Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 17 January 2022 - 23 January 2022

Economic

Pandemic causing 'nearly insurmountable' education losses globally: UNICEF

School closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic have caused "nearly insurmountable" losses in education among children around the world, UNICEF said on Jan 24. More than 616 million students are still being affected by full or partial school closures, the United Nations children's agency said. In many countries, in addition to depriving millions of children of the chance to acquire basic skills, these disruptions have affected students' mental health, put them at greater risk of abuse and prevented many from having access to "a regular source of nutrition", UNICEF added. "Quite simply, we are looking at a nearly insurmountable scale of loss to children's schooling," said UNICEF chief of education Robert Jenkins in a statement, almost two years into the pandemic. And "just reopening schools is not enough" he added, calling for "intensive support to recover lost education". UNICEF reported that "learning losses to school closures have left up to 70 per cent of 10-year-olds unable to read or understand a simple text, up from 53 per cent pre-pandemic" in countries with low and middle income. Rich countries are far from being spared. In the United States, learning losses have been observed in several states, including Texas, California and Maryland, said UNICEF. Click here to read... [2]

China's Xi opposes global monetary policy U-turn in Davos talk

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Jan 17 urged major countries to work together to mitigate persistent economic risks from COVID-19, the same day fresh data showed waning momentum in the world's No. 2 economy.Addressing the World Economic Forum virtually, Xi also reiterated his warning against a "Cold War mentality" that he said would undermine efforts to solve shared problems -- a thinly veiled jab at the U.S. and its allies. A key segment of his remarks focused on macroeconomic policy and a shift toward monetary tightening. "The pandemic is proving a protracted one, resurging with more variants and spreading faster than before," Xi told the Davos Agenda meetings via video link. "If major economies slam on the brakes or take a U-turn in their monetary policies, there would be serious negative spill-over. They would present challenges to global economic and financial stability and developing countries would bear the brunt of it."Amid the pandemic, now in its third year, countries around the world loosened monetary policy to ensure market liquidity and help sustain livelihoods. But this has contributed to rising inflation brought about by supply disruptions and an energy crunch. This poses headwinds for China, which is confronting sporadic COVID-19 outbreaks and a real estate downturn. Click here to read... [3]

US-Japan alliance restricting vital tech exports to China risks ‘major impact’ on trade, supply chains

An alliance between the United States and Japan to ban exports of sensitive technology to China risks upending trade ties between Beijing and Tokyo and would be “complex” to implement, analysts say, as the global battle for tech supremacy intensifies. Japan and the US are mulling the establishment of a multilateral framework to regulate the trade of advanced technology, which includes semiconductor manufacturing equipment, quantum cryptography and artificial intelligence, according to a report by Japan’s Yomiuri newspaper earlier this month, citing unidentified sources. The two countries are also planning to work with allies in Europe on the issue amid heightened concern about Beijing’s military-civil fusion strategy. The Japanese embassy in Beijing declined to comment on the report. Lu Xiang, a research fellow in US studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said it was difficult to know what form the restrictions might take, but discussions between the US, Europe and Japan would be a certainty this year. Professor Tomoo Marukawa, an expert on China’s economy at the University of Tokyo’s Institute of Social Science, said Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida would tread carefully on the issue of export controls. Click here to read... [4]

Winter Olympics Sponsors Caught Between Beijing, U.S.

With less than two weeks to go before the start of the Winter Games in Beijing, several Olympics sponsors are skipping what is usually an Olympics-themed advertising blitz. Sponsors of the 2022 Winter Games are caught in a billion-dollar bind this year: U.S. officials, along with some lawmakers from other Western countries and some human-rights activists, have said Beijing’s treatment of mostly Muslim minorities in Xinjiang amounts to a form of genocide. Beijing denies the allegations and has protested what it calls attempts to politicize the Games. It has also increasingly punished companies it feels have waded into the issue—through public criticism, regulatory scrutiny and the encouragement of consumer boycotts in what has become a crucial market for many brands. “Sponsors are trying to weather the storm,” said Rick Burton, who was chief marketing officer for the U.S. Olympic Committee at the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics. The companies have made huge investments in the sponsorship deals and risk missing the global marketing opportunities that money bought them, he said, but “they have businesses to operate in China.” The relatively quiet marketing ahead of the games is especially noticeable for the 13 top-tier Olympic sponsors, including Visa, P&G and Coca-Cola. Click here to read... [5]

