Op Sindoor: Time to Hit the Refresh Button

While the military aspects of Op Sindoor have been discussed, the examination of the diplomatic fallout of Op Sindoor is just beginning. There were unintended consequences of Op Sindoor.

In an unprecedented diplomatic move, India sent seven high-level delegations of members of parliament to over 30 countries to explain India’s rationale behind Op Sindoor, and draw international attention to Pakistan’s continued policy of supporting terrorism and isolating it internationally.

While dispatching delegations was a positive diplomatic step, it is difficult to gauge at this point the impact of such an exercise. Only time will tell to what extent will these countries extend support to India when it takes the fight against Pakistan on terrorism to global platforms. Some members of the delegations have rightly observed that sporadic, one-off efforts are not enough. Continuous engagement involving diplomats and experts will be required. It has also been observed that no delegation was sent to the neighbouring countries, an inexplicable omission.

A sober and objective analysis of the international environment post Op Sindoor is needed. An analysis of the official statements issued by various countries is instructive. It offers lessons for the future. A few points can be flagged.

1. While India can take satisfaction from the fact that the entire world condemned the Pahalgam terror attacks and stood with India, equally, no country called out Pakistan despite the well documented record of its support for terrorism. Some countries even supported Pakistan’s call for an independent, neutral inquiry into Pahalgam terror attacks. We must ponder why was this the case. The explanation is obvious. The countries put their national interest above terrorism. This is the reason why the draft international convention on terrorism that India has been advocating has not seen the light of the day. Strategic considerations far outweigh any moral outrage. Nations are not on the same page when it comes to terrorism.
2. When Operation Sindoor began, the international community urged India and Pakistan to exercise restraint and de-escalate. Thus, India and Pakistan were hyphenated. The reality is that any conflict between India and Pakistan, the two nuclear-armed countries, is bound to raise the concern of the international community. Urging restraint is the default response of the international community.
3. While India used the occasion to draw the attention of the international community to Pakistan’s role in supporting terrorism, Pakistan got the opportunity to internationalise the Kashmir question. As India put the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance, Pakistan started projecting Indian action as a unilateral violation of a World Bank mediated agreement. Pakistan will use the next one and half years of its membership of the UN Security Council to internationalise the Kashmir question and also blunt India’s efforts to link Pakistan with terrorism. That is a challenge Indian diplomacy will have to face.
4. There is another hyphenation that India should be worried about, the one between China and Pakistan. Pakistan used Chinese weapons and equipment freely during the recent conflagration. Both countries had an unexpected opportunity to assess how the Chinese weapon systems performed during an actual conflict. India should be concerned that China-Pakistan defence cooperation is likely to be cemented further. Pakistan can count on China’s full diplomatic support on the international fora.
5. Despite Indian denials, President Trump’s repeated efforts to take credit for bringing about a “ceasefire” between India and Pakistan, no matter how disingenuous these are, are likely to be taken at face value by many countries. Surprisingly, even Russia seems to have taken that position as evident in President Putin’s advisor Ushakov’s readout of the Trump-Putin phone call recently. Trump has hyphenated India with Pakistan and also raised the Jammu and Kashmir question. India has a deep relationship with the US which it cannot afford to see being derailed. Navigating the Indo-US relationship in the backdrop of Trump’s self-serving statements will be a challenge.
6. Russia is an important strategic partner for India. President Putin stood with Prime Minister Modi during the conflict although the statements issued by the Russian Foreign Office tended to equate India with Pakistan. Russia will be closely watching India’s stands on the Russia-Ukraine war, on which India has so far been neutral. India will have to ensure that India-Russia strategic relationship remains intact and strong.
7. India will have to study what impact Sindoor is going to have on India-China relations and how it can register its concerns with China on the use of Chinese equipment against India In a conflict. China is interested in exploiting the Indian market. India has so far resisted this. Does India have leverage with China vis a vis Pakistan? How can we create such leverage?
8. Narrative building for global audiences is an inseparable part of the grey zone conflict in which India is presently embroiled in. India needs to improve its outreach to the global media which shapes international opinion and social media where disinformation is used as a weapon. Pakistan seems to have had an edge in this regard. Pakistan’s disinformation seems to have been lapped up by global media more than India’s measured briefings. We must look for reasons why this happened. India needs to vastly improve its strategic communication. This will have to be a continuous and professional effort.
9. Pakistan is a tense terror sponsoring state and a tottering economy. Yet the international funding institutions like the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have not hesitated to bail out the country at a time when it was involved in a conflict over terrorism with India. A few years ago, Pakistan was let out of the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF’s) grey list. India needs to chalk out a how well thought out diplomatic plan to impress the international lending institutions not to be a party to supporting a terror-sponsoring state.

India has spent the last few years building its international image and stature. It has built several significant strategic partnerships. It is the fourth largest economy in the world and a significant military power. It has also shown the ability to use force in a calibrated manner when required. Now it needs to work towards the far more difficult task of ensuring that it is able to deal with a comprehensive and formidable China-Pakistan strategic combination and navigate the complexity of international politics in a ‘Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous’ (VUCA) world. This will require, quiet, purposeful and deft diplomacy backed by the significant economic military and technological strengths. Op Sindoor is a chance to refresh our diplomacy.

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