Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 07 November - 13 November, 2022

Economic

China’s economic tsar sends rare public message, warnings to future policymakers

Fresh calls by China’s economic tsar – including for continued supply-side reform and closer economic connections with the rest of the world – are not only a testament to his own legacy, they may also serve to muffle expectations for a quick and impactful stimulus. Vice-Premier Liu He’s comments came as the market has been anticipating expansionary measures in the first year of President Xi Jinping’s third term, with a shift away from the current preoccupation with debt curbing, financial de-risking, and the removal of obsolete industrial capacity. His assessment serves both as a reflection of his 10 years in the economic policymaking arena, and as a rare public message to future economic policymakers – potentially Li Qiang and He Lifeng. Liu’s words, in an article published by party mouthpiece People’s Daily on Nov 04, run contrary to a time when excessive government spending on ineffective projects resulted in a massive accumulation of dangerous debt. And they appear as a warning against an overemphasis on self-sufficiency and isolationism. “The factors restricting our country’s economic development mainly lie in the supply side, as manifested in the existence of bottlenecks, blocked points and vulnerable areas, and the current supply structure cannot adapt to the changes in the demand,” Liu wrote. Click here to read... [2]

China's OFDI grows 16.3% in 2021, ranking 3rd globally for 10 consecutive years: report

China's outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) grew 16.3 percent year-on-year to reach $178.8 billion last year, ranking the third in the world for 10 consecutive years. Of the sum, investment going to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) reached $24.15 billion in 2021, hitting a new record, according to a report jointly issued by China's Ministry of Commerce, National Bureau of Statistic and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Nov 07. The report, titled 2021 China's OFDI Statistical Communiqué, showed that the accumulated volume of China's OFDI reached $2.79 trillion as of the end of 2021, ranking third globally. Also, the amount of China's OFDI basically equaled FDI inflow last year. The numbers underscore China's role as a major source of global investment. A key takeout from the report is that China's investment in BRI countries continue expanding despite global uncertainties and coronavirus flare-ups. According to the report, as of the end of 2021, China has set up over 11,000 companies in countries along the BRI, accounting for 25 percent of the foreign enterprises that Chinese companies set up abroad. Direct investments in countries were $24.15 billion last year, accounting for 13.5 percent of China's total OFDI, while accumulated OFDI volume in countries reach $213.84 billion, making up 7.7 percent of the total.Click here to read... [3]

China Eases Zero-Covid Rules as Economic Toll and Frustrations Mount

China eased pandemic controls on Nov 11, as the country’s leaders seek to lessen the pain of a stringent zero-Covid policy that has exacted a heavy economic toll and stoked rising public resentment. The newly appointed Politburo Standing Committee of the nation’s top leaders, in one of its first major decisions, set out new rules to “optimize and adjust” the policy to minimize its impact on economic growth and people’s lives, as well as further open the country’s borders to foreign visitors, according to a release Nov 11 by the National Health Commission. The new guidance shortened the mandatory quarantine time for inbound travelers and for those identified as close contacts, but notably didn’t declare an end to policies intended to completely vanquish Covid, insisting that the country “firmly stick to the dynamic zero-Covid policy.” Even so, the changes fueled a surge of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks, which were also boosted by signs of easing U.S. inflation. Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index jumped 7.7% in its biggest single-day rally since March, taking its increase so far this month to around 18%. The Shanghai Composite closed 1.7% higher on Nov 11, while China’s CSI 300 gauge of the largest mainland-listed stocks rose 2.8%. U.S. listed China stocks also gained.Click here to read... [4]

China plans to rescue property firms in strongest sign yet that policymakers are easing a years-long clampdown on sector

China has unveiled its most sweeping rescue package to bail out a real estate market mired in a record slowdown and deepening liquidity crunch, according to people familiar with the matter. The People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Nov 11 jointly issued a notice to financial institutions laying out plans to ensure the “stable and healthy development” of the property sector, said the people, asking not to be identified as the matter is private. Unlike previous piecemeal steps, the latest notice includes 16 measures that range from addressing the liquidity crisis faced by developers to loosening down-payment requirements for homebuyers, the people said. As part of the rescue plan, developers’ outstanding bank loans and trust borrowings due within the next six months can be extended for a year, while repayment on their bonds can also be extended or swapped through negotiations, the people added. The move is the strongest sign yet that Chinese policymakers are easing a years-long clampdown on the property sector, one of the biggest drags on the world’s second-largest economy along with the nation’s dogged Zero-Covid policies. Authorities also issued a sweeping set of measures to recalibrate their pandemic response on Nov 11, publicly outlining a 20-point playbook for officials aimed at reducing the economic and social impact of containing the coronavirus.Click here to read... [5]