China’s duty-free market poised to grow fourfold to US$40 billion by 2025, but travel restrictions could stand in the way

China’s duty-free market is forecast to grow fourfold to 258 billion Yuan (US$40 billion) in 2025, a new report says, as the government looks to boost domestic consumption to shore up the economy. The duty-free market in China was estimated to be worth 66-billion-yuan last year, according to a report by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) published on Jan 22. But it is poised to quadruple in value in three years’ time, provided Beijing clears strict quarantine mandates for international travel by late this year. The report added the island province of Hainan, which has been declared a free-trade port and a duty-free hub, will account for half of the domestic duty-free market by 2025. Chinese consumers spent more than 180 billion Yuan overseas on duty-free products in 2019, accounting for 40 per cent of total global duty-free sales. But China’s duty-free market only accounted for 8 per cent of total global duty-free sales, showing the limitations of its offerings compared to the massive spending power of its consumers. Beijing is seeking to address this and turn the focus of economic growth in the future to domestic consumption through its so-called dual circulation strategy. Click here to read... [6]

China’s Guangdong GDP for 2021 set to top that of South Korea and most other countries

The economy of China’s southern manufacturing powerhouse of Guangdong likely surpassed that of South Korea for the first time in 2021, and if the provincial economy were that of a country, it would rank in the top 10 globally, according to official local data. China’s largest regional economy has also doubled down on the nation’s “common prosperity” strategy, which calls for a more even distribution of wealth. Guangdong’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 8 per cent from a year earlier to 12.4 trillion Yuan last year, or US$1.92 trillion based on the official annual average exchange rate, according to the local government’s annual work report, which was released in full on the province’s official website on Monday. That means Guangdong’s annual economic size could be larger than the expected US$1.82 trillion of South Korea, and only moderately lower than the estimated US$2 trillion of Canada, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. However, the province has long faced criticism about its uneven distribution of wealth, as most of its economic output stems from the Pearl River Delta region. The megacities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen have long contributed to nearly half of the province’s GDP. Click here to read... [7]

Agile Group becomes latest debt-ridden Chinese developer to be rescued by state-owned company

State-backed companies are coming to the rescue of embattled Chinese developers pushed to the edge of financial ruin by Beijing’s “three red lines” borrowing restrictions. Agile Group, one of the country’s top 20 home sellers, said it will sell its 26.7 per cent stake in a Guangzhou property joint venture for 1.84 billion Yuan (US$300 million) to a unit of China Overseas Land & Investment (Coli). Hong Kong-listed Coli is a property arm of China State Construction Engineering, which is directly owned by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. The Guangzhou-based developer said the deal “would [help] the group to meet its working capital requirements and future business development.” It comes after Shimao Group announced on Jan 21 it had sold land in Shanghai to a company owned by the Shanghai municipal government. Agile is facing a growing pile of debts including US$1.1 billion in offshore notes due this year. The three red lines, outlined by the central government in August 2020, define strict thresholds on borrowing. They are a liability-to-asset ratio excluding advance receipts of less than 70 per cent, a net debt-to-equity ratio of less than 100 per cent and cash to short-term debt ratio of one. Click here to read... [8]

Space powers take aim at moon in quest for resources and glory

The U.S., China, Russia, India, Japan and South Korea are all planning lunar missions in 2022 and beyond. These moon-shots lay bare a growing cosmic competition for resources, technological superiority and national glory, with the potential to amplify rising international political tensions on Earth. The missions also require huge investments that look even more onerous as COVID-19 exacts its economic toll. The defining rivalry, as on Earth, looks to be between Washington and Beijing. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst and outer space specialist at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), stressed the U.S. and China "are not yet in a space race" on current timetables. But he suggested that could change if America's plans slip further behind schedule and China accelerates its own, seeing "a window of opportunity to steal the U.S. thunder." "There would be huge prestige for China if it beats the U.S. back to the moon," Davis said, referring to Washington's success in planting its flag on the lunar surface back in 1969.For now, the U.S. remains ahead. NASA's Artemis program is set for its maiden liftoff this year, with a giant Space Launch System rocket due to hoist an uncrewed Orion spacecraft into lunar orbit. Click here to read... [9]

