Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 10 January 2022 - 16 January 2022

Economic

China growth figures reveal need for swift policy responses

China has just posted a record annual trade surplus with the rest of the world and the United States in particular while recording slowing growth at home. The contrast underlines the challenges facing policymakers in trying to maintain economic stability. The export surge reflects Covid-19 effects on foreign markets such as social distancing, which stimulated demand for electronics and other domestic consumer durables. But it is not being mirrored at home. China’s economy may have grown by 8.1 per cent in 2021 against an official target of “above 6 per cent” but grew by only 4 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, slowing from 4.9 per cent in the previous three months, having already plunged from more than 18 per cent growth in the first quarter during the recovery from the worst of the pandemic. The recovery has been losing steam since the second half of last year, prompting the central bank to cut its two major policy rates by 10 basis points yesterday following easing in December, further evidence of Beijing’s intention to stabilise growth in 2022. The trade surplus is widening so much, as demand for Chinese exports defies the Covid slowdown, that it is looking like the main engine of China’s growth. At the same time China has not increased domestic consumption as much as hoped, nor imported as much from the rest of world. Click here to read... [2]

China state think tank sees ‘targeted decoupling’ in supply chains with the West as a top risk for 2022 amid rising tensions

A Chinese state think tank has listed a “targeted decoupling of supply chains” as one of the top 10 global risks in 2022, along with mutations of the Covid-19 virus, underlining how serious the issue is viewed by top scholars in the country. The list, which also includes possible US financial turmoil amid Federal Reserve policy changes and heightened tensions over the Taiwan Strait, was produced by the National Institute for Global Strategy and the Institute of World Economics and Politics, both under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). It indicates that Chinese academics see a partial decoupling between China and the Western world as a realistic threat as Washington continues to restrict China’s access to strategic technologies, such as advanced chips. A number of US laws, including The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, The “Build Back Better” social safety net plan – both in effect – and The US Innovation and Competition Act, which is under review, are likely to cause “a targeted decoupling [from the West] of Chinese products, technology industries and regions,” according to the article. Click here to read... [3]

US-China tech war: Chinese semiconductor output surged 33 per cent last year, double the growth rate in 2020

China’s output of integrated circuits (ICs), including those produced by local companies and foreign-owned factories, last year grew at double the rate seen in 2020, according to Chinese government data. China produced 359.4 billion ICs in 2021, up 33.3 per cent year on year, according to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Jan 17. It marked a significant acceleration from 2020, when China’s IC output rose 16.2 per cent to 261.3 billion units. While the official data did not provide a breakdown by technology node – China is unable to produce the most advanced ICs – or by company, it highlighted the country’s efforts to boost output amid a protracted chip shortage and Beijing’s push for semiconductor self-sufficiency. The growth in output also provides fresh evidence that Beijing’s efforts to maintain China’s integration with global supply chains is paying off. A report issued by the US-based Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) earlier this month forecast that China’s semiconductor industry could account for 17.4 per cent of global sales by 2024, up from 9 per cent in 2020, if its current momentum is maintained. That would make China the world’s No 3 seller of chips – a different metric to production output – behind only the US and South Korea. Click here to read... [4]

China's pan-Asian railway sputters to a halt in Thailand

China has been keen to play the leading role in the building of a railway network in Southeast Asia. Its principal aim is to secure a land transport route that can serve as an alternative to marine shipping routes that pass through the South China Sea and the Malacca Straits. For this strategy to work, China needs Thailand to cooperate as the railway line has to go through the country to reach Malaysia and Singapore. Some experts in Thailand are clamoring for quick government action to connect Thailand and Laos with a high-speed railway line, but the government has been less keen. Under initial plans, China was committed to provide funds to a newly established joint Chinese-Thai venture to complete the link in 2020, ahead of the China-Laos line. But by the time construction began in 2017, Thailand had drastically changed the plans for the project. This was because of what Bangkok considered to be unreasonable demands from Beijing, including the terms of its loans and the requirement that Chinese materials and workers be used for the construction. China also wanted the right to develop areas along the railway line. Those demands ruffled Bangkok's feathers, and the project was cut by about 60% to become a 253 km railway line between Bangkok and Nakhon Ratchasima Province. Click here to read... [5]

Is this the end of the line for China’s big belt and road funding in Africa?

