Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 30 May 2022 - 05 June 2022

Economic

Dollar’s Climb Stalls Amid Mixed Economic Signals

A run of mixed economic data is dragging on the U.S. dollar, stalling a rally that has rippled through the economy and financial markets. The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, is around 2% off its May peak and fell 1.1% last month. That decline broke a steady march that brought the dollar to multi-decade highs. The index rose 0.6% last week, breaking a two-week losing streak. Behind the slip has been a subtle shift in the economic landscape. According to recent economic reports, American consumers are still spending money at a rapid pace, while employers keep adding jobs, extending the trends that had helped lift the dollar over the past 12 months or so. Yet there have been signs of weakness elsewhere. Wage growth has moderated from last year, and consumers have been able to sustain their spending only by dipping into savings. The U.S. service sector, which includes restaurant dining and travel, slowed its pace of expansion in May, and sales of new homes in April posted their biggest drop in nine years. Overall, the data has clouded some asset managers’ outlook of the U.S. economy. They are now wary that the Federal Reserve might have to slow the pace of expected interest-rate increases. That might be welcomed by stock investors, who are acutely aware of the risks that rising rates pose for highly valued shares, but its meaning would be murkier in currency markets. Click here to read... [2]

US-China trade war: ‘all options’ on table in tariff review, Washington seeking ‘structure that makes sense’

The Biden administration is considering “all options” as it reviews potential changes to US duties on Chinese imports, including tariff relief and new trade investigations in a shift of focus to strategic concerns with Beijing, Deputy US Trade Representative (USTR) Sarah Bianchi said on June 02. Bianchi told Reuters in an interview that the agency is seeking to address long-term challenges from China and “getting a tariff structure that really makes sense”. “We’re looking at everything and what we’re focussed on is making sure that we have again, a long term realignment of the relationship with China, focusing on some of the concerns … such as non-market practices and economic coercion,” Bianchi said. US President Joe Biden has said he is considering removing some of the tariffs imposed on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods by predecessor Donald Trump in 2018 and 2019 amid a bitter trade war between the world’s two largest economies. His administration is seeking ways to cool inflation, and industry groups have called for tariff cuts to reduce costs for businesses and consumersClick here to read... [3]

U.S. is ready to implement ban on Xinjiang goods on June 21

U.S. authorities are ready to implement a ban on imports from China’s Xinjiang region when a law requiring it becomes enforceable later in June, a U.S. Customs official said on June 01, adding that a “very high” level of evidence would be required for an exemption. U.S. President Joe Biden in December signed into law the Uyghur Forced Labour Prevention Act (UFLPA) in an effort to safeguard the U.S. market from products potentially tainted by human rights abuses in Xinjiang, where the U.S. government says China is committing genocide against Uyghur Muslims. The law includes a “rebuttable presumption” that all goods from Xinjiang, where Chinese authorities established detention camps for Uyghurs and other Muslim groups, are made with forced labour, and bars their import unless it can be proven otherwise. China denies abuses in Xinjiang, a major cotton producer that also supplies much of the world’s materials for solar panels and says the law “slanders” the country’s human rights situation. Some U.S. lawmakers have supported requests by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for more budget to effectively implement that provision, which goes into effect on June 21. Importers will have the option to re-export prohibited cargo back to the country of origin, and any exemptions to the presumption must be granted by the CBP commissioner and reported to Congress, Muneton said. Click here to read... [4]

U.S., Taiwan to launch trade talks after island excluded from Indo-Pacific group

The United States will launch new trade talks with Taiwan, U.S. officials said on June 01, just days after the Biden administration excluded the Chinese-claimed Island from its Asia-focussed economic plan designed to counter China’s growing influence. Washington and Taipei will “move quickly to develop a roadmap” for the planned U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade in the coming weeks, which would be followed by in-person meetings in the U.S. capital later in June, two senior U.S. administration officials told reporters during a phone briefing. The initiative would aim to “reach an agreement with high standard commitments that create inclusive and durable prosperity” on issues that include customs facilitation, fighting corruption, common standards on digital trade, labour rights, high environmental standards, and efforts to curb state-owned enterprises and non-market practices, one of the U.S. officials said. The bilateral initiative in some ways parallels U.S. President Joe Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), an economic partnership with 13 Asian countries that he launched last week during a visit to Seoul and Tokyo. Countries approached by Washington were reluctant to join a grouping with the island for fear of angering Beijing, according to a U.S. official involved in the initial talks. Over 200 members of the U.S. Congress had urged Taiwan’s inclusion in IPEF. Click here to read... [5]

