Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 30 August - 05 September 2021

Economic

China’s Xi Jinping, Liu He move to reassure private sector as Beijing’s Big Tech crackdown rattles entrepreneurs

On Sept 06, both Chinese President Xi Jinping and his top economic adviser, Vice-Premier Liu He, sent strong messages of support to the private sector, saying its role in the nation’s economic development had not been diminished. Liu said private firms must be offered “vigorous” support so they can play a more significant part in growing China’s economy, creating jobs and deepening technological innovation. But the comments come against a backdrop of deep uncertainty for many in the private sector, as Beijing tightens oversight on industries ranging from private after-school tutoring and Big Tech companies to celebrity culture. “There are no changes in the principles and policies for supporting the development of the private economy; they have not changed now and will not change in the future,” Liu said in a video speech to a digital economy expo in Hebei province on Monday. “The private economy has contributed more than 50 per cent of total tax revenue, more than 60 per cent of gross domestic product, more than 70 per cent of China’s technological innovation, more than 80 per cent of urban employment, and makes up more than 90 per cent of market entities.
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China to set up a stock exchange in Beijing in major strategic move to bolster capital market

China will set up a stock exchange in Beijing and build the capital city into a major base for innovative small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), Chinese President Xi Jinping announced on Sept 04. The move will improve the multi-level structure of China's capital market, making it more dynamic and resilient, and will play a significant role in the country's push for innovation-driven high-quality growth, officials and analysts noted. The move also comes as China has prioritized efforts to prevent major financial risks through tightening regulations and as the US continues to push for a financial decoupling by cracking down on US-listed Chinese firms. Addressing the 2021 China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) via video, Xi said that China will continue to support the innovation-driven development of SMEs by setting up a Beijing Stock Exchange as the primary platform serving innovation-oriented SMEs, the Xinhua News Agency reported. China will also deepen the reform of the National Equities Exchange and Quotations, known as the "New Third Board," according to Xinhua.
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South Korea drafts bold spending plan, taking debt to 50% of GDP

South Korea plans to spend a record 604.4 trillion won ($518.4 billion) next year, 8.3% more than this year's budget before two emergency supplementary spending drafted to offer pandemic relief to households. The record spending plan will take South Korea's debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio to 50.2%, the largest on record. By 2025, South Korea expects the ratio at 58.8%, according to the ministry. The Aug. 31 budget is seen as a balancing act between pouring funds into badly needed social services to tackle an ageing economy and reduce rising income inequality, while avoiding putting further strain on the country's finances. About a third of the total expenditure, 216.7 trillion won, will be allocated for welfare and jobs, to cover rising social costs as the fastest-aging economy among the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) creates long-term problems for the country. The government has also earmarked 11.9 trillion won for spending on environment-related areas to work towards the country's carbon neutrality goal by 2050 and proposed 55.2 trillion won in spending on national defence.
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Japan launches agency to undo 'digital defeat': 5 things to know

Abe's successor, Suga, unveiled his Digital Agency proposal in September 2020 as a key economic policy. He tapped Digital Transformation Minister Takuya Hirai, an IT policy chief in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, to lead the preparations. A main reason for what Hirai called Japan's "digital defeat" was lack of integration. Each ministry and municipality has its own customized IT systems, making it difficult to share information. Critics said the so-called vendor lock-in in which municipalities became dependent on certain system vendors, inflates costs and stifles competition. The cabinet office already had an IT office made up of outside policy advisers and engineers to support the integration, but its authority was limited. The Digital Agency is essentially an upgrade to this body. One of the biggest projects will be GovCloud. Each government agency is now dependent on certain vendors to develop and manage IT systems, including data centres and applications. The Digital Agency will replace this patchwork with cloud computing platforms, such as Amazon Web Services, and let other agencies develop applications on top of this. The government hopes the move will not only cut costs but allow municipalities to roll out public services quickly.
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Sri Lanka's food emergency heightens fears of militarization