Morocco led the way in North Africa earlier this month when it became the first in the region to sign on to an implementation plan for China’s massive infrastructure programme, the Belt and Road Initiative. Four other North African countries – Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Algeria – have signed belt and road memorandums of understanding but Morocco is the first to go that one step further to detail the projects it and China will deliver. Moroccan Foreign Affairs Minister Nasser Bourita said the initiative would “open up new prospects for trade and investment and bring additional opportunities consistent with the kingdom’s New Development Model”. But where once that agreement would have been a near-guarantee for funding, it will now not necessarily translate into greater amounts of Chinese financing, particularly for major infrastructure, observers say. Morocco is among more than 50 African countries that have either signed belt and road implementation plans or MoUs with China, with newcomers last year including Guinea-Bissau, Eritrea, Sao Tome and Principe and the Central African Republic. In the past, joining the belt and road came with high prospects of funding, but now those banks are now demanding feasibility studies amid debt distress in the continent. Click here to read... [6]

Japan chip subsidy requires 10-year pledge from TSMC, others

Japan plans to require chipmakers to maintain production here for about 10 years to qualify for a new subsidy designed to encourage more players to set up shop in the country. With semiconductors becoming more vital to a range of products, from smartphones and home appliances to cars, Japan and other countries are scrambling to shore up supply. The chips are also increasingly considered crucial to national security. Tokyo is offering support to advanced chipmakers for building new production hubs in the country, starting with a multibillion-dollar package covering roughly half the cost of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s first Japanese plant. TSMC is the world's largest chip manufacturer. Last month, Japan's parliament passed legislation on the chip subsidies, slated to take effect as early as March, with a total of 600 billion yen ($5.2 billion) budgeted to support chipmakers. The government this month will start seeking public comment on specific rules regarding the subsidy, like the 10-year commitment, which will be outlined in an ordinance from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Other proposed requirements include increasing output during shortages, safeguarding key technologies and continuing investments at the subsidized factories. Click here to read... [7]

Vietnam promotes Can Tho to special city, focusing on Mekong Delta

Vietnam is granting Can Tho, on the Mekong Delta, a special status to draw investment amid China's growing presence in the country and the South China Sea. The National Assembly approved the plan to promote the southern city on Jan 11. With this resolution, Hanoi will grant the city increased autonomy to issue local government bonds and retain more of its budget for its own development rather than contributing to the government's coffers. More flexibility will be granted in the area of city planning on a trial basis. The resolution will take effect on March 1 and be implemented for five years. Can Tho, with a population of 1.2 million, will become a "core city of the Mekong Delta region" by 2030, according to the resolution. Vietnam intends to draw investments totaling dozens of billions of dollars, according to the blueprint for 2022 to 2030. Despite its growth potential, the city has been lagging behind Haiphong and Danang in terms of development as Hanoi prioritized investment in northern cities. Under the resolution, Vietnam will implement special mechanisms and policies to feature Can Tho as gateway of the lower Mekong region, connecting Vietnam with Cambodia and Laos. Click here to read... [8]

Pakistan struggles to settle delayed mining license dispute

Pakistan's government is facing a quandary in a commercial dispute involving a delayed lease to a foreign mining consortium, with compensation damages plus interest totaling up to $7.9 billion -- the most in the history of the country's cross-border commercial disputes. While Islamabad is reportedly entering into a deal with the consortium, opposing groups have started agitating against it. The stakes in the disagreement are high for Pakistan. The South Asian country is grappling with a rising debt burden and is part of a growing regional power struggle as China seeks to expand its influence. The project concerned is the Reko Diq Gold and Copper Mines, near the triangular border with Iran and Afghanistan in the province of Balochistan. The owner was the Australian company BHP Minerals until 2006, when the Tethyan Copper Co., a consortium between London-based Chilean company Antofagasta and Canada's Barrick Gold, acquired the shares. But Pakistan in 2011 refused to grant a mining lease to TCC. The consortium challenged this decision at the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes. In 2017, ICSID in its verdict asked Pakistan to pay damages of $5.9 billion to TCC. Click here to read... [9]