Taiwan tells EU it will remain 'trusted' chip partner globally

Taiwan will continue to be a trusted partner for the global chip industry and help stabilize the supply chain, Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua told a senior European Union official at rare high-level talks on June 02 that Taipei described as a big breakthrough. The EU has been courting Taiwan, a major semiconductor producer, to build plants in the bloc, and Taiwan, facing unrelenting pressure from China -- which claims the island as its own -- has been keen to show it can be a good friend to fellow democracies. In February, the EU unveiled the European Chips Act, with the bloc mentioning Taiwan, home to the world's largest contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) and other major semiconductor companies, as one of the "like-minded partners" Europe would like to work with. Wang's ministry said in a statement that the talks, with Sabine Weyand, director-general for trade at the European Commission, focused on areas including semiconductor cooperation. Wang emphasized that "Taiwan will continue to be a trusted partner of the global semiconductor industry and help stabilize supply chain resilience," the ministry said. The ministry also noted that previous Taiwan-EU meetings were at the deputy level, and this one had been raised to ministerial level, calling it a major breakthrough in Taiwan-EU relations. Click here to read... [6]

Ruble-Yuan trade soars over 1,000%

Russia and China are continuing to eliminate the US dollar from mutual trade as monthly volumes on the exchange of ruble and Yuan have reportedly soared 1,067% to nearly $4 billion over the past three months. According to Bloomberg calculations, some 25.91 billion yuan, or $3.9 billion, have been exchanged for rubles on the Moscow spot market so far in May, marking a twelvefold surge versus the volumes recorded in February, when Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine. The spike coincides with a rally in the ruble to a five-year high against the yuan and the US dollar. Meanwhile, volume in the dollar-ruble pairing reportedly dropped to the lowest level in a decade. The ruble rallied 118% against the greenback between early March and late May, even as most traders deserted the pair amid capital controls and forced dollar sales. “The main players in the Yuan-ruble market are corporations and banks, but there is also a growing interest from retail investors,” a currency and rates strategist at Sberbank CIB, Yuri Popov, told the agency. “The volume on the Moscow Exchange’s spot market has surged. This is due to sanctions concerns, as well as the intentions of Russia and China to encourage the usage of national currencies in bilateral trade,” he added. Click here to read... [7]

Russia explains why its grain can't get to the EU

Russian grain exports can’t get to Europe because the sanctions imposed by the EU on Moscow effectively block supplies, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov explained on June 01. “Although Western countries keep saying that grain has not been sanctioned, they for some reason fail to mention that the ships that transport Russian grain are in fact under sanctions. European ports do not allow them in, there’s no insurance available and in general Western sanctions have disrupted the logistical and financial infrastructure that Russia uses to export its own grain,” Lavrov told journalists in Moscow. The EU banned Russian vessels from entering its ports as part of the fifth package of sanctions adopted in April. Lavrov’s comments follow accusations from Western nations that Russia is blocking Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, something that Moscow has denied. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Ukraine has blocked its own ports by laying mines that prevent ships from going out to sea. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said last week that the situation with the global threat to grain supplies had become alarming for developing countries. The UN official also said the conflict in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russia affected the prices and availability of fertilizers, and these factors combined were propelling the cost of wheat, which could worsen the food crisis globally. Click here to read... [8]

Saudi Arabia pressured to pump more oil – FT

Saudi Arabia may agree to boost oil production to cool skyrocketing prices if Russia’s output falls significantly under the new EU sanctions, the Financial Times reported on June 02. The Kingdom, the world’s largest oil producer, has repeatedly rejected demands from the US to raise crude production immediately. According to the FT's sources, the Saudi government believes that the situation in global oil markets has not yet become critical and that its spare capacity should be kept in reserve. However, according to the publication, the recent visit by a high-level US delegation to Riyadh has led to a shift in tone. This also comes against the backdrop of a fresh EU oil embargo. Adopted on May 31, the measures prohibit the importation of Russian oil to the EU by sea. European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said the ban will “effectively cut around 90% of oil imports from Russia to the EU by the end of the year.” The EU and UK have also agreed to ban the insurance of ships carrying Russian oil cargoes to further hamper Russia’s ability to export its crude. Russia is the world’s second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia. Before the start of its military operation in Ukraine it was supplying more than 10% of global crude. Click here to read... [9]

Can Qatar Really Replace Russia As Germany’s Gas Supplier?