Sri Lanka's political opposition, importers and traders are up in arms after President Gotabaya Rajapaksa last week declared a state of emergency, allowing his government to dictate retail prices for essential food items and seize stocks from traders, as the country's foreign reserves dry up. Importers warn the emergency regulation could create a supply crisis, while opposition parties say the move endangers the country and inches it closer to authoritarianism. Since the Aug. 30 decree, traders and importers have had one meeting after another with trade ministry officials, pleading with them to reverse the decision. The decree gives sweeping powers to Rajapaksa's government to seize stocks of essential items, including sugar and rice, which authorities accuse traders of hoarding. Adding fuel to fire, the president has appointed M.D.S.P. Niwunhella, a major general in the Sri Lanka Army, as commissioner general of essential services and tasked him with ensuring "the supply of paddy [unharvested rice], rice, sugar and other consumer goods that are essential to maintain the livelihood of the people," according to a news release issued by the president's media division.
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Resurgent Taliban and shaken economy upend life in Afghanistan

The Taliban face an urgent early task to bolster Afghanistan's economy as workers stay at home and international donors withhold funds over the Islamist militant group's recapture of power. The World Bank announced last week that it was freezing financial support for Afghanistan, citing deep concerns over the prospects for women now that the Taliban control the country. The International Monetary Fund is also pausing disbursement of economic aid, as the Taliban are not recognized by the international community. International aid accounts for more than 60% of Afghanistan's state budget. The Taliban would build the economy once the conflict has subsided, the Islamist group's spokesman said in an Aug. 17 news conference. Afghanistan would be a "narcotics-free country" whose economy would revitalize through tapping natural resources instead, the spokesman added. The pronouncement ran counter to a report released by the United Nations in June detailing how the Taliban are funded. "The primary sources of Taliban financing remain criminal activities, including drug trafficking and opium poppy production, extortion, kidnapping for ransom, mineral exploitation and revenues from tax collection in areas under Taliban control or influence," the report stated.
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China shuts down American Chamber of Commerce in south-western city of Chengdu

On Aug 31, officials from the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Southwest China told media that Chinese authorities had instructed them to cease operations in Chengdu. The officials said they had been told to “no longer carry out any activities in the name of the American Chamber of Commerce in Southwest China. On Aug 31, the official website for AmCham in Southwest China was down. The chamber’s chairman, Benjamin Wang, told Reuters that they were in discussion with Chinese authorities over the future direction of the business advocacy group, but said they had not yet been given specific reasons for the forced closure. Wang said that China's Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA) was seemingly imposing a law that restricted countries with a presence in China to maintain only one official chamber of commerce. The US has five Chamber of Commerce offices in China, with 30 working groups. The closure comes as tensions between China and the US continue to simmer, with the ongoing trade war and disputes over human rights. Meanwhile, the US insisting on probing further into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic has further amplified animosity.
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‘End of one toxic era’: Environment groups welcome UN news that leaded petrol has been eradicated globally

The United Nations (UN) Environment Programme has celebrated the end of a “two-decade-long” mission to eradicate “toxic” leaded petrol, after the last country to use the fuel, Algeria, finally phased it out. Despite having initially been praised for powering the next generation of cars, planes and motorcycles, leaded petrol was found to be “toxic.” The fuel has been linked to health problems, including cancer, heart disease and strokes, as well as to premature deaths and development issues in children. Praising the eradication of the fuel, the UN Environment Programme’s Executive Director, Inner Anders, called it a “huge milestone for global health and our environment.” The UN’s Secretary-General Antonio Guterres echoed this statement, celebrating “the culmination of a global, decades-long effort to rid the world of lead in petrol.” While many countries had banned leaded fuel by the 1980s over concerns about its impact on people’s health, other nations didn't, with Algeria still using it in July this year. The UN Environment Programme has been working with governments around the world since 2002 to phase out the use of leaded petrol, describing the fuel as illustrating “in a nutshell, the kind of mistakes humanity has been making at every level of our societies.
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Reports of Guinea unrest send aluminium prices to 10-year high

Aluminium climbed to the highest in more than a decade as political unrest in Guinea fuelled concerns over supply of the raw material needed to make the metal. A unit of the military seized power and suspended the constitution, with head of special forces, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, urging the army to back him. That rattled global aluminium markets Sep 06 — prices in London notched a fresh 10-year high and futures in China climbed to the highest since 2006 — as the political instability raises the possibility of disruptions to bauxite shipments from the key global supplier. Aluminium has climbed about 40% this year in London as massive global stimulus measures stoked demand just as smelters in China, the biggest producer, struggled to maintain output during a seasonal power crunch and Beijing sought to rein in the country’s carbon emissions. Bauxite is the feedstock used to make alumina, which is further processed into aluminium and Guinea accounts for more than half of all of Chinese imports. The market “can be seriously shaken” by the situation, United Co. Rusal founder Oleg Deripaska said in a Telegram post.
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Strategic