Meta Unveils New AI Supercomputer

Meta Platforms Inc. said Jan 24 that its research team built a new artificial intelligence supercomputer that the company maintains will soon be the fastest in the world. The supercomputer, the AI Research Super Cluster, was the result of nearly two years of work, often conducted remotely during the height of the pandemic, and led by the Facebook parent’s AI and infrastructure teams. Several hundred people, including researchers from partners Nvidia Inc., Penguin Computing Inc. and Pure Storage Inc., were involved in the project, the company said. Meta, which announced the news in a blog post Jan 24, said its research team currently is using the supercomputer to train AI models in natural-language processing and computer vision for research. The aim is to boost capabilities to one day train models with more than a trillion parameters on data sets as large as an exabyte, which is roughly equivalent to 36,000 years of high-quality video. Meta’s AI supercomputer houses 6,080 Nvidia graphics-processing units, putting it fifth among the fastest supercomputers in the world, according to Meta. By mid-summer, when the AI Research Super Cluster is fully built, it will house some 16,000 GPUs, becoming the fastest AI supercomputer in the world, Meta said. Click here to read... [10]

Microsoft bets US$75 billion that gaming will be the new social media

Microsoft was positioning itself as one of the pioneers of the metaverse even before its US$75 billion deal to buy online gaming giant Activision Blizzard. In the days after Mark Zuckerberg rebranded Facebook last October as Meta with his near movie-length promotional film about the potential for virtual worlds, Microsoft announced that users of its Teams online meetings app would be able to turn themselves into avatars – in a first step towards getting users used to virtual interaction. If that was an incremental move, the Activision deal is something very different. Assuming it is permitted by the US competition authorities, it will mean that the Xbox giant controls many of the best known virtual worlds that already exist online, including Call of Duty, World of Warcraft and Starcraft – adding to the two it has already, Minecraft and Altspace VR. It is the latest example of a land grab for space by some of the world’s biggest companies in the coming 3D version of the internet. Although Zuckerberg talks about how we will be able to use virtual reality (VR) headsets and augmented reality (AR) glasses to work, entertain and educate in this new immersive online space, defining the metaverse is difficult. It’s difficult to define something that is neither full nor will ever be finished. Click here to read... [11]

India woos global chipmakers again, this time with $10bn package

India has rolled out the red carpet for global chipmakers with 760 billion rupees ($10.2 billion) in incentives as Prime Minister Narendra Modi makes a push to establish the country as a high-tech production hub. The program was approved by Modi's cabinet Dec. 15 and began accepting applicants on Jan. 1 as India, like many other countries, intensifies efforts to bolster domestic supplies of the critical industrial component. The new package covers up to half the initial costs of setting up chip making hubs in the country, including those for front-end processes involving wafer fabrication. The Indian government will cooperate with state authorities to build high-tech industrial parks equipped with clean water, abundant power and logistics infrastructure. In addition, India will provide assistance for back-end chip facilities, which handle assembly and testing. It also will support chip-design startups and nurture more talent to build a comprehensive semiconductor industry in the country. This is not India's first attempt at attracting top chipmakers, but few players expressed strong interest in the past. One option for the country this time may be to focus first on back-end processes, so it can build a rapport with industry leaders before diving into the more technologically sophisticated front-end processes. Click here to read... [12]

South Korea inks deal to lend Egypt $1bn for infrastructure

Seoul has signed a deal to lend Egypt up to $1 billion for infrastructure development, paving the way for South Korean companies to join railway, subway and marine desalination projects in the African nation. The money will go toward not only large-scale infrastructure but also renewable energy as well as science and technology education. Under the terms, Egypt can borrow $1 billion from Seoul's Economic Development Cooperation Fund with almost zero interest. It would have decades to make repayments. In a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Moon said his government wanted to support the entry of South Korean plant and construction companies into Egypt's transportation and water projects, saying they bring "world-class technology and excellent reputations." The Egyptian leader said his country aims to learn from South Korea's experience in rising from an underdeveloped country into an advanced one. Moon is on the last leg of a three-country trip that also took him to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Executives from Hanwha Defense, Hyundai Rotem, Samsung Electronics, Myoungshin Industry and Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction are travelling with him. Click here to read... [13]