US bill would block defense contractors from using Chinese rare earths

A bipartisan piece of legislation introduced in the U.S. Senate on Friday would force defense contractors to stop buying rare earths from China by 2026 and use the Pentagon to create a permanent stockpile of the strategic minerals. The bill, sponsored by Senators Tom Cotton, an Arkansas Republican, and Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat, is the latest in a string of U.S. legislation seeking to thwart China's near control over the sector. It essentially uses the Pentagon's purchase of billions of dollars worth of fighter jets, missiles and other weapons as leverage to require contractors to stop relying on China and, by extension, support the revival of U.S. rare earths production. Rare earths are a group of 17 metals that, after processing, are used to make magnets found in electric vehicles, weaponry and electronics. While the United States created the industry in World War Two and U.S. military scientists developed the most widely-used type of rare earth magnet, China has slowly grown to control the entire sector the past 30 years. The United States has only one rare earths mine and has no capability to process rare earth minerals. Click here to read... [10]

Britain and India aim to finalise free trade agreement by year-end

Britain and India formally launched free trade agreement talks in New Delhi on Jan 13 with the aim of wrapping up a deal by the end of the year that could boost annual bilateral trade by billions of pounds. Britain has made a deal with India one of its post-Brexit priorities as, free from the European Union's common trade policy, ministers look to gear trade policy towards faster-growing economies around the Indo-Pacific region. Meeting in New Delhi on Jan 13, Indian trade minister Piyush Goyal and his British counterpart Anne-Marie Trevelyan said they would also launch an "early harvest" or a limited-scope interim trade agreement in the next few months, before finalising the free trade agreement. "This is an opportunity that we must seize to steer our partnership along the track of mutual prosperity for the decades to come," Trevelyan said. Britain said the deal could almost double British exports to India, and by 2035 boost total trade by £28 billion (US$38.3 billion) per year. Total trade in 2019 was worth £23 billion, according to British statistics. India is seeking greater opportunities for Indians to live and work in Britain, and any trade deal could be contingent on relaxing rules and lowering fees for Indian students and professionals going to Britain. Click here to read... [11]

FAA reveals which planes can potentially withstand 5G interference

Some 45 percent of the US commercial fleet have been cleared for low-visibility landing at just over half of the airports most affected by 5G interference, the FAA said. The aviation safety agency determined on Jan 16 which radio altimeter models can potentially be used for low-visibility landings in case of 5G C-band interference. Two types of devices used to measure a plane’s altitude above a fixed level were cleared by the FAA. The move opens up runways at 48 out of the 88 most affected airports for a host of aircraft models, including Boeing 737, 747, 757, 767, and MD-10/-11; and Airbus A310, A319, A320, A321, A330, and A350, which together comprise roughly 45% of America’s commercial fleet. These planes would be allowed to land at the airports listed by the FAA even under low-visibility conditions. The remaining airports are still deemed too much affected by 5G frequencies and would apparently be open for landing only in good weather. “Passengers should check with their airlines if weather is forecast at a destination where 5G interference is possible,” the FAA warned. The agency also noted that none of 88 affected airports would have been available for landing during recent low-visibility conditions on January 5. FAA identifies dozens of airports affected by 5G rollout. Click here to read... [12]