Qatar signed a declaration of intent on energy cooperation with Germany aimed at becoming the de facto E.U. leader’s key supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) going forward. These new supplies of LNG from Qatar would come into Germany through existing importation routes augmented by new infrastructure approved by the German Bundestag on 19 May. This includes the deployment of four floating LNG import facilities on its northern coast, and two permanent onshore terminals, which are even now under development, according to sources within the E.U.’s energy security apparatus exclusively spoken to by Oilprice.com last week. In order, then, to fully become Germany’s substitute for Russian gas right now – assuming that Germany’s LNG importation infrastructure was ready now, rather than at an as-yet-undecided date – Qatar would have to send over 58 percent of all its LNG to Germany, ignoring all other calls on that gas. As of the end of last year, not only did Qatar have long-term supply contracts in place for domestic consumers, of course, and also for its prized clients in Asia (Asia was Qatar’s biggest market for LNG deliveries last year, with a total of 78.5 bcm delivered), but also various other countries in Europe, accounting for around 5 percent of total European consumption. Click here to read... [10]

China economy: Beijing unveils detailed stimulus plan to offset coronavirus damage

China has released further details of a stimulus package aimed at propping up the faltering economy, ranging from tax cuts to infrastructure spending to job subsidies. The state council, China’s cabinet, unveiled a 33-point plan last week, covering fiscal and monetary policies, investment and consumption, food and energy security, supply chain stability and people’s livelihoods. Various government departments published more detailed policies on May 31 to meet the end-of-month deadline set by Premier Li Keqiang. The State Council said separately local governments and agencies should “effectively stabilise the economy in the second quarter” and lay a “solid foundation” for the latter half of the year. Economic activity should be maintained at a reasonable growth rate ahead of the party’s 20th congress, it said in a statement. Getting the economy back on a growth trajectory was an urgent target for the second quarter, said Li, who chairs the council. In an unusually candid speech last week, the premier admitted for the first time that China may miss the economic growth target of “around 5.5 per cent” that Beijing laid out earlier this year. However, he did not signal a change to the zero-Covid policy that has been so detrimental to the economy. Click here to read... [11]

China softens blow of U.S. sanctions on military companies

With all U.S. citizens and entities forbidden from investing China's military-industrial companies by June 03, Beijing has mobilized state funds and its capital market to cushion the potential fallout. One of these blacklisted companies, CloudWalk Technology, an artificial intelligence solution provider, debuted on the Shanghai STAR Market last week. The company raised 1.72 billion yuan ($258 million) from a new share issuance prior to its June 03 listing, drawing from domestic investors. About a third was purchased by nine state-backed strategic investors, including Shanghai Shangguo Investment Asset Management and South Industry Assets Management. The former is indirectly controlled by Shanghai city government, where the latter is an investment arm of China South Industries Group, one of the state military conglomerates that are also part of Washington's divestment list. CloudWalk Technology's stock soared 78% from its offering price during the first four trading days, closing at 27.35 yuan on June 01. The sanctions to ban all Americans from investing in Chinese companies identified as having military ties originated under U.S. President Donald Trump in November 2019, starting with 31 companies. It was later amended by President Joe Biden on June 3, 2021, setting the full enforcement deadline exactly a year later, with the list growing to 59. Nine more were added, increasing the roster to 68. Click here to read... [12]

Tech war: Chinese database software vendor shrugs off sanctions risk on using open-source code from Oracle’s MySQL system