Air show seeks to position China as global competitor

China is displaying its latest generation fighter jets and civilian aircraft this week as it looks to carve a larger role for itself in the global arms trade and compete with Boeing and Airbus. China is currently the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter and an expanding domestic industry has allowed itself to cut off former dependence on Russia. With heavy state backing, it now competes to sell drones, warplanes and missile defense systems, as well as its staple Cold War-era ground weapons and ammunition. Military aircraft on display starting Nov 08 include the J-20 stealth fighter and YU-20 aerial tanker. The air show in the southern city of Zhuhai comes as Russia’s war on Ukraine has reduced stocks to the point that the United States has accused North Korea of supplying Soviet-era ammunition such as artillery shells to replenish Russian stockpiles. Between 2017 and 2021, China made up 4.6% of total global arms exports, placing it fourth behind the U.S., Russia and France, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The bulk of its exports went to Pakistan, a long-time ally that shares a mutual rival in the other regional giant, India. Click here to read... [6]

Bangladesh, IMF Reach Deal on $4.5 Billion Aid Package

Bangladesh has reached a preliminary agreement for a $4.5 billion assistance package with the International Monetary Fund as it seeks to cushion its economy from the impact of the war in Ukraine and risks posed by climate change. The emergence of Bangladesh’s export-oriented garment manufacturing industry helped turbocharge economic growth and propel average incomes—and several indicators of human well-being—above those of South Asian neighbors India and Pakistan. But high inflation, a plunging local currency and recession concerns in the U.S. and Europe—its main export markets—have placed one of the world’s fastest-growing economies of the past decade under mounting financial pressure. “Bangladesh’s robust economic recovery from the pandemic has been interrupted by Russia’s war in Ukraine, leading to a sharp widening of the current-account deficit, rapid decline of foreign exchange reserves, rising inflation and slowing growth,” said the IMF’s mission chief to Bangladesh, Rahul Anand, at the conclusion of a two-week visit to the country on Nov 09. Since July, Bangladesh authorities have rationed electricity amid a heat wave and natural-gas shortage after shutting down all 10 of its diesel power plants as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drove up the cost of imported fuel. Rising fuel prices and soaring living costs have sparked sporadic protests, ahead of general elections to be held by the end of next year and affected the all-important apparel industry.Click here to read... [7]

U.S., Taiwan Kick Off Talks to Deepen Trade, Economic Ties

The U.S. and Taiwan began two days of face-to-face meetings in New York on Nov 08 aimed at strengthening trade and economic ties at a time of ramped-up tensions between Washington and Beijing. The meetings, which were disclosed earlier this year, are expected to cover areas including agriculture and digital trade. While the pact won’t be concluded at least until next year, Taiwanese officials have said that they hoped to deliver an “early harvest” in some areas in the coming months. China, which sees Taiwan as part of its territory, has condemned the trade initiative, saying the talks send a wrong signal that implies Taiwanese sovereignty. “China is always against any country negotiating economic and trade agreements of sovereign implication or official nature with China’s Taiwan region,” Chinese Embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said. “We urge the U.S. not to repeat its wrongdoing.” This week’s meetings come as the U.S. and Chinese governments are working to arrange a meeting between President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit of major economies in Indonesia in mid-November. Tensions are high between the two countries, with the White House continuing tariffs on Chinese imports approved by the Trump administration.Click here to read... [8]

Toyota joins 7 other Japan companies to make next-generation chips

A group of eight leading Japanese companies including Toyota Motor and Sony Group will team up with the government to launch a new entity to develop and make next-generation semiconductors, Nikkei has learned, aiming to establish manufacturing processes by the late 2020s. With competition for next-generation semiconductor technology intensifying around the world, the new company will provide a platform for collaboration with U.S. companies, as well as governments. Toyota supplier Denso, NTT, chipmaker Kioxia Holdings, NEC and SoftBank are among the companies expected to invest in the project, each pouring in about 1 billion yen ($6.8 million). Tetsuro Higashi, former president of chip equipment maker Tokyo Electron, led the establishment of the new company. MUFG Bank will also participate, and the new firm will solicit further investment and cooperation from other companies. The Japanese government will support the project through subsidies and other means. The industry minister on Nov 11 announced a strategy for domestic production of advanced chips through the new firm set up by the eight leading Japanese companies, pledging to provide 70 billion yen ($494 million) in subsidies. Named Rapidus, from Latin meaning "rapid," the new company aims to develop the next generation of logic semiconductors used in computing, known as "beyond 2-nanometer technology," and to build a production line by the end of this decade. Click here to read... [9]