Bling ka-ching: De Beers aggressively hikes diamond prices

De Beers pushed through one of its most aggressive diamond price increases in recent years as the world’s biggest producer of the stones cashes in on a buying frenzy for uncut gems. De Beers raised prices by about 8% at its first sale of the year, according to people familiar with the situation who asked not to be identified because the information is private. The biggest increases were for smaller, cheaper stones. The diamond industry was one of the surprise winners as the global economy rebounded from the first effects of the pandemic. Consumer demand for diamond jewelry is expected to have grown strongly last year, while supply remained constrained. De Beers raised prices of rough diamonds throughout much of 2021 as it sought to recover from the first year of the pandemic when the industry came to a near halt. Yet most of those price rises were focused on larger and more expensive diamonds, while the emphasis now is on cheaper stones. As this week’s sale in Botswana, De Beers raised the price of larger stones by about 5%, the people said, while some smaller rough diamonds saw prices hikes of as much as 20%. A spokesman for De Beers, a unit of Anglo-American Plc, declined to comment. Smaller diamonds, used in cheaper jewelry sold in places like Walmart Inc., struggled for years amid over-supply. However, they rallied strongly toward the end of 2021 as supply tightened and higher quality goods went up in the price. Click here to read... [13]
That led to a frenzy of buying in the secondary market, where accredited De Beers and Alrosa buyers sell to other gem manufacturers. That spurred De Beers to respond by raising its own prices.

Strategic

Behind United Front, U.S. Approach on Russia Unsettles Some Allies

In public, the U.S. and its allies this week presented a united front in rejecting Russian demands that they rule out NATO enlargement and pull military forces back from the alliance’s eastern flank. Behind the scenes, some allies—particularly those close to Russia—are perturbed by several ideas floated by U.S. officials at talks with Russian counterparts before they were aired with allies, according to diplomats at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Some allies found out about the idea of a reciprocal reduction in the size and scope of military exercises from the news media, they say. The possibility of designating some areas of the Black Sea off-limits for exercises was brought up for the first time when U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman briefed allies at NATO on Jan 11, following talks with her Russian counterparts in Geneva on Jan 10. Some allies want more clarity over proposals to try to re-establish limits on intermediate-range missiles. A Cold War-era pact between the U.S. and Russia on the issues collapsed in 2019 after Washington accused Moscow of breaching the deal by fielding such systems, which could target European cities but not America. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said there would be many more consultations among allies before any proposals are made or deals struck. Click here to read... [14]

China presses economic buttons to deepen Indian Ocean clout

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi kicked off 2022 diplomacy by signaling a renewed development push in the Indian Ocean region, where Beijing is locked in an intensifying geopolitical contest with India and the U.S. The top diplomat hinted at a new economic network for nations that share the waterway during his visit to Sri Lanka this past weekend -- the final leg of a weeklong five-country trip that included the Comoros and Maldives, as well as the littoral East African countries of Eritrea and Kenya. Wang told Sri Lankan government officials that China has a blueprint for a development forum for Indian Ocean countries because they share "similar experiences and common needs." This echoed the economic message that he had pressed home in the Comoros and Maldives -- both of which, like Sri Lanka, have received Chinese development assistance, including cash for large infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative. South Asian diplomats took Wang's comments as a further sign of China's determination to assert its presence across the Indian Ocean, beyond the narrow confines of bilateral ties with economically weaker island states. Wang sought to amplify the economic edge China enjoys over regional rival India. Click here to read... [15]

China slams U.S. sanctions on Iran as cooperation agreement launched

China reaffirmed its opposition to unilateral sanctions by the United States against Iran as the Chinese and Iranian foreign ministers announced the launch of a 25-year cooperation agreement aimed at strengthening economic and political ties. In a meeting on Jan 14 in the city of Wuxi, in Jiangsu province, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also backed efforts to revive a 2015 nuclear deal between major powers and Iran. A summary of the meeting between Wang and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian was posted on China's foreign ministry website on Jan 15. Wang, who is also State Councillor, said the U.S. bore primary responsibility for the ongoing difficulties with Iran, having unilaterally withdrawn from a 2015 nuclear deal between the major powers and Iran. Under the terms of that deal, in return for the lifting of international sanctions, Iran would limit uranium enrichment activity, making it harder to develop nuclear arms - although Tehran denies having plans for nuclear weapons. Wang said China would firmly support a resumption on negotiations on a nuclear pact. But he said China firmly opposes unilateral sanctions against Iran, political manipulation through topics including human rights, and interference in the internal affairs of Iran and other regional countries. Click here to read... [16]