A Chinese software vendor has brushed aside speculation that its enterprise product, which uses code from Oracle Corp’s MySQL open-source relational database management system, faces the risk of sanctions amid simmering tensions between Washington and Beijing. Beijing Wanli Open Source Software Co recently indicated that its open-source database system GreatDB, used by major state-owned firms like China Mobile and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, is not threatened by sanctions or suspensions because the core technology was developed independently, according to the company’s WeChat post May 30. That declaration followed assurances made by Shenzhen-listed Troy Information Technology Co, parent of Beijing Wanli Open Source, days earlier to investors that it controls all relevant codes and technologies. Troy, however, admitted that GreatDB’s storage node was built on open-source technology from GreatSQL – a unit of MySQL, whose database software is used by the likes of Microsoft’s Azure cloud business and Amazon Web Services. To further clarify, Troy said: “The core of GreatSQL is not related to MySQL, and it is an independent technology evolution.” Concerns about open-source code safety are not new in China. An article published last year by Wang Xiaodong, a researcher at the State Information Centre, put the “supply suspension” risks as a key threat to China’s securityClick here to read... [13]

Malaysia palm group warns of losses ahead from ‘severe’ labour crunch

Malaysia is missing a golden opportunity to capitalise on high palm oil prices and could suffer more production losses due to a “severe” shortage of about 120,000 workers, the Malaysian Estate Owners’ Association (MEOA) told Reuters on June 06. The world’s second largest palm oil producer has been struggling to harvest palm fruit due to a labour shortage exacerbated by its pandemic-related immigration restrictions. Foreign workers, mostly from Indonesia, typically make up about 80 per cent of the workforce in Malaysian estates, which numbered about 437,000 at the start of the pandemic. Palm oil prices hit record highs this year due to the labour crunch, export caps at top producer Indonesia and the Russia-Ukraine war, but Malaysian producers are unable to take advantage of that, the MEOA said. “The sad reality is that Malaysia is missing the golden opportunity presented on a platter as we are not able to cope with the harvesting of all the oil palm bunches at the appropriate harvesting rounds set against the present limited labour force,” the MEOA said. In September, Malaysia approved the recruitment of 32,000 migrant workers for palm plantations, but the foreign labour has yet to enter the country due to permitting holdups. Click here to read... [14]

Sri Lanka releases seized Russian plane – media

Authorities in Sri Lanka have suspended a court order that barred a civilian aircraft leased by the airline Aeroflot from returning to Russia, the local newspaper News First reports. An Airbus A330-343 was detained in Colombo on June 2 at the request of Irish aircraft leasing company Celestial Aviation Trading Limited, with the court banning the plane from leaving the country until June 16. More than 200 passengers were removed from the flight and accommodated at a local hotel. According to the news outlet, the detention order was overturned after the Colombo High Commercial Court heard a motion filed by the Attorney General. Aeroflot has not confirmed the development yet, but reports state that another Aeroflot airliner, which arrived from Moscow, flew 275 Russians from Colombo on June 05, including the remaining passengers of the detained aircraft. Following the incident, Aeroflot announced the suspension of flights to Sri Lanka due to “the unreliability of the situation in terms of ensuring safe flights of the airline’s aircraft” to the country. The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned Ambassador of Sri Lanka Janitha Abeywickrama Liyanage last week, and issued a note of protest in connection with the detention of the plane. Click here to read... [15]

Strategic

Inflation, Political Division Put U.S. in a Pessimistic Mood, Poll Finds

Americans are deeply pessimistic about the U.S. economy and view the nation as sharply divided over its most important values, according to a new Wall Street Journal-NORC Poll. The findings are from a Journal survey conducted with NORC at the University of Chicago, a nonpartisan research organization that measures social attitudes. The survey found Americans in a sour mood and registering some of the highest levels of economic dissatisfaction in years. The pessimism extended beyond the current economy to include doubts about the nation’s political system, its role as a global leader and its ability to help most people achieve the American dream. Some 83% of respondents described the state of the economy as poor or not so good. More than one-third, or 35%, said they aren’t satisfied at all with their financial situation. That was the highest level of dissatisfaction since NORC began asking the question every few years starting in 1972 as part of the General Social Survey, though the poll’s 4-point margin of error means that new figures may not differ significantly from prior high and low points.Just over one quarter of respondents, 27%, said they have a good chance of improving their standard of living—a 20-point drop from last year—while just under half of respondents, 46%, said they don’t. Click here to read... [16]

