmat missile in particular, which he said was capable of evading any anti-ballistic missile system that could be fielded in the foreseeable future. Russia approved production of the rocket following a successful test launch in April. Earlier this week, the Defense Ministry showcased the rearmament of an SMF site in central Russia by releasing footage, which showed two Yars missiles being loaded into silos. The ICBM has silo-launched and road-mobile variants. Click here to read... [29]

Bankrupt Sri Lanka holds breath for Paris Club's China overture

As dollar-strapped Sri Lanka approaches the end of a grim economic year, officials in the South Asian nation are tuning in for encouraging signals from the Paris Club, a group of 22 wealthy countries that share debt relief deals. But a breakthrough hinges on a green light from top bilateral lender China, which is not a club member. Colombo-based diplomats and Europe-based financial insiders with knowledge of the Paris Club's workings told Nikkei Asia that progress over the Sri Lanka question remains clouded. "No creditor committee work has started yet for Sri Lanka," revealed a highly placed source familiar with the discussions in the French capital. Sri Lanka's dependency on the Paris Club -- headed by an official from the French Treasury -- emerged in May after the Indian Ocean Island formally defaulted on its sovereign debt as it ran out of dollars. Colombo flagged the Paris Club, which dates back to the 1950s, as the best bet for successful negotiations to secure "assurances" from bilateral lenders needed to access a $2.9 billion bailout promised by the International Monetary Fund. The government has been hoping to unlock the money within this year, but the governor of Sri Lanka's central bank acknowledged the talks could drag into 2023. Click here to read... [30]

Health

COVID-19 global health emergency hopefully ends next year: WHO chief

The chief of the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Dec 14 he hopes that COVID-19 will no longer be a global health emergency sometime next year.Addressing a press briefing in Geneva, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the WHO COVID-19 Emergency Committee will discuss next month the criteria for declaring an end to the COVID-19 emergency."We're hopeful that at some point next year, we will be able to say that COVID-19 is no longer a global health emergency," he said. He added, however, that the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the culprit behind the COVID-19 pandemic, will not go away." It's here to stay, and all countries will need to learn to manage it alongside other respiratory illnesses including influenza and RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus), both of which are now circulating intensely in many countries," he said. The WHO chief said one of the most important lessons from the pandemic is that all countries need to strengthen their public health systems to prepare for, prevent, detect and respond rapidly to outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics. Another key lesson is the need for much stronger cooperation in collaboration, rather than competition and confusion that marked the global response to COVID-19. Click here to read... [31]

China says it will only count Covid deaths from respiratory failure in official toll

China’s National Health Commission has clarified that only Covid-19 patients who die from respiratory failure will be counted towards the official death toll after this week reporting the first deaths since the easing of pandemic controls. Many elderly had other chronic illnesses and very few people died directly from respiratory failure caused by the coronavirus, experts from the NHC said. The clarification follows media reports that many more people had died after becoming infected and of rising demand at funeral homes and crematoriums. The commission has issued a notice clarifying how it is calculating the death toll from the disease in what it calls a “scientific and realistic manner”. The new guidelines narrow the criteria for counting Covid deaths, removing cases such as patients who had a heart attack after becoming infected. “Deaths caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure resulting from Covid-19 will be classified as Covid deaths, while deaths caused by other underlying diseases, such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, will not be counted as Covid-induced deaths,” Wang Guiqiang, an adviser to the NHC and director of the infectious diseases department at Peking University First Hospital, said on Dec 20. China has seen cases skyrocket since it relaxed its zero-Covid policy, with the new rules allowing home quarantine for mild cases and encouraging residents to use rapid antigen test kits instead of PCR mass testing. Click here to read... [32]

WHO sounds alarm over cholera vaccines

The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that global stockpiles of cholera vaccines are “empty or extremely low” as outbreaks of the disease increase, and mortality rates rise.“We have no more vaccines. More countries are continuing to request [them] and it’s extremely challenging,” Dr. Philippe Barboza, WHO team lead for cholera and epidemic diarrhoeal diseases, said in Geneva on Dec 16. The UN health watchdog official described the situation as “quite unprecedented,” since not only are there more outbreaks, but “these outbreaks are larger and more deadly than the ones we have seen in past years.” According to the WHO, there has been an increase in cholera cases globally since 2021, when 23 countries were affected. The trend has continued this year, with 29 countries reporting cases and outbreaks of the disease. The WHO pointed out that, while cholera is preventable, a shortage of vaccines persists. It said that the sole producers, South Korea and India, were already at “maximum production” of 36 million shots per year. A South African manufacturer is planning to start production but the initiative will take “a few years” to materialize, Barboza said. In October, the WHO announced it would temporarily suspend its standard two-dose vaccine regime against cholera in an effort to conserve supplies. Click here to read... [33]