Harvests fall in Asia and Africa as fertilizer prices soar on Ukraine war

Harvests have fallen in some parts of Asia and Africa as rising prices have made fertilizers inaccessible to farmers in developing nations, raising fears of an exacerbated food shortage. Sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus in the wake of Moscow's invasion Ukraine have undercut supplies of potassium chloride, a key fertilizer compound. Inorganic fertilizers require nitrogen, phosphoric acid and potassium as raw materials. Russia and Belarus together account for 40% of the global exports of potassium chloride. As a result, prices of fertilizer raw materials are 60% to 70% higher in 2022 than last year, the World Bank said in October. As the supplies decline, deep-pocketed developed countries are rushing to secure fertilizers and raw materials. The U.S. announced $500 million in subsidies for fertilizer makers in September. The subsidies are double the amount of a similar program announced in March, just after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Biden administration looks to create a national supply chain for inorganic fertilizers. Japan now imports raw materials for fertilizer mainly from Morocco and Canada, switching away from Russia and China. To ensure stable supplies of fertilizer, countries "need to shift to domestic production and diversify the supply chain" of raw materials, said Yasufumi Miwa, an agriculture expert at the Japan Research Institute.Click here to read... [10]

Global food import bill to jump to record $1.9 trillion: FAO

The world food import bill is expected to surpass $1.9 trillion in 2022, a 10 percent increase compared with last year’s record level, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has said. The figure, released in a report (PDF) on Nov 11, marks “an all-time high” due to the depreciating values of currencies against the US dollar – the main currency of exchange on international markets – as well as Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. “The bulk of the increase in the [global food import] bill is accounted for by high-income countries, due mostly to higher world prices, while volumes are also expected to rise,” the report said. Consequences will be more dramatic for economically vulnerable countries, it added. “For instance, the aggregate food import bill for the group of low-income countries is expected to remain almost unchanged even though it is predicted to shrink by 10 percent in volume terms, pointing to a growing accessibility issue for these countries,” the FAO said. Sub-Saharan Africa, already hard-hit by malnutrition, is expected to spend $4.8bn more on food imports, despite a decrease in volumes. “These are alarming signs from a food security perspective,” FAO said. Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 30 percent of the world wheat trade and 78 percent of sunflower oil exports before Russia launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbour on February 24.Click here to read... [11]

Soaring methane emissions raise stakes for Asia at COP27

One of the great disappointments overshadowing the COP27 climate change conference is how little has been achieved since COP26. Bold promises made last year in Glasgow for a renewed agenda on tackling global warming have been drowned out by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the case of methane, or CH4. The most powerful greenhouse gas conservatively accounts for 17% to 20% of greenhouse emissions and is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in trapping heat over its first 20 years in the atmosphere. "I cannot overemphasize the urgency of targeting methane emissions," said Juergen Voegele, the World Bank's vice president for sustainable development, at the Global Methane, Climate and Clean Air Forum in September. Methane has mysteriously played second fiddle to CO2 in the ensemble of noxious gases that continue to drive up Earth's temperature, which is set to rise almost 3 C by century's end based on current trends. With the U.S. and the European Union taking the lead at COP26, over 100 countries managed to sign a nonbinding Global Methane Pledge to reduce methane emissions 30% by 2030 relative to 2020 levels. But methane was not mentioned in the COP26 summary of negotiable objectives and was not one of the four action items for defusing the "ticking doomsday device" cited by then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson: "coal, cars, cash and trees."
Click here to read... [12]

Russia finds way around shortage of Western imports

The volume of parallel imports to Russia may exceed $15 billion in value terms by the end of the year, First Deputy Head of Russia’s Federal Customs Service Ruslan Davydov told reporters on Nov 10. Parallel imports allow deliveries of products that are in demand on the Russian market through third countries without the permission of the trademark holders. For example, Russian vendors are permitted to buy iPhones from Turkey instead of directly from the supplier. “The data as of the end of October is $12.6 billion in parallel imports and 1.6 million tons … A cautious forecast by the end of the year is more than $15 billion and more than 2 million tons,” Davydov said. The Russian government legalized parallel imports back in March to meet the demand for foreign goods after many international brands started halting business in Russia amid Western sanctions. The measure involves the import of original goods, but through alternative supply channels. The list of goods for parallel imports is approved by Russia’s Trade Ministry and can be amended when the need for a new product arises. However, a brand can be added to the parallel imports list only if its owner’s company left the Russian market, stopped deliveries or halted production in Russia.Click here to read... [13]