Turky's key oil pipeline restarts after explosion: BOTAS

Turkiye's state pipeline operator BOTAS announced on Jan 19 that crude oil flow through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has resumed after an explosion in the country’s south-eastern Kahramanmaras province. The 1,876-kilometer-long key pipeline, which carries crude oil from northern Iraq for export from Turkey’s southern port of Ceyhan, was knocked offline by an explosion late on Jan 18 for "unknown" reasons. The fire which erupted at the 511th kilometre of the pipeline caused a halt in oil flow. The traffic between Kahramanmaras and neighbouring Gaziantep province was also stopped for a few hours. Soon after the explosion, BOTAS said the reason for the explosion was unknown and the valves closest to the incident had been turned off for security reasons. In a statement on Jan 19, BOTAS said the pipeline was reopened after "all necessary measures were taken" and the fire was extinguished. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is Iraq's largest crude oil export line which had been exposed to intensive attacks by the Daesh terror group. An attack in 2014 caused a pipeline closure on the Iraqi side. Jan 18's explosion at the key pipeline between Turkey and Iraq comes at a time when global oil markets are already struggling with supply disruptions over geopolitical tensions in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia. Click here to read... [14]

China puts 4 million barrels of Iranian oil into state reserves--source, Vortexa

China has offloaded nearly four million barrels of Iranian crude oil into state reserve tanks in the southern port city of Zhanjiang over the past few weeks, a trade source and ship tracking specialist Vortexa Analytics said on Jan 20. The move comes as world powers are locked in tough negotiations with Iran to revive a 2015 nuclear deal that will include the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil. The former Trump administration pulled out of the deal and re-imposed sanctions. Iran, which sits on the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves, relies heavily on oil revenue, but sanctions have prevented it from pumping at anywhere near capacity since 2018. The refilling of China’s strategic petroleum reserves also comes ahead of a plan to release oil from its emergency stockpile in a rare coordination with the United States to help cool global oil prices which hit a seven-year high this week. China has previously been importing Iranian oil under the radar, with the shipments not reflected in official customs data as buyers fear invoking U.S. sanctions. “There were reports of importing Iranian crude earlier - but hush-hush somewhat. Now I think the Chinese are testing openly to see U.S. response,” said Tilak Doshi, managing director of Doshi Consulting in Singapore. Click here to read... [15]

Strategic

Pentagon Places Hundreds of Troops on Standby for Deployment to Eastern Europe in Standoff With Russia

The U.S. military has ordered several hundred U.S. troops on standby to potentially deploy to Eastern Europe amid heightened tensions over Russia’s presence near Ukraine’s border, in what amounts to an escalation towards U.S. military involvement, U.S. officials said. The “prepare to deploy orders” were issued to troops stationed at several U.S.-based installations, the officials said. The Pentagon hasn’t said under which circumstances the U.S. would deploy the troops, but officials said it could send a signal to Russia that the U.S. would quickly bolster the defences of NATO allies in the event of a Russian incursion into Ukraine. The troops could also be on standby should the U.S. decide they are needed to evacuate tens of thousands of Americans now residing in Ukraine, the officials said. The forces won’t be authorized to enter Ukraine, U.S. officials said, but they could be used to support any such contingency. Many of the forces must be prepared to move within 18 to 36 hours, U.S. officials said. Click here to read... [16]