Biden: US quits role as the world’s policeman

“America is back,” goes President Joe Biden’s catchphrase, but his unapologetic exit from Afghanistan shows America won’t be back to business as usual. Beyond the trauma of the Kabul evacuation, Biden is pitching a much broader retreat: a halt to using vast military resources to impose order and US values around the planet. “This decision about Afghanistan is not just about Afghanistan,” Biden said in what many see as a historic speech on Aug 31. “It’s about ending an era of major military operations to remake other countries.” “Human rights will be at the center of our foreign policy but the way to do that is not through endless military deployments,” he said. “Our strategy has to change.” Benjamin Haddad, director of the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council and an expert on transatlantic relations, called the speech “one of the most eloquent repudiations of liberal internationalism by any US president in the last decades.” For those Americans fond of imagining their country to be a unique, invincible superpower – winner of the Cold War, then awesome military interventionist everywhere from Iraq to Africa ever since – this is a shock. For most, though, polls show Biden’s pivot is likely to be popular.
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Google locks Afghan govt emails to keep from Taliban: Report

Google has temporarily locked down an unspecified number of Afghan government email accounts, according to a person familiar with the matter, as fears grow over the digital paper trail left by former officials and their international partners. In the weeks since the Taliban’s swift takeover of Afghanistan from a US-backed government, reports have highlighted how biometric and Afghan payroll databases might be exploited by the new rulers to hunt their enemies. In a statement on Sept 03, Alphabet Inc’s Google stopped short of confirming that Afghan government accounts were being locked down, saying that the company was monitoring the situation in Afghanistan and “taking temporary actions to secure relevant accounts”. One employee of the former government has told Reuters news agency the Taliban is seeking to acquire former officials’ emails. Publicly available mail exchanger records show that some two dozen Afghan government bodies used Google’s servers to handle official emails, including the ministries of finance, industry, higher education, and mines. Afghanistan’s office of the presidential protocol also used Google, according to the records, as did some local government bodies.
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UK will pay to shelter refugees in countries neighbouring Afghanistan

Britain said on Sept 03 it would release 30 million pounds ($41 million) of aid to support nations neighbouring Afghanistan dealing with refugees fleeing the country since the Taliban took control. The British government said 10 million pounds would immediately be made available to the U.N. refugee agency UNHCR and other humanitarian groups to help with shelters and sanitation facilities at the borders. The remainder will go to nations that experienced a significant number of refugees to provide essential services and supplies, it said. "It is vital that we help those fleeing Afghanistan and do not allow the crisis there to undermine regional stability," British foreign minister Dominic Raab said. The UNHCR has said up to half a million Afghans could flee their homeland by the end of the year. Many fleeing the country are believed to be heading to Pakistan, while another of Afghanistan's neighbours Tajikistan has pledged to accept 100,000 refugees. Earlier this month, Britain announced it would double its humanitarian and development aid to Afghanistan to 286 million pounds this year and Raab said on a visit to Qatar on Sept 02 there was a need to engage with the Taliban.
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Biden orders declassification of 9/11 investigation documents

US President Joe Biden has directed the Justice Department and other agencies to begin a six-month process of declassifying documents related to the FBI’s investigations into the September 11, 2001 attacks. The move on Sept 03 comes days before the 20th anniversary of the al-Qaeda attacks and a month after 9/11 survivors, first responders and family members of the nearly 3,000 victims wrote a sternly worded letter to the president. They accused the US of deliberately keeping the documents – which they say prove that Saudi government officials aided the al-Qaeda attackers – under wraps. “When I ran for president, I made a commitment to ensuring transparency regarding the declassification of documents on the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on America. As we approach the 20th anniversary of that tragic day, I am honouring that commitment,” Biden said in a statement on Sept 03. In their August letter, about 1,700 people directly affected by the September 11 attacks called on Biden to skip next week’s memorial events unless he released the documents. Biden’s Justice Department opened up a review of the classified documents shortly after the letter was sent.
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Iran says siege of Panjshir Valley contravenes international law

