Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 03 January 2022 - 09 January 2022

Economic

US becomes world’s top LNG exporter for first time ever

The U.S. became the world’s No. 1 exporter of liquefied natural gas for the first time ever last month, as deliveries surged to energy-starved Europe. Output from American facilities edged above Qatar in December after a jump in exports from the Sabine Pass and Freeport facilities, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Cheniere Energy Inc. said last month that a new production unit at its Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana produced its first cargo. A shale gas revolution, coupled with billions of dollars of investments in liquefaction facilities, transformed the U.S. from a net LNG importer to a top exporter in less than a decade. Gas production has surged by roughly 70% from 2010 and the nation is expected to have the world’s largest export capacity by the end of 2022 once Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass terminal comes online. But the U.S.’s position as top LNG shipper may be short-lived. Exports were just a hair above those from Qatar and Australia, and any production issues could affect the rankings. Looking further out, Qatar is planning a gargantuan export project that will come online in the late 2020s, which could cement the middle eastern nation as the top supplier of the fuel. Click here to read... [2]

China’s smartest students are ditching finance for tech, and prefer state jobs over the private sector

The job choices of graduates from China’s top two prestigious universities, Tsinghua University and the Peking University, are often seen as an indicator for the direction of the whole country. At Tsinghua, only 12.2 per cent of graduates landed jobs in banking, securities and insurance in 2021, about half the 22 per cent who opted for information technology and software businesses. It is the first-time finance has dropped out of the top three sectors for Tsinghua graduates, according to data compiled by the school, which started tracking such trends in 2013. The situation is similar for Peking University graduates. Students from the top schools are also less willing to study abroad or join the private sector. The percentage of new graduates seeking further education abroad has plunged amid Covid-19 travel disruptions and worsening China-US relations. Only 6.9 per cent of Tsinghua graduates, or one in 15, chose to study abroad after their 2021 graduation, compared to 9.6 per cent in 2020. However, a particularly worrying trend is that China’s best educated young people are showing a preference for job stability and career predictability over entrepreneurship. At Tsinghua, nearly 70 per cent of graduates chose to join government agencies, publicly funded institutions and state-owned enterprises, or traditional “iron rice bowls”. Click here to read... [3]

US Democrats won’t back sanctions against Nord Stream 2 pipeline – media

Despite consistently criticizing the Nord Stream 2 project, for many years, American Democrats are reportedly planning to derail next week’s vote on US sanctions against the Russian-backed natural gas pipeline. The party is making the U-turn because it doesn’t want to weaken President Joe Biden’s position in ongoing security discussions with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Politico suggested on Jan 05. Senators have apparently decided that imposing curbs on Nord Stream 2 now could undermine unity among America's allies in Europe and remove Biden’s key leverage in negotiations with the Russian leader. A bill that would force the US president to impose restrictions on the pipeline within 15 days – including travel limitations, asset freezes, and bans on doing business with American firms – is being promoted by Republican Senator Ted Cruz. He needs the support of at least 10 Democrats for it to pass the 60-vote threshold and become law. Moscow and Washington engaged in talks late last year in the wake of US claims that Russia is preparing an invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin has denied such an intention, labelling it an attempt to stir “hysteria" and demanded written guarantees from Washington and NATO that the US-led bloc will cease its eastward expansion and activities near the Russian border. Click here to read... [4]

China-Australia relations: more Russian pipeline gas could be ‘political hedge’ for Beijing

China is seeking to fast-track a second channel to double the supply of natural gas from “comprehensive strategic partner” Russia, which could give Beijing an upper hand in dealing with Canberra, according to analysts. The Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which will be built by Gazprom, could pump 50 billion cubic metres of gas annually to northern China, and Russian President Vladimir Putin said last month that a feasibility study on the pipeline would be finished very soon. “Just as it makes sense for the EU to use [liquefied natural gas] as a political hedge … it makes sense for China to use Russian pipeline gas as a political hedge or backup for its high reliance on LNG – large amounts of which come from Australia and the United States, with whom Beijing’s relations have deteriorated over the past years,” said Henning Gloystein, director of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group. The world’s second-largest economy imported 43 per cent of its gas requirements in 2020, including 89 billion cubic metres of LNG and 46 billion cubic metres of pipeline gas, according to the General Administration of Customs. About 43 per cent of its LNG imports are from Australia. Click here to read... [5]