Chinese car brands conducting major expansion in Russia – report

Chinese car dealerships have been opening in Russia at a record pace, RIA Novosti reported this week, citing analysis by Otkrytiye Auto. Since the beginning of the year, the number has increased by almost 300 to 936, according to the report. “Russian auto retailers have never seen such a rapid growth in the number of car dealers from Greater China, which happened this fall,” Otkrytiye Auto experts said, noting that 185 showrooms had opened from July to November. The leading brand among the new dealerships was Exeed with 48. A total of 47 new franchises of the new Omoda brand also opened, while Chery is now the leading Chinese brand with 167 dealerships in Russia. Geely also increased its number of car dealerships by a third in just 10 months, with 44 new openings, bringing the company’s total number of dealerships in Russia to 133. The number of FAW and Changan dealerships has also increased. “Among other China brands that did not make it into the top 10, we should mention, are new brands Voyah and Skywell, which have already opened three new stores this fall, as well as GAC, with one new sales outlet,” the report said. The popularity of Chinese automobiles in Russia has been rising amid the exodus of European, American, and Japanese brands. Click here to read... [14]

EU threatens to retaliate over Washington’s green initiative

The European Union on Nov 07 accused the United States of breaking World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules with its flagship green technology legislation, promising to take retaliatory measures. The warning highlights concern over Washington's so-called Inflation Reduction Act, which provides for vast spending on green energy initiatives and includes subsidies and tax credits for American producers and consumers. Brussels says those benefits for American electric vehicle makers would put EU manufacturers at an unfair disadvantage in the lucrative US domestic market. It demands that the US give EU companies the same treatment as other trading partners, including Canada and Mexico. According to the Financial Times, Brussels wants changes to nine of the provisions in the legislation, which restrict subsidies and tax credits to products made in the US, or companies operating there. The incentives affect manufacturing and investment in products including solar panels, wind turbines and clean hydrogen. Meanwhile, EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton has threatened to take “retaliatory measures” against the US, calling the subsidies “contrary to World Trade Organization rules.” If Washington doesn’t take into account the views of its EU partners, the bloc could “go to the WTO” and make its arguments there, Breton told TV station BFM Business on Nov 07.Click here to read... [15]

Softbank returns to profit as investments rebound

Japanese technology investor Softbank Group Corp. reported on Nov 11 a 3 trillion yen ($21 billion) profit for the July-September quarter, a sharp reversal from its loss a year ago. After its 398 billion yen loss a year earlier, quarterly sales rose to 1.6 trillion yen ($11 billion) from 1.5 trillion yen, it said. Tokyo-based Softbank Group tends to have fluctuating and complex financial results because it invests in an array of companies, and their stock prices have shifted lately, depending on various global factors. Among the factors boosting its bottom line were profits from prepaid contracts using Alibaba shares, reduction of interest-bearing debt and investment gains, Softbank said. The settling of prepaid shares in e-commerce giant Alibaba alone brought in more than 4 trillion yen ($28 billion). Softbank invests in hundreds of companies, including mobile carrier Softbank, web services provider Yahoo and vehicle-for-hire company Didi. It also is involved in the Vision Fund that includes other global investors. While its holdings in Alibaba worked as a plus for its bottom line, its Vision Fund investments hurt, according to Softbank. Vision Fund One recorded gains on some investments such as Uber Technologies but had losses on others including Door Dash. Vision Fund Two racked up losses because of the share price decline of WeWork, Softbank said in a statement.Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

President Biden, Xi Jinping to Spell Out Priorities During Bali Meeting

When President Biden meets Chinese President Xi Jinping for highly anticipated talks Nov 14, the two sides will seek to dial down tensions that have run high for months and establish a better understanding of each other’s priorities over the coming years, U.S. and Chinese officials said. Both sides said the meeting is unlikely to yield major policy breakthroughs. But Mr. Biden’s advisers said they hope it will help improve communication and set expectations on significant issues between the two powers, including their differences over Taiwan, China’s relations with Russia and recent missile tests by North Korea. It will be the leaders’ first in-person meeting since Mr. Biden became president, though the two had extensive interactions when they served as vice presidents of their respective countries. The talks will take place in Bali, Indonesia, where they are both attending a summit of the Group of 20 major economies. “I know him well. He knows me,” President Biden said Sunday. “We just got to figure out where the red lines are.” Relations between the U.S. and China have been particularly tense since an August visit to Taiwan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Beijing saw that visit as evidence of Washington’s support to Taiwan in resisting the Communist Party’s goal of eventual unification. The subject of Taiwan is likely to come up during Nov 14’s meeting, as will the war in Ukraine.Click here to read... [17]