The Iranian Foreign Ministry said on Sept 06 that the blockade of the Panjshir Valley in north of Kabul by the Taliban contravenes international law and humanitarian law. The ministry reiterated Tehran’s position that there is only a political solution to the issues surrounding the Panjshir Valley.“There is only political solution to Panjshir and the siege of Panjshir is by no means acceptable in terms of international law and humanitarian law,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told a regular news briefing. The Taliban said on Sept 06 they have taken control of Panjshir province, AP reported. Panjshir was the last holdout of anti-Taliban forces in the country and the only province the Taliban had not seized during their blitz across Afghanistan last month. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid issued a statement saying Panjshir was now under full control of Taliban fighters. But the National Resistance Force (NRF) has strongly denied the claims. Khatibzadeh said reports from Panjshir are “worrying”. He added the attack on the province is condemned in the strongest terms. Khatibzadeh said the “martyrdom” of Afghan leaders is a “source of regret”. “No side must allow that this course lead to fratricide,” he said, adding that the Taliban should abide by international law.
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Aid is EU's bargaining chip in any Taliban recognition, says Slovenian EU presidency

The European Union is far from deciding whether to formally recognise the Taliban government in Afghanistan after it took over the country last month but EU aid money will determine what conditions might apply, Slovenia's foreign minister said. Anze Logar, whose country holds the six-month presidency of the EU, said the Taliban's designation as a terrorist organisation by some EU states meant that recognition was not just a diplomatic issue, but also a legal one."We are far from even tackling this question," Logar told Reuters late on Sept 01 in the Slovenian town of Bled, saying the decision was probably for EU leaders."It's likely to come to an exchange of views among heads of state," he said, pointing to two scheduled EU summits in October, in Belgium and Slovenia. EU foreign and defence ministers will also discuss Afghanistan on Sept 02 and Sept 03.The EU is the world's biggest aid donor. "Aid is the leverage that the European Union has," Logar said. "For Afghanistan and its economy, without this aid, it is the biggest blow to the citizens of the country, but there is a point of conditionality as well."Logar said EU policy should always be based on its values, which the bloc typically cites as human rights, democracy, and rule of law and freedom of expression.
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Chinese Essayist Revives Worries About a New Cultural Revolution

A pair of duelling essays from Chinese commentators on the Communist Party’s regulatory crackdown on some business sectors has sparked a broader public discussion about the direction of the country and whether it is heading toward turbulence not seen since the Cultural Revolution. Earlier this week, an essay that hailed Beijing’s regulatory campaign against the technology, education and entertainment industries as “a profound revolution” and advocated socio-political upheaval was re-circulated by China’s main state-media mouthpieces and widely shared online, evoking concerns that Beijing was sanctioning a return to a dark chapter in the nation’s turbulent history. That in turn prompted Hu Xijin, the editor in chief of the nationalist tabloid Global Times and one of the Communist Party’s most prominent voices, to issue a rebuttal on Sept 03 calling the essay a misinterpretation of the party’s direction. He argued that the overturning of the current order was uncalled for. Notably, however, Mr. Hu posted his commentary on his personal social media accounts, rather than via the Global Times, as he typically does. WeChat, a ubiquitous social-media platform, briefly blocked readers from sharing Mr. Hu’s post, suggesting that it was seen as too controversial for mass dissemination.
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Taiwan says China can 'paralyze' its defences

In its annual report to parliament on China's military, a copy of which was reviewed by Reuters, Taiwan's Defense Ministry presented a far graver view than it did last year, when the report said China still lacked the capability to launch a full assault on Taiwan. This year's report said that China can launch what it termed "soft and hard electronic attacks", including blocking communications across the western part of the first island chain, the string of islands that run from the Japanese archipelago, through Taiwan and down to the Philippines. China "can combine with its internet army to launch wired and wireless attacks against the global internet, which would initially paralyze our air defences, command of the sea and counter-attack system abilities, presenting a huge threat to us". China has also improved its reconnaissance abilities using Beidou, China's answer to the U.S.-owned GPS navigation system, the ministry added. This means Beijing can monitor movements around Taiwan, helped by China's regular use of its own spy planes, drones and intelligence gathering ships, it said. China's Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
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China flexes sea power with new foreign ship law