U.S., Russia Agree to Keep Negotiating to Defuse Ukraine Crisis

Washington and Moscow on Jan 21 agreed to continue talks triggered by Russia’s military buildup near the Ukrainian border, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying the U.S. would formally address the Kremlin’s concerns that Western powers threaten Russian security and its demands regarding the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Mr. Blinken, after meeting his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, said that the U.S. would also submit its own security proposals and that the two sides planned to meet again. In Washington later, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki indicated the U.S. wouldn’t concede to the Kremlin’s key demand that Ukraine be forbidden to join the NATO alliance. “We’ve been very clear about what we are not negotiating on, which is the sovereignty of Ukraine, which is this question that is continuously raised about Ukraine’s right to pursue joining NATO,” she said. “That’s up to NATO countries to make that decision.” Mr. Blinken said after meeting Mr. Lavrov, “There is no trade space there—none.” President Biden will meet with his national-security team this weekend at Camp David, Ms. Psaki said, adding that he was open to another summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Click here to read... [17]

Houthi missiles target Saudi Arabia and UAE as escalation grows

The United Arab Emirates says it intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles over Abu Dhabi that were fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the latest escalation in Yemen’s long-running war. Jan 24’s attack came a week after another Houthi drone-and-missile attack on Abu Dhabi killed three civilians.“The remnants of the intercepted ballistic missiles fell in separate areas around Abu Dhabi,” the UAE defence ministry said in a statement in state-run WAM news agency on Jan 24, adding that it “is ready to deal with any threats and … takes all necessary measures to protect the state”. In Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, state media said late on Jan 23 that a Houthi ballistic missile had fallen in the kingdom’s south, injuring two residents – a Bangladeshi and a Sudanese citizen – and damaging workshops and vehicles in an industrial area. Another missile was intercepted and destroyed over Dhahram al-Janub, according to a coalition statement. The Houthis said they targeted Abu Dhabi’s Dhafra airbase as well as “vital and important” locations in the Dubai area, with military spokesperson Yahya Saree saying in a televised statement that the attack had “achieved its objectives with high accuracy”. UAE authorities did not report an attack on Dubai. Click here to read... [18]

Nuclear deal unlikely unless Iran releases US prisoners: Report

The United States is unlikely to strike a deal with Iran to save the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement unless Tehran releases four US citizens Washington says it is holding hostage, the lead US nuclear negotiator told the Reuters news agency on Jan 23.US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley repeated the long-held US position that the issue of the four people held in Iran is separate from the nuclear negotiations. He moved a step closer, however, to saying that their release was a precondition for a nuclear agreement. “They’re separate and we’re pursuing both of them. But I will say it is very hard for us to imagine getting back into the nuclear deal while four innocent Americans are being held hostage by Iran,” Malley told Reuters in an interview. “So even as we’re conducting talks with Iran indirectly on the nuclear file we are conducting, again indirectly, discussions with them to ensure the release of our hostages,” he said in Vienna, where talks are taking place on bringing Washington and Tehran back into full compliance with the deal. In recent years, Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards have arrested dozens of dual nationals and foreigners, mostly on espionage and security-related charges. Click here to read... [19]

Remember the Soviet Union, top Chinese policy adviser says in warning against blind pursuit of absolute security

The pursuit of “absolute national security” can extract a heavy price, a Chinese foreign policy adviser has warned, citing the collapse of the Soviet Union as proof of the pitfalls of putting military expansion over long-term security. The unfettered pursuit of security “will see the costs go up drastically and the benefits go drastically down, until the costs outweigh the benefits”, according to Jia Qingguo, a former dean of Peking University’s international relations school. “To ignore the comparative nature of security, and blindly pursue [it] absolutely will result in making the country less secure, as it inflicts unbearable costs and fails to achieve absolute security,” Jia, who sits on the Standing Committee of China’s top political advisory body – the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference – wrote in the latest issue of the bimonthly Journal of International Security Studies. In his 22-page article, Jia seeks to present a comprehensive and balanced view of China’s national security strategy. While he opens with paying homage to President Xi Jinping’s general views on national security, the piece is full of thinly veiled criticisms against hawkish outlooks. He then cites the Soviet Union’s decades of massive defence spending as a typical example of the drawbacks of ignoring long-term security, which led to the federation’s ultimate disintegration in 1991. Click here to read... [20]