Kazakhstan turmoil slams bitcoin as key mining hub cut off

Bitcoin prices have dropped more than 10% in recent days as widespread protests rock Kazakhstan, one of the world's top hubs for cryptocurrency mining. Bitcoin hovered around the $42,000-mark late Jan 07 night, down from over $48,000 at the end of 2021, according to CoinDesk. New bitcoins enter into circulation as a reward to miners for solving complex mathematical problems. The hash rate, which measures the total computing power used for mining, plunged Jan 05 after the Kazakh government ordered a leading telecommunications provider to cut internet access across the country. The shutdown came in a response to deadly protests over surging prices of liquefied petroleum gas, used as a fuel by many motorists in Kazakhstan. Many cryptocurrency miners had moved to Kazakhstan to take advantage of cheap electricity there after neighboring China, then another leading hub, banned them in May 2021. Kazakhstan was responsible for about 18% of the global hash rate as of August, second only to the U.S., according to the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance. A protracted internet blackout could force bitcoin miners in Kazakhstan to close shop or move elsewhere. "Speculation that these operators could then unload bitcoins triggered a chain of selling," said the head of a major Japanese virtual currency exchange. Click here to read... [6]

FAA identifies dozens of airports affected by 5G rollout

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has released a list of US airports that will have 5G buffer zones around them following concerns that expansion of the network could interfere with aircraft safety systems. Two of the country’s largest telecom firms, AT&T and Verizon, are struggling to roll out their “game changing” C-band 5G networks as they negotiate with government officials. The original date set for December had previously been postponed until January 5, and then for another two weeks. Now the FAA says the carriers have agreed to keep their 5G towers offline around dozens of airports for at least another six months. Major cities like Los Angeles, Las Vegas, New York City, Miami, and Dallas will include airports with the so-called buffer zones. Some airports have not been included either because they already have a natural buffer zone, or there are no plans to deploy the 5G tech in the immediate vicinity such as airports in Atlanta, Georgia and Denver, Colorado. The concern among regulators is that the C-band 5G could potentially disrupt airplane instruments, like radio altimeters which provide information on the height aircrafts are above the ground, a safety system important for low visibility landings. Airline industry leaders have warned the 5G plan could cause thousands of disruptions to upcoming flights. Click here to read... [7]

Taiwan sets up $200m Lithuania investment fund amid China dispute

Taiwan will create a $200 million fund to invest in Lithuanian industries and boost bilateral trade, it said on Jan 05, as the fiercely democratic island seeks to fend off diplomatic pressure on the Baltic state from China. Lithuania is under pressure from the China to reverse its decision last year to allow self-ruled Taiwan to open a representative office - a de facto embassy - in Vilnius under its own name. China has never renounced the use of force to ensure eventual unification. The strategic investment fund will be funded by Taiwan's national development fund and will be backed by the Taiwan central bank, the head of Taiwan's representative office in Lithuania, Eric Huang, told an online news conference. "We will establish the fund as soon as possible and we hope this year we will have some tangible results ... I can imagine the first top priorities will be semiconductor, laser (and) biotechnology," Huang said. Taiwan will be also accelerate its approval process for Lithuanian diary and grain exports into Taiwan, and will seek to link Lithuanian businesses into Taiwanese supply chains, he added. Click here to read... [8]

Sri Lanka's president asks China to restructure debt repayments

Sri Lanka's President Gotabaya Rajapaksa asked China to help restructure debt repayments as part of efforts to help the South Asian country weather a worsening financial crisis, his office said in a statement on Jan 09. Rajapaksa made the request during a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Colombo on Jan 09. Sri Lanka has benefited from billions of dollars in soft loans from China but the island nation is currently in the midst of a foreign exchange crisis placing it on the verge of default, according to analysts. "The president pointed out that it would be a great relief to the country if attention could be paid on restructuring the debt repayments as a solution to the economic crisis that has arisen in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic," Rajapaksa's office said in the statement. China is Sri Lanka's fourth biggest lender, behind international financial markets, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Japan. Rajapaksa also requested China to provide "concessional terms" for its exports to Sri Lanka, which amounted to about $3.5 billion in 2020, the statement said, but did not give more details. Click here to read... [9]