The new maritime law, which came into legal force September 1, threatens to inflame South China Sea disputes pitting China and Southeast Asian nations and stoke already rising tensions with the United States in the contested waters. On August 27, China’s Maritime Safety Administration said in a statement that five categories of foreign vessels, namely submersibles, nuclear-powered vessels, ships carrying radioactive materials, ships carrying bulk oil, chemicals, liquefied gas or other toxic substances, as well as vessels that may endanger China’s maritime traffic safety, fall under the law. Foreign vessels will be required to provide information including their ship names and numbers, recent locations, satellite telephone numbers and dangerous goods, according to the statement. If their automatic identification systems do not work properly, they will need to report to China’s maritime authorities about their locations and speeds every two hours until they leave the country’s territorial waters, the statement said. At face value, these are not necessarily problematic provisions – unless the definition of “Chinese territorial waters” is interpreted to include nearly all of the South China Sea, as claimed in its wide-reaching and hotly contested nine-dash line.
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Chinese military says it has a strategic air force – experts disagree

The Chinese military has claimed that it now has a strategic air force following years of advances, but analysts say a lack of adequate transport aircraft and bombers is holding it back. Their assessment followed Chinese air force spokesman Shen Jinke’s assertion on Aug 31 that, with advanced warplanes such as the J-20 and Y-20 entering service, China passed the threshold for having a strategic air force. There are expectations that China may unveil its next generation stealth bombers, such as the H-20, at the show. Over the years, China has launched advanced aircraft, such as its H6 bombers. But Ridzwan Rahmat, principal defence analyst at military publisher Janes, said China still lacked core abilities in comparison with major powers including its main rival the United States. “Being a strategic air power allows a country to achieve specific political results via the deployment of its aircraft,” Rahmat said. “To achieve such an outcome, the air force must be able to conduct the full spectrum of operations in modern warfare, including carrier strike group operations.
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Potential candidates jockeying for position in LDP presidential race

Lawmakers sensing a rare opportunity for drastic change in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are scrambling to curry favour from colleagues so they can secure the minimum of 20 supporters required to enter the party presidential race later this month. A crowded field emerged after the surprise announcement Sept. 3 by Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to bow out after only a year in office. He had been plagued by abysmal public approval ratings over his handling of the COVID-19 crisis. His predecessor as Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, who still wields considerable clout in the party, indicated Sept. 3 he will back Sanae Takaichi, a former communications minister who has pledged to continue Abe's economic reforms if she wins with her program of "New Abenomics." Shigeru Ishiba, a former defence minister and LDP secretary-general, met with Toshihiro Nikai, the current LDP secretary-general who also wields immense power, on Sept. 4 to seek his factional support. Ishiba ran against Suga in the last election. Suga, 72, had said he would dump Nikai, 82, from the key executive post to help freshen up the party's image.
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Generational divide clashes with factions in Japan's ruling party

Factional politics that have long dominated Japan's ruling party may be coming to an end as the swelling ranks of relatively new members look at public opinion polls rather than allegiances to choose their next leader. Several candidates are vying to be the successor to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, which presumably will also mean a move to the prime minister's office given the LDP's strength in the lower house. Former party policy Chief Fumio Kishida has already thrown his hat in the ring, while administrative reform minister Taro Kono has decided to run and former internal affairs minister Sanae Takaichi also intends to join the race. Since the LDP's return to power in 2012, the old guard has called the shots. This group includes Abe, who was prime minister for over seven years; his close ally Aso, who has remained in the deputy prime minister post; Suga, who served as Abe's chief cabinet secretary before becoming prime minister; and Nikai and other party heavyweights. The average age of the 276 LDP lower house members is 59, and those under 60 make up almost half. Almost a fifth do not belong to a faction.
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Russia to tighten grip on islands claimed by Japan with economic zone

