VIF News Digest: International Developments (24-30 Nov 2018)
USA
Trump's trade war: Stakes are high at G20 summit
30 Nov 2018

Hopes that the meeting could open the way for a deal over trade between the two countries have been undermined by recent threats by the US president. Only days before the summit in Argentina, President Trump said current tariff levels on $200 bn (£157bn) of Chinese imports would rise as planned. He also threatened tariffs on $267 bn of other Chinese exports to the US. Then, just before taking off for Argentina, President Trump told reporters at the White House that while China was interested in striking a deal, "I don't know if I want to do it" and "I like the deal we have now".
The stage could now be set for a possible escalation of the trade war between the two nations. Click here to read...

Trump says US very close to China trade deal
30 Nov 2018

The US is very close to a trade deal with China, President Donald Trump has said, but remained noncommittal to its final outcome ahead of his meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Argentina on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit.

Trump's remarks came as he prepared to depart for the summit. Trade and tariffs have been topics of increasing tension between the US and China.

The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on more than $250 bn worth of Chinese imports. More than $50 bn of that total is subject to a 25 percent duty. Another $200 bn has been hit with a 10 percent tariff with plans to increase that to 25 percent on January 1. Trump has also repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on all remaining imports from China. Click here to read...

Government shutdown looms as Trump demands $5 bn for border wall
29 Nov 20018

The United States is once again under the threat of a partial government shutdown as politicians in both parties use a funding deadline as an opportunity to force through major legislative goals.

Although some bills have been passed, much of the US government is still funded via a short-term continuing resolution, which will expire on 7 December. These areas include homeland security, the Department of Justice and the IRS. Donald Trump has insisted that any government funding deal must include at least $5 bn for a wall along the US border with Mexico. It is not the first time the president has threatened to shut down the government. Click here to read...

Trump dismisses US Govt. report on climate threat
29 Nov 2018

President Donald Trump dismissed a landmark report compiled by 13 federal agencies detailing how damage from global warming is intensifying throughout the country, saying that he is not among the "believers" who see climate change as a pressing problem. The comments marked Mr Trump's most extensive yet on why he disagrees with his own government's analysis, which found that climate change poses a severe threat to the health of Americans, as well as to the country's infrastructure, economy and natural resources.

The findings - unequivocal, urgent and alarming - are at odds with the Trump administration's rollback of environmental regulations and absence of any climate action policy. Click here to read...

In abrupt switch, Trump cancels Putin meeting, cites Ukraine crisis
29 Nov 2018

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday abruptly canceled a planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Argentina, registering his disapproval of Russia's treatment of Ukraine and casting new uncertainty over U.S.-Russian ties. Trump said he pulled out due to tensions over Russian forces opening fire on Ukrainian navy boats and then seizing them and their crew on Sunday near Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

His decision also comes as a federal investigation into his 2016 election campaign's ties to Russia is intensifying. Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty on Thursday to lying to Congress about a proposed Trump real estate project in Russia. Click here to read...

"We will be in Moscow": Trump's 30-year quest to do business in Russia
20 Nov 2018

It was a dream born in the 1980s: a gleaming Trump Tower in the heart of Soviet Moscow. For Donald Trump, that vision never died, even as he launched a presidential campaign and moved toward clinching the Republican Party nomination in 2016.

On Thursday, his former attorney Michael Cohen told a federal judge that Trump was pursuing a deal to build a Trump Tower in Moscow throughout the first half of 2016 - the very time the candidate was stepping out on the world stage as a political figure and breaking with the GOP by praising Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin.

Trump's attempt that year to expand his brand into Moscow capped a 30-year-long effort by the celebrity mogul to do business in Russia. His refusal to give up that ambition as he was campaigning for the White House now colors his public embrace of Putin, whose help Cohen sought for the project. Again and again, Trump pursued his Russia project, traveling to Moscow and unveiling four ultimately unsuccessful plans to put his name on a building in the Russian capital before he announced he would run for president. Click here to read...

Trump's new Russia deal defense: Just business as usual
30 Nov 2018

President Donald Trump’s story about his business pursuits in Russia has shifted again. As a candidate and afterward, Trump said repeatedly that he didn’t have any business dealings with Russia. “I have no dealings with Russia,” he said shortly before his inauguration in 2017. “I have no deals that could happen in Russia, because we’ve stayed away.”

The truth was more complicated than Trump suggested: He had long relied on Russian investors for projects in other parts of the world, and long sought to develop real estate in Russia. And now, with former Trump fixer Michael Cohen having pleaded guilty to lying to Congress about efforts to develop a Trump Tower project in Moscow, the president has added a new layer to his take, arguing that it would be perfectly fine for him to have pursued the Oval Office and a high-end business opportunity in Russia at the same time.

“We were thinking about building a building,” he told reporters at the White House on Thursday. “I decided ultimately not to do it. There would have been nothing wrong if I did do it.” Click here to read...