China's zero-COVID policy tops risk list for 2022: Eurasia Group

China's strict adherence to a zero-COVID policy will backfire in 2022, consultancy Eurasia Group predicts in its list of top political risks for the year, causing problems far beyond the country's borders. The U.S.-based group also sees the growing influence of tech giants and the American midterm elections as key risk factors to watch, along with Russia, Turkey and the global transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Overall, the analysts warn, the lack of global leadership "is clearer than ever." "China is in the most difficult situation because of a zero-COVID policy that looked incredibly successful in 2020, but now has become a fight against a much more transmissible variant with broader lockdowns and vaccines with limited effectiveness," Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan say of their No. 1 risk. The "technopolar world," in which big tech companies are the main actors and enforcers in the digital space, comes in as the second top risk. They note that key parts of people's daily lives and some essential functions of the state increasingly exist in the digital realm, whose future is being shaped by tech companies and decentralized blockchain projects. Eurasia Group says government policies, such as new laws in the European Union that will put curbs on some business practices by big tech companies, will do little to reduce their influence. Click here to read... [10]

'Resource nationalism' threatens Korea's energy supply

The global economy is being affected once again by resource nationalism, which has reared its head since the beginning of the new year with mineral-rich countries closing their doors to exports and asserting control over their raw materials. This comes as a significant threat to Korea, which is heavily dependent on imports of natural resources to meet its energy and production needs. The energy resource crisis stems from multiple factors, such as supply chain disruptions caused by the U.S.-China trade row, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the growing carbon neutrality trend which has increased the cost of metals and minerals that are essential for producing solar power, wind power, electric vehicles and other renewable energy technologies. Experts said that countries with abundant resources will increasingly pursue more nationalistic strategies to exercise control over resources in 2022 and those suffering from a lack of raw materials like Korea should come up with measures to secure a stable supply of energy resource materials, such as helping private companies actively seek overseas resource development projects. On Dec. 31, the Indonesian government announced it was banning coal exports for a month as supplies at its domestic power plants fell to critically low levels, which consequently raised risks of blackouts. Click here to read... [11]

Libyan PM orders immediate reopening of major oilfields

Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah on Jan 10 ordered the immediate reopening of major oilfields in the country. Dbeibah gave the orders during a meeting here with the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), a Libyan oil company and militia that controls much of the oil and gas infrastructure in Libya. "The Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity was briefed on the requests of the PFG and issued instructions to reopen the Sharara, El-Feel, and Al-Wafa oilfields immediately," the government's information office said in a statement. "The Prime Minister also issued instructions to form a committee to address the issues that the Guard's personnel encounter while fulfilling their duties," the statement reads. According to the state-owned National Oil Corporation, Libya's daily oil production has declined by 500,000 barrels per day recently due to maintenance work in some oilfields and previous shutdowns of oil production by the PFG in other oilfields. Click here to read... [12]

Strategic

China to host Iranian foreign minister amid US pressure over nuclear talks

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian is to visit China later this week, local media reported, as pressure grows to resurrect the Iran nuclear deal. Amir-Abdollahian’s trip, reported by Iran Press news agency, will be the first to China by a member of the Iranian cabinet since Ebrahim Raisi became president in August. Foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said on Jan 10 that the 25-year agreement on economic and security cooperation, signed with China last March, would be high on the agenda. The visit was announced as Iran’s main Sunni rivals in the region also sent delegations to China. Leaders in Saudi Arabia and other Arab states believe that any deal with Iran should go beyond nuclear issues and also cover its missile programmes and activities, which they say destabilise the region. On Jan 08, the Chinese foreign ministry said that foreign ministers from four of the six members of the GCC – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain – as well as GCC secretary general Nayef Falah al-Hajraf would visit China from Jan 10 at Beijing’s invitation, with energy supply security and the Iran nuclear deal among the items on the agenda. Click here to read... [13]