White House split over Russia sanctions – Bloomberg

The Biden administration is split over how much further the US can push sanctions against Russia without undermining its own economy and Western unity, Bloomberg reports. According to the news agency, US President Joe Biden’s team has largely backed the sanctions plan Washington set in motion after Russia attacked Ukraine in late February. However, discussions on the matter have become more heated as the sanctions failed to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to change course, Bloomberg reported on June 01, citing sources familiar with the matter. Officials within the Biden team have reportedly formed two factions. One group that includes State Department and White House officials is said to be advocating for an even more hawkish stance, making the case for enforcing secondary sanctions. They believe that any opposition from US allies and partners can be overcome, according to Bloomberg. Another group, largely represented by Treasury Department officials, has reportedly raised concerns regarding the economic woes such actions would entail, especially considering that Americans are already suffering from high oil prices and inflation. Some are also said to be worried about the upcoming midterm election in November, and Democrats’ chances to hold their seats in Congress. Click here to read... [17]

China urges US to fulfill commitment after State Department adds back ‘not supporting Taiwan independence’ in fact sheet

China urges the US to fulfill President Joe Biden's statement with real actions that the US does not support "Taiwan independence," Zhao Lijian, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said at a press conference on June 06 in response to the US' move of adding back the statement "We do not support Taiwan independence" in its State Department fact sheet. The US State Department has changed its fact sheet again over the island of Taiwan, adding back the statement "We do not support Taiwan independence," it was found in the US State Department website on May 28, after it removed the line less than a month earlier. "History can't be tampered with, facts can't be denied, and right and wrong can't be distorted," Zhao said. "There is only one China in the world, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory. The government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China," Zhao said. The one-China principle is the consensus of the international community and a universally recognized basic norm governing international relations, and also a solemn commitment made by the US to China in the three China-US joint communiques, Zhao noted. Click here to read... [18]

NATO to name its ‘primary threat’

NATO’s new strategic concept will describe Russia as the “primary threat” to the bloc, while China will make its first appearance in the document, US Permanent Representative to NATO Julianne Smith said on June 01. Speaking at a Defense Writers Group event, Smith said that even prior to the launch of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine on February 24, “there was a deep appreciation across the alliance that the language on Russia from 2010 was sorely outdated and needed a significant upgrade.” NATO’s current strategic concept was published in 2010, four years before Crimea voted to split from Ukraine and join Russia following the 2014 coup in Kiev. The 35-page document says that “NATO-Russia cooperation is of strategic importance as it contributes to creating a common space of peace, stability and security.” “We are largely in agreement that Russia is the preeminent challenge, the primary threat that the NATO alliance is facing in this moment, and because of that, you’ll see a heavy emphasis on Russia right out of the gates at the top,” Smith said. She also revealed that the alliance’s members agree that “China, for the first time, needed to be part of the strategic concept.” In June of last year, NATO heads of states and governments included in the Brussels Summit Communiqué a paragraph that said: “China’s growing influence and international policies can present challenges that we need to address together as an Alliance.” Click here to read... [19]

No autopilot: China says Australia ties reset calls for ‘concrete actions’ from new government

The Chinese Foreign Minister has called on Canberra to take “concrete actions” to reset bilateral relations, as talk swirls about the way forward under new Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The “crux” of difficulties in relations in recent years was political forces in Australia that insisted on viewing China as a rival rather than a partner, framing its development as a threat rather than an opportunity, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said. Responding to reporters during a visit to Papua New Guinea on June 03, Wang said this mindset led to a “significant retrogression” in exchanges following years of “positive and pragmatic China policy” from Canberra, state news agency Xinhua reported. “There is no ‘autopilot’ mode for improving China-Australia relations. A reset requires concrete actions,” he said. “This meets the aspirations of the two peoples and the trend of our time.” Wang’s remarks come amid cautious optimism that the power shift in Canberra last month would offer a chance to mend ties after more than two years of acrimony, especially over trade disputes – with steep tariffs imposed on several Australian imports by No 1 trade partner China. Analysts expect the new Australian prime minister’s China policy to be less “provocative”, though Albanese has said the relationship with Beijing will remain “a difficult one”. Click here to read... [20]

Australia-China relations: Albanese reaches out to Beijing over fighter jet encounter