Russia will grant extensive tax breaks to a chain of Pacific islands to lure international investment, President Vladimir Putin said Sep 03, a move that would include the Northern Territories off Japan's Hokkaido which the Soviet Union invaded in the waning days of World War II. Companies will be exempt from profit, property, land and transport taxes for 10 years and will pay reduced insurance premiums across the Kurils, Putin told the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, referring to the chain of islands that include the Northern Territories. Japan's position is that the Northern Territories are an inherent part of its territory and have never been held by a foreign country. Tax breaks and other incentives are already available in parts of the Kurils to promote economic growth in the region. But the new proposal goes one step further by establishing a free customs zone across the islands and exempting companies from the value-added tax."Foreign investors will also be able to use these tax, customs and administrative benefits, not just domestic companies," Putin said. "This certainly applies to our neighbours, including our Japanese partners."Putin also decried the countries lack of a bilateral peace treaty as nonsense, striking an unusually conciliatory tone toward Tokyo.
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Myanmar parallel government to challenge regime with $700m budget

Myanmar's shadow National Unity Government has stepped up its revenue generation and fundraising efforts to channel hundreds of millions of dollars into opposing the military regime that seized power on Feb. 1. It is also tapping international supporters, including wealthy overseas Burmese, and lobbying to cut funding flows to the military regime, known as the State Administration Council, while pressing foreign investors to divest from military-linked businesses. The NUG is preparing its first budget, which will amount to about $700 million and will be unveiled in the coming weeks, according to the group's economic advisers. The funds, held mainly in accounts outside the country, will support humanitarian relief, COVID-19 vaccinations and striking workers inside Myanmar, as well as the NUG's operations at home and abroad. Although not directly comparable, the country's parliament last August passed a national budget of 34.1 trillion kyat ($20.7 billion) for the fiscal year through September this year. The group is also "making progress" in efforts to retrieve $1 billion of Myanmar's foreign reserves that were frozen by the U.S. after the military takeover.
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Israel agrees to ‘strengthen’ Palestinian economy in first top-level talks since 2010 held after PM Bennett’s return from US

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas met late on Aug 29 in the first such top-level talks in over a decade, with Israel agreeing to work toward boosting the crumbling PA economy. The two got together just hours after Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett returned from Washington, where US President Joe Biden, who is a strong supporter of the two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, asked him to take steps “to improve the lives of Palestinians and support greater economic opportunities for them.” The Israeli defence minister in his tweet early on Aug 30 revealed that security-policy, civilian and economic issues were on the agenda. “I told Chairman Abbas that Israel seeks to take measures that will strengthen the PA’s economy,” Gantz wrote. He didn’t name the exact steps that the Jewish State was planning to make but added that the sides agreed to continue with the communications. The last time high-ranking Israeli and Palestinian officials held such a face-to-face meeting was in 2010, shortly after then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu started his second term in office. After that, even phone calls became rare as bilateral relations deteriorated and the peace process between the sides stalled.
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Climate change casts shadow on Bhutan with glacial lakes at risk

High up in the mountain regions bordering Tibet the inhabitants of Laya, one of the highest settlements in the Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, are still coming to terms with the death of 10 of its community members who were killed in a mudslide in one of the worst tragedies to hit the highlands. Members of the nomadic community were deep in the mountains, a day's walk from their village, collecting Cordyceps, the highly valued wild medicinal fungus. In the middle of June, the area received 23mm of rainfall, almost twice that of the same time last year, according to data gathered by the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) in Thimphu. Experts with the National Environment Commission (NEC), Bhutan's lead environment agency, believe the slide was triggered by an extreme weather event, a direct result of climate change. "Extreme weather events have intensified, and effects of climate change are clearly visible in the high Himalayan regions," said Tshering Tashi, the commission's air and climate division chief.
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Sudan’s democratic transition at a crossroads

Two years ago, mass protests in Sudan led to the removal of dictator Omar al-Bashir and the establishment of a part-military, part-civilian transitional government. Some six months into Abdalla Hamdok’s premiership, the COVID-19 pandemic hit and Sudan has been plunged into recession ever since. As poverty rates shot up, the civilian wing of the government found itself unable to respond effectively to this global public health emergency. The government’s Sisyphean task to stabilise the country has been made even more difficult by a series of foreign relations crises. Right now, the country is caught up in the tug of war between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and is simultaneously dealing with the fallout from the unrest in Tigray. Nominal peace with Israel, in exchange for the removal from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list, has seen Sudan pay a heavy price. In the meantime, the country has faced a myriad of domestic crises – floods, locusts and conflicts as well as many obstacles created by a tenaciously recalcitrant security sector. However, the transition government cannot ignore domestic needs and crises to focus on pursuing international recognition.
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Turkey and UAE rein in dispute that fuelled conflict and hurt economy