US nuclear missile sub makes rare visit to base near Taiwan

A US Navy submarine carrying dozens of nuclear warheads sailed into a Pacific base for a rare visit on Jan 15, with the Navy calling it a message to allies in the region. The USS Nevada – a nuclear-powered submarine that was commissioned in 1986 – carries up to 20 Trident II D-5s and “dozens of nuclear warheads,” according to reports. The submarine visited US Naval Base Guam on January 15, in what was the first visit by this type of submarine since 2016, CNN reported. In a statement, the US Navy said the visit “strengthens cooperation between the United States and allies in the region” and demonstrates “U.S. capability, flexibility, readiness, and continuing commitment to Indo-Pacific regional security and stability.” The visit took place as Washington and Beijing have been increasingly at loggerheads, particularly over the issue of Taiwan, with the US backing the self-governing island’s administration. In December, the US and Japan drafted an emergency military plan in preparation for a potential conflict between China and Taiwan, while in the same month, the Pentagon warned that China was “likely preparing” to invade the island. Two months prior, President Joe Biden said the US is committed to defending Taiwan should China try to reunite the island with the mainland. The White House later backpedaled on his comments. Click here to read... [17]

South Korean Presidential candidate doubles down on war threat against North Korea

South Korean presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol has reiterated his promise to make sure the country develops capabilities to carry out a preemptive strike against North Korea if it opts to put its nuclear weapons to use. Yoon, who is running in the election this March for the country’s People Power Party – the second largest in the National Assembly – took to Facebook on Jan 17 shortly after Pyongyang carried out its fourth missile test in recent weeks. The conservative politician described the move as a “provocation” and vowed to do everything to protect the people of the Republic of Korea (ROK) from the nuclear and missile threat coming from its archrival if he’s elected. “We will secure preemptive strike capabilities” in order to avert a potential nuclear attack by Pyongyang, the 61-year-old added. “Peace is the result of overwhelming power,” he insisted, arguing that Seoul should be armed with ultra-precision and hypersonic missiles, boost its missile defenses, including with laser weapons, and develop surveillance capabilities to monitor the territory of North Korea. Yoon first floated the idea of a preemptive strike against North Korea last week, after Pyongyang’s hypersonic missile test. His main rival Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party accused Yoon of “extremely dangerous security populism” for choosing to play the North Korean card to gain votes. Click here to read... [18]

South Korea inks US$3.5 billion surface-to-air missile deal with UAE amid stronger defence ties

On a trip to the United Arab Emirates, the president of South Korea on Jan 16 reportedly reached a preliminary multibillion-dollar deal to sell Seoul’s surface-to-air missiles to Abu Dhabi and pledged deeper cooperation with the Gulf Arab federation. After South Korean President Moon Jae-in met Emirati Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum in Dubai, the countries signed a memorandum of understanding for the UAE’s purchase of a South Korean mid-range missile defence system valued at some US$3.5 billion, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported. Sheikh Mohammed posted photos of the meeting and said the UAE seeks “a comprehensive strategic economic partnership” with South Korea, one of the world’s top crude importers and financiers of energy projects. The nations have strengthened their defence cooperation over the past decade, with South Korean elite special forces even travelling to the UAE to train Emirati troops in an unprecedented years-long deployment for the Asian country. Meanwhile, the UAE has hosted hundreds of North Korean labourers in past years who provide a key revenue stream for Pyongyang. But under pressure to enforce US-led sanctions over North Korea’s nuclear programme, Abu Dhabi has recently moved to choke off the network and stopped renewing North Korean work visas. Click here to read... [19]

Japan's defense industry on the ropes amid growing threats

Given the difficulty of developing fighter jets and other cutting-edge weapons by Japanese companies alone, Japan's reliance on the U.S. for equipment is further increasing, making it more important than previously for the country to select and concentrate on proprietary defense technologies it should retain in the future. Japan's defense industry is "fragile as many companies are not positive on production," Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said, underlining a sense of crisis for the sector. The country's top construction equipment maker Komatsu stopped manufacturing bulletproof light armored vehicles in 2019. Japanese chemical producer Daicel decided the following year to pull the plug on production of emergency evacuation systems for aircraft pilots. While weapons technology is becoming more sophisticated, the amount of defense equipment ordered by the Defense Ministry has dropped by half over the past two decades, affecting Japanese companies' decisions to withdraw from defense production. The ministry usually places orders at prices roughly 5% higher than cost, leaving little room for manufacturers to increase their profit. There are wide differences in the profit margin between Japanese and foreign defense equipment makers, with Lockheed Martin of the U.S., for example, boasting an operating profit ratio of more than 10%.Click here to read... [20]