Biden, Kishida agree to boost security, economic cooperation

President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Jan 21 used their first formal meeting to discuss concerns about China's growing military assertiveness that's causing increasing disquiet in the Pacific and agreed to boost cooperation on pressing economic and security issues. Kishida said the two leaders spent a “significant amount" of their 80-minute call on issues surrounding China, including shared concerns about China's increasing aggression toward Taiwan. Biden and Kishida also discussed the situations in Hong Kong and China's Xinjiang province. Biden has repeatedly called out Beijing over its crackdown on democracy activists in Hong Kong and forced labor practices targeting China’s Uyghur Muslims and other ethnic minorities in Xinjiang. The White House said the leaders also spoke about opportunities to enhance economic ties between the two nations, launching a new “2 plus 2” dialogue focused on addressing economic issues, ranging from supply chain challenges and investment in key technologies to further cooperation on trade issues. Japan also expressed support for the Biden administration's proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and pledged to work to build support for the initiative in the region. Click here to read... [21]

EU back in Afghanistan after Taliban takeover

The European Union (EU) has become the first Western institution to “re-establish” its presence in Afghanistan after the EU member states and other nations abandoned the country ahead of the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in August. “The EU has started to re-establish a minimal presence of international EU Delegation staff to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid and monitor the humanitarian situation,” European Commission Foreign Affairs Spokesman Peter Stano confirmed. The Taliban tweeted ahead of the EU’s statement that the EU had “officially opened its embassy with a permanent presence in Kabul & practically commenced operations” after “reaching an understanding” between the bloc and militant group. Despite returning to the Middle Eastern country, the EU refused to recognize the Taliban-led administration as the official government of Afghanistan, calling them the “de facto authorities.” The move from the European Commission comes as the Norwegian Foreign Ministry has invited Taliban representatives to Oslo to hold talks with the international community and Afghan civil society members. “These meetings do not represent a legitimization or recognition of the Taliban. But we must talk to the de facto authorities in the country. We cannot allow the political situation to lead to an even worse humanitarian disaster,” Norwegian Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt said. Click here to read... [22]

Thailand’s ‘Blue Diamond Affair’ jinxed its Saudi Arabia ties for decades. Can Prayuth’s visit lift the curse?

Thailand and Saudi Arabia will hold their first high-level talks in decades on Jan 25 when Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha travels to Riyadh, more than 30 years after a diplomatic row over a US$20 million jewel theft soured relations. The “Blue Diamond Affair”, as it became known, began with Thai cleaner Kriangkrai Techamong, who in 1989 stole a hoard of precious gems from the palace of his employer, Prince Faisal bin Fahd: the eldest son of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia. Thai police later returned some of the jewels but Saudi officials claimed most were fakes, while the whereabouts of the most precious gem – a rare 50-carat blue diamond said to be the size of an egg – remains unknown. Riyadh downgraded diplomatic relations with Bangkok following the incident and the spate of murders, abductions and mystery that followed were said to have been caused by a curse. In superstitious Thailand, precious stones are believed to carry with them certain powers that can bode good or evil. Now, there is talk of the curse being lifted after Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman invited Prayuth for Jan 25’s state visit – the first by a Thai leader to the Middle Eastern kingdom in more than three decades. Click here to read... [23]

China warns Olympic athletes to keep quiet on politics

With the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics fast approaching, the authorities are cautioning participants against political speech, with discipline on the table for those who cross the line."Any behaviour or speeches that are against the Olympic spirit, especially against Chinese laws and regulations, are also subject to certain punishment," said Yang Shu, deputy director general of Beijing 2022's International Relations Department, in a recent online briefing for the Beijing Games by the Chinese Embassy in Washington. A possible punishment could be cancellation of athletes' accreditation, Yang suggested. Last July, ahead of the Summer Games in Tokyo, the International Olympic Committee approved an easing of the Olympic Charter's Rule 50, which bars political, religious or racial propaganda at Olympic sites and venues. Although athletes still cannot target countries, groups or people, they can express political views in news conferences, for example. The rule change opened the door to a string of athletes protesting against racism and other issues during the Summer Olympics in Tokyo last year. Now the focus has shifted to how organizers of Beijing 2022 will respond to outspoken participants. Yang's warning implies that athletes will be punished for statements deemed to not be in China's interest, even if they toe the IOC's line. Click here to read... [24]