China poised to cut economic reform commitment from lawmaking

China is poised to remove calls for economic reform and opening up from upcoming legislation, a draft shows, replacing them with a reference to President Xi Jinping's signature ideology in a move seen pushing market-friendly policies lower on the agenda. Under the draft amendment released to the public, the revised "legislation law" would no longer call for legislation to be made "in compliance with the basic principles laid down in the Constitution" or for economic development to be taken as a "central task." Language that calls for adhering to reform and opening up is deleted. The law would instead call for the creation of a new legal framework that adheres to "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era," according to the draft, which is expected to pass as early as this year. China watchers say that the proposed changes could stall economic reforms. Xi emphasized national security and social stability in October at the Communist Party congress, where he secured a rare third term as party leader. He made fewer references to China's reform and opening up -- a program spearheaded by Deng Xiaoping that brought the country into the global economy in the late 1970s and '80s -- and instead unveiled his own vision for "Chinese modernization." Much of the legislation currently being deliberated by the National People's Congress, China's parliament, is on themes related to national security and social stability. Click here to read... [18]

Israeli President Hands Mandate to Benjamin Netanyahu to Form Government

Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Nov 13 handed a mandate to Benjamin Netanyahu to form a new government as negotiations over a governing coalition gained momentum. Mr. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister until he was ousted from power a year and a half ago, prevailed in this month’s election, the country’s fifth in under four years. In consultations with Mr. Herzog last week, Mr. Netanyahu secured the recommendation of 64 lawmakers from his right-wing and religious bloc, giving him a clear majority in the 120-seat Parliament, or Knesset. Mr. Netanyahu has promised to form a purely right-wing coalition including ultranationalist and religious parties. Starting Nov 13, Mr. Netanyahu will have up to six weeks to establish a new government and try to entice more lawmakers to join. He is already in negotiations with the parties that make up his bloc over assigning key ministerial posts and a policy platform. Lawmakers from his party say a new government could be established as early as this week or next. Speaking alongside Mr. Herzog, Mr. Netanyahu said he would focus on issues that most Israelis support, such pursuing peace with Arab countries, cutting back on business regulation, fighting Iran’s efforts to obtain nuclear weapons, keeping Jerusalem the country’s united capital and maintaining the Jewish character of Israel.Click here to read... [19]

Frustrated Republicans Try to Explain Lack of Midterm ‘Red Wave’

Weaker-than-expected results in the midterm elections for Republicans set off a wave of second-guessing of the party’s approach in a campaign seen as a prime opportunity to pick off dozens of seats from weakened Democrats. The GOP still appeared on track to win the majority in the House, though with a much smaller margin than many election analysts and party officials had predicted, amid concerns over inflation and crime under Democratic control of Washington. In the Senate, the margin will likely be tight, and could once again come down to a Georgia runoff as it did in 2020, puncturing party hopes of winning a comfortable majority. The uncertainty over the result contrasts with the party’s giddy optimism of a possible “red wave” headed into Election Day—and brought to the surface simmering fears and disagreements, particularly over the makeup of the GOP’s lineup. “As it turns out, candidates and campaigns matter,” said Kevin McLaughlin, an ally of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) and a former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Mr. McConnell had aired concerns over some candidates earlier in the cycle, taking public a fight with former President Donald Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R., Fla.), the head of the Republicans’ Senate campaign arm. Click here to read... [20]

ASEAN talks lay bare deep divisions on South China Sea, Ukraine

Southeast Asian leaders on Nov 13 concluded their annual summit, after three days of intense talks on everything from the crisis in Myanmar to the Ukraine war and tensions in the South China Sea. The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations held the marathon meetings in Cambodia's capital, Phnom Penh, where discussions with bigger powers including China, the U.S. and Russia highlighted deep divisions on critical security issues. "We must maintain ASEAN unity regardless of circumstances for the best interests of the whole region," Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, this year's rotating ASEAN chair, said as he handed over the chairmanship to Indonesian President Joko Widodo. Shortly before the proceedings wrapped up, U.S. President Joe Biden, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida participated in the East Asia Summit, which brought together leaders from ASEAN as well as eight dialogue partners -- South Korea, Australia, India and Russia also among them. The anticipated East Asia Summit statement was not immediately released, amid reports that the U.S. and Russia disagreed on the language. Still, an initial draft seen by Nikkei Asia and remarks by various leaders over the three days offered a window on participants' mindset -- and a preview of a closely watched bilateral meeting between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, set to take place in Bali on Nov 14.Click here to read... [21]