Malaysia says Hun Sen's Myanmar visit did no good

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's visit to Myanmar should have been avoided, Malaysia's top diplomat said Jan 13, noting that it did no good to ongoing mediation efforts between ASEAN and the military government. Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said Hun Sen should have consulted other ASEAN leaders before embarking on the visit especially when Cambodia's position as the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would paint the wrong picture that the pact is recognizing the military regime, which ousted the country's elected government in February last year. "He could have done the visit as a bilateral visit as a head of state but when you have assumed the chairmanship of ASEAN, it would have been construed wrongly," he told reporters in Kuala Lumpur. In his first major act as this year's ASEAN chairman, Hun Sen visited Myanmar on Jan. 7 to meet the military government's top leader, Min Aung Hlaing. He became the first foreign leader to visit Myanmar since the takeover. The ASEAN foreign ministers meeting that was supposed to take place in Siem Reap, Cambodia, next week has been postponed. Cambodia Foreign Ministry spokesperson Koy Kuong told reporters that the postponement was due to ASEAN ministers "having difficulties" traveling, but it may have been the result of a de facto boycott by some members. Click here to read... [21]

Philippines says 'indispensable' Suu Kyi must be involved in Myanmar peace process

Deposed Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi is "indispensable" in restoring democracy to the military-ruled country and must be included in any peace talks, regardless of her conviction, the Philippines' foreign minister said on Jan 16. In a strong rebuke of the Myanmar junta that overthrew Suu Kyi's elected government last year, Teodoro Locsin condemned last week's sentencing of the Nobel laureate and accused the military of using the judicial system to crush its opponents. Locsin said he would "adopt" verbatim the remarks of Norwegian Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt in demanding the junta free political prisoners, halt violence and respect human rights. "I am deeply concerned about the suffering of the civilian population," Locsin said in a statement. "We also call on the military leadership to participate in an inclusive dialogue and resume the democratic transition process." His statement comes as Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members turn up the heat on the Myanmar military after a turbulent end to 2021, during which junta boss Min Aung Hlaing was excluded from a leaders' summit for failure to honour commitments to an ASEAN-led peace plan. Myanmar says its efforts are being derailed by "terrorists" seeking to destroy the country. Click here to read... [22]

Philippines to acquire missile system from India for $375 million

The Philippines has finalised a deal to acquire a shore-based anti-ship missile system from India for nearly $375 million to beef up its navy, the Southeast Asian nation's defence minister said. The Philippines is in the late stages of a five-year, 300 billion pesos ($5.85 billion) project to modernise its military's outdated hardware that includes warships from World War Two and helicopters used by the United States in the Vietnam War. Under the deal negotiated with the government of India, Brahmos Aerospace Private Ltd will deliver three batteries, train operators and maintainers, and provide logistics support, Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said in a Facebook post late on Jan 14. It was conceptualised in 2017 but faced delays in budget allocation and due to the coronavirus pandemic. The new anti-ship system aims to deter foreign vessels from encroaching on the country's 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone. In 2018, the Philippines bought Israeli-made Spike ER missiles, its first-ever ship-borne missile systems for maritime deterrence. Despite friendlier ties between China and the Philippines under President Rodrigo Duterte, Beijing has remained adamant in claiming large portions of the South China Sea, a conduit for goods in excess of $3.4 trillion every year. Click here to read... [23]