Israel says it will not be ‘bound’ by future Iran deal

Tel Aviv is “concerned” about the potential outcome of the Vienna talks on the Iranian nuclear program that might be unfavorable to Israel, the prime minister has said, adding that its military would still act as they see fit. “Israel is not part of the agreements,” Bennett told the Israeli parliament’s powerful Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Jan 10. Tel Aviv “is not bound by what is written in the agreements if they are signed,” he added. The prime minister maintained that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will do whatever is deemed necessary to ensure Israel’s security. It will also make sure to retain “full freedom of operation in any place and at any time, with no limitations,” Bennett said. Still, he admitted that “in terms of “the Vienna talks, the nuclear talks, we are indeed concerned.” According to the Israeli media, Tel Aviv fears that the talks might end up in a deal that it would deem unacceptable or no agreement at all. The Times of Israel also reported that the IDF was “working intensively” to prepare a potential military strike on Iran’s nuclear sites in case of such an outcome. It did not cite any sources or data to justify this claim, though. Click here to read... [14]

U.S., Japan hail stronger ties, including 2 new defense deals

Seeking to deepen their defense cooperation, the United States and Japan will soon sign a new five-year agreement on sharing the cost of the American military presence in Japan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Jan 06. Speaking at the outset of a virtual conference between the U.S. and Japanese foreign and defense ministers, Blinken said Tokyo and Washington also will sign a deal on collaborating more closely in research and development of defense-related technologies, including ways to counter threats from hypersonic weapons. The agreement on a new formula for sharing the cost of the American military presence in Japan ends a Trump-era dispute that had been a significant irritant in U.S.-Japan relations. Blinken said the new deal will enable greater investment in the readiness of both countries’ forces and improve their ability to operate together. The U.S. and Japan are increasingly worried about threats from North Korea, which on Jan 05 fired a ballistic missile into the sea in its first weapons launch in about two months. The test of what the North says was a “hypersonic missile” was widely seen as a signal that Pyongyang isn’t interested in rejoining denuclearization talks anytime soon and would rather focus on boosting its weapons arsenal. Click here to read... [15]

China urged to push for better ties with Japan and seek three-way talks with US

China has been urged to look for ways to mend ties with Japan and push forward three-way security talks involving Tokyo and Washington. Zhang Tuosheng, director of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, wrote in an academic journal that war must no longer be seen as a way to settle disputes. “China and Japan should also consider jointly promoting the China-Japan-US trilateral security dialogue at an appropriate time, discussing many security issues ... to reduce misunderstandings and misjudgments,” Zhang said. In the article, Zhang, a former instructor at the Military Academy of the People’s Liberation Army, said the lack of crisis management could lead to a full military confrontation between China and the United States, which would in turn damage relations with Japan, a key US ally. The article was published in late December in the international relations journal China International Strategy Review. Tokyo has responded to mounting tensions by approving a record defence budget and strengthening its security ties with Australia and America. Click here to read... [16]

Is China’s Horn of Africa peace drive a sign of growing confidence on the world stage?

China’s pledge to appoint a Horn of Africa peace envoy has been interpreted by some regional observers as an “official” move away from its traditional position of non-intervention in other countries’ affairs and a sign of its growing confidence on the international stage. Foreign Minister Wang Yi also called for a regional peace conference during his visit to Kenya last week, in which he praised the region’s “unique strategic position and great development potential”. But the region – home to Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan – has witnessed civil wars, Islamist insurgencies, and military coups that had threatened investments into the region. Analysts also point to the vast investments Chinese companies have made across the region, including key infrastructure such as ports and railways, as another reason for its intervention. Seifudein Adem, a professor of global studies at Doshisha University in Kyoto, Japan, said the appointment of an envoy shows China has realised the geo-strategic value of the Horn of Africa and is ready to “officially and openly” put aside its “principle of non-interference” when its interests dictate. Click here to read... [17]