Japan, South Korea hold 1st summit in years with eye on Pyongyang

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol on Nov 13 held the first official summit between the two countries in nearly three years, in the wake of North Korea's recent spate of missile tests. In a meeting that lasted around 45 minutes, at the tail end of three days of international summitry in the Cambodian capital, Kishida and Yoon reaffirmed that they would keep working closely to address the threat from Pyongyang's weapons. Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Kishida said the two leaders confirmed they would work together "to realize a free and open Indo-Pacific," in addition to tackling the North Korean issue. The neighboring countries are both longtime security allies of the U.S., but their ties are often embroiled in various disputes over historical issues stemming from Japan's colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula until the end of World War II. Tokyo and Seoul last had a formal meeting in December 2019, though Kishida and Yoon did have an "informal" conversation at the United Nations General Assembly in September. Relations sank to their lowest point in years under Yoon's predecessor, Moon Jae-in, after South Korea's Supreme Court in 2018 ordered two major Japanese companies to pay damages over wartime labor. The companies have refused to comply, as Japan contends that all claims stemming from colonial rule were settled under a bilateral agreement in 1965.Click here to read... [22]

Putin won’t address G20 summit – Kremlin

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not join the upcoming G20 summit via video link or send a pre-recorded message, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has announced. The official also revealed that Putin had earlier personally made the decision not to attend the meeting because of the “need to stay” in Russia. When asked by journalists on Nov 11 whether the Russian head of state would extend his greetings to the leaders gathering in Indonesia’s Bali virtually, Peskov said: “No, [this is] not planned.” He also confirmed that Putin will not participate in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit that kicks off in Thailand’s capital, Bangkok, Nov 19. Commenting on the reasons why the Russian president will not be traveling to the G20 gathering, the Kremlin spokesperson clarified that Putin had personally made the decision “[which is] connected with his schedule” and the “need to stay in the Russian Federation.” On Nov 10, Peskov had told reporters that the Russian head of state would not attend the meeting of world leaders in Bali in person. The Russian delegation will be headed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov instead, he added. Despite having come under pressure by the US and several other nations to block Putin from attending the summit, Jakarta did issue an invitation to the Russian president.Click here to read... [23]

China debuts latest air defense missiles, laser at Airshow China 2022

China unveiled several of its latest air defense missile and laser systems at the Airshow China 2022 held in Zhuhai, South China's Guangdong Province from Nov 08 to Nov 13, in a move experts said showed that China is building a world-class comprehensive air defense system that can safeguard the country's sky from potential attacks. Despite having been exhibited to the general public in the past, the HQ-9B surface-to-air missile weapon system of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force on display at the Airshow China featured for the first time a new type of missile in addition to the previously known one. Eight of this new type of missile can be carried by the same transporter erector launcher that can carry four of the previously known type, as the new missile is about the same length but obviously thinner than the old one. The new, smaller missiles are likely to be a part of the HQ-9B, and likely to have a shorter range than the old and larger missiles. The smaller size allows a single transporter erector launcher to carry more of them, Wei Dongxu, a Chinese military expert, told the Global Times at the airshow site.Click here to read... [24]

Japan devises hypersonic plan – media

Japan is planning to redesign some of its existing surface-to-air missiles to intercept hypersonic weapons, Kyodo News reported on Nov 07, suggesting the move is part of a broader strategy to enhance Tokyo’s “counterattack capabilities” over the next decade. The military is hoping to complete upgrades to its Type-03 medium-range missile and put the new model into mass production by 2029, according to the outlet, which cited an unnamed “source familiar with the matter.” The redesign is part of an effort to improve Japan’s “comprehensive air and missile defense,” and will reportedly be outlined in a revised National Security Strategy set to be released before the end of the year, the source added. Designed and produced by Mitsubishi, the Type-03 SAM platform entered service in the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JFSDF) in 2003, and currently has an operational range of around 50km (31 miles). However, given that hypersonic munitions travel at more than five times the speed of sound and fly along irregular trajectories, the Type-03 and similar air defense systems have difficulty tracking and neutralizing such weapons. The source told Kyodo that the Type-03 will be “improved to predict the flight path of hypersonic weapons and track them as well as to detect them by radar,” but added that it remains unclear whether such upgrades will be enough to counter the new tech. Click here to read... [25]