A truce between bitter regional rivals Turkey and the United Arab Emirates has calmed tensions that fuelled conflicts including Libya's war, officials and diplomats say, after years of animosity and insults. But with political differences still running deep, the two countries are expected to focus on building economic ties and de-escalating, rather than resolving, an ideological rift that has drawn a fault-line through the Middle East. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and the UAE's de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, spoke by phone last week following contacts between intelligence and government officials. Erdogan, who a year ago said Turkey could cut diplomatic relations with Abu Dhabi after it set up ties with Israel, also discussed UAE investment in Turkey with Abu Dhabi's national security adviser."The UAE is interested in exploring prospects of reinforcing ties," an Emirati official said, pointing to trade and investment opportunities in transportation, health and energy. The talks follow earlier efforts by Turkey to ease tensions with UAE allies Saudi Arabia and Egypt, with a delegation from Cairo due in Ankara on Aug 31.
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Medical

New Covid variant, known as ‘Mu’, under close WHO scrutiny due to concerns over its vaccine resistance

The World Health Organization (WHO) has reclassified the ‘Mu’ Covid strain, also known as B.1.621, as a “variant of interest,” amid concerns that its mutations indicate a potential risk of resistance to existing vaccines. The WHO announced the classification in the organization’s weekly pandemic bulletin on Aug 31, several months after the Mu strain was first identified in Colombia. “The Mu variant has a constellation of mutations that indicate potential properties of immune escape,” the WHO said, adding that “preliminary data showed it has the same behaviour as the Beta variant.” The decision to monitor the Mu strain comes amid concern from the WHO about the potential risk of resistance to vaccines posed by new mutations, as case numbers begin to rise globally in countries that have relaxed Covid restrictions. The addition of the Mu strain to the list of variants of interest marks the first time a mutated version of the virus has been added to the list since June, when the Lambda mutation – first detected in Peru – was included among those being monitored by the WHO.
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Rich countries to have 1.2bn surplus COVID vaccine doses

Wealthy countries could potentially have a surplus of more than one billion COVID-19 vaccine doses available by the end of the year that are not designated as donations to poorer nations, according to a new analysis Vaccine stock in Western countries has reached 500 million doses this month, with 360 million not earmarked for donations, according to new research by data analytics firm Airfinity. By the end of the year, these countries will have a potential of 1.2 billion surplus vaccine shots, with the overwhelming majority – 1.06 billion – not marked for donations, it said. The full report, which focuses on the available supply of vaccines in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada and Japan, will be published on September 7.Vaccine inequality has been denounced by many prominent health figures and officials. COVAX, the UN-backed global vaccine-sharing scheme, had initially aimed to provide two billion vaccine doses to people in 190 countries this year – including 92 lower-income countries – ensuring at least 20 percent of populations are vaccinated. However, the wealthy countries’ deals with vaccine manufacturers have limited the vaccines available to COVAX and led to vaccine hoarding.
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Saudi Arabia Now Has The World’s Toughest Vaccine Rules

A security guard stands at the entrance to every mall in Saudi Arabia’s capital, ready for a pandemic routine shoppers are getting used to: proving their vaccination status on a government phone app that tracks their location at all times. A dystopia for opponents of vaccine requirements from the United States to France is already a reality in Saudi Arabia, which enacted what amount to some of the strictest immunization rules in the world on August 1. As the highly contagious Delta variant of Covid-19 sends other countries back into lockdown, officials in the world’s largest crude exporter are counting on a strategy that makes vaccination all-but mandatory to keep their economy open. That’s made the nation of 35 million a test case in what happens when people who are reluctant to get inoculated are pushed into a corner.So far, the policy’s working; vaccine uptake has soared since the rules were announced. Mandatory vaccination has become a heated topic around the world as Covid-19 cases surge anew, sparking legal debates and protests as employers and governments tighten requirements.
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