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the Australian government has reached out to Beijing to raise concerns over what he described as a “dangerous manoeuvre” between a Chinese fighter jet and an Australian surveillance plane over the South China Sea. According to Australia’s Department of Defence, a RAAF P-8 aircraft was undertaking routine maritime surveillance activity in the region on May 26 when it was intercepted by a Chinese J-16 fighter aircraft. The Chinese jet flew “very close to the side” of the P-8 aircraft, before cutting in front of the Australian plane and releasing a “bundle of chaff which contains small pieces of aluminium,” Defence Minister Richard Marles said on June 05. At a press conference in Perth on June 05, Albanese said Australia was concerned about the incident, which he claimed had represented a safety threat to the aircraft and its crew. The Australian leader said his government had reached out to China “through appropriate channels.”Last week, the Canadian military reported similar incidents to the Australian encounter, claiming in a statement that Chinese jets had repeatedly buzzed their surveillance planes flying through the region to enforce sanctions on North Korea. Click here to read... [21]

Can Joe Biden convince the US’ Middle East allies he still has their back?

Joe Biden’s planned Middle East trip next month will see him push to rebuild confidence in Washington’s long-standing security-for-energy partnership with its regional allies as he seeks to dispel murmurs of US disengagement, analysts said. In preparation for the president’s first trip to the region since taking office, the White House has sought to highlight the role the US has played in defending Israel and the Gulf Arab states from common rival Iran. But the US’ shift in focus towards containing China, and its indecisive response to drone attacks against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates by Iran-allied militias in recent years, has undermined confidence in its security commitments to the region. Negotiations in Vienna on the Iran nuclear deal have been deadlocked since March, raising the prospect of heightened tensions with Tehran, as the Gulf monarchies’ refusal to support the West’s isolation campaign against Russia by flooding international markets with oil further spotlighted widening cracks in their relationship with the US. “On the strategic front, the refusal of all US allies in the region to take sides in the war in Ukraine, despite US requests, was a clear signal that Washington is losing ground, allowing for others, including China, to become stronger at its expense.” Click here to read... [22]

June date set for China-sponsored Horn of Africa peace conference

China will convene a peace conference in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa later this month as it seeks to broker an end to the decades-long conflicts in the Horn of Africa. Although China is yet to make public the agenda, Sudan News Agency reported on June 02 that Khartoum had received an invitation from the Chinese government to attend the Horn of Africa peace conference on June 20-21. Chinese ambassador to Sudan Ma Xinmin, in a meeting with the Sudanese acting undersecretary for the foreign ministry Nadir Yousif Al-Tayeb, said the conference was an “initiative from China to enhance stability, development and good governance in this important region”. The Horn of Africa – which includes Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan, along with Kenya – has long been wracked by civil wars, Islamist insurgencies and military coups, most recently in Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia. In October, Sudan’s military seized power, raising instability and putting at risk Chinese investment interests, especially in the petroleum industry. And in Somalia, a resurgence of the jihadist fundamentalist group al-Shabab has led to terrorist attacks in Kenya, prompting Nairobi to send troops into the neighbouring country in a further threat to regional security. Click here to read... [23]

NRC: World’s 10 ‘most neglected’ refugee crises all in Africa

The world is paying too little attention to a slew of mass displacements of people across Africa, risking starvation deaths and prolonging conflicts, the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) has warned. “With the all-absorbing war in Europe’s Ukraine, I fear African suffering will be pushed further into the shadows,” the aid group’s chief Jan Egeland said in a statement published June 01. The countries with the most neglected crises according to the NRC are, in order: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Burkina Faso, Cameroon, South Sudan, Chad, Mali, Sudan, Nigeria, Burundi and Ethiopia. It is the first time that all 10 crises on the Council’s annual list – based on shortfalls in the international political response, media coverage, and the amount of aid pledged — are on the African continent. In the DRC, the most-neglected country on the list for the second year running, approximately 27 million people went hungry last year, equivalent to one-third of the population. Meanwhile, 5.5 million people were internally displaced and one million more fleeing abroad, the aid group said. But there were no high-level meetings or donor conferences about the DRC’s hunger crisis or the conflict in the country’s east, and only 44 percent of the $2bn requested by the UN for humanitarian aid was received. Click here to read... [24]