RUSSIA

Angela Merkel sidesteps military aid to Ukraine
29 Nov 2018

Angela Merkel has reiterated Germany's support for Ukraine in the ongoing standoff between Russia and Ukraine over three ships seized on Sunday, though she did not threaten any further action against Russia, either in terms of military aid or sanctions. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko took to Germany's Bild newspaper to ask Merkel to send navy ships to the Sea of Azov "to provide security," and accused Russia of wanting "nothing less than to occupy the sea."

Speaking at the third German-Ukrainian Economic Forum on Thursday, the German chancellor did not offer any direct answer to Poroshenko's request. Instead, the chancellor reaffirmed Germany's commitment to Ukraine, and put the blame for the current crisis squarely on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
She pointed out that Russia and Ukraine agreed a shipping treaty in 2003 that grants both countries full use of the Kerch Strait leading into the Sea of Azov, although both sides also have rights of inspection in the waters. A bridge that Russia built to the annexed Crimean Peninsula has impeded the free movement of ships, Merkel said. Click here to read...

Sea becomes new front in Russia’s war
30 Nov 2018

It finally happened. After its stealth invasion of Crimea in 2014, followed by more than four years of covert combat in the eastern Donbas, Russia let its mask drop in launching an open and unprovoked act of war against Ukraine. Russian naval forces, sailing under their official colors on Nov. 25, attacked and seized three Ukrainian naval vessels in the Black Sea, injuring at least three Ukrainian sailors, capturing 24, and jailing them on absurd charges: violating the borders of the Russian Federation.

The incident, which took place in Ukrainian territorial waters near Kremlin-occupied Crimea and in international waters, has opened a new, maritime front in Russia’s war against Ukraine. For the first time in its 26-year history, Ukraine has officially moved to war footing, imposing martial law in 10 regions for 30 days. Meanwhile, Russia has rapidly concentrated more troops and weapons on land and at sea all around Ukraine, Ukraine’s military says. Click here to read...

Business leaders hail Russia's booming energy ties with China
29 Nov 2018

As Russia's relationships with the West become increasingly fragile amid ongoing economic sanctions, Moscow continues to look towards China for economic opportunities — and energy is one space where that relationship is flourishing. "The relations between the Russian Federation and People's Republic of China are on the rise," President Vladimir Putin said in a welcome message at a Russian-Chinese Energy Forum in Beijing on Thursday. "An important part of these relations is energy cooperation which has lately received significant development."

Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping organized the first Russian-Chinese energy forum during their meeting in June 2018, a meeting where the leaders vowed to pursue economic initiatives and to oppose the trade protectionism promoted by Donald Trump. Click here to read...

Oil prices rally as Russia may be joining the cuts
29 Nov 2018

Just a few hours after WTI Crude dipped below $50, oil prices wiped out losses and started climbing on Thursday after reports that Russia has conceded that it needs to reduce oil production and join a new Saudi-led OPEC cut to balance the market. At 10:10 a.m. EDT on Thursday, WTI Crude rallied 2.05 percent at $51.32, while Brent Crude was up 1.35 percent at $59.89.

Earlier in the day WTI Crude had breached the $50 support level for the first time in more than a year, following yet another U.S. crude inventory build that the EIA reported on Wednesday. Then came out a report by Reuters that Russia has started to concede that it needs to join a new Saudi-led oil production cut, but is still bargaining with its key OPEC partner over how much, how fast, and for how long it would potentially reduce its oil output.

Analysts believe that Russia agreeing to reduce production would be crucial for the OPEC/non-OPEC group to hammer out an agreement to cut. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih has already said that while the Saudis are going to do whatever it takes to stabilize the oil market, they can’t and won’t do it alone without a collective decision from the OPEC and non-OPEC deal participants. Click here to read...

AFRICA

Israel says will renew ties with chad after Presidential visit: Reuters
27 November 2018

Israel said on Tuesday that it and Chad would resume relations, severed in 1972, after the central African country’s President Idriss Deby made a surprise visit to Jerusalem this week.

After Deby wound up his two-day visit, Israel said in a statement that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would “visit Chad soon and announce, with the Chadian president, the renewal of ties”. No date was given.

Chad is a Muslim-majority country, and most Muslim or Arab countries do not have formal ties with Israel. Click here to read...

John Magufuli: Tanzania prefers 'condition-free' Chinese aid - BBC News
27 November 2018

Mr. Magufuli has been under intense pressure from Western nations over his controversial policies. On 15 November, Denmark said it had suspended $9.8 m (£7.5 m) in aid because of ‘unacceptable homophobic comments’ by a Tanzanian politician. China has become a major investor in Africa, challenging Western influence on the continent. It has promised to spend $60 bn in investment, aid and loans in Africa over the next three years, mostly in infrastructure development. "The thing that makes you happy about their aid is that it is not tied to any conditions. When they decide to give you, they just give you," Mr. Magufuli said. He was speaking at the opening of a library at the main university in the commercial capital, Dar es Salaam. China assisted in building the $40.6 m library.