Iran has developed hypersonic weapon – top commander

Iran has developed a ballistic missile capable of flying at hypersonic speeds, a senior military officer told journalists on Nov 10. The weapon system is designed to destroy enemy anti-missile defenses and can maneuver both inside and outside of the atmosphere, indicating its relatively long range. The news came from Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He spoke to journalists on the sidelines of a commemorative event dedicated to his predecessor, Hassan Tehrani Moghadam, who is credited with launching Iran’s long-range ballistic missile program. Hajizadeh stressed that the technology to intercept hypersonic missiles was unlikely to be developed for decades but offered no further details about the purported new weapon system. Hypersonic weapons come in various designs but are all capable of withstanding extreme conditions of flying through the atmosphere at speeds exceeding five times the speed of sound. Only a handful of nations, such as Russia, China, and the US, have the advanced technology necessary to build such weapons. Iran invested heavily in developing missile capabilities since its decade-long war with Iraq in the 1980s. Tehran says its arsenal of weapons is a deterrent against possible aggression by the US or its regional allies, including Israel and Saudi Arabia. Click here to read... [26]

China willing to contribute to climate damage compensation

China would be willing to contribute to a mechanism for compensating poorer countries for losses and damage caused by climate change, its climate envoy Xie Zhenhua has said. Speaking at the COP27 environmental conference in Egypt on Nov 09, Xie said China had no obligation to participate but stressed his solidarity with those calling for more action from wealthy nations on the issue and outlined the damage China had suffered from climate-linked weather extremes. China is designated by the World Trade Organization as a developing country, despite having the world’s second-largest economy. Last month, United States special climate envoy John Kerry told reporters that China should contribute its own funds to loss and damage, “especially if they think they’re going to continue to go on to the next 30 years with increasing their emissions,” Politico reported. Xie noted that Kerry, “his friend for 25 years”, had not raised this issue with him during informal talks at COP27 this week. He added that China already contributed billions of yuan (hundreds of millions of dollars) to developing countries to help with their mitigation efforts. After US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this August, China said it would halt all dialogue with the US on climate, despite unveiling a pact with the US at COP26 in Glasgow last year to cooperate on climate change.Click here to read... [27]

Putin, Raisi discuss deepening ties between Russia and Iran

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart, President Ebrahim Raisi, have discussed deepening political, trade and economic cooperation in a phone call on Nov 12, their governments said in separate statements. The two leaders “touched upon some pressing bilateral issues with a focus on how to build up cooperation in the political, trade and economic areas, including in the field of transport and logistics”, the Kremlin said. “They agreed that the corresponding Russian and Iranian institutions will increase contact,” the statement added. The Iranian Presidency said Raisi welcomed “Russia’s desire to strengthen economic cooperation with the Islamic Republic”, especially the development of transport lines in the Eurasian region. “This transit route will become an attractive route for the economy and trade in the world,” Raisi was quoted as saying. The statement added that Putin had expressed sympathy for the government and the people of Iran for the attack on a Shia religious shrine in the southern Iranian city of Shiraz, which killed 15 people and injured 40 others. The call comes on the heels of a meeting between senior Russian security official Nikolai Patrushev and Iran’s top security official Ali Shamkhani in Tehran on Nov 09, in which they discussed the situation in Ukraine and measures to combat what they called “Western interference” in their internal affairs, according to Russian state media.Click here to read... [28]

Russia says withdrawing troops from strategic Kherson, but Ukraine doubts full pull-out

Moscow ordered troops to withdraw from near the strategic southern Ukrainian city of Kherson in a major setback as a top US general estimated Russia has suffered more than 100,000 killed or wounded since invading its neighbour in February. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on Nov 09 announced Russian forces would retreat from the west bank of the Dnipro River near Kherson in what could be a turning point in the war. Ukraine reacted with caution to the announcement, saying some Russian forces were still in Kherson and additional Russian manpower was being sent to the region. “They are moving out but not as much as would be taking place if it was a full pull-out or regrouping,” Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, said in a video posted online on Nov 09 night. Russian forces were destroying bridges as they left and mining roads, Arestovych said. “And for the moment, we don’t know their intentions – will they engage in fighting with us and will they try to hold the city of Kherson? They are moving very slowly,” he said. Kherson city was the only regional capital Russia captured after the invasion, and it has been the focus of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. The city controls both the only land route to the Crimea peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014, and the mouth of the Dnipro, the river that bisects Ukraine. Russian-installed officials have been evacuating tens of thousands of civilians in recent weeks.Click here to read... [29]