Uighurs in Turkey file criminal case against Chinese officials

Nineteen people from China’s Uighur Muslim ethnic group have filed a criminal complaint with a Turkish prosecutor against Chinese officials, accusing them of committing genocide, torture, rape and crimes against humanity. Lawyer Gulden Sonmez said on Jan 04 it was necessary because international bodies had not acted against Chinese authorities, who have been accused of facilitating forced labour by detaining about a million Uighurs and other primarily Muslim minorities in camps since 2016. China initially denied the camps existed but has since said they are vocational centres and are designed to combat extremism. It denies all accusations of abuse. About 50,000 Uighurs – with whom Turks share ethnic, religious and linguistic connections – are believed to reside in Turkey, the largest Uighur diaspora outside Central Asia. The complaint was filed on Jan 04 with the Istanbul Chief Prosecutor’s Office. China’s embassy in Turkey and the prosecutor’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment. “The international criminal court should have already started this trial, but China is a member of the [United Nations] Security Council and it does not seem possible within this dynamic,” Sonmez said outside the city’s main court. Click here to read... [18]

Terror group Jemaah Islamiah wants to ‘take over’ Indonesia by infiltrating state institutions, with aim of creating caliphate

When an Indonesian politician, several civil servants and a senior Muslim cleric were in 2020 arrested for alleged ties to the al Qaeda-linked Jemaah Islamiah group, Indonesians were shocked. It revealed how some alleged members of the militant group, which carried out the 2002 Bali bombings, were entrenched in influential positions. But Ahmad Nurwakhid, a deputy official for terrorism prevention at Indonesia’s National Counter-Terrorism Agency (BNPT), said the development was only a reflection of Jemaah Islamiah’s calculated efforts over the past decade to infiltrate state institutions in its bid to turn the world’s most populous Muslim country, officially a secular democracy, into a caliphate. The group is seeking to influence policies in the political, social and religious field to support its agenda to establish “its version of sharia law and a caliphate”, Ahmad said. “To accelerate taking over power [from the government], Jemaah Islamiah has to use state and government institutions, including the military and the police,” he said. “That is JI’s strategy.” Between 2010 and last December, Indonesian police arrested 31 civil servants for involvement in terrorism, including eight personnel from the police force, five from the military, as well as 18 public servants. Click here to read... [19]

U.S.-Russia security talks end without diplomatic breakthrough

A new round of security talks between the United States and Russia concluded Jan 10 evening in Geneva without yielding any diplomatic breakthrough. While the U.S. side called the latest talks between the two major global powers "our diplomacy in pursuit of a de-escalation with Russia," the Russian side called the talks U.S.-Russia "security guarantees negotiations." Like the two previous bilateral U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability Dialogues in Geneva last year, the U.S. delegation is headed by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, while the Russian side is headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. "The talks were difficult, long, very professional, deep, concrete, without attempts to gloss over some sharp edges," Ryabkov told a press briefing after the talks. "We had the feeling that the American side took the Russian proposals very seriously and studied them deeply." Sherman told a separate press briefing after the talks that "We had a frank and forthright discussion over the course of nearly eight hours at the U.S. Mission in Geneva. This is the third time the U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability Dialogue has convened since President Biden and President Putin met in Geneva last June." Click here to read... [20]

Kazakhstan president steps up security purge after unrest

Kazakhstan's president fired two more top security officials on Jan 09 after the worst unrest in three decades of post-Soviet independence and authorities said the situation was stabilizing, with Russian-led troops guarding key facilities. The sacked officials were deputies to former intelligence chief Karim Massimov, who was arrested on suspicion of treason after violent protests swept the oil- and uranium-producing Central Asian republic that borders Russia and China. Thousands of people have been detained and public buildings torched during mass anti-government protests in the past week. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev issued shoot-to-kill orders to end unrest he has blamed on bandits and terrorists. No single group has emerged to speak for the protesters. Demonstrations against a fuel price rise began a week ago before erupting into a wider protest against Tokayev's government and the man he replaced as veteran president, 81-year-old Nursultan Nazarbayev. At Tokayev's invitation, a Russia-led alliance of ex-Soviet states -- the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) -- sent troops to restore order, an intervention that comes at a time of high tension in Russia-U.S. relations ahead of talks this week on the Ukraine crisis. Click here to read... [21]