Russian-led troops to start leaving Kazakhstan in 2 days: Tokayev

A Russian-led military bloc will begin withdrawing its troops from Kazakhstan in two days' time after fulfilling its main mission of stabilising the Central Asian country after serious unrest, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said on Jan 11. Tokayev told parliament he was appointing a long-serving career public servant Alikhan Smailov as prime minister and spoke of initiatives to narrow the wealth gap, raise taxes on the mining sector, and eliminate irregularities in state procurement. Tokayev, 68, last week asked the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) to send in troops at the peak of what he later said was an attempted coup d'etat whose unnamed instigators had plunged half of the oil-rich nation's territory into violence. A day earlier, he said that the CSTO mission, whose legitimacy and duration were queried by Washington prompting an angry response from Moscow, numbered 2,030 troops and 250 pieces of military hardware. "The main mission of the CSTO peacekeeping forces has been successfully completed," Tokayev told parliament in a video conference call. "In two days' time a phased withdrawal of the CSTO united peacekeeping contingent will begin. The withdrawal process of the contingent will take no more than 10 days." Click here to read... [24]

Iran & Saudi Arabia to re-establish diplomatic ties, lawmaker says

Iran and Saudi Arabia are preparing to reopen their respective embassies in Tehran and Riyadh, and wil lre-establish full diplomatic ties, an Iranian lawmaker has said. Relations between the two major regional powers are “being revived” and the embassies are “preparing to open,” Jalil Rahimi Jahanabadi, a member of the Iranian parliament’s Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy tweeted on Jan 15. “This has important implications on reducing regional tensions and increasing cohesion of the Muslim world,” he added. Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic relations with Iran in 2016, in the wake of an attack on the country’s missions in Iran, prompted by the execution of a prominent Saudi Arabian Shia cleric, Nimr Baqir al-Nimr. Tensions between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia have further deteriorated during the war in Yemen, where Riyadh intervened on the side of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi’s forces. Despite the current tensions, Riyadh and Tehran launched direct talks last year, though they yielded no tangible results. The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced on January 10, however, that a fresh round of talks would take place in Iraq later this year. Click here to read... [25]

Taliban announces a national suicide brigade

The Taliban recently announced it will establish a battalion of suicide attackers as part of the national army of Afghanistan. These “martyrdom brigades” will be “under the control of the ministry of defense and will be used for special operations,” according to Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid. This was condemned as “horrific and appalling” by Shaharzad Akbar, the chairwoman of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission. Suicide missions and martyrdom have both long been associated with terrorist activity. Before sweeping into power in 2021, the Taliban used suicide bombers for 20 years to attack US, UK and Afghan troops. How do such activities fit within a military force? The origins of suicide bombing can be traced to March 13, 1881, when Ignaty Grinevitsky, a member of The People’s Will terrorist group, dropped a bomb at the feet of Tsar Alexander II outside the Winter Palace in St Petersburg, killing them both. The night before the attack Grinevitsky wrote: “I believe that with my death I shall do all that it is my duty to do.” In that deadly act, Grinevitsky became the first recorded suicide bomber. Suicide bombing became part of insurgent movements and modern warfare. Japanese pilots used suicide tactics during the second world war, with the Japanese Kamikaze pilots crashing their aircraft into Allied naval vessels. Click here to read... [26]

Sahel violence threatens West African coastal states

Benin, a small coastal country in West Africa, has been relatively unscathed from a security crisis that has wreaked havoc in its northern neighbours across the Sahel region for much of the past decade. Beninise military officials said two soldiers were killed and several others wounded when fighters attacked a military post in the northern Atacora region, near the border with Burkina Faso. The al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) armed group claimed responsibility for the attack, saying in a message shared across social platforms it killed four soldiers. Michael Matongbada, a Beninese researcher at Institute for Security Studies (ISS), said the rare hit-and-run on Atacora was the first attack to be claimed by an armed group in the country. “The expansion of groups beyond their initial areas of operation and influence in the Sahel region is a reality to be acknowledged,” Matongbada told Al Jazeera. In a rare public appearance last year, the head of France’s foreign intelligence service Bernard Emie said al-Qaeda-linked fighters were working on plans to extend their attacks in the Gulf of Guinea, particularly in Benin and Ivory Coast. Click here to read... [27]

What is behind the Houthi attacks in the UAE?