China-led upgrade of Cambodian base advances as dredgers appear

Dredging work appears set to start in the waters surrounding Cambodia's Ream naval base, where a Chinese-led expansion has become a growing source of geopolitical tension. Work to deepen the bay will mark a milestone in upgrades to the site, where the shallow waters can currently only accommodate small patrol vessels. The Center for Strategic and International Studies' Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative on Jan 22 released a Jan. 16 satellite image showing two clamshell dredgers just off the coast of Ream accompanied by barges for collecting dredged sand. "The extent of the planned dredging is unclear but could mark a significant upgrade in the base's capabilities," CSIS wrote in a briefing on Jan 22. China is funding upgrades at Ream including an expansion of the port and the development of a ship repair facility. The U.S. has raised concerns that China is planning to host military assets at the base. In 2019, The Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. had seen a draft agreement between Cambodia and China that allowed Beijing to use Ream for 30 years. Last June, U.S. senior diplomat Wendy Sherman visited Phnom Penh and told Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen that Washington had "serious concerns" about China's "military presence" at the site. Click here to read... [25]

Japan's got the 2+2 bug, engaging with France, Germany and Indonesia

Japan held its seventh foreign and defence ministers' meeting in a year with France on Jan 20, the most ever, as the format regains favour under a U.S. president who promotes a multilateral approach to countering China's rising influence. President Joe Biden values the unique opportunity these "two-plus-two" meetings offer for two nations to discuss foreign policy and defence issues. Within six months of Biden taking office in January 2021, Japan held "two-plus-two" talks with the U.K. the U.S., Indonesia, Germany and Australia. Domestic priorities got in the way in the second half of 2021, from the Tokyo Olympics to the launch of a new government under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and a lower house election. But Japan held another two-plus-two with the U.S. on Jan. 7. The unprecedented pace contrasts sharply with the final 12 months of the Trump presidency, when Japan held zero two-plus-twos. Jan 20's meeting with France was attended virtually by Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi, and French counterparts Jean-Yves Le Drian and Florence Parly. In a joint statement afterward, the ministers said they will start discussions to ease administrative and legal requirements for joint drills between the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the French military. Click here to read... [26]

North Korea Considers Restarting Long-Range and Nuclear-Weapons Tests

North Korea suggested it might consider restarting long-range and nuclear-weapons tests, promising to take “practical action” as it says the U.S. threat to the country can no longer be ignored. The Kim Jong Un regime for more than four years hasn’t launched an intercontinental ballistic missile or conducted a nuclear test—major provocations that have previously drawn recrimination even from close allies in Beijing and Moscow. At a Jan 19 Politburo meeting, North Korea blasted the U.S. for maintaining hostilities against the cloistered regime, from sanctions enforcement to combined Washington-Seoul military exercises to America’s own strategic-weapons testing, according to North Korea’s state media. Mr. Kim presided over the meeting. Pyongyang would reconsider at “an overall scale the trust-building measures that we took on our own initiative” after the 2018 Singapore summit and would “promptly examine the issue of restarting all temporarily suspended activities,” the report said. That is probably a reference to the multiyear pause in major weapons tests, given that Pyongyang has recently unleashed a barrage of shorter-range missile launches. Click here to read... [27]

Burkina Faso army says it has deposed President Kabore

Burkina Faso’s army has announced it has deposed President Roch Kabore, dissolved the government and the national assembly, and suspended the constitution, seizing control of the country after two days of unrest at army camps in the capital. The announcement, signed on Jan 24 by Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba and read by another officer on state television, said the takeover had been carried out without violence and those detained were in a secure location. The country’s borders have also been closed, it added. The statement was made in the name of a previously unheard-of entity, the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration or MPSR, according to its French language acronym. “MPSR, which includes all sections of the army, has decided to end President Kabore’s post today,” it said. It cited the deterioration of the security situation and what it described as Kabore’s inability to unite the nation and effectively respond to the challenges it faces. The statement said the MPSR would re-establish “constitutional order” within a “reasonable time”, adding that a nationwide nightly curfew would be enforced. President Kabore’s whereabouts was not immediately known. Click here to read... [28]