China says it supports Russia deploying forces to Kazakhstan to quell unrest

China supports Russian-led forces deployed to Kazakhstan to help quell unrest, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov late on Jan 10. In a phone call held between the two parties and summarized by Chinese state media, Wang said that China supports the Kazakhstan president’s assessment that the source of the unrest was terrorist activity. Wang added that China and Russia should “oppose external forces interfering with the internal affairs of central Asian countries,” and prevent “color revolutions” and the “three evil forces” from causing chaos, the readout stated. China defines the “three evil forces” as religious extremism, territorial secessionism and violent terrorism and has described them as the cause behind the instability in Xinjiang province. Government buildings in Kazakhstan were briefly captured or torched in several cities last week as initially peaceful protests against fuel price increases turned violent. Troops were ordered to shoot to kill to put down a countrywide uprising. Authorities have blamed the violence on “extremists” including foreign-trained Islamist militants. Authorities also asked a Russian-led military bloc to send in troops, who the government says have been deployed to guard strategic sites. China’s President Xi Jinping on Jan 07 told Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev that China resolutely opposed any force destabilizing Kazakhstan, Chinese state television said. Click here to read... [22]

Japan and Australia strengthen quasi-alliance with eye on China

The defense agreement signed Jan 06 by Japan and Australia smooths the way for joint drills by their armed forces with an eye on China, marking Tokyo's first pact of its kind with a nation other than its ally, the U.S. Concerns over China were underscored in the statement issued by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Australian counterpart Scott Morrison after their virtual meeting. The statement said that the Reciprocal Access Agreement will "facilitate cooperative activities such as joint exercises and disaster relief operations, including those of greater scale and complexity" between the Australian military and Japan's Self-Defense Forces. Japan's Foreign Ministry sees the deal -- which took seven and a half years to sign -- as a template for faster negotiations with other partners such as the U.K., with which Tokyo recently entered talks on reciprocal access. The new agreement simplifies entry procedures for each country's forces and clarifies their legal status, including which laws apply under what circumstances. While Australia's military is smaller than Japan's, at just under 60,000 troops compared with the 220,000-strong SDF, it has participated in combat operations including the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Japan looks to learn from its battlefield experience. Click here to read... [23]

Seoul rejects North Korea's 'hypersonic missile' claim

South Korea's defense ministry on Jan 07 dismissed North Korea's claim that it tested a hypersonic missile, saying instead that the regime likely fired a conventional ballistic missile this week. North Korean state media reported that a hypersonic missile launched Jan 05 "precisely hit" a target 700 km away. The missile also made a "120-km lateral movement" during the flight, the report said, demonstrating the capabilities of the gliding warhead. An official affiliated with South Korea's Ministry of National Defense said the missile traveled six times the speed of sound at an altitude below 50 km. But the weapon did not travel 700 km, according to the official. An assessment points to the device being a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV), a type that is mounted on ballistic missiles. This means that the weapon does not meet the generally accepted definition of a hypersonic missile, even if its speed was at least five times the speed of sound. Hypersonic missiles come in two varieties: glide vehicles that are released from rocket boosters in midflight, and cruise missiles. The Hwasong-8 missile test-fired by the North on Sept. 28 appeared to be a hypersonic glide vehicle, the official said. Click here to read... [24]