China launches mission to complete space station assembly

China on June 05 launched a new three-person mission to complete assembly work on its permanent orbiting space station. The Shenzhou 14 crew will spend six months on the Tiangong station, during which they will oversee the addition of two laboratory modules to join the main Tianhe living space that was launched in April 2021.Their spaceship blasted off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on the edge of the Gobi Desert at 10:44 a.m. (0244 GMT) atop the crewed space flight program’s workhorse Long March 2F rocket. Fifteen minutes later, it reached low Earth orbit and opened its solar panels, drawing applause from ground controllers in Jiuquan and Beijing. The launch was broadcast live on state television, indicating a rising level of confidence in the capabilities of the space program, which has been promoted as a sign of China's technological progress and global influence. Commander Chen Dong and fellow astronauts Liu Yang and CaiXuzhe will assemble the three-module structure joining the existing Tianhe with Wentian and Mengtian, due to arrive in July and October. Another cargo craft, the Tianzhou-3, remains docked with the station. The arrival of the new modules will “provide more stability, more powerful functions, more complete equipment,” said Chen, 43, who was a member of the Shenzhou 11 mission in 2016, at a press conference June 04. Click here to read... [25]

U.S., South Korea fire missiles to sea, matching North’s launches

The U.S. and South Korean militaries launched eight ballistic missiles into the sea June 06 in a show of force matching a North Korean missile display a day earlier that extended a provocative streak in weapons demonstrations. The allies’ live-fire exercise involved eight Army Tactical Missile System missiles – one American and seven South Korean – that were fired into South Korea’s eastern waters across 10 minutes following notifications for air and maritime safety, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff and U.S. Forces Korea. The tit-for-tat missile launches were aimed at demonstrating the ability to respond swiftly and accurately to North Korean attacks, the South Korean military said. The South’s military on June 05 detected North Korea firing eight short-range missiles over 35 minutes from at least four different locations, including from western and eastern coastal areas and two inland areas north of and near the capital, Pyongyang, in what appeared to be a single-day record for the country’s ballistic launches. It was North Korea’s 18th round of missile tests in 2022 alone — a streak that included the country’s first launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles in nearly five years. South Korean and U.S. officials also say North Korea is preparing to conduct its first nuclear test since September 2017. Click here to read... [26]

Saudi Arabia Moves Toward Eventual Ties With Israel

Saudi Arabia is engaging in serious talks with Israel to build business ties and create new security arrangements as the conservative Islamic kingdom senses a shift among its public in favor of establishing official ties with the majority Jewish state. Although Saudi Arabia doesn’t recognize Israel and has no diplomatic relations with its neighbor, the kingdom is expanding its secretive talks with Israeli leaders that could reshape Middle East politics and end decades of enmity between two of the region’s most influential nations. With the Biden administration’s help, Saudi Arabia and Israel are trying to broker an agreement that could give commercial planes expanded rights to fly from Israel over the kingdom and pave the way for Saudi Arabia to take full control of two strategic Red Sea islands, according to people familiar with the efforts. At the same time, Riyadh has allowed a series of Israeli businessmen to travel to Saudi Arabia as the two nations look to deepen their economic ties, according to people familiar with the visits. The Saudi government is making the moves as it sees support growing among its public for ties with Israel. Click here to read... [27]

Pakistani Taliban cease-fire frees Islamabad to guard Belt and Road

The indefinite extension of a cease-fire deal between Pakistan's government and the Pakistani Taliban this week has opened an opportunity for Islamabad to focus its resources on tackling threats posed by separatists targeting China's Belt and Road Initiative projects, analysts say. In the third round of negotiations mediated and hosted by the ruling Afghan Taliban in Kabul, Pakistani military officials and the leaders of the Pakistani Taliban, or Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), on May 30 agreed to extend their nearly monthlong cease-fire to continue talks toward ending a 14-year Islamist insurgency in Pakistan. Islamabad on June 01 was also sending a group of elders from tribal districts to Kabul to use their influence over the TTP leaders, according to sources. The TTP in 2014 shifted its hideouts over the border into Afghanistan, after a sustained Pakistani crackdown. Although Pakistan's political and military leadership is tight-lipped about the talks, fearing a backlash from liberal political parties and families of terrorism victims, Taliban government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid and TTP spokesman Muhammad Khurasani issued statements in mid-May regarding ongoing discussions with Islamabad about the cease-fire and peace. Experts say Islamabad is motivated to pursue the process because it is caught in a three-front situation, facing not only the TTP but also Baloch ethnic separatist groups targeting the BRI and ISIS-K -- the Islamic State group's regional affiliate. Click here to read... [28]