What China’s new military leadership line-up says about Xi’s plans for Taiwan

While the world’s attention was focused on the appointment of Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term at last month’s 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi quietly appointed a new line-up of military leaders. These six members – who will sit on the Central Military Commission (CMC), China’s top military body – will shape China’s military and security policy for the next five years, if not longer. Their appointment also signals that Xi is more serious about Taiwan. Personal relationships have long proved beneficial to upward mobility in Chinese politics, so it comes as no surprise that ties to Xi influenced the new CMC leadership. But two other interrelated traits seemed equally important, and potentially worrisome for the international community: operational experience in China’s Eastern Theatre Command (ETC), which oversees Taiwan military planning, and combat experience. In other words, Taiwan – and the operational imperatives for a military contingency – appear to have been prominently on Xi’s mind in choosing his next slate of military leaders. While this might not necessarily translate to increased tension and confrontation across the Taiwan Strait, it does underscore a military-focused approach to the Taiwan problem. The CMC is China’s highest military operational and decision-making body. The body is led by Xi, its chairman, two vice-chairman and four other members who together form the nucleus of China’s military operations.Click here to read... [30]

Tehran threatens Baku over trans-Caspian cooperation

Continuing tectonic changes in macro-regional Asian geopolitics have been launched by the combination of Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War two years ago and Russia’s approaching defeat in its war of aggression in Ukraine. Those changes reach far beyond the South Caucasus and Eastern European geopolitical theaters. They range, indeed, from Southwest Asia (including Iran and Syria) to Central Asia. To understand these changes and their implications, it is useful to begin by summarizing how the Russian war against Ukraine has changed the international dynamics around Syria and Israel. From there, the relation to the South Caucasus region will become clear, and from there, to the Caspian Sea region and Central Asia. Russia has in recent months moved more directly and forthrightly toward overt military and strategic cooperation with Iran. That is because its losses in the Ukraine theater have obliged it to redeploy its forces away from Syria (as well as the South Caucasus) to Ukraine. Russia’s understanding with Israel had been that the latter had relative liberty to counteract Iranian and Iranian-backed forces in Syria, so long as Israel did not interfere with Russian interests in the broader region. Now, however, with the weakening of the Russian military in the Greater Levant region, Israel is more free to counteract Iran’s interests in Lebanon and no longer needs Russia’s “permission” to defend its strategic interests in the Greater Levant.Click here to read... [31]

Medical

Cholera’s return to Lebanon after 3 decades exposes clean water crisis

In just one month, the outbreak has spread throughout the country of 6 million, infecting nearly 2,000 people and killing 17, according to the latest Health Ministry data. Lebanon had been cholera-free since 1993, but its public services are suffering under a brutal economic crisis now in its fourth year. Cholera, a diarrheal disease spread by ingestion of food or water tainted with human feces, can kill within hours if untreated, with children most at risk. El Hamed, whose son needed resuscitation when he was admitted to Al-Rassi Governmental Hospital in Akkar district last week, said she was praying he would recover - and dreading going home to the same dire situation. "We will have to return to drinking the same infectious water that brought us here," the 34-year-old Syrian told reporters as she waited at the hospital for doctors to update her on her son's condition. The UN children's agency UNICEF says cash-strapped refugees and Lebanese families are being forced to rely on contaminated water sources due to inadequate piped supplies and the rising cost of private alternatives. Access to sufficient supplies of clean tap water has become patchy as distribution systems fail - partly due to widespread power cuts that bring pumping stations and purification plants to a standstill, according to UNICEF. Click here to read... [32]

China's southern metropolis Guangzhou records 12,000 infections since Nov amid 'severest epidemic in 3 years'

China's southern metropolis Guangzhou has been suffering its "most complicated and severe" COVID-19 epidemic in three years, with the number of newly infected cases surging since November to exceed 12,000. According to data released Nov 10 by the Guangzhou Health Commission, the city on Nov 09 found 2,555 local infections, among which 125 were confirmed cases and 2,430 were asymptomatic patients, lifting the total number since November to 12,846. Among the 2,555 cases, 2,444 were found in one district - Haizhu, accounting for over 95 percent of the daily cases in the city. In response to the surge in infections, most schools except those in three districts - Nansha, Conghua and Zengcheng - were requested to close on Nov 10 and conduct online courses. Colleges and universities as well as senior students in senior high schools have been put under closed-loop management. Airports in Guangzhou saw widespread flight cancellations on Nov 09 and Nov 10. The source of some sporadic positive cases was not clear, and the risk of community transmission was high, the local health commission said at Nov 10's press conference. Also, the epidemic situation in Liwan district showed sporadic distribution and local cross infections, according to the health authority.Click here to read... [33]