Cambodian PM becomes 1st leader to meet Myanmar military chief

Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen on Jan 07 became the first foreign leader to visit Myanmar and meet the regime's leader, Min Aung Hlaing, since the military overthrew the country's elected government in February last year. The two leaders discussed bilateral relations in a 140-minute meeting in the capital of Naypyidaw, according to Myanmar military spokesperson Zaw Min Tun. They agreed that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' special envoy -- Cambodia holds the rotating ASEAN chair this year -- could be involved in the Myanmar peace process. The army's takeover followed Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy's second consecutive landslide victory at the polls in 2020, which the military refused to recognize citing unsubstantiated allegations of voter fraud. The ensuing political crisis has morphed into an escalating civil war after security forces killed over 1,000 peaceful protesters. Witnesses in the Myanmar capital said security in the city was heightened ahead of Hun Sen's arrival. The military and police trucks were monitoring all roads connected to the airport, the hotel where the delegation is staying, and the presidential palace. The trip has sparked outrage among critics who say it will confer legitimacy on the military regime, which no government has officially recognized. Click here to read... [25]

Myanmar's Suu Kyi sentenced to 4 more years in prison

A court in Myanmar sentenced ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi to four more years in prison on Jan 10 after finding her guilty of illegally importing and possessing walkie-talkies and violating coronavirus restrictions, a legal official said. Suu Kyi was convicted last month on two other charges and given a four-year prison sentence, which was then halved by the head of the military-installed government. The cases are among about a dozen brought against the 76-year-old Nobel Peace Prize laureate since the army seized power last February, ousting her elected government and arresting top members of her National League for Democracy party. If found guilty of all the charges, she could be sentenced to more than 100 years in prison. Suu Kyi’s supporters and independent analysts say the charges against her are contrived to legitimize the military’s seizure of power and prevent her from returning to politics. Jan 10's verdict in the court in the capital, Naypyitaw, was conveyed by a legal official who insisted on anonymity for fear of being punished by the authorities, who have restricted the release of information about Suu Kyi’s trials. He said she was sentenced to two years in prison under the Export-Import Law for importing the walkie-talkies and one year under the Telecommunications Law for possessing them. Click here to read... [26]

Why China transferred a submarine to Myanmar

In a videolink on Dec 15, 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged support for each other amid rising tensions with America over Taiwan and the Ukraine. Nine days later, that competitive dynamic was on display as Beijing stole a march on Moscow when it transferred a Chinese-manufactured submarine to the Myanmar Navy, UMS Minye Kyaw Htin. In October 2020, Moscow allowed India to transfer a Soviet-built Kilo-class submarine to the Myanmar Navy. The sale was in both India’s and Russia’s interests. Myanmar bought the vessel from India using credit intended to strengthen defence ties with Naypyidaw in an effort to counter China’s influence. For Russia, the ex-Indian submarine provided the Myanmar Navy with a useful training platform to familiarise itself with Russian technology. Russia is eager to sell submarines to Myanmar to make up for falling defence sales in other Southeast Asian countries (particularly its biggest regional customer, Vietnam) and to usurp China as the junta’s number one arms supplier. China appears to be pushing back. But whereas Russia’s motivation is purely commercial, China’s rationale is geopolitical: Maintaining influence over Myanmar’s generals. Click here to read... [27]

Iran says won’t officially recognise Taliban after Tehran talks

Iran is still some time away from officially recognising the Taliban as the government of neighbouring Afghanistan, its foreign ministry says, after a meeting with the group in Tehran. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said Jan 09’s high-level talks with Taliban representatives were “positive”, but Iran is still “not at the point of officially recognising Taliban”. “The current condition of Afghanistan is a major concern for the Islamic Republic of Iran and the visit of the Afghan delegation was within the framework of these concerns,” he added in a press conference on Jan 10. The Taliban delegation, led by the group’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, met their Iranian counterparts led by Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian. It was the first such visit by a Taliban delegation since the group caused the collapse of the country’s Western-backed government amid the chaotic withdrawal of the United States-led forces in August. Since the fall of Kabul, Iran’s official position has been that it will only recognise the Taliban if they manage to form an “inclusive” government. Iran and the Taliban have been in contact since, with special Iranian envoy Hassan Kazemi-Qomi making several trips to Afghanistan in recent months. Click here to read... [28]