Kazakh President Tokayev promises reform after referendum win

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has pledged to make good on plans to push through democratic reforms in Kazakhstan, after a clear majority of voters approved constitutional amendments he had laid out in a referendum. The Central Election Commission said on June 06 that 77.18 percent of votes were in favour of the amendments, which decentralise decision-making in the oil-rich country and strip former President Nursultan Nazarbayev of his “national leader” status. Turnout was 68.06 percent. “We have shown that we are united in building the new, just Kazakhstan,” Tokayev said in an address on June 06. “We must review the legislation which allowed a small group of people to concentrate the country’s economic resources in their hands and enjoy preferential status.” Tokayev proposed the reform package after putting down a coup attempt amid deadly unrest in January and removing his former patron 81-year-old Nazarbayev and his relatives from important positions in the public sector. Prior to January’s crisis, Tokayev was widely seen as ruling in the shadow of Nazarbayev and his super-rich relatives. Even after stepping down as president, Nazarbayev retained the constitutional title of “elbasy”, or “leader of the nation” – a role that afforded him influence over policymaking regardless of his formal position. The new constitution will exclude that status. Click here to read... [29]

Mexico’s Leader to Skip Regional Summit After U.S. Snubs Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela

The Biden administration has excluded Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela from a key regional summit this week, said U.S. administration officials, prompting Mexico’s leader to back out and send his foreign minister instead.After weeks of wrangling over the issue amid threats of country boycotts, the administration excluded the three autocracies due to U.S. concerns over human rights and lack of democratic institutions in those countries, the officials said. The regional summit, scheduled for June 6-10 in Los Angeles, is expected to focus on migration and economic issues. “The President’s principal position is that we do not believe that dictators should be invited,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who had warned he wouldn’t attend the summit if Cuba and others were excluded, said he would skip it. The Mexican leader said he had a good relationship with Mr. Biden and that he planned to visit the White House in July. The leaders of Bolivia, Guatemala, Honduras and St. Vincent and the Grenadines also said they wouldn’t attend. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro had also threatened not to go, but later opted to attend. The political rift between the U.S. and some Latin American leaders may hurt U.S. efforts to agree on a regional plan to fight irregular immigration toward the U.S. Click here to read... [30]

Health

G20 countries to discuss global funding scheme to face future pandemic

Health leaders from Group of Twenty (G20) countries will talk about mobilizing financial resources for future pandemic prevention, preparedness and response as an effort to build a strong and resilient global health system from the threat of future health disasters. The discussion will be made during the two-day second Health Working Group (HWG) meeting on June 6-7 in Lombok, Indonesia's West Nusa Tenggara province. "We will focus on the aspects coordination, ability and rapid response to the changing situation of diseases, as well as mitigation plan to face other possible pandemics in the future," spokesperson of Indonesia's Health Ministry Siti Nadia Tarmizi said on Monday in a press statement. Tarmizi said that currently there had been several financing frameworks initiated by the World Bank and WHO, namely joint finance and health taskforce, as well as the Financial Intermediary Fund. "We hope that the HWG meeting can conclude a global collective action needed to increase investment and support from various parties to strengthen the capacity of developing countries to prevent, prepare, and respond to the next possible pandemic," she said. Click here to read... [31]

Some people still haven’t caught Covid-19. Why?

The infections became more frequent and hit closer and closer to home. Their friends contracted the novel coronavirus, and sometimes their children, grandparents and most of their colleagues too. In recent months it seemed to be only a matter of time before the luck of those so far spared from Covid-19 finally runs out. But some people even made it through the wave of infections – now subsiding – caused by the highly transmissible Omicron variant without contracting Covid-19. Still others wonder if they had an asymptomatic infection that wasn’t detected, for instance before testing was widely available. Or maybe they did have symptoms but tested negative because the sample was collected improperly or the timing was inopportune. Scientific attempts at an explanation go deeper, but there’s no single definitive answer as to why some people still haven’t caught Covid. A combination of factors could be the reason. First of all, it’s important to bear in mind that a significant number of Covid infections go largely or completely unnoticed. In a systematic review and meta-analysis published late last year in JAMA Network Open (Journal of the American Medical Association), the authors noted that about 40 per cent of people with a confirmed Covid diagnosis were asymptomatic at the time of the test. The finding was based on 95 international studies involving nearly 30 million people. Click here to read... [32]