Taiwan VP to make sensitive US stopovers in visit to Honduras

Vice President William Lai will transit through the United States on his way to Honduras next week, the presidential office said on Jan 20, a travel plan that drew a complaint from China. Beijing considers democratic Taiwan its own territory, ineligible for state-to-state relations, despite strong objections by Taipei, which has been complaining about rising Chinese pressure to force it into accepting Chinese sovereignty. China regularly calls Taiwan the most sensitive and important issue between it and the United States, which does not have formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan but is the island's strongest ally and main weapons supplier. Lai will travel to and from Taiwanese diplomatic ally Honduras via the US cities of Los Angeles and San Francisco, in what is generally standard procedure for visits by Taiwanese leaders to Latin America. The US government will give "courteous reception of a high standard" to the Taiwan delegation and Lai will hold virtual meetings with unspecified US politicians during his stops, the presidential office said."Since the inauguration, the Biden administration has repeatedly demonstrated its firm support for Taiwan with concrete actions," the office said. "We believe the two sides will continue to stably deepen Taiwan-US relations on all fronts." Click here to read... [29]

Medical

End of Covid pandemic ‘plausible,’ WHO claims

The World Health Organization (WHO) claimed on Jan 23 that there might finally be an end to the Covid pandemic in Europe, after the rapid spread of the Omicron variant. “It is plausible that the region is approaching an end to the pandemic,” Regional Director Hans Kluge told the AFP news agency. He cautioned that people should still take precautions, due to the coronavirus’ ability to mutate, but predicted a “period of quiet” following Omicron. “We anticipate there will be a level of quiet before Covid-19 may come back towards the end of the year, but not necessarily the pandemic,” he said. Kluge said a level of “global immunity” could be reached for a period of weeks or months because of a combination of the relatively high number of current infections, continued vaccination uptake, and the “lowering seasonality” aspect of the forthcoming Northern Hemisphere spring. The WHO’s Europe region, which covers 53 countries and territories, has seen a spike in Omicron cases, like much of the world. In the week ending January 18, the percentage of new infections from Omicron more than doubled, from 6.3% to 15%, according to health officials. Click here to read... [30]

Swiss researchers launch trial for COVID-19 'patch' vaccine

Swiss medical researchers said on Jan 19 they have launched an early-stage study to test a next-generation COVID-19 vaccine candidate which would be administered via an arm patch, the latest to look at alternative methods of giving injections. Unlike conventional vaccines that stimulate antibody production, the new PepGNP-Covid19 vaccine candidate focuses on T-cells, which are responsible for cellular immunity, to eliminate cells infected by the virus and prevent it from replicating. British company Emergex Vaccines Holding developed the potential vaccine, while Unisanté medical research centre in Lausanne in collaboration with the city's CHUV hospital will run the trial, which started on Jan 10. Professor Blaise Genton, head of the study, said this cellular immunity generates so-called "memory cells", which could make the vaccine more durable and could be better than others at protecting against potential variants of the virus. The possible vaccine will be administered via micro-needles in the patch that are less than 1mm deep that they hope will provide long-term immunity from COVID-19 and do away with the need for seasonal booster shots. Click here to read... [31]

Betting Omicron has peaked, Johnson drops COVID-19 rules in England

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the end of COVID-19 measures introduced to curb the rapid spread of the Omicron variant in England as he looks to live with the virus after a peak in cases. Britain was the first country to limit international travel over the Omicron variant, raising alarm bells about its mutations, and in December introduced work-at-home advice, more mask-wearing and vaccine passes to slow its spread. But while cases soared to record highs, hospitalisations and deaths have not risen by the same extent, in part due to Britain's booster rollout and the variant's lesser severity. Johnson's approach to avoid lockdowns and live with the virus contrasts with a zero tolerance approach to COVID-19 in China and Hong Kong, and tougher restrictions in many other European countries. "Many nations across Europe have endured further winter lockdowns ... but this government took a different path," Johnson told lawmakers, saying the government had got the toughest decisions right and that numbers going into intensive care were falling. "Our scientists believe it is likely that the Omicron wave has now peaked nationally ... because of the extraordinary booster campaign, together with the way the public have responded to the Plan B measures, we can return to Plan A." Click here to read... [32]