China names former paramilitary chief as HK garrison commander

China has appointed a former paramilitary chief, Peng Jingtang, as the new commander of the People Liberation Army’s (PLA) garrison in Hong Kong, state broadcaster CCTV reported late on Jan 09 citing the PLA spokesman. Peng, who holds the rank of major general, was previously the deputy chief of staff of China’s paramilitary police force, the People’s Armed Police. His appointment was signed by Chinese President Xi Jinping, CCTV said. According to the party-run Global Times, a nationalist tabloid, Peng was previously also chief of staff of the Armed Police Force in Xinjiang, where the United Nations, the United States and others say China has detained at least one million people from the Uighur ethnic minority. China denies any abuses in the far western region and says the camps are skills training centres and necessary to counter “extremism”. The PLA maintains a garrison in Hong Kong but has kept a low profile. CCTV quoted Peng as saying that he would work with all members of the garrison to follow the command of the ruling Communist Party and Xi, and resolutely defend national sovereignty and security interests. Under the territory’s mini constitution, the Basic Law, defence and foreign affairs are managed by Communist Party leaders in Beijing. Click here to read... [29]

U.N. starts talks in Sudan to resolve post-coup crisis

The United Nations said it was starting consultations in Sudan on Jan 10 to try to salvage the country's move to democracy after a military coup. U.N. officials was contacting parties to look for a way forward, and the army had raised no objections to the initiative, U.N. special representative Volker Perthes told reporters. "We want to move quickly," he said. The U.N. plan amounts to the only substantial effort at present to resolve the political crisis. The military takeover in October wrecked a power-sharing arrangement with civilian leaders that was meant to pave the way to elections after the overthrow of leader Omar al-Bashir in 2019. The coup also halted a Western-backed opening up of the economy after decades of isolation and sanctions. Protesters have regularly taken to the streets demanding civilian rule, and medics aligned with the protest movement say more than 60 people have died in clashes with security services. "I do hope that these consultations can become something like a confidence-building measure and would help to at least reduce the violence," Perthes said. Click here to read... [30]

Medical

Beijing authorities warn residents not to try to help Olympic vehicles if they are involved in a road accident because of strict Covid controls

The Beijing city authorities have told residents to avoid all contact with Olympic vehicles, not even trying to help after a road accident, as the Chinese capital tightened its Covid-19 rules ahead of next month’s Winter Games. The city’s traffic management bureau said on Jan 09 that residents who are involved in an accident with one of the vehicles ferrying athletes, coaches and officials should not ask drivers and passengers to get out but wait for “professionals” to arrive on the scene. Last week Olympic officials and volunteers entered a “closed-loop” – designed to seal participants off from any outbreak in the outside world and contain any cases among Olympic personnel within the isolation bubble. “To effectively prevent pandemic risks, overseas Olympic-related personnel and relevant domestic security personnel will be under full-process, fully closed, point-to-point closed-loop management,” the local police told Beijing Daily on Jan 09. The local government also called on residents to give way to vehicles carrying designated Olympic logos on the roads and keep their distance in the event of a road accident. China has imposed ­stringent requirements for the Games, requiring everyone within the closed-loop to take daily coronavirus tests, banning overseas spectators and urging those attending not to shout or cheer in support of the athletes. Click here to read... [31]

Common cold could protect you from Covid – study

Higher levels of T cells caused by the common cold make it less likely that a person will catch Covid, according to an “important discovery” outlined in a new peer-reviewed study. The study, released on Jan 10 by researchers at Imperial College London, is the “first evidence of a protective role for these T cells,” finding that their presence in high levels after a common cold can help to protect against Covid infection. “Our study provides the clearest evidence to date that T cells induced by common cold coronaviruses play a protective role against SARS-CoV-2 infection,” Professor Ajit Lalvani, senior author of the study, wrote. He said the cells “provide protection by attacking proteins within the virus, rather than the spike protein on its surface.” The study began in September 2020, at a time when most UK citizens had not been infected with Covid, taking blood samples from participants within six days of them being exposed to the virus. It explored the levels of T cells created by the common cold that cross-recognized the Covid proteins. In individuals who did not become infected with Covid, the levels of cross-reactive T cells were substantially higher than in those who caught the virus, showing that T cells target the internal proteins in Covid. Click here to read... [32]