"They have helped us in a lot of other areas of development," Mr. Magufuli said, adding that the two nations would continue strengthening ties. The European Union (EU) is currently the East African state's biggest development partner, giving aid of more than $88 m annually. The EU announced earlier this month that it was reviewing its policy towards Tanzania because of concerns about the rights of gay people and restrictions on civil society groups. Click here to read...

Ethiopia PM Meets Opposition Parties, promises fair elections: Reuters
27 November 2018

Ethiopia's prime minister met members of 81 opposition parties on Tuesday to discuss ways of reforming the electoral system, his office said, as he pressed on with promises to open up a political arena dominated by his coalition.

Abiy Ahmed has turned national politics on its head since coming to power in April by welcoming back exiled opposition and separatist groups, releasing prisoners and appointing a formerly jailed dissident as head of the election board.

The meeting focused "on highlighting the reforms required to ensure the upcoming election is free & fair, and the shared responsibilities of all," his office said on Twitter. There was no immediate comment from opposition groups. Click here to read...

New report accuses Uganda of sending arms to South Sudan: VOA
29 November 2018

A new report accuses Uganda of diverting European weapons into South Sudan, circumventing a European Union arms embargo on the conflict-ridden country. The 101-page report by London-based Conflict Armament Research says the Ugandan government purchased arms and ammunition from at least three EU members — Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovakia — that were then sent to South Sudan's military and armed allies in Sudan.

Ugandan government spokesman Ofwono Opondo did not respond to repeated calls or a text message requesting an interview from VOA's South Sudan in Focus. Click here to read...

DR Congo Ebola outbreak second largest in history: WHO – Aljazeera
30 November 2018

The Democratic Republic of Congo's deadly Ebola outbreak is now the second largest in history, behind the devastating West Africa outbreak that killed thousands a few years ago, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Dr Peter Salama, WHO's emergencies chief, called it a "sad toll" as DR Congo's health ministry announced the number of cases has reached 426.That includes 379 confirmed cases and 47 probable ones.

So far this outbreak, declared on August 1, has caused 198 confirmed deaths, DR Congo's health ministry said. The latest outbreak is the tenth in DR Congo since Ebola was first detected there in 1976. The crisis is centred around the restive eastern city of Beni in North Kivu, a region which has been blighted by armed conflict, which has hampered efforts to curb the outbreak. Click here to read...

Madagascar President concedes defeat in polls: Reuters
1 December 2018

Hery Rajaonarimampianina will not take part in the second round, due on 19 December. The court rejected his request to have the election canceled. Madagascar’s president, Hery Rajaonarimampianina, conceded defeat in his bid for a second term after managing a distant third in the first round of voting in the island’s presidential vote. Rajaonarimampianina got just 8.82 % in the November first round, the High Constitutional Court said on Wednesday, behind former presidents Marc Ravalomanana, who got 35.35 %, and Andry Rajoelina, who got 39.23 %. He will not take part in the second round, due on 19 December. The court rejected his request to have the election canceled. Click here to read...

IMF agrees new loan program for Sierra Leone: Reuters
1 December 2018

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) board has approved a new $172 million loan program for Sierra Leone to help the West African country combat rising inflation and lackluster economic growth. The 43-month agreement follows a previous $240 million financing plan that was suspended in February over foot-dragging on reforms such as taxing luxury car imports, and removing subsidies on fuel and rice.

“The objectives of the previous program remain appropriate, but circumstances call for a recalibration,” the IMF said in statement. Click here to read...

Germany seeks private funds for climate projects in Africa, elsewhere: Newspaper: Reuters
2 December 2018

Germany will unveil an initiative at U.N. talks on climate change this week to attract more private investment in projects in Africa and elsewhere, Development Minister Gerd Mueller said. Mueller told the RND newspaper network that Germany would “send a strong signal” at the U.N. climate conference in Katowice, Poland with its Alliance for Development and Climate initiative and a pledge to spend an additional 1.5 billion euros (1.7 bn) on climate protection.

Expectations are muted for this week’s meetings given divisions within Europe, and tension between the United States and China. Click here to read...

Burundi warned after ex-President Buyoya arrest warrant: BBC News
2 December 2018

The African Union (AU) has warned Burundi against moves to jeopardise peace efforts after an international arrest warrant was issued for ex-leader Pierre Buyoya and 16 other officials. They are accused of being behind the 1993 assassination of the country's first elected Hutu president.

The killing of Melchior Ndadaye triggered a brutal ethnic civil war. Mr Buyoya, an ethnic Tutsi, says it is a ploy to stir up divisions and shift attention from the current crisis. More than 300,000 people died in a 12-year civil war between the minority Tutsi-dominated army and mainly Hutu rebel groups. Click here to read...

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