The UAE, a member of the Saudi-led coalition fighting the rebels, has largely avoided the Houthi firing line until now. The suspected drone attack on Jan 17 claimed by Yemen’s Houthis on the United Arab Emirates, leading to the deaths of at least three people at Abu Dhabi International Airport, marks a strategic shift by the Iranian-allied rebel group. The UAE – which has been a member of the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis, and officially backing Yemen’s government, since March 2015 – has largely avoided the Houthi firing line. Saudi Arabia has borne the brunt of missile and drone attacks sent from Yemen, and the last Houthi-claimed attack on the UAE was in 2018. The UAE is further from Yemen, and shares no borders with the country, unlike Saudi Arabia’s long border with Yemen. But there also appeared to have long been an active strategy by the Houthis not to target the UAE, For the past few years, the UAE has dialled down its own direct military involvement in Yemen. UAE-backed forces, such as the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), and the Joint Forces, led by a nephew of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, have largely avoided offensives against the Houthis. Click here to read... [28]

Medical

China scrambles to stamp out omicron as Olympics approaches

The Chinese city of Tianjin is rushing to contain an outbreak of the highly contagious COVID-19 omicron variant before next month's Beijing Winter Olympics. Testing of the city's entire population of 14 million began Jan 09 morning in hopes of curbing the variant's spread. Tianjin confirmed two cases of community transmission of omicron Jan 08 and reported 21 coronavirus infections Jan 09. The nascent outbreak in an industrial center just half an hour from Beijing by high-speed rail has alarmed a government that vowed to shut the virus out of the country. Li Hongzhong, Tianjin's Communist Party secretary, has said the city must build a "moat" to keep the virus out of the capital, according to Chinese media. Authorities urge residents not to leave Tianjin unnecessarily. Proof of a negative PCR test is now required to leave the city, and sales of high-speed train tickets from Tianjin to Beijing are suspended. Travel agencies in Tianjin have been ordered to halt activities such as group tours. Coronavirus-related restrictions are hitting some of the many foreign companies that operate in the coastal city. Toyota Motor is halting operations Jan 10 and Jan 11 at a Tianjin assembly plant run by a joint venture. Click here to read... [29]

DNA test to be added to Covid screening

The Polish Health Ministry is planning to introduce a new type of screening for coronavirus after a gene was discovered that determines the likelihood of a patient suffering from severe or fatal Covid-19. People most at risk of suffering the severest effects or even dying of coronavirus can be identified using a genetic test, health officials in Poland revealed this week. The study that resulted in the discovery was supported by the country’s Ministry of Health and Medical Research Agency and involved around 1,500 patients with Covid-19. Researchers from the Medical University of Bialystok identified a gene in chromosome 3 that significantly influences how badly the virus will affect an individual. “After more than a year and a half of work, it was possible to identify a gene responsible for a predisposition to becoming seriously ill [with Covid],” Health Minister Adam Niedzielski said at a press conference on Jan 13. The findings will now be applied to help identify patients at increased risk from the virus when or even before they contract the infection. The Health Ministry plans to develop and launch a “relatively simple” and quick genetic test that can be performed alongside PCR screening within a few months. It could also be implemented around the world to help people with apparent genetic preconditions, Polish officials said. Click here to read... [30]

EU warned about ‘twindemic’

The spread of influenza across Europe has sparked concerns about the risk of a prolonged ‘twindemic’, as the high Covid transmission rate raises fears about the pressure on already overstretched European health systems. A combination of Covid lockdowns, enforced mask-wearing, and social distancing requirements throughout the continent helped to almost eradicate the flu last winter, experts said. However, the ECDC believes relaxed restrictions are set to result in a resurgence of influenza cases. The European organization has reported that the flu virus is spreading across the continent at a higher-than-expected rate, with cases in intensive care units rising at the end of December. Speaking to Reuters, the ECDC’s influenza expert, Pais Penttinen, expressed “big concern” about influenza as countries “start to lift all measures,” warning cases might “shift away from normal seasonal patterns.” Removing Covid restrictions before the end of spring could see a prolonging of the twindemic with Covid and influenza beyond May, according to the ECDC, putting extra pressure on health services that are already overstretched. Concerns have been exacerbated by the flu variant that has become dominant this season, as the H3 of the A virus usually causes severe cases of the illness among elderly patients, potentially impacting hospitalization rates. Click here to read... [31]